WW Viking Ship - GAME OVER - English Victory

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:00 pm

Remus West wrote:Basically if we do not shoot and miss then we have to pray the protector gets a save or we are cooked. I don't like those odds since it is usually pretty easy to guess who won't be protected (as opposed to trying to guess will player X be protected).

That's pretty compelling evidence that the shot must be taken today.

At the moment, the shooter has a 44% chance of hitting an English (and, hopefully, a decent read on game data to increase those odds).

If he chooses correctly, excellent.

Even if he misses and shoots a Viking, he reduces our pool of possible English from 4/10 (currently) to 4/8. Since a missed lynch means a probable English victory and a smaller pool of candidates is highly advantageous, I can't think of any reason the shot should be saved.

I am not the Weaponsmith.

With theo and his funeral pyres gone, we must hope that El Guapo was not the Weaponsmith.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:04 pm

I'm just home from work and about to go for supper.

Horrible night off the fjords. :/

I favor taking the shot, and I'm not the Weaponsmith.

I'll return to offer some thoughts after I eat.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:13 pm

I favor taking the shot as well... The math is convincing.

Where does everyone stand on who the weaponsmith should smite?

I think I am voting for Chaosraven right now...He is much to quiet, for him, this game..

tru1cy · Post by **tru1cy** » Tue Nov 15, 2011 11:03 pm

I'm okay with the shot being taken and I am not the weaponmaster

Arcanis · Post by **Arcanis** » Wed Nov 16, 2011 10:33 am

I guess I should articulate that I'm not the weaponmaster as others have already. I don't want him getting an itchy sword hand thinking I'm trying to steal his thunder.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Wed Nov 16, 2011 11:27 am

Alright...Did a quick post count on Chaos and he is at 14. That is about 1 1/2 posts per page.

I really think that is a really flying under the radar Chaos... So who else should we be looking at.

Unless I hear otherwise, I think the weapon smith should off the raven... Nevermore...

1. Purge - Raven pointed at him as a possible target (if Theo was lynched) (draw away possible implication of Raven..Not sure)
3. Remus West - Seems like a good guy
4. Lagom Lite - Seems like a good guy
5. Qantaga - Seems like a good guy
6. Chaosraven - Too quiet for my tastes
7. Grundbegriff - Not sure on him...
8. Truicy - <shrug> Usually quiet until later...
10. RMC - I'm me, so I trust me.
11. Coopasonic - Theo wanted him lynched, if I remember correctly
12. Arcanis - A train almost formed then was disrupted..But I think it was disrupted by 1st time playing...

So I guess my list is:
Chaosraven
purge
Coopasonic
Arcanis

The only one I have a feeling about is Chaos, but we should take the shot today, assuming that the weapon smith is out there. Or Lynch Chaosraven if he is not.

coopasonic · Post by **coopasonic** » Wed Nov 16, 2011 11:32 am

I am not the shooter.

Arcanis · Post by **Arcanis** » Wed Nov 16, 2011 1:22 pm

Well there are only 4 people left who haven't denied being the shooter out right and 2 of them haven't posted since it was brought up.

I'm still thinking Tru1cy is evil, but I don't have enough to confidence say "shoot him he is English".

tru1cy · Post by **tru1cy** » Wed Nov 16, 2011 1:43 pm

Arcanis wrote:Well there are only 4 people left who haven't denied being the shooter out right and 2 of them haven't posted since it was brought up.

I'm still thinking Tru1cy is evil, but I don't have enough to confidence say "shoot him he is English".

Wrong but I understand your distrust.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Wed Nov 16, 2011 4:36 pm

Those of you checking in as "not shooter" but not saying anything else are not helping. Essentially we need to pick two targets today. We need input from everyone we can get to guide not only the shot (first target) but the subsequent lynch. I outlined my thinking. If you have nothing else at least share your most likely suspects and why they are such so that we have something to guide our voting. If you are holding things back for fear the English use it against us keep in mind that if we screw this up they won't have to use anything against us as they will already have won. Time to put your cards on the table fellas.

purge · Post by **purge** » Wed Nov 16, 2011 4:45 pm

Been really busy at work. I'll chime in later tonight.

FTR: I am also not the weaponsmith or weaponmaster or weaponmaiden.

I have, however, taken maidenheads.

Arcanis · Post by **Arcanis** » Wed Nov 16, 2011 5:00 pm

Tru1cy is what my gut is telling me. There is some circumstantial evidence that I listed on day 1 and that is about it.

Lagom has been coming after me really hard the whole game and that doesn't seem like the typical prod and move on approach I would expect of someone fishing for info.

Coop seems to have a lot of posts that don't say much. Though I'm not one to throw stones on that since I just try and consolidate known data.

Grif seems to not say much at all this game, not sure how common that is for him as most games i've seen he is dead early.

Chaos seems rather quite for his style, though others bringing that up are the main reason I remember he is in game.

Qan I forget is in game until he posts a lot of the time.

RMC I have virtually no read on. He just has a statement or two that stand out as hints in my mind, but could easily be me reading too much into things.

Remus and Purge I got no read on him and no real statements that stand out in my mind.

That is my thoughts right now on people in the game.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Wed Nov 16, 2011 5:31 pm

purge wrote:Been really busy at work. I'll chime in later tonight.

FTR: I am also not the weaponsmith or weaponmaster or weaponmaiden.

I have, however, taken maidenheads.

Scoop's backside doesn't count. You need to have a real woman not a dude with a mop on top of his head.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Thu Nov 17, 2011 8:50 am

purge wrote:Been really busy at work. I'll chime in later tonight.

FTR: I am also not the weaponsmith or weaponmaster or weaponmaiden.

I have, however, taken maidenheads.

Paging purge and his chime in...

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Thu Nov 17, 2011 10:31 am

RMC wrote:
purge wrote:Been really busy at work. I'll chime in later tonight.

FTR: I am also not the weaponsmith or weaponmaster or weaponmaiden.

I have, however, taken maidenheads.
Paging just about everyone and their chime ins...

ftfy

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Thu Nov 17, 2011 11:40 am

Remus West wrote:
RMC wrote:
purge wrote:Been really busy at work. I'll chime in later tonight.

FTR: I am also not the weaponsmith or weaponmaster or weaponmaiden.

I have, however, taken maidenheads.
Paging just about everyone and their chime ins...
ftfy

True...But at least he said he was going to chime in... <sigh>

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Thu Nov 17, 2011 1:02 pm

Alright! I am the 1%....Err.. I mean I am the weaponsmith and someone is gonna die soon

. So speak up, or I'll go after whomever I feel like.

Umm.. Now back to chatting, or lack thereof.

Arcanis · Post by **Arcanis** » Thu Nov 17, 2011 1:15 pm

RMC wrote:Alright! I am the 1%....Err.. I mean I am the weaponsmith and someone is gonna die soon . So speak up, or I'll go after whomever I feel like.

Umm.. Now back to chatting, or lack thereof.

Well at least I was right at guessing you were 'da man. I've already laid out my thoughts on who the target should be. Its your choice who gets the ax, literally, but I would like some warning if you choose me.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Thu Nov 17, 2011 1:19 pm

Arcanis wrote:
RMC wrote:Alright! I am the 1%....Err.. I mean I am the weaponsmith and someone is gonna die soon . So speak up, or I'll go after whomever I feel like.

Umm.. Now back to chatting, or lack thereof.
Well at least I was right at guessing you were 'da man. I've already laid out my thoughts on who the target should be. Its your choice who gets the ax, literally, but I would like some warning if you choose me.

Well I was kinda showing my hand without showing my hand so to speak.

Really want to hear from Chaos and purge and everyone else...

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Thu Nov 17, 2011 1:21 pm

I find myself good with your entire list. I should say though that I'm mostly good with Chaosraven because he was busy on day 1 then since then....nothing. Hard to read so I have no feeling there but I also find it hard not to support killing him off.

The other three are high on my list.

Arcanis' last post seems very weird to me and I would probably target him first today as he if far and away my number 1 suspect.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Thu Nov 17, 2011 5:38 pm

Meh, I was out and busy with stuff. I would prefer to not be shot. Or lynched. But neither of those things are up to me.

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 9:20 am

RMC wrote:Alright! I am the 1%....Err.. I mean I am the weaponsmith and someone is gonna die soon . So speak up, or I'll go after whomever I feel like.

Excellent. I'm glad you're going to take a shot RMC.

I actually think that you going after whomever you feel like is our best bet. There are 4 voices here who will try to mislead you and 5 voices here who know as much (or as little) as you do (although, hopefully, one of those 5 know a little more).

I do see the value of Remus' suggested threat list for all of us to register our suspicions before the shot, so that we have more data when it comes to making our lynch decision after the shot.

As for my suspicions, I still have Lagom as my top suspect, followed closely by "helpful" Remus.

Lagom Lite · Post by **Lagom Lite** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 1:15 pm

Well you should shoot someone you suspect, since you are the only one you can trust. I'm out of Town and busy this weekend, so I don't really have anything to say. This post is mostly to test tapatalk on my new phone.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sat Nov 19, 2011 9:10 am

Coop, lagom, tru1cy, and of course REMUS WEST.

tru1cy · Post by **tru1cy** » Sat Nov 19, 2011 7:48 pm

You'll waste your shot if you decide to send.it my way.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Sun Nov 20, 2011 3:15 am

This is redefining "asleep at the trigger".

RMC, you have effectively pushed pause on this game until you have taken the shot and thus given us more information to work with.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Sun Nov 20, 2011 9:11 am

Remus West wrote:This is redefining "asleep at the trigger".

RMC, you have effectively pushed pause on this game until you have taken the shot and thus given us more information to work with.

Very true.. But I am waiting to hear from everyone, very few have offered anything... I'll spend some time to see if I see anything today, and then push the button Monday afternoon. That gives everyone time to at least say something...

tru1cy · Post by **tru1cy** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 8:06 am

Is this game going into hiatus over thanksgiving. Btw, this is the reason why I like deadlines..

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 9:18 am

Alright. Here is who I am going to shoot, unless he gives me a good reason not to. I am going to give him some time to speak prior to pulling the trigger.

Purge will be shot, unless he convinces me not to. I have not sent in the PM to have this done, so I can be swayed to shoot someone else.

But his posts seem to me to be someone who sweeps in says a little and then leaves to let everyone else look over things.

<shrug> I still think my list posted above is a good list, but I am not sold on Chaosraven, nor any of the others. And since Purge had said he would talk and then has not..Just jumps out at me.

So comment to your heart desires...

purge · Post by **purge** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 9:33 am

Not crazy about the meta, but It's cuz I came down with a cold, fool. Had you checked my last logon time, it would have shown that I've not been here at all (in either game). Hell, I wasn't even at work on Thurs/Fri either.

You write up suspicions on everyone and you've got no indication that I'm english, and I become primary suspect because I said I'd speak and since then never logged in? Nice.

I'm no english dog. Feel free to go through my history - I'm the one that called for you to attack. I also objected to Scoop because I didn't believe he was english and I was |--| this close to letting the random hit because it'd be better to bag a wolf at a 30+% chance (IIRC- the percentages at the time were better than now).

Kill me, and move us to n-1 to losing to the english before we even make it to the abbey.

Also, I think the english are stupid (hence my confusion and questions about the explosion). They should have picked another target to bomb and killed Scoop - the protection would have been invalidated anyways. That way, they'd get us by either shooting or hanging and not worrying about protection or night cycle. We'd be one viking less (potentially a special, such as yourself) and put us up to kill ourselves.

Do what you must.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 10:58 am

Your excuse is meta. Noting that you did not post is simply reading the thread.

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 11:50 am

If the intent of the shot is to hit an Englishman, specifically the 'splodie one, perhaps a little more discussion before you nuke purge would be in order.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 11:59 am

Chaosraven wrote:If the intent of the shot is to hit an Englishman, specifically the 'splodie one, perhaps a little more discussion before you nuke purge would be in order.

Well since I have been asking for that for a few days, I would welcome it. But I am getting prodded to just do it and move on..

Hell the most activity I have generated has been when I said I was going to shoot Purge, and then miracles of miracles, he shows up with in an hour. That actually makes me more inclined to see him as team evil, not less.

But I would like to hear what everyone has to say, as I think if we/I get an Englishmen, then it gives us a ton of options. If I miss, then the game is almost over with a loss for the good guys..

Arcanis · Post by **Arcanis** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 12:13 pm

I think I have said all that I can to help you decide on who you should pick RMC. I don't really have anything more useful to add.

I do have a question though. Is anyone else as confused as I am trying to read Purge's paragraph about the English being stupid? It is all over the place and I just can't follow the logic of it, or the lack there of. I think he may have been hitting the NyQuil a bit hard before posting that or I'm totally misunderstanding what he is saying.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 1:03 pm

Newcastle, how does the timing of the shot impact the deadline? Do we get time after the shot to discuss the results or is the deadline set and we either beat it or don't?

This is my concern and why I mentioned you paused the game RMC. One of the benefits of taking the shot is the information gained with either a hit or miss. If we wait until we are close to a hard deadline it will not be easy to make good use of it. Also one reason I would like you to consider using a vote to pick your target is if you target someone only you suspect it doesn't tell us anything regarding the remaining players. If you target someone we vote for then we can use it like a second lynch and have the vote to examine as well as the arguments for/against shooting player X based off the knowledge of which side player X was.

You'd probably need to set a deadline for the shot vote though to get people to actually say anything.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 1:08 pm

Remus West wrote:Newcastle, how does the timing of the shot impact the deadline? Do we get time after the shot to discuss the results or is the deadline set and we either beat it or don't?

This is my concern and why I mentioned you paused the game RMC. One of the benefits of taking the shot is the information gained with either a hit or miss. If we wait until we are close to a hard deadline it will not be easy to make good use of it. Also one reason I would like you to consider using a vote to pick your target is if you target someone only you suspect it doesn't tell us anything regarding the remaining players. If you target someone we vote for then we can use it like a second lynch and have the vote to examine as well as the arguments for/against shooting player X based off the knowledge of which side player X was.

You'd probably need to set a deadline for the shot vote though to get people to actually say anything.

I am all for a player vote for the shot. If I had a hunch or feeling about someone, then I would just shoot. But I would prefer the vote method. I actually tried this morning to poke some people by declaring who I was going to shoot, and it worked kinda.

So why don't we say that we will take votes for who to shoot, and have Wed @ Midnight(EST) (Cuz that's where I live), be the deadline?

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 1:33 pm

Remus West wrote:Newcastle, how does the timing of the shot impact the deadline? Do we get time after the shot to discuss the results or is the deadline set and we either beat it or don't?

As of right now I havent invoked the "deadline" so you are safe to discuss any events that may transpire. Once i invoked the "deadline" you will have 72 hours to discuss and connive.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 1:34 pm

As an aside - Are you guys just bored w/ the game? Should i simply call it off? There is pretty much zero activity and it has me worried that people arent interested in playing the game.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 1:35 pm

tru1cy wrote:Is this game going into hiatus over thanksgiving. Btw, this is the reason why I like deadlines..

I wont invoke a deadline until the earliest of next week, due to the holidays coming up.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 1:38 pm

Newcastle wrote:As an aside - Are you guys just bored w/ the game? Should i simply call it off? There is pretty much zero activity and it has me worried that people arent interested in playing the game.

I'm interested. I'm just frustrated by the lack of participation in this and the league game right now. I would not like it called off.