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Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:08 am
by bb2112
Vorret wrote: If he had one good scan, only one, I can understand wanting to nab a 3rd Cylon but he didn't he had a bunch of useless scans and he still elected to remain silent and watch Holman die. That's why I've decided to put my vote on RMC right now.
Ah, but he did have one good scan. If he would have come out on the same day as Unagi, not only would he have saved Holman, but at that time El G was his scan the night before and he was still alive.

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:11 am
by bb2112
LordMortis wrote:
bb2112 wrote:
LordMortis wrote:difference between lynching Grund first and lynching RMC first is RMC seems more believable
Please explain how RMC is more believable?
Neither is are great for belief IMO. I'm not thrilled at the notion that they they held their cards when Unagi came out. Hence, the strong leaning that they're both cylon and not athena cylon to boot.

However, RMC comes out voluntarily and points at Grund and that's when Grund's hand is forced.
So, based on that one data point you are saying RMC is more believable than Grund because he came out first. What if Ellen scanned Grund and RMC came out first to cause this confusion and discredit Grund's scans? In a normal game where there is not evil scanner, I would be right there with you. But with an evil scanner, this puts a new dimension on the game and we have to adjust our thinking accordingly.

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:14 am
by Vorret
I'm re-reading the first few days before the big boom to see if in any of the remaining player (incl. Unagi) if there are some flags that say "hello I'm Daniel please hit me" , so far nothing ... trying to figure out if it's a protection or a conversion

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:24 am
by Vorret
The only somewhat suspicious post and it's a stretch ... oh well
LordMortis wrote:1) I'm severely annoyed. Now I have to go read the rules to figure out if there is a good reason to think "It's not unwise to let moliere claim special to avoid lynch while not knowing who he is." My first inclination is to wait to watch to claim Athena. But now I have to read and I don't have time for that.

2) For the sake of clarity, Guap and I are correct on the first vote tally but swapped on vote summary at the end.

So for now I'm not backing off moliere. I don't trust "I'm special, but trust in me you're better off knowing" and my largest fear (as I always go to the worst) is "I'm Daniel and the cylons need to find me before for you kill me so I we can coordinate before I die." But again, now I need to re read and who's got time for that?

...

Someone send me a text and let me know when moliere has revealed and I obediently place my vote on Newcastle behind Unagi, we get a cylon, and I feel foolish for not following him earlier.

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:27 am
by LordMortis
bb2112 wrote:I just had an idea that could potentially break this gridlock
You keep using these terms but the reality is moliere and Trig still haven't voted.
So, based on that one data point you are saying RMC is more believable than Grund because he came out first.
Uh, yeah. I've been saying that for pages now. Only it's two data points. He came out first and pointed at Grund.

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:33 am
by stessier
Voting Records

Legend:

acc = Accuse
wd = Withdraw
(#) = Number of votes on target
Vote at time of lynch is indicated by bullet point
strikethrough for confirmed Villagers
Red for confirmed Cylons

Day 1 - Lynch: Moliere
Spoiler:
  • Moilere acc Newcastle (1)
  • El Guapo acc stessier (1)
    LordMortis acc Moliere (1)
  • bb2112 acc Moilere (2)
    Remus acc Uangi (1)
  • Newcastle acc Moliere (3)
    Holman acc Moliere (4)
    RMC acc Moliere (5)
    tru1cy acc Unagi (2)
    Vorret acc Moliere (6)
    Unagi acc Newcastle (2)

    Moliere claims special

    RMC wd Moilere (5)
  • stessier acc tru1cy (1)
    Holman wd Moliere (4)
    Vorret wd Moliere (3)
  • Vorret acc RMC (1)
  • Holman acc Moliere (4)
    LordMortis wd Moliere (3)
  • LordMortis acc Newcastle (3)
    tru1cy wd Unagi (1)
  • tru1cy acc Moliere (4)
    Unagi wd Newcastle (2)
  • Unagi acc Moliere (5)
  • Chaos acc Moliere (6)
  • RMC acc Moliere (7)
  • Remus acc Moliere (8)
Final Record of Lynch Moliere:
  • LordMortis (1)
    bb2112 (2)
    Necastle (3)
    Holman (4)
    RMC (5)
    Vorret (6)
    • wd RMC (5)
      wd Holman (4)
      wd Vorret (3)
    Holman (4)
    • wd LordMortis (3)
    tru1cy (4)
    Unagi (5)
    Chaos(6)
    RMC (7)
    Remus (8)
Day 2 - Lynch: Newcastle
Spoiler:
  • LordMortis acc Newcastle (1)
  • Moliere acc Newcastle (2)
    stessier acc tru1cy (1)
    Newcastle acc Grund (1)
  • Unagi acc Newcastle (3)
    Newcastle wd Grund (0)
    Newcastle acc Unagi (1)
    tru1cy acc Unagi (2)
    Newcastle wd Unagi (1)
    Grund acc Unagi (2)
  • bb2112 acc Newcastle (4)
    Holman acc Newcastle (5)
    Vorret acc Unagi (3)
    Vorret wd Unagi (2)
    Chaos acc Newcastle (6)
    El Guapo acc Newcastle (7)

    Newcastle claims special

    El Guapo wd Newcastle (6)
    Chaos wd Newcastle (5)
    stessier wd tru1cy (0)
    tru1cy wd Unagi (1)
    Holman wd Newcastle (4)
    Grund wd Unagi (0)
    LordMortis wd Newcastle (3)
  • Holman acc Newcastle (4)
  • RMC acc Unagi (1)
  • Remus acc Newcastle (5)
  • Grund acc Newcastle (6)
  • Newcastle acc Newcastle (7) -> technical death
    Moliere wd Newcastle (6)
  • tru1cy acc Unagi (2)

    Final Record on Newcastle
    • LordMortis (1)
      Moliere (2)
      Unagi (3)
      bb2112 (4)
      Holman (5)
      Chaos (6)
      El Guapo (7)
      • wd El Guapo (6)
        wd Chaos (5)
        wd Holman (4)
        wd LordMortis (3)
      Holman (4)
      Remus (5)
      Grund (6)
      Newcastle (7)
Day 3 - Lynch: Holman
Spoiler:
  • Vorret acc LordMortis (1)
    Holman acc Unagi (1)
    Trig acc Unagi (2)
    LordMortis acc Unagi (3)
    Vorret wd LordMortis (0)
    Vorret acc Unagi (4)
    Moliere acc Unagi (5)
    Grund acc Unagi (6)

    Unagi claims Special

    LordMortis wd Unagi (5)
    Holman wd Unagi (4)
    Grund wd Unagi (3)
    Vorret wd Unagi (2)
    Holman acc Unagi (3)
    Holman wd Unagi (2)
    Remus acc Holman (1)
    LordMortis acc Holman (2)
    Unagi acc Holman (3)
    Holman acc Holman (4)
    Vorret acc Holman (5)
    El Guapo acc Holman (6)
    bb2112 acc Holman (7)
Unagi train
Holman (1)
Trig (2)
LordMortis (3)
Vorret (4)
Moliere (5)
Grund (6)

Holman Lynch
Remus (1)
LordMortis (2)
Unagi (3)
Holman (4)
Vorret (5)
El Guapo(6)
bb2112 (7)

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:35 am
by Lassr
Players ----------- Voted For:
1 Vorret…………. RMC
2 BB2112……….. RMC
3 Grundbegriff. stessier
4 Moliere……….
5 Triggercut……
6 RMC……………. Grundbegriff
7 stessier………. Grundbegriff
8 LordMortis…. Grundbegriff
.
Targets ----------- Voters
( stessier………. 1 )--- Grundbegriff
( Grundbegriff. 3 )--- stessier --- LordMortis --- RMC
( RMC……………. 2 )--- BB2112--- Vorret
( )---
( )---

Deaths
Scoop…………. Stoned (N-0)
No death (D-1)
No death (N-1)
Newcastle…… couldn't take it anymore (D-2)
Chaosraven… blown (N-2)
tru1cy…………. poked (N-2)
Holman……….. Oops(D-3)
El Guapo…….. No head(N-3)
Unagi………….. deactivated (D-4)
Remus West.. split(N-4)

Majority = 5
Deadline is: August 5th

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:36 am
by Vorret
Stessier is on 2 person at once

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:38 am
by triggercut
 Grundbegriff 
 

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:39 am
by Lassr
Vorret wrote:Stessier is on 2 person at once
oops. a copy error

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:41 am
by Lassr
Players ----------- Voted For:
1 Vorret…………. RMC
2 BB2112……….. RMC
3 Grundbegriff. stessier
4 Moliere……….
5 Triggercut…… Grundbegriff
6 RMC……………. Grundbegriff
7 stessier………. Grundbegriff
8 LordMortis…. Grundbegriff
.
Targets ----------- Voters
( stessier………. 1 )--- Grundbegriff
( Grundbegriff. 4 )--- stessier --- LordMortis --- RMC --- triggercut
( RMC……………. 2 )--- BB2112 --- Vorret
( )---
( )---

Deaths
Scoop…………. Stoned (N-0)
No death (D-1)
No death (N-1)
Newcastle…… couldn't take it anymore (D-2)
Chaosraven… blown (N-2)
tru1cy…………. poked (N-2)
Holman……….. Oops(D-3)
El Guapo…….. No head(N-3)
Unagi………….. deactivated (D-4)
Remus West.. split(N-4)

Majority = 5
Deadline is: August 5th

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:44 am
by Vorret
For some reason now that we're up to N-1 I like RMC more than Grund :?

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:45 am
by Vorret
Why'd you go Grund Trigger?

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:52 am
by Grundbegriff
Remember that game that was lost because someone couldn't bring himself to believe I was Elastic Man?

Same deal here.

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:57 am
by Grundbegriff
By the way-- my usual reaction words are:

Fascinating!

and

Analyzing....

and

Calculating....

Anyone wanna guess, in context, why I uncharacteristically reacted to Unagi with


COGitating

But hey. I'm not offended. Blunders and betrayal are both part of the game.

I know stessier is Leoben, and I know RMC is a liar, so I'm willing turn the screw that way:

 RMC 
 

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:59 am
by triggercut
Vorret wrote:Why'd you go Grund Trigger?
There was simply no triggering event (pardon the pun) for RMC to come out. No one was voting for him, he's on no one's radar, nothing.

Unagi says he's Athena because we keep running him up to N-1 or close to it. Again and again.

Grundbegriff says he's Athena because RMC fingered him as Cylon.

Why'd RMC come out? I just don't see it.

And I will admit, RMC's scans are pure hot, buttered garbage...but man. If you're spoofing Athena, you're going to be able to be a lot more clever, right? You're going to know who's on the goodguy roster, so if you're going to make up "People who I scanned that can say 'Why yes, that's right, I AM a goodguy!'" you're going to do it from a pool that includes...well, players like me.

In other words, you're going to give us a list that looks like Grundbegriff's. A spoofer's list wouldn't be nearly as inducing of "you gotta be effin' kidding me" nonsense as RMC's.

For me it comes down to this:

RMC is a good player, but he's a guy who--in my limited experience--doesn't try to pull off gigantic, magnificent gesture plays. If you are coming out as a Seer, naming another player as a Cylon, giving us a list of scans that are terribly unverifiable and coincidentally all dead is an insane high wire act that doesn't seem in RMC's style. Well. Cylons were in the lead here. There's no need for RMC to come out at all. If he decided "I'm just going to spoof Athena, and then I'm going to give the most un-trustworthy list of scans you've ever seen" that just seems so implausible to me.

In fact, if you were going to spoof Athena, there's a good chance that unless it was an emergency spoof--like Unagi's or Grund's (appears to be)--you'd consult with your fellow toasters to come up with your list of scan targets, no? Can you imagine RMC going to his Toaster Teammates and saying "OK guys. I'm going to spoof Athena. And, here's the scan list I'm going to give them!" And now can you imagine the other members of Team Toaster saying "Yes, those scan targets seem incredibly plausible and will make everyone believe you're Athena. I see no concerns with them, go ahead!"

No way.

RMC's telling the truth.

Grundbegriff isn't.

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:04 am
by Vorret
Good point .... man this sucks, I still somewhat believe both of them are evil and we're being played in some epic fashion but it makes sense that RMC who wasn't being targeted by anyone to come out makes no sense if he's a Cylon ... Grund makes some kind of sense since he was accused by RMC ...

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:04 am
by Grundbegriff
There was simply no triggering event (pardon the pun) for RMC to come out. No one was voting for him, he's on no one's radar, nothing.

Unagi says he's Athena because we keep running him up to N-1 or close to it. Again and again.

Grundbegriff says he's Athena because RMC fingered him as Cylon.

Why'd RMC come out? I just don't see it.
Weird stuff happens. Most people don't play a perfect game. And since he's a Cylon, we don't know what lines of thinking on CyChat might've prompted the move.

Humans aren't wholly logical.

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:06 am
by Vorret
Gut instinct time

 WD RMC 
 


I never get to kill anyone so ... hopefully I don't lose us the game

 Grund 
 

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:07 am
by bb2112
triggercut wrote: RMC is a good player, but he's a guy who--in my limited experience--doesn't try to pull off gigantic, magnificent gesture plays. If you are coming out as a Seer, naming another player as a Cylon, giving us a list of scans that are terribly unverifiable and coincidentally all dead is an insane high wire act that doesn't seem in RMC's style. Well. Cylons were in the lead here. There's no need for RMC to come out at all. If he decided "I'm just going to spoof Athena, and then I'm going to give the most un-trustworthy list of scans you've ever seen" that just seems so implausible to me.
You obviously did not play with RMC when he claimed Red Rocket or when he was Mara Jade. He has made insane claims before in the attempt to get people to believe him by using the exact same logic you are now. His scans are over the top bad. So bad that it is approaching winning the lotto kind of odds bad. I still wish someone with a better head for stats than me would calculate the odds. And who in their right mind would scan Scoop and Newcastle in their first two scans?

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:08 am
by bb2112
Vorret wrote:Gut instinct time

 WD RMC 
 


I never get to kill anyone so ... hopefully I don't lose us the game

 Grund 
 
Fuck. I sure hope you guys are right and I am wrong.

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:13 am
by triggercut
bb2112 wrote:
triggercut wrote: And who in their right mind would scan Scoop and Newcastle in their first two scans?
And on the Toaster forum, if someone said "Screw it, I'm spoofing Athena, and naming Scoop and Newscastle as my first two scans," you don't think the other Cylons would all be "lolwut?"

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:18 am
by bb2112
triggercut wrote:
bb2112 wrote:
triggercut wrote: And who in their right mind would scan Scoop and Newcastle in their first two scans?
And on the Toaster forum, if someone said "Screw it, I'm spoofing Athena, and naming Scoop and Newscastle as my first two scans," you don't think the other Cylons would all be "lolwut?"
Unless that is exactly what he was going for.

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:18 am
by Grundbegriff
I'd endorse it. But then, I like grand gestures.

gg

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:19 am
by bb2112
Shit.

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:22 am
by Vorret
Means nothing until we get a write up

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 10:24 am
by triggercut
Ah well. Smartly played then, RMC.

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:12 am
by stessier
Okay, so it's not that RMC is more believable, it's that Grund is much, much less believable.

Grund was accused by RMC and had time to post twice (and edit a post) before he dropped his scans - Chaos, Remus, Trig, and El Guapo.

Before he "came out", Grund posted very very little, so there's not a lot to go on. But let's dig in anyway.

On Day 1 - Moliere's Lynch - he knew Chaos was good. All he posted was a picture of someone fishing with bread - looking for a toaster. No vote.
On Day 2 - Newcastle's Lynch - he knew Chaos and Remus. His first vote in the game was against Unagi. He eventually withdrew and joined on Newcastle. A couple of strategy posts this time.
On Day 3 - Unagi's claim / Holman's lynch - he knew Chaos (who was dead), Remus, and Trig. He jokingly claimed Leoben and jumped in as the 6th vote on Unagi before backing off and note voting for Holman.

So, Seer Grund has 2 Villager scans and knowledge of a Cylon. He's only voted 3 times - twice for the Cylon and once for Newcastle. He says that he feared Unagi was Doral and that's why he said nothing. He says the early Unagi votes were keeping his head down. He said he didn't know he was tweaking a Cylon - which was true until Unagi revealed - at which point he very much should have realized what he had done.

Essentially, he wasn't playing like the Seer until he was forced into claiming it. He's worried about being outed or killed by Villagers. When confronted with Unagi, he didn't come out and create a challenge even though resolving the challenge was our last miss. He didn't have his scans handy but had plenty of time to edit posts. He's simply hasn't thought Good thoughts. He should be the choice today.


Again - this doesn't mean I trust RMC. If RMC is a zero on a 0-100 scale, though, Grund is a -100.

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:15 am
by stessier
Hahaha - and I didn't even need to have bothered. Tomorrow will be interesting.

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:28 am
by RMC
Games not over. I am Athena.

BB if you are Starbuck then for the love of god protect me.

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:28 am
by triggercut
stessier wrote:Hahaha - and I didn't even need to have bothered. Tomorrow will be interesting.
OK, but so wait.

We're at 8 players right now. If Grund is Athena as he continues to claim even after being condemned, then we're at 7 players, and 3 are badguys.

They kill at night and don't miss, and we're at 6 and it's game over, no?

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:30 am
by triggercut
So next fun problem: if we execute a real Athena or fake Athena, all we're told as humble willagers is that we've executed a Cylon, no?

Or are we given the alignment?

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:31 am
by stessier
triggercut wrote:
stessier wrote:Hahaha - and I didn't even need to have bothered. Tomorrow will be interesting.
OK, but so wait.

We're at 8 players right now. If Grund is Athena as he continues to claim even after being condemned, then we're at 7 players, and 3 are badguys.

They kill at night and don't miss, and we're at 6 and it's game over, no?
Indeed, if he is Athena, we lose. But I have a special insight - he says he scanned me as Evil and I know I am not. So I know Tomorrow will most assuredly come. YMMV of course. :)

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:32 am
by stessier
triggercut wrote:So next fun problem: if we execute a real Athena or fake Athena, all we're told as humble willagers is that we've executed a Cylon, no?

Or are we given the alignment?
No alignment, just "Cylon". We're out of misses, though, so it'll be pretty obvious.

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:35 am
by triggercut
IWantToBelieve.gif

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:37 am
by Vorret
No matter what Grund will come back Cylon so we'll need to wait for the night kill to know if we're still okay or not.

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:38 am
by Grundbegriff
Image

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:42 am
by Grundbegriff
triggercut wrote:
stessier wrote:Hahaha - and I didn't even need to have bothered. Tomorrow will be interesting.
OK, but so wait.

We're at 8 players right now. If Grund is Athena as he continues to claim even after being condemned, then we're at 7 players, and 3 are badguys.

They kill at night and don't miss, and we're at 6 and it's game over, no?
Not if Starbuck wins chicken tonight.

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:22 pm
by bb2112
Grundbegriff wrote:
triggercut wrote:
stessier wrote:Hahaha - and I didn't even need to have bothered. Tomorrow will be interesting.
OK, but so wait.

We're at 8 players right now. If Grund is Athena as he continues to claim even after being condemned, then we're at 7 players, and 3 are badguys.

They kill at night and don't miss, and we're at 6 and it's game over, no?
Not if Starbuck wins chicken tonight.
Yeah, we still have a chance, but a small one. I have to pick the right person and the cylons will go completely off reservation to ensure I don't.

And hey, Grund did not explode, so at the very least we do know he is not Doral.

Re: BSG X -Eden -Day 3

Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:23 pm
by bb2112
stessier wrote:Okay, so it's not that RMC is more believable, it's that Grund is much, much less believable.

Grund was accused by RMC and had time to post twice (and edit a post) before he dropped his scans - Chaos, Remus, Trig, and El Guapo.

Before he "came out", Grund posted very very little, so there's not a lot to go on. But let's dig in anyway.

On Day 1 - Moliere's Lynch - he knew Chaos was good. All he posted was a picture of someone fishing with bread - looking for a toaster. No vote.
On Day 2 - Newcastle's Lynch - he knew Chaos and Remus. His first vote in the game was against Unagi. He eventually withdrew and joined on Newcastle. A couple of strategy posts this time.
On Day 3 - Unagi's claim / Holman's lynch - he knew Chaos (who was dead), Remus, and Trig. He jokingly claimed Leoben and jumped in as the 6th vote on Unagi before backing off and note voting for Holman.

So, Seer Grund has 2 Villager scans and knowledge of a Cylon. He's only voted 3 times - twice for the Cylon and once for Newcastle. He says that he feared Unagi was Doral and that's why he said nothing. He says the early Unagi votes were keeping his head down. He said he didn't know he was tweaking a Cylon - which was true until Unagi revealed - at which point he very much should have realized what he had done.

Essentially, he wasn't playing like the Seer until he was forced into claiming it. He's worried about being outed or killed by Villagers. When confronted with Unagi, he didn't come out and create a challenge even though resolving the challenge was our last miss. He didn't have his scans handy but had plenty of time to edit posts. He's simply hasn't thought Good thoughts. He should be the choice today.


Again - this doesn't mean I trust RMC. If RMC is a zero on a 0-100 scale, though, Grund is a -100.
And Unagi did not want to add you to the list of people that like law and order. :D