OOWWL S01 Game 5 Villagers Win! Game Over!

[Remus West]

Interesting. So I become suspicious for being realtively silent on a day when there is nothing to discuss? I'm not a leader when I very clearly pushed hard for the Newcastle vote? I very much thought the game was over when we lynched Newcastle and him turning out to be a miss made me need to go back and reread as he was proven correct that I was to locked in on the wrong things.

You say that I am not proven if Grund is the Seer. How would I be proven if he were not the Seer? That doesn't make any sense.

Much as your push for Rev, you have made a case out of smoke and mirrors.

Your statement, purge, is interesting when not backed up by a vote. You're hedging. Waiting to see which way people jump and hoping to place the kill vote.
 purge 
 


If you are not the wolf then you have done a nice job convincing me to hand the game to Rev.

[purge]

Nope. Villagers don't take chances on this, and since you're not worried about all the evidence (or my flip from being 100% certain of Rev) means that I've caught you by the short furs.

It also solidifies for me my suspicion of you. You didn't go and try to defend any of the history posted, you go right for the kill. I brought Rev with me, since I had already crafted the message with my re-read, and Grund's actions forced me to reread with him as seer, and Rev as being human.

But, Just like yesterday, you've kept it simple. Anyone who's played with me knows I can be verbose, and frankly it's been to the villages' detriment. I held my tongue to get far enough into this that I can back my claims up.

Look at your contribution Day 1 vs. yesterday. "skip" is all we got from you.

I didn't vote because I didn't want to be wrong. For you, either of us is right and you have no risk. I won't vote without dialog, so the only way you win is if Rev doesn't take the time to realize how you're playing him.

Rev, what do you say?

I've left clues to indicate that I'd be switching - I skipped to today to eliminate the chance of BB being the under-the-radar. Even from Grund, and several others, Remus is a likely wolf. His stess vote was a bluff, and Grund called it.

I'll respect your input, I'll answer questions. We want to win this one.

Time is on our side, haste is on his. I will put the choice on you, but if you decide to cast your vote against me, you and I will lose.

 Remus West 
 

[Remus West]

Nope. Villagers don't take chances on this, and since you're not worried about all the evidence (or my flip from being 100% certain of Rev) means that I've caught you by the short furs.

It also solidifies for me my suspicion of you. You didn't go and try to defend any of the history posted, you go right for the kill. I brought Rev with me, since I had already crafted the message with my re-read, and Grund's actions forced me to reread with him as seer, and Rev as being human.

But, Just like yesterday, you've kept it simple. Anyone who's played with me knows I can be verbose, and frankly it's been to the villages' detriment. I held my tongue to get far enough into this that I can back my claims up.

Look at your contribution Day 1 vs. yesterday. "skip" is all we got from you.

I didn't vote because I didn't want to be wrong. For you, either of us is right and you have no risk. I won't vote without dialog, so the only way you win is if Rev doesn't take the time to realize how you're playing him.

Rev, what do you say?

I've left clues to indicate that I'd be switching - I skipped to today to eliminate the chance of BB being the under-the-radar. Even from Grund, and several others, Remus is a likely wolf. His stess vote was a bluff, and Grund called it.

I'll respect your input, I'll answer questions. We want to win this one.

Time is on our side, haste is on his. I will put the choice on you, but if you decide to cast your vote against me, you and I will lose.

 Remus West 
 

I voted because I'm sure of you being the wolf. I didn't like the push on Rev - remember, I'm the one who suggested he may have been a Grund scan - and I saw you trying to get the sympathy vote from him. You spent two days trying to get me to vote Rev and failed so you had to know that today you had to convince him to vote me. Failed again if the village is fortunate.

[purge]

We can only know what we know, and not know what is hidden.

To entertain Remus's accusation I've TP'ed. I know I'm good, I know one of you is not.

Remus comes out on the final day with a vote with little to back it up. He's jumping the gun. For shitsngiggles I checked on your (Rev) attendance - you hadn't signed in yet so if you were the wolf, you're being nonchalant about it when there are two votes on the table.

My actions are disclosed, Remus's are not. If Qan was here, his self-vote would have hurt him. I've backed Remus up in past games with justification of self-vote so I'm a safe bet not to cast against Remus, plus I was focused on you (Rev), or so I let you believe.

I answer Remus's post with why it could be you, and Remus votes for me instead of defending himself. How can he be sure of anything? Only one way - Remus is the wolf.

If he had a defense he would have used it, so instead Remus casts the first vote today with no questions answered in a bid to *NOW* use the leader model. Push forward, answer questions later. The last person he was "sure" about was a villager who hanged himself. Good job, Remus. I'm sure he'll come back with a limp response on this to downplay his role.

But, don't take it from me - here's BB's input:

 Skip 
 


Since I think I'm going to die tonight, please don't discount Remus as the possible last wolf. I have never seen him this quiet, and I think Rev and Purge may be too focused on each other.

See you guys on the other side.

I'm pulling all of Rev's comments out for relevance.

[... shortened ...]

Rev then pipes up with this (emphasis his):

How's that for a moment of clarity??

Your moment is the exact opposite of clarity.

I have no experience with you to know if, as a wolf, you would come out so strongly on the offensive. ( you are right you don't know how I play)

What I do find interesting is that, after I accused stess yesterday, you came out questioning that vote and accused me, in what could have been a diversion tactic in stess' defense. ( I found it odd that you didn't at least throw some kind of jab Lassr's way after he voted for you.)

I think anyone can look back with "clarity" and see that my accusation of stess provided the momentum for his death. If I were a wolf, there would be no reason for me to put stess in that position. ( how is being the 2nd vote providing momentum? )

I'm suspicious of Grund's vote, too. Rev comes out with an elaborate theory, drawing "evidence" (color coded, no less) from a post where I correctly named a wolf. Grund doesn't bother to try to explain why he thinks Rev's unlikely conclusion has any merit (all he offers is a hemp joke), he just throws down a vote. What a nice gift for a wolfy Grund. If Rev is a misguided innocent and not the wolf, Grund helps kill me today, then gets to watch Rev come under scutiny for being so wrong about me. (I am an innocent, maybe misguided {pot can do that sometimes}. )(now reread that from the Idea that Grund was our seer)

I think you messed up here, man. Grund tests people. He let whatever you wanted through the gate, even though others who aren't quite so ... diligent? in their estimation of others (I include myself in that) still called you on it. Why do you think he gave you the bye? Because you're innocent, or because he was testing you? A seer has one scan, and a villager has less. Grund is resourceful in finding things out.

Just like trying to rebuild a structure from looking at its outside is nearly impossible - without Grunds disclosure we have no blueprint from which to draw upon his voting, and testing, patterns.

I do think the idea presented, when read again, has merit, and should be scrutinized for the truth of my actions.

I know who I'm voting for - I'm willing to skip.

 skip 
 

emphasis mine. I suspected just before NC had hung himself that he was on the right path. If I said anything I'd be dead that night. I kept quiet, and resumed my RevHempus crusade after Qan was dead. The statistical probability was a sure thing, so changing yesterday wouldn't have helped.

BB was sure he was the wolf, and he died last night. Me pointing it out might seem like a wolf defense, and I acknowledge that.

Lassr felt that there was no point in scanning remus, since a good remus = a dead remus, and that a night kill would surely prove him. Qan was so rock-solid on Stess that there is no question.

I urge you to re-read, from page one, and focus on Remus, Stess, and Grund with the idea that Grund is the seer, and the other two are wolves. The evidence is there, and while I could quote till the cows come home, you need to see it for yourself.

In reading it the first time, I found your guilt (initially) but when you asked me to re-read it with grund as seer, I saw the layers that I alluded to and how you had also been tested. You didn't step into the trap that Grund specifically set up for Remus (and explicitly stated).

Grund was sure, and died. BB was sure, and died. I let the wolf believe I was focused on you when the truth is, I was watching him.

Rev, it's up to you.

[purge]

I voted because I'm sure of you being the wolf. I didn't like the push on Rev - remember, I'm the one who suggested he may have been a Grund scan - and I saw you trying to get the sympathy vote from him. You spent two days trying to get me to vote Rev and failed so you had to know that today you had to convince him to vote me. Failed again if the village is fortunate.

I was not spending two days trying to convince you of voting for him, but rather looking at who outside the two of us was the wolf. I didn't think NC was the wolf - I put you in the "unsure/safe" category on the public side, but at the point that I was ready to re-examine the thread with you as wolf, NC decided to put a noose over his own head. From there, there was no point coming out with what I thought until today.

But hey, it's good that you kept track. Close eye on us, eh? You barely (if ever) interacted or worked to resolve a squabble. Why would you want to un-tie a knot that secured your victory?

Rev - while re-reading - Note Grunds' "Remus trying to make hay" comment. Remus ignores it completely, trying to let it fade. In fact, he currently supports the idea that Grund is the seer, but that day he blatantly ignored the 4 or 5 messages to kill Remus from Grund with NARY a response. Oh wait, Grund died that night - perhaps there was a response.

Why would a wolf want to bring two villagers into the final round who were already (seemingly) at each others throats?

I danced his dance. Now you get to kill the wolf.

[RevHempus71]

I am here now. I have been antagonistic and such for a reason. I have believed Since Grunds death that I was scanned and found to be the human I am. It was with that ammo I kept after those that i either didn't know as players, or that were not on the Stess train. Purge what you say as merit. I have thought Remus has played way to quiet.

 Remus West 
 
If for anything else because i couldn't live with myself if he was a wolf and i got played. Plus isn't a dead remus the only kind of good Remus....

It really comes down to this. When i felt Grund defended me, and bet against Remus I went all in from there. I played from the hip and placed accusations with created insight. I got what i wanted from everyone except Remus. He never really questioned me or anything. It has felt like he was trying to ride the wave.


GG either way.

[stessier]

[bb2112]

[Lassr]

[Remus West]

Ah well, good game, purge & stessier.

[theohall]

Friday - Day Five

1. Remus West - purge
4. purge - Remus West
5. RevHempus71 - Remus West

purge (1): Remus West
Remus West (2): purge, RevHempus71

Majority is 2

Voting is Closed!

[theohall]

The three remaining villagers sat in the Square eyeing one another trying to see who would blink first. RevHempus71 began speaking, but chose not to name one as a wolf until the others had spoken. purge followed suit. Remus West, feeling threatened by purge's oratory named purge the wolf. This, however, would be the undoing of Remus West. Both purge and RevHempus71 had quietly harbored suspicions about the recently reticent villager. With his sudden accusation, both turned upon him. They swiftly bound Remus West and drug him to the gallows. His last words seemed to indicate hanging him would bring doom upon RevHempus71 as he insisted purge was the wolf. RevHempus71 pulled the rope and Remus West hung until he was dead. While waiting for Remus West to die, purge spotted something under the gallows platform. He reached under and pulled out the two round bloodied objects. They appeared to be the heads of Qantaga and Grundbegriff which had been used as chew toys since their unfortunate deaths. As purge stared in horror, two eyeballs fell from Remus West's pocket in the midst of his death throws.

Remus West was the Wolf

VILLAGE WINS.

[theohall]

2 wolves 1 seer 6 villagers. Participants

Roles:

Spoiler:

1. Remus West - Wolf
2. Newcastle
3. Lassr
4. purge
5. RevHempus
6. stessier - Wolf
7. Qantaga
8. Grundbegriff - Seer
9. bb2112

Interestingly, Grundbegriff had scanned RevHempus71. Nice insight at the end.

[Remus West]

Oh well, I was quieter than typical due more to being busy than anything else but I had sent in a note to theohall saying my only real hope was for Rev to make a quick vote on purge as I did not believe purge thought Rev was the wolf. I went ahead and killed bb2112 though because I felt he was sure I was the wolf everyone else was sure he was human.

[Lassr]

The self vote is going to get you killed again...

Probably. And yet you are still avoiding voting for me just like you were doing last time. Strange isn't it.

and to elaborate a little more:

I am playing it exactly as I did last time and so are you...

I'm a villager this time so what does that make you this time?

I was planning on voting Remus if the stessier vote went no where. I was more sure of Remus than stessier at the time. Nice move of putting your partner at N-1 because it had me rethinking my position and actually PM'ed theohall that it could be Q instead of Remus. Again, need to stick with my initial gut feeling.

I was hoping my waste a scan on Remus "slip" would make the wolf think I was the seer and thus offing me and protecting the seer. Not sure if Remus killed me because I was going to vote to lynch him or if he thought I was the seer. Didn't even think it would catch another wolf trying to railroad me.

[LordMortis]

Curious, should non voting be a valid option? Can that confer a gamblers advantage to the village? I haven't tried the math yet but what happens if you skip the first two days, essentially like voting incorrectly on the first day, to narrow the field, give the wolves a little steam but give your seer a chance to get two scans if he lives?

[Remus West]

I was hoping my waste a scan on Remus "slip" would make the wolf think I was the seer and thus offing me and protecting the seer. Not sure if Remus killed me because I was going to vote to lynch him or if he thought I was the seer. Didn't even think it would catch another wolf trying to railroad me.

I killed you because you pointed at me. Same with Grund (although he was the only one I suspected of being the Seer and I was honest about my reasoning in that regard. Even shared that with theohall in my kill order). Same with Qantaga. Same with bb2112 to a lesser extent. I figured I had a very exceptionally long long shot once stessier was certain to bite it. This was down from the very exceptionally long shot we felt we had on seeing our names as the wolves. Anyway, I figured I needed to remove anyone who seemed to be looking my way.

[Isgrimnur]

I am very interested in the season's final standings.

[stessier]

Curious, should non voting be a valid option? Can that confer a gamblers advantage to the village? I haven't tried the math yet but what happens if you skip the first two days, essentially like voting incorrectly on the first day, to narrow the field, give the wolves a little steam but give your seer a chance to get two scans if he lives?

Yeah, theohall and I were talking about this. We should discuss it in the League Rules thread because there is definitely an advantage to punting.

[Lassr]

I killed you because you pointed at me. Same with Grund ... Same with Qantaga. Same with bb2112 to a lesser extent. I figured I had a very exceptionally long long shot once stessier was certain to bite it. This was down from the very exceptionally long shot we felt we had on seeing our names as the wolves. Anyway, I figured I needed to remove anyone who seemed to be looking my way.

Yep, there was no frame job going on here, just straight up killing the competition!

[LordMortis]

Curious, should non voting be a valid option? Can that confer a gamblers advantage to the village? I haven't tried the math yet but what happens if you skip the first two days, essentially like voting incorrectly on the first day, to narrow the field, give the wolves a little steam but give your seer a chance to get two scans if he lives?

Yeah, theohall and I were talking about this. We should discuss it in the League Rules thread because there is definitely an advantage to punting.

I don't know if there is but my gambling brain is asking me to figure it out. If you figure first day kill is random (though you learn a bit about voters) 22% wolf kill to a 14% or 16.5% seer kill if you lynch day one. If you don't lynch day one you get a 28.5% seer kill. If the seer doesn't die then you get between 0 and 2 scans that could determine the logistics of the rest of the game.

Again I don't know enough to know if them's good odds or not.

[purge]

Rev, you REALLY know how to set off my alarms. Glad I had made the time for a re-read or six.

Remus, you made it down to the wire by yourself - Kudos to you. IMO you should have hid in the 25%. That skip post sealed it for me, and you provided me more room than you should have. NC's suicide allowed the game to move forward - I had re-read x3 already, and saw what he, and grund, saw.

What I wrote to Rev was mostly true - I needed to put it in a way that didn't shoot my efforts in the foot - something I frequently do. ("Aptly named" indeed, Grund )

I got the sense that BB was a villager, but in no way was I sure. Had you have killed Rev (whom I knew wasn't wolf and had hinted at yesterday), it would have been more work for me. I had an entire writeup, and decided to roll the dice since I wasn't 100% on BB, and I didn't want to stall the game with the PC repairs I had going on at that time.

You already had Rev voting for me, so you could have used the whole "spirit" of the game to say you didn't feel comfortable in breaking it.

Seems like Stess got caught early, and your play of N-1 was fantastic. It took you off my radar for 2 days. Kudos to Grund who, IMO, along with Rev, really won this game. I stayed alive the whole way through and *finally* had some input to the outcome rather than people just reading my actions to determine my guilt.

Also, had you won Remus, I still would have respected you in the morning.

[Remus West]

I thought about resisting the skip but figured all that would do was force a tie and await the time out as neither you nor bb2112 would have voted. I know bb2112 and he is stubborn enough to not have voted you and you would not have voted for yourself (at least I doubt you would).

BTW, the self vote thing was done deliberately to demonstrate that the action itself is worthless for analysis. It is how people react to it that matters. It should also produce a dead self voter (since you, the group, can only use the results and reactions if you know what the player was).

[bb2112]

Ha, I was pretty sure it was Remus. His vote to put Stessier at N-1 was great, but then Grund pulled the trigger before Stess could come in and derail the train and allowing Remus could pull his vote. That was awesome! I am so glad that Rev and Purge made peace at the end.

Grund, who did you scan?

[Grundbegriff]

Good game, all. Esp. you, Remus. You almost pulled it off.

I announced that I was the Seer right here. But in half a dozen games where I've declared my role, nobody every pays attention or believes. So... yeah.

Whenever I'm the Seer in a game with no defense, I figure I'm short for this life. So yes, my poking had the dual purpose of making me seem a bit wolfy (so that perhaps Evil would leave me to the will of the madding crowd) and stirring up reactions to test my hypotheses about who was innocent and who was guilty.

My hope was to live to a third day and then return two scans. I decided to scan people I thought would last a while. So I checked RevHempus, and then associated myself with him in a variety of ways the next day to drop a hint. purge was my second scan, but I died at the hands of YKW.

There was a lot of good assessment of my behavior, but I thought it was hilarious that people picked over everything I had said except my dead-sure comments about the guy who actually got my repeated and final vote on the eve of my untimely demise. So I'm glad to see that the analysis did eventually turn on that point.

Good work, purge and Rev. Don't ever again allow yourself to think that "Remus wouldn't do that"

[RevHempus71]

I am at work now. GG y'all.

[purge]

I think I need to run a game to gain appreciation for the rest of the layers involved.

Grund, I didn't understand the ninja icon, and I saw it but really shouldn't have ignored it as it is pretty obvious.

My first and second reads (when I compiled the list that damned Rev, the first was the list, the second was before I submitted it entertaining the idea that you were seer and that Rev might not be a wolf) didn't catch your hints (e.g. "I have no reason to believe you are not a wolf").

I had already decided to turn up my volume (to be the loudest, incorrect person and gauge behaviours) so when I did get it, I had to drop my italic hint just before we let Remus eat BB. I didn't want me to get eaten, and somehow my death enshrining my false crusade to BB.

When he posted that he would be dying that night and that he had thought Remus was the wolf, I facepalmed because we could have ended that day. Until that comment, I didn't have a read on BB and while I was sure of Rev and *almost* sure of Remus, I wasn't 100%.

GG everyone. That was a lot of fun, and I really enjoyed thinking at a deeper level and being a more active participant.

I think the skip / miss element is sad, and while we used it to our advantage, in the spirit of the task at hand, I think villagers need to still act in a way that preserves MOST lives. This precludes mob-assisted suicides (AKA no self-votes count at N-1) or heading off to bed to save the village tomorrow. If they are allowed, perhaps a point penalty needs to be issued.

There isn't enough respect found for those who have died - in either action. It is a game of survival, not just a WW vs Human win. Everyone is willing to sacrifice too quickly. I'd put forth that the next league scoring incorporate #days both wolves live, and counterbalance with how many remaining days/nights the village could have continued.

There would have been a points incentive for us to not skip to counter the benefit of a 1-in-3 vs 1-in-4 shot.

[Remus West]

For those of you thinking I would pull my vote from stessier, you are wrong. I had no intention of doing that. I knew that I had to be on that train to have any shot at all.

[purge]

For those of you thinking I would pull my vote from stessier, you are wrong. I had no intention of doing that. I knew that I had to be on that train to have any shot at all.

I didn't think otherwise. In fact, I think you enjoyed not have stess around to steal your thunder.

[Remus West]

For those of you thinking I would pull my vote from stessier, you are wrong. I had no intention of doing that. I knew that I had to be on that train to have any shot at all.

I didn't think otherwise. In fact, I think you enjoyed not have stess around to steal your thunder.

Always easier with more bodies on your team but you have to play the tides of war.

[RevHempus71]

Good game guys.

Purge sorry about blasting you so hard, but I was unsure of BB and Remus. I figured if I kept at you we would survive the night. I had decided that If it came down to you and I that Remus was a gonner. However, I will say that had Remus died last night I would have voted you off.

So on to the next one eh.

[RevHempus71]

I had already decided to turn up my volume (to be the loudest, incorrect person and gauge behaviours)

How about that. Funny we were both doing the same thing.....When grund followed me twice i knew he had to be the Seer, and i hoped you all noticed but I sure as hell couldn't point it out myself. So I went kind of ballistic, and tried to argue with damn near everyone.

Oh and just for you Purge..... I am gonna smoke a victory joint now ......

[RevHempus71]

Good work, purge and Rev. Don't ever again allow yourself to think that "Remus wouldn't do that"

I will forever live the mantra " the only GOOD Remus is a dead Remus"

[Qantaga]

Very nicely done villagers. Congrats to all!

I'm out of town, but will have some game thoughts and observations tomorrow night.

A quick statement and question, while I have a moment.

- I am in favor of banning the skip vote, but only if there is also a mechanism to force a lynch.

- Grund, why didn't you kill Newcastle at the deadline of our forfeited lynch?

[Grundbegriff]

- Grund, why didn't you kill Newcastle at the deadline of our forfeited lynch?

Because I thought Newcastle was innocent and thought Remus West was guilty.

[Qantaga]

Ah, simple enough.

[bb2112]

Good work, purge and Rev. Don't ever again allow yourself to think that "Remus wouldn't do that"

I will forever live the mantra " the only GOOD Remus is a dead Remus"

Lassr felt that there was no point in scanning remus, since a good remus = a dead remus, and that a night kill would surely prove him. Qan was so rock-solid on Stess that there is no question.

 withdraw Remus West 
 

Sigh. Nobody wants to try that game. I wondered if it could lead to both baddies again this time but guess not.
Anyway, the only really active is bb2112 and he is doing exactly what I would expect so that doesn't mean much.

And everyone is doing pretty much what I expected too. Nobody likes to lynch you early in these games. With your over 23K posts you must have built up some serious street cred.

Interesting... People acknowledge the only good Remus is a dead Remus, but when it comes time to vote...

Unless someone with higher prefernce wants a whirl, I'll be in. I can at least participate as much as most of the silents.

Besides, it will give Remus an early Christmas present when he convinces the rest of you to lynch me.

Nah. I'm feeling bad for the downfall of your FF team. From the likely favorite to win it all to a one and done team. Due to this I will kill you in the night to reduce your misery.

Ha, made it to the Super Bowl! Remus is wrong once again! I guess except for the part of killing me in the night. Merry Christmas Remus! And I wont quote it here, but you did die the next day.