OOWWL S01 Game 5 Villagers Win! Game Over!

[purge]

Voting you off for being a distraction is stupid. It provides the wolves another night kill, and unless we're sure you're a wolf, there is no point.

[theohall]

Vote Count: Wednesday - Day Three

1. Remus West
2. Newcastle
4. purge
5. RevHempus71 - Qantaga
7. Qantaga
9. bb2112

Qantaga (1): RevHempus71

Majority is 4
Deadline is Sunday at 10 pm ET

[Newcastle]

Voting you off for being a distraction is stupid. It provides the wolves another night kill, and unless we're sure you're a wolf, there is no point.

dude, it sucks being next to the gallows then being not on it....i much rather be dead than having to spend another day hanging on the edge of it.

And i dont think its dumb though...seriously if i am that much of a mind block to folks and they think i can only be guilty and not consider other avenues of thoughts....then i am a massive roadblock and probably should have been voted off yesterday.

Mind you - i am not saying...piss off vote me off i am taking my ball home.......if it helps my team win in the long run by me dying...i dont mind.

because i defintiely see tomorrow my being a centerpiece of discussion if people are absolutely fixated on me...and voting for me tomorrow will mean a definite loss, and i dont want that to happen. I much rather die early so you guys can recoup from that mistake rather than be the final strike and 3rd out in the 9th inning.

[Qantaga]

Newcastle, your newfound feeling of self-destruction would have been more helpful before the deadline. As is, we forfeited one of our strikes, learning nothing from it, and now we have to deal with your cries for death.

I am now baffled that Grund chose not to kill Newcastle. I could only come up with two possibilites last night. The first was that Grund was the wolf, trying to burn one of our strikes at the cost of learning any true data. The other was that Grund might have been the Seer who had already scanned Newcastle as innocent. That (Grund Seer scenario) does not add up, though, since he was willing to put Newcastle at n-1 yesterday. risking losing scan information anyway. As the day went on, I became more convinced of Grund being a wolf, because his plethora of votes looked like he was trying to accuse any and all, in an effort to expose the Seer. Obviously, I was mistaken in that regard. The wolf did me a favor today because I would probably have come into today with Grund as my main suspect.

It would appear that our Seer is gone. Everyone has checked in with no Seer information forthcoming.

This may sound bold, Newcastle, should Q prove to be a human I will be voteing your way next.

It's interesting that you're already setting up conditionals for a vote that you know to be wrong already.

I'm going to have to take a new look at the thread, since we're now down to two strikes.

[Qantaga]

Thinking ahead.

Hopefully, we will hit the wolf today and win the game. However, if we miss, I think it will be important to refuse to lynch tomorrow (next game day).

If we don't get the wolf today, that will bring 3v/1w tomorrow. A miss would then end the game (2v/1w with the miss, overnight wolf kill ends the game). If we refuse to lynch tomorrow (let the deadline pass, or maybe theo would count a majority refusal without having to wait out the deadline), that would mean a smaller pool (3 players) for the wolf to hide in the day after tomorrow, than the pool (4 players) if we try to lynch tomorrow.

[theohall]

If we refuse to lynch tomorrow (let the deadline pass, or maybe theo would count a majority refusal without having to wait out the deadline), that would mean a smaller pool (3 players) for the wolf to hide in the day after tomorrow, than the pool (4 players) if we try to lynch tomorrow.

I think I would rather see all of you argue the merits of lynching or not lynching over that time period, if the forces so aligned. It would be more informative for all of you.

[bb2112]

Thinking ahead.

Hopefully, we will hit the wolf today and win the game. However, if we miss, I think it will be important to refuse to lynch tomorrow (next game day).

If we don't get the wolf today, that will bring 3v/1w tomorrow. A miss would then end the game (2v/1w with the miss, overnight wolf kill ends the game). If we refuse to lynch tomorrow (let the deadline pass, or maybe theo would count a majority refusal without having to wait out the deadline), that would mean a smaller pool (3 players) for the wolf to hide in the day after tomorrow, than the pool (4 players) if we try to lynch tomorrow.

Yeah, I was going to suggest the same thing if we missed today. If the majority pass, then the day should flip to night.

[bb2112]

If we refuse to lynch tomorrow (let the deadline pass, or maybe theo would count a majority refusal without having to wait out the deadline), that would mean a smaller pool (3 players) for the wolf to hide in the day after tomorrow, than the pool (4 players) if we try to lynch tomorrow.

I think I would rather see all of you argue the merits of lynching or not lynching over that time period, if the forces so aligned. It would be more informative for all of you.

You have a point, however, this game most people are laying low. Making it difficult to get a good read.

[Newcastle]

Thinking ahead.

Hopefully, we will hit the wolf today and win the game. However, if we miss, I think it will be important to refuse to lynch tomorrow (next game day).

If we don't get the wolf today, that will bring 3v/1w tomorrow. A miss would then end the game (2v/1w with the miss, overnight wolf kill ends the game). If we refuse to lynch tomorrow (let the deadline pass, or maybe theo would count a majority refusal without having to wait out the deadline), that would mean a smaller pool (3 players) for the wolf to hide in the day after tomorrow, than the pool (4 players) if we try to lynch tomorrow.

Yeah, I was going to suggest the same thing if we missed today. If the majority pass, then the day should flip to night.

was thinking along the same lines so in case we had to push it to a day three, it was a 3 man day and not a 4 man. Since i think a 4 man would be a tougher rough to go through. getting 2 people to agree out of 3 is easier than 3 of 4.

[Newcastle]

i am of the mind of testing rev, he's been feeling wolfy all game to me.

i want to hear more from purge...

i really think i need to reread the thread w/ an open mind and discounting hte built in bias i created for Remus & BB being in the good camp.

i really think the seer needs to step forward.

[RevHempus71]

I agree that the lack of participation from some of the players has been a pain in the ass.

I will say that I don't like the idea of withholding a vote intentionally. Seems to be against the spirit of the game. I personally would rather go down swinging than scheming.

Now as for the Seer situation. I can only support the outing with valid info. seems to me to out the Seer today guarantees NO chance of scanning the last wolf. If you are so sure that a miss today = a game loss, why take away the only hope for a "hail mary". After all there is no way to know if our Seer has expired. I see it this way, Lassr - most likely not the Seer, really don't think he would have said anything seer related if he was. Grund - most likely not the Seer, can't see him playing all Scooptasticly if he was.

That being said, I would rather hang on to a glimmer than give in to a doom and gloom concept.

[RevHempus71]

i am of the mind of testing rev, he's been feeling wolfy all game to me.

i want to hear more from purge...

i really think i need to reread the thread w/ an open mind and discounting hte built in bias i created for Remus & BB being in the good camp.

i really think the seer needs to step forward.

WTF. You really believe that outing the Seer gives a better chance to win. Tell me how. Show me your numbers and analysis.

 withdraw Qantaga 
 
 Newcastle 
 

[Newcastle]

hopefully the seer has 2 scans....

if the seer comes out tomorrow on the last day there is going to be a HUGE cloud of doubt wether its a last ditch effort by a wolf to gain safety.

If he has 2 scans...it clears him up, and 2 others...narrowing our suspect pool down significantly...

6 left right:
bb
remus
qantaga
purge
newcastle
rev

take 3 people from that equation...you have a pool of 3 people to choose from...strike at one today, tomorrow we have a pool of 2 to strike from if we whiff today.

of course thats incumbent on the seer being alive.

if the wofl contests, then we nuke both "seers" and we win. one will have to be the wolf. simple...seer HAS to come out today.

[theohall]

Vote Count: Wednesday - Day Three

1. Remus West
2. Newcastle
4. purge
5. RevHempus71 - Qantaga, Newcastle
7. Qantaga
9. bb2112

Newcastle (1): RevHempus71

Majority is 4
Deadline is Sunday at 10 pm ET

[purge]

If the seer has scanned the dead, coming out just means they die tonight. One of us will anyways, so until the seer is ready to reveal, no pressure.

I do enjoy the idea of skipping a lynch to put the game back in the right sinusoidal wave. Sure, one villager dies, but that is better than two. Were we not in the situation with no lynch happening (IE: random lynch, or person with most votes but no majority) then the game would have had the vote count still in our favor. By skipping one we're swinging the balance.



There is the conflict. As a villager, I don't want to go to bed tonight thinking that we haven't done a damn thing to rid ourselves of a wolf, but the logic is sound when we think about keeping the eye on the prize.

Anyone know why Rev is ignoring the "hold off the voting" thing? He's swinging accusations around like hillbilly with a sawed-off.

I don't have time to do it right now - could someone raven up the numbers from last evening's wild escapades?

[bb2112]

take 3 people from that equation...you have a pool of 3 people to choose from...strike at one today, tomorrow we have a pool of 2 to strike from if we whiff today.

of course thats incumbent on the seer being alive.

if the wofl contests, then we nuke both "seers" and we win. one will have to be the wolf. simple...seer HAS to come out today.

Completely agree. If the seer is alive, he has to come out today to limit the pool of choices. That being said, it doesn't seem likely he is alive, since he would have probably come out already. Unless it is Rev and he is having reservations. Rev, if it is you, you need to come out. In the mean time, I'm getting annoyed with the silents. So based on my top three suspect list, the most silent is

 Purge 
 

[bb2112]

hunh, cross posted. The timing is uncanny.

[Remus West]

I do not support the "no vote" thing as it is essentially saying "let's try to win by not playing. This is a game for all of us not just the Seer and Wolf. I will be trying to find the wolf and voting regardless of what the rest of you choose.

Right now, I do not understand the hold off on voting thing. Sure, there is the chance of the last wolf putting down a killing vote but given the need for him to survive two more lynches I'm not overly worried about that. Well, I should say I understand it at the start but focusing on Rev for putting down lone vote seems weird to me.

As for the Seer, since everyone has checked in and nobody has claimed the role I'm going to go ahead and share my thinking on it by asking questions: Who, that is not a wolf, benefits by making it look as though they might be one? Who, that we know wasn't a wolf, did that? I'd also be very careful of anyone claiming the role today. If an uncontested Seer comes forth it becomes to easy for him to be a wolf or for the wolf to let him survive the night. For example:
Seer comes forward today and we have:
Seer
player 1
player 2
player 3
player 4
player 5

Seer tells us player 5 is Human but that he scanned Lassr/Grundbegriff. We lynch player 1 and discover him to be Human. Night comes and player 2 dies in the night. We go to day with:
Seer
player 3
player 4
player 5

Seer tells us that he now scanned player 4 and he is Human. This means that player 3 is the Wolf. So the Seer has told us exactly who the Wolf is and we lynch him only to find player 3 is Human and lose.
OR
Seer tells us that he now scanned player 4 and he is Human. We ask "How the heck did you live last night?" Then lynch the Seer and find him to be Human and lose.

The only thing we gain from having a Seer come forward is the knowledge that if he tells us someone else is Human they must be telling the truth regarding the other person. Also, note that I did not even go with the scenario where the wolf takes out the previously scanned player 5. We won't be able to trust in the Seer because there is no incentive for the Wolf to remove the Seer from the game right now.

Anyway, I'm still where I started regarding Newcastle. I did not like his play on day with the stessier lynch. I do not like his repeated calls for the Seer. I feel like he is testing to check if it is safe for him to claim the role without contest. As for his "recent death wish", we've seen the "Woe is me" from him in the past when caught with his paw in the cookie jar. It has worked for him in the past so this is two previously used wolf behaviors he is exhibiting this game.

 Newcastle 
 

[Newcastle]

Remus - who else do you suspect? I am really started to get very disturbed by your fascination by me. YOu see to be dogmatically going after me while not looking at everyone else. I would just think you would bear a more open mind.


i think i might actually be open to voting for remus....

[Newcastle]

 remus 
 


am getting tired of being on the defensive from himn....he seems fixated on me and no one else.....


and for the record, i think Grund was our seer (hence my repeat inquiries)...his play was too wacky or he was trying to drawn attention but i dont think he would do it that wasy. I think he was playing on the edge of suspicion in order to gain more scans.

[Remus West]

The reason I seem focused on you is that I am. I look at the others and I see actions that can be viewed as potentially wolfish but I look at you and I see several things that very much scream wolf to me. Right down to the semi-veiled attempt to back me off by now announcing you could vote for me.

So, as far as who else I suspect, that is easy. Everyone. All of them have done something I consider to be on the edge. None of them has done anything close to what you have done. If I am wrong about you then I'll need to go back over everything yet again but I don't think I will need to do that.

[Newcastle]

so who is #2 on your suspect list remus? Or do you not want to reveal this....because you dont want other asking about you?

Also when is a seer not coming forward a bad thing? Your numbers chart paints it as if its a big, curse...when in fact it could provide a bit of claruity and more information.

And everyone seems to be forgetting another angle here...a late jump on a wolf train is often a wolf....think about how often you've plauyed and you've seen a wolf hop on a packmates train in order to be seen as voting for a wolf....remus was #4....we shouldnt give him a free pass, because no wolf would do such a thing....when in fact a wolf would do such a thing in order to get that "voted for a wolf" sticker.

his unnatural fixation on me and not considering other alternatives...as a #2 suspect....is also suspect.

I think the remus west case needs to be re-opened.

[Newcastle]

The reason I seem focused on you is that I am. I look at the others and I see actions that can be viewed as potentially wolfish but I look at you and I see several things that very much scream wolf to me. Right down to the semi-veiled attempt to back me off by now announcing you could vote for me.

So, as far as who else I suspect, that is easy. Everyone. All of them have done something I consider to be on the edge. None of them has done anything close to what you have done. If I am wrong about you then I'll need to go back over everything yet again but I don't think I will need to do that.

so you dont find Rev's play a bit odd and forced at times?

You arent suspicious of Q?

You think BB is innocent (which you accused me of taking for granted as well...)

You arent wondering why Purge is quiet?

[Newcastle]

QUESTION TO THEO - Will the Wolf know if they have killed the seer at night? Do they get the identification of their nightkill?

[Newcastle]

Thinking things over I have a hard time thinkning that anyone voting stessier is a wolf. Day 1 in a game with only 1 other wolf they would be stacking the deck against themselves. I find it very interesting that Rev says only Grund or I would be willing to try the solo run - thus implying that Qantaga and bb2112 would not be willing to make that play but then he turns around and votes for one of the players that voted stessier. I find it odd that Grundbegriff agrees with him quickly and jumps aboard that vote. I find it odd that Newcastle decline to express any intention to vote stessier yesterday but simply questioned the vote being there. Currently looking at those three but need to go back and read again as that is all by memory and what has happened since day break (both posts - well, all three if you want to count me razzing Rev - posts since then).

I like where my vote is. I don't like Newcastle's list of folks he won't vote for. That looks like him trying to curry favor. I'm sticking with my vote.

He's refering to this:

fyi my vote could change also....i wouldnt mind voting for: purge (silence factor should be recognized soon) or rev either.....

I'd take some convincing to hit up Remus or BB

I dont like Q's reasoning to go after me when others are better targets.

I am not going to vote Grund down either.

(notice that BB & Remus & Grund are the ones i'd hesitate to vote for..and he also never made any overt moves against them....so despite him not going after those people or even indicating they are guilty......he doesnt liek the fact that i am not inclined to go after them...which is in essence his same position? seriously?

I like where my vote is. I don't like Newcastle's list of folks he won't vote for. That looks like him trying to curry favor. I'm sticking with my vote.

i dont intend on voting for grund today, tomorrow perhaps (if i make it).

for BB - i dont think he'd stick on his partner the whole day

for Remus - i think putting your wolf pack mate at n-1 and so close to the edge is a very ballsy move as a wolf, BUT....i dont think a wolf would risk it this early in the game. I am still on the fence if you would...but I keep leaning toward innocent in that move...sorry remus.

Here's the thing though. The first player you listed has been the only one to really want to go after the second two you listed. Grund is not playing a Grund game. He seems to be playing a Scoop game. So I don't understand why you would mention not wanting to vote for him today.

(because i thought grund was the seer Remus...that's why)

[Newcastle]

at the moment: lassr feels innocent to me,


gray zone: remus


I could kind of vote stessier, but want to see others pipe up.

Grund has disappeared

BB - is trying to be mr. humorous

Reve- posted then disappeared. kind of want to vote him, but i also dont want to vote him out on his first game back (yeah yeah, compassion...blah blah blha).

Q- feels off

Purge - is present


meh-

 grund 
 


this is more in the interest in hearin him speak, rather than a belief in his guilt

Thinking things over I have a hard time thinkning that anyone voting stessier is a wolf. Day 1 in a game with only 1 other wolf they would be stacking the deck against themselves. I find it very interesting that Rev says only Grund or I would be willing to try the solo run - thus implying that Qantaga and bb2112 would not be willing to make that play but then he turns around and votes for one of the players that voted stessier. I find it odd that Grundbegriff agrees with him quickly and jumps aboard that vote. I find it odd that Newcastle decline to express any intention to vote stessier yesterday but simply questioned the vote being there. Currently looking at those three but need to go back and read again as that is all by memory and what has happened since day break (both posts - well, all three if you want to count me razzing Rev - posts since then).

[Newcastle]

So Remus...i ask again...who else to you suspect out of:

BB
Rev
Qantaga
Purge

(I left myself out, since you've been doggin me all game....see what i did there )

[purge]

I find it funny that I mention that the last wolf can spend their time hiding behind "vote for silents" and get away with it, and then BB votes for me.

 bb21112 
 


TP.

As for Remus vs. Newcastle ( ), I'm not prepared to vote for either of you at this time, simply because I don't see what Remus sees (perhaps you could remind me?), and if I thought NC was wolf, I would have voted for him the morning of the final day (the last time I checked it before the deadline passed).

I don't know people, and when I open my mouth I tend to die. Look at my history - I purge myself accidentally by thinking out loud, and move the village closer to a loss.

Since no one responded to my request to Ravenize the back and forth voting, perhaps I will do so.

[Newcastle]

purge- the only way to get over the "stigma" if i talk i get lynched...is by talking...because if you dont talk...that hurts us more than helps us. This is a team game after all. Because in the long run you will only alienate people by not saying antying....and over time we'll get use to your style and such....so i would plead of you to speak your mind rather than not saying anything. It would make the game much more enjoyable.

[Remus West]

I keep my lists to myself because I don't want the wolf to use them as a menu. That said, it seems silly to keep them back when I feel so sure that Newcastle is the wolf so if we lynch him he won't get to eat anyone.

I agree that Grund was probably the Seer. I do not, however, ignore the implications of what he did yesterday as Newcastle has been doing. Grund opened yesterday with this:

I definitely think you're onto something, Rev. No, not on something. Onto something.

 Qantaga 
 

Mildly following someone on an odd vote is not normal Grund. Following someone he had scanned as a means to show he trusted them on the other hand is solid Grund.
Thus, RevHempus is lowest on my list right now given this bit AND the manner in which he has played being consistant with past play.

Qantaga is the next lowest because he really kick started the stessier train and his suggestion of "no lynch" does help us more than the wolf (although I do not agree with implimenting it due to it essentially making this a game between the wolf and seer only).

bb2112 would be next lowest because I doubt he sits around with his vote on stessier if he is the other wolf. He also interacted with me exactly how I expected him to on the first day. He voted and gave a little push towards me then backed off and went trying to find a wolf.

Purge would be last and the most likly other wolf due to being gone and when he is here saying how he always gets himself lynched. Why care if you get lynched if doing so leads to the exposure of a wolf?

That said, I can come up with reasons why each of my previous thoughts are off. What if Grund wasn't the Seer? Then his following Rev certainly means nothing. Bad guys have put forth plans that benefit Humans before, stessier did in a JLA game. Is that what Qantaga is doing now? bb2112 wasn't around much day 1 after the stessier vote got rolling. If he had been would he have pulled his vote to stall it? Many people play with the idea of self preservation (I actually seem to be odd man out in that regard) so it really is not that odd that Purge strives to survive.

All that said, it is speculation. I look at Newcastle and I see trends over time and facts.

Fact 1: Did not vote for stessier when given the chance (trend 1 as Newcastle can usually be counted on trying to avoid throwing his team under the bus)
Fact 2: Questioned the vote against stessier. An act he has admitted he has used in the past successfully to derail a train against a partner.(trend 2 of his past behaviors)
Fact 3: Claims he thinks he wants to be removed as a distraction (which is trend 3 as he has used this in the past to avoid being lynched as well)
Fact 4: In spite of saying he knows he is going to be the focus and thus a distraction decides that my finding him guilty is reason enough to come after me.

Newcastle looks very much like the final wolf to me.

[Newcastle]

Fact 1: Did not vote for stessier when given the chance (trend 1 as Newcastle can usually be counted on trying to avoid throwing his team under the bus)
-false - i would throw my team under the bus if needed

Fact 2: Questioned the vote against stessier. An act he has admitted he has used in the past successfully to derail a train against a partner.(trend 2 of his past behaviors)

- it was early in the day and i was wondering why everyone was running toward him; i wanted to see what peopel's thought processes were

Fact 3: Claims he thinks he wants to be removed as a distraction (which is trend 3 as he has used this in the past to avoid being lynched as well)
-consider that the mellowing effect of jury dutyI'd undersnad if peopel voted me off, dont mean i wont go down swinging. that was the gist of it, and i vascilated on it and still am. but i do know if we dont get a wolf today an di am alive tomorrow, i will be a distraction, which sucks for us and i dont want to be in that position

Fact 4: In spite of saying he knows he is going to be the focus and thus a distraction decides that my finding him guilty is reason enough to come after me.
i cant triggercut? and also re-evaluate my positions

Newcastle looks very much like the final wolf to me.

[theohall]

QUESTION TO THEO - Will the Wolf know if they have killed the seer at night? Do they get the identification of their nightkill?

No.

[Newcastle]

I keep my lists to myself because I don't want the wolf to use them as a menu. That said, it seems silly to keep them back when I feel so sure that Newcastle is the wolf so if we lynch him he won't get to eat anyone.

I could have sworn you've shared lists in the past Remus...or is this a new policy? Kind of odd not wanting to share w/ the group.

I agree that Grund was probably the Seer. I do not, however, ignore the implications of what he did yesterday as Newcastle has been doing. Grund opened yesterday with this:

I definitely think you're onto something, Rev. No, not on something. Onto something.

 Qantaga 
 

havent gone through and disected his moves yet....but that is an interesting find re: Rev. And yes it had occured to me to go through to parse what grund did/say & accuse.

If he was the seer...he had 1 scan, would it be the person he didnt vote for? Which it seems according to you it woul dbe Rev....and if thats the case....then i need to rethink things re: Rev.

[Newcastle]

Actually the more i talk w/ you here Remus the more i am growing to think that you are indeed the wolf. You're usually a bit more open minded w/ things; your suggestions about ignoring a potential seer is a weird, weird suggestions;

I also wouldnt put it past you to vote for a pack mate as the #4 vote, so A. you are on the wolf train and B. its a very nice spot to jump on as a wolf...since its not too late...but its a "hmm better get on this in case this goes bad" spot.

And you arent beneath throwing a team mate under the bus though. So you could easily have said, well i lose Stessier but at the same time i do gain "good will" and i can claim that i am watching the crowd and reactions.

But seriously, you usually arent this laser focused on 1 person.

[Remus West]

So you want to claim a triggercut on day 3? You do know that that idea was based as a day 1 manuver that, given no better information, voting for someone voting against you at least worked to eliminate someone voting to harm the village. So you are saying that day 3 you have nothing better to go on then "He is voting for me"?

At least talk about my self vote, my potential for throwing my own team under the bus, that Grund targetted me at the end of yesterday, there has to be so many more reasons you can manufacture to vote against me and you fall back on that one? Please. You are not making an actual case against me because you have to be able to express your doubts tomorrow and say how you really didn't want me out but felt you had to do it etc.

[Newcastle]

seriously? so i cant vote for you because you are voting for me? Because you are attacking me? because you are stuck in this one position? have i not listed other reasons I am voting for you?

please, stick to math, revisionist history aint your deal dog!

[Remus West]

Fact 1: Did not vote for stessier when given the chance (trend 1 as Newcastle can usually be counted on trying to avoid throwing his team under the bus)
-false - i would throw my team under the bus if needed

Fact 2: Questioned the vote against stessier. An act he has admitted he has used in the past successfully to derail a train against a partner.(trend 2 of his past behaviors)

- it was early in the day and i was wondering why everyone was running toward him; i wanted to see what peopel's thought processes were

Fact 3: Claims he thinks he wants to be removed as a distraction (which is trend 3 as he has used this in the past to avoid being lynched as well)
-consider that the mellowing effect of jury dutyI'd undersnad if peopel voted me off, dont mean i wont go down swinging. that was the gist of it, and i vascilated on it and still am. but i do know if we dont get a wolf today an di am alive tomorrow, i will be a distraction, which sucks for us and i dont want to be in that position

Fact 4: In spite of saying he knows he is going to be the focus and thus a distraction decides that my finding him guilty is reason enough to come after me.
i cant triggercut? and also re-evaluate my positions

Newcastle looks very much like the final wolf to me.

Be careful with that quote. The bolded stuff is Newcastle, the regular stuff is me. I added the color to NC's comment.

You said yourself, the reason you are voting me is triggercut. The rest of this stuff is coming out now rather than previously.

[Newcastle]

so who is #2 on your suspect list remus? Or do you not want to reveal this....because you dont want other asking about you?

Also when is a seer not coming forward a bad thing? Your numbers chart paints it as if its a big, curse...when in fact it could provide a bit of claruity and more information.

And everyone seems to be forgetting another angle here...a late jump on a wolf train is often a wolf....think about how often you've plauyed and you've seen a wolf hop on a packmates train in order to be seen as voting for a wolf....remus was #4....we shouldnt give him a free pass, because no wolf would do such a thing....when in fact a wolf would do such a thing in order to get that "voted for a wolf" sticker.

his unnatural fixation on me and not considering other alternatives...as a #2 suspect....is also suspect.

I think the remus west case needs to be re-opened.

/cough

posted Oh about an hour ago....reasons for voting for Remus....

i am starting to really like the idea you are the last wolf remus...the fact you wont share a list of suspects is really making me wonder. I think the simple fact you dont want anyone else coming after you is behind that reason actually. If 2 people start harassing that might turn into more...after all why make more enemies than youc an handle right?

as i said before, stick to math...revisionist history and spin doctoring aint your forte dogg!

[Qantaga]

Qantaga is the next lowest because he really kick started the stessier train and his suggestion of "no lynch" does help us more than the wolf (although I do not agree with implimenting it due to it essentially making this a game between the wolf and seer only).

I'm advocating allow the deadline to run out without a lynch tomorrow (game day), not today. We forfeited one of our misses with the first passed deadline. How is the "no lynch" making the game between the wolf and seer only (the seer may already be gone)? It is increasing the odds of us find the last wolf by reducing the pool to 1 of 2, rather than 1 of 3 on the last day. It's moving the odds slightly back in our favor after we gave up one of our misses, with the passed deadline.

I agree that Grund was probably the Seer. I do not, however, ignore the implications of what he did yesterday as Newcastle has been doing. Grund opened yesterday with this:

I definitely think you're onto something, Rev. No, not on something. Onto something.

 Qantaga 
 

Mildly following someone on an odd vote is not normal Grund. Following someone he had scanned as a means to show he trusted them on the other hand is solid Grund.
Thus, RevHempus is lowest on my list right now given this bit AND the manner in which he has played being consistant with past play.

I can't reconcile Grund being the Seer.

If he was the Seer who scanned Rev, why wouldn't he have killed Newcastle? He knows (surely) that a passed deadline costs us a miss (from three to two), so why wouldn't he want to learn Newcastle's role and who voted for him? If Newcastle is the wolf, Grund could have won the game. If Newcastle is not the wolf, we would have at least had data on who was willing to lynch him. If Grund was the Seer who had scanned Rev, why wouldn't he want the lynch of Newcastle?

The only logical conclusion I can come up with for Grund to be the Seer (as I mentioned earlier) is if Grund scanned Newcastle as human, thus not wanting to kill his only known human. However, that idea falls apart since Grund had no aversion to putting Newcastle at n-1 earlier in the day and exposing Newcastle to a killing vote anyway.

[purge]

compiling thoughts on full game, been at it for a bit. Please hold off any voting until my next post.