Fellowship of the Ring (WW) - Conclusion

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed May 12, 2010 3:45 pm

theohall wrote:If Brendan passes the Ring to me during Journey 7, we lose. I cannot receive the Ring again until Chapter 7 has already started.
The issue at hand is Gollum. He will most likely try to steal the Ring from you during Journey 7.
It is up to Brendan to pick someone he feels is a Hobbit.

If Scoop confirms that he gave the ring to theohall, and if theohall confirms that he gave the ring to Brendan, and if the Fellowship has continually possessed the ring (as the mornings' notices show), then Newcastle cannot possibly have the ring.

Confused gambit, Newc?

Brendan · Post by **Brendan** » Wed May 12, 2010 3:45 pm

Well, that conundrum is easily cleared up by reading theohall's earlier post.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed May 12, 2010 3:45 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Scoop20906 wrote:4. This new hobbit can choose to either pass the ring to me or to theohall or to someone new. If he passes it to Theohall, then we scout theohall and send him scouting. Of course, I would prefer he passes it to someone new but thats not my decision.
Just to be sure this is clear: today's Scouting is the final Scouting. Either we win tonight (by Brendan passing the ring to a virgin candidate) or we win tomorrow (by Frodo passing the ring to any Hobbit or to Gollum).

Passing the ring to theohall, corrupting him, and then scouting him tomorrow isn't an option; there is no tomorrow other than the Crack o' Doom.

(Reinforcing theohall's point here.)

Which is also why we do not Scout Isgrimnur. We Scout whomever we think is Gollum. Scouting Gollum guarantees a Fellowship victory, because Frodo can then receive Ring without fear of theft, and pass it to myself or Brendan at the Crack of Doom to secure the victory.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed May 12, 2010 3:46 pm

Newcastle

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed May 12, 2010 3:47 pm

You had better not be Gollum, Isgrimnur.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed May 12, 2010 3:51 pm

theohall wrote:Giving the Ring to Frodo right now probably results in Gollum stealing the Ring and Gollum winning.

Possibly so.

Here is a novel idea - why Scout Isgrimnur? We know he cannot be Gollum.

We know that? We've been inferring that Isgrimnur is what he says he is. I'm not aware of a good reason to think otherwise. But do we know he cannot be Gollum? I don't think anything proves that.

Even so, if we scout Isgrimnur, it will be to make a safe kill and leave the maximum number of viable candidates for the end. If we try to scout Gollum and fail, we narrow the circle of possible recipients.

Ordinarily, I'd say that we should play it safe and nuke Isgrimnur. But with Newcastle counterclaiming Brendan over the ring, you may have a point about eliminating the amphibian threat!

Three known Hobbits and one known FreeP: theohall, Brendan, Scoop, Isgrimnur. None can be Gollum.

Isgrimnur is not a confirmed Freep. He's a professed Freep. He could still be Gollum. Remember-- he did suggest that, as a trick move, we give the ring to him on the final night, remember? Not proof that he's Gollum, but pretty weird.

Scouting Isgrimnur guarantees Gollum a chance to win.

Please explain how you're sure that Isgrimnur is not Gollum.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed May 12, 2010 3:53 pm

Do I look like a frog-faced freak to you? Wait, don't answer that.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed May 12, 2010 3:53 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
theohall wrote:Giving the Ring to Frodo right now probably results in Gollum stealing the Ring and Gollum winning.
Possibly so.

Here is a novel idea - why Scout Isgrimnur? We know he cannot be Gollum.
We know that? We've been inferring that Isgrimnur is what he says he is. I'm not aware of a good reason to think otherwise. But do we know he cannot be Gollum? I don't think anything proves that.

Even so, if we scout Isgrimnur, it will be to make a safe kill and leave the maximum number of viable candidates for the end. If we try to scout Gollum and fail, we narrow the circle of possible recipients.

Ordinarily, I'd say that we should play it safe and nuke Isgrimnur. But with Newcastle counterclaiming Brendan over the ring, you may have a point about eliminating the amphibian threat!

Three known Hobbits and one known FreeP: theohall, Brendan, Scoop, Isgrimnur. None can be Gollum.
Isgrimnur is not a confirmed Freep. He's a professed Freep. He could still be Gollum. Remember-- he did suggest that, as a trick move, we give the ring to him on the final night, remember? Not proof that he's Gollum, but pretty weird.

Scouting Isgrimnur guarantees Gollum a chance to win.
Please explain how you're sure that Isgrimnur is not Gollum.

I thought about all that while you were typing as the prior post indicates.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed May 12, 2010 3:54 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:Isgrimnur is not a confirmed Freep. He's a professed Freep. He could still be Gollum. Remember-- he did suggest that, as a trick move, we give the ring to him on the final night, remember? Not proof that he's Gollum, but pretty weird.

Isn't that a Fellowship win anyway? A finger-biting, swan-diving, lava-breathing win for the Fellowship?

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed May 12, 2010 3:55 pm

I thought about all that while you were typing as the prior post indicates.

OK then!

As far as I know, there is no line of reasoning that confirms Isgrimnur's claim. He rests in probabilities, and I'm inclined to believe him, but he's not at all proven.

But that's no longer as interesting a fact as it once was, in light of what Newcastle just did. What are we to make of that?

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed May 12, 2010 3:56 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Isgrimnur is not a confirmed Freep. He's a professed Freep. He could still be Gollum. Remember-- he did suggest that, as a trick move, we give the ring to him on the final night, remember? Not proof that he's Gollum, but pretty weird.
Isn't that a Fellowship win anyway? A finger-biting, swan-diving, lava-breathing win for the Fellowship?

Not if you're Gollum.

If you're Gollum, it's only a win if Frodo lobs it to you tomorrow Day.

If someone gives the ring to Gollum tonight, we're toast.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed May 12, 2010 3:57 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:Isgrimnur is not a confirmed Freep. He's a professed Freep. He could still be Gollum. Remember-- he did suggest that, as a trick move, we give the ring to him on the final night, remember? Not proof that he's Gollum, but pretty weird.

I think he was referring to me tossing him the Ring during Journey 6 and we would Scout him in Chapter 6 giving the Ring back to Frodo - even if he was joking.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed May 12, 2010 3:58 pm

Newcastle wrote:
Brendan wrote:I think it was both a mistake to reveal that you'd passed me the ring, and, in fact, a mistake to reveal that the ring wasn't with Frodo at all.
Uhm, my dear chap, I got the ring. Unless theo gave me a fancy looking fake

/looks at his ring closely

Making this play is not something Gollum would do, since

(a) Gollum wants to seduce someone into giving him the Ring, and
(b) This song and dance, known with certainty to be false, would never promote goal (a).

Meanwhile, no Hobbit would say that, so Newcastle must be one of the other Evils: Witch-King (as I've been suggesting) or Boromir. N'est-ce pas?

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed May 12, 2010 3:59 pm

I think Newcastle was joking. At least that is how I read his post.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed May 12, 2010 4:00 pm

theohall wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Isgrimnur is not a confirmed Freep. He's a professed Freep. He could still be Gollum. Remember-- he did suggest that, as a trick move, we give the ring to him on the final night, remember? Not proof that he's Gollum, but pretty weird.
I think he was referring to me tossing him the Ring during Journey 6 and we would Scout him in Chapter 6 giving the Ring back to Frodo - even if he was joking.

OK. That's marginally less weird, but still weird.

If we posit that Isgrimnur is actually the Freep he says he is, and if (as seems apparent), Newcastle is either the WK or Boromir, then Gollum is a member of {stessier, Unagi}.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed May 12, 2010 4:01 pm

theohall wrote:I think Newcastle was joking. At least that is how I read his post.

Sort of like yelling "bomb!" on an airplane? Ha ha ha.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed May 12, 2010 4:04 pm

I would like to hear from the rest of the crowd to help Brendan make his decision and give us different Scouting options.

BTW, I did think about passing the Ring to Isgrimnur and us then Scouting him. The issue with the plan was Frodo would only have one known Hobbit, could not pass to him, and would have to pass to someone to prevent a Gollum theft (assuming Isgrimnur was not Gollum). Having two of us makes the end-game easier as long as we can counter-act Gollum.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed May 12, 2010 4:04 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
theohall wrote:I think Newcastle was joking. At least that is how I read his post.
Sort of like yelling "bomb!" on an airplane? Ha ha ha.

the ring is with the fellowship correct? Does it matter if it resides with myself or Brendan?

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed May 12, 2010 4:05 pm

I would be fine with scouting stessier or Unagi. First choice would be stessier.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed May 12, 2010 4:06 pm

Newcastle wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
theohall wrote:I think Newcastle was joking. At least that is how I read his post.
Sort of like yelling "bomb!" on an airplane? Ha ha ha.
the ring is with the fellowship correct? Does it matter if it resides with myself or Brendan?

To Scoop20906, most definitely.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed May 12, 2010 4:13 pm

Newcastle wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
theohall wrote:I think Newcastle was joking. At least that is how I read his post.
Sort of like yelling "bomb!" on an airplane? Ha ha ha.
the ring is with the fellowship correct? Does it matter if it resides with myself or Brendan?

Yes, given the fact that trusted-Scoop and trusted-theohall have said that it's with Brendan.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed May 12, 2010 4:18 pm

Everyone knows not to give the Ring to Isgrimnur, so Isgrimnur is effectively scouted in principle, if not in practice.

Since they name suspects as a block, which looks follow-the-leaderish to me, I'd be ok with Scouting any of {stessier, Unagi, Newcastle} in that order of preference.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Wed May 12, 2010 4:27 pm

Ok here's the deal. If Gollum steals the Ring from Scoop tonight, Gollum wins. If whoever is holding the Ring isn't Scoop and Holds Onto It, evil wins. If whoever has the Ring passes it to a Hobbit that hasn't held it yet, Fellowship Wins. So we are down to a 'blind' pass... With 2 freep that BECOME evil if they get it, and Evil wins. What we really need here is to SCOUT Gollum. Then we can toss it to Scoop and he can toss it back tomorrow to whoever he threw it to first. If nobody plans on tossing the Ring to Isgrim, he's NOT who we need to get rid off. This is the Last Act, people.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed May 12, 2010 4:30 pm

Chaosraven wrote:Ok here's the deal. If Gollum steals the Ring from Scoop tonight, Gollum wins. If whoever is holding the Ring isn't Scoop and Holds Onto It, evil wins. If whoever has the Ring passes it to a Hobbit that hasn't held it yet, Fellowship Wins. So we are down to a 'blind' pass... With 2 freep that BECOME evil if they get it, and Evil wins. What we really need here is to SCOUT Gollum. Then we can toss it to Scoop and he can toss it back tomorrow to whoever he threw it to first. If nobody plans on tossing the Ring to Isgrim, he's NOT who we need to get rid off. This is the Last Act, people.

Yep... we had that part figured out.

Who is your Gollum suspect?

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Wed May 12, 2010 4:30 pm

If you have the Ring and it wasn't Scoop who passed it to you, you MUST NOT give it back to that person tonight. Is everybody clear on that?

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed May 12, 2010 4:31 pm

agreed, we need to figure out who golum is, he can throw the biggest monkey wrench in our plans.

Right now...tops suspects

stessier
grund

since i do agree that isg, is scouted in principle.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Wed May 12, 2010 4:35 pm

I'm captain obvious here because throughout this game, people are missing rules, misunderstanding how things work, and miscounting days/people/etc. From the earliest notes, I still figure Unagi as Original Evil, assumed WK, and stessier as Gollum. Unfortunately I'd put Grund in either of those as well. So for Gollum I pit it as either Grund or stessier.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed May 12, 2010 4:38 pm

Chaosraven wrote:If you have the Ring and it wasn't Scoop who passed it to you, you MUST NOT give it back to that person tonight. Is everybody clear on that?

To reinforce the point ad nauseam:

If we successfully scout Gollum today: Brendan passes the ring to Scoop tonight. Scoop passes the ring to theohall tomorrow. Victory.

If we fail to scout Gollum today: Brendan passes the ring to someone of his choosing other than theohall and Isgrimnur (either of which would lose the game), and probably someone other than Scoop (since Gollum is likely to check there).

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Wed May 12, 2010 4:39 pm

Scoop20906 wrote: withdrawal Isgrimnur

Discuss away.

Sorry. That came out the wrong way. I meant let us discuss things.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Wed May 12, 2010 4:51 pm

If the urukhai has been laying low til now, he faces the same problem Gollum does. Where's the ring? Or more specifically, where will it end up? Ringbearer passes it. Then the nasties do their thing. Witchking and all the minions in the world aren't going to affect this... There's no vote tomorrow and today there are Five of Us. Question is how many Hobbits have we tainted up til now? That's only an issue if we Don't Scout Gollum.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Wed May 12, 2010 4:55 pm

Didn't I say this was gonna be a hoot?

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed May 12, 2010 4:55 pm

I completely agree with Isgrimnur being a horrible lynch for the day. Yes...yes...

It all comes down to the Ring Toss. Miss a Hobbit and it's game over man! Filthy dirty stinking Hobbits. Horrible creatures holding on to My Precioussssss.

I'm Evil on everyone's list Whyssss? Why doesssss no one like Smeagol???, so I doubt I'm getting an errant toss tonight.

Guess this wasn't one of my best games Noesssss. No it wassssn't. Dirty Hobbits playing keep away with My Precious!

I concede. No! No! NO! MY PRECIOUS!!!!!!!!

stessier

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed May 12, 2010 4:55 pm

Two. Myself and Brendan.

Scoop held the Ring before he was captured and did not pass the Ring right away when he was released. This is why he was asking about Arcanis and protection. I was the first to receive the Ring from Frodo which Scoop can verify.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed May 12, 2010 5:07 pm

How're you feeling round about now, Brendan? Isn't this the first time where the entire Werewolf universe has hinged on your choice?

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Wed May 12, 2010 5:13 pm

theohall wrote:Two. Myself and Brendan.

Scoop held the Ring before he was captured and did not pass the Ring right away when he was released. This is why he was asking about Arcanis and protection. I was the first to receive the Ring from Frodo which Scoop can verify.

then in the event we don't scout Gollum here, there's two available hobbits. Let's deal with that later, as we don't want to offer any extra info to Gollum, though he really has no option other than trying to steal from scoop. And thank you for not giving it to me, cuz Sauron knows I WOULD HAVE BEEN TEMPTED TO JUST HOLD IT AND BECOME EVIL AND WIN MWAH HAHAHAHAHAHA ahem though that would have been very unsportsmanlike and gone down in the pr0ner record books

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed May 12, 2010 5:32 pm

stessier wrote:I completely agree with Isgrimnur being a horrible lynch for the day. Yes...yes...

It all comes down to the Ring Toss. Miss a Hobbit and it's game over man! Filthy dirty stinking Hobbits. Horrible creatures holding on to My Precioussssss.

I'm Evil on everyone's list Whyssss? Why doesssss no one like Smeagol???, so I doubt I'm getting an errant toss tonight.

Guess this wasn't one of my best games Noesssss. No it wassssn't. Dirty Hobbits playing keep away with My Precious!

I concede. No! No! NO! MY PRECIOUS!!!!!!!!

stessier

This cannot be that easy.

Lagom Lite · Post by **Lagom Lite** » Wed May 12, 2010 5:48 pm

VOTE COUNT

Against Newcastle (1): Isgrimnur
Against stessier (1): stessier

No vote registered: Unagi, theohall, Newcastle, Scoop20906, Grundbegriff, Chaosraven, Brendan

Majority is 5.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Wed May 12, 2010 5:59 pm

theohall wrote:
stessier wrote:I completely agree with Isgrimnur being a horrible lynch for the day. Yes...yes...

It all comes down to the Ring Toss. Miss a Hobbit and it's game over man! Filthy dirty stinking Hobbits. Horrible creatures holding on to My Precioussssss.

I'm Evil on everyone's list Whyssss? Why doesssss no one like Smeagol???, so I doubt I'm getting an errant toss tonight.

Guess this wasn't one of my best games Noesssss. No it wassssn't. Dirty Hobbits playing keep away with My Precious!

I concede. No! No! NO! MY PRECIOUS!!!!!!!!

stessier

This cannot be that easy.

heh maybe he wants to play bsg ?

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Wed May 12, 2010 6:01 pm

Oh shit, no wait. He's a servant throwing the chance to gollum to spite us

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Wed May 12, 2010 6:03 pm

Arrrgh dammit stessier, or is that what we're supposed to think?