(Almost) Simple WW Game #2 - Game Over

[Qantaga]

Qantaga posts since the one above: Zero...

You realize this is a PM allowed game, don't you?

I'm here and quite fully engaged.

No Votes (4): Bubbles, Remus West, triggercut, Qantaga

And, even though it's Day 1 (still more than three days to deadline), I do like to think a bit before casting what is mostly a random vote.

[bb2112]

Trying to prevent me from messing up the good guys? Good idea.

[Newcastle]

 austin 
 


i think he's a wolf...got a PM from him claiming seer...oh yeah...i went there...i dont believe him

[El Guapo]

Yes, because if we learned one thing from last game, it's lynch a currently uncontested seer claimant.

[Newcastle]

a. the seer (if not austin, which i am 90% sure of) would not contest now...he has ZERo scans and zero information...

b. let me pose a hypothetical...youre the seer...would as one of your first acts send a pm saying the following: "Hey i am the seer, i dont think you are a wolf, very small % chance you are. I have also sent the PM to 3 other people. I am gambling that i am right. I want you to be my proxy voice".

seriously, as a seer w/ ZERO information would send a PM to a person, and indicate you sent it to 3 other players? Seriously? You have no scans and just the law of averages to go with.

C. i also dont believe him because this would be a wolfish austin stunt to pull.


So yeah....my shortlist right now:
El Guapo (for the "i'm not a wolf post")
Austin - for the fake seer PM

Now...who's the third..

[Lassr]

Qantaga posts since the one above: Zero...

You realize this is a PM allowed game, don't you?

I'm here and quite fully engaged.

No Votes (4): Bubbles, Remus West, triggercut, Qantaga

And, even though it's Day 1 (still more than three days to deadline), I do like to think a bit before casting what is mostly a random vote.

See, that raw meat drew you out didn't it!

[Mr Bubbles]

 austin 
 


i think he's a wolf...got a PM from him claiming seer...oh yeah...i went there...i dont believe him

I got the PM too, but man.. if he turned out to be the real seer, you just screwed us over...

[Lassr]

 austin 
 


i think he's a wolf...got a PM from him claiming seer...oh yeah...i went there...i dont believe him

I got the PM too, but man.. if he turned out to be the real seer, you just screwed us over...

So, that is 2 of the 4 Austin claimed to have PM'ed.

[bb2112]

 austin 
 


i think he's a wolf...got a PM from him claiming seer...oh yeah...i went there...i dont believe him

I liked what he did. Of course I didn't believe he was the seer (and thankfully our seer is smart enough not to come out), but I believe he did it to draw fire and gather info. I highly doubt, if Austin was special, he would pull such a ballsy play. At least not on day 1. Not only does it draw a ton of attention, it will probably also draw a scan so the seer can verify to himself that Austin was not wolf in villager's clothing. And the wolves, they will be second guessing themselves on whether to just end him in the night. Either way, it is putting himself way too much out front this early. In my mind, only a crazy ass villager would take that kind of risk.

Ausitn is the one guy I will not vote for today. If he makes it to tomorrow, then we will see where we stand.

As of right now, I would like to hear what info Austin gathered in his fact finding mission.

[Mr Bubbles]

I certainly didn't make up my mind about Austin one way or another, but I would have liked to give him more time to also gather information on my end. that outing causes that avenue to be shut prematurely. Would have liked it to play out a bit more than it did.. Thanks Newcastle...

[Lassr]

I certainly didn't make up my mind about Austin one way or another, but I would have liked to give him more time to also gather information on my end. that outing causes that avenue to be shut prematurely. Would have liked it to play out a bit more than it did.. Thanks Newcastle...

+1

I was waiting to see where Austin was going with this.

[triggercut]

I got that PM as well.

Swell, Newcastle. Just swell. Instead of using your doubt (and trust me, no one who got that PM took it at face value; you're not a special flower here) to watch and see how Austin played things...now we're stuck with having to figure out both you and Austin both now.

[bb2112]

I got that PM as well.

Swell, Newcastle. Just swell. Instead of using your doubt (and trust me, no one who got that PM took it at face value; you're not a special flower here) to watch and see how Austin played things...now we're stuck with having to figure out both you and Austin both now.

+1 Although I kind of have things sorted in my head about Austin (at least for now), the play by NC really has me baffled.

NC, do you really think Austin's play was made by a brazen wolf?

[El Guapo]

I got that PM as well, but hadn't yet made up my mind as to what to make of it. bb and Lassr, did you get the PM too?

[Remus West]

I got the same message about "I'm the Seer and sent this to three other people" sounds like he sent it to many more than the number claimed.

[triggercut]

See, I think it could've been made by a brazen wolf, but I wanted to see where he went with it. Wanted to give him a turn or two. I was about to ask him who his other contacts were, mostly because I figured that if Austin's contacts turned out to be a wolf hit-list, we'd know which team he played on. But hey, give him a shot, and if he turns up a wolf in the first two turns then kudos to him.

Honestly, it was a puzzling play by Austin. Really questionable. I have numerous questions about it that we can discuss to take this a different direction now that watching Austin to see what he does is off the table.

[Qantaga]

It appears to have been a global PM.

Add me to those that would have liked to see it play out further.

[triggercut]

I got the same message about "I'm the Seer and sent this to three other people" sounds like he sent it to many more than the number claimed.

Hahahahaha!

Did anyone NOT get that PM then???

[triggercut]

So yeah.

Austin, I think I trust you MORE now....

[bb2112]

I got that PM as well, but hadn't yet made up my mind as to what to make of it. bb and Lassr, did you get the PM too?

I did. I was thinking if he really did send it to only 3 people (and he wasn't the seer), then it was quite brilliant. So I pressed Austin in a PM back to tell me who the other 2 he sent it to. I wanted to know in case he died at night then I would have at least 2 prime suspects for tomorrow. And if he didn't die, then the suspicion on the other 2 would lessen a little in my mind. That is when he admitted he sent the PM to everyone. He also sent me a PM after that and said he is going to make his information public but can't reply in the main forum right now. I don't get it either, but I'm sure he will explain when he can.

[Remus West]

So yeah.

Austin, I think I trust you MORE now....

Interesting. Not bothered by the prospect of an antsy Seer claiming the role today? You mention the idea that Austin's contact list might act as a menu. What if the Seer felt the same way and wanted to make sure he got one of them since there was a guy claiming his role?

[Austin]

I sent the same two PMs to everyone. (Even stessier) I have compiled all the responses and will share all the data. I am missing a reply from Remus and RMC to my "Terrible Mistake" message thanks to Newcastle, who incidentally is my #1 suspect presently. But my plan has been to share my data anyway, so no great loss.

A couple things. I did think it was night. I might have tried things a bit differently during a day cycle, to be sure I did not get a jumpy seer. No seer would have come out against me at night.

My original thought was to share with 2 people, not three. Then the number of wolves increased and I figured no one would buy my play with sharing with 3 people. Also, each wolf receiving a PM should have made them figure out that I sent to more than I said, or am uber unlucky. So all three wolves have read and responded to me, as has the seer.

My plan has been to share my info, however I am leery of outing the seer. My second wolf suspect is also my #1 seer suspect. I think I would like to share the responses but as players 1, 2, 3, 4 etc. . . . Let you judge what you can from the unbiased data - play styles not withstanding. I am open to thoughts though. I could also just share my notes on each players' response. For instance, one player mentioned there being 2 wolves. Is he misleading me, or did he think there are two wolves?

Internet has been spotty today (I can PM via Tapa Talk but not post) but it seems to be good now. I am putting the kids to bed now but should be around to get y'alls thoughts on how to proceed.

FWiW, I am leaving my vote where it is unless something changes.

[triggercut]

So yeah.

Austin, I think I trust you MORE now....

Interesting. Not bothered by the prospect of an antsy Seer claiming the role today? You mention the idea that Austin's contact list might act as a menu. What if the Seer felt the same way and wanted to make sure he got one of them since there was a guy claiming his role?

So you're saying our Seer got antsy on day 1? How the hell do you reckon that happened, exactly?

Be specific, please. I'm dying to see how you make that leap of logic.

[Remus West]

So yeah.

Austin, I think I trust you MORE now....

Interesting. Not bothered by the prospect of an antsy Seer claiming the role today? You mention the idea that Austin's contact list might act as a menu. What if the Seer felt the same way and wanted to make sure he got one of them since there was a guy claiming his role?

So you're saying our Seer got antsy on day 1? How the hell do you reckon that happened, exactly?

Be specific, please. I'm dying to see how you make that leap of logic.

I'm saying that trusting Austin due to a play that COULD have caused the Seer to jump as you seem to have is certainly an interesting position to take. BTW, how much did you trust him before finding out he sent it to multitudes?

[Lassr]

See, I think it could've been made by a brazen wolf, but I wanted to see where he went with it. Wanted to give him a turn or two. I was about to ask him who his other contacts were, mostly because I figured that if Austin's contacts turned out to be a wolf hit-list, we'd know which team he played on. But hey, give him a shot, and if he turns up a wolf in the first two turns then kudos to him.

Honestly, it was a puzzling play by Austin. Really questionable. I have numerous questions about it that we can discuss to take this a different direction now that watching Austin to see what he does is off the table.

I asked him the same thing and he told me to be patient.

[triggercut]

So yeah.

Austin, I think I trust you MORE now....

Interesting. Not bothered by the prospect of an antsy Seer claiming the role today? You mention the idea that Austin's contact list might act as a menu. What if the Seer felt the same way and wanted to make sure he got one of them since there was a guy claiming his role?

So you're saying our Seer got antsy on day 1? How the hell do you reckon that happened, exactly?

Be specific, please. I'm dying to see how you make that leap of logic.

I'm saying that trusting Austin due to a play that COULD have caused the Seer to jump as you seem to have is certainly an interesting position to take. BTW, how much did you trust him before finding out he sent it to multitudes?

I didn't trust Austin at all, as I stated. I wanted to see how he played his hand though.

[theohall]

 withdraw El Guapo 
 


I was willing to play along with Austin's plan to see what transpired.

Unfortunately, or maybe fortunately,  Newcastle 
 
screwed that up, or helped us out, if he happens to be a wolf.

[Qantaga]

I asked him the same thing and he told me to be patient.

It might be informative to know who *didn't* ask for the other names.

[Unagi]

I got it also.

And, I felt the chances that he was the real Seer was very slim.

Much better chance he was a Villager drawing fire , or in Austin's way of playing it, it would be a wolf trying to look like a Villager drawing fire to the vets, and look like a Seer to those that took that level of thinking.

So, I too was basically waiting to see what happened. I basically hoped that he sent it to a wolf that took the bait and that he wasn't the seer.

There was the chance the message was legit. I was certainly willing to see where it went for a day or so.

But then here is the other thing: I also got another one from him very late last night. (anyone else?)

He sent me one late last night that said he thought he made a terrible mistake. That was the extent of his message. I replied asking for him to elaborate.

I thought that was a very odd thing to send to me. This was well before Newcastle came forward with the PM.

I thought to myself that:
a) Austin's a villager and he got some heated PM from the real seer and had to back off - and now worries he messed things up - but then why send me that message?
b) Austin is the seer and thinks he told a wolf - and he's coming around to telling me more.
c) Austin is a wolf and this is either all part of the plan or it's a hedging moment.
d) something I haven't thought of.

Clearly Austin isn't going to come in and claim it's c).

And, I don't think I want him to tell us if it's A) or B) or D) at this point, but I'm not sure what to make of it.

Now, I also have given thought to if he isn't a wolf, what would the wolves have wanted to do with this.
They all would have got the PM and laughed as they learned they all got it. they wouldn't take a second thought to realize that the PM went to everyone, for the wolves. They would have the 'astronomical evidence' to support it.

What do they do then with Austin? Do they want to let him run with it? Or Do they want him to stop?

[Mr Bubbles]

Austin shouldn't be trusted. Period. I would have liked to see how this played out,but nc took care of that, but that being said austin is not off the hook.

[Unagi]

I sent the same two PMs to everyone. (Even stessier) I have compiled all the responses and will share all the data. I am missing a reply from Remus and RMC to my "Terrible Mistake" message thanks to Newcastle, who incidentally is my #1 suspect presently. But my plan has been to share my data anyway, so no great loss.

oops, I composed and posted before I read this.

[Austin]

I'm here in the room. I posted a brief explanation. I said I sent both messages to everyone. (The Terrible Mistake message also) If you have played with me, I just kind of do stuff and see where it goes. I received some interesting tidbits from my first message so I sent out a second. I was watching for lots of things, including time of response as much as I was able. Do they respond immediately or is there time to consult with the others. (This weighs heavily on Newcastle who read my terrible mistake message and never responded, as did one other but I am leaning seer with him so don't want to drag him out right now)

[Newcastle]

First of all...WHY would you gamble w/ our real seer like that? Seriously? Maybe he is a villager. But on the whole...who does thsi benefit? lets say he gets various responses....it turns into a he said/she said argument....but i come back,...why send a PM claiming seership...what does the real seer do? How does he respond? Kind of screws things up....i think if anything...a wolf sits on that information and lets it be...IF a seer contacts you. Then waits at night to pounce.

But i come back why send a mass mail like that...very brazen and easily fact checked between all...but again i think the move is silly to make as a villager...how would a real seer react to this? But very, very bold move to make if you are a wolf and very nefarious. Since basically you can gauge everyones response and start pecking away at peopel who "flinched".

So yeah...vote stays on Austin.

And why did I blow it up...protection of the seer is the alpha and omega in all wolf games. Didnt want this to go much further and have the seer deal with a considerable more intricate plot that could cause a screw up.

[El Guapo]

I got the "terrible mistake" PM too, Unagi, and per Austin's recent post that refers to his "terrible mistake" message I assume that everyone got that PM too.

Austin, I think you should post at least thoughts on what replies you got. Is there any sort of custom regarding posting PMs received in the main thread?

The only thing (and I'm assuming for purposes of this post that you are not a wolf), obviously you should not post anything that would point towards anyone that you think is the seer. Of course, having posted your general conclusions, what you post could wind up pointing people towards your potential seer. So...not sure what to do about that, other than for god's sake be careful. But generally I favor more information rather than less.

Lastly, if you are a wolf please turn yourself in forthwith and report for summary execution.

[Newcastle]

Uhm, i read your terrible mistake message....saw you voted for me....decided to blow this up.

[Austin]

FWiW, I checked with stess about posting PM's, as I could be lying anyway, and he has no problem with it. Named or un-named, either way. I am not an uber analyst so I think having a bunch of info on Day 1 could be much more valuable than a typical Day 1.

I'm open to suggestions. I played my hand and am not sure what's next. I don't really plan that far ahead.

[triggercut]

I'm here in the room. I posted a brief explanation. I said I sent both messages to everyone. (The Terrible Mistake message also) If you have played with me, I just kind of do stuff and see where it goes. I received some interesting tidbits from my first message so I sent out a second. I was watching for lots of things, including time of response as much as I was able. Do they respond immediately or is there time to consult with the others. (This weighs heavily on Newcastle who read my terrible mistake message and never responded, as did one other but I am leaning seer with him so don't want to drag him out right now)

I did not respond to Austin's second message because:

1. If he was the Seer, of course he made a terrible mistake. That was self-evident from the fact of posting it.

2. I thought about asking him who'd he'd contacted besides me, but decided that it would be garbage data either way and was not interested in the response.

I will now state categorically: I am not the Seer.

[Austin]

Uhm, i read your terrible mistake message....saw you voted for me....decided to blow this up.

You read it last night. You were open to interpret my vote for you as some sort of secret code. . . I included, "for now" or something to that effect for that very reason. Yet you took it as an attack. Why?

[theohall]

Austin's ploy could be used to protect the Seer, as you claim is the alpha and omega. Yes, it could be a ploy by a wolf to find the Seer. Either way it's a gamble. IMO, we should have seen it play out and I don't trust Newcastle's motivations which ignore the prospect the ploy could be used to protect vice hunt and kill.

[Austin]

I am not the Seer.

I never said analysis was my strong point.