Simple Werewolf Game - Game over.

[Lagom Lite]

Newcastle, how do you feel about Moliere?

Scoop, how do you feel about Newcastle?

[Holman]

Thanks for the detailed and well-quoted analyses, Lagom!

I'll review it carefully. One thing that has struck me is that Newcastle has come in for very little suspicion during this game, particularly for someone so vocal. He's been very helpful, but it's still possible that he has been a well-coordinated wolf partner.

[Scoop20906]

Newcastle, how do you feel about Moliere?

Scoop, how do you feel about Newcastle?

Good posts LL. Nice to wake up to this.

I feel I can't read brewcastle. I am reading him about 80% villager 20% wolf but he has fooled me before. Brewcastle is a nice guy and he plays the part well even when he is wolf.

Linking me to tru1cy is an interesting connection but I would VERY much like to see him get tested so if you want to join me that'd be just great. I think he is the silent wolf this game.

I am intrigued by your point on Moliere but if he is a wolf he is one very cool customer because his bandwagon lasted a few days and he was calm and never wavered even when I made my BS accusations. Usually people attack me head on when I do that stuff.

A tru1cy / newcastle team?

[Lagom Lite]

Hm. I guess Moliere would have faked Seer if he were a wolf, during his train.

 withdraw Moliere 
 

[Scoop20906]

Hm. I guess Moliere would have faked Seer if he were a wolf, during his train.

 withdraw Moliere 
 

Wait why would you figure that?

[Lagom Lite]

Hm. I guess Moliere would have faked Seer if he were a wolf, during his train.

 withdraw Moliere 
 

Wait why would you figure that?

Moliere looked quite doomed for a while there. The obvious play would be to claim Seer to draw the Seer out, or even to get away with the claim if purge or Unagi were the Seer.

[Scoop20906]

Hmmm. I see what you are saying. Either way he handled himself well.

I could vote tru1cy or Newcastle? Moliere has gone after Newcastle. I'd rather test tru1cy.

[Newcastle]

Lagom nice posts! You did some serious digging there. I'll go through them in a bit but a couple of things i wanted to comment on. I'll quote and so forth. Just wanted this alone.

[Newcastle]

Hmmm. I see what you are saying. Either way he handled himself well.

I could vote tru1cy or Newcastle? Moliere has gone after Newcastle. I'd rather test tru1cy.

but...but what happened to the 80% scoop???? Did it plummet that fast?

[Scoop20906]

Hmmm. I see what you are saying. Either way he handled himself well.

I could vote tru1cy or Newcastle? Moliere has gone after Newcastle. I'd rather test tru1cy.

but...but what happened to the 80% scoop???? Did it plummet that fast?

I don't trust my opinion on you. You are still at 80%. You aren't my first choice.

[Newcastle]

Hm. I guess Moliere would have faked Seer if he were a wolf, during his train.

 withdraw Moliere 
 

Wait why would you figure that?

Moliere looked quite doomed for a while there. The obvious play would be to claim Seer to draw the Seer out, or even to get away with the claim if purge or Unagi were the Seer.

I thought about it, and that seemed odd to me too. My only conclusion is if he is a wolf, he chose not and was simply hoping it would cool off on its on. I think his was teh first real train that day, and historically there are numerous trains that roll in a day until we settle in on one. My thinking is he was being patient. IF he claimed seer as a wolf, his longevity would be shortened dramatically...after all people would quick vote him down the following day because no wolf in there right mind would let the seer live. If he lets it cool off naturally, it buys him time and good will in game.

[Scoop20906]

It wasn't that Moliere just played cool tho. Playing it cool sometimes means posting less and hoping people forget about you. He kept posting too. He showed no fear of being lynched.

[Newcastle]

Newcastle, how do you feel about Moliere?

Scoop, how do you feel about Newcastle?

I think he's a wolf pure and simple. My thinking has evolved over the course of the game and yeah i was "defending" him some in the first few days because it seemed folks were going after him with not a lot of good reasons. I like to hear concrete reasons when people are lynched. Either a slip of the tongue, voting analysis, hell even a "gut" feel or something. Just voicing a counter opinion isn't good enough for me, since i find myself often in the contrarian's seat myself and get shit for it.

Now having said that my thinking has changed on him. First...ask yourself why wasn't he scooped? You have a "villager" all lined up to go down...why didn't he go down? Was it because all the wolves were already on that train? Or was it because he was a wolf.

The next thing is when he started his charge at me. I dont mind people coming at me, its part of the game. What i do mind, and what makes very interested in people is when they come at me with a very weak case (as I pointed out earlier). That strikes me as someone who's simply trying to throw mud to see if it sticks and if it does..hell there's another lynch train. I've asked him several times to clarify his case, and he's claimed he's laid it out. So there's that.

That last bit really shifted my thinking on him. Anyway...

And scoop - ugh...i dont know what to say. he's an enigma. He's played such a chaotic game its unbelievable. But then again its scoop. That's what he does. Yesterday i was so sure he was evil just from the way he was playing. But i forced myself to reconsider considering lassr died and holman cleared you. Both you and lassr and scoop were my top 3. Really forces you to reevaluate your thinking then. I'm still leaning more likely wolf than not, but for all i know he can be a villager. My surety in him being wolf has gone down today but its not at zero. He can be so hard to read at times because what he does makes him seem so damn wolfy. I'm more hesitant to pull the trigger on scoop today than i am moliere. That answer your question?

[Newcastle]

just went over the posts some...and couple of other things

@lagom

1. the moliere miscalculating vote...obviously i missed something there and i take fully 100% the blame on that. Usually am so careful with that stuff. Not sure how i missed it. Yeah my apologies on that.

2. Why did i think that moliere was hanging at n-1 for a while? You were right it was only about 4 hours or so and then scoop removed the n-1 vote. Hmm...

[Scoop20906]

That's the one good point against Moliere. How did he not get scooped by a wolf? That was my trap and no one bite. Why is that?

All the wolves were already on the bandwagon?
Both wolves weren't paying attention?
Moliere is wolf?
The wolves smelled my trap?

[Moliere]

Lagom nice posts! You did some serious digging there.

Agreed. Though I did have to chuckle at this:

I'd like to lynch  Moliere 
 
as that would tell us a great deal about both Scoop and Newcastle at this point.

Interesting logic to accuse me in order to test the two people that I named as wolves. I agree that it would be unusual to have two such vocal wolves in a game, but both are vocal by nature so it would be out of character if one of them played a quiet game.

[Scoop20906]

More info...

Updated!

Roster

1) vorret
3) Scoop90210
4) Moliere
5) tru1cy
6) Newcastle
7) Holman
8) WarPig
9) Lassr
10) Lagom Lite


VOTES - Majority is 5


Moliere (4)- vorret, Holman, Scoop90210, Lassr,
Vorret (2)- Lagom, Moliere,
Scoop (1) - Newcastle,

No vote cast - tru1cy, WarPig,

(i think this is correct, if i am wrong let me know)

by Lassr » Fri Sep 12, 2014 8:39 pm

 Moliere 
 


Let's see where this goes. There is some info to be gained here.

by Scoop20906 » Sat Sep 13, 2014 12:38 am

 withdraw Moliere 
 

Moliere was literally hanging in the wind for about 3 hours.

Moliere (4)- vorret, Holman, Scoop90210, Lassr,
Vorret (2)- Lagom, Moliere,
Scoop (1) - Newcastle,

No vote cast - tru1cy, WarPig,

Ok, looking at the Moliere 4 I can say without a doubt that no wolves were on that bandwagon (I am human thats why I can say that and I am accepting that Holman is the real deal).

So that means between tru1cy, newcastle, and warpig we have at least one wolf. FO SHO.

Now Im getting suspicious. Why didn't one of them vote to kill Moliere. Well, who had an opportunity?

Newcastle already admitted her had a three hour span to vote for him and didn't. Newcastle even seems excited.

by Newcastle » Fri Sep 12, 2014 8:41 pm
oooh lassr bites...hmmm

Vorret, Lassr, and Moliere all post but neither tru1cy or WarPig did.

Then WarPig post this ...

by WarPig » Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:41 am
I'm half asleep right now but it seems like there's reason to vote  Moliere 
 

This puts Moliere back at N-1!!! Moliere isn't pulled off the ledge until SEVERAL hours later after my fishing expedition post.

by Holman » Mon Sep 15, 2014 11:14 am
Clearing the deck:

 withdraw Moliere 
 

Tru1cy, newcastle, and warpig had A DAY to kill Moliere!! Why didn't they?

I don't know how to read this info. At first blush it makes Moliere look like a wolf and that one of these three was avoiding his bandwagon like the plague. But if not, then what were two of these three doing?

Also, please note, I think tru1cy really wanted my bandwagon to get me killed yesterday. If you remember he specifically asked newcastle to "scoop" if he voted for him but then quickly changed his vote when the Vorret vote felt like it might stall.

Guys, I'm thinking a Moliere / tru1cy wolf combo now. I am giving WarPig a pass but he voted for Moliere and put him back in danger for a LONG time. A WarPig / Tru1cy wolf team is possible but I would have expected tru1cy to follow up on WarPig's vote for Moliere.

Any I am 98% sure Newcastle is a human.

I'm good with testing Moliere or tru1cy now.

[WarPig]

I should put this down. Tomorrow my little girl comes home from the hospital and we'll be dealing with both kids at home for the first time. I think my last big post was pretty clear who smells wolfy to me, and as Scoop mentioned (as hesitant as I am to agree), I don't want to be late to this like I was last time.

 Moliere 
 

[Scoop20906]

Sigh, I'd rather we test tru1cy but if my theory is right the need to test Moliere too.

Vote count?

[Lagom Lite]

Why are you 98% certain Newcastle is human?

[Scoop20906]

If Newcastle is a wolf then we would have a wolf who actively avoided voting for Moliere. He had plenty of opportunities. There was no competing bandwagon. He chose not to scoop Moliere. Why?

Is this a Newcastle / Moliere wolf duo?

Maybe...

OK I'm down to 75% Newcastle is human.

[Lagom Lite]

Lagom nice posts! You did some serious digging there.

Agreed. Though I did have to chuckle at this:

I'd like to lynch  Moliere 
 
as that would tell us a great deal about both Scoop and Newcastle at this point.

Interesting logic to accuse me in order to test the two people that I named as wolves. I agree that it would be unusual to have two such vocal wolves in a game, but both are vocal by nature so it would be out of character if one of them played a quiet game.

If both Newcastle and Scoop are wolves, this tactic has almost no precedence. Which doesn't mean it's impossible.

Scoop does have the audacity for something like this, but I'm not sure it's in Newcastle's nature to be quite so aggressive against a fellow wolf.

I keep thinking Warpig is a wolf. I hope not, for we seem to spare him based on - shall we say - extracurricular activites?

I DO think a wolf tru1cy would concentrate on night-killing veteran players. Which is what has happened.

I DO NOT trust Scoop at all, especially since he's been so consistantly wrong up until now. If Scoop is a wolf, he's been counting on getting lynched and providing cover for his team mate.

[Lagom Lite]

Lynching Moliere would tell us:

If innocent:
Warpig - looks very wolfy with his last minute pile-on
tru1cy - looks very wolfy because his absence explains why Moliere wasn't lynched
Newcastle - looks innocent because he had plenty of opportunity to lynch Moliere
Scoop - looks innocent because he had plenty of opportunity to lynch Moliere

If wolf:
Warpig - looks innocent because Warpig's vote put Moliere back in danger
tru1cy - looks somewhat wolfy because tru1cy avoided the Moliere train
Newcastle - looks wolfy because he tried to divert the Moliere train
Scoop - looks somewhat wolfy because he backed down from the Moliere train

[Lagom Lite]

I think I'm leaning toward lynching tru1cy or Moliere today.

[Holman]

I'm suspicious of Newcastle simply because he has been so clean: no drama, no absences, no sudden moves. It's like he was engineered to look reliable next to this game's Scoop and tru1cy and Warpig. He seems almost *too* villager. Just an impression, of course.

I have a hard time believing that both Newcastle and Scoop are wolves. Newcastle unambiguously swore to scoop Scoop, and he would have had a very hard time backing down from that without looking very suspicious. It's possible, but it would have been an unnecessary risk so early in the game.

I remain suspicious of tru1cy and Moliere. I'm almost ashamed to admit that Scoop has persuaded me of his humanity. Warpig could be a wolf, but he hasn't caught my attention for anything suspicious.

I want to hear other theories, particularly the notes Newcastle has promised, before voting.

[Scoop20906]

So I'm voting tru1cy right now. Do you think I'm wrong about that?

[Lagom Lite]

We should look at the actual Day 2 lynch train (Vorret) before voting. Who was on it, who was not.

Someone else do it though, I've gotta go do some other stuff. It may involve llamas.

[Lagom Lite]

So I'm voting tru1cy right now. Do you think I'm wrong about that?

No, I can't say that I do.

[Scoop20906]

I posted that pages ago. When I get back on a computer I'll post it soon again.

[Holman]

We should look at the actual Day 2 lynch train (Vorret) before voting. Who was on it, who was not.

Someone else do it though, I've gotta go do some other stuff. It may involve llamas.

Tru1cy pulled the switch on Vorret, and he did it in an ostentatiously absent-minded I'm-not-blame way. My reading of that moment in isolation makes it possible to imagine a Tru1cy-Newcastle partnership. However, Newcastle did vote for Tru1cy at one point, doing so right after Scoop. There was a danger of a train developing from that moment, and I don't think a wolf would have risked it.

So, with much less than 100% certainty:
If Scoop is a wolf, Newcastle is not a wolf. Newcastle was ready to scoop Scoop.
if Scoop is a wolf, Moliere is not a wolf. Scoop's fishing expedition came close to killing Moliere.
If tru1cy is a wolf, Newcastle is not a wolf. Newcastle cast a second vote on Tru1cy after Scoop.

Tru1cy has never voted for Moliere despite opportunity, has he?
Moliere has never voted for tru1cy and has seemed unwilling to do so.
(Could Moliere's unwillingness to vote for Purge have been a seed planted to make it easier for a silent wolf Tru1cy to stay silent?)

It's notable that, in LL's analysis above, tru1cy is the only one who looks wolfy whether Moliere is innocent or not.

I may be more inclined to vote tru1cy than Moliere today.

[Newcastle]

I want to hear other theories, particularly the notes Newcastle has promised, before voting.

I'll try to get em after dinner tonight. If not tomorrow AM while I'm watching the EPL. If you cant wait....start on Friday Sept 12th, start looking at Lasr's posts. He makes some very interesting comments on both moliere & scoop. Most likely will be tomorrow AM when i have time during the soccer matches.

[Newcastle]

Lassr's posts i found interesting. Note i am not going to quote all of em from that day, just some i found really interesting in how they applied to both Moliere & Scoop.

: Start here

First posts -

It's probably Scoop and Moliere as the wolves playing the classic combative wolf roles...

Second one -

So no one is with me on the Moliere vote? Really?

So just how confident are you in your vote? You seem very confident.

Another one -

oooh lassr bites...hmmm

Chomp.

I'm curious. Scoop seems so sure, I wonder if he has inside information...and I do not mean seer.

NOTE - AROUND HERE MOLIERE IS AT 4

Another -

I will give my thoughts when I get out of the doctor office

So Scoop says he was fishing for info, he announces it without telling us if he caught anything and then votes tru1cy. A totally divergent path.

I said earlier I was voting for Moliere because I thought it was extremely weird that Scoop felt so confident in his guilt with what little we had to go on. At the time I thought Scoop could be a wolf pointing at his partner to build street cred. I was willing to vote Moliere and get him lynched to see if he was a wolf or not. If he was I would have looked really hard at Scoop.

So why not just vote Scoop, because he had no votes on him and I felt my vote would have just been wasted.

SO now he says he was fishing and I am sitting here in the stands waiting for the weigh in to see what he caught...if anything.

After this he goes after scoop. He drops a vote on Scoop.

Oh, and I guess I should underline the point.

 Scoop 
 

I am there with you on his wackiness but the problem is I have seen this exact wackiness from him as a good guy. That is why he always seems evil to me, he goes off on these tangents that seem to lead nowhere and it often sows confusion but sometimes it's not as a wolf.

Lassr talks about pairings.

Anyone else gonna drop a list? So we can see what folks are thinking?

I have no list right now. I'm mulling over suspects for a quiet wolf and a helpful wolf. Previously I was thinking about an aggressive wolf and defensive wolf (Scoop and Moliere).

I don't feel comfortable enough to make any hard accusations right now as I really have not moved anyone to the most likely human category yet.

A write up from me to follow...will take a few.

[Newcastle]

So when i just reread these they werent as damning as i first thought, but i still think they are significant. I think it shows that both Moliere & Scoop were heavy on Lassr's thoughts.

I think it was his open thought process about pairings that got him in trouble. Lassr very openly kicked the idea around that scoop & moliere could be playing a very vocal duo of wolves. Something that is not unheard of mind you. That was the big takeaway for me.

He finally dropped a vote on Scoop and stayed there.

Now another thing - when I asked why about the death of Lassr, Moliere came up with this....

And why doesn't it surprise you that lassr is knocked off?

Because he was never a primary wolf suspect. It makes sense for the wolves to keep alive all of those that have been heavily suspected of being wolves. That way the villagers can be easily outraged against them the next day.

While that is very true it doesn't seem like no one was going after him...the KEY part i think is who HE was going after. Its not that he was innocent it was his intent that i think got him to be a night time snack. Moliere's quick reasoning and rationalizing didn't sit right with me actually, just because he wasn't a suspect? Didn't seem like a good enough reason for me.

[Newcastle]

Now Scoop - because Lassr was just as interested in him. Like Lassr, i have the hardest time reading Scoop he just does the damndest thing and its both brilliant at times, but also fill of bufoonery on the other (normal villager claiming seer shtick). Its a spinning top and you dont know which way it lands. He's played a very chaotic game this time, and if it were seer it would be brilliant, but since he's not...it serves as very big distraction that prevents a clean reading of the game, for me at least. I mean why say some of those things...and then you come back to "it's scoop". So the big question is "is he hiding evill in his intent? or is he just having fun with it as a good guy scoop?". In terms of this i find myself slightly agreeing with Holman...SLIGHTLY. I mean what he said yesterday was just the damndest thing, but he's recovered enoguh today in mind to toss that back in doubt (his tone more than anything sounds sincere). And i dont like this level of unsureness in people just makes the reading of the game so much harder. So ugh.

But even having said that I think there is a chance that we have two very vocal wolves. I think Scoop would be ballsey enough to hang a target on his partner like that. His removing it three hours from the n-1 is certainly interesting.

See what it is with Scoop? Even in this write up, which usually clarifies things for me, i waffle back and forth on him. Evidence of good, evidence of bad....UGH.

[Newcastle]

I'm suspicious of Newcastle simply because he has been so clean: no drama, no absences, no sudden moves. It's like he was engineered to look reliable next to this game's Scoop and tru1cy and Warpig. He seems almost *too* villager. Just an impression, of course.

I have a hard time believing that both Newcastle and Scoop are wolves. Newcastle unambiguously swore to scoop Scoop, and he would have had a very hard time backing down from that without looking very suspicious. It's possible, but it would have been an unnecessary risk so early in the game.

Just a villager.... guess it comes through. But it's healthy to be suspicious of everyone. So I invite folks to look at me just as carefully as everyone else.

And yes i would have scooped scoop yesterday. Wasn't on hte phone, but i was prone to....i probably would have given him a "last chance" to say something, but i would have voted down Scoop yesterday without a problem.

[Newcastle]

We should look at the actual Day 2 lynch train (Vorret) before voting. Who was on it, who was not.

Someone else do it though, I've gotta go do some other stuff. It may involve llamas.

Looking through it formed something like this -

VOTE #1

I agree 100% with you on that, that's why I'm saying a wolf would want us NOT to lynch him and instead get us to lynch another villager, buying them an extra day.

OTOH if we didn't lynch purge, we might have lynched a wolf. I don't think the wolves were reluctant to lynch purge at all.

I'm going on my hunch on this, I don't see any advantage to not lynch Purge on D1 and he was very vocal about not doing it...

 Moliere 
 

Your reasoning is off. While Moliere could very well be a wolf offering counterpoint to the purge lynch, I'm more interested in why you're diverting attention from last day's vote train.

 withdraw Lassr 
 


 Vorret 
 

VOTE #2

the vote train was agree on by everyone except Moliere.

You keep making statements that are untrue and misleading. Three others didn't vote for Purge:
tru1cy
WarPig
Lagom Lite

 Vorret 
 

#3

Lol. Funny you say that because you were my vote:

 accuse Vorret 
 

I have a history of wolves trying to get on my good side and then slipping the knife between my ribs at the end. I feel like you are trying to play that role. Add that to your vote for Moliere and I think I have a winner.

Who wants to help me see if right?

#4

Strangely enough, I find myself agreeing with Scoop regarding Vorret. Kind of fishy.
 withdraw Moliere 
 


 Vorret 
 

#5

 vorret 
 
I'm fickle

[Newcastle]

ya know...have we been giving warpig too much of a pass this game? kind of strange his come from nowhere vote.

Also w/ truicy his vote switching at the end is kind of odd...then asking me for a vote drop on vorret. Hmm but between there...warpig drops the vote on Vorret...truicy goes from scoop to vorret.

odd, odd, odd.

Ya know that little switcheroo there has got me very interested in truicy now.

[Newcastle]

Vorret revisisted

1) vorret
3) Scoop90210
4) Moliere
5) tru1cy
6) Newcastle
7) Holman
8) WarPig
9) Lassr
10) Lagom Lite


VOTES - Majority is 5


Vorret (5)- Lagom, Moliere, Scoop90210, WarPig, tru1cy,
Scoop (3) - Holman, Lassr, vorret,

No vote cast - Newcastle,

[Holman]

We have to test one of them.

I propose we go with  Tru1cy 
 

[Newcastle]

We have to test one of them.

I propose we go with  Tru1cy 
 

I think i can go with that. I prefer Moliere, but I can also get behind a truicy vote.