OOWL Game 2, Wolf Victory

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 4:01 pm

theohall wrote:
Remus West wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Questions:

1. Why didn't theohall die when he was at (4) == N-1? triggercut could've slain him but did not. Why would a wolf not take advantage of this perfect cover?

2. Against theohall(2): Scoop, bb2112, RMC, Remus, bb2112

3. Against triggercut(5): Remus, Grundbegriff, bb2112, theohall, Remus, Grundbegriff, bb2112, Lassr

The fact that theohall was first on the final (i.e., third) run on triggercut does not at all imply that theohall is innocent.
link
Nice run down here. Looking at this I'd place a mark against RMC and theohall.
The same logic places the mark against you. Casting the 2nd vote on triggercut does not exonerate you, either, but you are looking innocent right now. The fact triggercut specifically named RMC as a wolf in an earlier post raises my doubts about his wolfiness.

I wasn't looking for exoneration from that. I was looking at things that made people look wolfish. For instance, triggercut not casting the final vote on you. Makes you look guilty while RMC being the last living person that was voting you makes him look bad as a wolfy RMC may be the reason a wolfy triggercut did not want on that vote.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 4:03 pm

Re-read of bb2112 revealed nothing other than what Remus West already mentioned.

This is what I got right now:

1) Remus West and I are both innocent, but suspect each other as being the wolf (this is an assumption based on what is happening right now)
2) RMC was named as a potential wolf by triggercut along with two other innocents
3) RMC was careful about placing a final vote so as not to kill the Seer.
4) Lassr didn't care about potentially killing the Seer, but if he was a wolf, he cast the killing vote on his partner - not necessarily a mark which proves him, but hints he had knowledge of trig not being the Seer which only the wolves would know and the vote is seen as helping to prove him potentially.
5) Lassr appears to be setting up Isgrimnur who hasn't been mentioned significantly by anyone except Lassr. Isgrminur could still be a wolf, since trig never mentioned him either. Triggercut also avoided mentioning Lassr

So this is what I got:

RMC - likely villager
Remus West - likely villager
theohall - villager
Lassr - wolf framing Isgrimnur or villager.
Isgrminur - frustrated villager who hasn't been around when important things happen, or he is the wolf Lassr says he is.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 4:04 pm

Remus West wrote:
theohall wrote:
Remus West wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Questions:

1. Why didn't theohall die when he was at (4) == N-1? triggercut could've slain him but did not. Why would a wolf not take advantage of this perfect cover?

2. Against theohall(2): Scoop, bb2112, RMC, Remus, bb2112

3. Against triggercut(5): Remus, Grundbegriff, bb2112, theohall, Remus, Grundbegriff, bb2112, Lassr

The fact that theohall was first on the final (i.e., third) run on triggercut does not at all imply that theohall is innocent.
link
Nice run down here. Looking at this I'd place a mark against RMC and theohall.
The same logic places the mark against you. Casting the 2nd vote on triggercut does not exonerate you, either, but you are looking innocent right now. The fact triggercut specifically named RMC as a wolf in an earlier post raises my doubts about his wolfiness.
I wasn't looking for exoneration from that. I was looking at things that made people look wolfish. For instance, triggercut not casting the final vote on you. Makes you look guilty while RMC being the last living person that was voting you makes him look bad as a wolfy RMC may be the reason a wolfy triggercut did not want on that vote.

Understood.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 4:04 pm

I should also note that I had no intention of getting back on the Scoop vote. By the time he was lynched he had demonstrated that he was not really paying attention to the thread (yes, a wolf could fake that but I did not read it that way). Evil Scoop gets giddy. Being alone he would not have been able to resist posting and being on top of events. I'm annoyed that I did nothing to sway the vote away from him. This does nothing to clear me as, obviously, a wolf would have known Scoop was innocent.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 4:08 pm

Re-reading all this stuff and going over the sequence of events, Lassr looks really guilty.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 4:10 pm

Remus West wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:I don't think Lassr is a wolf
link
Why not?

alos please note that this is an abbreviated post and not the entire thing as I had been doing.

I don't know. Just a gut feeling. I find it hard to believe that he'd be that far out front agitating after losing his partner early if he were the wolf. Too easy for that to devolve into the "lynch both and let Mod sort them out if we're wrong on the first one". Of course, there's always the counter-intuitive play as cover, but I don't see it being a long-term play that would result in success with this group. We're usually more than happy to break a couple eggs on the way.

I'll try for a re-read this evening and see if I can come up with something more substantive, but it will shock me if Lassr comes up as the last wolf.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 4:12 pm

theohall wrote:Re-reading all this stuff and going over the sequence of events, Lassr looks really guilty.

you two have gotten really cuddly. one of you is probably the wolf buttering the other one up.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 4:14 pm

If I go with my gut which had served me well in the other game then I still say Isgrimnur.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 6:08 pm

Lassr wrote:If I go with my gut which had served me well in the other game then I still say Isgrimnur.

Why? All you have done the entire game is accuse Isgrimnur and cast the killing vote on triggercut without any concern about him being the Seer, which looks very suspicious.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 7:04 pm

Why?

Because I poked him with a vote for using random.org. A move I've seen used by a wolf.
Next day when I voted for him he got very defensive which was not something I had seen from Isgrimnur after 1 vote.
Today he is saying he thinks I'm not a wolf, feels like he's trying to get on my good side (another move I've seen before).
All that adds up to feeling wrong to me.

I guess I could have laid back on that vote of triggercut and let it possibly slip into night without a kill. I would think the seer would show up before the deadline to make sure he wasn't about to get wasted.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 7:52 pm

Lassr wrote:Why?

Because I poked him with a vote for using random.org. A move I've seen used by a wolf.
Next day when I voted for him he got very defensive which was not something I had seen from Isgrimnur after 1 vote.
Today he is saying he thinks I'm not a wolf, feels like he's trying to get on my good side (another move I've seen before).
All that adds up to feeling wrong to me.

I guess I could have laid back on that vote of triggercut and let it possibly slip into night without a kill. I would think the seer would show up before the deadline to make sure he wasn't about to get wasted.

On Day One with minutes to spare?????

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 9:31 pm

I'm torn. If theohall were still focused on me I would say he was almost certainly good. Good theohall tends to lock in on a target and go full speed ahead. Evil theohall can be "reasoned" with. I feel like this theohall is being reasonable which makes me think evil. Particularly when combined with triggercut passing on voting for him. Trouble is, if theohall and triggercut were the wolves then theohall's vote on triggercut would have been out of acceptance that theohall was dead and therefore triggercut would have cast the killing vote. I guess I tentatively come to the conclusion that theohall is good and if he is evil I will be very annoyed.

That leaves Lassr, RMC, and Isgrimnur.

Lassr - killed triggercut day one without letting him speak between the first vote he received and the last. Implies he was not worried about the Seer. I initially took this to mean HE was the Seer. He says not. Thus it makes him look wolfy. A bit. I have a hard time thinking a wolf would cast the final vote on his partner with so little time to go before the deadline. Better by far to go into the night with no lynch if he were a wolf. He easily could have posted a desire not to kill triggercut before allowing him to speak and thus gotten away with a no vote on day 1 then lynched him day 2 if he needed to do so. I guess I lean not evil for him.

Isgrimnur - defensive reactions to being poked and relative activity early are both odd. He says he is just trying to avoid remaining tru1cy-lite. I'm not sure I believe it 100% but I wish to encourage him and besides he is less bothersome than....

RMC - Casts the killing vote on Scoop. Made certain we were all aware that Scoop was not the Seer but was suspicious. He didn't say why he felt Scoop was suspicious though. He was named in a group of three with 2 innocents by triggercut. I doubt triggercut would group innocents alone. I think he would feel the need to "hide" his partner in there. Here he noted that Scoop hasn't been around at all. Then here he casts the final vote on Scoop a full day before the deadline but after Scoop has posted that he really hasn't seen much or been paying much attention. RMC is the last living player to have been voting theohall when theohall was at n-1 that I can not be 100% sure is not a wolf. Its the only thing I can think would stay triggercut's vote that first day.

I think the final wolf is RMC.

The last thing that really caught my attention was this.

RMC wrote:So nothing stands out yet, other than a lot of assusations, including someone accusing themselves..Gotta love that one Remus, it's gonna play havoc in the late game..

Why does he think I'll be around in the late game for that to be an issue?

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 9:49 pm

So RMC or Lassr. The lack of focus on Isgrimnur from anyone, but Lassr still stands out, though.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 9:53 pm

theohall wrote:So RMC or Lassr. The lack of focus on Isgrimnur from anyone, but Lassr still stands out, though.

I'll admit it bothers me about both of them. Lassr targeting him and Isgrimnur's defensiveness. That said, nobody is really after either one of us save when we were both after each other. Sort of the same situation. Nobody was paying attention to RMC. And why do you make me doubt myself with every post? I so want to lynch you just to be sure.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 10:15 pm

I don't know what to make of RMC. Being so quiet makes it difficult to read him. I'll admit he was last on my list at the moment simply because of that fact. I keep thinking it would be nice to test him and if he comes back villager at least on the last day we have active players to work with and read their posts.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 10:16 pm

Remus West wrote:
theohall wrote:So RMC or Lassr. The lack of focus on Isgrimnur from anyone, but Lassr still stands out, though.
I'll admit it bothers me about both of them. Lassr targeting him and Isgrimnur's defensiveness. That said, nobody is really after either one of us save when we were both after each other. Sort of the same situation. Nobody was paying attention to RMC. And why do you make me doubt myself with every post? I so want to lynch you just to be sure.

I kinda feel the same way, but would rather catch the wolf.

RMC

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 10:48 pm

I'll put him on the edge. He's been hiding quietly. Let's see if he squawks when his neck's on the line.

RMC

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 11:04 pm

Way too quick on that trigger.

withdraw RMC

Isgrimnur

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Sep 26, 2011 11:53 pm

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 12:03 am

Isgrimnur wrote:

That's all you've got??

I like my thoughts now.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 12:07 am

Like them all you want. I checked in between watching the Dallas game and cleaning my apartment. Somehow thirty minutes is quick. Were you just waiting for someone to agree with you so you could go all angry monkey?

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 12:53 am

Isgrimnur wrote:Like them all you want. I checked in between watching the Dallas game and cleaning my apartment. Somehow thirty minutes is quick. Were you just waiting for someone to agree with you so you could go all angry monkey?

So agreeing equals accusing you?

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 1:02 am

No, I'm pretty sure the vote does that.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 2:30 am

Isgrimnur wrote:No, I'm pretty sure the vote does that.

This makes no sense, wolf.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 8:43 am

1. RMC
2. Remus West
3. Isgrimnur - RMC
8. theohall - Remus West RMC Isgrimnur
9. lassr

RMC (1) - Isgrimnur
Isgrimnur (1) - theohall

triggercut - lynched - wolf
Grundbegriff - beheaded in the night
scoop20906 - lynched - villager
bb2112 - disemboweled in the night

Majority is 3.
Deadline is Wednesday at 9 PM.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 10:40 am

theohall wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:No, I'm pretty sure the vote does that.
This makes no sense, wolf.

He is saying that you voting for him is the same as you accusing him. Makes perfect sense to me.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 10:56 am

If it were any earlier stage in the game, I'd be trading my RMC vote for you at the moment, theo.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:44 am

Geez, it's a target rich environment. I'd feel ok voting for nearly everyone of you.

RMC, you have any input here?

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:57 am

Remus West wrote:I got something for all of you too.

and you suggested that this plan was not a good one. I stand by my initial assessment.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 12:03 pm

Lassr, did you ever open your present?

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 12:22 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:Lassr, did you ever open your present?

Yes, and I plan on using them soon.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 3:29 pm

Three hours with no movement. Are we going to wait until tomorrow for another race to the wire?

I ask, as I have a doctor's appt this afternoon, and some serious house cleaning to do this evening, so I likely won't have much time tonight to devote to keeping up with any developments.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 3:30 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:Three hours with no movement. Are we going to wait until tomorrow for another race to the wire?

I ask, as I have a doctor's appt this afternoon, and some serious house cleaning to do this evening, so I likely won't have much time tonight to devote to keeping up with any developments.

I'm waiting to hear from RMC before moving further.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 3:43 pm

Fair enough. I'll try to check in while clearing my head from Comet and Clorox fumes.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 8:24 pm

Well let's start here:

pr0ner wrote:1. RMC - scoop20906
2. Remus West - scoop20906
3. Isgrimnur - scoop20906
5. bb2112 - scoop20906
6. scoop20906 - theohall
8. theohall - Remus West scoop20906
9. lassr - Isgrimnur

Isgrimnur (1) - lassr
scoop20906 (4) - RMC, Isgrimnur, bb2112, theohall
theohall (1) - scoop20906

triggercut - lynched - wolf
Grundbegriff - beheaded in the night

We all had time to vote for scoop. I put the final vote on him. Why? Because it seemed that he was a good test.

We all voted on him with the exception of Remus.

Why did Remus withdraw his vote for scoop?

Remus West wrote: Withdraw Scoop

Well no reason given.

So let's go back to some of Remus's other posts:

Remus West wrote:
bb2112 wrote:If Grunge was just fishing and wasn't serious about voting for you, then I switch back to my original vote.
Wow. triggercut is right about you. You do seem to go out of your way to look guilty. I was voting you because it'd be funny but you combine this statement with grund's observation that you were voting against him and then switched to voting with him and now seem to feel you were voting with him only because he you thought he was serious about voting triggercut? Why would you join a guy you voted against if you think he is serious. You're not funny to lynch any more. Jerk.
withdraw bb2112

I think theohall

is closest right now. Lets lynch somebody at least.

Remus switches from BB to Theohall..To lynch 'someone'

Remus West wrote:Blah blah blah. Someone cast the final vote on theohall. We do not have time to run anyone else up and he has already claimed villager so no Seer damage there. Even if we managed to run a wolf up they would simply claim Seer and we would back off. Although as I type that it occurs to me that a wolf crying Seer this late can not hope to out the true one...then when they survive the night (as there would be absolutely zero reason for the wolves not to kill him) we know.

triggercut

I'll check back in a few.

This is great logic..So is it a wolf throwing away his partner? This is day 1, so why would he do that, if he was a wolf unless he thought this would protect him...Risky gamble, but this is Sly Remus.

Earlier in the first day:

pr0ner wrote:1. RMC - theohall
2. Remus West - triggercut Isgrimnur Remus West Grundbegriff
3. Isgrimnur - bb2112 Grundbegriff
4. Grundbegriff
5. bb2112 - Isgrimnur theohall
6. scoop20906 - theohall
7. triggercut - Remus West Grundbegriff
8. theohall - scoop20906 bb2112 Grundbegriff
9. lassr - scoop20906

Grundbegriff (1) - theohall
scoop20906 (1) - lassr
theohall (3) - RMC, bb2112, scoop20906

Majority for lynch: 5
Deadline - Tuesday at 9 PM EDT.

Notice both Remus and Trigger voting for each other, but then jumping to others? Wolves working together? I think this is actually what is happening. It is a great play to work together, and accuse each other. They did not plan on getting caught day 1, so this would have been evidence for late game to confuse the issue.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 8:29 pm

Remus West wrote:I'm torn. If theohall were still focused on me I would say he was almost certainly good. Good theohall tends to lock in on a target and go full speed ahead. Evil theohall can be "reasoned" with. I feel like this theohall is being reasonable which makes me think evil. Particularly when combined with triggercut passing on voting for him. Trouble is, if theohall and triggercut were the wolves then theohall's vote on triggercut would have been out of acceptance that theohall was dead and therefore triggercut would have cast the killing vote. I guess I tentatively come to the conclusion that theohall is good and if he is evil I will be very annoyed.

That leaves Lassr, RMC, and Isgrimnur.

Lassr - killed triggercut day one without letting him speak between the first vote he received and the last. Implies he was not worried about the Seer. I initially took this to mean HE was the Seer. He says not. Thus it makes him look wolfy. A bit. I have a hard time thinking a wolf would cast the final vote on his partner with so little time to go before the deadline. Better by far to go into the night with no lynch if he were a wolf. He easily could have posted a desire not to kill triggercut before allowing him to speak and thus gotten away with a no vote on day 1 then lynched him day 2 if he needed to do so. I guess I lean not evil for him.

Isgrimnur - defensive reactions to being poked and relative activity early are both odd. He says he is just trying to avoid remaining tru1cy-lite. I'm not sure I believe it 100% but I wish to encourage him and besides he is less bothersome than....

RMC - Casts the killing vote on Scoop. Made certain we were all aware that Scoop was not the Seer but was suspicious. He didn't say why he felt Scoop was suspicious though. He was named in a group of three with 2 innocents by triggercut. I doubt triggercut would group innocents alone. I think he would feel the need to "hide" his partner in there. Here he noted that Scoop hasn't been around at all. Then here he casts the final vote on Scoop a full day before the deadline but after Scoop has posted that he really hasn't seen much or been paying much attention. RMC is the last living player to have been voting theohall when theohall was at n-1 that I can not be 100% sure is not a wolf. Its the only thing I can think would stay triggercut's vote that first day.

I think the final wolf is RMC.

The last thing that really caught my attention was this.
RMC wrote:So nothing stands out yet, other than a lot of assusations, including someone accusing themselves..Gotta love that one Remus, it's gonna play havoc in the late game..
Why does he think I'll be around in the late game for that to be an issue?

I did not know you would be here late game, it was just one of those plays that makes it fun come late game to look over.

And In this case Triggercut did group 3 innocents together, I am not a wolf.

I personally think that Remus is the wolf. After reading through everything I think there is enough to give me pause. <shrug>

So Remus West

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 10:15 pm

If there were enough to give you pause then wouldn't that mean you would pause from voting for me?

I'm going to hold off voting to see what theohall and Lassr do.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 7:02 am

Remus West wrote:If there were enough to give you pause then wouldn't that mean you would pause from voting for me?

I'm going to hold off voting to see what theohall and Lassr do.

How about you actually take a position on someone? This seems wolf-ish by trying to hide behind everyone else's decisions.

withdraw Isgrimnur

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 8:28 am

1. RMC - Remus West
2. Remus West
3. Isgrimnur - RMC
8. theohall - Remus West RMC Isgrimnur
9. lassr

RMC (1) - Isgrimnur
Remus West (1) - RMC

triggercut - lynched - wolf
Grundbegriff - beheaded in the night
scoop20906 - lynched - villager
bb2112 - disemboweled in the night

Majority is 3.
Deadline is Wednesday at 9 PM.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 9:20 am

theohall wrote:
Remus West wrote:If there were enough to give you pause then wouldn't that mean you would pause from voting for me?

I'm going to hold off voting to see what theohall and Lassr do.
How about you actually take a position on someone? This seems wolf-ish by trying to hide behind everyone else's decisions.

withdraw Isgrimnur

I did take a position on RMC. I already said I think he is the last wolf. How is that hiding behind everyone else's decisions?

I will tell you what I am waiting for though. I am waiting to see what you guys have to say regarding RMC's arguments before I rebut them.
Just because I have my position doesn't mean I am sold on it. I remain thinking that RMC is the last wolf. I am not certain and I wish to get as much posting out of the rest of you as possible. How is that wolfish?