OOWL Game 2, Wolf Victory

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 3:06 pm

I completely agree the Seer should name his scans.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 3:59 pm

I am not the seer, but I am leaning towards Theohall or Remus West.

Not sure which, but I would also like to hear the seer.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 4:44 pm

not the seer

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 4:45 pm

While we are waiting for the Seer, I'd like to hear Remus's reason I am supposedly the wolf, since he didn't bother to mention one.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 5:44 pm

theohall wrote:While we are waiting for the Seer, I'd like to hear Remus's reason I am supposedly the wolf, since he didn't bother to mention one.

Why else come out and attack directly at me both days? The "reason" you posted is stupid at best. If you read the post you can tell it is stream of thought and that I went directly to the idea of trying to run triggercut up even with the time limit. You wish to present it as otherwise you may but that vote switch was the entire change behind the run on you and the lynch of triggercut. Then you tack on the idea that bb2112 is killed because I like to see him dead. Wrong again. I don't like to see him dead. I like to see him lynched. That's funny. Death in the night is dull even if I were a wolf. Where is the fun in offing him when he can not fight back?

I think you decided that you could get me lynched today which is why you switched to Scoop yesterday.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 6:31 pm

Remus West wrote:Where is the fun in offing him when he can not fight back?

Precisely because he cannot fight back.

So your entire reasoning is essentially the triggercut principle. That seems like pretty weak sauce.

Still need to hear for Issy and hope he is our Seer. I would be happy to be wrong about Remus if the Seer says otherwise, but a "stream of consciousness" post in a WW game?? Everyone here is too careful to just post straight stream of consciousness.

Just hope bb2112 wasn't our Seer.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 7:11 pm

Nope, not the seer. Sorry.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 8:18 pm

looks like no one is claiming the role. Your move Remus.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 9:34 pm

Lassr wrote:Your move Remus.

Why? You want to wait for me before making one of your own?

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 9:41 pm

I was expecting you to claim seer.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Sun Sep 25, 2011 9:42 pm

Lassr wrote:I was expecting you to claim seer.

No. I'm not the Seer.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 9:36 am

Since we have no Seer, might as well start discussing stuff.

I think Remus is the wolf and vice versa.

What say you other three?

Lassr, do you still feel Isgrimnur is a wolf as you did on day one, or is there someone else more likely?
RMC, what is your opinion on any of us?
Isgrimnur, what is your opinion on any of us?

Those last two look suspicious for essentially not having any opinion, but Issy and RMC have both done that before.

My fear is if I am wrong about Remus and we kill him, you then kill me and the lone remaining wolf wins. By the same token, if you kill me first, you likely kill Remus next and the wolf again wins.

If someone has better thoughts out there, we need to hear it.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 10:10 am

My initial gut reaction is that it is Remus. Why? It is more a feeling than anything concrete.

But I am going to read everything BB posted, and see if it was a frame up to kill BB, or if he actually gave something away.

Because if we have no seer, then BB was the seer and had one scanned good, right? His second scan would have been today..

Opinion tonight.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 10:27 am

I was picking on Isgrimnur originally because of the random.org use to pick Grund. Nothing concrete, but yesterday's combative replies to my vote for him raised my eyebrows. I'm not sure he's my leading candidate at the moment though. SOme other things have caught my attention. Analyzing...

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 10:29 am

theohall wrote: Now one of the folks Remus always likes to see dead, bb2112, is killed in the night.

Remus West

this is what's bothering me so much.

that seems so like a setup.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 10:33 am

Lassr wrote:
theohall wrote: Now one of the folks Remus always likes to see dead, bb2112, is killed in the night.

Remus West

this is what's bothering me so much.

that seems so like a setup.

Or a cover, because Remus West can be that devious.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 10:44 am

I've been thinking about this game and I really do not like the direction this is headed. If I am wrong about theohall (and I have large doubts which I will get into later) then he is a miss. Yet if you lynch me first you will be tempted to lynch him next because he has pushed so hard for me and those two misses would be the end of the village. This is not between theohall and I alone. I think we all need to step back from the thread and look at each player and what they have done/said.

I think we also need to look through bb2112's posts to see if he hints at anything as I am assuming he was the Seer (based off the idea that Scoop said he wasn't and Grundbegriff likely would have tried a different tactic in an effort to stay alive a night if he were). If bb2112 were the Seer then he may have left a clue as to who he had scanned that first night.

I do not have time right now but I should this afternoon/evening to go back through and see what I can glean.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 10:48 am

I don't think Lassr is a wolf, just misguided in his earlier pursuit of me. I hate that any semblance of defensiveness in these games raises people's suspicions. I'm just glad that the wolf didn't eat him and try to frame me.

Remus is always a suspect due to his skill at these things.

RMC has been relatively quiet, posting just enough to stay off everyone's radar as a complete silent. I think that could possibly be wolfy behavior.

I don't really have much of an inkling on theo, and wouldn't put him in a threat category at the moment.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 11:06 am

luckily it's only 7 pages to reread unlike some games.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 11:17 am

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 1:48 pm

on reread I really saw nothing that pointed to bb2112 hinting he was the seer. He may have died because Grund listed him as most likely good.

Only thing I could see that could be a hint of a scan was when he asked theohall why he thought Remus was a wolf.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 1:54 pm

I keep thinking Grund could have been the seer but didn't want to announce it hoping they would leave him alive in their search for the seer.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 1:57 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:I don't think Lassr is a wolf, just misguided in his earlier pursuit of me. I hate that any semblance of defensiveness in these games raises people's suspicions. I'm just glad that the wolf didn't eat him and try to frame me.

It wasn't so much the defensiveness, it was how you did it. It seemed out of character from what I had seen from you.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 1:58 pm

Fair enough. I'm trying to break out of form, as I've gotten the Lesser tru1cy designation as a quiet one. And I understand that changes of form tend to raise people's hackles, as it were.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 2:00 pm

Lassr wrote:I keep thinking Grund could have been the seer but didn't want to announce it hoping they would leave him alive in their search for the seer.

I haven't gotten in a reread yet but this is certainly possible.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 2:06 pm

withdraw Remus West

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 2:16 pm

Remus West wrote:
Lassr wrote:I keep thinking Grund could have been the seer but didn't want to announce it hoping they would leave him alive in their search for the seer.
I haven't gotten in a reread yet but this is certainly possible.

well, problem with that theory is Grund wouldn't have had a scan on day 1. So triggercut would have been an educated guess and not a scan. But if he had guessed wrong then he may still be alive today.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 2:51 pm

Lassr wrote:
Remus West wrote:
Lassr wrote:I keep thinking Grund could have been the seer but didn't want to announce it hoping they would leave him alive in their search for the seer.
I haven't gotten in a reread yet but this is certainly possible.
well, problem with that theory is Grund wouldn't have had a scan on day 1. So triggercut would have been an educated guess and not a scan. But if he had guessed wrong then he may still be alive today.

Grund made an educated guess on triggercut regardless of his role, yes. However, if there is a hint of Seerness from him I would think that would cement him as normal as he would not be interested in increasing the odds of getting eaten unless he were powerless.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 3:35 pm

theohall wrote:I am only a villager and will be your first strike. But them is the breaks sometimes.

link to post
Due to the timing of this post (3 hours to first deadline) along with some other things that I'll elaborate more on further later I believe this to be true.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 3:35 pm

Doing a re-read now. Will see if anything from bb2112 stands out.

Right now, having already re-read the Lassr/Isgrimnur exchange, it does cast some doubt on Isgrminur for his reaction, but it also seems kind of tongue-and-cheek at the same time.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 3:37 pm

Remus West wrote:Blah blah blah. Someone cast the final vote on theohall. We do not have time to run anyone else up and he has already claimed villager so no Seer damage there. Even if we managed to run a wolf up they would simply claim Seer and we would back off. Although as I type that it occurs to me that a wolf crying Seer this late can not hope to out the true one...then when they survive the night (as there would be absolutely zero reason for the wolves not to kill him) we know.

triggercut

I'll check back in a few.

link to post
This is the one that theohall feels incriminates me because I call for someone to put the last vote on him in the first sentence. What he fails to note is that by moving my vote he is no longer at n-1 by the end of my post. I think that a mark in my favor but you make of it what you will.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 3:41 pm

Starting here is an interesting little rush. triggercut goes from 2 votes to dead within 8 minutes with votes from Grundbegriff, bb2112 (both obviously innocent), and Lassr. He had not posted a thing since receiving his first vote at 7:35 and being voted over at 8:44 yet Lassr did not seem worried about the prospect of possibly killing the Seer. Mark against Lassr.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 3:43 pm

bb2112 wrote:Damn, was hoping to see the results. I will have to see it tomorrow. Sigh...

link
in maybe the most reaching search for a hint ever the repeated use of "see" caught my attention.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 3:47 pm

theohall wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
theohall wrote: triggercut

Let's not forget this, too. theohall was on triggercut early.

Someone should do a vote recap.
Two reasons for that vote:

1) Your take on triggercut, his principle, his lack of participation
2) Me being at N-1 and triggercut having the opportunity to finish me off, yet did not cast that killing vote and didn't have a vote on anyone.

It was the combination of those two factors which led to that vote. But it wasn't the impetus which caused others to change their mind - except Remus who, to me, surprisingly, switched to triggercut. Remus's post, including mentioning the deadline, caused the others to pile on.

link
This bothers me. Why didn't triggercut cast the final vote on theohall? Why would he have held off? Only reason I can think of is that theohall is his partner but as noted I've developed doubts.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 3:49 pm

Remus West wrote:Starting here is an interesting little rush. triggercut goes from 2 votes to dead within 8 minutes with votes from Grundbegriff, bb2112 (both obviously innocent), and Lassr. He had not posted a thing since receiving his first vote at 7:35 and being voted over at 8:44 yet Lassr did not seem worried about the prospect of possibly killing the Seer. Mark against Lassr.

well, we had 19 minutes to go and I was on the computer at the time...someone had to do it.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 3:49 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:Questions:

1. Why didn't theohall die when he was at (4) == N-1? triggercut could've slain him but did not. Why would a wolf not take advantage of this perfect cover?

2. Against theohall(2): Scoop, bb2112, RMC, Remus, bb2112

3. Against triggercut(5): Remus, Grundbegriff, bb2112, theohall, Remus, Grundbegriff, bb2112, Lassr

The fact that theohall was first on the final (i.e., third) run on triggercut does not at all imply that theohall is innocent.

link
Nice run down here. Looking at this I'd place a mark against RMC and theohall.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 3:52 pm

triggercut wrote:BTW, the vote count posted by pr0ner at the top of the page is incorrect.

Interesting.

theohall--and correct my count if I'm mistaken--had 3 votes on him at the time pr0ner posted his update: bb2112, RMC, and Scoop.

bb2112 pulled his vote out of that.

Interesting.

None of the three said anything to correct pr0ner's count of the votes.

Interesting.

Scoop and bb2112 have both been posting and thus reading the game and this particular page today.

Interesting.

Maybe it means nothing at all, just a series of coincidental mistakes. Maybe at least one of our three wolves is in that group.

triggercut names RMC, bb2112, Scoop as potential wolves. This was early, so it kind of exonerates RMC.

Isgrimnur missed the triggercut vote while playing games, but did put Scoop back at N-1 after Remus had backed off while RMC cast the killing vote. Lassr stuck to his guns on Isgrimnur, while Remus did not get the opportunity to vote again before the lynch.

Still going through bb2112's stuff, but haven't found a suspect, yet.

triggercut never mentioning Isgrimnur or Lassr kind of stands out also.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 3:54 pm

Remus West wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Questions:

1. Why didn't theohall die when he was at (4) == N-1? triggercut could've slain him but did not. Why would a wolf not take advantage of this perfect cover?

2. Against theohall(2): Scoop, bb2112, RMC, Remus, bb2112

3. Against triggercut(5): Remus, Grundbegriff, bb2112, theohall, Remus, Grundbegriff, bb2112, Lassr

The fact that theohall was first on the final (i.e., third) run on triggercut does not at all imply that theohall is innocent.
link
Nice run down here. Looking at this I'd place a mark against RMC and theohall.

The same logic places the mark against you. Casting the 2nd vote on triggercut does not exonerate you, either, but you are looking innocent right now. The fact triggercut specifically named RMC as a wolf in an earlier post raises my doubts about his wolfiness.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 3:55 pm

RMC wrote:Sorry scoop, not seer check, might be wolf check...

what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas...

Scoop

link
RMC makes note that Scoop is not the Seer. Contrasts directly with Lassr's action on day 1.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 3:57 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:I don't think Lassr is a wolf

link
Why not?

alos please note that this is an abbreviated post and not the entire thing as I had been doing.