[WW] The Princess Bride - Game Over

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 5:32 pm

It is Night

Westley, who will you scan? Who will you protect?
Fezzik, who will you protect?
Pirates, who will you scan?
Dread Pirate Roberts, who will you scan? Or, who will you kill?
Humperdinck, who will you kill?
Buttercup, who will you scan?
Ancient Booer, who will you scan?
Inigo Montoya, who will you scan?
County Tyrone Rugen, who will you scan?
Prince Humperdinck, will you try to convert someone to your evil ways?
Miracle Max, will you resurrect a mostly dead player?

Deadline for all night orders will be Thursday, September 22 at Midnight EST.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 5:46 pm

yes!

Sooo, we have a convert or Q is playing with us.

If it is really night then I need to get some sleep because I have a hell of a task ahead of me tomorrow.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 5:48 pm

Told you all so. Now to find the convert, which is not me.

Lassr wrote:yes!

Sooo, we have a convert or Q is playing with us.

If it is really night then I need to get some sleep because I have a hell of a task ahead of me tomorrow.

Sure you do, but first you have to submit your kill order....

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 6:00 pm

RMC wrote:Told you all so. Now to find the convert, which is not me.

Lassr wrote:yes!

Sooo, we have a convert or Q is playing with us.

If it is really night then I need to get some sleep because I have a hell of a task ahead of me tomorrow.
Sure you do, but first you have to submit your kill order....

no need to campaign now. We'll go over all the scenarios tomorrow and let the chips fall where they may.

Mr Bubbles · Post by **Mr Bubbles** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 6:04 pm

Well thankfully people didn't listen to me. Good job folks.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 6:07 pm

true very true...

And I could be wrong...

rshetts2 · Post by **rshetts2** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 8:18 pm

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Sep 21, 2011 11:43 pm

Nailed it! Would you look at that - I analyzed posts and actually came to the right conclusion.

Anywho, the remaining evil can deliberate amongst himself, and then we'll figure out who he is in the mornin'. Should be interesting.

Lagom Lite · Post by **Lagom Lite** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 2:48 am

Eugh... game still not over?

Mr Bubbles · Post by **Mr Bubbles** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 9:08 am

El Guapo wrote:Nailed it! Would you look at that - I analyzed posts and actually came to the right conclusion.

My hero

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 1:43 pm

This morning dawns to a torrential downpour.

You doubt you slept more than an hour as the storm raged most of the night. You open the front door of your cottage and stare out into the gloom. You hope this is not a portent of the day to come.

You debate running through the rain to the Inn, but you decide to wait, at least until the rain has eased a little.

You pass the time thinking back over the horrific events that have befallen your previously peaceful village.

Finally, the worst of the storm passes. A gentle rain remains, but it now seems almost soothing. You make your way to the Inn and find that others have already gathered there.

As you walk in, you know that there will be no search this morning. Above the fireplace mantle, strung up by chicken wire and most certainly lifeless is a body.

Mr Bubbles is dead.

You walk over and look. As you glance at his face, the smudge begins to form on his forehead. The runes form slowly. You know immediately that there is no good news to be found here, but you wait for the runes to finish forming their word before turning away.

The word is Villager.

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 1:44 pm

Living:
3. Lassr
14. El Guapo
17. Lagom Lite
20. RMC

Dead:

9. Newcastle - strangled in the night
1. bb2112 - lynched
2. PLW - drowned in the night
18. Isgrimnur - lynched
12. triggercut - hanged in the night
4. theohall - sunk in the river (lynched)
7. Chaosraven - dumped in the fountain overnight
11. Remus West - skewered with arrows (lynched)
13. tru1cy - found dead in his cottage overnight
16. Unagi - stoned - Evil
15. Scoop - found dead in the woods overnight
5. stessier - hung - Evil
19. rshetts2 - pummeled with firewood
8. pr0ner - scarecrowed in the night
10. coopasonic - eaten by ROUS Evil
6. Mr. Bubbles - hung over the fireplace with care

It is now Day 9.

Who will you lynch?

Majority is 3

Deadline is Wednesday, September 28 at 9:00 pm EST.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 1:59 pm

Huh, I was kind of expecting it to be me. But on the plus side - ladies, I'm single again!

PLW · Post by **PLW** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 2:07 pm

The only lady left?

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 2:10 pm

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 2:34 pm

This might be (probably is?) a stupid question, BUT: unless I am missing something, aren't we better off passing today?

Basically, right now it's 3 v. 1. We have one miss (unless Max is bizarrely hiding out), as a miss makes it 2 v.1, and then the night kill makes it 1 v. 1 (game over).

If we pass, the night kill makes it 2 v. 1. We still then have one miss, as the miss would make it 1 v. 1 (game over).

So under either scenario we have one miss. But in the second scenario our odds of screwing it up are less, insofar as we have one less "wrong" answer. Any of Lagom, Lassr, or RMC could be the convert. By killing one of them (which he apparently has to do), the evildoer would be knocking off one wrong choice off of our multiple choice test. Granted, he's going to pick the one who he thinks is least likely to be erroneously lynched, but that still simplifies the analysis, making it 50/50 instead of 33%.

I'm trying to think of ways in which passing could screw things up. I suppose if we in fact have two unactivated pirates that have somehow not scanned each other yet, that could mess it up. Or if Team Evil somehow managed to hit Max with the conversion, and the evildoer hiding out is Max, he could rez an evildoer after the night kill and make it 2 v. 2. Both of those seem exceedingly unlikely, but I guess they're possible.

Seems counter-intuitive, but seems to make sense, no? Anyhow, food for thought.

Lagom Lite · Post by **Lagom Lite** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 2:59 pm

Clever kill. I expect Lassr will now commence pushing for my death.

El Guapo, passing struck me as an altenative as well. The thing is, the only result is you getting killed - and you're not going to get lynched anyway so there's really nothing to gain from it.

Lassr

is the final bad guy. It will be truly entertaining to watch him trying to make you think I am.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 3:05 pm

Yeah, that's true. Somehow when thinking about who would get killed I managed to not include myself on the list.

Let's not push anyone to n-1 until we have had an extended discussion, and definitely not today. If we're wrong --> evil jumps in and wins.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 3:18 pm

Lagom Lite wrote:Clever kill. I expect Lassr will now commence pushing for my death.

El Guapo, passing struck me as an altenative as well. The thing is, the only result is you getting killed - and you're not going to get lynched anyway so there's really nothing to gain from it.

Lassr

is the final bad guy. It will be truly entertaining to watch him trying to make you think I am.

Have you ruled out RMC as the final convert, and if so why?

Not saying that I think he's the one, exactly, but it's a possibility I have to consider.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 3:41 pm

Lagom Lite wrote:Clever kill. I expect Lassr will now commence pushing for my death.

you may be surprised then.

EL Guapo-Yes I thought he may be the night kill because he is without a doubt the most proven. Bubbles had a very small chance of being the conversion. But a converted that gave up evil #2 then lied to prove El Guapo was telling the truth. doubt it. So El Guapo is not a convert.

Lagom Lite-always thought you might be a convert. But when pr0ner named his protection list and tru1cy came out I found it unlikely that the bad guys went for just one kill that night. I think you were the kill target and Coops insistent on it makes me think it is true. He was trying to get me lynched.

Lassr-what can I do? Would I have made a good conversion target? Yes. Did they choose me? No.

RMC-He was below the radar of almost everybody. Unagi couldn't select you as the conversion so does he choose me or RMC? I could guess they didn't choose me because I often die before the end game. It has been a few years since I've made it this far. Yet here I am. Set up to have me as the last lynch, sure seems like it.

So I am almost positive it is RMC

.
If it is you then congratulations on another Mara Jade moment.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 4:19 pm

See, I am thinking it has to be Lassr, for all the reasons I listed before. It was down to a few people to choose to convert.

Lagom was the choice I would have thought to be converted, but that might have been too direct for the humperdink. I am guessing team evil thought we would Lynch him ourselves, and if he had not found Humperdink we might have.

El Guapo - Heck I will admit, earlier I was thinking he was on team evil. But he has been as proven as can be in this game.

So once again that leaves as the best guesses to everyone else, me and Lassr. And I know I am just a villager.

Lassr

I will put this in your hands El Guapo.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 5:00 pm

Quick, somebody say something that only a good person would know!

Anywho, going to start my analysis hopefully this evening. Not to create tons of suspense, but I'm not inclined to rush this.

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 5:49 pm

Voting:

3. Lassr ----------------> RMC
14. El Guapo ---------->
17. Lagom Lite -------> Lassr
20. RMC ---------------> Lassr

Lassr (2): Lagom, RMC
RMC (1): Lassr

*Please let me know if I've missed anything.

Players remaining: 4
Majority is 3

Deadline is Wednesday, September 28 at 9:00 pm EST.

Lassr is n-1

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 7:28 pm

Lagom Lite wrote:Clever kill. I expect Lassr will now commence pushing for my death.

El Guapo, passing struck me as an altenative as well. The thing is, the only result is you getting killed - and you're not going to get lynched anyway so there's really nothing to gain from it.

Lassr

is the final bad guy. It will be truly entertaining to watch him trying to make you think I am.

all I ask is don't put on the Unagi blinders and focus on one person without looking at the others.

Hell RMC could be the original and Coop a convert. Just keep an open mind for the sake of the village.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Sep 22, 2011 8:54 pm

Let's meet our contestants.

Starting in alphabetical order. Contestants, to think you were evil, what would I need to believe to be true?

Lagom - "Well, you would have to believe that I threw an evil teammate under the bus following a lengthy stream of village errors in order to gain credibility for the end-game. You'd probably have to believe that I was converted after coming out as the Booer. You'd also probably have to believe that Team Evil used their night kill on tru1cy rather than just use the Count and aim for a double-kill."

Lassr - "There seems to be a general consensus that I was good to begin with, apparently based on reasonableness of posts (though you should probably go back and read my posts in this thread). You'd probably want to try and find a likely point of conversion. You'd have to believe that I threw coop under the bus yesterday."

RMC - "You would have to believe that the binary choice between coop and me yesterday was just a ruse, and that either I/we figured that by doing so the survivor would have enough credibility to avoid a lynch today (knowing that we only needed one miss), or we figured that the other lynch targets weren't plausible enough and that pushing for them would just risk exposing us. You'd probably believe that the differences between RMC days 1-3 and RMC days 4-9 were due to conversion rather than real life / boredom / frustration."

Good answers - thank you candidates.

I have to say I think Lagom's answer is the most compelling so far - seems quite a stretch to think him the convert. Though I guess I've been assuming that we're facing the convert at this point as opposed to an original. Most of the above would still apply, except that for Lagom to be an original I'd also have to believe that he gambled on Day 2 that the Booer was already dead, which seems ridiculous on its face.

Lagom Lite · Post by **Lagom Lite** » Fri Sep 23, 2011 4:44 am

El Guapo wrote:
Lagom Lite wrote:Clever kill. I expect Lassr will now commence pushing for my death.

El Guapo, passing struck me as an altenative as well. The thing is, the only result is you getting killed - and you're not going to get lynched anyway so there's really nothing to gain from it.

Lassr

is the final bad guy. It will be truly entertaining to watch him trying to make you think I am.
Have you ruled out RMC as the final convert, and if so why?

Not saying that I think he's the one, exactly, but it's a possibility I have to consider.

I haven't ruled out RMC, but I find Lassr to be most likely. If you find somethin damning, I would consider it. Meanwhile, consider the following:

Evil killed Mr Bubbles last night. Mr Bubbles was really the only player who felt paranoid about me apart from Lassr. By killing Bubblecup instead of you, it could look like I was the one doing the killing last night.

But, Mr Bubbles also wrote this about RMC just before night:

Mr Bubbles wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
Mr Bubbles wrote: RMC

Stab in the dark
Why RMC? I thought you were leaning Coop.
Going back on to post both have made, it seemed to me that RMC's comments raised more of a question than Coop. So he's got my vote. It also seems to me that the bad guys are going to play hard and try to make a strong case against a good guy, so I'm going against the grain on a hunch.

But this is neither here nor there. RMC could kill Bubblecup beacuse he was a threat, or Lassr could kill Bubblecup to frame RMC.

Of course, if RMC was the one who killed Bubblecup it really is a stroke of evil genius since it accentuates the Lagom vs. Lassr choice. I wouldn't put it past RMC to do this, but it still seems more likely that it's a last ditch effort by Lassr to insert some confusion, thereby increasing his chances. Especially since I defused his argument by pre-empting it this morning; he's now instead going for RMC.

Then there's this:

El Guapo wrote:FWIW Lassr I don't think you're evil. Though I can't rule it out, of course.

Lassr wrote:I have debated on how much info I should post on my looking back at RMC and Coop simply because if you are sure I am evil then I'm not sure how you are going to treat my info. I would hate to give my best guess and then have you go the opposite direction and then be wrong and we lose.

I have poked Coop a few times in the game. Adding him to my evil list, called him Count. It never really phased him. I've looked back at past games and I cannot find where he has been evil.
If he is evil this game then he has handled himself well for a newbie. Could he be playing the role of the helpful evil guy? Maybe but as I said looking back I can't find any game where he was evil so I don't know how he would tend to play an evil role. I think that's what drew my attention to Coop; I often play the helpful evil.

Looking back at the last 2 games with RMC; My BSG game he was active and a citizen. He had far more posts than this game. The other game where he was very quiet was Star Wars and he was the rebel Lando. His I am not evil post, is similar to his I am not rebel posts. A lot of his posts in this game have been rules questions.

On the surface RMC looks more evil than Coop but what dwells underneath is the most important.

Some info for you to digest as I try to determine where I want to place my vote.

Emphasis mine. Seems to defend coop.

But most of the above is circumstance. The reason for my crusade against Lassr lies further back into the thread. I'll start by reposting this because it's so icky:

Lassr wrote:I can't get over the feeling that you are the Perfect Storm and "remember Mara Jade" could be replaced with "remember Lagom Lite!"

You are a smooth tongued devil, and an opportunistic monster after all...

It's like an attempt at flattering me and manipulating others all rolled into one.

And here it is again you see (earlier, from coop, emphasis mine):

coopasonic wrote:
El Guapo wrote: Coop - didn't actually join LL's push on me today, but supported it with extremely flimsy logic; seems mostly quiet, though that could just be my perception at the moment.
It was all I had. I was looking for something on the non-provens and specifically something related to the Count and that was what I could find. Obviously it seems flimsy to you because you knew you were Westley, none of the rest of us knew it at the time. I never put my vote on because, as I noted, you pointed the error out yourself and then I was trying to decide if Lagom was being a smooth tongued devil and opportunistic monster.

One other thing:
Mr Bubbles wrote: Sorry haven't had the opportunity to be online. My love Wesley is still alive.
What night did you first hear Westley was alive? This matters.

Oh and I was just going to ask Q the same thing. I bet that's something the mod hadn't considered.

Then, there's this (Lassr is too quick to buy El Guapo's story):

Lagom Lite wrote:
Lassr wrote: rshetts

Not sure I believe El Guapo or not. Convenient timing but if evil he's taking a risk with only 2 votes on him that the real Wesley is still alive. for the moment I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

rshetts had several posts that really drew my attention, specifically when he wanted tru1cy to name his scans.

My gut has been correct on 2 others so I'll go with this.
And this shit just screams "convert". Come on, a remaining Evil would most likely try to fake an unclaimed role at this point. Even if you did give El Guapo the benefit of the doubt, don't you think it would be better to at least go back and check what El Guapo said to Scoop before writing such a weak post?

Later, Lassr explains his mistake by claiming he has some kind of master plan. I don't know. Is that a good guy reaction?

Lassr wrote:
Lagom Lite wrote:
Lassr wrote: rshetts

Not sure I believe El Guapo or not. Convenient timing but if evil he's taking a risk with only 2 votes on him that the real Wesley is still alive. for the moment I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

rshetts had several posts that really drew my attention, specifically when he wanted tru1cy to name his scans.

My gut has been correct on 2 others so I'll go with this.
And this shit just screams "convert". Come on, a remaining Evil would most likely try to fake an unclaimed role at this point. Even if you did give El Guapo the benefit of the doubt, don't you think it would be better to at least go back and check what El Guapo said to Scoop before writing such a weak post?
I actually agree with you. There is a method to my madness.

This is Lassr's full explanation, for reference:

Lassr wrote:
Lagom Lite wrote: Sucks to change sides, doesn't it?

Ok, since you seem to be determined that I have been converted I'll explain now so we can focus on finding the original bad guy.

rshetts is high on my list, El Guapo was a close 2nd. When El Guapo revealed the timing made no sense as a good guy. But I didn't want to jump on the vote right then. I wanted to get 2 votes on rshetts and see who followed what vote. Voting record helps a lot toward the end game. If rshetts garnered any votes I was going to withdraw and vote El Guapo because I agree that was just a bit too convenient in timing. But I wanted to see who would vote for whom.

When you made that rule revelation I thought maybe we did catch him in a screw up and there would be no doubt. We'll see.

The explanation just seems contrived, too controlled, too steady. A good guy would probably take at least some offense at my yelling at him like that.

Finally, there's the wide-eyed reaction from coopasonic, that slipped by me at the time:

coopasonic wrote:
Lagom Lite wrote:So Lassr was converted, and coopasonic is the Count.

That about right?
I can't speak for Lassr, but I'm not the Count. Are you just throwing darts at the dartboard or are the voices speaking to you?

I think RMC was a poor conversion choice. If I was Unagi, I wouldn't have chosen him. RMC was quiet and not an unlikely lynch. coop... well, I guess he's a possible conversion but his style of posting has been very even this game. If he was converted he's been a very good actor. Lassr otoh has definitely changed his demeanor. It might be because he's under pressure (welcome to end game!) or the simple truth is that he changed alignment.

Of course, I'm still guessing. But Lassr is my best guess. If RMC is the baddie, as far as I'm concerned he deserves to win. Or rather, Lassr does not. I'd kick myself if I let him get off the hook with all this.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Fri Sep 23, 2011 8:10 am

The explanation just seems contrived, too controlled, too steady. A good guy would probably take at least some offense at my yelling at him like that.

good guy or bad guy I think you will find that my game play is pretty even tempered.

Lassr explains his mistake by claiming he has some kind of master plan.

and I wish I had time to go back to previous games where I've used the voting trap as a good guy; where I try to see who jumps on a vote.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Fri Sep 23, 2011 8:16 am

Here is where Lagom announces Unagi is Humperdink. We assume the conversion happened after that.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Fri Sep 23, 2011 8:35 am

Especially since I defused his argument by pre-empting it this morning; he's now instead going for RMC.

I wasn't planning on voting for you. I think you saw that yesterday and even quoted it above:

Lassr wrote:I can't get over the feeling that you are the Perfect Storm and "remember Mara Jade" could be replaced with "remember Lagom Lite!"

You are a smooth tongued devil, and an opportunistic monster after all...

this was me stating that the odds of you being the converted were slim although still possible. And just like the Mara Jade case, the odds do not justify going down that road. If you pulled off this master plan as a convert then you deserve to win. You are like a 17 in blackjack, smart money is to leave it alone and stay. I can't justify putting a vote on you because odds are the village would bust.

I thought I had mentioned somewhere else also that I didn't think you were the convert.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 5:08 pm

So El Guapo have you decided who is the Mara Jade of this game yet? Well I guess they could be the count, but I am guessing convert.

I am in no hurry, just saw the shirt so thought I would post it.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 3:57 pm

Didn't look at the thread this weekend. Going to go through posts this evening and aim to cast a vote this evening - no point in pushing it off too far. Too much suspense!

Lagom Lite · Post by **Lagom Lite** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 4:03 pm

El Guapo wrote: Didn't look at the thread this weekend. Going to go through posts this evening and aim to cast a vote this evening - no point in pushing it off too far. Too much suspense!

Yes, there's been weeks of suspense now.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 4:51 pm

RMC wrote:So El Guapo have you decided who is the Mara Jade of this game yet?

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 7:45 pm

El Guapo wrote: Didn't look at the thread this weekend. Going to go through posts this evening and aim to cast a vote this evening - no point in pushing it off too far. Too much suspense!

Remember not to wait to the last minute...well unless you are voting for me then it really doesn't matter. But if you choose RMC there will be no time to try and convince Lagom.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 12:01 am

Random notes on Lassr (both positive and negative) so far.

Lassr (post Unagi death): touts list of Unagi, stessier, and coop, but then backs away from coop saying that was to test and doesn't think he's evil now; day 7 (my reveal) implicates rshetts2; waffles oddly on LL's push on me; coop pushes back on the Lassr conversion theory; day 7 pushes Lagom half-heartedly; pushes finding the original over the convert; day 7 has choice of me (Lagom pushing) or rshetts2 (pr0ner voted for) and chooses rshetts2;

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 7:50 am

Mod Note: I've had a last minute change of plans, so I'll be spending most of the day in planes and rental cars. It might be late afternoon before I can check in again.

Mr Bubbles · Post by **Mr Bubbles** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 5:04 pm

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 5:48 pm

Mod Note: A long day dodging storms in the delta. I'm finally back to Teh Interwebs.

rshetts2 · Post by **rshetts2** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:21 pm

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 12:48 am

Well, whomever is the remaining evil threw coop under the bus yesterday, that's for sure. What's interesting is that RMC came in and voted coop right way and stuck with it, never withdrawing or changing his vote. Lassr waffled back and forth speculating on Lagom, coop, and RMC (though never actually voting for someone other than coop). Indeed, Lassr both withdrew from coop when he hit n-1 and then later cast the vote that pushed coop to n-1.

So the story yesterday of Lassr being evil is that he comes in willing to throw coop under the bus but also casts around to see if people will bite at Lagom or RMC first. The story of RMC being evil is that he and coop decide before day 8 starts to throw coop under the bus, pushing in all the chips to win on the day 9 lynch. I guess I'm inclined to find the Lassr-evil story on that more plausible, as it seems like it doesn't make sense to pass up entirely chances to win on day 8 with a villager lynch, and in any event it doesn't seem wise to push the first vote of the day towards your teammate, when a villager might otherwise cast a wrong vote first that you can follow. Though possible.

Also coop's main argument yesterday boiled down to "lynch RMC since he's probably evil, but if you're not going to lynch RMC then lynch Lassr who is probably the convert." Which throws his evil teammate under the bus in some sense (unless Lagom is the convert, but that seems unlikely for reasons discussed), but Coop couldn't say that me or Bubbles was the convert, and probably found it implausible to blame Lagom, so picked Lassr. And if you have to name a teammate in your accusations, you'd probably want to push the villager first to try to win today, right?

Going to sleep on it, but probably going to vote Lassr tomorrow. If anyone's got something to say, now's the time. And I have one question for Lagom about a moment yesterday that's giving me some pause.