Presidential Primary Debates

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:42 pm

Webb's protection is the key. I think it is still fair to say that Webb should just keep quiet though as we have to play it out and if for some unknown reason he cannot protect Grund tonight we do not want Ben to know.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:43 pm

on the other hand though if Grund is unprotected tonight we could lose two scans...

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:47 pm

Lassr wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Newcastle wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Newcastle wrote:Just kind of adding on...I think I would have gambled and tried to hit grund last night. Yeah it could mean an instant loss
How could it have meant an instant loss?
i thought if carson hit webbs protectee carson dies...thought i read that somewhere...but just checked the rules...and nope not instant loss...just a block...which makes it that much more puzzling as to why grund is alive...i know i would have taken a shot at him by now. no way would i have left him alive.
So... the best explanation for why someone would decide not to take a shot at me might be... that someone thought there was a risk associated with attacking Webb's protectee. Right?
only reason I can think of. Not even trying to eliminate you and your scan was a total surprise when last night would have been the night to do it (if ever thing was going by the script)

or someone wasn't paying attention..i really cant understand why someone didn't take out grund. At the least they should have knocked on grunds door on the first night Grund came out, and should they have missed then....then take him out on the 2nd day grund was out....

I'd think any experienced wolf would realize that having a proven grund with scanning abilities is a serious death wish and they cant let him live. Period. Maybe they want to "prove something" that they won despite Grund being alive and proven...etc....but who really goes for those style points? I dont think that's it though.

-so they didn't read the rules correctly (thought ben would be killed by Ben's protection)...what i alluded to earlier
-weren't paying attention (say they were in a rush)
-wanted the style points.

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:02 pm

Votes Received
(1) Newcastle: Isgrimnur
(0) Lassr:
(0) Isgrimnur:
(1) bb2112: RevHempus71
(0) Grundbegriff:
(0) RevHempus71:

Four votes are needed to make a majority.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:07 pm

Lassr wrote:Webb's protection is the key. I think it is still fair to say that Webb should just keep quiet though as we have to play it out and if for some unknown reason he cannot protect Grund tonight we do not want Ben to know.

Clearly. But Webb's done a great job so far, so I'm not worried about it.

Lassr wrote:on the other hand though if Grund is unprotected tonight we could lose two scans...

That won't happen.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:19 pm

Lassr wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Newcastle wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Newcastle wrote:Just kind of adding on...I think I would have gambled and tried to hit grund last night. Yeah it could mean an instant loss
How could it have meant an instant loss?
i thought if carson hit webbs protectee carson dies...thought i read that somewhere...but just checked the rules...and nope not instant loss...just a block...which makes it that much more puzzling as to why grund is alive...i know i would have taken a shot at him by now. no way would i have left him alive.
So... the best explanation for why someone would decide not to take a shot at me might be... that someone thought there was a risk associated with attacking Webb's protectee. Right?
only reason I can think of. Not even trying to eliminate you and your scan was a total surprise when last night would have been the night to do it (if ever thing was going by the script)

The irony is that if Webb picked up on my earlier hint/guidance, then it's possible that neither RMC nor I was protected last night!

Enough said about that!

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:23 pm

Is it like Newcastle to be confused about the rules like that? I mean, genuinely confused?

Pretending not to know the Ben-rules is a common way for Ben to casually, seemingly passively indicate that he's not Ben.

Newcastle is, in fact, the person I had in mind in this post; naming Lassr was, as Lassr guessed, just a tactic to stir up info at that point.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:25 pm

OOOoooooOOOOOoooooooo

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:25 pm

bb2112 wrote:On a side note, this also means Rev protected somebody other than Hilary and Grund the night before. Doesn't seem likely, does it?

Depends on whether he thought I might be communicating tactics to him in my posts about him.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:26 pm

with the latest developments I would lean more Newcastle or ISSY and drop BB to third.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:27 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:Is it like Newcastle to be confused about the rules like that? I mean, genuinely confused?

Pretending not to know the Ben-rules is a common way for Ben to casually, seemingly passively indicate that he's not Ben.

Newcastle is, in fact, the person I had in mind in this post; naming Lassr was, as Lassr guessed, just a tactic to stir up info at that point.

Yep, that is what I am thinking now.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:28 pm

Newcastle wrote:Maybe they want to "prove something" that they won despite Grund being alive and proven...etc....but who really goes for those style points?

I do! I do!

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:34 pm

Lassr wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Is it like Newcastle to be confused about the rules like that? I mean, genuinely confused?

Pretending not to know the Ben-rules is a common way for Ben to casually, seemingly passively indicate that he's not Ben.

Newcastle is, in fact, the person I had in mind in this post; naming Lassr was, as Lassr guessed, just a tactic to stir up info at that point.
Yep, that is what I am thinking now.

Why do you keep sidling up to me like that?

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:43 pm

Grund - do i know the deep rules...sometimes i do sometimes i dont. Up to you guys to decide what you think is the truth is. I gave the rules a read through initially to see what was up, and guess i obfuscated how Webb's powers worked....meh so be it. Not usually a big rules monkey. So am sure my previous confusion can be held against me, and its perfectly reasonable to do so. I actually realized that when i said what i did earlier it could be held against me as to why not a grund hit last night...

If that's what you guys want to hang me for...cool beans...just hope you get the Elephant lover tomorrow. Since I am a solid whiff....a mega miss....a water balloon popping on contact.....a grapefruit going splatty.....

/Wonders to self "have I gotten a pac donation yet from teh Cirtrus association
/Tweets out "Citrus is great for American's youth and mind. Eat something tangy today!"

Let me leave with this thought...do you really, i mean really think that I would not hit Grund as a wolf? Seriously? Why would i leave him untouched TWO nights in a row. I'd have taken him out pretty damn early, if not on night 1. If you guys really think I'm that type of wolf...i'm dissapointed that you think so low of my wolf skills

Style points? NO way in hell. With Grund and youre a wolf...you take him out fast, fast, fast.

Anyway....

/checks his Smartphone
/reads his Newcastle for US Pac APP and sees Citrus Assoc. has dropped 10K more in the kitty
/thinks to self probably too late to save my hide seeing how my poll numbers are dropping

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:51 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Lassr wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Is it like Newcastle to be confused about the rules like that? I mean, genuinely confused?

Pretending not to know the Ben-rules is a common way for Ben to casually, seemingly passively indicate that he's not Ben.

Newcastle is, in fact, the person I had in mind in this post; naming Lassr was, as Lassr guessed, just a tactic to stir up info at that point.
Yep, that is what I am thinking now.

Why do you keep sidling up to me like that?

to make you feel uncomfortable...

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:55 pm

Newcastle wrote:Let me leave with this thought...do you really, i mean really think that I would not hit Grund as a wolf? Seriously? ...I'd have taken him out pretty damn early, if not on night 1.

Technically, I was hit on the second night of the game. But this I rose (in the polls) again... like a stalk of corn in the fertile soils of Iowa.

Why would i leave him untouched TWO nights in a row.

It's hard to imagine, right? I mean, the deaths in order were:

Night: Chaosraven, Semaj, El Guapo (Grundbegriff alive), RMC (Grundbegriff alive)

And since we're making lists, the expulsions were:
Day: Vorret, Grundbegriff (immediately revived), Scoop (R), Remus (R)

Perhaps there are several good reasons for skipping me. Here are two:

(1) believing I was protected on the third night, and then coming to believe that I was unprotected on the third after all and would be protected on the fourth.
(2) that, plus thinking the stakes were higher than they are because of a confusion over the consequences of attacking Webb's protectee.

Which is more likely? I think (1) is more likely, since even (2) presupposes (1). Ben definitely doesn't want to die automatically (which wouldn't have happened); but he also doesn't want to whiff.

Remus was alive to collaborate with Ben about the third night's kill; on the fourth night, Ben was all alone.

Edit: removed a stray comma.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:57 pm

Lassr wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Lassr wrote:Yep, that is what I am thinking now.
Why do you keep sidling up to me like that?
to make you feel uncomfortable...

It's working!

Originally, you suspected bb2112, then Newcastle, then Isgrimnur. Now you suspect Newcastle, Isgrimnur, bb2112.

Why was it so easy for you to replace your 1st-place suspect with your 2nd-place suspect? And why did you demote your 1st-place suspect to 3rd position rather than 2nd?

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 2:00 pm

Let add this other strand then...

the wolf wants to get to the end game. They can afford to ignore Grund, because they are secure in their position and havent created much threat.

If they whiff on grund it pushes the wolves win back a bit more.

Since the top two lynch targets by the village are BB & Newcastle...if the wolf can get them to miss on those two in consecutive days ...they win.

Not sure how the math works out lynching wise if they whiff on grund's protection a night, and such.

Anyway, I'll be back later while you little neophyte poli-ticks keep discussing such fascinating topics in the Senate floor...imma gonna go make some executive decisions!

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 2:01 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:Why was it so easy for you to replace your 1st-place suspect with your 2nd-place suspect? And why did you demote your 1st-place suspect to 3rd position rather than 2nd?

Lousy sort routine?

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 2:05 pm

Newcastle wrote:Since the top two lynch targets by the village are BB & Newcastle...if the wolf can get them to miss on those two in consecutive days ...they win.
Not sure how the math works out lynching wise if they whiff on grund's protection a night, and such.

So even though you're voting against him at the moment, you're pretty sure that Lynch Target First Class bb2112 is a miss?

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 2:06 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Why was it so easy for you to replace your 1st-place suspect with your 2nd-place suspect? And why did you demote your 1st-place suspect to 3rd position rather than 2nd?
Lousy sort routine?

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 2:11 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Lassr wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Lassr wrote:Yep, that is what I am thinking now.
Why do you keep sidling up to me like that?
to make you feel uncomfortable...
It's working!

Originally, you suspected bb2112, then Newcastle, then Isgrimnur. Now you suspect Newcastle, Isgrimnur, bb2112.

Why was it so easy for you to replace your 1st-place suspect with your 2nd-place suspect? And why did you demote your 1st-place suspect to 3rd position rather than 2nd?

BB felt off all game to me and when he jumped on your vote of me it really felt wolfish.

His last post brings out what I was thinking the whole time and I agree with him and he is ok with us voting for him. Yes, it could be a republican move to make him look good but as he says if Webb did what he should have done this game is over either way.

So when you lived it had me thinking why? What is the advantage and I could come up with none. Even IF Ben thought he would die by attacking Webb's protection target why not go for it last night anyhow when you were most likely unprotected. If Ben died game over, if you died then game afoot. By not testing you with an attack it is essentially game over now or should be.

So my thought process on the last republican is in fluctuation. Newcastle because he thought Ben could die, but as I pointed out, and BB, it is still game over. My real thought is it may be someone that didn't think this through maybe due to time...Isgrimnur.

SO my confidence in BB as republican has taken a big hit.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 2:14 pm

If you're Ben, you're doing a good job of expressing Democratic thoughts.

It's interesting to me that the game really could go either way at this point.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 3:23 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Newcastle wrote:Since the top two lynch targets by the village are BB & Newcastle...if the wolf can get them to miss on those two in consecutive days ...they win.
Not sure how the math works out lynching wise if they whiff on grund's protection a night, and such.
So even though you're voting against him at the moment, you're pretty sure that Lynch Target First Class bb2112 is a miss?

Hypothetically speaking.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 3:26 pm

I really didnt want to bring this up...but the same thought struck me earlier about issy that Lassr stated....and i hate using meta against him.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 3:28 pm

We shouldn't use meta; and I have it on good authority that any perceived delays had to do with issues in la vie de Molière.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 3:29 pm

Whaddya think about Lassr's sudden affinity for my every opinion?

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 3:47 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:We shouldn't use meta; and I have it on good authority that any perceived delays had to do with issues in la vie de Molière.

Not the delay....but more the sloppy kill and not taking you out. It doesnt seem like a well thought plan

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 3:49 pm

Either way. A player who spends part of the game in crisis in the ER gets a pass.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 3:50 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:We shouldn't use meta; and I have it on good authority that any perceived delays had to do with issues in la vie de Molière.

my thought wasn't on delay but right frame of mind or time to completely think it through. I still am not sure where to place my vote. Newcastle has played the helpful villager very well during this game and if he is republican then Bravo to him as he had me fooled most of the game.

BB could have had a moment of clarity that he screwed up with his kill choice and made that post knowing it was game over and just trying to stretch the game out as far as he can.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 3:54 pm

Lassr wrote:BB could have had a moment of clarity that he screwed up with his kill choice and made that post knowing it was game over and just trying to stretch the game out as far as he can.

What would be the point of that? Why not just move on to the next game. We have three pending!

Reactions:
bb2112: Whatevs. Here's a slightly-confuddled braindump.
Newcastle: Me? No, not me!
Lassr: chillier than chill
Isgrimnur: algorithm joke

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:01 pm

I don't mind saying that I think all of you-- Lassr, Isgrimnur, bb2112, and Newcastle-- are acting like Republicans, skilled werewolves to a man. If the Democrats lose this game, it'll be for that reason.
Edit: to change the edit count from 1 to 2.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:01 pm

...thank you?

RevHempus71 · Post by **RevHempus71** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:05 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:I don't mind saying that I think all of you-- Lassr, Isgrimnur, bb2112, and Newcastle-- are acting like Republicans, skilled werewolves to a man. If the Democrats lose this game, it'll be for that reason.

I agree. I do see a Dem win tho. Well it better be after all this. My first time as the protector. Have loved it.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:05 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:...thank you?

If you're the Republican, then at least one thing has broken your way this week!

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:08 pm

RevHempus71 wrote:I agree. I do see a Dem win tho. Well it better be after all this. My first time as the protector. Have loved it.

You've played it well, from the hint at the beginning that seemed too overt to be real, to your declining to answer when multiple people pointed it out, to your patience in waiting for a good moment to step forward, to your hidden selections. I literally have no idea what you did each night, and I suspect that uncertainty is widespread.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:09 pm

My own hunch is Newcastle. If bb2112 is guilty, then his tricky "I'm just an innocent sent unto death; good luck" act has successfully lessened my suspicion of him... enough that I'm willing to accuse Newcastle

RevHempus71 · Post by **RevHempus71** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:16 pm

Let's go then. Newcastle

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:17 pm

Lassr wrote: His last post brings out what I was thinking the whole time and I agree with him and he is ok with us voting for him.

Hilarious. I did something similar earlier in the game with a +1 on one of your comments and I have been in your cross hairs ever since.

Anyway, to quote a very smart man - and this still makes me laugh.

Et tu Newcastle?

I am going to assume by Grund's vote, that Newcastle is not the player he scanned. Although I would rather not put votes out there until it is confirmed.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:18 pm

bb2112 wrote:I am going to assume by Grund's vote, that Newcastle is not the player he scanned.

That's sort of a funny assumption.