[WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Conclusion
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- triggercut
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
Ok, I'm fighting a nasty cold and am Day-Quilled to the gills. This struck me as great insight, but it may also be very clear to everyone already and I'm late to the party. It may also be utter gobbledygook.
Let's assume Team Shadow plays this correctly during the Journey part of the turn. Let's also assume that Frodo holds onto the ring as a constant (which we'll see becomes a *really* bad idea going forward)
1. Night 1, they had about an 18% chance or so of finding the Ring. Night 2, they had a 22% chance of finding the ring. Night 3 that chance goes up to about 29%, if Frodo's held the ring. If he continues to hold it, his odds of keeping it collapse. Night 4 there's a 40% chance they get it. Night 5 they've got a 67% chance of finding it. If Frodo continues to hold the ring, on Night 6 he'll be captured and lose it.
2. Every Hobbit they capture helps the Fellowship *immensely*, and hurts the Shadow. Yes, Gollum may be in that Hobbit mix, but that's an endgame problem I think. (Known Hobbit rollcall ftw!) Any Fellowship ringbearer needs to know who they can hand off to before they're captured or corrupted.
3. Therefore, "Hunting Some Orc" is ALWAYS the best play if it is available and the Fellowship controls the ring.
Let's assume Team Shadow plays this correctly during the Journey part of the turn. Let's also assume that Frodo holds onto the ring as a constant (which we'll see becomes a *really* bad idea going forward)
1. Night 1, they had about an 18% chance or so of finding the Ring. Night 2, they had a 22% chance of finding the ring. Night 3 that chance goes up to about 29%, if Frodo's held the ring. If he continues to hold it, his odds of keeping it collapse. Night 4 there's a 40% chance they get it. Night 5 they've got a 67% chance of finding it. If Frodo continues to hold the ring, on Night 6 he'll be captured and lose it.
2. Every Hobbit they capture helps the Fellowship *immensely*, and hurts the Shadow. Yes, Gollum may be in that Hobbit mix, but that's an endgame problem I think. (Known Hobbit rollcall ftw!) Any Fellowship ringbearer needs to know who they can hand off to before they're captured or corrupted.
3. Therefore, "Hunting Some Orc" is ALWAYS the best play if it is available and the Fellowship controls the ring.
"It's my manner, sir. It looks insubordinate, but it isn't, really."
- Grundbegriff
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
Yup. Frodo's lot in life is to execute with perfect timing... whatever that turns out to be.Remus West wrote:For this to be true, bb2112 - as Frodo, would have had to have passed the Ring since we still control it.
If he thought, for example, that tru1cy was probably a Hobbit and thought that Evil wouldn't regard tru1cy as a likely recipient, he might've gone for it.Why would he have done that? You make no sense.
- Grundbegriff
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
Suppose "they" had some wacky strategy in which they decided to skip killing Free People in order to force us to Hunt Some Orc. How on earth would anyone who had formulated such a strategy execute it? They have no way to guarantee that they'll hit Hobbits, and no way to guarantee that if they hit Hobbits, we'll collectively liberate the captives. So such a strategy would be not only wacky but nearly impossible in practice. Since triggercut knows this, what purpose does his describing this implausible scenario serve?theohall wrote:Seriously, Grundbegriff. What are you talking about?
They've = Sauron's minions. we is the Fellowship. I see nothing wrong with the way that reads. triggercut is simply saying he thinks they, Sauron's minions, have really bad luck OR they, Sauron's minions, are using a bizarre strategy in which we, the Fellowship, are continually allowed to Hunt Some Orc, instead of them, Sauron's minions, actually knocking off Free People at night.triggercut wrote:*Another* hobbit (or perhaps Gollum)? That's either spectacularly bad luck by Sauron's minions...or they've got some wacky strategy in which we Hunt Some Orc in lieu of killing one of the Free People at night (assuming that they've not found our Ringbearer.)
You're seeming unusually sane in this game. You must be on Team Sauron.I get it that you think the second part is supposed to be triggercut saying he is a Servant, but I don't buy it. Just like I didn't buy triggercut jumping all over your earlier post, simply because you didn't mention the part which did not apply to hobbits. I believe you two are mis-guided in going after each other.
protected void sendScount(Fellow fellow) {
doMysteriousStuff(fellow);
}
sendScout(theohall);
- Grundbegriff
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
In that case, they would've attempted to kill/capture elsewhere, n'est-ce pas?triggercut wrote:What's obviously happened is that they've scanned tru1cy and bb2112 both before each became a target. Both came up as not holding the ring.
- Grundbegriff
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
Ah. Bee in bonnet. All make sense now.triggercut wrote:....and I think I see what Grund saw in my post, that was actually me making an error. For some reason I had a fleeting idea that Team Shadow would be told Hobbit or Free People and that for some reason they were targeting Hobbits, knowing that we'd obviously free them in lieu of trying to whittle down their numbers by sending out Scouts...which I justly termed a "wacky" strategy, because I sure couldn't understand why they'd be doing that.
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
If you're Frodo and you decide to pass the ring to tru1cy, and instead of passing it back to you the next night he keeps it, you've found Gollum.pr0ner wrote:I have to agree with Remus here. What Grund says makes no sense. Why would bb2112, as Frodo, risk passing off the ring to tru1cy, who could be Gollum?
Use the grey, people.
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
God bless us, everyone.redrun wrote:BTW, we're up to three times this game that Grund has posted misinformation (failures to understand the rules). At this point, I'm pretty convinced he's using "post bad knowledge, see who corrects" to help team evil weed out Free People from Hobbits. Folks might want to think twice about correcting Grund's mistakes.
- theohall
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
You are right, redrun.Grundbegriff wrote:If you're Frodo and you decide to pass the ring to tru1cy, and instead of passing it back to you the next night he keeps it, you've found Gollum.pr0ner wrote:I have to agree with Remus here. What Grund says makes no sense. Why would bb2112, as Frodo, risk passing off the ring to tru1cy, who could be Gollum?
Use the grey, people.
Since Grundbegriff is again intentionally not stating a clear rule - if Gollum has the ring, it gets announced when the Chapter starts. Also, if we send Gollum Scouting, he gets to pass the ring to anyone he desires - which I highly doubt would be another hobbit. Interesting that GrundbeSaruman doesn't mention this.
Looks like Grundbegriff is friends with Remus West.
- coopasonic
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
That's nuts. There are 3 people Frodo can pass the ring to in order to win the game. Wasting them to check for gollum is insane. Gandalf can check for Gollum without consuming such a precious resource.Grundbegriff wrote:If you're Frodo and you decide to pass the ring to tru1cy, and instead of passing it back to you the next night he keeps it, you've found Gollum.pr0ner wrote:I have to agree with Remus here. What Grund says makes no sense. Why would bb2112, as Frodo, risk passing off the ring to tru1cy, who could be Gollum?
Use the grey, people.
-Coop
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- Newcastle
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
i kind of like this idea; the big thing for us is to insure that we have a clean pass to a hobbit (no gollum) as the final play....one not named frodo.....Grundbegriff wrote:If you're Frodo and you decide to pass the ring to tru1cy, and instead of passing it back to you the next night he keeps it, you've found Gollum.pr0ner wrote:I have to agree with Remus here. What Grund says makes no sense. Why would bb2112, as Frodo, risk passing off the ring to tru1cy, who could be Gollum?
Use the grey, people.
the fact that they uncovered 2 hobbits for us, I think that gives us a huge boost going forward; we have to assume that neither are frodo (if i were frodo, i would sit on that ring for the first few turns to get a feel for the game and not toss it anywhere, and see how things develop).....so based on that i am reasonably sure neither are frodo.....now on second thought though bb could be frodo who did a test toss to truicy though; but i dont think vice versa would be the case as truicy had no reason to "trust" bb up till now.....
i bring that up because...knowing that both truicy and bb are hobbit/gollum gives frodo someone to toss it to at the final moment....only thing is, there is still nagging question of if they are gollum or not...i think its very important that we figure that out....
so how do we figure out if they are fellowship material or not....2 ways that i can think of......
-1. frodo tosses them the ring.....if they toss it back...then they are kosher hobbits
2. gandalf scans them (and announces at a later point they are good hobbits to toss too).
Couple problems with those.....if either are gollum, they arent going to toss it back upon death; however we can potentially appeal to gollum to throw the ring to a known hobbit, especially in the face of a lynch...who knows maybe an appeal good work; also if it backfires frodo has to come out and say that x got the ring and is gollum....
that reveals gollum....so thats a problem there too, i think frodo is best hidden for us.....or we can lynch both of them which would cause us to lose hobbits status....or we could potentially speak in the fellowship that 1 of them gets the ring first....and if next turn gollum has it, we lynch them?
-if gandalf scans them...downside is that it risks wasting a scan looking for team evil...upside is that we can prove a hobbit 100%; other downside is that gandalf could potentially be killed at night.....not sure what the best thing for him right now is....i am torn between that....i think clearing hobbits is pretty important, smiply for end game considerations....
my main goal with this is to figure out how we can safely and securely pass the ring to a 100% pure hobbit at the end.
curious target selection of BB; cant recall he's said much shocking one way or another; he's been active though...but not much discussion to really categorize him silent or not...whcih truicy kind of stated....
hmm much to think about
/sticks some weed in his pipe
/wanders off for more coffee and a leg of lamb
Bayraktar!!!!
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Trump and the GOP; putting the banana in our Republic.
- theohall
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
Actually, Frodo could pass to a fourth person, Gollum, if it is the last Journey when he passes the Ring.coopasonic wrote:That's nuts. There are 3 people Frodo can pass the ring to in order to win the game. Wasting them to check for gollum is insane. Gandalf can check for Gollum without consuming such a precious resource.Grundbegriff wrote:If you're Frodo and you decide to pass the ring to tru1cy, and instead of passing it back to you the next night he keeps it, you've found Gollum.pr0ner wrote:I have to agree with Remus here. What Grund says makes no sense. Why would bb2112, as Frodo, risk passing off the ring to tru1cy, who could be Gollum?
Use the grey, people.
- coopasonic
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
Theo is right about this (and I missed it, I think I am finally starting to understand the game), if the final pass goes to gollum we still win.Newcastle wrote: my main goal with this is to figure out how we can safely and securely pass the ring to a 100% pure hobbit at the end.
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- Newcastle
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
coopasonic wrote:Theo is right about this (and I missed it, I think I am finally starting to understand the game), if the final pass goes to gollum we still win.Newcastle wrote: my main goal with this is to figure out how we can safely and securely pass the ring to a 100% pure hobbit at the end.
gotcha...so that means my brilliant, coffee induced brain-gasm was a worthless post....
/sigh
/constinues to search for relevance
what that does mean though, is that frodo doesnt need to toss the ring about; he can safely hang on to it, since he's got (1 or 2) options to toss the ring too. So the better play at this moment then is for him to continue hanging on to the ring, unless he's threatened or caught.
That also means gandalf should continue scanning players not named truicy & bb...since it's best for him to uncover evil still and maybe through his searches find gollum and if thats the case...eliminate him.
Bayraktar!!!!
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Trump and the GOP; putting the banana in our Republic.
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
Why would we want to eliminate Gollum? He is a safe pass for the final day and has no resourse for actually locating the ring on his own. As long as it stays hidden he is relatively harmless compared to the three Servants.Newcastle wrote:That also means gandalf should continue scanning players not named truicy & bb...since it's best for him to uncover evil still and maybe through his searches find gollum and if thats the case...eliminate him.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
- theohall
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
The issue we have is limited time. With the Servants scanning for the Ringbearer while capturing someone else, they are checking two Fellowship members every evening. (not sure on the order thing, though). When they find the Ringbearer, we won't know until they Imprison him - which is what I would do if I were Saruman. Let them scan/capture two each night, then Imprison the Ringbearer the next night when he has been identified.Newcastle wrote:coopasonic wrote:Theo is right about this (and I missed it, I think I am finally starting to understand the game), if the final pass goes to gollum we still win.Newcastle wrote: my main goal with this is to figure out how we can safely and securely pass the ring to a 100% pure hobbit at the end.
gotcha...so that means my brilliant, coffee induced brain-gasm was a worthless post....
/sigh
/constinues to search for relevance
what that does mean though, is that frodo doesnt need to toss the ring about; he can safely hang on to it, since he's got (1 or 2) options to toss the ring too. So the better play at this moment then is for him to continue hanging on to the ring, unless he's threatened or caught.
That also means gandalf should continue scanning players not named truicy & bb...since it's best for him to uncover evil still and maybe through his searches find gollum and if thats the case...eliminate him.
Just to show the time constraint issue - with 3 Servants, there are 10 Free Peoples/Hobbits and Gollum (11 scans)
Journey 1 - scan someone else/capture tru1cy - 2 of 11
Journey 2 - scan someone else/capture bb2112 - 4 of 11
Journey 3 - scan someone else/capture or kill someone else - 6 of 11
Journey 4 - scan someone else/capture or kill someone else - 8 of 11
Journey 5 - scan someone else/capture or kill someone else - 10 of 11
Journey 6 - if the ring hasn't passed, yet, evil gets the ring and the Fellowship is likely screwed.
Journey 7
If they have not found the Ringbearer through Journey 5, they will already know the Ringbearer's identity when Chapter 5 starts. If they have found the Ringbearer, Saruman will Imprison him, if he is still alive. These first few Journeys, it is more important for Gandalf to find evil, stay alive, and announce whatever he finds in order to limit what evil can do prior to the end game.
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
why eliminate gollum..because he can steal from the ringbearer? if he does that...how we gonna get it back?Remus West wrote:Why would we want to eliminate Gollum? He is a safe pass for the final day and has no resourse for actually locating the ring on his own. As long as it stays hidden he is relatively harmless compared to the three Servants.Newcastle wrote:That also means gandalf should continue scanning players not named truicy & bb...since it's best for him to uncover evil still and maybe through his searches find gollum and if thats the case...eliminate him.
Bayraktar!!!!
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Trump and the GOP; putting the banana in our Republic.
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
If we have already identified him? Geee....maybe just beat it out of him? How is he going to steal it from the Ringbearer if he doesn't know who the Ringbearer is? All I'm saying is that searching for the three Sevrants takes priority over killing Gollum in my opinion. How does it not make sense to focus on removing the ones who can find the ring and take it rather than the guy who can only take it if he gets lucky?Newcastle wrote:why eliminate gollum..because he can steal from the ringbearer? if he does that...how we gonna get it back?Remus West wrote:Why would we want to eliminate Gollum? He is a safe pass for the final day and has no resourse for actually locating the ring on his own. As long as it stays hidden he is relatively harmless compared to the three Servants.Newcastle wrote:That also means gandalf should continue scanning players not named truicy & bb...since it's best for him to uncover evil still and maybe through his searches find gollum and if thats the case...eliminate him.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
- Newcastle
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
true...but the most likely way we identify him would be via gandalfs reveal or the known hobbits play pass the ring...just it makes me nervous that not only do we have to look out for team evil; but we also have a monkey wrench waiting to happen named gollum is all. and taking out that monkey wrench would elimiinate any chaos they can cause is all along with team evil....any chance to take them out...is a positive gain for hte fellowship.....Remus West wrote:If we have already identified him? Geee....maybe just beat it out of him? How is he going to steal it from the Ringbearer if he doesn't know who the Ringbearer is? All I'm saying is that searching for the three Sevrants takes priority over killing Gollum in my opinion. How does it not make sense to focus on removing the ones who can find the ring and take it rather than the guy who can only take it if he gets lucky?Newcastle wrote:why eliminate gollum..because he can steal from the ringbearer? if he does that...how we gonna get it back?Remus West wrote:Why would we want to eliminate Gollum? He is a safe pass for the final day and has no resourse for actually locating the ring on his own. As long as it stays hidden he is relatively harmless compared to the three Servants.Newcastle wrote:That also means gandalf should continue scanning players not named truicy & bb...since it's best for him to uncover evil still and maybe through his searches find gollum and if thats the case...eliminate him.
Bayraktar!!!!
Trump and the GOP; putting the banana in our Republic.
Trump and the GOP; putting the banana in our Republic.
- Lagom Lite
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
No. Results of the WK scan and Uruk hunt are presented simultaneously.triggercut wrote:Lagom: does the Witch King get his scan result before the Servants pick their target for kill/capture?
But you've seen who's in heaven
Is there anyone in hell?
"Lagom you are a smooth tongued devil, and an opportunistic monster" - OOWW Game Club
Is there anyone in hell?
"Lagom you are a smooth tongued devil, and an opportunistic monster" - OOWW Game Club
- Lagom Lite
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[WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
Hunt Some Orc (7) - tru1cy, rshetts2, RMC, coopasonic, theohall, triggercut, Qantaga
Voting is closed.
Voting is closed.
But you've seen who's in heaven
Is there anyone in hell?
"Lagom you are a smooth tongued devil, and an opportunistic monster" - OOWW Game Club
Is there anyone in hell?
"Lagom you are a smooth tongued devil, and an opportunistic monster" - OOWW Game Club
- Lagom Lite
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[WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Journey 3
Journey 3 – The Bridge of Khazad-Dum
Easily cathing up with the goblins, the Company ran on and slew them. bb2112 looked up, thankful, at his fellows, and they continued on.
Before long theohall spoke. ”I think,” he said, ”that there is a light ahead. But it is not daylight. It is red. What can it be?”
Soon the light became unmistakable. It was flickering and glowing on the walls away down the passage before them. The air became very hot.
”There is some new devilry here,” Qantaga said, ”devised for our welcome, no doubt.”
”Look ahead!” called rshetts2. ”The Bridge is near. It is dangerous and narrow.”
Before them was a black chasm. At the end of the hall the floor vanished and fell to an unknown depth. The outer door could only be reached by a slender bridge of stone, without kerb or rail, that spanned the chasm with one curving spring of fifty feet. They could only pass across in in single file.
Something was coming up behind them. What it was could not be seen: it was like a great shadow, in the middle of which was a dark form, of man-shape maybe, yet greater; and a power and terror seemed to be in it and to go before it.
It came to the edge of the fire and the light faded as if a cloud had bent over it. Then with a rush it leaped across the fissure. The flames roared up to greet it, and wreathed about it; and a black smoke swirled in the air. Its streaming mane kindled, and blazed behind it. In its right hand was a blade like a stabbing tongue of fire; in its left it held a whip of many thongs.
”Ai! Ai!” wailed Remus West. ”A Balrog! A Balrog is come!”
RMC stared with wide eyes. ”Durin’s Bane!” he cried.
”A Balrog,” muttered tru1cy. ”What an evil fortune! And I am already weary.”
The dark figure streaming with fire raced towards them.
”Over the bridge!” cried triggercut. ”Fly!”
The Balrog reached the bridge. Mr Bubbles stood in the middle of the span. His enemy halted again, facing him, and the shadow about it reached out like two vast wings. It raised the whip, and the thongs whined and cracked. Fire came from its nostrils. But Mr Bubbles stood firm.
”You cannot pass,” he said. ”Go back to the Shadow! You cannot pass.”
With a bound the Balrog leaped full upon the bridge. Its whip whirled and hissed. The bridge cracked. Right at the Balrog’s feet it broke, and the stone upon which it stood crashed into the gulf.
bb2112 has been freed!
Players:
1. Grundbegriff
2. redrun
3. theohall
4. Qantaga
5. bb2112
6. rhsetts2
7. Remus West
8. RMC
9. tru1cy
10. triggercut
11. Mr Bubbles
12. coopasonic
13. pr0ner
14. Newcastle
Gollum, will you guide a player?
Gollum, will you steal from a player?
Boromir, will you scan a player?
Gandalf, will you scan a player?
Witch-King, will you scan a player?
Aragorn, will you protect a player?
Servants of the Eye, will you hunt a player?
Easily cathing up with the goblins, the Company ran on and slew them. bb2112 looked up, thankful, at his fellows, and they continued on.
Before long theohall spoke. ”I think,” he said, ”that there is a light ahead. But it is not daylight. It is red. What can it be?”
Soon the light became unmistakable. It was flickering and glowing on the walls away down the passage before them. The air became very hot.
”There is some new devilry here,” Qantaga said, ”devised for our welcome, no doubt.”
”Look ahead!” called rshetts2. ”The Bridge is near. It is dangerous and narrow.”
Before them was a black chasm. At the end of the hall the floor vanished and fell to an unknown depth. The outer door could only be reached by a slender bridge of stone, without kerb or rail, that spanned the chasm with one curving spring of fifty feet. They could only pass across in in single file.
Something was coming up behind them. What it was could not be seen: it was like a great shadow, in the middle of which was a dark form, of man-shape maybe, yet greater; and a power and terror seemed to be in it and to go before it.
It came to the edge of the fire and the light faded as if a cloud had bent over it. Then with a rush it leaped across the fissure. The flames roared up to greet it, and wreathed about it; and a black smoke swirled in the air. Its streaming mane kindled, and blazed behind it. In its right hand was a blade like a stabbing tongue of fire; in its left it held a whip of many thongs.
”Ai! Ai!” wailed Remus West. ”A Balrog! A Balrog is come!”
RMC stared with wide eyes. ”Durin’s Bane!” he cried.
”A Balrog,” muttered tru1cy. ”What an evil fortune! And I am already weary.”
The dark figure streaming with fire raced towards them.
”Over the bridge!” cried triggercut. ”Fly!”
The Balrog reached the bridge. Mr Bubbles stood in the middle of the span. His enemy halted again, facing him, and the shadow about it reached out like two vast wings. It raised the whip, and the thongs whined and cracked. Fire came from its nostrils. But Mr Bubbles stood firm.
”You cannot pass,” he said. ”Go back to the Shadow! You cannot pass.”
With a bound the Balrog leaped full upon the bridge. Its whip whirled and hissed. The bridge cracked. Right at the Balrog’s feet it broke, and the stone upon which it stood crashed into the gulf.
bb2112 has been freed!
Players:
1. Grundbegriff
2. redrun
3. theohall
4. Qantaga
5. bb2112
6. rhsetts2
7. Remus West
8. RMC
9. tru1cy
10. triggercut
11. Mr Bubbles
12. coopasonic
13. pr0ner
14. Newcastle
Gollum, will you guide a player?
Gollum, will you steal from a player?
Boromir, will you scan a player?
Gandalf, will you scan a player?
Witch-King, will you scan a player?
Aragorn, will you protect a player?
Servants of the Eye, will you hunt a player?
But you've seen who's in heaven
Is there anyone in hell?
"Lagom you are a smooth tongued devil, and an opportunistic monster" - OOWW Game Club
Is there anyone in hell?
"Lagom you are a smooth tongued devil, and an opportunistic monster" - OOWW Game Club
- Grundbegriff
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
Interesting. So the optimal strategy for Evil is to WK-Scan one player and to capture/kill another. If the capture/kill turns out to be a capture, it automatically scans for Ring-presence.Lagom Lite wrote:No. Results of the WK scan and Uruk hunt are presented simultaneously.triggercut wrote:Lagom: does the Witch King get his scan result before the Servants pick their target for kill/capture?
This means that Evil now has:
--identified two members of the set {Gollum, Frodo, Sam, Merry, Pippin}
--scanned two players other than tru1cy and bb2112
With respect to ringbearing, Evil is now fishing in a group of seven targets and taking them out two-at-a-time.
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
I was a little more circumspect than Grundbegriff, but yes, what he said:
triggercut wrote:Ok, I'm fighting a nasty cold and am Day-Quilled to the gills. This struck me as great insight, but it may also be very clear to everyone already and I'm late to the party. It may also be utter gobbledygook.
Let's assume Team Shadow plays this correctly during the Journey part of the turn. Let's also assume that Frodo holds onto the ring as a constant (which we'll see becomes a *really* bad idea going forward)
1. Night 1, they had about an 18% chance or so of finding the Ring. Night 2, they had a 22% chance of finding the ring. Night 3 that chance goes up to about 29%, if Frodo's held the ring. If he continues to hold it, his odds of keeping it collapse. Night 4 there's a 40% chance they get it. Night 5 they've got a 67% chance of finding it. If Frodo continues to hold the ring, on Night 6 he'll be captured and lose it.
2. Every Hobbit they capture helps the Fellowship *immensely*, and hurts the Shadow. Yes, Gollum may be in that Hobbit mix, but that's an endgame problem I think. (Known Hobbit rollcall ftw!) Any Fellowship ringbearer needs to know who they can hand off to before they're captured or corrupted.
3. Therefore, "Hunting Some Orc" is ALWAYS the best play if it is available and the Fellowship controls the ring.
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Journey 3
Ok so the prevailing theory is that evil is scanning one person and then hunting another each night to maximize their information gathering, correct? Seems to make sense. It then appears that they have managed to beat the odds as it were and capture a hobbit/gollum the first two nights. Good for us as we maintain our ranks but they are definitely whittling down who the non hobbits are and thus really narrowing down who our specials are. They know the three evils, they know that 2 more people are not possible fellowship specials. That leaves them a much smaller pool to search for our specials in. So outing 2 hobbits or gollum is not all good for us. Maybe we will get lucky again and they will find Boromir.
Regarding the rule set, why does Gollum hold the Resurrection ability and why would he use it? Is there a reason he would assist the fellowship in that way? Im asking because I dont see the logic in giving Gollum that ability. It seems like a throw away. It cant be a bargaining chip can it? Because Gollum would have to expose himself to use it as such, opening himself to being imprisoned and effectively removed from the game. I could see it as being a safety in numbers thing for Gollum but as the Servants can effectively whittle those numbers down 2 per night, that safety is short lived. Anyway, Im just curious as to the rationale because it seems kinda like giving a eunuch a box of trojans.
Regarding the rule set, why does Gollum hold the Resurrection ability and why would he use it? Is there a reason he would assist the fellowship in that way? Im asking because I dont see the logic in giving Gollum that ability. It seems like a throw away. It cant be a bargaining chip can it? Because Gollum would have to expose himself to use it as such, opening himself to being imprisoned and effectively removed from the game. I could see it as being a safety in numbers thing for Gollum but as the Servants can effectively whittle those numbers down 2 per night, that safety is short lived. Anyway, Im just curious as to the rationale because it seems kinda like giving a eunuch a box of trojans.
Well do you ever get the feeling that the story's too damn real and in the present tense?
Or that everybody's on the stage and it seems like you're the only person sitting in the audience?
Or that everybody's on the stage and it seems like you're the only person sitting in the audience?
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Journey 3
Hey, thanks for coming for me. I probably got nabbed because I haven't been my old talkative self. Sorry, got a lot of IRL things going on right now. Kind of worked out for the best though because now you all know I am either a hobbit or gollum. Not that anyone should take this statement at face value, but I am a hobbit. So, moving on.
Based on the math, the evil guys have figured out 7 out of 14 people are not the ring bearer?
3 Evils
2 WK scans
2 Hobbits/Gollum Captured
So tonight we are at 50% chance the Evils either scan for the ring or capture the ring bearer.
Let's assume we are lucky and they fail.
Tomorrw we are at:
3 Evils
3 WK scans
2/3 Hobbits/Gollum Captured
1/0 Free Person Killed
for a Total of 9 out of 14 known to evil.
Do I have my math correct? Unfortunately, if this is correct, Frodo is going to have to pass the ring fairly soon.
With only 3 safe people to pass the ring to, and 4 nights/Journeys left (after tonight).
Wow, this is going to get ugly complicated.
If the ring is Captured, the good guys are searching through 12 out of 14 to get it back?
Question: if team evil gets the ring, how can the fellowship retreive it?
Based on the math, the evil guys have figured out 7 out of 14 people are not the ring bearer?
3 Evils
2 WK scans
2 Hobbits/Gollum Captured
So tonight we are at 50% chance the Evils either scan for the ring or capture the ring bearer.
Let's assume we are lucky and they fail.
Tomorrw we are at:
3 Evils
3 WK scans
2/3 Hobbits/Gollum Captured
1/0 Free Person Killed
for a Total of 9 out of 14 known to evil.
Do I have my math correct? Unfortunately, if this is correct, Frodo is going to have to pass the ring fairly soon.
With only 3 safe people to pass the ring to, and 4 nights/Journeys left (after tonight).
Wow, this is going to get ugly complicated.
If the ring is Captured, the good guys are searching through 12 out of 14 to get it back?
Question: if team evil gets the ring, how can the fellowship retreive it?
That's no reason to cry. One cries because one is sad. For example, I cry because others are stupid, and that makes me sad.
Why would I stab an Oracle? Wait, what am I saying? Why wouldn't I stab an Oracle? - Belkar Bitterleaf
BCY4920 - You can suck it Johnny Angel.
Why would I stab an Oracle? Wait, what am I saying? Why wouldn't I stab an Oracle? - Belkar Bitterleaf
BCY4920 - You can suck it Johnny Angel.
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Journey 3
A pretty big question. I'll have to ask you to narrow it down for me since there are several ways for team evil to get the ring.bb2112 wrote:Question: if team evil gets the ring, how can the fellowship retreive it?
But you've seen who's in heaven
Is there anyone in hell?
"Lagom you are a smooth tongued devil, and an opportunistic monster" - OOWW Game Club
Is there anyone in hell?
"Lagom you are a smooth tongued devil, and an opportunistic monster" - OOWW Game Club
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Journey 3
My understanding is that if they get the Ring what they have actually done is get the Ring bearer. So we get it back by freeing him - Hunting Orc.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Journey 3
If the ring is passed to (free-people/evil/gollum/(the same hobbit twice)) we'd have to find and kill the person with the ring. At that point, they get to hand it off to whomever they choose and they will know who else is on team evil (except Boromir, unless he has the ring). So, as soon as evil holds the ring (not captured, not imprisioned) we've got a major problem.bb2112 wrote: If the ring is Captured, the good guys are searching through 12 out of 14 to get it back?
Question: if team evil gets the ring, how can the fellowship retreive it?
If the ringbearer (gollum/hobbit) is captured, we have to hunt orc. Note - if any hobbit other than Frodo is captured with the ring, we've got to free them that day, or the following morning the hobbit will be corrupted and join team evil.
If the ringbearer is imprisioned, we have to kill Saruman.
Sufficient I am to the day.
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Journey 3
That doesn't work if Saruman has imprisoned him. In that case, we have to kill Saruman.Remus West wrote:My understanding is that if they get the Ring what they have actually done is get the Ring bearer. So we get it back by freeing him - Hunting Orc.
Hodor.
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Journey 3
Yeah, redrun did a better job of laying it out.pr0ner wrote:That doesn't work if Saruman has imprisoned him. In that case, we have to kill Saruman.Remus West wrote:My understanding is that if they get the Ring what they have actually done is get the Ring bearer. So we get it back by freeing him - Hunting Orc.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
What's interesting? It doesn't really matter how scan/capture works - as long as the scan did not find the ringbearer, they capture a second player. Evil was obviously going to go for the double scan (via capture) each night, so the math is the same.Grundbegriff wrote:Interesting. So the optimal strategy for Evil is to WK-Scan one player and to capture/kill another. If the capture/kill turns out to be a capture, it automatically scans for Ring-presence.Lagom Lite wrote:No. Results of the WK scan and Uruk hunt are presented simultaneously.triggercut wrote:Lagom: does the Witch King get his scan result before the Servants pick their target for kill/capture?
This means that Evil now has:
--identified two members of the set {Gollum, Frodo, Sam, Merry, Pippin}
--scanned two players other than tru1cy and bb2112
With respect to ringbearing, Evil is now fishing in a group of seven targets and taking them out two-at-a-time.
What was interesting, is that they might have found the ringbearer last night, but been unable to capture.
Also, Boromir, you left out your own power to scan.
Sufficient I am to the day.
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Journey 3
Thanks Redrun. Yes, that did answer my question.
Wow, kudos to you LL. This is a very interesting puzzle. As I have said multiple times before, I kind of treat these modified WW games as a strategy game, and this is very complex. I wish CR were here, he is good at these types of conundrums as well.
I will need to think some more...
Wow, kudos to you LL. This is a very interesting puzzle. As I have said multiple times before, I kind of treat these modified WW games as a strategy game, and this is very complex. I wish CR were here, he is good at these types of conundrums as well.
I will need to think some more...
That's no reason to cry. One cries because one is sad. For example, I cry because others are stupid, and that makes me sad.
Why would I stab an Oracle? Wait, what am I saying? Why wouldn't I stab an Oracle? - Belkar Bitterleaf
BCY4920 - You can suck it Johnny Angel.
Why would I stab an Oracle? Wait, what am I saying? Why wouldn't I stab an Oracle? - Belkar Bitterleaf
BCY4920 - You can suck it Johnny Angel.
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Journey 3
Yeah, he posted while I was posting mine. He did do better than me.Remus West wrote:Yeah, redrun did a better job of laying it out.pr0ner wrote:That doesn't work if Saruman has imprisoned him. In that case, we have to kill Saruman.Remus West wrote:My understanding is that if they get the Ring what they have actually done is get the Ring bearer. So we get it back by freeing him - Hunting Orc.
Hodor.
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
What's interesting is that orders are resolved simultaneously.redrun wrote:What's interesting? It doesn't really matter how scan/capture works....Grundbegriff wrote:Interesting. So the optimal strategy....Lagom Lite wrote:No. Results of the WK scan and Uruk hunt are presented simultaneously.triggercut wrote:Lagom: does the Witch King get his scan result before the Servants pick their target for kill/capture?
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
Yep, it didn't seem that way by looking at the rules.Grundbegriff wrote:What's interesting is that orders are resolved simultaneously.redrun wrote:What's interesting? It doesn't really matter how scan/capture works....Grundbegriff wrote:Interesting. So the optimal strategy....Lagom Lite wrote:No. Results of the WK scan and Uruk hunt are presented simultaneously.triggercut wrote:Lagom: does the Witch King get his scan result before the Servants pick their target for kill/capture?
"It's my manner, sir. It looks insubordinate, but it isn't, really."
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Chapter 2
It did to me. Running them in an order but having them submitted before running any of them seems to be the default for these games. That was why it perked my interest that you and Grund seemed to know it was different than that. I can't remember the last time we played one of these and either side got the benefit of an early scan to make decisions with.triggercut wrote:Yep, it didn't seem that way by looking at the rules.Grundbegriff wrote:What's interesting is that orders are resolved simultaneously.redrun wrote:What's interesting? It doesn't really matter how scan/capture works....Grundbegriff wrote:Interesting. So the optimal strategy....Lagom Lite wrote:No. Results of the WK scan and Uruk hunt are presented simultaneously.triggercut wrote:Lagom: does the Witch King get his scan result before the Servants pick their target for kill/capture?
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Journey 3
With a terrible cry the Balrog fell forward, and its shadow plunged down and vanished. But even as it fell it swung its whip, and the thongs lashed and curled about Mr Bubbles' knees, dragging him to the brink. He staggered and fell, grasped vainly at the stone, and slid into the abyss.
"Fly, you fools!" he cried, and was gone. The fires went out, and blank darkness fell.
Dropped by the monster, the Company found a Palantir on the stone floor of the remains of the bridge. Peering into it, the visage of Mr Bubbles being dragged to Orthanc before a laughing White Wizard inspires great terror in you all.
Mr Bubbles has been Imprisoned!
"Fly, you fools!" he cried, and was gone. The fires went out, and blank darkness fell.
Dropped by the monster, the Company found a Palantir on the stone floor of the remains of the bridge. Peering into it, the visage of Mr Bubbles being dragged to Orthanc before a laughing White Wizard inspires great terror in you all.
Mr Bubbles has been Imprisoned!
But you've seen who's in heaven
Is there anyone in hell?
"Lagom you are a smooth tongued devil, and an opportunistic monster" - OOWW Game Club
Is there anyone in hell?
"Lagom you are a smooth tongued devil, and an opportunistic monster" - OOWW Game Club
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Journey 3
LL just to be certain does this mean that Enemy controls the ring?
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Journey 3
Ring ownership is only announced at the start of Chapters.tru1cy wrote:LL just to be certain does this mean that Enemy controls the ring?
But you've seen who's in heaven
Is there anyone in hell?
"Lagom you are a smooth tongued devil, and an opportunistic monster" - OOWW Game Club
Is there anyone in hell?
"Lagom you are a smooth tongued devil, and an opportunistic monster" - OOWW Game Club
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Re: [WW] Fellowship of the Ring II - Journey 3
Ok. So to underscore the obvious-- the fact that Saruman used his one-time power on Bubbles must mean that the WK scanned Bubbles and found him to be holding the One Ring.Lagom Lite wrote:Mr Bubbles has been Imprisoned!
Killing Saruman is now Priority #1.