Re: Trump's Cabinet selection
Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 8:22 am
Keep in mind that my scans do not include Putin nor do the wolves all know each other.
That is not dead which can eternal lie, and with strange aeons bring us some web forums whereupon we can gather
http://www.octopusoverlords.com/forum/
I agree.. reasonable but wrong. The working assumption (a wolf would be willing to finish him off if there were no wolves on the train) was, apparently, wrong.El Guapo wrote: Then there's this. Reasonable analysis as I and others have said. Although at this point Newcastle is dead and the other two listed are claimed specials. So, either PLW was mistaken or one of [PLW, Remus, Scoop] is a wolf.
Though thinking about this some more, it's not obvious that a wolf would want to push Newcastle over the top at this point - Scooping someone before they state their role would be likely to draw unwanted attention to the wolf at issue.
I know, but thanks for the reminder. Also you could be lying, of course.Remus West wrote:Keep in mind that my scans do not include Putin nor do the wolves all know each other.
Yeah, I'm probably going to presume when I vote that the claims are legit. The troublesome part is that both claims have plausible reasons why the wolves would spoof - Scoop was at n-1, and could have spoofed figuring that either he outs Anderson or he gets out of the lynch. Remus came out at the start of today, and a planned spoof at the start of day 3 is a reasonable wolf strategy that Remus likes to use - exposes Jill if he's countered, and by coming out first it makes it more likely that the real Jill gets lynched if she counters.PLW wrote:I agree.. reasonable but wrong. The working assumption (a wolf would be willing to finish him off if there were no wolves on the train) was, apparently, wrong.El Guapo wrote: Then there's this. Reasonable analysis as I and others have said. Although at this point Newcastle is dead and the other two listed are claimed specials. So, either PLW was mistaken or one of [PLW, Remus, Scoop] is a wolf.
Though thinking about this some more, it's not obvious that a wolf would want to push Newcastle over the top at this point - Scooping someone before they state their role would be likely to draw unwanted attention to the wolf at issue.
Note... all of the analysis I've done and I've seen presumes that the claims are legit. They could just be lucky that the actual specials were already dead.
I keep waiting, hoping he would appear. I fear now he is no longer with us. I lean toward believing Remus, just because we don't have much of a choice at this point.Chaosraven wrote: So far no word from Alexander...
If found, Alexander will die from polonium-210 exposure. If Putin selects Alexander as Trump's replacement then team Good immediately wins.
So... why are you waiting and hoping for him to appear, when his stepping forward would destroy our chance as we stand on the knife's edge?Lassr wrote:I keep waiting, hoping he would appear.Chaosraven wrote: So far no word from Alexander...
So if we hit Conway today it will be 4-2. Putin target Alexander (if revealed) and Trump target random and hits. 2-2 we lose. But if Alexander not revealed then Putin is selecting in the dark and may miss.Grundbegriff wrote:Maybe Alexander is alive and figures that it would be foolish to step forward. Putin would certainly choose him tonight, one way or the other, if Putin is alive.
If found, Alexander will die from polonium-210 exposure. If Putin selects Alexander as Trump's replacement then team Good immediately wins.
Lassr wrote:...Conway...Putin target Alexander (if revealed)...2-2 we lose.
...Trump...Putin replaces Trump, but not with Alexander (if revealed)...3-3 and we lose.
...But if Alexander not revealed then Putin is selecting in the dark and may miss.
...But if Alexander not revealed good guys could win if Putin selects wrong.
...Eh, advantages and disadvantages with Alexander reveal....
the advantage is reducing the targets to hit Putin which should be our #1 priority, but a miss screws us. So we have to go for priority #2 and hope for some luck.Grundbegriff wrote:Lassr wrote:...Conway...Putin target Alexander (if revealed)...2-2 we lose.
...Trump...Putin replaces Trump, but not with Alexander (if revealed)...3-3 and we lose.
...But if Alexander not revealed then Putin is selecting in the dark and may miss.
...But if Alexander not revealed good guys could win if Putin selects wrong.
...Eh, advantages and disadvantages with Alexander reveal....
You (correctly) listed only disadvantages to an Alex reveal. So why do you summarize that there are "advantages and disadvantages with Alexander reveal"?
here is the advantage I list, I probably should have reversed the sentences.Lassr wrote: Eh, advantages and disadvantages with Alexander reveal. We really need to hit Putin and Alexander can help but a miss and game over.
We really need to hit Putin and Alexander can help but a miss and game over. Eh, advantages and disadvantages with Alexander reveal.
Nyet.Chaosraven wrote: Lassr as Putin
That being the case, would you or wouldn't you protect yourself first night to avoid being killed before anything happens? Would you or wouldn't you, as Scoop, protect yourself? If you were the bad guys would you or wouldn't you think to try and remove him rather than risk targeting a protected target?The protection can include himself, but never the same person twice.
I thought I remember Moliere clarifying that he couldn't protect same person twice in a row. Now I have to go back and find it...Remus West wrote:Am I the only one concerned that Scoop lived through the night? Cooper can only protect each player once.The protection can include himself, but never the same person twice.
Moliere wrote:In a row.Chaosraven wrote:The protection can include himself, but never the same person twice.
The whole game or in a row?
So, after Scoop's claim Lassr moves his vote to Chaosraven without any explanation.Lassr wrote:think I'll go back to Chaosraven
and that's not the meds talking.
This is PLW following his list / analysis, though it's unclear why killing bb2112 would be an attempt to frame Newcastle as opposed to Remus.PLW wrote:Heading back to my old list, I'm putting my vote on Remus West.
Basically, I think the night kill of bb2112 was a ham-handed attempt to frame Newcastle, so I'm going the other way.
Suppose for the sake of argument that Remus is lying (and therefore a wolf). Makes sense that he would make one of the picks a dead person. Most likely the other two would be one villager one wolf (to give a team mate some credibility without risking connecting the whole wolf team), I would think?Remus West wrote:PLW, Archinerd, Lassr
None of the above are Trump or Conway. That's all I have for you right now. Sadly, the Archinerd part is obvious now.
I'm not following this. Why would Grund agreeing with your vote lead you to conclude both that Grund *and* Chaosraven are bad? With evil seemingly on the verge of victory, wolves would be happy to push any lynch of a villager, right? So if Grund is bad, wouldn't that suggest that Chaosraven is good? Or potentially Putin, since Trumpbegriff would think that ChaosPutin is probably good?Lassr wrote:So I have been thinking about this. As El Guapo states. if we hit Trump then we lose tonight if Putin is still alive. If Putin is alive and everyone is telling the truth then PLW must be Putin, in my eyes because I am not, or we have all 3 bad guys in the top 3.
Grund agreeing with my Chaosraven vote makes me think Grund is indeed one of the bad guys, maybe Chaos is Trump. Is it mentioned anywhere that Putin knows which players are Trump and Conway?
I am thinking it would be nice to know the scans for Trump. We can narrow down our target for today since we do not want to hit Trump.
We are going to need some luck to win this it seems.
Day kills: Scraper, Isgrimnur, Newcastle (NO PUTINS HERE)Grundbegriff wrote:...that this (above) is most likely correct. El Guapo notes that Putin may well be dead; looks like Chaosraven was sensitive to that possibility, too. And both chose to mention it, though with expert subtlety.Chaosraven wrote:(0) El Guapo:
(0) Grundbegriff:
(0) Chaosraven:
===========
(0) Lassr:
(0) PLW:
===========
(0) Scoop20906:
(0) Remus West:
By that claim, Trump and Conway are among the Top Three.
Putin (if Alive) is among the Top Five.
I understand that others will have to assess me (as usual); but (given the odds that Scoop and Remus are playing it straight) for me, it's a matter of figuring out which of these two is Trump and which Conway. Chaosraven has been talking a blue streak, and El Guapo has been eerily silent. I don't see "being in character" as relevant here since TrumpRL and ConwayRL are both bloviators. But if Trump is the selector and Conway is just fluff, which one would they put forward and which would hang back? And would they take our calculation of that sort of thing into account and whip out the iocane?
This doesn't strike me as rationally decidable. My intuition tilts toward El Guapo as hidden Trump and Chaosraven as the mouthpiece, which is pretty much where I started the day.
Yeah I do think that he would probably stay quiet. The only thing is if he scanned both PLW and Lassr, *that* would be pretty useful information, as then we would have a complete scan of two players. Though with the caveat that either scanner could be lying.Grundbegriff wrote:Maybe Alexander is alive and figures that it would be foolish to step forward. Putin would certainly choose him tonight, one way or the other, if Putin is alive.
If found, Alexander will die from polonium-210 exposure. If Putin selects Alexander as Trump's replacement then team Good immediately wins.
Well, they wouldn't *know* that, since Putin could be dead (in which case we're at 5-2, and so not a must hit today). They may be operating under that assumption, though.Lassr wrote:So it doesn't surprise me that you two lived. They knew a hit last night got us down to a must hit today so why risk it.
All the back and forth between them on page 4 that resulted in bb putting Newcastle at N-1. bb seemed to quite convinced that Newcastle was bad and could likely lead a charge against him in the future. Thus, killing him removed one of the most prominent anti-Newcastle voices.El Guapo wrote:This is PLW following his list / analysis, though it's unclear why killing bb2112 would be an attempt to frame Newcastle as opposed to Remus.PLW wrote:Heading back to my old list, I'm putting my vote on Remus West.
Basically, I think the night kill of bb2112 was a ham-handed attempt to frame Newcastle, so I'm going the other way.
I am always leery of Grund when he agrees with me. Dates back many many years ago when Austin and Grund got on my good side and they were both wolves.El Guapo wrote:I'm not following this. Why would Grund agreeing with your vote lead you to conclude both that Grund *and* Chaosraven are bad? With evil seemingly on the verge of victory, wolves would be happy to push any lynch of a villager, right? So if Grund is bad, wouldn't that suggest that Chaosraven is good? Or potentially Putin, since Trumpbegriff would think that ChaosPutin is probably good?Lassr wrote:So I have been thinking about this. As El Guapo states. if we hit Trump then we lose tonight if Putin is still alive. If Putin is alive and everyone is telling the truth then PLW must be Putin, in my eyes because I am not, or we have all 3 bad guys in the top 3.
Grund agreeing with my Chaosraven vote makes me think Grund is indeed one of the bad guys, maybe Chaos is Trump. Is it mentioned anywhere that Putin knows which players are Trump and Conway?
I am thinking it would be nice to know the scans for Trump. We can narrow down our target for today since we do not want to hit Trump.
We are going to need some luck to win this it seems.
? Leave him out of what?Chaosraven wrote:Out of three why does Lassr leave El Guapo out of it?
To be frank, I'm more surprised that you lived through the night.Remus West wrote:Am I the only one concerned that Scoop lived through the night?
OddEl Guapo wrote:Well, they wouldn't *know* that, since Putin could be dead (in which case we're at 5-2, and so not a must hit today). They may be operating under that assumption, though.Lassr wrote:So it doesn't surprise me that you two lived. They knew a hit last night got us down to a must hit today so why risk it.
I remember that. Good times.Lassr wrote:I am always leery of Grund when he agrees with me. Dates back many many years ago when Austin and Grund got on my good side and they were both wolves.
Until this day broke I was just another player with potential to be harmful to the bad guys not a known role. Why would you expect me to be targeted in front of others?Grundbegriff wrote:To be frank, I'm more surprised that you lived through the night.Remus West wrote:Am I the only one concerned that Scoop lived through the night?
Because RemusRemus West wrote:Until this day broke I was just another player with potential to be harmful to the bad guys not a known role. Why would you expect me to be targeted in front of others?Grundbegriff wrote:To be frank, I'm more surprised that you lived through the night.Remus West wrote:Am I the only one concerned that Scoop lived through the night?