Octopus Overlords

Or not maybe it's a bad idea

 Grundbegriff 
 

triggercut wrote: Grundbegriff 
 

Yeah, let's shoot that guy!
 Grundbegriff 
 

Actually,  withdraw Grundbegriff 
 


I'll cast my vote with what the potentially trusted folks say.

Yep. Trig is MM, I was contacted, and I have not been converted.

I'm okay with Grund (and I have not been converted).

But I'm curious, if I had been (or Stess) could we have used the shot anyway?

Knowns:
Vorret - Hawkwoman
stessier - Hawkman
Unagi - Wonder Woman
Triggercut - MM
El Guapo - normal
lassr-Normal

Unknowns:
Grundbegriff----well looky here
moliere --------- at the bad guys
bb2112 ---------- exposed

with 1 conversion possible in the group at top.

Go through these three and see if the game ends.

and I just realized that there could be as few as 2 bad guys, I was thinking 3 was the minimum, so 1 of those three could be a normal.

Vorret wrote:I'm okay with Grund (and I have not been converted).

But I'm curious, if I had been (or Stess) could we have used the shot anyway?

I believe so, yes. My understanding is that the heroes would retain their role / status / powers. So Hawk(wo)man would retain their ability to shoot (or more precisely, to post in the thread activating wonder-hawk powers), Martian Manhunter would retain his ability / imperative to mind-meld, etc.

So any of you, stessier, Triggercut, or Unagi are (all else equal) are still possible conversion targets. Use of powers does not by itself prove anything about current alignment.

In case you were thinking that we would get some reliable information this game.

triggercut wrote:Actually,  withdraw Grundbegriff 
 


I'll cast my vote with what the potentially trusted folks say.

Aren't you on that list too?

I keep looking for some logic path to prove anything and keep coming up empty. I know me and I know you and Vorret started the game good. Beyond that...

I don't know how I feel about lynching Grund today. If he really thought you were MM, he should have been trying to kill you at Night. Of course, he might just have been picking up a general Special feel and trying to get you lynched for that. I could vote for him, but I don't know if I feel great about it.

Either way, though, we should hear what he has to say. He hasn't posted this Day at all, has he?

As for the others, Moliere is a fan of torches and posting when people threaten the Silent Ones. BB2112 was happy to lynch Lassr today - which I'm still not sure I understand. Anyway we can lynch all 3 and let Chaos sort them out??

Actually, would the Wolves EVER try to convert MM if they knew him? They would try to kill him, right? Because two deaths are way better than a converted hidden MM that any contact could name at any time leading to an awkward "why didn't he die" question.

But then I come back to RMC's Red Rocket play and anything being possible.

But you have to stand for something or you'll fall for anything...so I'll go with Trig is Unconverted. Now where does that lead...

Lassr wrote:and I just realized that there could be as few as 2 bad guys, I was thinking 3 was the minimum, so 1 of those three could be a normal.

Technically there could be as few as 1 bad guys. If we started with two, AND the lack of a night kill was a protection rather than a conversion, AND if RMC was in fact a villain, then we could be left with a lone villain currently.

Of course, that's exceptionally unlikely, but it's possible, FWIW.

Lassr wrote:and I just realized that there could be as few as 2 bad guys, I was thinking 3 was the minimum, so 1 of those three could be a normal.

more so, if RMC just didn't have the time to make some elaborate claim when he was at N-1, and just went for the 'Normal' claim - as a Villain, it's possible there is just 1 wolf out there, actually.

Personally, I'm thinking Moliere now, with the pitchforks - and how he seems to come when summoned.
Bb2112 is good enough to do this, for sure, but his recent contribute feels legit on some level, could be a miss. Curious to hear from him.
Grund is a toss up for me, he's playing a 180 from last game, but that's just how he'd do it. Also curious to hear from him.
So, I wouldn't debate hard against Grund really. Could be all 3, right?

 withdraw bb2112 
 


<preview> - what El Guapo said...

I prefer Moliere to grund, he's silent-er than he usually is I'd say.

I agree BB seems too helpful to be a wolf , for now anyway.

El Guapo wrote:

Lassr wrote:and I just realized that there could be as few as 2 bad guys, I was thinking 3 was the minimum, so 1 of those three could be a normal.

Technically there could be as few as 1 bad guys. If we started with two, AND the lack of a night kill was a protection rather than a conversion, AND if RMC was in fact a villain, then we could be left with a lone villain currently.

Of course, that's exceptionally unlikely, but it's possible, FWIW.

Doh, that is right.

VOTES
0 Vorret -----------
3 Grundbegriff ------ el guapo, lassr, moliere
0 El Guapo -------
0 triggercut ------
0 moliere ---------
0 stessier
0 lassr
0 bb2112 ----------
0 unagi ------------

------------
Majority is Five

 Moliere 
 

Lassr wrote:Knowns:
Vorret - Hawkwoman
stessier - Hawkman
Unagi - Wonder Woman
Triggercut - MM
El Guapo - normal
lassr-Normal

Unknowns:
Grundbegriff----well looky here
moliere --------- at the bad guys
bb2112 ---------- exposed

with 1 conversion possible in the group at top.

Go through these three and see if the game ends.

Night / Day	Knowns	Unkowns	Notes
Today	7	2	Grund Gets Pitchforked in the Face
Tonight	6	2	WW Buys the Farm
Tomorrow	6	1	Moliere Bites the Big One
Tomorrow Night	5	1	Someone Other Than MM Gets Offed
Next Day	5	0	bb Makes the Ulitmate Sacrifice
Next Night	4	0	Some Other Shlob Bites It

If Lassr is evil and converted MM, game over. We lose.

Night / Day	Knowns	Unkowns	Notes
Today	7	2	Grund Gets Pitchforked in the Face
Tonight	6	2	WW Buys the Farm
Tomorrow	6	1	Moliere Bites the Big One
Tomorrow Night	5	0	MM Gets Offed While Talking to bb - so sad

If the game is not over then a conversion of one of the knowns happened. Should mean only 1 bad guy left in the 5. MM wasn't converted which means Lassr is most likely good. And assuming Unagi is dead, then El G is most likely good since a conversion did take place the night Unagi protected him. Good shot to win.

[tcell]Next Day[/tcell][tcell]4[/tcell][tcell]0[/tcell][tcell]Moliere Bites It[/tcell]

Night / Day	Knowns	Unkowns	Notes
Today	6	3	Lassr Gets Pitchforked in the Face and is Good
Tonight	5	3	WW Buys the Farm
Tomorrow	5	2	Grund Bites the Big One
Tomorrow Night	4	1	MM Gets Offed While Talking to bb - so sad

If the game is not over this would mean only 1 bad guy left with 4 players. Good chance to win. Also gives a chance for MM to talk to a bad guy on the night he gets killed taking said bad guy with him.
[tcell]Next Day[/tcell][tcell]4[/tcell][tcell]0[/tcell][tcell]Moliere Bites It[/tcell]

Night / Day	Knowns	Unkowns	Notes
Today	6	3	Lassr Gets Pitchforked in the Face and is Bad
Tonight	5	3	WW Buys the Farm
Tomorrow	5	2	Grund Bites the Big One
Tomorrow Night	4	1	MM Gets Offed While Talking to bb - so sad

If the game is not over still only 1 bad guy left with 4 players

Somebody check my math. OO blew up twice while I was writing out those tables and I got a little frustrated and might have messed something up. If my math holds up, then Lassr is the safe play today.

I'm normal. Now we know why triggercut was engaged more/early.

 Moliere 
 

Grundbegriff wrote:I'm normal. Now we know why triggercut was engaged more/early.

 Moliere 
 

Yeah, shoot that guy!


Wait. What?

VOTES
0 Vorret -----------
3 Grundbegriff ------ el guapo, lassr, moliere
0 El Guapo -------
0 triggercut ------
2 moliere --------- vorret. grundbegriff
0 stessier
0 lassr
0 bb2112 ----------
0 unagi ------------

------------
Majority is Five

 Moliere 
 

 Moliere 
 

Don't lynch me. I'm normal.

I can get on board with Moliere.

Man, I never get to do a good newcastling. Here goes...

 withdraw Grundbegriff

Moliere 
 

So am I. We could go with BB2112's plan and lynch me.

or we could just finish off Moliere and see what happens. The route I prefer.

I very strongly suspect that we are about to discover that Moliere was exactly as he claimed himself to be: a mere regular normie.

Thanks guys. I'm glad I spent all that time putting together those charts everyone ignored.

bb2112 wrote:Thanks guys. I'm glad I spent all that time putting together those charts everyone ignored.

I wasn't home so I'm not responsible, I only put the first vote on him!

triggercut wrote:I very strongly suspect that we are about to discover that Moliere was exactly as he claimed himself to be: a mere regular normie.

Why 'very strongly' ?
I'm half expecting 'Joker'

bb2112 wrote:Thanks guys. I'm glad I spent all that time putting together those charts everyone ignored.

I didn't follow them, in as that they seemed entirely focused on Lassr as the convert, and I didn't understand why that was such a huge 'prospect'. I also don't fully trust you, and it seemed a little like a ploy to force a miss.

bb2112 wrote:Thanks guys. I'm glad I spent all that time putting together those charts everyone ignored.

I didn't ignore it, I just wasn't about to start a vote on myself. That would have told me nothing.

Moliere at least gets me more info on whether there was a conversion or did Unagi protect El Guapo on night 2.

Lassr wrote: Moliere at least gets me more info on whether there was a conversion or did Unagi protect El Guapo on night 2.

I don't follow that last part.

Unagi wrote:

Lassr wrote: Moliere at least gets me more info on whether there was a conversion or did Unagi protect El Guapo on night 2.

I don't follow that last part.

I can guarantee that Unagi did not protect me on night 2, since that hasn't happened yet (but it is about to).

Unagi wrote:

bb2112 wrote:Thanks guys. I'm glad I spent all that time putting together those charts everyone ignored.

I didn't follow them, in as that they seemed entirely focused on Lassr as the convert, and I didn't understand why that was such a huge 'prospect'. I also don't fully trust you, and it seemed a little like a ploy to force a miss.

It is ok you don't trust me. As a matter of fact in every scenario I lay out I am killed. And I should be. I'm one of the shortlist of unknowns. All I'm saying is if there was a conversion of a known, that is the only way for us to lose. The most likely conversion scenario is MM contacted a villain on night 0 and was converted on night 1. Testing Lassr eliminates this theory and you can still get rid of all the unknowns and we win. If Lassr is evil and did convert MM, then by getting rid of all the unknowns we will lose.

If you guys don't want my help because I am under too much suspicion as being one of the unknowns, then I will just shut up and wait for the axe to fall. I was just trying to increase the odds of a good guy win.

Lassr wrote:

bb2112 wrote:Thanks guys. I'm glad I spent all that time putting together those charts everyone ignored.

I didn't ignore it, I just wasn't about to start a vote on myself. That would have told me nothing.

Moliere at least gets me more info on whether there was a conversion or did Unagi protect El Guapo on night 2.

I don't follow either part.

bb2112 wrote:

Unagi wrote:

bb2112 wrote:Thanks guys. I'm glad I spent all that time putting together those charts everyone ignored.

I didn't follow them, in as that they seemed entirely focused on Lassr as the convert, and I didn't understand why that was such a huge 'prospect'. I also don't fully trust you, and it seemed a little like a ploy to force a miss.

It is ok you don't trust me. As a matter of fact in every scenario I lay out I am killed. And I should be. I'm one of the shortlist of unknowns. All I'm saying is if there was a conversion of a known, that is the only way for us to lose. The most likely conversion scenario is MM contacted a villain on night 0 and was converted on night 1. Testing Lassr eliminates this theory and you can still get rid of all the unknowns and we win. If Lassr is evil and did convert MM, then by getting rid of all the unknowns we will lose.

If you guys don't want my help because I am under too much suspicion as being one of the unknowns, then I will just shut up and wait for the axe to fall. I was just trying to increase the odds of a good guy win.

See, while the idea that Lassr was Evil (not converted) and MM contacted him on night 0 is possible, and then may lead to the math you wrote up - I seriously doubt that the wolves would pass on making a Double Kill.
By random chance, Lassr could have been converted on Night 1 - same for MM... but I don't think MM would be converted 'by choice'. The double kill is huge, no way that is passed up. Right ?