Presidential Primary Debates

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Tue Dec 15, 2015 8:35 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:Sorry for the absence. Been out of work for two days and spent yesterday morning in the ER. Last couple of days haven't been fun.

Sorry to hear that. Doing better now?

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Tue Dec 15, 2015 8:35 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:Sorry for the absence. Been out of work for two days and spent yesterday morning in the ER. Last couple of days haven't been fun.

be well. no need to worry bout the game here. Just do your thang!

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Tue Dec 15, 2015 8:37 pm

We're down to just 4 possible Republicans. Howzabout everyone lists all four in descending order by intensity of suspicion.

Edited to move aggregation of lists of suspects....

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Tue Dec 15, 2015 8:45 pm

How bout 3- since i just cant suspect the truth of my own socialist tendencies.

BB
Lassr
Issy

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Dec 15, 2015 8:46 pm

Chest pain for a week. Previous bouts have been checked, and it's not cardiac, but this one lasted longer than most.

No clue as to the cause, aside from 'not cardiac'. Got pain pills and an appointment with a new primary care doc on Monday.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Tue Dec 15, 2015 8:48 pm

Take is Easy, Issy. Glad it's not cardiac

Rank of suspects:
BB2112
Newcastle
Issy

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Tue Dec 15, 2015 8:49 pm

wait, could the fact that Issy was in the hospital be a clue that he is Dr. Carson!

RevHempus71 · Post by **RevHempus71** » Tue Dec 15, 2015 8:53 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:Chest pain for a week. Previous bouts have been checked, and it's not cardiac, but this one lasted longer than most.

No clue as to the cause, aside from 'not cardiac'. Got pain pills and an appointment with a new primary care doc on Monday.

As a survivor of heart attack, I know the pain. Glad yours is not cardiac. Many things can manifest as chest pains. First thing you can do is slow down a bit. Take it easy for a bit.

RevHempus71 · Post by **RevHempus71** » Tue Dec 15, 2015 8:58 pm

BB2112
Newcastle
Isgrimnur
Lassr

In order.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Tue Dec 15, 2015 9:03 pm

From RevHempus71:
bb2112
Newcastle
Isgrimnur
Lassr

From Newcastle:
bb2112
Lassr
Isgrimnur

From Lassr:
bb2112
Newcastle
Isgrimnur

From bb2112:
Newcastle
Isgrimnur
Lassr

From Isgrimnur:
bb2112
Newcastle
Lassr

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Dec 15, 2015 9:18 pm

I'd say bb or newc.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:32 am

Newcastle
Isgrimnur
Lassr

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:35 am

Isgrimnur wrote:Chest pain for a week. Previous bouts have been checked, and it's not cardiac, but this one lasted longer than most.

No clue as to the cause, aside from 'not cardiac'. Got pain pills and an appointment with a new primary care doc on Monday.

Good luck on Monday. Hopefully they can figure out what it is and make it go away. That does not sound fun.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:36 am

Grundbegriff wrote:From RevHempus71:
bb2112
Newcastle
Isgrimnur
Lassr

From Newcastle:
bb2112
Lassr
Isgrimnur

From Lassr:
bb2112
Newcastle
Isgrimnur

From bb2112:
Newcastle
...
...

From Isgrimnur:
bb2112
Newcastle
Lassr

Uh, I hope you scanned me, or it is going to be a bad day for the good guys.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:45 am

Now: DDdddR

Today, miss: DDddR
Tonight, death: DddR

Tomorrow, miss: DdR <-- we lose if this happens
Tomorrow night, death: dR

Summary: If we miss today, we have to hit tomorrow. Two strikes, and we're out.

RevHempus71 · Post by **RevHempus71** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:28 am

Grundbegriff wrote:Now: DDdddR

Today, miss: DDddR
Tonight, death: DddR

Tomorrow, miss: DdR <-- we lose if this happens
Tomorrow night, death: dR

Summary: If we miss today, we have to hit tomorrow. Two strikes, and we're out.

Ok
Me = Webb
Grund = Bern
Grunds scan = as yet unnamed Jr democrat

BB2112, Newcastle, Isgrimnur, Lassr one of these were scanned. 3 known (if only to Ground)
3 vs 3
We have to vote in the three unknowns. Grund controls the vote.

Ben, oh Ben,
You could always come turn yourself in to me. Tonight even, promise it will be quick... Because I got high, because I got high.....

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 9:10 am

Grundbegriff wrote:Now: DDdddR

Today, miss: DDddR
Tonight, death: DddR

Tomorrow, miss: DdR <-- we lose if this happens
Tomorrow night, death: dR

Summary: If we miss today, we have to hit tomorrow. Two strikes, and we're out.

Right, 2 misses out of 3 candidates, once you have announced your scan.

I still can't believe you are alive today. Knowing you can prove an additional person further limits the pool and tremendously increases our odds.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 10:57 am

great....and now we wait on grund again...
/sighs

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 11:19 am

Don't wait for me. I'm sitting this out for a while until y'all have a chance to propose a course of action.

RevHempus71 · Post by **RevHempus71** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 11:26 am

Grundbegriff wrote:Don't wait for me. I'm sitting this out for a while until y'all have a chance to propose a course of action.

I think I get it. I think we start with BB2112.
That's where, barring new info, I would start.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 11:33 am

Grundbegriff wrote:Don't wait for me. I'm sitting this out for a while until y'all have a chance to propose a course of action.

Kind of need that scan of yours...just saying...

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 11:33 am

RevHempus71 wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Don't wait for me. I'm sitting this out for a while until y'all have a chance to propose a course of action.
I think I get it. I think we start with BB2112.
That's where, barring new info, I would start.

Yup I'd go with lynching BB.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 11:36 am

Newcastle wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Don't wait for me. I'm sitting this out for a while until y'all have a chance to propose a course of action.

Kind of need that scan of yours...just saying...

it would help. Looks like we are going BB. So a faux BB vote here. That makes 4 faux BB votes.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 11:37 am

Anyone else think it was a mistake to not try for Grund last night? Is this last GOP person that afraid of colliding with the protection?

Its really a nervy plan of theirs to not hit Grund. Which makes me wonder if they've done the odds and calculated that far ahead that they can survive...despite grund dropping a scan each day? And if that's the case then they must feel as snug as a bug in a rug.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 11:40 am

Just kind of adding on...I think I would have gambled and tried to hit grund last night. Yeah it could mean an instant loss, but grund pretty much is clearing hiding spaces for them to hide into. So...what if...BB comes up innocent....then attention is going to focus fire on me tomorrow from the look of things. That leaves Lassr & Issy in the clear should the last GOP be in that pairing.

I'm still thinking that Issy is innocent...Lassr is still my 2nd choice. But say Lassr is the GOPer would he gamble and NOT take out grund and instead hope that his reading of the game trend could afford him a victory if he could just get 2 innocent people lynched before him?

Just kind of discussing and spitballing here.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 11:41 am

Sounds like you've thought this out pretty well, Newcastle

.

Digging for the proven to serve him up as the next target if Ben is staying away from Grund

RevHempus71 · Post by **RevHempus71** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 11:41 am

Newcastle wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Don't wait for me. I'm sitting this out for a while until y'all have a chance to propose a course of action.

Kind of need that scan of yours...just saying...

No, I don't think we do. If we vote for the unscanned naturally then miss we could go into tomorrow with major info. If grund discloses with the kill vote that is.

I have hunch and I'm going with it. BB2112

take your clones/doppelgangers with you.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 11:45 am

Isgrimnur wrote:Sounds like you've thought this out pretty well, Newcastle

.

Digging for the proven to serve him up as the next target if Ben is staying away from Grund

See that's why I think youre innocent....if i were a GOPer, and you...i'd keep me alive...because I've pretty much declared you an innocent. Instead...youre voting me down...which is a mistake, but youre prerogative...i've played a very loud game. But ask yourself....would it be wise for both scoop & i to play very loud games? I'd also like to think I've added some solid PRO-Dem truthbombs along the way. (Who pointed out the keep remus alive strategy first?)

No we need that scan for a more complete information matrix. I'd prefer not to chase my tail in an exercise...though grund obviously wants us to discourse to trample up some more data.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 11:47 am

Newcastle wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Don't wait for me. I'm sitting this out for a while until y'all have a chance to propose a course of action.
Kind of need that scan of yours...just saying...

Nope-- keeping that info hidden is entirely the point of leaving you to yourselves for a while.

I know what I know; but why should Ben know what I know?

RevHempus71 · Post by **RevHempus71** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 11:50 am

I think it is obvious. We shrink the hiding pool one way, while he shrinks it the other.
We were all willing to vote for BB2112, so why scan him. Let us vote him out, he scans another. Awesome.
Tonight we get another round of where am I waiting for Ben.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 11:54 am

Newcastle wrote:Just kind of adding on...I think I would have gambled and tried to hit grund last night. Yeah it could mean an instant loss

How could it have meant an instant loss?

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:00 pm

Guys. Before you vote me out, let me do a dump on some thoughts. I am busy here at work and I don't know if I can get it down before tonight. So please be patient.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:00 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Newcastle wrote:Just kind of adding on...I think I would have gambled and tried to hit grund last night. Yeah it could mean an instant loss
How could it have meant an instant loss?

i thought if carson hit webbs protectee carson dies...thought i read that somewhere...but just checked the rules...and nope not instant loss...just a block...which makes it that much more puzzling as to why grund is alive...i know i would have taken a shot at him by now. no way would i have left him alive.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:01 pm

bb2112 wrote:Guys. Before you vote me out, let me do a dump on some thoughts. I am busy here at work and I don't know if I can get it down before tonight. So please be patient.

dont worry i aint dropping any vote till we get that scan from grund.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:02 pm

bb2112 wrote:Guys. Before you vote me out, let me do a dump on some thoughts. I am busy here at work and I don't know if I can get it down before tonight. So please be patient.

Yes, please keep your powder dry until bb has a chance to say his piece.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:24 pm

Newcastle wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Newcastle wrote:Just kind of adding on...I think I would have gambled and tried to hit grund last night. Yeah it could mean an instant loss
How could it have meant an instant loss?
i thought if carson hit webbs protectee carson dies...thought i read that somewhere...but just checked the rules...and nope not instant loss...just a block...which makes it that much more puzzling as to why grund is alive...i know i would have taken a shot at him by now. no way would i have left him alive.

So... the best explanation for why someone would decide not to take a shot at me might be... that someone thought there was a risk associated with attacking Webb's protectee. Right?

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:24 pm

Newcastle wrote:
bb2112 wrote:Guys. Before you vote me out, let me do a dump on some thoughts. I am busy here at work and I don't know if I can get it down before tonight. So please be patient.

dont worry i aint dropping any vote till we get that scan from grund.

it may be safe to say that Grund did not scan BB and that is why he is ok with letting us lynch him. If he did scan BB then I would hope he would stop us.

If everything went as planned then Webb should be able to protect Grund tonight so he can release both scans tonight. Now if Webb took a chance two nights ago and did not protect Grund (unimaginable!) then Grund would be in trouble tonight and we would lose both scans if he is targeted.

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:26 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Newcastle wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Newcastle wrote:Just kind of adding on...I think I would have gambled and tried to hit grund last night. Yeah it could mean an instant loss
How could it have meant an instant loss?
i thought if carson hit webbs protectee carson dies...thought i read that somewhere...but just checked the rules...and nope not instant loss...just a block...which makes it that much more puzzling as to why grund is alive...i know i would have taken a shot at him by now. no way would i have left him alive.
So... the best explanation for why someone would decide not to take a shot at me might be... that someone thought there was a risk associated with attacking Webb's protectee. Right?

only reason I can think of. Not even trying to eliminate you and your scan was a total surprise when last night would have been the night to do it (if ever thing was going by the script)

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:27 pm

hmmm.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Dec 16, 2015 12:33 pm

Newcastle wrote:Anyone else think it was a mistake to not try for Grund last night? Is this last GOP person that afraid of colliding with the protection?

Its really a nervy plan of theirs to not hit Grund. Which makes me wonder if they've done the odds and calculated that far ahead that they can survive...despite grund dropping a scan each day? And if that's the case then they must feel as snug as a bug in a rug.

Ok. Ready for my tin foil hat and Mara Jade thoughts? No? Well, I'm going to tell you anyway.

Our pool of unknowns is down to 3. Assuming Grund was not protected last night, then he can be protected tonight and get another scan.

Scenario 1: We kill one of our 3 today. That leaves 2 unknown tonight. Grund gets protected, therefore if Ben wants to progress the game, he has to kill an unknown. Leaving us with one unknown tomorrow. Automatic win.

Scenario 2: We kill one of our 3 today. That leaves 2 unknown tonight. Grund gets protected and Ben tries to kill Grund. Automatic miss. Grund gets another scan. Leaving us with one unknown tomorrow. Automatic win.

As long as Grund was not protected last night - no matter who we kill today (as long as Grund tells us his scans) then we win. This is not a play I would have made. To pull out the game, Grund had to be killed last night.

If Grund was protected last night, then Ben has to go for him tonight, otherwise it is an automatic loss for the Republicans tomorrow. Grund dies tonight and that still leaves a pool of 2 unknowns for tomorrow. Not an automatic win, but odds are probably on the good guys side. I would hope. On a side note, this also means Rev protected somebody other than Hilary and Grund the night before. Doesn't seem likely, does it?

I started down another path where Grund is this evil mastermind and manipulated us all into believing he is Bernie when Bernie was either CR, Vorret, or possibly Semaj, but then I read Hilary's power again.

Hillary Clinton: If the Democrats ever lose 2 debate votes in a row then she can resurrect the Democrat of her choosing. Both her and the person she resurrects will be outed in the process. This power can't be used at the end of the game on the vote that decides the final winners.

So that's not possible.

So basically, depending on the protection orders given by Rev, this game could be essentially over.

I was going to post the votes for the last several days and do more analysis, but I don't think it matters because I think we have already won. Although the win will most likely come tomorrow. Go ahead and vote me off now.