Justice League Loses... VILLAINS WIN

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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by Scoop20906 »

El Guapo wrote:Scoop - I'd like to hear your thoughts on my post analysis. For what it's worth, based on day 1 and day 2 posts alone, I would vote for RMC. Though as noted there's not a TON of posts to go on.

But that runs into the Occam's razor that the guy claiming Red Rocket and inviting to be lynched is probably not the final villain.
Good analysis but not really much to mine from. We got lucky in that we were given two evil scans without much analysis from Issy on why he chose them. Neither Vorret or Moliere had much interaction with Grund or RMC. Grund was his normal day one/two quiet and RMC had his reasons even if he was Red Rocket.

And thats the thing. Red Rocket and Elongated Man are two heros who are perfect hiding spots for an villain. Both have built in reasons for why they would stay silent. I didn't care much for Grund's "breadcrumbs" or his trap statement but they do fit a plausible pattern. RMC was masterful in the way he announced his role if he is faking. If he is not faking he came out at the right time as well.

Really? I got no clue but I do know this. RMC can play the innocent villager role very well. That why I eventually choose to vote for him.
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by El Guapo »

Scoop20906 wrote:
El Guapo wrote:Scoop - I'd like to hear your thoughts on my post analysis. For what it's worth, based on day 1 and day 2 posts alone, I would vote for RMC. Though as noted there's not a TON of posts to go on.

But that runs into the Occam's razor that the guy claiming Red Rocket and inviting to be lynched is probably not the final villain.
Good analysis but not really much to mine from. We got lucky in that we were given two evil scans without much analysis from Issy on why he chose them. Neither Vorret or Moliere had much interaction with Grund or RMC. Grund was his normal day one/two quiet and RMC had his reasons even if he was Red Rocket.

And thats the thing. Red Rocket and Elongated Man are two heros who are perfect hiding spots for an villain. Both have built in reasons for why they would stay silent. I didn't care much for Grund's "breadcrumbs" or his trap statement but they do fit a plausible pattern. RMC was masterful in the way he announced his role if he is faking. If he is not faking he came out at the right time as well.

Really? I got no clue but I do know this. RMC can play the innocent villager role very well. That why I eventually choose to vote for him.
Yeah, that sums it up pretty well - they're both plausible villain candidates, they were both silent day 1 and day 2 (incidentally, the innocent party here could have helped themselves considerably by opening their yapper), they both claim roles that make a profile more explicable, etc. etc.

In terms of actually making a decision between the two of them, I think we just have to play the odds. RMC coming out as Red Rocket under minimal duress and when he could have claimed silent is crazy. Could be crazy as a fox of course, but just on an odds / Occam's razor basis, you have to figure that he's *probably* not faking. By contrast Grund spoofing when he did is much more logical and understandable - it makes much more sense than RMC's alleged spoof play.

And honestly, your reasons for voting RMC don't make a ton of sense. RMC "can" play the innocent villager role - I'm sure that's true, but he also "can" actually be an innocent villager, so that doesn't seem like much of a tool for rooting out whether he's innocent in this case. You also said that you're usually wrong, but then presumably that would also apply to you being wrong about things, which means that you should go with what you originally thought, so...

 Grundbegriff 
 


May God have mercy on our souls. I'm probably mostly done eating the planet anyway.

Anyhow Scoop, I'm going to be in a training for most of the morning. You can either complete your Scooping destiny here, or alternatively make the case for me to vote RMC - I am a reasonable planet-eating entity (what exactly is Galactus, anyway - an animal? A mythical creature? Regardless).
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by Grundbegriff »

Do that, and we lose the game.
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by El Guapo »

Oh, and by the way, if we get this wrong (really even if we get this right), what I'll really be kicking myself for is letting myself get talked into voting stessier. That just made no damn sense - yes stessier's proven value was limited on account of Sinestro telling the villains that GL was / was not in the game, but he had a solid (IMO) day 1 and day 2 record. Grund / Run RMC in some order would have made a much more logical day 3 and 4 lynch set.

But what can you do.
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by Grundbegriff »

The stessier vote happened precisely because it's so hard to make sense of RMC's play. Some manipulation by stessier seemed more plausible, so we went with the odds. We made the "logical" move.

We were wrong.

Same deal here. Weird stuff happens, Ockham notwithstanding.
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by El Guapo »

Grundbegriff wrote:Do that, and we lose the game.
I mean, I understand that we lose the game if we miss today, which is not particularly helpful in assessing the culpable party here.

FWIW I would say there's like a 60% - 70% chance that Grund is the villain and a 30% - 40% chance that it's RMC. There's a sizeable error risk here, but as you yourself say the externals suggest that you're faking, so I'm not sure what else it makes sense to do ultimately than to play the odds.
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by Grundbegriff »

To put it differently: Donald Ephing Trump is a viable presidential candidate right now-- you are not inhabiting a perfect world, much less a perfect fictional world-within-a-world.

You can end this right now, in victory for yourself and those you love, just by changing your vote.
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by Grundbegriff »

Let go of the odds. Trust your feelings. I can't believe I'm typing this, but-- go with Scoop's hunch. You'll be very glad you did because

I

am

Elongated Man.
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by Grundbegriff »

Calling me villain's a grievous distortion!
In truth, I'm a master of corporal contortion
Whose life has been charmed since I first consumed gingo
In Yucatan, where the good folks called me friend.

With my wife and a mortgage and talent sublime,
I set out to solve any mystery or crime
That perturbed our quite enviable middle-class existence
And joined with the Justice League, true to the end.

It's true that losing Sue put me in turmoil,
And while depressed, I tended toward the tinfoil.
But we were tried and true,
We were Nick and Nora, too,
And when you're blue and stretchy, it takes time to mend.

So call me hero,
I'm not a pliant Nero.
I'm not a foul disfigurer, a self-extruding Caligula.
I'm just a man-- a simple, limber man-- who can distend.
Please look within and try to comprehend.
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by RMC »

Grundbegriff wrote:Calling me villain's a grievous distortion!
In truth, I'm a master of corporal contortion
Whose life has been charmed since I first consumed gingo
In Yucatan, where the good folks called me friend.

With my wife and a mortgage and talent sublime,
I set out to solve any mystery or crime
That perturbed our quite enviable middle-class existence
And joined with the Justice League, true to the end.

It's true that losing Sue put me in turmoil,
And while depressed, I tended toward the tinfoil.
But we were tried and true,
We were Nick and Nora, too,
And when you're blue and stretchy, it takes time to mend.

So call me hero,
I'm not a pliant Nero.
I'm not a foul disfigurer, a self-extruding Caligula.
I'm just a man-- a simple, limber man-- who can distend.
Please look within and try to comprehend.
Man, you are a poet and you don't even know it.

Also, a very good spoofer.
Difficulties mastered are opportunities won. - Winston Churchill
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by El Guapo »

Grundbegriff wrote:Calling me villain's a grievous distortion!
In truth, I'm a master of corporal contortion
Whose life has been charmed since I first consumed gingo
In Yucatan, where the good folks called me friend.

With my wife and a mortgage and talent sublime,
I set out to solve any mystery or crime
That perturbed our quite enviable middle-class existence
And joined with the Justice League, true to the end.

It's true that losing Sue put me in turmoil,
And while depressed, I tended toward the tinfoil.
But we were tried and true,
We were Nick and Nora, too,
And when you're blue and stretchy, it takes time to mend.

So call me hero,
I'm not a pliant Nero.
I'm not a foul disfigurer, a self-extruding Caligula.
I'm just a man-- a simple, limber man-- who can distend.
Please look within and try to comprehend.
Did you just bang that out?
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by Grundbegriff »

El Guapo wrote: Did you just bang that out?
Right after the Let Go post, I drove to work. Once here, I sat down and banged it out prior to the daily mtg.
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by Grundbegriff »

And I did it for truth and justice, because I'm right but all out of arguments!

Reward my sincerity and musical-theatricality with a vote against dastardly RMC!
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by RMC »

Grundbegriff wrote:And I did it for truth and justice, because I'm right but all out of arguments!

Reward my sincerity and musical-theatricality with a vote against dastardly RMC!
Man, I am so much more Dudley Do right, then Dastardly Dan. Just sayin.
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by Grundbegriff »

Yeah, you're able to fake Pollyanna brilliantly. That's why we're in this fix.

Kudos. Whatever happens, this is your finest hour.
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by RMC »

Grundbegriff wrote:Yeah, you're able to fake Pollyanna brilliantly. That's why we're in this fix.

Kudos. Whatever happens, this is your finest hour.
My wife's nickname is Pollyanna. Her real name is Leanna. Just interesting RMC trivia, absolutely nothing to do with the game. :)
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by Scoop20906 »

RMC, who would you vote for if you were in El Guapo or myself shoe's?
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by RMC »

Scoop20906 wrote:RMC, who would you vote for if you were in El Guapo or myself shoe's?
You know that is a great question. Grund is outstanding in these games, very thoughtful and always very analytical. He provides excellent input and ferrets out information that others miss. He is also a very good opponent in whatever role he has. I think he always uses all opportunities to maximize his power set. With that said, he planted bread crumbs that could always be used or ignored as needed, which one would expect from Grund. He did a masterful job, of coming out when he did, for the reasons he outlined. If I didn't know how was whom, I might vote for Grund as well.

And add into the history I have with you, Scoop, since there was a game of WW, Star Wars flavored, in which I was Mara Jade, and won the game on being converted after I think I was proven, I am sure this puts a more focused view on me.

But Grund waited until all the hero's were reveled and then came out with an unprovable role by us. He had the perfect excuse for why a night kill happened and it not be him as the target. All he needed to do was come out when you were all asking for all the heroes to come out. But he waited for me to come out. Now I think I hinted I was a special before coming out, so that might have helped Grund, and he might have suspected that I was red Rocket, since that is the only hero I pointed out. No way to know what Grund was thinking in reality.

I think I would still vote for Grund, because he is the more likely to be lying in this situation. But I think my view is a little skewed, since I know who is telling the truth.
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by Scoop20906 »

Thinking
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by Grundbegriff »

Do the right thing, El Guapo!
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by RMC »

Grundbegriff wrote:Do the right thing, El Guapo!
He already is, Scoop is the one that needs to change his vote.
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by Grundbegriff »

El Guapo,
It's time your vote to swappo.
Our only hope of victory is you.

You must exchange it.
Please rearrange it.
Right now it's aimed at me,
But the villain's RMC.

A time for choosing,
Is offered you, and losing
Would be unfortunate for all concerned.

So go on-- switch it!
Dislodge your current vote and pitch it!
If you do, I guarantee you won't get burned!
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by RMC »

Grundbegriff wrote:El Guapo,
It's time your vote to swappo.
Our only hope of victory is you.

You must exchange it.
Please rearrange it.
Right now it's aimed at me,
But the villain's RMC.

A time for choosing,
Is offered you, and losing
Would be unfortunate for all concerned.

So go on-- switch it!
Dislodge your current vote and pitch it!
If you do, I guarantee you won't get burned!
I got one too!

Roses are Red
Violets are Blue
Grunds the villain
Don't be caught Chillin

:)
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by Scoop20906 »

Grundbegriff wrote:Let go of the odds. Trust your feelings. I can't believe I'm typing this, but-- go with Scoop's hunch.
El Guapo, would Grund really sink to the lowest level to backing up my hunch just to trick us?
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by El Guapo »

Scoop20906 wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Let go of the odds. Trust your feelings. I can't believe I'm typing this, but-- go with Scoop's hunch.
El Guapo, would Grund really sink to the lowest level to backing up my hunch just to trick us?
I would think so. Why wouldn't the guilty party lie at this point, when victory is on the horizon? What is to be lost by doing so? Honestly I'm not sure how anything said by RMC or Grund at this point is of much evidentiary value.

The only reliable data at this point is: (1) the circumstances under which each party announced their asserted role; (2) day 1 behavior; and (3) night 1 behavior (day 2 is mostly useless on account of the lynch being driven by undeniable evidence).

#1 favors RMC's innocence, as discussed. Day 1 favors Grund's innocence, insofar as he voted for Moliere before it was cool (though admittedly, also voted stessier before it was cool), and Vorret made something of an effort to throw Grund under the bus as the noose closed in. Night 1 favors RMC's innocence slightly insofar as Grund started to try to throw me under the bus.

My current vote is based mainly on weighing the role announcement a bit more. Maybe it's the Vulcan in me, but I dislike relying on hunches. Do you have any non-hunch based arguments?
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by El Guapo »

RMC wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:El Guapo,
It's time your vote to swappo.
Our only hope of victory is you.

You must exchange it.
Please rearrange it.
Right now it's aimed at me,
But the villain's RMC.

A time for choosing,
Is offered you, and losing
Would be unfortunate for all concerned.

So go on-- switch it!
Dislodge your current vote and pitch it!
If you do, I guarantee you won't get burned!
I got one too!

Roses are Red
Violets are Blue
Grunds the villain
Don't be caught Chillin

:)
What does "don't be caught chillin" mean?" Why don't I want to be chillin?
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by RMC »

El Guapo wrote:
RMC wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:El Guapo,
It's time your vote to swappo.
Our only hope of victory is you.

You must exchange it.
Please rearrange it.
Right now it's aimed at me,
But the villain's RMC.

A time for choosing,
Is offered you, and losing
Would be unfortunate for all concerned.

So go on-- switch it!
Dislodge your current vote and pitch it!
If you do, I guarantee you won't get burned!
I got one too!

Roses are Red
Violets are Blue
Grunds the villain
Don't be caught Chillin

:)
What does "don't be caught chillin" mean?" Why don't I want to be chillin?
I have no idea, I was trying to rhyme with Villain... It's the best poetry I can do. No talent for it myself.
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by Scoop20906 »

I've run out of analysis that wouldn't be a re-hash of we've already discussed.

RMC, you are the devil.

But, Grund is going to have to face the fists of

CAPTAIN MARVEL
Image

 withdrawal RMC 
 


 accuse grundbegriff 
 
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by RMC »

Scoop20906 wrote:I've run out of analysis that wouldn't be a re-hash of we've already discussed.

RMC, you are the devil.

But, Grund is going to have to face the fists of

CAPTAIN MARVEL
Image

 withdrawal RMC 
 


 accuse grundbegriff 
 

You will not be disappointed by the results!
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by Grundbegriff »

Oh, well.

Congrats, villains.
Last edited by Grundbegriff on Wed Feb 03, 2016 8:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by Scoop20906 »

Grundbegriff wrote:Oh, well.

Congrats. villains.
Dude, don't say that.
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by Grundbegriff »

Scoop20906 wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Oh, well.

Congrats, villains.
Dude, don't say that.
You can't say I didn't warn you!
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by RMC »

Scoop20906 wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Oh, well.

Congrats. villains.
Dude, don't say that.
Oh, but he just might actually be saying the right thing.. I mean Red Rocket is a crappy hero... ;)

I really do love you Scoop. :)
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by Scoop20906 »

AAARRTGGGHGGGGHVJLCKGXJGXJCVHHVYYVUVVUUVIVULVYU

THATS TWICE!!

YOU ARE THE DEVIL!!!!!!!'jgfujfcgjcxgjitz
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by Grundbegriff »

El Guapo wrote:My current vote is based mainly on weighing the role announcement a bit more. Maybe it's the Vulcan in me, but I dislike relying on hunches. Do you have any non-hunch based arguments?
Your mistake was to assume that the fact that you and I (and a few others) are quasi-Vulcan means that everyone in the universe of discourse (in this case, the game) is quasi-Vulcan. But in harsh, analog reality, many people do many things without calculating well, and many do things on a whim without calculating at all. If you never go with an intuition, a hunch, a counter-intuition, then you fallaciously exclude many actual states of affairs and chains of causation a priori.
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by Grundbegriff »

That said-- why did you come out as RR and ask to be lynched, RMC?
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by Scoop20906 »

RMC's true role...

Enlarge Image
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by RMC »

Grundbegriff wrote:That said-- why did you come out as RR and ask to be lynched, RMC?
I am Clayface. I was going to spoof the Elongated Man, but when I assumed that Identity, I discovered that he was in the game. So that told me that their were 4 hero's and I figured I needed to be reluctant and come out. And have a non provable Hero, and one that I could use to explain my silence earlier in the game.

Then I figured what the hell, Scoop will lynch me in a second, so let's come out and play the part as if I am Red Rocket. The only logical move would be to beg to be lynched, except if we KNEW we had the bad guy. I figured it was a done deal that I was a goner.

When you guys trashed Stress, oh man, I was surprised and had no idea what to do. So I figure off the Detroit crew, WTH.

I guess I do have kind of big balls... :)


Oh, and I owe it all to Scoop. He is the one who gave me the sage advice, "When you are a wolf, ignore everything else and just play as you normally do." So I did...
Difficulties mastered are opportunities won. - Winston Churchill
Sheesh, this is one small box. Thankfully, everything's packed in nicely this time. Not too tight nor too loose (someone's sig in 3, 2, ...). - Hepcat
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RMC
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Re: Justice League the Next Generation Day 4

Post by RMC »

Scoop20906 wrote:RMC's true role...

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Devil Dinosaur? Man, I have about as much hair, but I have longer arms... :)
Difficulties mastered are opportunities won. - Winston Churchill
Sheesh, this is one small box. Thankfully, everything's packed in nicely this time. Not too tight nor too loose (someone's sig in 3, 2, ...). - Hepcat
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