OBSOLETE -- [WW] Danger Zone! -- OBSOLETE

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 3:14 pm

Lassr wrote:I think that puts the vote at 4 apiece for Moliere and RMC.

Grund is still quiet on the reasoning behind his allegation. Grund and Scoop seems to think that RMC's post was not a "Poke the Innocents" moment. And Remus agrees with Grund and I about RMCs post...so it is and is not a slip....

El Guapo ran the numbers and what would an evil Grund (even if Barry) accomplish by framing Moliere this early?

Vorret posted while I was typing.

So RMC-3?
Moliere-5?

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 3:15 pm

Lassr wrote:
Lassr wrote:I think that puts the vote at 4 apiece for Moliere and RMC.

Grund is still quiet on the reasoning behind his allegation. Grund and Scoop seems to think that RMC's post was not a "Poke the Innocents" moment. And Remus agrees with Grund and I about RMCs post...so it is and is not a slip....

El Guapo ran the numbers and what would an evil Grund (even if Barry) accomplish by framing Moliere this early?
Vorret posted while I was typing.

So RMC-3?
Moliere-5?

I think it's 3vs4 right now ?

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 3:18 pm

Vorret wrote:
Lassr wrote:
Lassr wrote:I think that puts the vote at 4 apiece for Moliere and RMC.

Grund is still quiet on the reasoning behind his allegation. Grund and Scoop seems to think that RMC's post was not a "Poke the Innocents" moment. And Remus agrees with Grund and I about RMCs post...so it is and is not a slip....

El Guapo ran the numbers and what would an evil Grund (even if Barry) accomplish by framing Moliere this early?
Vorret posted while I was typing.

So RMC-3?
Moliere-5?
I think it's 3vs4 right now ?

Remus voted right before you did

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 3:20 pm

Lassr wrote:
Vorret wrote:
Lassr wrote:
Lassr wrote:I think that puts the vote at 4 apiece for Moliere and RMC.

Grund is still quiet on the reasoning behind his allegation. Grund and Scoop seems to think that RMC's post was not a "Poke the Innocents" moment. And Remus agrees with Grund and I about RMCs post...so it is and is not a slip....

El Guapo ran the numbers and what would an evil Grund (even if Barry) accomplish by framing Moliere this early?
Vorret posted while I was typing.

So RMC-3?
Moliere-5?
I think it's 3vs4 right now ?
Remus voted right before you did

Oh, right... I can't do math

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:02 pm

The Assassins get a bonus with my death.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:03 pm

withdrawal Moliere

Is the bonus they don't have to listen to you in the secret forum?

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:04 pm

Well at least we outed our useless special !

wd Moliere

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:04 pm

So now I'm wondering what to do with Grund.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:12 pm

Well, step 1 is for anyone to dispute Moliere if they are in fact Cheryl. Though I am inclined to doubt that a wolf under the gun would choose to spoof her.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:12 pm

Vorret wrote:So now I'm wondering what to do with Grund.

That's obvious.

Accuse Grundbegiff

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:14 pm

El Guapo wrote:Well, step 1 is for anyone to dispute Moliere if they are in fact Cheryl. Though I am inclined to doubt that a wolf under the gun would choose to spoof her.

Wait. Why not? She can't prove her power by action. Its the perfect role to spoof.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:28 pm

Yea... I guess we can wait for a big showdown between two cheryl

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:29 pm

Vote Tally:

(3) Moliere: Grundbegriff, RMC, Remus West
(3) RMC: bb2112, Triggercut, El Guapo
(2) Grundbegriff: Moliere, Scoop

Not voting: Lassr, Vorret

Majority is 6

Lassr · Post by **Lassr** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:52 pm

RMC

I'll add a little pressure to RMC. Still would like to hear Grund's explanation.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:53 pm

Scoop20906 wrote:
El Guapo wrote:Well, step 1 is for anyone to dispute Moliere if they are in fact Cheryl. Though I am inclined to doubt that a wolf under the gun would choose to spoof her.
Wait. Why not? She can't prove her power by action. Its the perfect role to spoof.

Well, thinking about it some more there's one big caveat. I had been thinking that the wolves had no way to know who is who among the villagers (there's no evil scanner), so they would have to figure that anyone they spoof is probably still alive and would contest, so wouldn't they choose to spoof Lana so that if they're contested they get to kill Lana.

HOWEVER, I just realized that they could know, insofar as any of the deceased so far could have been Cheryl, in which case they would know that Cheryl is dead, and would also know the role of another villager.

So, if the wolves got lucky and hit Cheryl already, then they would know that they could claim Cheryl with no risk of getting disputed.

Not really sure what to do with that, other than I would think that if Grund is Malory and has scanned Moliere and found him to be an assassin, he should probably say so, right?

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:55 pm

One clarifying question:

Holman - when Cheryl dies, she can reveal the role of any living ISIS player, not just the specials, right? So she could (and statistically, probably would) just reveal to the wolves that someone is a regular ISIS villager?

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 5:04 pm

El Guapo wrote:One clarifying question:

Holman - when Cheryl dies, she can reveal the role of any living ISIS player, not just the specials, right? So she could (and statistically, probably would) just reveal to the wolves that someone is a regular ISIS villager?

The spilled name is random and can be any living player. The assassins will obviously know who was Cheryl when another player's ID is given to them, so they'll learn two at once there.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 6:46 pm

Scoop20906 wrote:
El Guapo wrote:Well, step 1 is for anyone to dispute Moliere if they are in fact Cheryl. Though I am inclined to doubt that a wolf under the gun would choose to spoof her.
Wait. Why not? She can't prove her power by action. Its the perfect role to spoof.

It's a good gambit for a cornered wolf.
(a) Cheryl might be dead. In that case, nobody contests the claim.
(b) Cheryl might contest the claim. In that case, the may kill Cheryl, which results in a scan for the Assassins, at the cost of a wolf they were about to lose anyhow.

That said, it's not a great gambit.

withdraw Moliere

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 6:48 pm

Withdrawal?!?

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Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 7:39 pm

Vote Tally:

(2) Moliere: RMC, Remus West
(4) RMC: bb2112, Triggercut, El Guapo, Lassr
(2) Grundbegriff: Moliere, Scoop

Not voting: Vorret, Grundbegriff

Majority is 6

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 9:10 pm

RMC

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 9:11 pm

Grundbegriff wrote: RMC

Oh now I see how it is... <sigh>

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 9:30 pm

RMC is at n-1.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 10:56 pm

Grund's free pass has expired.

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Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 10:57 pm

Why RMC, Grund?

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Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 11:07 pm

Scoop20906 wrote:Why RMC, Grund?

Why not RMC?

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 11:10 pm

Sorry, you got your one free pass this game. You are needlessly being obtuse with your rationale for placing a vote yet you were able to give us a reason for why you pulled your vote off Moliere.

That's not being helpful and is a harm to ISIS.

My vote stays on you.

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El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Jun 21, 2016 11:37 pm

withdraw RMC

Ok, I need to give this some more thought, what with the GrundBeShenanigans, so not totally comfortable leaving RMC at n-1 right now.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Wed Jun 22, 2016 7:10 am

Vote Tally:

(2) Moliere: RMC, Remus West
(4) RMC: bb2112, Triggercut, Lassr, Grundbegriff
(2) Grundbegriff: Moliere, Scoop

Not voting: Vorret, El Guapo

Majority is 6

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Wed Jun 22, 2016 8:06 am

I can't wrap my head around why RMC was so bent on voting Moliere, what would a wolf have to gained from starting his own train?

edit: Ehh Replace RMC with Grung there, I need my morning coffee

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Wed Jun 22, 2016 8:59 am

Well, my hunch went down in flames.

withdraw moliere

grundbegriff.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:19 pm

RMC

He was my first vote going back there

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:26 pm

Remus West wrote:Well, my hunch went down in flames.

withdraw moliere

grundbegriff.

Which hunch was this? Please elaborate.

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Holman · Post by **Holman** » Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:32 pm

Vote Tally:

(1) Moliere: RMC
(5) RMC: bb2112, Triggercut, Lassr, Grundbegriff, Vorret
(3) Grundbegriff: Moliere, Scoop, Remus West

Not voting: El Guapo

Majority is 6

RMC is at n-1.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:52 pm

N-1

Anything to say RMC?

Scoop, please don't do your namesake until after RMC has had a chance to respond.

Thanks

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:58 pm

Scoop20906 wrote:
Remus West wrote:Well, my hunch went down in flames.

withdraw moliere

grundbegriff.

Which hunch was this? Please elaborate.

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I figured that RMC trusting me day 1 meant he had scanned me. Then he came out trusting Grundbegriff day 2 so I figured he had possibly scanned Grundbegriff. Given his non-reaction to being run up though I don't see that as a possibility any longer. Thus, hunch destroyed.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Jun 22, 2016 2:57 pm

So, either RMC or Grund seem like sensible choices. It's odd that Grund is sticking to not explaining anything to the village. The main factor pointing away from possible wolfiness, I think, is that it would be odd for a wolf to draw so much attention to themselves by starting an unexplained train. If he is a wolf, he has to be Barry, I figure.

Anyway, I'm fine with RMC, and would like to hear what he has to say for himself.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Jun 22, 2016 2:57 pm

As a side note - I do worry a bit about a potential Mara Jade-esque scenario here where the wolves have already killed Cheryl, which would allow a wolf Moliere to claim Cheryl uncontested. That puts us in a bind where on the one hand it's kind of crazy to use a lynch on an uncontested villager, but at the same time if Moliere continues to live then we're in a spot where we have to eventually or we potentially lose the game on that by itself. Not sure what to do about that - only other option is to use a scan on Moliere, which seems like a waste, but would get us out of that potential pickle (if Malory is still alive and remains so).

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Jun 22, 2016 7:11 pm

It's so funny that people demand explanations. If I did know something, then that would mean I'm either an Assassin or an ISIS Special. If either were true, why would I say? And if I didn't know something but simply had a hunch, how would that be different from what anyone else (not in the previously-mentioned groups) does?

I watched Moliere and developed a strong hunch that he was something. Those who have been around the werewolf block know that the spidey-sense tingles in response to lycanthropy or specialness in much the same way.

I would've stuck with Moliere despite his claim if a contesting Cheryl had arisen. But instead, it's either the case that Cheryl is dead or the case that Moliere is indeed Cheryl. As I have already remarked, faking Cheryl would be an adequate move but not an amazing one. So odds favor Moliere's Cherylitude.

When faced with new facts, I re-calibrate my analysis and act accordingly. What do you do?

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Jun 22, 2016 7:14 pm

Seems to me that before we off RMC (against which I have no objection), we should give some thought to how people reacted to my seemingly arbitrary train. Intentionally or not, we've ended up with what Scoop called the Grund bait-and-switch scenario. And since it's sitting there, we might as well mine it for value.