Justice League Loses... VILLAINS WIN

[RMC]

Well lynch me today, and then you have can choose between Grund or Stress for the next day.

The guy came out and asked to be killed. He picked a role knowing it was a role we would want to remove to prevent a possible conversion if we missed on stessier.

My problem is if RMC knew about Grund and his role would have taken the same route. He could have picked another super hero other than Elongated Man.

What is the logic in spoofing Red Rocket when he had others to choose from and his death means the end of the game.

Yeah, I wish you had lynched me yesterday like I asked. But since you didn't we need to kill Grund, as the last member of team evil is me or him. I know it is not me, so it must be him.

Grund did a great job, I didn't want to reveal, but was basically told I had too, then Grund comes out with all of his 'bread crumbs'.

I wish I could build a better case for myself, but I stayed on the down low. Maybe not the best play, but as Red Rocket, I really wasn't sure what my play was, honestly.

 Grundbegriff 
 

[Grundbegriff]

The villain is  RMC 
 


I don't know why he made his play. Perhaps he'll explain himself after the game.

If you kill me, the villains win. If you kill RMC, we win. It's as simple as that, now.

[Scoop20906]

The villain is  RMC 
 


I don't know why he made his play. Perhaps he'll explain himself after the game.

If you kill me, the villains win. If you kill RMC, we win. It's as simple as that, now.

Come on, Grund. You can do better than that. Why do you think RMC chose to claim Red Rocket?

[Grundbegriff]

The villain is  RMC 
 

I don't know why he made his play. Perhaps he'll explain himself after the game.
If you kill me, the villains win. If you kill RMC, we win. It's as simple as that, now.

Come on, Grund. You can do better than that. Why do you think RMC chose to claim Red Rocket?

It's a good question. As I mentioned here, it was a strange play for a bad guy. I don't know that I would've done it, but I can't argue with its effectiveness!

The question, then, is what your theory is about my play. To believe I'm the villain, you have to believe that at the beginning of the game, I picked Elongated Man from the list of unprovable roles and decided to leave breadcrumbs all through the game just in case we reached a point where (a) all special Hero roles were claimed, and (b) nobody had really been assigned Elongated Man.

I'd love to say that this is so implausible it couldn't have happened, and that therefore you have to trust me. The problem is that that is indeed the sort of thing that I might do. So I'm in the strange position of being actually innocent but unable to prove it, while facing an actually guilty foe whose move makes him seem, on balance, sort of good.

What can I say? Werewolf is weird, and I'm Elongated Man.

[Grundbegriff]

Yeah, I wish you had lynched me yesterday like I asked. But since you didn't we need to kill Grund, as the last member of team evil is me or him. I know it is not me, so it must be him.

Wait--what?

If you're claiming I'm evil and you're good, then why do you wish we had lynched you yesterday like you asked?

[Scoop20906]

The villain is  RMC 
 

I don't know why he made his play. Perhaps he'll explain himself after the game.
If you kill me, the villains win. If you kill RMC, we win. It's as simple as that, now.

Come on, Grund. You can do better than that. Why do you think RMC chose to claim Red Rocket?

It's a good question. As I mentioned here, it was a strange play for a bad guy. I don't know that I would've done it, but I can't argue with its effectiveness!

The question, then, is what your theory is about my play. To believe I'm the villain, you have to believe that at the beginning of the game, I picked Elongated Man from the list of unprovable roles and decided to leave breadcrumbs all through the game just in case we reached a point where (a) all special Hero roles were claimed, and (b) nobody had really been assigned Elongated Man.

I'd love to say that this is so implausible it couldn't have happened, and that therefore you have to trust me. The problem is that that is indeed the sort of thing that I might do. So I'm in the strange position of being actually innocent but unable to prove it, while facing an actually guilty foe whose move makes him seem, on balance, sort of good.

What can I say? Werewolf is weird, and I'm Elongated Man.

The only way his play makes any sense is if he knew there was a 4th hero and that that 4th hero would come out.

Lets put it this way. What if you had stayed silent (which you could have done)? We would have killed RMC to prevent a possible conversion and to test if he was the final bad guy. That is a ballsy gamble. I'm not sure who would have done it. RMC? Yes, he is crafty enough to do something like this. So are you, Grund. But it is really low percentage that its possible.

[Scoop20906]

Yeah, I wish you had lynched me yesterday like I asked. But since you didn't we need to kill Grund, as the last member of team evil is me or him. I know it is not me, so it must be him.

Wait--what?

If you're claiming I'm evil and you're good, then why do you wish we had lynched you yesterday like you asked?

Thats the first thing he asked us to do. He knew that both Stessier and himself could be heros. He knew once he announced himself he could be converted. Your announcement cleared bb2112, el guapo, and remus. At that time all three and you were still considered possible villains.

[Scoop20906]

If we had let RMC live and then missed on one of Grund, Remus, El Guapo, bb2112 then there would have been two villains left instead of one.

[Grundbegriff]

Thats the first thing he asked us to do. He knew that both Stessier and himself could be heros. He knew once he announced himself he could be converted. Your announcement cleared bb2112, el guapo, and remus. At that time all three and you were still considered possible villains.

Right; it made sense then. But he's saying that now-- after a night with no conversion. If he knows himself to be a hero, why would he now wish we had offed him first? Conversion is no longer a risk.

Doesn't change the task ahead; it's just a weird thing to say. I should think he'd be saying "Evil Grund didn't convert me, so we're home free!" rather than lamenting his continued existence on the final turn, when it's known that death order made no difference.

[RMC]

Thats the first thing he asked us to do. He knew that both Stessier and himself could be heros. He knew once he announced himself he could be converted. Your announcement cleared bb2112, el guapo, and remus. At that time all three and you were still considered possible villains.

Right; it made sense then. But he's saying that now-- after a night with no conversion. If he knows himself to be a hero, why would he now wish we had offed him first? Conversion is no longer a risk.

Doesn't change the task ahead; it's just a weird thing to say. I should think he'd be saying "Evil Grund didn't convert me, so we're home free!" rather than lamenting his continued existence on the final turn, when it's known that death order made no difference.

Well mostly because then it would have been down to you and someone else, instead of me and you. I am horrible about convincing people that I am not the bad guy. I actually make a pretty good fall guy.

[Scoop20906]

Thats the first thing he asked us to do. He knew that both Stessier and himself could be heros. He knew once he announced himself he could be converted. Your announcement cleared bb2112, el guapo, and remus. At that time all three and you were still considered possible villains.

Right; it made sense then. But he's saying that now-- after a night with no conversion. If he knows himself to be a hero, why would he now wish we had offed him first? Conversion is no longer a risk.

Doesn't change the task ahead; it's just a weird thing to say. I should think he'd be saying "Evil Grund didn't convert me, so we're home free!" rather than lamenting his continued existence on the final turn, when it's known that death order made no difference.

I already game planned out that once you announced your role and stessier was killed, the villain (you) couldn't win. If you are the final villain you had to kill either Remus or El Guapo or me.

Since you already have stated I'm a bonus to evil, you may have went with Remus. No idea why you would have passed on El Guapo.

[Scoop20906]

If RMC is Red Rocket, the final villain (Grund) could have attacked/converted him last night. That would have led to:

El Guapo
Scoop20906
Remus West
RMC
Grundbegriff

HHHVV
Day -1 V
Night -1 H
Day 2 -1 V - Game over

Conclusion - Evil could not win this way.

-------
If Grund is Elongated Man, the final villain (RMC) would not have attacked Grund as this would been a miss which would have lead to:

El Guapo
Scoop20906
Remus West
RMC
Grundbegriff

H H H PV PV
Day -1 PV
Night -1 H
Day 2 -1 PV - Game over

-------
Instead today we have ...

El Guapo
Scoop20906
RMC
Grundbegriff

H H PV PV
Day -1 PV
Night -1 H - Game Over
If we miss today it is game over.

[Grundbegriff]

Well mostly because then it would have been down to you and someone else, instead of me and you. I am horrible about convincing people that I am not the bad guy.

To the contrary, you seem to be excellent at it! I suspect you didn't anticipate this outcome when you made your strange move, but you've certainly made the most of it!

[Grundbegriff]

I already game planned out that once you announced your role and stessier was killed, the villain (you) couldn't win. If you are the final villain you had to kill either Remus or El Guapo or me.

Since you already have stated I'm a bonus to evil, you may have went with Remus. No idea why you would have passed on El Guapo.

The question answers itself: I wouldn't have made a mistake. Remember: I had the option of staying silent.

[Scoop20906]

I already game planned out that once you announced your role and stessier was killed, the villain (you) couldn't win. If you are the final villain you had to kill either Remus or El Guapo or me.

Since you already have stated I'm a bonus to evil, you may have went with Remus. No idea why you would have passed on El Guapo.

The question answers itself: I wouldn't have made a mistake. Remember: I had the option of staying silent.

And that is what is most confusing about this whole damn thing.

Both of you made interesting plays if you are villains.

RMC would have been killed if you hadn't announced yourself. I can guarantee that. Could RMC fortell that? I don't know.

By announcing yourself, you cleared three other players when it would have seemed more wise to keep quiet.

Let me gameplan this out a bit:

Scoop20906 - Captain Marvel
bb2112 - Unknown
El Guapo - Unknown
Remus West - Unknown
Grundbegriff - Unknown
Stessier - Potential Green Lantern
RMC - Potential Red Rocket

Day Kill - RMC

Scoop20906 - Proven Captain Marvel
bb2112 - Unknown
El Guapo - Unknown
Remus West - Unknown
Grundbegriff - Unknown
Stessier - Potential Green Lantern
RMC - Proven Red Rocket

Night Kill - Scoop20906

Scoop20906 - Hero
bb2112 - Unknown
El Guapo - Unknown
Remus West - Unknown
Grundbegriff - Unknown
Stessier - Potential Green Lantern
RMC - Proven Red Rocket

Day Kill - Remus West

Scoop20906 - Proven Captain Marvel
bb2112 - Unknown
El Guapo - Unknown
Remus West - Unknown
Grundbegriff - Unknown
Stessier - Potential Green Lantern
RMC - Proven Red Rocket

Night Kill - bb2112

Scoop20906 - Proven Captain Marvel
bb2112 - Unknown
El Guapo - Unknown
Remus West - Unknown
Grundbegriff - Unknown
Stessier - Potential Green Lantern
RMC - Proven Red Rocket

Day Kill - El Guapo

Scoop20906 - Proven Captain Marvel
bb2112 - Unknown
El Guapo - Unknown
Remus West - Unknown
Grundbegriff - Unknown
Stessier - Potential Green Lantern
RMC - Proven Red Rocket

-------

Final Villains Win.

Scoop20906 - Proven Captain Marvel
bb2112 - Unknown
El Guapo - Unknown
Remus West - Unknown
Grundbegriff - Unknown
Stessier - Potential Green Lantern
RMC - Proven Red Rocket

[Scoop20906]

Staying Silent Villan Grund could have won as well however Grund would have had to survived three days kills.

In our scenario Grund only needed to survive two day kills. Grund is smart enough to figure this out and take the two day kill option.

I've heard enough from RMC and Grund. Thank you both for your input.

El Guapo, I'm leaning towards Grund being the final baddie and also being Brainiac. Need your input, please.

[Scoop20906]

El Guapo?

[El Guapo]

El Guapo?

Sorry, I haven't paid much attention to the forum games the past day and a half since I was sick. On the plus side, I re-watched the original Star Wars trilogy. On the minus side, I had a fever dream about this game the other night, so...thanks to everyone for that.

Anyway, catching up on the latest now.

[El Guapo]

Note that this is NOT true for a villain Grund, since he waited until after RMC came out - because all the hero spots are filled at that point, he can pick any non-provable role that he wants without fear of being countered.

Breadcrumbs, starting early in the game (on Day One, in fact), all relating to Elongated Man.

ehhh, I'm not inclined to give breadcrumbs like that much weight, since it seems fairly common for wolves to do that to prepare contingency plans for later in the game. Plus as breadcrumbs go using long / short a handful of times over a 27 thread game isn't super convincing.

[Grundbegriff]

I'm not going to argue with you over it. I'm Elongated Man. Win the game or lose it; I've told you how.

[El Guapo]

I'm not going to argue with you over it. I'm Elongated Man. Win the game or lose it; I've told you how.

A compelling explanation.

[El Guapo]

El Guapo, I'm leaning towards Grund being the final baddie and also being Brainiac. Need your input, please.

Why Brainiac? When Grund made his announcement he already knew that we were at our hero cap, so I'm not sure how Brainiac's powers would change the analysis.

Unless you're arguing that because he knew (before RMC's announcement) that there was a fourth hero out there, that's why he waited for a long time on day 3 to make his announcement?

[El Guapo]

RMC would have been killed if you hadn't announced yourself. I can guarantee that. Could RMC fortell that? I don't know.

How are you so sure about that? I floated RMC as a lynch choice early on day 3 (mostly due to lingering without seeming to help much), but I don't know that I had seen much heat on him before his announcement.

[El Guapo]

Ok, so let's think this through at length, in a long way, looking at the choices our potential villains faced on the relatively short-ish day 3:

Scenario 1: RMC is a villain (specific role unknown); Grund is Elonggated Man.

At this point we are at 2 proven heroes (Scoop as Marvel, Isgrimnur as Dr. Fate). RMC knows that stessier is telling the truth about being Green Lantern. He knows that the village is at its minimum hero amount, but (unless he is Brainiac, or unless he's Lex and scanned Grund) only knows that there may or may not be another hero out there. Unless he's Lex (and scanned Grund), he has no way of knowing what that heros specific role would be.

He is facing village pressure for all heroes to reveal themselves. He has the option of saying that he's a normal (short on super powers) or of claiming a currently unclaimed role. He knows from Riddler's power that RevHempus was not a special. Unless he is Lex and has scanned Grund, he knows that there is a risk that any claim would be contested. Of course, because there are so many potential roles in this game, and only one potential hero left, the odds of his choice being contested are not great, but it's still a risk, and if he gets unlucky in his choice, then he is absolutely dead in the water, and would be short of a life raft.

Now let's suppose that RMC is Lex, and HAS scanned Grund, or that he's Brainiac and knows for sure that there is another hero out there. If he's Lex and has scanned Grund he doesn't need to worry about accidentally claiming a hero role that's in the game (and thereby get contested). However, if he's Lex or Brainiac he knows for sure that claiming a hero role would put us above the cap, and that Grund would presumably come forward and inform the village of that.

A villain RMC on day 3 only needs to extend the game by getting two more misses in order to win, right? Given that myself and stessier (and Grund, somewhat) were drawing a fair amount of suspicion, it seems like it would have made more sense for him to claim to be a non-special. Of course there's always the "land war in Asia" / stupid like a fox dynamic that commends picking a crazy move because it's so crazy that who would make that move, right?

I'll have to think about this some more at length.

Long long.

[Scoop20906]

El Guapo, I'm leaning towards Grund being the final baddie and also being Brainiac. Need your input, please.

Why Brainiac? When Grund made his announcement he already knew that we were at our hero cap, so I'm not sure how Brainiac's powers would change the analysis.

Unless you're arguing that because he knew (before RMC's announcement) that there was a fourth hero out there, that's why he waited for a long time on day 3 to make his announcement?

Yes, my theory is he knew to wait and not announce himself. Being Brainiac allows him to do that. If he had announced first and we were at our cap then Im not sure what RMC would have done. But the idea that he was setting a trap seems convenient.

[Scoop20906]

RMC would have been killed if you hadn't announced yourself. I can guarantee that. Could RMC fortell that? I don't know.

How are you so sure about that? I floated RMC as a lynch choice early on day 3 (mostly due to lingering without seeming to help much), but I don't know that I had seen much heat on him before his announcement.

I feel 99% confident that was the way were going to vote. With RMC as a potential conversion, if we had missed on stessier or any of the unknowns were would have been in a far worse situation.

Other than stessier I think we had no leads on a potential baddie. Grund helped clarify the situation and clear everyone but that announcement led to our current situation.

[Scoop20906]

Ok, so let's think this through at length, in a long way, looking at the choices our potential villains faced on the relatively short-ish day 3:

Scenario 1: RMC is a villain (specific role unknown); Grund is Elonggated Man.

At this point we are at 2 proven heroes (Scoop as Marvel, Isgrimnur as Dr. Fate). RMC knows that stessier is telling the truth about being Green Lantern. He knows that the village is at its minimum hero amount, but (unless he is Brainiac, or unless he's Lex and scanned Grund) only knows that there may or may not be another hero out there. Unless he's Lex (and scanned Grund), he has no way of knowing what that heros specific role would be.

He is facing village pressure for all heroes to reveal themselves. He has the option of saying that he's a normal (short on super powers) or of claiming a currently unclaimed role. He knows from Riddler's power that RevHempus was not a special. Unless he is Lex and has scanned Grund, he knows that there is a risk that any claim would be contested. Of course, because there are so many potential roles in this game, and only one potential hero left, the odds of his choice being contested are not great, but it's still a risk, and if he gets unlucky in his choice, then he is absolutely dead in the water, and would be short of a life raft.

Now let's suppose that RMC is Lex, and HAS scanned Grund, or that he's Brainiac and knows for sure that there is another hero out there. If he's Lex and has scanned Grund he doesn't need to worry about accidentally claiming a hero role that's in the game (and thereby get contested). However, if he's Lex or Brainiac he knows for sure that claiming a hero role would put us above the cap, and that Grund would presumably come forward and inform the village of that.

A villain RMC on day 3 only needs to extend the game by getting two more misses in order to win, right? Given that myself and stessier (and Grund, somewhat) were drawing a fair amount of suspicion, it seems like it would have made more sense for him to claim to be a non-special. Of course there's always the "land war in Asia" / stupid like a fox dynamic that commends picking a crazy move because it's so crazy that who would make that move, right?

I'll have to think about this some more at length.

Long long.

A yet he claims a super hero who is converted when attacked and request we lynch him. Ballsy for a villain.

[El Guapo]

RMC would have been killed if you hadn't announced yourself. I can guarantee that. Could RMC fortell that? I don't know.

How are you so sure about that? I floated RMC as a lynch choice early on day 3 (mostly due to lingering without seeming to help much), but I don't know that I had seen much heat on him before his announcement.

I feel 99% confident that was the way were going to vote. With RMC as a potential conversion, if we had missed on stessier or any of the unknowns were would have been in a far worse situation.

Other than stessier I think we had no leads on a potential baddie. Grund helped clarify the situation and clear everyone but that announcement led to our current situation.

That's interesting, because I didn't see RMC as being under all that much heat. If *he* thought that he had a 99% chance of being lynched on day 3, then it would make seemingly crazy moves more rational for him, which would make spoofing Red Rocket more rational (more of a semi-hail mary under fire).

But I would've ranked RMC as maybe the third most likely lynch choice going into day 3 (though admittedly one I would have supported).

[Scoop20906]

I have to say this has been the most interesting final day vote I have been involved in. Kudos to the final villain.

[El Guapo]

A yet he claims a super hero who is converted when attacked and request we lynch him. Ballsy for a villain.

The thinking, from a villainous RMC's perspective, would have to be that it would seem so crazy as to make him look innocent.

This afternoon I'm going to game this out for a bit from a villain Grund's perspective. Then it probably makes sense to take a run through at old RMC / Grund posts (fortunately, I don't think there are all that many of them).

Then make a final decision and vote, I suppose.

[Scoop20906]

A yet he claims a super hero who is converted when attacked and request we lynch him. Ballsy for a villain.

The thinking, from a villainous RMC's perspective, would have to be that it would seem so crazy as to make him look innocent.

This afternoon I'm going to game this out for a bit from a villain Grund's perspective. Then it probably makes sense to take a run through at old RMC / Grund posts (fortunately, I don't think there are all that many of them).

Then make a final decision and vote, I suppose.

Thanks, I really need to hear your perspective.

[El Guapo]

Yeah, I wish you had lynched me yesterday like I asked. But since you didn't we need to kill Grund, as the last member of team evil is me or him. I know it is not me, so it must be him.

Wait--what?

If you're claiming I'm evil and you're good, then why do you wish we had lynched you yesterday like you asked?

Thats the first thing he asked us to do. He knew that both Stessier and himself could be heros. He knew once he announced himself he could be converted. Your announcement cleared bb2112, el guapo, and remus. At that time all three and you were still considered possible villains.

One correction: bb2112 was already dead at the start of day 3, so Grund's announcement did not clear bb2112. It did effectively clear me and Remus.

[El Guapo]

Grund as the villain, Day 3

As with villain RMC scenario, at the start of the day villain Grund knows at a minimum stessier is telling the truth and that the village is at its minimum hero threshold of three. If he's Brainiac he knows that there is one more hero out there, but even if he's not he at least knows that there is a potential hero out there. He knows that any spoofing may draw fire to him because another hero is potentially lurking (definitely will if he's Brainiac). Also at the start of Day 3 Grund is a potential lynch candidate, having drawn some heat (though not IIRC that many votes) on day 2.

Thinking about it some more, I'm not as certain as Scoop as to who the likely day 3 lynch would have been had no one claimed the fourth hero spot, but probably it would be stessier, RMC, and Grund in some order, followed by me, then probably Remus.

It would be risky for villainous Grund to spoof a claim prior to RMC's announcement due to the hero cap limit (plus the possibility of accidentally claiming a role that's in the game), similar to the RMC analysis above.

Once RMC makes his claim, a villainous Grund could, however, then spoof with impunity since the hero cap had been reached.

What does trouble me about concluding that Grund is the villain, is the idea of him choosing the spoof over claiming to be unpowered, because the spoof put him more in the crosshairs here. If Grund doesn't spoof, *probably* RMC is the lynch choice(outside chance of stessier, and a small chance of the field). Then Grund kills (probably) Remus, and has to survive a showdown with stessier (whom Scoop had a track record of believing to be evil), and myself.

Though I suppose I could see Grund losing that showdown. I think Scoop would have voted for Grund over me since (notwithstanding Remus' odd accusation) my track record over the first two days was much better. I might well have voted Grund over stessier in that scenario (largely the same reason).

Villain Grund could also have chosen to kill Scoop night 3, in the hopes of lynching me day 4 (since Remus seemed fixated on me). But as above stessier probably votes for Grund over me. Grund could also try to lynch Remus day 4, which could plausibly have worked - stessier expressed some suspicion of Remus (though it was admittedly somewhat generic), and I might have been talked into it in part due to Remus' odd suspicion of me. Though not a sure thing.

Also FWIW to the extent that Grund was considering spoofing, RMC's announcement would have made it now-or-never, since any spoofing after that point would have been additionally suspicious (like if he spoofed day 4, the question would've been why didn't he come forward sooner).

The key question regarding the competing RMC / Grund claims is in significant part which is more credible: that RMC would come forward and spoof Red Rocket, or that Grund would spoof an unclaimed role following RMC's announcement. Thinking this through the latter seems more likely. While the spoofing narrowed the crosshairs somewhat, the people it cleared (me and Remus) were I think second-tier suspects, so it might have been reasonable for Grund to conclude that he had a better chance of surviving day 4 via the spoofing route than the lay low route.

[El Guapo]

Scoop I hope you can follow my thinking things through ramblings here. If not feel free to ask me questions.

Also one possible "lay low" plan available to villain Grund before spoofing would be to kill me night 3, then try to get Scoop and Remus to lynch stessier on day 4. Scoop might well have gone for stessier over Grund in that scenario. Remus seems like more of a risk there (I'm trying to remember his expressed thoughts on stessier). But I would think there's a significant risk that Scoop and Remus balk at making someone with an uncontested hero claim the final lynch.

[Grundbegriff]

The key question regarding the competing RMC / Grund claims is in significant part which is more credible: that RMC would come forward and spoof Red Rocket, or that Grund would spoof an unclaimed role following RMC's announcement. Thinking this through the latter seems more likely.

I agree with this analysis. It's more probable, on externals, that I'm faking and that RMC's sincere. The funny thing is that I'm not and he's not.

[Scoop20906]

Thanks for all that analysis El Guapo. We might have to handle this like Iowa and flip a coin. I'm truly stumped.

[El Guapo]

Thanks for all that analysis El Guapo. We might have to handle this like Iowa and flip a coin. I'm truly stumped.

Ooh, I'm in DC until Thursday. You're in Alexandria - let's caucus!

[Scoop20906]

Thanks for all that analysis El Guapo. We might have to handle this like Iowa and flip a coin. I'm truly stumped.

Ooh, I'm in DC until Thursday. You're in Alexandria - let's caucus!

If we'd have the Star Wars Rebellion game I'd challenge you to a galactic conflict!!

[Scoop20906]

Ok, its 50/50...

Lets go with  RMC 
 

[El Guapo]

Ok, its 50/50...

Lets go with  RMC 
 

Bah. Deciding the outcome based on a coin flip is what Wuss Man would do.

Looking through old posts now...