WW- Bond Epilogue - The Davos Initiative

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Semaj
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Semaj »

Chaosraven wrote:Let's see, remus takes someone with him... Same number of people die that day, bond still has shot. Remus could have taken out Q or (random). 100% chance either way of taking out MI6 with explosion. Fast forward to Unagi shooting (random) player at some point. Chance of hitting MI6? X out of X+2. Unagi died because he was proven Bond. He could be here now instead of me, with 5 people to choose from, at 60% of shooting the wrong guy. My paranoid concern that day was Q as fake is Zao, offers PlayerX (remus) to draw out Bondshot. BOND SHOOTS MI6, zao(qnataga) is lynched, taking out another MI6 when he explodes, and spectre kills real Q who contests. Would have been good play for spectre.
Aye... that was my main worry. Say they nabbed Q... it's a amazing play. It's a bit paranoid, but thats how these games occasionally run. Then I get Grund and Remus leading bandwagons and making want to noogie them :)
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lagom Lite »

So it's two camps are forming? Lagom+Msteelers or Isgrimnur+Chaosraven basically?

You know where I stand on that. Yes, my early Chaosraven vote was stupid. Not because it's a vote for Chaosraven, but because it was too early, and apparently Spectreraven has decided to wield it as a sort of weapon against me now.

Wake me up when you've decided.
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lassr »

good grief, I'm getting a headache trying to make out Chaos' chaotic writing. Sure looks like you are trying to help...but are you?
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Semaj »

Lagom Lite wrote:So it's two camps are forming? Lagom+Msteelers or Isgrimnur+Chaosraven basically?

You know where I stand on that. Yes, my early Chaosraven vote was stupid. Not because it's a vote for Chaosraven, but because it was too early, and apparently Spectreraven has decided to wield it as a sort of weapon against me now.

Wake me up when you've decided.
is this really where you see the "camps" forming?

Hey Lassr, I'll ro-sham-bo you for who gets to lead us to doom by picking horribly.

Chaos... please rewrite that when you have a computer, the whole thing is hurting brains.
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 1 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lassr »

Lagom Lite wrote:
Lassr wrote:
Lagom Lite wrote:
Unagi wrote:So... No one wants to join me on msteelers for pretending to go to random.org for his vote?

I mean, seriously ask yourself... I know I've (we've) mused about doing it - but does anyone really give up their free will and hand their Day 1 choice over to random.org ?
Yeah, man. That's just weird stuff.

 msteelers 
 
I've used random.org for my vote on the 1st day and I was a good guys at the time.

Something about this post doesn't feel right though. Is it msteelers' use of random.org, is it Unagi pointing it out, or Lagom's quick jump on the vote?

 withdraw Qantaga 
 
-got nothing out of that vote.

let's try

 Lagom Lite 
 
Yeah yeah, go for the obvious. There's like, oh, twenty-two other agents wanting to kill me. Don't do it, you'll miss me!
making notes as I search the thread:

at the time he posted that last sentence I wondered if he was trying to drop a subtle hint that he was special. Now we know he is not. Evil making an attempt to stop a train from forming on him?
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 1 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lassr »

Lassr wrote:this is what I found interesting; you guys keep saying theohall didn't say anything before he was lynched but he left a huge clue and no one seemed to notice or ignored it on purpose.
theohall wrote:And now I have to go to work, so mark me for death if you must, but you will be losing a member of the good guys who could actually help you learn things. Too bad I cannot prove this nor will I be given the opportunity.
No one wanted to discuss this bit of info...at least none of the ones that were here this morning.

but msteeler cast the deciding vote and wrote this:
msteelers wrote: So here's what I know:
  • Theohall did something to get Grund's attention.
  • Grund's intuition is ridiculous in these games.
  • Theohall would have claimed to be a special already if he was one, since he's posted multiple times while at N-1.
I do agree that theohall's action since Grund's accusation lead me to believe he is evil and the special comment may be an attempt to save himself but I thought it would be worth discussing, especially since Grund has admitted numerous times that his radar sometimes catches good specials instead of bad guys.
Lagom Lite and msteeler were both active after theohall dropped the hint that he was special. Neither one brought it up, like they were hoping to hide it amongst all their posts.
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 2 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lassr »

Lagom Lite wrote:
msteelers wrote:You guys do all realize that even Q could not be certain of someones status on Day 1, right? That he didn't get a scan until AFTER Theohall was killed?

So there is no possible way for Bubbles to know for certain that Remus was guilty, or for stessier to know that grund was evil.
No, I didn't realize that. :oops:
maybe nothing but msteeler knew the rule and Lagom "did not"
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lassr »

break time. I'm sleepy from all the travel today.
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lassr »

one thought while it's fresh on my mind after I've been running the numbers the past 15 minutes:

Lynch or Shoot Remus:

the argument for lynching was in case Qaataga was Spectre and then could be shot by Bond the next day.
But either path meant that if we kept hitting innocents we would be in the exact same position due to the way the numbers worked out (with either 6 or 5 players on the last day). It offered no advantage over shooting Remus. We would be in the exact same position. With a must lynch or shot by day 2 after the Remus reveal. So if there is no advantage one way or the other then why not use Bond for what he was meant for and that is shooting Jaws. Even if he turned out not to be Jaws then 2 days later we still would have had the exact same situation assuming we kept hitting innocents.

It was a wash either way. Did they think it offered an advantage one way or the other? Would an evil argue the point of the lynch when it could look bad on them AND knowing it didn't create any advantages?
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 1 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lagom Lite »

Lassr wrote:
Lagom Lite wrote:Yeah yeah, go for the obvious. There's like, oh, twenty-two other agents wanting to kill me. Don't do it, you'll miss me!
making notes as I search the thread:

at the time he posted that last sentence I wondered if he was trying to drop a subtle hint that he was special. Now we know he is not. Evil making an attempt to stop a train from forming on him?
Good eye. I'm Special Agent #022.
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Chaosraven »

I think we will need to come to a nonvoting consensus before we vote. Trying to draw the wolves out with a vote will not work at One, as a wolfpile will not occur. Attempting to do so with Two votes will cost us the game if the Target is any NonWolf. If we mix and match our Two Wolves suspicion we can discuss what we are willing to do.
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lagom Lite »

Chaosraven wrote:I think we will need to come to a nonvoting consensus before we vote. Trying to draw the wolves out with a vote will not work at One, as a wolfpile will not occur. Attempting to do so with Two votes will cost us the game if the Target is any NonWolf. If we mix and match our Two Wolves suspicion we can discuss what we are willing to do.
Agreed. My suggestion is Isgrimnur. I could also consider Msteelers or Chaosraven.
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 1 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lagom Lite »

Lassr wrote:
Lassr wrote:this is what I found interesting; you guys keep saying theohall didn't say anything before he was lynched but he left a huge clue and no one seemed to notice or ignored it on purpose.
theohall wrote:And now I have to go to work, so mark me for death if you must, but you will be losing a member of the good guys who could actually help you learn things. Too bad I cannot prove this nor will I be given the opportunity.
No one wanted to discuss this bit of info...at least none of the ones that were here this morning.

but msteeler cast the deciding vote and wrote this:
msteelers wrote: So here's what I know:
  • Theohall did something to get Grund's attention.
  • Grund's intuition is ridiculous in these games.
  • Theohall would have claimed to be a special already if he was one, since he's posted multiple times while at N-1.
I do agree that theohall's action since Grund's accusation lead me to believe he is evil and the special comment may be an attempt to save himself but I thought it would be worth discussing, especially since Grund has admitted numerous times that his radar sometimes catches good specials instead of bad guys.
Lagom Lite and msteeler were both active after theohall dropped the hint that he was special. Neither one brought it up, like they were hoping to hide it amongst all their posts.
I think I know which post you mean, and I say now as I did then; I didn't catch his special claim - if that was indeed what it was, as it was very vague. Besides, if you are to come out as a special when threatened to get lynched, you do so clearly and unambiguously. Being coy about it means nothing, a wolf would do that.
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Chaosraven »

My two are msteelers and lagom lite. I have isgrimnur after those two, lessened as I had him attached to stessier.
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 2 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lassr »

Unagi wrote:
Remus West wrote:Oh, and can't read him so kill him.
 Lagom Lite 
 
Does Remus like to vote for a partner, right out of the gate? Not particularly, from my recolection - I'd be open to any counter evidence.
Remus did vote Lagom right off the bat. It is often a wolf move to get a vote against your partner at sometimes during the game. Why not right at the start when not much chance of a train yet?
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 2 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lassr »

Lagom Lite wrote:Regarding msteelers: With the caveat of not having played with him before, it just seems unlikely to me that a wolf would be so cander. The fact that there is "hard evidence" against him is the very thing that makes me doubt he's a bad guy after all. He says things and doesn't blink. I even tried insulting him and he didn't even flinch (sorry msteelers! Part of the game, y'know? ;) ) If msteelers is a wolf he's actually a very good liar.

But I'm trying to teach myself Occam's razor to these games. If it smells like a wolf... I know what to think of msteelers after Grund is dead. Do you need reasons to lynch Grund?

He is:
* Not helping
* Cautious
* Pursuing a lynch against his intuition

This is not the Grund I know. And stessier may be a wolf, I could even see a Grund + stessier wolf pairing - risky, but it's there.
lagom comments on msteeler
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 2 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lassr »

Lassr wrote:
Lagom Lite wrote:Regarding msteelers: With the caveat of not having played with him before, it just seems unlikely to me that a wolf would be so cander. The fact that there is "hard evidence" against him is the very thing that makes me doubt he's a bad guy after all. He says things and doesn't blink. I even tried insulting him and he didn't even flinch (sorry msteelers! Part of the game, y'know? ;) ) If msteelers is a wolf he's actually a very good liar.
.
and this is exactly what's bothering me about my msteeler infatuation. He's sticking to his guns, not wavering even when there is evil evidence against him. I find I keep talking myself out of msteeler is a bad guy but as you said Occam's Razor.

One of the reasons I chose to go the Grund route.

I don't like Isgrimnur's silence and tendency to pop up when his name is called out (Isgrimnur, Isgrimnur, Isgrimnur) and Chaos' silence is really unusual (has he ever been THIS quiet?)
my reply and why I backed off msteeler.
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 2 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lassr »

Lassr wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:What, what, what?
I going to start calling you CandyMan....he was evil also you know.
Isgrimnur pops in right after my post referenced above answering the Candyman call of Isgrimnur, Isgrimnur, Isgrimnur.

Reading and watching but not participating...
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 2 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lagom Lite »

Lassr wrote:
Lassr wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:What, what, what?
I going to start calling you CandyMan....he was evil also you know.
Isgrimnur pops in right after my post referenced above answering the Candyman Lovecraftian call of Isgrimnur, Isgrimnur, Isgrimnur.

Reading and watching but not participating...
ftfy

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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lassr »

Chaosraven wrote:My two are msteelers and lagom lite. I have isgrimnur after those two, lessened as I had him attached to stessier.
So far I can't find anything that stands out about semaj, or you. semaj posts seems good but you are just not here enough. I don't know what to make of you after rereading half the thread.

After searching through the first half Isgrimnur and Lagom sticks out. msteeler goes up and down my list but I can't shake the feeling that he would be a little more careful as a bad guy in some of the things he was doing.

to be continued...
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 2 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Isgrimnur »

Lassr wrote:
Lassr wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:What, what, what?
I going to start calling you CandyMan....he was evil also you know.
Isgrimnur pops in right after my post referenced above answering the Candyman call of Isgrimnur, Isgrimnur, Isgrimnur.

Reading and watching but not participating...
Yes, how dare I keep up with the thread while trying to gather information and not stick my head up like a whack-a-mole? :roll:
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lagom Lite »

Hello darkness, my old friend
I've come to talk with you again
Because a vision softly creeping
Left its seed while I was sleeping
And the vision that was planted in my brain
Still remains
Within the sound of silence
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Newcastle »

Lagom - it's a big holiday weekend here in the states. Labor day weekend. Lots of barbequeing, booze, social get togethers, travelling and whatnot. Usually marks the end of summer also. Hence the main reason of the slowdown here.

but by all means dont let that stop you from posting :D
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lassr »

Yeah, been at the lake all day, and my Fantasy Football draft is in 1 hour. Tomorrow is yard work all day...weeeeeeeee.
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Re: WW- Chapter 3 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lassr »

Unagi wrote:
Lagom Lite wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:Since I'm already on your threat list and don't care for your phrasing, I'll go with  Lagom Lite 
 
Lynching me is a miss, I'm afraid.
:?
Why tell him? Isn't your running theory that he knows you are a miss? Wow Lagom. Damn.
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Re: WW- Chapter 3 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lassr »

Semaj wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:I'm down with  Lassr 
 
today as long as we're going with steelers tomorrow if it's a miss.
trying to die today?

Thats aboot as wolfish as I can forsee.
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Re: WW- Chapter 3 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lassr »

Semaj wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:Since I'm already on your threat list and don't care for your phrasing, I'll go with  Lagom Lite 
 
Starts off ye old voting

The second a vote hops on lassr
Isgrimnur wrote:I'm down with  Lassr 
 
today as long as we're going with steelers tomorrow if it's a miss.
So now you have named/voted for _3_ people

Lagom for not liking the cut of his jib... Lassr because... um... um... i guess in theory no reaosn is needed? and then you say Steelers tomorrow.

Nope, cant fathom how this looks evil

Not at all, Newp, nein, nyet, nadda....

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Re: WW- Chapter 3 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lassr »

Unagi wrote:Isgrimnur, if we are to just ignore your described style of play - what's to stop a wolf from just always picking someone elses 'bad vote' and blaming them the next day for it ?

Free will. Put Your vote where You want it.
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lassr »

I keep coming back to Lagom Lite and Isgrimnur. Isgrimnur did place a quick vote against Lagom but then quickly switched to me after msteeler voted me. That just smells so wolfy.

At this point I think I am down for voting for either of those.

semaj's seems good to me and if he's the wolf then kudos. Chaos...well, I just don't know, he's been more quiet than usual...feels almost pr0ner like this game. If he's a wolf then 'Booooo!"
msteeler, started out very wolfy but cleaned up his act later. Change of style because we were catching on to him? Gut says no, if he's a wolf then he's played a dangerous game as a wolf and kudos for sticking with it for so long.
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Semaj »

Lassr wrote:At this point I think I am down for voting for either of those.

semaj's seems good to me and if he's the wolf then kudos. Chaos...well, I just don't know, he's been more quiet than usual...feels almost pr0ner like this game. If he's a wolf then 'Booooo!"
its the reason I went on that 5 or 6 game lynch the silents tirade, lol
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by msteelers »

Lassr wrote:Lynch or Shoot Remus:

the argument for lynching was in case Qaataga was Spectre and then could be shot by Bond the next day.
But either path meant that if we kept hitting innocents we would be in the exact same position due to the way the numbers worked out (with either 6 or 5 players on the last day). It offered no advantage over shooting Remus. We would be in the exact same position. With a must lynch or shot by day 2 after the Remus reveal. So if there is no advantage one way or the other then why not use Bond for what he was meant for and that is shooting Jaws. Even if he turned out not to be Jaws then 2 days later we still would have had the exact same situation assuming we kept hitting innocents.
The advantage in lynching Remus over shooting him is that we would still have a hidden Bond, who could potentially break up a tie game by shooting a bad guy.

Granted, there were multiple things that could have happened to prevent that. Bond could have been killed before he ever got to use his shot, or he could have guessed wrong and killed an innocent during the tie game. But I believe that even that small chance of extending the game was worth it.

Are we voting yet? I would like to vote for chaosraven, but I'll hold off for now.
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lassr »

msteelers wrote: I would like to vote for chaosraven.
Have you seen something that makes you think he is evil. I honestly can't find anything in his few posts. Few posts with little substance is the one thing that bothers me about Chaos.

My record at last day hits is not good although I've been 2 for 2 in the last few games...but before that....not good, not good at all.

So your feeling is to take a chance on the quiet one. Where I'd like to vote for who may be the most obvious one of the bunch (meaning things I can put my finger on in their posts).
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by msteelers »

Lassr wrote:So your feeling is to take a chance on the quiet one.
Not exactly.
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Chaosraven »

msteelers wrote:
Lassr wrote:So your feeling is to take a chance on the quiet one.
Not exactly.
hahaha your first link leads to your suspicion of lagom, lassr, igrim, chaos. That's four out of five of the NotMsteelers remaining. And of course both included stessier. Got any posts out there where you are suspicious of Semaj to cover all your bases? Hee hee hee
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Semaj »

oddly, to be suspicious of me is like bing suspicious of..I got nothing... much like anyone who scours my posts looking for wolfness.

You gave a list fo 3 people, pretty much the only people it could be if your good. You haven't really done much analyzing or anything. You've kept your posts small. You are pretty much not posting and not participating. I mean I can understand work sometimes, and whanot, but this is just plain silly. Either your a wolf and avoidinng the spotlight in case your compatriot gets caught, or... you need to be noogied for just no-showing at such a crucial time.

While I can accept your thoughts on who is evil might differ from mine, I cant stand no explanation of why.

I'ts probably Chaos and Isg guys :)
Some claim to be things they aren't.
Some claim things they don't deserve.
Some claim to know more than they ever will.
I don't claim anything, because no one would believe the truth anyways.
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Lagom Lite
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lagom Lite »

Semaj wrote:oddly, to be suspicious of me is like bing suspicious of..I got nothing... much like anyone who scours my posts looking for wolfness.

You gave a list fo 3 people, pretty much the only people it could be if your good. You haven't really done much analyzing or anything. You've kept your posts small. You are pretty much not posting and not participating. I mean I can understand work sometimes, and whanot, but this is just plain silly. Either your a wolf and avoidinng the spotlight in case your compatriot gets caught, or... you need to be noogied for just no-showing at such a crucial time.

While I can accept your thoughts on who is evil might differ from mine, I cant stand no explanation of why.

I'ts probably Chaos and Isg guys :)
Can we vote now?
But you've seen who's in heaven
Is there anyone in hell?


"Lagom you are a smooth tongued devil, and an opportunistic monster" - OOWW Game Club
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by msteelers »

It's Tuesday morning. I would like to vote and get my sticker now.
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lassr »

I'm leaning Isgrimnur, you guys leaning Chaosraven?
The only reason people get lost in thought is because it's unfamiliar territory.

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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by Lagom Lite »

Lassr wrote:I'm leaning Isgrimnur, you guys leaning Chaosraven?
Chaosraven and Isgrimnur is my guess. Since we can't afford a miss tomorrow even if we hit today, we might as well decide on pairs:

6 players.
Hit.
Kill.

4 players.
Miss.
Kill.
Spectre wins.

I'm leaning Isgrimnur too though.
But you've seen who's in heaven
Is there anyone in hell?


"Lagom you are a smooth tongued devil, and an opportunistic monster" - OOWW Game Club
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Re: WW- Bond Chapter 4 - The Davos Initiative

Post by msteelers »

Lassr wrote:I'm leaning Isgrimnur, you guys leaning Chaosraven?
I'm leaning Isgrimnur and Chaos. I would like to vote for Chaos today, but I would be comfortable with a vote on Isg as well.

The reason why I'm willing to vote for Isgrimnur today is the Theohall vote. We know that at least one bad guy voted for Theohall (Remus), and that leaves two bad guys unaccounted for on that vote. I'm willing to assume that at least one bad guy did not vote for Theohall. And there are only two people left alive who didn't vote for Theo: Isgrimnur and Lagom.

If we can agree that there is a bad guy in this group, then that gives us a 50% chance of hitting a bad guy today.
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