OOWWL S01 Game 5 Villagers Win! Game Over!

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Sat Dec 17, 2011 11:58 am

seriously you guys have blinders on, its like no one is listening to what i am saying. you guys deserve to lose.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Sat Dec 17, 2011 12:09 pm

also sift through grund's posts for any hints at if he might be the seer.

look at the pool of remus, BB, and rev.

i think Q & purge are innocent.

Bb could be lying in the weeds and platying a quiet wolf

remus -i've never seen him so closeminded

rev- he's been feeling more innocent to me over the day as i've focused on remus.

again i also could be blinded by my back and forths w/ remus today.

but do go through grund's posts and maybe even lassr. One of them was the seer, i am betting grund.

Good luck.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sat Dec 17, 2011 1:50 pm

Vote Count: Wednesday - Day Three

1. Remus West - Newcastle
2. Newcastle - Remus West, Newcastle
4. purge - bb2112, RevHempus71
5. RevHempus71 - Qantaga, Newcastle, purge, Newcastle
7. Qantaga - RevHempus71
9. bb2112 - purge, Newcastle,RevHempus71, Newcastle

Newcastle (4): Remus West, RevHempus71, bb2112, Newcastle
RevHempus71 (2): purge, Qantaga

Voting is Closed!

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sat Dec 17, 2011 1:58 pm

The villagers debated on the merits of sleeping another night and hoping no one died or actually attempting to lynch a wolf. RevHempus71 was headed for the gallows, but realized he had enough in his pocket for another smoke. While he rolled his papers, Newcastle walked to the gallows, put the noose around his neck, said "No one listens to me," and promptly hung himself.

Newcastle was a Villager

IT IS NIGHT.

Wolves, who will you eat?
Seer, who will you scan?

Orders due by Tuesday at 10 PM ET.

purge · Post by **purge** » Sat Dec 17, 2011 3:29 pm

Good thing I was right.

Leave Qan alone. Now we have Rev / Remus.

Good job.

My life or death tonight has no bearing on the truth. If I die, it may be that Rev doesn't want me on his tail, or if he's not that the wolf wants a Rev vote to win him the game.

This is why I don't think Remus is the wolf:

He could have let Rev go down easy, and then pointed at me as misleading the village. It would have been safe, easy, and pretty much a reasonable act. (much like me hiding in the low-on-the-radar that I had going).

Rev should die tomorrow. You all didn't believe me - now it's time you listen up.

purge · Post by **purge** » Sat Dec 17, 2011 3:59 pm

Another thought - look at peoples agendas on Day 3 (which is why I said interesting).

The wolf wouldn't likely disrupt a perfectly good train to kill someone specific. I would NOT have cast a vote against NC - the more that yesterday rolled along, the less he became my #2.

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Sat Dec 17, 2011 5:48 pm

Seriously?

Good grief.

I wish I was the wolf. We're handing him the game on a silver platter.

RevHempus71 · Post by **RevHempus71** » Sat Dec 17, 2011 5:49 pm

Goodnight folks.... Play a little Toyes... (look it up}

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Sat Dec 17, 2011 7:33 pm

Charlie Brown wrote:
Good grief.

It's ok Charlie Brown, we only have to be right once more.

And since I may not make it through the night, i will give my 2 cents here. We should skip the lynch tomorrow. We only have one chance left and need to make it count.

Lynch anyone who says otherwise. And for reference, Remus has used the skip a lynch as a strategy in past games, regardless of what he posted earlier.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Sat Dec 17, 2011 9:02 pm

bb2112 wrote:And for reference, Remus has used the skip a lynch as a strategy in past games, regardless of what he posted earlier.

Yeah, I'm gonna need a quote for that one. When have I suggested that we simply skip a lynch in any game?

Qantaga · Post by **Qantaga** » Sat Dec 17, 2011 9:41 pm

Remus West wrote:
bb2112 wrote:And for reference, Remus has used the skip a lynch as a strategy in past games, regardless of what he posted earlier.
Yeah, I'm gonna need a quote for that one. When have I suggested that we simply skip a lynch in any game?

How about this? It was stess' Fast Action game. The plan was proposed by LordMortis and you agreed:

Remus West wrote:
LordMortis wrote: It only just occurred to me that we are this strange sort of odd versus even loss giving the wolfs an extra advantage. That being the case, if raven is not wolf (and I think and hope he is) then I still thing the better to not lynch tomorrow and increase the village odds for success and force the wolf to leave himself in a smaller pool.
This is likely a good plan. If we missed on Chaosraven then tomorrow we will be choosing between 3 people - none of them trusted since Scoop is the likely night kill. Allowing the wolf another kill simply means the final choice is between two rather than 3.

You can find a rather elaborate series of Lynch/Saves that you coordinated and/or participated in on page 9 of that thread, with a pretty clear quote of your participation here:

Remus West wrote:
LordMortis wrote: save

Does he need another or does that prove a majority can't be had?
He needs another as either of us could change our vote.

Your participation on Page 9 can be found here]

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sat Dec 17, 2011 10:11 pm

The villagers gathered near the Square the next morning and once again realized someone was missing. A quick roll call revealed Qantaga was missing. bb2112 took charge and went to investigate. He discovered yet another headless body. The head appeared to have been chewed off and was nowhere to be found. Having accounted for everyone else, he reported to the remaining villagers the wolf appeared to be collecting heads and Qantaga's was now part of the collection.

It is Day!

Thursday - Day Four

1. Remus West
2. Newcastle - lynched
3. Lassr - Monday night snack
4. purge
5. RevHempus71
6. stessier - Wolf, lynched by village
7. Qantaga - Beheaded Wednesday night
8. Grundbegriff - Beheaded Tuesday night
9. bb2112

Majority is 3
Deadline is Wednesday at 10 pm ET

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Sat Dec 17, 2011 10:50 pm

Damn. I pretty much knew it was going to be Q or I.

Thanks for the quotes Q, that was the exact game I was thinking of too.

We can talk today, but I don't think we should lynch anyone. Thoughts?

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Sun Dec 18, 2011 1:04 am

I had completely forgotten that game. I was thinking about the JLA game when it was proposed that we lynch Superman as he would survive the lynch - essentially passing on the day. I argued vehemently against it even though I was Superman and would thus be proven by the move.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Sun Dec 18, 2011 1:04 am

bb2112 wrote:Damn. I pretty much knew it was going to be Q or I.

Why?

purge · Post by **purge** » Sun Dec 18, 2011 1:20 am

The next lynch we miss, we lose.

The only thing a skip would do is force the wolf to kill again, reducing our numbers from four to three.

[mod question] Are the wolves in this game allowed to skip a meal?

Rev, Remus, BB, or skip?

Cripes. I still think Rev. Holding off votes till you all speak up.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sun Dec 18, 2011 1:53 am

purge wrote:[mod question] Are the wolves in this game allowed to skip a meal?

No. The Wolves must choose a victim.

RevHempus71 · Post by **RevHempus71** » Sun Dec 18, 2011 3:23 am

I will hold my vote for further discussion. I still say intentionally posing a non vote seems wrong to me.

Purge you still disturb me a lot. I have never seen such onesidedness from you before. wondering why you still haven't acknowledged my comment about the use of pot statements. Find it suspicious that you tried to use "flavor text" against me.

I still think about grund calling Remus and i to join him in a vote. If he was the Seer, why call me and Remus out?

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Sun Dec 18, 2011 9:30 am

Remus West wrote:
bb2112 wrote:Damn. I pretty much knew it was going to be Q or I.
Why?

Do you really need to ask???

Purge was focused on Rev
Rev was voting Purge
Several people mentioned you as being suspicious, but no actual vote
Q and I didn't have any votes against us and were probably the most trusted based on people's lists

It seemed very reasonable to me that Q or I were going down last night, and probably the other tonight, but hey, I've been wrong before. I would have preferred it if the wolf would have taken down one of you three to reduce confusion.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Sun Dec 18, 2011 9:34 am

purge wrote:The next lynch we miss, we lose.

The only thing a skip would do is force the wolf to kill again, reducing our numbers from four to three.

[mod question] Are the wolves in this game allowed to skip a meal?

Rev, Remus, BB, or skip?

Cripes. I still think Rev. Holding off votes till you all speak up.

Uh, why wouldn't the wolf choose you for a meal?

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Sun Dec 18, 2011 2:06 pm

bb2112 wrote:
purge wrote:The next lynch we miss, we lose.

The only thing a skip would do is force the wolf to kill again, reducing our numbers from four to three.

[mod question] Are the wolves in this game allowed to skip a meal?

Rev, Remus, BB, or skip?

Cripes. I still think Rev. Holding off votes till you all speak up.
Uh, why wouldn't the wolf choose you for a meal?

I believe he is talking about his vote when naming us, not the wolf's meal. That was my interpretation anyway.

RevHempus71 · Post by **RevHempus71** » Sun Dec 18, 2011 2:53 pm

So what are peoples thoughts here.
I seriously believe our baddy is Purge...... I mean it. He was silent for the most part, until the talk of lynching silents then bam guns a blazzin. Did you get nervous Purge. Seems so contrived and like self preservation to me. Seems more selfserving than village friendly.

Thoughts????

purge · Post by **purge** » Sun Dec 18, 2011 7:30 pm

First of all:
Yeah, my comment above was based on the only actions *I* can take. Vote for one of you three, or vote to skip.

Rev- Nice. So 9 points, no response. The only thing you've come back with is whining about "Flavor" comments when you try to meta-excuse your "slip ups". At this point I see you as a wolf, and I can't un-see it.

It is possible Remus or BB is biding time and we're both villagers, but I don't see it. Unless you can come up with some explanation for those 9 points, I don't really have much more to say to, or about, you.

His text has separated him from us, he has YET to explain why he attacked Qan (twice, I'm guessing from last nights kill).

If we lynch today, we lose regardless (since there is no hunter to potentially carry the game with no night kill).
4 today
-1 lynch
-1 night kill
= 2 tomorrow = fail

If we skip (which I wouldn't suggest unless it'd already happened), then we get:

4 today,
-0 lynch
-1 night kill
= 3 tomorrow

Two villagers, one wolf. We force the wolf to cut our odds from 1 in 4 down to 1 in 3. Since this is a WW game and we're not ACTUALLY roleplaying this, I don't really care if I'm dinner tonight - I want this last wolf (Rev, by my humble estimation) to die.

That solves, for me any nagging doubt that Rev and his ubiquitous accusations are the not from a wolf, but simply from some frantic thrashing of a villager determined to help the wolves win.

If Rev dies tonight, I'm wrong and need to hunt through the logs and weigh BB and Remus West. I don't think he will.

purge · Post by **purge** » Sun Dec 18, 2011 7:34 pm

"If we skip (which I wouldn't suggest unless it'd already happened), then we get:"

This is in reference to the fact that the village has already missed a lynch deadline.

This is where I wish NC hadn't purged himself of the village - while he was my second pick, he was WAY BEHIND my suspicion of Rev.

BB, Remus, what do you think of the candidates and of the idea of forcing a skip? Your answers ARE being measured, just to be clear.

purge · Post by **purge** » Sun Dec 18, 2011 7:36 pm

Newcastle wrote:also sift through grund's posts for any hints at if he might be the seer.

look at the pool of remus, BB, and rev.

i think Q & purge are innocent.

Bb could be lying in the weeds and platying a quiet wolf

remus -i've never seen him so closeminded

rev- he's been feeling more innocent to me over the day as i've focused on remus.

again i also could be blinded by my back and forths w/ remus today.

but do go through grund's posts and maybe even lassr. One of them was the seer, i am betting grund.

Good luck.

If you both think we should skip or vote, please indicate it without doing it- I want to take NC's advice and revisit this with an open mind. I can't likely get back to this game until sometime late tomorrow, so by all means make comments, but DON'T VOTE.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Sun Dec 18, 2011 8:19 pm

As I said, skip today. I don't want to say any more about my suspects. I think I've been very open and clear.

RevHempus71 · Post by **RevHempus71** » Mon Dec 19, 2011 3:52 am

bb2112 wrote: Newcastle

5 voted for Stess, 3 did not. Newcastle, Rev, and Purge.

Of the 3, I don't have much experience with Purge, none with Rev, and Newcastle has seemed off to me all game.

This is where I saw bb2112 as a villager. Dove right in to the no vote pool. If nothing else bb if I do die today, remember where your suspicions were at this time. Reread and the badguy will reveal himself.

stessier wrote:
Lassr wrote:
Lassr wrote:
Remus West wrote: withdraw Remus West

Sigh. Nobody wants to try that game. I wondered if it could lead to both baddies again this time but guess not.
two games in a row...this time it could be an even more prefect disguise.

The self vote is going to get you killed again...
I can't decide whether you should die today or have a scan wasted on you.
Poke the innocents much?

Lassr

This is he point that Stess gave himself away. It read to me like Stess knew the innocents not Lassr. I knew then that Remus, Grund, and Lassr would end up on a Stess vote if for nothing more than putting Lassr's scan theory in question. When bb2112 voted Stess and didn't waiver..... he looked to be a hunter of wolves to me. It was because of how I was seeing bb at that time that I fired at Q (the only other total unknown to me). It may have very well been my sheer lack of history with him that helped me read something into his post that really wasn't there. However his (what i felt as) somewhat heated response gave me reason to pause. Seemed reactional not calculated... moved him slightly innocent.

purge wrote:PLEASE READ THIS POST THOROUGHLY
This is my contribution to our win. It's train-of-thought while reading, so bear with me.(should say wolf with me)

I have a giant list of train-of thought and summation of the first five pages. It is contained in this spoiler, and is ugly. Feel free to peruse it - it is a condensed form of the significant (and several seemingly insignificant) actions taken:

[*]
Lassr wrote:[re: Remus]I can't decide whether you should die today or have a scan wasted on you.
Seer slip, wolf plant? Stess hopped all over him on that comment and he justified it with "likely lynch means wasted scan" and then claimed villager. Died that night and the tender care of the wolves. (we know what happened to your packmate)

[*]
Qantaga wrote:Just getting back to civilization and catching up.
Observations:
This game is a whole lot of fluff so far. Rev and Grund voting, but mostly quiet. Newcastle, purge, and bb2112 volleying trivialities. Stess visiting from Prague and gearing up his participation to join the Remus/Lassr debates.
I don't see anything to diminish my suspicions of any of you having sharp, pointy teeth that spring out in the moonlight.
It is somewhat interesting that Lassr thinks the scan would be "wasted" on Remus, but is that a true slip, or wolfy stess trying to create a "slip," as he has been known to do in the past?
Remus' self-vote makes me want to vote for him, as I'm sure he's well aware.
I suspect that one of Lassr or stess is bad, so let's try stessier

The only thing I "volleyed" was a puppies comment. There are now two votes on Stess at this point. Would a wolf contribute to a train and give it momentum, I wonder?(were you wondering this before or after you realized Stess blew it?)

[*]

Qantaga is already on Stessier.

[*]

RevHempus71 wrote:I have just one question Qantaga. If you believe one of Stess or Lassr is evil, why vote for the one that is not voting for you? Qantaga

Right after Qan posted his vote on stess, Rev leaps to Stess's defense and instead of voting for either or opening discussion, accuses Qan.
(the underlined is Purge; (leaps??? I was refering to the use, or lack thereof, of the Tirggercut principle.)
[*]Following that, Stess then steps up on Qan's accusation of the "slip" that Lassr may have been planting false hints of being a seer to later claim he is the seer. Lassr swings his vote over to Stess at that point, and withdraws Qan.( again underlined is Purge; Qan's accusation of Lassr? Was it not Stess with the "poke the innocents much" comment. Is this your way of trying provide a back door to mess with Q , when the frame job on me fails?)

[*]Rev drops a irrelevant comment, and Remus bumps Stess to n-1.

[*]Newcastle asks why Stess is up on the block (defense, perhaps?), and moves in on Grund. (claiming I'm present, my last post was quite some time ago).

[*]stessier (4): bb2112, Qantaga, Lassr, Remus West N-1
It should be noted that NC is on Grund, and Qantaga was solid on Stess the whole time. He hadn't changed his vote, and if he were wolf, I'd think he'd try to undercut certainty. Several other targets were available. Grund then strings up Stess, and we bag a wolf.[/li][/list]

NIGHT 1 EVENTS

NC comments on missing the vote (n+1 lamentation, possible wolf act to "hang with the guys" so-to-speak).
Lassr comments on frequency of day1 wolf kills
BB2112 woohoos for "us".
Lassr is killed. Seer risk pretty much is the likely reason he died.

DAY 2 EVENTS

Rev writes up comments based on Qan's post (I've quoted above). Then he somehow draws conclusion that Qan is wolf based on "Gearing up" indicating its a slip from an implied wolf-forum discussion, rather than an understanding that stess isn't in it and is now more available to get into this particular fray. Grund drinks the cool-aid, and then Remus thinks about it and indicates that it would be unlikely that the wolves would stack the deck against themselves by throwing one under the bus at the beginning of the game.
Qan basically calls out Rev right away with Day 1: Rev defended Stess.(again with the Rev Defended Stess statement)
Here's where the NC "distraction" begins:
Newcastle wrote:
Remus West wrote:....snip..... I find it odd that Newcastle decline to express any intention to vote stessier yesterday but simply questioned the vote being there. ......snip.......
wanted to know why people were voting for him. I hadnt read the thread thoroughly (skimmed it) and was curious why he was run up so fast. I was also waiting to see how things woudl turn and develop as well. I really didnt expect him to go to the gallows so quick.

if anything, i think Remus comes out smelling hte best there...yea, i am sure thats gonna heighten your paranoia about me....but mainly due to Rev's statement of not putting your partner at #4.

Question woul dbe: would grund put his partner over the edge like that? So i cant clear grund...and yes i think he'd do something like that. Especially due to these short games, his chances at surviving to end game are high.
This is where I come back in (top of page 4) since Page 1 puppies comments. I call out those who pan me off as "usual". I also comment that I think Grund *would* pull the rope on his own.
Rev then pipes up with this (emphasis his):
RevHempus71 wrote:
Qantaga wrote:
RevHempus71 wrote: How's that for a moment of clarity??

Your moment is the exact opposite of clarity.

I have no experience with you to know if, as a wolf, you would come out so strongly on the offensive. ( you are right you don't know how I play)

What I do find interesting is that, after I accused stess yesterday, you came out questioning that vote and accused me, in what could have been a diversion tactic in stess' defense. ( I found it odd that you didn't at least throw some kind of jab Lassr's way after he voted for you.)

I think anyone can look back with "clarity" and see that my accusation of stess provided the momentum for his death. If I were a wolf, there would be no reason for me to put stess in that position. ( how is being the 2nd vote providing momentum? )

I'm suspicious of Grund's vote, too. Rev comes out with an elaborate theory, drawing "evidence" (color coded, no less) from a post where I correctly named a wolf. Grund doesn't bother to try to explain why he thinks Rev's unlikely conclusion has any merit (all he offers is a hemp joke), he just throws down a vote. What a nice gift for a wolfy Grund. If Rev is a misguided innocent and not the wolf, Grund helps kill me today, then gets to watch Rev come under scutiny for being so wrong about me. (I am an innocent, maybe misguided {pot can do that sometimes}. )(now reread that from the Idea that Grund was our seer)

So, not surprisingly, I'm suspicious of both Rev and Grund at the moment, but It would be nice to hear opinions from the rest of the players.
BB goes after NC. Grund goes after Remus.
NC does some analysis, and then points to Grund or Rev (with highlighting Stess doing the early jab at packmate day1). Eventually he drops his accusation on Rev.
BB then reviews the actions of NC resulting in a Grund accusation. NC defends his posts and the depth of which he analyzed it.
Rev then TP's NC's claim, defending his "insight" flaw based on him not being a logical thinker.
NC asks for a reason as to why he's being voted for, and notes that he is N-1. Remus backs off his NC vote, to which Grund hops right on bringing NC back to N-1.
Rev then backs off the NC vote. Rev places a dramatic plea with the village that since he's at the top of the list that he can get one more smoke in. Remus moves back in on NC.
Rev hops back on the NC train (n-1) with 2 things (and only lists one - that his posts are soft- more prodding than probing).NC calls Rev on following Remus, and assures Rev that he thinks Rev is the wolf.
There is some back and forth with NC and Rev, followed by BB calling out Rev's false claims of BBs voting pattern.(yup, I did that and I got exactly what I thought I would get from a goodish BB, a quick correction calling me out for it.)
Rev goes back to dramatics with a self-vote putting him at 2 votes.
Then NC decides to hunt silents instead, starting with Grund, and Rev is the only one voting for Rev:
Grund votes for NC, and explains it as TP. They have a little discussion, while Rev defends his self-vote.
NC then turns his accusation to me (as I was silent/non-present).
Grund agrees putting me at N-2.
Qan goes after Grund.
Grund then explains his NC vote (putting Newcastle to n-1):
Grundbegriff wrote:
theohall wrote: Newcastle (3): bb2112, Remus West, RevHempus71 N-1
I put Newc back at N-1 after Rev pulled away, because I wanted to watch a wolf pounce and put him over.
It didn't happen.
For this reason, I strongly suspect that our wolf is either Remus West or bb2112.
Thing is, Rev was on NC, but had left. It also means that Grund either suspected, or KNEW that NC was human.
Grunds "test" was at 3:38PM - baiting the wolf to kill NC. He never mentioned NC in his suspicion.
At 5:00pm, 45min before the end of his test, Rev had this to say:

RevHempus71 wrote: withdraw Rev Hempus

Thinking.....
A wolf contemplating the trap.
Then this gem then popped out of Grund:

Grundbegriff wrote:
Qantaga wrote:Then, why did you vote purge?
That's my default vote, as illustrated at day's beginning.
Thing is, he no longer suspected me, so I believe Grund may have been our Seer and was re-running his test on me, to see who would have piled on to draw out a decent target for scan and accusation for today.
Rev continues to go after others - In this case tries to start up the Remus train, and Grund having indicated his suspicion was Remus, hops on board.
Qan goes back to Newcastle, and Grund reasons that by not joining the crowd, that Qan needs to die and invites both Rev and NC should join him in killing that monster. NC drinks the cool-aid and joins the mob against Q, and Grund asks Q why not Remus.

Q explains that NC isn't seer (since he went to N-1) and that Remus may be and didn't want to expose him.
NC is at N-1. Grund pushes hard for Remus, since if he's seer he's already been marked for death ( a ploy to possibly survive the night).
NC rails against my absence (and at this time I am truly absent - earlier I had checked and wrote something only to cancel my post).[/li]

[*]DAY2 ends - no kill.
[/list]

NIGHT 2 EVENTS

A half hour after the vote closesRev drops a vote against Qantaga.
Then he apologizes!
Grund is killed.

DAY 3 EVENTS

We begin discussion on the skipped night, and frankly I'm running out of time in writing this so I'm just skimming page 6 on.
Rev basically says Qan then NC as his prime suspects.
When NC indicates seer should come forward, Rev decides to move his accuse from Q to NC.
This is after I've asked us all to look at yesterdays behaviour before we start with the accusations.
BB accuses me based on my silence, even though I've been contributing significantly during Day3.
Remus goes after NC based on the stess lynch (where he didn't cast the vote that Grund got in as the kill). NC TP's.
Then NC and Remus begin the back-and forth, with everyone else sitting back.

/// and here we are.

My conclusions are in the next post.

Don't quote my whole message - I've given you numbers to help along.

[/quote]
My thoughts are in blue.

RevHempus71 · Post by **RevHempus71** » Mon Dec 19, 2011 3:53 am

My thoughts are in blue.

purge wrote:Sorry for some of the formatting errors, it's a bloody long-arsed message, and the BBcode here is different than GT's ([li] vs [*], for example, and close tags for [li], with none for [*]).

That being said,

Our survivors:

1) Purge - mostly silent. Absent for much of the game, and trying to play differently to learn more about the villagers. Not in on ANY votes in Day2, and only had one vote on BB2112 from the get-go because of a puppies comment. Wolf ploy? Unlikely.( does anyone else find it odd that he got upset when others called him silent.....yet here he says it about himself? This "trying to play differently" sounds like setting up a defense (to be used in case of emergency). Also note the reference to "not in on ANY votes in Day2 & the seemingly harmless puppies inspired vote( is this a set up for "wouldn't a wolf be trying to get villagers lynched" argument?)

2) Qantaga - Day 1 vote on Stess with no wavering. Could have undercut the momentum. Stacking the game against the wolves on day 1? Unlikely.

3) bb2112 - Day 1 on Stess after dancing with accusations against me. His voting goes here and there, but I don't think he's our wolf.

4) Remus West - Day 1 on Stess, N-1. Likely wolf move? Nope. Possible, perhaps Grunds decisiveness surprised them. His behaviour is consistent with his normal gameplay though, and while he's not always right, he is a natural leader and has been doing so.

5) NewCastle - I believe him to be human as well. Although he missed the Day 1 kill vote, he has been solid in his arguments and there haven't been any slip-ups. He'd be my second pick over our wolfy candidate.

6) RevHempus - Wow. Just read my above post and focus solely on Rev's actions. From attacking an all-but-proven Qantaga, to the "inspired" actions, self-votes, dramatic defense when no heat was on him to late votes and the "Thinking..." in the midst of Grunds trap, he's got all the markings of the wolf. He was desperately trying to get trains started during the day2 dusk / lynch crunch. Plus, he's been playing the "I'm a stoner" card pretty damned hard, and he DEFENDED STESS.( 3 strikes your our wolf, again I never defended Stess. I merely asked why Q felt the triggercut principle didn't apply in that situation since it was Day1(isn't that by definition when that very thing is to apply?)

Purge is human (not seer)
Qantaga is human
Remus is human
BB2112 is human
Newcastle is likely human

RevHempus?

RevHempus needs to die like his packmate, Stessier

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Mon Dec 19, 2011 10:08 am

Skip

purge · Post by **purge** » Mon Dec 19, 2011 1:58 pm

I'm pulling all of Rev's comments out for relevance.

RevHempus71 wrote:
purge wrote: This is my contribution to our win. It's train-of-thought while reading, so bear with me.(should say wolf with me)

Really? That's how your start your case?

RevHempus71 wrote:
purge wrote: Stess hopped all over him on that comment and he justified it with "likely lynch means wasted scan" and then claimed villager. Died that night and the tender care of the wolves. (we know what happened to your packmate)

"I know you are, but what am I?" Nice.

RevHempus71 wrote:
purge wrote:There are now two votes on Stess at this point. Would a wolf contribute to a train and give it momentum, I wonder?(were you wondering this before or after you realized Stess blew it?)

You realize I'm pondering Qan at this point, right? This had nothing to do with Stess, and my comment is from the day AFTER Stess was hung.

If you're implying whether I was pondering joining the train on Day1, I guess you really haven't been paying attention. I rarely hop on Day1 trains, and I certainly wasn't around enough to pay attention to any hints Stess may have dropped. The fact that I didn't vote, not my absence, is about the only typical "Purgelike" behaviour I've exhibited this game.

[*]
[/quote]

Qantaga is already on Stessier.

RevHempus71 wrote:
purge wrote:
RevHempus71 wrote:I have just one question Qantaga. If you believe one of Stess or Lassr is evil, why vote for the one that is not voting for you? Qantaga

Right after Qan posted his vote on stess, Rev leaps to Stess's defense and instead of voting for either or opening discussion, accuses Qan.
(the underlined is Purge; (leaps??? I was refering to the use, or lack thereof, of the Tirggercut principle.)

So not using TP means accuse the other, rather than questioning him? It's a diversion tactic to put someone on the defensive. That would be leaping to conclusions, that would be defending a wolf, and I've called you on it a half-dozen times and this is the first time you even bother to respond to it on Day4, because I'm not letting you let that one fade into the past.

RevHempus71 wrote:
purge wrote: [*]Following that, Stess then steps up on Qan's accusation of the "slip" that Lassr may have been planting false hints of being a seer to later claim he is the seer. Lassr swings his vote over to Stess at that point, and withdraws Qan.( again underlined is Purge; Qan's accusation of Lassr? Was it not Stess with the "poke the innocents much" comment. Is this your way of trying provide a back door to mess with Q , when the frame job on me fails?)

Frame job? Please... also Lassr made a comment that sets Qan's radar off. No one is proven, and being objective means looking at each and every person as a possible wolf (as Qan - at the time of writing that, was very much alive and well).

RevHempus71 wrote:
purge wrote: Qan basically calls out Rev right away with Day 1: Rev defended Stess.(again with the Rev Defended Stess statement)

Yeppers. That's what it's called when you TP as a proxy for a wolf.

RevHempus71 wrote:
purge wrote: Rev then pipes up with this (emphasis his):
RevHempus71 wrote:
Qantaga wrote:
RevHempus71 wrote: How's that for a moment of clarity??

Your moment is the exact opposite of clarity.

I have no experience with you to know if, as a wolf, you would come out so strongly on the offensive. ( you are right you don't know how I play)

What I do find interesting is that, after I accused stess yesterday, you came out questioning that vote and accused me, in what could have been a diversion tactic in stess' defense. ( I found it odd that you didn't at least throw some kind of jab Lassr's way after he voted for you.)

I think anyone can look back with "clarity" and see that my accusation of stess provided the momentum for his death. If I were a wolf, there would be no reason for me to put stess in that position. ( how is being the 2nd vote providing momentum? )

I'm suspicious of Grund's vote, too. Rev comes out with an elaborate theory, drawing "evidence" (color coded, no less) from a post where I correctly named a wolf. Grund doesn't bother to try to explain why he thinks Rev's unlikely conclusion has any merit (all he offers is a hemp joke), he just throws down a vote. What a nice gift for a wolfy Grund. If Rev is a misguided innocent and not the wolf, Grund helps kill me today, then gets to watch Rev come under scutiny for being so wrong about me. (I am an innocent, maybe misguided {pot can do that sometimes}. )(now reread that from the Idea that Grund was our seer)

I think you messed up here, man. Grund tests people. He let whatever you wanted through the gate, even though others who aren't quite so ... diligent? in their estimation of others (I include myself in that) still called you on it. Why do you think he gave you the bye? Because you're innocent, or because he was testing you? A seer has one scan, and a villager has less. Grund is resourceful in finding things out.

Just like trying to rebuild a structure from looking at its outside is nearly impossible - without Grunds disclosure we have no blueprint from which to draw upon his voting, and testing, patterns.

I do think the idea presented, when read again, has merit, and should be scrutinized for the truth of my actions.

I know who I'm voting for - I'm willing to skip.

skip

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Dec 19, 2011 2:47 pm

Thursday - Day Three

1. Remus West - Skip
4. purge - Skip
5. RevHempus71
9. bb2112

Skip (2): Remus West, purge

Majority is 3
Deadline is Wednesday at 10 pm ET[/quote]

Since skipping was never addressed in the rules and you all could just create a skip anyway by not voting, I will move this along if the majority votes to skip using the accuse tags.

RevHempus71 · Post by **RevHempus71** » Mon Dec 19, 2011 4:11 pm

bb it looks like it is up to you? I said already that I will not intentionally baulk.

Yeah, I get the reasons behind it. I agree with what it would do to reset the playing field.

Paint me as a wolf if you want, I know this will be used to do just that..... (when it does, ask yourself this. Why would I put a bullseye on my chest and not just go along with it? Would it not be smart to lay low and try to look like I am playing for the village. Yes it would, ( oh wait... guess I covered the smart stuff before.... insert hemp joke here....

Just for you Purge) but is it not our collective fault that a majority was not met. It IS a situation we all created .We should all be willing to live or die accordingly.

(side note: I would like to see a forum discussion, after this game of course, about future prevention of this kind of thing. Maybe there should be a rule for this.)

So that all being said.

my thoughts going forward,

Grunds actions are paramount.... A good grund always leaves something behind.

BB2112, I can not see you as anything but Human .... May the force be with you.
Remus, You have looked human since the Stess vote. If I am wrong Kudos to you and GG.
Purge, you hairy lil beast, I hope you hang.

Purge

purge · Post by **purge** » Mon Dec 19, 2011 4:32 pm

RevHempus71 wrote: Purge

So me being on you is a sign of wolfishness? How does *that* add up? Do you see my vote on your name? Should I now vote for you as a TP, since thats the only measurement you use in deciding if a vote is justified, meanwhile you voted for Qan when you were not being voted against?

I am not for senseless death. Whomsoever dies tonight, dies for a reason - because a vote today does not gain us anything, and someone dying tonight doesn't cost us anything.

75% miss vs 66% miss?

Duh.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Mon Dec 19, 2011 7:14 pm

Skip

Since I think I'm going to die tonight, please don't discount Remus as the possible last wolf. I have never seen him this quiet, and I think Rev and Purge may be too focused on each other.

See you guys on the other side.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Dec 19, 2011 7:18 pm

Thursday - Day Four

1. Remus West - Skip
4. purge - Skip
5. RevHempus71 - purge
9. bb2112 - Skip

Skip (3): Remus West, purge, bb2112
purge (1): RevHempus71

Majority is 3
Deadline is Wednesday at 10 pm ET

Voting is Closed!

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Dec 19, 2011 7:21 pm

The village quickly decided the best way to find a wolf was to let him eat another victim. Well, most of the village. RevHempus71 seemed to be reticent in regards to lighting one up and in a momemt of lucidity decided purge should be eliminated. The rest of the village disagreed.

No one was lynched!

IT IS NIGHT.

Wolves, who will you eat?
Seer, who will you scan?

Orders due by Thursday at 10 PM ET.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Mon Dec 19, 2011 10:43 pm

The night passed swiftly. At one point, the villagers thought they might have heard the beginning of a scream, but it ended abruptly. As they gathered in the Village Square, it was obvious bb2112 was missing as only three villagers appeared. All three went to investigate bb2112's room together. What they discovered was a mostly eaten corpse, head still intact with the eyes open and staring at the writing on the wall. The writing appeared to be from the blood of bb2112. It read, "Behold my masterpiece. VENGEANCE!!!!" as if this were some work of art and not a grisly murder by some bloodthirsty werewolf.

Friday - Day Five

1. Remus West
2. Newcastle - lynched
3. Lassr - Monday night snack
4. purge
5. RevHempus71
6. stessier - Wolf, lynched by village
7. Qantaga - Beheaded Wednesday night
8. Grundbegriff - Beheaded Tuesday night
9. bb2112 - eaten Thursday night

Majority is 2
Deadline is Thursday at 10 pm ET

RevHempus71 · Post by **RevHempus71** » Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:59 am

So Remus or Purge.

Since I have already said plenty about Purge and Purge against me..... no need to beat that dog anymore. So lets talk about Remus shall we.

My list,

1st, Was the Stess/Lassr thing grave enough(at the time) that a wolf Remus would deem it necessary to sac his partner. Then take the chance he didn't get lynched by day 3 for just being Remus and alive that long.

2nd, There is no 2nd. I can not see Remus taking that gambit.

Now I would like to see Purge post why I should vote for Remus.

purge · Post by **purge** » Tue Dec 20, 2011 9:39 am

Rev, beyond my persecution of you, I haven't actually done anything wolfy, and Remus has had far more experience in these games, meaning he would feel more comfortable in taking that risk.

Sure, I was quiet on day one and two - I also didn't try to hide that or ride it.

Remus has been *really* quiet since NC died. Before I continue with my thoughts, I'd like to hear from Remus first.

purge · Post by **purge** » Tue Dec 20, 2011 11:06 am

There was something bugging me- Remus had been playing oddly- I said he was a leader earlier (since he wasn't) - that was a shot.

I read through all of this thinking Remus is the wolf. Here we go again:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Remus West wrote:Oh....I like me. I'll help simplify my life.
Remus West

Remus did the self-vote. This may be him laughing at us, or going for the "I'm innocent again like last game" ploy that either Qan or NC pointed out earlier.

stessier wrote:
Lassr wrote:
Lassr wrote:
Remus West wrote: withdraw Remus West

Sigh. Nobody wants to try that game. I wondered if it could lead to both baddies again this time but guess not.
two games in a row...this time it could be an even more prefect disguise.

The self vote is going to get you killed again...
I can't decide whether you should die today or have a scan wasted on you.
Poke the innocents much?

Lassr

Stess identifies Remus West as an innocent, when Stess wasn't even involved, and then diverts attention to Lassr.

Also, if you look at the voting pattern Day 1, there are a number of usual back-and-forths that are inconspicuous at first, but look at how many people he accuses, and what they turned out to be. As a wolf, he'd be looking to start a train on them. He hid in the Stess voting pack to get him this far - look at how much scrutiny went into Grund being a wolf (being last one one) or Newcastle missing the boat entirely.

Remus West wrote:
Lassr wrote:
Remus West wrote:
Lassr wrote:The self vote is going to get you killed again...
Probably. And yet you are still avoiding voting for me just like you were doing last time. Strange isn't it.
Not to me.
So you detail why I am going to get lynched today or tomorrow but withhold your vote and you do not find that strange? Interesting.

stessier, I actually agree with Lassr's thinking on the scanning. If you think someone is going to get lynched anyway then scanning them is a waste. Although that is not the same thing as saying it is a waste to scan me. While I expect I will get lynched things do not always go to my expectations in these games. A living confirmed Human is valuable.

Now, were I a wolf, I would have killed an innocent Remus LONG before I would have taken out Qan. I made it explicitly clear who I did or did not trust. You likely didn't die last night because you were a wolf, it was because you and I had a vocal conflict. The wolf Remus may have let us live assuming we'd vote each other.

I knew BB wasn't the wolf and was likely to die last night because I have been suspicious of Remus since Day 3. He didn't even say *anything* (which is atypical for Remus) on the skip vote.

I fought with this yesterday - look for my italicized "actions" statement because if I did, then I wouldn't be around to explain my strategy.

This doesn't remove my suspicion of you, but Grund being seer, or Grund being grund, I look at his hints and think: what did he know? He singled both you and Remus out in the voting pool.

Here's Stess's death:

3:03pm

Remus West wrote:anyway, if my count is correct, this puts
stessier

at n-1.

4:38

Remus West wrote:
Lassr wrote:
Newcastle wrote:so why is everyone running up stessier? Whats the big pull there?
well my vote is based on him voting for me using the excuse that he thought I made a slip...when in fact I did not.
Meh. I could see reading it both ways depending how you approach the Seer role. You and I share the same philosophy on it (we'd rather find scans that will live rather than risk one that will likly get lynched in an effort to find a wolf). stessier and I have talked about it in the past and he feels you should always target a suspected wolf. Thus, I initially read what you wrote as you claim to have intended but I can see where he would read it differently.

As for my vote, I'm voting him because he was nearest the edge and I wanted to see what would happen to him when pushed to the brink.

5:24

Grundbegriff wrote:Not at all as retribution for posting our private brainstorming into the Prague thread, I accuse stessier

5:59

Remus West wrote:I guess we'll find out.

Thinking of Remus as wolf - this sounds a little like regret.

Builds his own defense:

Remus West wrote:Thinking things over I have a hard time thinkning that anyone voting stessier is a wolf. Day 1 in a game with only 1 other wolf they would be stacking the deck against themselves. I find it very interesting that Rev says only Grund or I would be willing to try the solo run - thus implying that Qantaga and bb2112 would not be willing to make that play but then he turns around and votes for one of the players that voted stessier. I find it odd that Grundbegriff agrees with him quickly and jumps aboard that vote. I find it odd that Newcastle decline to express any intention to vote stessier yesterday but simply questioned the vote being there. Currently looking at those three but need to go back and read again as that is all by memory and what has happened since day break (both posts - well, all three if you want to count me razzing Rev - posts since then).

Grund, on Day 2, sends the following volley:

Grundbegriff wrote:Fascinating.

With stessier out of the way, the least we can do is vote against Remus West

If Grund is seer, Remus is not proven. Why would grund hunt a proven?

Remus West wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Fascinating.

With stessier out of the way, the least we can do is vote against Remus West

Now that is interesting.

Remus West wrote:
purge wrote:I generally don't make it to day 3. Trying to keep a low profile.

Actually, been really busy, and you people all know each other waaaaay better. I've not wolfed in a very long time (this is what, 7 games incl. GT) where I'm villager. The tells and the strategies have changed so drastically (a silent Grund?! REALLY?!!).

I think Remus' accusation of Newcastle is more telling than Newcastles "gentle" persuasion, but that could just be my ignorance.
Thats very interesting.
withdraw Newcastle

Grund then votes for Remus a second time (as he did with me day 1):

Grundbegriff wrote: Remus West

He's trying too hard to make hay.

Here's Qan's take per Day 2 (shortened):

Qantaga wrote:Ah, my very favorite gambit... the self vote.

Rev, if you are innocent, why are you self voting?

My morning fled rather quickly and my afternoon is flying away, too. I haven't forgotten the deadline.

As I said, I am suspicious of everyone at the moment:

- Rev, mainly for his post voting for me after I accused stess. Now knowing that stess is a wolf, it strikes me as an attempt to deflect attention from stess. Also, for his rather elaborate case against me at the start of this game day, which I know to be completely false.

[...]

[...]

- Remus, for the calculated self vote early on, which struck me as an attempt to do what he did in the previous game when he was innocent. I got the feeling that it was an attempt at trying to try to put himself in the same perceived state of innocence. Lassr seized on that. Is that why Lassr was killed? The n-1 on stess looks good for Remus, but he would know that, wouldn' he? One thing that will probably keep me from voting Remus today is that he may have been a good scan target last night, based on his arguing not to be scanned yesterday. So, I think there is a possibility that, unless Lassr is the Seer, Remus may have already been outed today, if he were the remaining wolf.

- Purge, for not resembling the WW persona I'm used to seeing with him. Meta reasons, or wolfish ones?

[...]

I need about an hour to think things over, then I'll vote.

After the first Grund test:

Grundbegriff wrote:
theohall wrote: Newcastle (3): bb2112, Remus West, RevHempus71 N-1
I put Newc back at N-1 after Rev pulled away, because I wanted to watch a wolf pounce and put him over.

It didn't happen.

For this reason, I strongly suspect that our wolf is either Remus West or bb2112.

bb2112 is definately not the wolf. Note that I'm at two votes with Grund at that moment, clearly another test.

Grund then switches to Remus - who has been conspicuously silent.

Grundbegriff wrote:I'm going to leave my vote on Remus West

because he's the only one who stands out to me as conspicuously wolfy. If I were Mitt Romney, I'd bet $10,000 on it.

It comes down to this for me.

I don't play WW enough to *know* peoples tells. Regardless if Grund was seer or villager, he is Remusperienced. Rev, you're freshly back, and I've only been in a handful of games with this crowd, and since I don't generally go into the other sections much, the back-and-forth with these guys is more intimate.

I'm going to make a decision in short order, and I think Remus is going to just sit and wait to see if he's won or not.

You could be the wolf, but I just haven't felt it. I played harder against you to predict BB or Remus - I was almost certain of my vote yesterday, but since it ups the odds, the skip was the best gambit. Remus didn't really care, and since we were deadlocked, he's interested in speeding us to our demise.

If Remus votes you, I'm still voting Remus. It's a gut feel, since you've had so many missteps, but I have to go with what feels right.