Octopus Overlords

Austin wrote:USA! USA!

Edit: And if you want to use my past hands I have no issue with that. I'm here for the learning; for other's and my own.

I figured you'd like seeing that. No where to go but up!

I may take advantage of your offer, but certainly not until you get knocked out of or win the tournament.

~Neal

Feel free to use me as an example. I'll be curious to hear your hypothesis about the ratio of busted out players at above average hand receivers.

Glad to see that my cards were as poor as they seemed, relatively.

The Meal wrote:As far as what the percentages mean... higher means better hole cards. Think of 100% as completely average hole cards. I can explain what cards are normalized to best by way of examples, but I'd like to use someone who was actually in the tournament as my example. So if you're someone who's busted out, and don't have a problem with me revealing your holdings while you were in the tournament, speak up, and I'll use you as my example.

LordMortis gave me the green light for revealing his hole cards, and so I'm off to the races.

On that list (linked, above), you can see that he held a rating of 105.8% Where does 105.8% come from?

Well, on HAND002, LM found himself on Table Hachem. At that table he had 8 opponents, and held :7c:. I ran those two cards through Poker Stove to determine that were they held to see the entire 5-card board, and were they up against 8 other random hands also seeing the entire 5-card board, that they'd have a 9.2% chance of winning in a showdown.

9.2%*(8+1)/1^2 = 82.8% So after his first hand, he'd have held an 82.8% rating. (He got better hands after that.)

Hand # | Cards | # Opponents | % to win that hand | Overall percentage so far
HAND002 :7c: 8 09.2% 082.8%
HAND009 :Qh: 8 16.9%
HAND013 :4h: 8 11.0%
HAND016 :7s: 8 09.6%
HAND020 :2c: 8 05.4% 093.8%
HAND022 :3s: 8 07.5%
HAND027 :2s: 8 13.0%
HAND028 :Jh: 8 19.3%
HAND031 :3c: 8 07.2%
HAND035 :3s: 8 10.8% 099.0%
HAND041 :Jh: 8 15.6%
HAND044 :6c: 8 08.7%
HAND050 :3s: 7 11.9%
HAND053 :Jd: 7 17.3%
HAND061 :5s: 7 09.7% 101.6%
HAND066 :6s: 7 10.7%
HAND070 :Th: 7 16.3%
HAND076 :Td: 9 13.1%
HAND080 :3h: 9 06.9%
HAND082 :6s: 9 07.6% 101.4%
HAND086 :Jc: 8 21.7% 105.8%

Pay close attention to the # of opponents in the hand with LM, and how they affect his chance of winning a showdown (against all of them). KTo vs. 9 players is 13.1% to win, while KJs vs. 8 players is 19.3% (quite a jump). Also pay attention to the quality of hands he held (or just your gut feeling for those quality of hands) vs. how his overall score would jump or drop (I only updated the overall scores every 5th hand). You can see he started out slowly, but for the most part the law of averages brought up his hands to approach some middle value (and then those fateful pocket jacks really gave his score a big jump on the last hand).

One can also get a good feel for just how often "good" cards arrive. In 21 hands, LM had one pocket pair, 0 suited connectors, 4 unsuited connectors 65o+ (I'm not counting the 43o he got twice, as in my book that's not an unsuited connector), two "broadway cards" (T or higher) 7 times (which is why his average is above 100%) 1 of which was suited, and but one ace.

~Neal

LordMortis wrote:I'll be curious to hear your hypothesis about the ratio of busted out players at above average hand receivers.

It's nothing more advanced than you've got to hold decent-seeming cards to put a lot of chips at risk (unless you're a incurable bluffer). In hold 'em it's very rare to end up in a 4.5-to-1 or 5-to-1 situation preflop against your opponent — more typical is to be in a 60%-40% situation. Since it's so tough to have your opponent dominated preflop, cards that tend to look good (such as :Qc:) tend to cause one to put lots of chips in the pot before the flop — and 2/3rds of the time a flop isn't going to help AQo out. But since the pot is already large, and since this is big-bet poker, the post-flop betting is going to be at elevated levels. If you were up against :Jc: and that person happend to catch an innocent-looking nine on the flop, the AQ is way behind, but may still continue to place or call large bets in post-flop action.

It takes a disciplined player to *not* get into trouble when getting dealt high cards, especially at tables where 50% of the participants regularly see the flop.

This may seem to be a simple observation, but this is especially relevant to local cash games in the casinos. Out here, the highest (legal) cash game allowed is $2-$5 spread limit (which I talked about the mechanics at the top of this blog entry). Very frequently does >50% of the table see the flop in those games, in my experience. One can win those games by playing tight, BUT ONLY if they also play smart based on the flops that come down. It's pretty hard to win low-limit non-big-bet poker if you've got a bad habit of bluffing. (Of course one still has to bluff an appropriate amount based on one's opponents' tendencies, it's just that this frequency changes radically based on the nature of the game.)

Last time I was in this game, it was exceptionally loose, and despite my playing fewer pots (with better cards) than my opponents, I lost a significant amount of money. The experience here in the MTT gives me some small inkling as to why this may be the case.

Of course spread-limit != big-bet hold 'em, so it's only slightly applicable. But I think it helps point me in the right direction.

~Neal

Out-of-Town-Alert:

I'll be back this afternoon/evening to take care of the tables that are currently waiting for me, but then I'm out of town for a week, to return next Wednesday evening/Thursday morning.

Enjoy your break,
~Neal

The Meal wrote:Out-of-Town-Alert:

I'll be back this afternoon/evening to take care of the tables that are currently waiting for me,

Alternatively, I'll come home this evening and let everyone know that I *won't* be taking care of the tables before my trip. Ape-ologies.

On the other hand, I did go play a bit of brick-and-mortar hold 'em today. I spent my free moments (before packing and going to be EARLY) writing up the day in my blog (www link below my post).

~Neal

Alright, we're back in town. I don't know that I'm going to have a lot of forum time in the next few days, but since everyone's been sitting tight successfully so far, I don't think I'm thowing too large of a monkey wrench in the prolonged delay. I can't commit to getting this fully back on track until Monday, but if I do get some sit-down-to-OO time between now and then I may try to get some of the tables back up and running.

Thanks, everyone, for understanding.

~Neal

Welcome back!

The Meal wrote:Thanks, everyone, for understanding.

~Neal

Welcome back! I've already passed the initial withdrawal stages so a couple more days won't make a difference.

Welcome back!

Thanks gang. Heh, new development. I just took a temporary position with a company (as a technical writer) which begins on Monday. It's not much of a job from the sounds of things, but it helps bail a friend out of a tight position...

So now I've got extra incentive to get all plates back spinning up on their sticks this weekend. Not tonight (friends in town partying for Guinness Weekend), not tomorrow morning (recovery from Guinness Weekend's first evening), not tomorrow afternoon (preparring for hosting friends at our place tomorrow night), not tomorrow evening (hosting friends at our place), not Sunday morning (cleaning up after hosting friends), but hopefully I can get some responsibility-free time on Sunday that isn't invested in front of the NFL games I missed out on last weekend.

~Neal

take your time and welcome back.

Update:

I *am* taking my time, but not by choice. Sunday should have seen me go to the hospital, but by sheer stubborness I avoided that fate. (Not much of a story, I was out of asthma medicine after some poor planning/laziness on my part, and my body doesn't deal well without my Advair.) Gasping for breath didn't put me much in the mood for anything even partially cerebral. Today was a full day of work followed by an evening in front of the tube.

Chances are good that I'll get things ratcheted back up during this week, but again at my own pace (and in a spot most appropriate for my priorities). I wouldn't be too surprised if I didn't get all four tables back up and running on the same evening, so hopefully I don't create any hard feelings.

Things will progress more slowly while I maintain employment. That's the closest thing to a promise that I can give to you fine folks at this point.

Continued thanks,
~Neal

Who knew technical writing would lead to asthma problems?

/jk

I hope you are ok, and that the job goes well. Take care of yourself first!

Sorry for the delay. (These will continue unabated as my previously-available-for-OO slots in my calendar have filled up.) This last weekend it was due to a camping weekend up in the mountains (thanks ChrisGrenard), which began *much earlier* than I anticipated.

I'd estimate a 10% chance that I'll get to the tables tonight, and a similar number for Tuesday evening. The best bet for me getting things squared up in the next 36 hours will be the wee hours of Tuesday morning, but even that I only estimate at 25%. Unless something comes up (and it always could), Wednesday night is the closest thing that one could plan on my return.

When it rains, it pours...

~Neal

Hey-- you've gotta play the hand you're dealt!

Yeah. And while my intention was to get things out on Wednesday evening, that obviously didn't happen. I can't commit to much of a schedule in the weeks ahead, but I do intend to keep this going as much as I can. Apologies to those who are frustrated by what promise to be frequent lapses and delays.

~Neal

The Meal wrote:I can't commit to much of a schedule in the weeks ahead, but I do intend to keep this going as much as I can.

QFT. Saturday morning looks to be a good window of opportunity, with the possibility of Friday evening.

~Neal

Is this over, then?

The Mad Hatter wrote:Is this over, then?

I can't commit to it. I can, however, offer to set someone else up in the coordination role (slowly, unfortunately). Obviously it'd have to be someone who is currently not participating in the tournament. I know at one point LordMortis thought he may have the time and inclination to lend a hand, we'll have to see if he's interested in running the whole show.

If anyone else is interested, post here or shoot me a PM. I no longer log into the site every day (and there have been weeks where I haven't logged in, of late), but I'll do what I can to get someone else up and running, were such an interested party to exist.

~Neal

The Meal wrote:If you do want to get out, my strong preference is for you to find someone else to assume your deck and position in the tournament. The only stipulation is that they need to be ineligible for the MTT (and not be banned from OO)....

I much prefer this to someone trying to enact an "I'm going to bust out!" strategy which may adversely affect the remaining participants.

~Neal

Modified for a better fit.

Grundbegriff wrote:

The Meal wrote:If you do want to get out, my strong preference is for you to find someone else to assume your deck and position in the tournament. The only stipulation is that they need to be ineligible for the MTT (and not be banned from OO)....

I much prefer this to someone trying to enact an "I'm going to bust out!" strategy which may adversely affect the remaining participants.

~Neal

Modified for a better fit.

I asked a simple question. I implied no criticism of the Meal, whose efforts I’m sure everyone here appreciates. I know you love to be seen as the clever one, but I’m not seeing the better fit here.

The Mad Hatter wrote:I asked a simple question. I implied no criticism of the Meal, whose efforts I’m sure everyone here appreciates. I know you love to be seen as the clever one, but I’m not seeing the better fit here.

I don't know what you're on about, but my remix of The Meal's comments to me were not intended to be seen as clever and were in no way related to you or your remarks.

I was merely encouraging The Meal to find a replacement for himself.

Try chai. It's soothing.

Oh. Well, sorry then.

The Mad Hatter wrote:Oh. Well, sorry then.

That's OK. I know you love to be seen as the cranky, paranoid one.

Grundbegriff wrote:

The Mad Hatter wrote:Oh. Well, sorry then.

That's OK. I know you love to be seen as the cranky, paranoid one.

They are all out to get me, you know.

The Mad Hatter wrote:

Grundbegriff wrote:

The Mad Hatter wrote:Oh. Well, sorry then.

That's OK. I know you love to be seen as the cranky, paranoid one.

They are all out to get me, you know.

Just because you are paranoid does not mean they are not out to get you.

Grundbegriff wrote:I was merely encouraging The Meal to find a replacement for himself.

Yep, that's the goal. Hopefully someone will step up.

~Neal

The Meal wrote:

The Mad Hatter wrote:Is this over, then?

I can't commit to it. I can, however, offer to set someone else up in the coordination role (slowly, unfortunately). Obviously it'd have to be someone who is currently not participating in the tournament. I know at one point LordMortis thought he may have the time and inclination to lend a hand, we'll have to see if he's interested in running the whole show.

If anyone else is interested, post here or shoot me a PM. I no longer log into the site every day (and there have been weeks where I haven't logged in, of late), but I'll do what I can to get someone else up and running, were such an interested party to exist.

~Neal

I can commit to it in small. What I can do is shuffle card and send myself PMs to I can get new deals and such going.

I can't set up the continuing blinds.

How about this Neal? I'll be the dealer and you be the taking care of things guy. I can even send you the hands and such. If you'd have PMed me abou this awhile ago I would stepped up then. In short I wouldn't take over, so much as just become a very active right hand man.

I can check in just about every day though I'm often in total absence on the weekends.

I don't think that is a significant upgrade. Maybe we can find another person to be the coordinator for whom you run the day-to-day show. The spreadsheet does all the work regarding the blinds, and I'd be around (enough) to help someone through the difficulties associated with running it.

~Neal

If we want to work something out, just let me know by PM. I might go weeks without checking this thread at the moment. My work has also picked up and that's where I do most of my OO time. As work gets more busy my surfing becomes more selective.

Seems like we lost a lot of these people in the years since Meal ran this endeavor.