OOWL Game 1 OVER

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 6:36 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:We know triggercut was giving you the benefit of the doubt, RMC, because you voted against him (in a most peculiar way) at 12:33EST, and when he checked in less than an hour later (at 1:10pm), he declined to cast a retaliatory vote against you, according to his custom.

The timing of your eventual response says little.

Yeah, I understand what you are looking towards, but what is Pr0ner's play in this? He keeps looking more and more wolf like to me, and he has not been on my radar at all...

<shrug>

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 6:37 pm

What says alot is how much weight pr0ner is putting on this as his supposed defense after only replying when poked. He is "reaching" ala NFL draft terms in order to stay alive.

Now - if pr0ner turns up villager, myself or Grundbegriff are the obvious targets.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 6:39 pm

RMC wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:We know triggercut was giving you the benefit of the doubt, RMC, because you voted against him (in a most peculiar way) at 12:33EST, and when he checked in less than an hour later (at 1:10pm), he declined to cast a retaliatory vote against you, according to his custom.

The timing of your eventual response says little.
Yeah, I understand what you are looking towards, but what is Pr0ner's play in this? He keeps looking more and more wolf like to me, and he has not been on my radar at all...

<shrug>

Sadly, this makes you seem like a wolf semi-defending your partner. pr0ner's play is to stay alive simply because he is a wolf.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:33 pm

Unless I'm wrong (please double check and let me know if I am) this is what I'm getting from everyone:

1. pr0ner - Theohall, Grund
2. Qantaga - Grund, Isgrimnur, pr0ner, theohall
3. Isgrimnur - Grund, Pr0ner, Qantaga
5. RMC
6. theohall - Pr0ner, Qantaga, Grund
7. bb2112 - Grund, Isgrimnur
8. Grundbegriff - Pr0ner

Ok, a couple of things to note. RMC is not openly accusing anyone, again, unless I missed something. He has logged on and responded with a couple of posts though, but is being very careful. Grund is showing up on 5 people's radar and Pr0ner on 4. As I said before, we can't afford a miss today so I think we need to proceed with caution.

IMHO I think we should go with Grund today. This is why:

1. Pushed NC over the edge without seeing if we could drum up support for another last minute lynch.
2. Too focused on Pr0ner. He voted for Pr0ner early on Day 1 and has been sticking to that ever since. He is even hiding behind Theo's accusations to do it and pretending to not lead. Sign of a wolf hiding behind someone else.
3. Claims he didn't think Trig evil when he pushed for Trig hard a couple of times earlier in the game. Maybe he changed his mind, but never said anything until after Trigs death.
4. Claimed that Trig cleared RMC before Trig actually cleared RMC. Don’t know what that means since Trig is/was a villager. (Notice the verb tense there? Hunh? Hunh?)
5. Never denied he was a wolf, but would say things when he was accused along with someone else like "you are half wrong." Which half, Grund or the other accused? Nice word play.
6. Right after NC's death, he posted a wall of analysis and says it is evidence, but I am unclear on what "evidence" it really provides. Again reminds me of BSG when he supplied a bunch of nonsense evidence like he knows everyone is expecting something, but doesn't want to actually be helpful.
7. Accuses Q of not voting, but Q was on the NC vote. Grund makes a blatent error???
8. Tells everyone to not vote and to discuss more, then votes himself without the discussion.
9. Earlier Trig calls Grund out for making an edit. Grund explains, but Trig says that his explanation is untrue. Didn’t see it myself, but you know a good Trig is not going to let this go in the long run. Then Trig ends up dead in the night.
10. Q I think summed Trigs thoughts up best “3. He was obviously suspicious of Grund (misguided or wolfy?) and considered Grund to be an end game problem.” In his post http://octopusoverlords.com/forum/viewt ... 5#p1751275" target="_blank

If Grund is just a villager, he is playing very erratically and not too smart. I think Grund is very smart, so either he doesn't really care about this game, or he is on a campaign of confusion to the enemy. The number of posts suggests he does care, so it seems to me it is more the latter.

He is on 5 people's suspect list, so do you guys see the same things?

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:37 pm

What you just said about Grund, I would say about pr0ner, who is also playing erratically.

I would prefer pr0ner dies first. He goes and turns up wolf, it essentially proves Grund and hands us RMC, IMO.

Put up Grund and he turns up wolf, I am on the chopping block and would go voluntarily for screwing up. At the same time, RMC is very much acting like a wolf with his non-committalness.

IMO, if the Seer has meaningful info, it might be worth mentioning now due to the shortened time frame. Heck, the Seer might have been Newcastle or could easily die tonight.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:38 pm

bb2112 wrote:IMHO I think we should go with Grund today. This is why:

That's pretty funny. First, I'm always on everyone's radar. That indicates nothing, as anyone who has played with me can attest.

Second, and most notably-- look how you're going about things, when theohall's goading and poking has made it clear that pr0ner is a wolf in villager's clothing.

Why are you covering for pr0ner?

If Grund is just a villager, he is playing very erratically and not too smart. I think Grund is very smart, so either he doesn't really care about this game, or he is on a campaign of confusion to the enemy.

Your world is too narrow. View occluded by fur?

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:40 pm

theohall wrote:IMO, if the Seer has meaningful info, it might be worth mentioning now due to the shortened time frame. Heck, the Seer might have been Newcastle or could easily die tonight.

I'll roll those dice.

I'm the Seer. I scanned pr0ner and he's a wolf.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:40 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Second, and most notably-- look how you're going about things, when theohall's goading and poking has made it clear that pr0ner is a wolf in villager's clothing.

Why are you ignoring Theohall's numerous lies? Why would a villager have to lie, as theohall has done repeatedly?

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:41 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
pr0ner wrote:So you're ignoring the fact that RMC responded 12 minutes after Triggercut asked him to?
Why do you reckon that's important?

Because I'm arguing facts and timing that finds basis in this game. You're arguing meta bullshit.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:41 pm

Funniest. Simulpost. Ever.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:44 pm

What's wrong, pr0ner? Cat got your tongue?

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:45 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:What's wrong, pr0ner? Cat got your tongue?

The fact that you accepted Theo's completely incompetent play disappoints me.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:49 pm

pr0ner wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:What's wrong, pr0ner? Cat got your tongue?
The fact that you accepted Theo's completely incompetent play disappoints me.

I think theo's onto something. What can I say.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:52 pm

I will trust the Seer claim right now:

Grundbegriff wrote:
theohall wrote:IMO, if the Seer has meaningful info, it might be worth mentioning now due to the shortened time frame. Heck, the Seer might have been Newcastle or could easily die tonight.
I'll roll those dice.

I'm the Seer. I scanned pr0ner and he's a wolf.

And re-iterate....

pr0ner

Nothing about anything pr0ner has done in this game reads anything like he has stated in any game where he has been innocent.

It's kind of funny he is suddenly replying when being accused again, instead of making his own statements essentially ignoring us.

The innocent usually go with "You are wrong. I am a villager" whenever pr0ner is innocent. This time around all he has done is counter-accuse while trying to obfuscate facts - like triggercut actually agreeing with Grundbegriff and I irt RMC, which was posted later. Nice that pr0ner never bothers to mention it is actually posted later, then how convenient that triggercut is dead.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:54 pm

Umm.. Does anyone dispute Grunds claim?

If not we should vote for Pr0ner.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:55 pm

pr0ner wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:What's wrong, pr0ner? Cat got your tongue?
The fact that you accepted Theo's completely incompetent play disappoints me.

I don't think he accepts the incompetant play, Grund is saying he scanned you and that you are a wolf. Which would explain why he is focused on you. Could also be a great out for him.

So Grund, if you are the seer, who was your second scan? Didn't we have 2 nights? Or did the first night with the KK kill not count?

Nothing sinister in the question, I just honestly don't know the answer and didn't want to ask until it came up in game.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:58 pm

RMC wrote:
triggercut wrote:So here's the thing:

I think there's a decent chance I'll swing soon. Dunno. I think one of the three votes on me is a wolf vote, and I think the wolves may get antsy and put a second on me. Maybe not. Still...a threat matrix.

1. pr0ner--playing like pr0ner usually does when he's a villager, or at least that's my impression.

2. Qantaga--fairly quiet without saying too much of import, just enough to not appear silent. Seems very suspicious.

3. Isgrimnur--can't get a good read yet....but playing a lot like he did when he was a badguy in the Star Wars game.

4. Newcastle--quiet, and then posts an accusation against me without having seemingly comprehended one post and without having read any of bb2112's accusations. Either a Wolf, or a villager who's elimination would give the villagers a better chance at succeeding.

5. RMC--hard for me to get a read on.

6. theohall--seems...village-y?

7. bb2112--of two minds. everything posted seems kosher...except for that curious twofer of posts in the early evening tonight. Would like to see some explanation, but moving down my threat list at the moment.

8. Grundbegriff--misguided or wolfy? Don't like the edit, don't like that he's hellbent on ushering a known villager--(that'd be ME, Newcastle)--out of the game. Grund feels like an endgame problem more and more.

9. triggercut--Villager.
This is one of Triggercuts analysis of us all. Now we need to decide if the wolves offed him, because of one of these posts he made, or just because he was making them, not if he was accurate...
Let's assume he was kind of close. This means trigs main suspects were:
Grund, Q and Isgrimnur

I think both me and BB made the wait and see list. I know I am good, but you would all have to take my word for it.

And he thinks Pr0ner is a good guy. So if we cross reference this with the people that voted for newcastle:

Newcastle - 5 - triggercut, Qantaga, pr0ner, Isgrimnur, Grundbegriff

It looks like Trigs main suspects were all on that vote.

<shrug> Not sure what that tells us, but in this small of a game, the wolves might run from a lynch vote this early. Which would leave:
me(RMC), theohall, and BB

I would bet that their is one wolf on each list, with a 33% chance to get it right on list two. And I know I am good,so that makes it a 50-50 I think we should vote for either:
BB or Theohall

Trig did not have much to say about Theohall other than a big 'ole ?? and seems villag..y.

So what does everyone think? Is my logic at least somewhat passable? Even though I am in the second group, I think that is most likely our best percentage group to find a wolf.

By the way this is my post were I am accusing people. I pointed out that I thought a good test would be you BB..But you plainly want it to seem like I have not pointed to anyone.

If Grund is the Seer we have pr0ner, which I have pointed to as seeming wolf like. Then Theohall tries to suggest I am defending my 'wolf' partner.

If no one disputes Grund, let's lynch pr0ner, and then we can duke it out for who the last wolf is, assuming Grund is really the seer and pr0ner comes back wolf.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:59 pm

bb2112 wrote:So Grund, if you are the seer, who was your second scan? Didn't we have 2 nights? Or did the first night with the KK kill not count?

KK isn't in the game. The first night was fictional because triggercut, who wrote the original draft of the league's rules, doesn't like to kill a real player right off the bat.

I just honestly don't know the answer and didn't want to ask until it came up in game.

Odd.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:00 pm

RMC wrote:If no one disputes Grund, let's lynch pr0ner, and then we can duke it out for who the last wolf is, assuming Grund is really the seer and pr0ner comes back wolf.

I sincerely hope that nobody will dispute my claim.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:06 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
bb2112 wrote:So Grund, if you are the seer, who was your second scan? Didn't we have 2 nights? Or did the first night with the KK kill not count?
KK isn't in the game. The first night was fictional because triggercut, who wrote the original draft of the league's rules, doesn't like to kill a real player right off the bat.

I just honestly don't know the answer and didn't want to ask until it came up in game.
Odd.

Of course KK wasn't in the game

. I just wasn't sure if that first night where KK was supposedly killed constituted a night where the seer could get a scan. And again, nothing sinsiter in the question, I was just honestly asking, because I didn't know. Now that you are done calling me stupid for my ignorance, I will take your answer as "No, bb, there was only one official night in the game so far, therefore only one scan."

And this is where I say, "Thanks Grund. That clears that up."

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:09 pm

bb2112 wrote:Of course KK wasn't in the game . I just wasn't sure if that first night where KK was supposedly killed constituted a night where the seer could get a scan.

I misunderstood what you were asking. That's actually not a bad question.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:21 pm

Pr0ner, it doesn't look good for you. Do you have anything you want to say before we vote? Or is anyone going to come forward and contest Grund's claim?

The good news is we either we have a wolf in Pr0ner or one in Grund. Unless something really strange happens and someone else comes forward as Seer.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:23 pm

bb2112 wrote:The good news is we either we have a wolf in Pr0ner or one in Grund. Unless something really strange happens and someone else comes forward as Seer.

There are many ways this could play out, depending on how well the players know and trust one another.

This much seems obvious, though: it's time for pr0ner to go.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 8:35 pm

RMC wrote: By the way this is my post were I am accusing people. I pointed out that I thought a good test would be you BB..But you plainly want it to seem like I have not pointed to anyone.

If Grund is the Seer we have pr0ner, which I have pointed to as seeming wolf like. Then Theohall tries to suggest I am defending my 'wolf' partner.

If no one disputes Grund, let's lynch pr0ner, and then we can duke it out for who the last wolf is, assuming Grund is really the seer and pr0ner comes back wolf.

I would gladly have put your accusations down if they were made around or after when I asked for the list of 2 people. I asked Sunday morning at 7:26AM. http://octopusoverlords.com/forum/viewt ... 6#p1751546" target="_blank

Your post of your accusations came on Friday at 8:36PM. That is almost 36 hours before I posted my question and I didn't go back that far to search for your answer.
http://octopusoverlords.com/forum/viewt ... 7#p1751277" target="_blank

Why would you assume that I would? Why not just throw down a couple of names? We all have suspicions. Well, that is, unless you already know the answers.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:05 pm

I prefer to see who does what, and lay out options. If I don't have a feeling I don't throw out names. <shrug>

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 9:36 pm

RMC wrote:I prefer to see who does what, and lay out options. If I don't have a feeling I don't throw out names. <shrug>

Says the guy who entered the game by flinging a vote against triggercut and then admitting that he hadn't even read the thread yet....

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 11:18 pm

A very interesting day in the village.

This exchange seems to sum up the day:

Grundbegriff wrote:
bb2112 wrote:The good news is we either we have a wolf in Pr0ner or one in Grund. Unless something really strange happens and someone else comes forward as Seer.

There are many ways this could play out, depending on how well the players know and trust one another.

This much seems obvious, though: it's time for pr0ner to go.

It is indeed good news that we have a wolf in either pr0ner or Grund. (There's even the slight possibility that they are both wolves looking to bestow some significant goodwill on Grund, but that play seems incredibly risky and unlikely, since it would require triggy to have been the true Seer. (Surely, if Newcastle were the Seer, he would have revealed at n-1)).

We do have to factor in that Grund claimed Seer after bb2112 pushed for Grund's lynch (a campaign I must admit that I may have joined).

Trust (as Grund refers to) is always an intriguing commodity in these games. I'm inclined to follow Grund's claim and see what pr0ner's death tells us. Good or bad, pr0ner's death will give us a lot of hard data to work with (it better, because if pr0ner comes up good, we will be out of misses).

My plan, barring any further developments, is to place a vote on pr0ner.

To reiterate bb2112's request:

bb2112 wrote:Pr0ner, it doesn't look good for you. Do you have anything you want to say before we vote?

I do think it behooves us to wait for Isgrimnur to check in, to see if he has anything to add about today's events.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 12:06 am

Qantaga wrote:It is indeed good news that we have a wolf in either pr0ner or Grund. (There's even the slight possibility that they are both wolves looking to bestow some significant goodwill on Grund

Other combinations are possible, too. Especially if I'm feeling capricious or adventuresome.

but that play seems incredibly risky and unlikely, since it would require triggy to have been the true Seer. (Surely, if Newcastle were the Seer, he would have revealed at n-1)).

Let's say for the sake of argument that I'm not the Seer. With two dead and myself excluded, and with 9 at the outset, there's a 25% chance that either Newcastle or triggercut was the Seer.

Newcastle, of course, departed this life with protestations of simple villageousness on his lips. Granting his word, that would mean 12.5% as the chance that triggercut took the crystal ball with him.

Let's say, further, that I'm not the Seer but a simple villager trusting that the actual Seer will recognize my move as a covering move aimed at protecting him. What might make that a good bet? First, that it would be utter folly for a wolf to claim Seer with only a 12.5% chance of going uncontested. Knowing that I wouldn't commit such a blunder, a Seer might well recognize in my claim a valiant effort to defend his interests through misdirection.

As we'll undoubtedly see in these tournament games, there's still considerable room for gambits even in a cast with few specials.

We do have to factor in that Grund claimed Seer after bb2112 pushed for Grund's lynch (a campaign I must admit that I may have joined).

If you must.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 12:36 am

theohall wrote: Nothing about anything pr0ner has done in this game reads anything like he has stated in any game where he has been innocent.

It's kind of funny he is suddenly replying when being accused again, instead of making his own statements essentially ignoring us.

The innocent usually go with "You are wrong. I am a villager" whenever pr0ner is innocent. This time around all he has done is counter-accuse while trying to obfuscate facts - like triggercut actually agreeing with Grundbegriff and I irt RMC, which was posted later. Nice that pr0ner never bothers to mention it is actually posted later, then how convenient that triggercut is dead.

Still spewing lies and bullshit, I see.

I have proof. Where's yours?

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 6:59 am

Grundbegriff wrote:
RMC wrote:I prefer to see who does what, and lay out options. If I don't have a feeling I don't throw out names. <shrug>
Says the guy who entered the game by flinging a vote against triggercut and then admitting that he hadn't even read the thread yet....

I was at work, between meetings and scanned the thread, I read newcastles post, and mistakenly thought it meant that Trig was the person who started the voting against me.

I did not say, I did not read the thread, and have been very deliberate in my postings since my first mistake. <shrug> make what you will of it.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 10:22 am

Ok, since the accuse and reveal made by Grund...

1. pr0ner - Responded
2. Qantaga - Responded
3. Isgrimnur - ?
5. RMC - Responded
6. theohall - Responded
7. bb2112 - Responded
8. Grundbegriff - Responded

We should give Issy a little more time to respond then make our vote.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 10:32 am

I'm down with testing Pr0ner

. If he comes up villager, my next votes will be Grund and theo.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 10:42 am

The next vote puts him in the gibbet.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:22 am

Pr0ner

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:23 am

bb2112 wrote: Pr0ner

Heh.

This should be interesting.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:45 am

Grundbegriff wrote: Heh.

This should be interesting.

It better not be.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:48 am

bb2112 wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote: Heh.
This should be interesting.
It better not be.

Don't worry. I think he's a wolf. Nothing else could account for his vituperative misbehavior.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:53 am

You think he's a wolf?!?!?

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:54 am

Sometimes you've gotta roll a hard six.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Tue Sep 06, 2011 11:57 am

to quote Chaos

WTF