Octopus Overlords

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2017 8:22 am**

Keep in mind that my scans do not include Putin nor do the wolves all know each other.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:38 am**

El Guapo wrote: Then there's this. Reasonable analysis as I and others have said. Although at this point Newcastle is dead and the other two listed are claimed specials. So, either PLW was mistaken or one of [PLW, Remus, Scoop] is a wolf.

Though thinking about this some more, it's not obvious that a wolf would want to push Newcastle over the top at this point - Scooping someone before they state their role would be likely to draw unwanted attention to the wolf at issue.

I agree.. reasonable but wrong. The working assumption (a wolf would be willing to finish him off if there were no wolves on the train) was, apparently, wrong.

Note... all of the analysis I've done and I've seen presumes that the claims are legit. They could just be lucky that the actual specials were already dead.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:54 am**

Remus West wrote:Keep in mind that my scans do not include Putin nor do the wolves all know each other.

I know, but thanks for the reminder. Also you could be lying, of course.

Going to finish my re-read sometime today. I have a great strategy, by the way, but I can't say what it is, because that would be giving it away to our enemies.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2017 10:00 am**

PLW wrote:
El Guapo wrote: Then there's this. Reasonable analysis as I and others have said. Although at this point Newcastle is dead and the other two listed are claimed specials. So, either PLW was mistaken or one of [PLW, Remus, Scoop] is a wolf.

Though thinking about this some more, it's not obvious that a wolf would want to push Newcastle over the top at this point - Scooping someone before they state their role would be likely to draw unwanted attention to the wolf at issue.
I agree.. reasonable but wrong. The working assumption (a wolf would be willing to finish him off if there were no wolves on the train) was, apparently, wrong.

Note... all of the analysis I've done and I've seen presumes that the claims are legit. They could just be lucky that the actual specials were already dead.

Yeah, I'm probably going to presume when I vote that the claims are legit. The troublesome part is that both claims have plausible reasons why the wolves would spoof - Scoop was at n-1, and could have spoofed figuring that either he outs Anderson or he gets out of the lynch. Remus came out at the start of today, and a planned spoof at the start of day 3 is a reasonable wolf strategy that Remus likes to use - exposes Jill if he's countered, and by coming out first it makes it more likely that the real Jill gets lynched if she counters.

Also even assuming they're legit, Remus's scans don't really remove his targets as possible lynch choices given the need to find Putin. Though it makes them less attractive.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2017 6:38 pm**

My current issue is that if Scoop and Remus are both telling the truth, you and grund are the main badguys, and putin has to fall within the PLW, lassr, and dead people.

I can see Remus spoofing this as Putin, which really means any of the four of you are the 2 badguys. Pulling this on the day where it means the game is a valid move for a wolf.

So far no word from Alexander...

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2017 10:49 pm**

Chaosraven wrote: So far no word from Alexander...

I keep waiting, hoping he would appear. I fear now he is no longer with us. I lean toward believing Remus, just because we don't have much of a choice at this point.

Remember mara jade! And the last game, or time before, this came back to bite us but just like then we can play the odds and go with what is in front of us or throw it out the window and lynch anyone still alive and see what happens.

I tend to want to lose because of bad luck or the perfect storm than do something stupid and lose...

of course I'd rather win and the odds say to believe Remus and Scoop.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:00 pm**

Maybe Alexander is alive and figures that it would be foolish to step forward. Putin would certainly choose him tonight, one way or the other, if Putin is alive.

If found, Alexander will die from polonium-210 exposure. If Putin selects Alexander as Trump's replacement then team Good immediately wins.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:01 pm**

Lassr wrote:
Chaosraven wrote: So far no word from Alexander...
I keep waiting, hoping he would appear.

So... why are you waiting and hoping for him to appear, when his stepping forward would destroy our chance as we stand on the knife's edge?

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:13 pm**

Grundbegriff wrote:Maybe Alexander is alive and figures that it would be foolish to step forward. Putin would certainly choose him tonight, one way or the other, if Putin is alive.

If found, Alexander will die from polonium-210 exposure. If Putin selects Alexander as Trump's replacement then team Good immediately wins.

So if we hit Conway today it will be 4-2. Putin target Alexander (if revealed) and Trump target random and hits. 2-2 we lose. But if Alexander not revealed then Putin is selecting in the dark and may miss.

If we hit Trump today, Putin replaces Trump, but not with Alexander (if revealed) and Conway cannot kill and back to 3-3 and we lose. But if Alexander not revealed good guys could win if Putin selects wrong.

If we hit Putin today, then Trump just kills tonight. 3-2 tomorrow.

Eh, advantages and disadvantages with Alexander reveal. We really need to hit Putin and Alexander can help but a miss and game over.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:18 pm**

maybe I can just sell my vote to highest bidder.

I think I agree that Alexander sit tight and take our chances hitting Trump and hope Putin chooses wrong or hit Conway and Putin misses the scan.

Hitting Putin may be out of the equation unless he is in that top 3 with the other two. We know now we most likely (playing the odds) have 2 bad guys in a group of 3 to choose from.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:21 pm**

Lassr wrote:...Conway...Putin target Alexander (if revealed)...2-2 we lose.
...Trump...Putin replaces Trump, but not with Alexander (if revealed)...3-3 and we lose.

...But if Alexander not revealed then Putin is selecting in the dark and may miss.
...But if Alexander not revealed good guys could win if Putin selects wrong.

...Eh, advantages and disadvantages with Alexander reveal....

You (correctly) listed only disadvantages to an Alex reveal. So why do you summarize that there are "advantages and disadvantages with Alexander reveal"?

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:25 pm**

Grundbegriff wrote:
Lassr wrote:...Conway...Putin target Alexander (if revealed)...2-2 we lose.
...Trump...Putin replaces Trump, but not with Alexander (if revealed)...3-3 and we lose.

...But if Alexander not revealed then Putin is selecting in the dark and may miss.
...But if Alexander not revealed good guys could win if Putin selects wrong.

...Eh, advantages and disadvantages with Alexander reveal....

You (correctly) listed only disadvantages to an Alex reveal. So why do you summarize that there are "advantages and disadvantages with Alexander reveal"?

the advantage is reducing the targets to hit Putin which should be our #1 priority, but a miss screws us. So we have to go for priority #2 and hope for some luck.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:28 pm**

Lassr wrote: Eh, advantages and disadvantages with Alexander reveal. We really need to hit Putin and Alexander can help but a miss and game over.

here is the advantage I list, I probably should have reversed the sentences.

We really need to hit Putin and Alexander can help but a miss and game over. Eh, advantages and disadvantages with Alexander reveal.

Posted: **Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:42 pm**

I see. Missed that, or rather didn't see the connection.

You mean that if Alexander steps forward, the number of people who could possibly be Putin is smaller and maybe we can deduce who it is.

I guess the problem there is that if both are alive and Alex steps forward, Putin (if feeling threatened by the math) could also claim to be Alex. Then we'd end up in one of those 50/50 things.

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:15 am**

The more Lassr misspeaks the more I begin to think of him as Putin.

My prediction is:
Grund as Trump
El Guap as Conway
Lassr as Putin

Dead Guy as Alexander

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:18 am**

Figure only 3 of the 5 list are potentially alex.

And who would he have scanned?
If it fell as PLW/Lassr/Myself and we had scanned one of the others, it'd be a lock.

"Hey, I am Alex and I scanned (other), so the 3 bad guys are El G, Grund and (remaining)"

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:19 am**

hey I am glad I came up with that before somebody tried it.

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:11 am**

Chaosraven wrote: Lassr as Putin

Nyet.

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:25 am**

Am I the only one concerned that Scoop lived through the night? Cooper can only protect each player once.

The protection can include himself, but never the same person twice.

That being the case, would you or wouldn't you protect yourself first night to avoid being killed before anything happens? Would you or wouldn't you, as Scoop, protect yourself? If you were the bad guys would you or wouldn't you think to try and remove him rather than risk targeting a protected target?

In case Scoop is real he should not reveal his protections (due to the limit of once per person) but I found myself thinking that if I were a bad guy I would have targeted Scoop last night. So, why did Archinerd get chosen instead if Scoop is being honest?

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:36 am**

Remus West wrote:Am I the only one concerned that Scoop lived through the night? Cooper can only protect each player once.
The protection can include himself, but never the same person twice.

I thought I remember Moliere clarifying that he couldn't protect same person twice in a row. Now I have to go back and find it...

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:39 am**

Moliere wrote:
Chaosraven wrote:The protection can include himself, but never the same person twice.
The whole game or in a row?
In a row.

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:40 am**

So it doesn't surprise me that you two lived. They knew a hit last night got us down to a must hit today so why risk it.

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:41 am**

Lassr wrote:think I'll go back to Chaosraven

and that's not the meds talking.

So, after Scoop's claim Lassr moves his vote to Chaosraven without any explanation.

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:47 am**

PLW wrote:Heading back to my old list, I'm putting my vote on Remus West.

Basically, I think the night kill of bb2112 was a ham-handed attempt to frame Newcastle, so I'm going the other way.

This is PLW following his list / analysis, though it's unclear why killing bb2112 would be an attempt to frame Newcastle as opposed to Remus.

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:26 am**

Remus West wrote:PLW, Archinerd, Lassr

None of the above are Trump or Conway. That's all I have for you right now. Sadly, the Archinerd part is obvious now.

Suppose for the sake of argument that Remus is lying (and therefore a wolf). Makes sense that he would make one of the picks a dead person. Most likely the other two would be one villager one wolf (to give a team mate some credibility without risking connecting the whole wolf team), I would think?

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:43 am**

Lassr wrote:So I have been thinking about this. As El Guapo states. if we hit Trump then we lose tonight if Putin is still alive. If Putin is alive and everyone is telling the truth then PLW must be Putin, in my eyes because I am not, or we have all 3 bad guys in the top 3.

Grund agreeing with my Chaosraven vote makes me think Grund is indeed one of the bad guys, maybe Chaos is Trump. Is it mentioned anywhere that Putin knows which players are Trump and Conway?

I am thinking it would be nice to know the scans for Trump. We can narrow down our target for today since we do not want to hit Trump.

We are going to need some luck to win this it seems.

I'm not following this. Why would Grund agreeing with your vote lead you to conclude both that Grund *and* Chaosraven are bad? With evil seemingly on the verge of victory, wolves would be happy to push any lynch of a villager, right? So if Grund is bad, wouldn't that suggest that Chaosraven is good? Or potentially Putin, since Trumpbegriff would think that ChaosPutin is probably good?

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:02 am**

Grundbegriff wrote:
Chaosraven wrote:(0) El Guapo:
(0) Grundbegriff:
(0) Chaosraven:
===========
(0) Lassr:
(0) PLW:
===========
(0) Scoop20906:
(0) Remus West:

By that claim, Trump and Conway are among the Top Three.
Putin (if Alive) is among the Top Five.
...that this (above) is most likely correct. El Guapo notes that Putin may well be dead; looks like Chaosraven was sensitive to that possibility, too. And both chose to mention it, though with expert subtlety.

I understand that others will have to assess me (as usual); but (given the odds that Scoop and Remus are playing it straight) for me, it's a matter of figuring out which of these two is Trump and which Conway. Chaosraven has been talking a blue streak, and El Guapo has been eerily silent. I don't see "being in character" as relevant here since TrumpRL and ConwayRL are both bloviators. But if Trump is the selector and Conway is just fluff, which one would they put forward and which would hang back? And would they take our calculation of that sort of thing into account and whip out the iocane?

This doesn't strike me as rationally decidable. My intuition tilts toward El Guapo as hidden Trump and Chaosraven as the mouthpiece, which is pretty much where I started the day.

Day kills: Scraper, Isgrimnur, Newcastle (NO PUTINS HERE)
Night kills: RMC, bb2112, Archinerd* (COULD BE PUTIN ON THE RITZ)
Alive: Chaosraven, El Guapo, Grundbegriff, Lassr*, PLW*, __Remus, __sCoop

For what it's worth Putin *could* be dead, but he's probably still alive. We know that we've lynched three villagers. Trump and Conway know that they're not Putin (though Trump may be a little confused about this). So Trump's three kills are out of a pool of eight people who could be Poutine. Obviously they're going to shy away from people that they think might be Putin, so they might move the needle slightly in their favor, but in any event they *probably* haven't killed Putin, though the risk of hitting him is significant.

Also I think impacts who they would pick to take a more aggressive role. On the one hand you could have Trump be more aggressive / risk-taking figuring that if he gets offed then he can be replaced. But on the other hand without knowing whether you've killed Putin you risk game over if the villagers hit Trump and you've accidentally killed Putin. So on balance I would think that they would pick Conway as the lead / aggressive wolf.

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:12 am**

Grundbegriff wrote:Maybe Alexander is alive and figures that it would be foolish to step forward. Putin would certainly choose him tonight, one way or the other, if Putin is alive.

If found, Alexander will die from polonium-210 exposure. If Putin selects Alexander as Trump's replacement then team Good immediately wins.

Yeah I do think that he would probably stay quiet. The only thing is if he scanned both PLW and Lassr, *that* would be pretty useful information, as then we would have a complete scan of two players. Though with the caveat that either scanner could be lying.

Short of that, it's hard to see how Alexander coming forward is worth giving up him as a landmine, if nothing else. Like, suppose Putin is still alive - we're at 4 good 3 evil. If we lynch Trump, we're at 4 good, 2 evil. Putin selects Trump's replacement, which would result in a Team Evil win (3 good 3 evil), EXCEPT that if Alexander is still alive that's a 25% chance of a Team Good win. So that's pretty significant.

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:19 am**

Lassr wrote:So it doesn't surprise me that you two lived. They knew a hit last night got us down to a must hit today so why risk it.

Well, they wouldn't *know* that, since Putin could be dead (in which case we're at 5-2, and so not a must hit today). They may be operating under that assumption, though.

In any event, you figure Scoop's protections (if he's telling the truth), are:

Night 1 - Scoop
Night 2 - El Guapo, because he is so handsome and funny that it would be too big a risk losing him from the game.
Night 3 - Scoop.

So, it makes all the sense in the world that the wolves would avoid targeting Scoop last night, since that's the most probable way to hit protection.

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:32 am**

(0) El Guapo:
(0) Grundbegriff:
(0) Chaosraven:
===========
(0) Lassr:
(0) PLW:
===========
(0) Scoop20906:
(0) Remus West:

So, if Remus and Scoop are telling the truth, since I know I'm good, then the lineup is Grund + Chaosraven as Trump and Conway, and Putin among Lassr / PLW / 3 night kills. Question then is whether we lynch Grund / Chaosraven, and hope that either Putin is already dead or he hits Alexander, OR we fish for Putin. Neither choice is especially appetizing. I guess in this situation I would vote for Grund or Chaosraven, because absent particular intelligence Putin could be any of five people, which isn't great odds. Also if we hit Conway then we're still good even if Putin is still alive, as we would then be at 4 - 2, and Putin can't convert, so we'd be at 3-2 (assuming no protection).

So, we would only lose on a lynch of Trump / Conway IF: (1) we hit Trump rather than Conway; (2) Putin is still alive; AND (3) Putin does not pick Alexander.

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:38 am**

If Remus is lying then the lineup is probably:

Remus - Conway
Lassr - Trump
Putin - god knows. Grund, maybe.

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:57 am**

El Guapo wrote:
PLW wrote:Heading back to my old list, I'm putting my vote on Remus West.

Basically, I think the night kill of bb2112 was a ham-handed attempt to frame Newcastle, so I'm going the other way.
This is PLW following his list / analysis, though it's unclear why killing bb2112 would be an attempt to frame Newcastle as opposed to Remus.

All the back and forth between them on page 4 that resulted in bb putting Newcastle at N-1. bb seemed to quite convinced that Newcastle was bad and could likely lead a charge against him in the future. Thus, killing him removed one of the most prominent anti-Newcastle voices.

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:17 pm**

El Guapo wrote:
Lassr wrote:So I have been thinking about this. As El Guapo states. if we hit Trump then we lose tonight if Putin is still alive. If Putin is alive and everyone is telling the truth then PLW must be Putin, in my eyes because I am not, or we have all 3 bad guys in the top 3.

Grund agreeing with my Chaosraven vote makes me think Grund is indeed one of the bad guys, maybe Chaos is Trump. Is it mentioned anywhere that Putin knows which players are Trump and Conway?

I am thinking it would be nice to know the scans for Trump. We can narrow down our target for today since we do not want to hit Trump.

We are going to need some luck to win this it seems.
I'm not following this. Why would Grund agreeing with your vote lead you to conclude both that Grund *and* Chaosraven are bad? With evil seemingly on the verge of victory, wolves would be happy to push any lynch of a villager, right? So if Grund is bad, wouldn't that suggest that Chaosraven is good? Or potentially Putin, since Trumpbegriff would think that ChaosPutin is probably good?

I am always leery of Grund when he agrees with me. Dates back many many years ago when Austin and Grund got on my good side and they were both wolves.

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 5:41 pm**

Out of three why does Lassr leave El Guapo out of it?

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 6:41 pm**

Chaosraven wrote:Out of three why does Lassr leave El Guapo out of it?

? Leave him out of what?

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 7:25 pm**

Remus West wrote:Am I the only one concerned that Scoop lived through the night?

To be frank, I'm more surprised that you lived through the night.

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 7:31 pm**

El Guapo wrote:
Lassr wrote:So it doesn't surprise me that you two lived. They knew a hit last night got us down to a must hit today so why risk it.
Well, they wouldn't *know* that, since Putin could be dead (in which case we're at 5-2, and so not a must hit today). They may be operating under that assumption, though.

Odd

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 7:34 pm**

Lassr wrote:I am always leery of Grund when he agrees with me. Dates back many many years ago when Austin and Grund got on my good side and they were both wolves.

I remember that. Good times.

My agreeing with you is incidental. It was easier to quote your message on my iPhone than to type it out myself.

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 7:37 pm**

Grundbegriff wrote:
Remus West wrote:Am I the only one concerned that Scoop lived through the night?
To be frank, I'm more surprised that you lived through the night.

Until this day broke I was just another player with potential to be harmful to the bad guys not a known role. Why would you expect me to be targeted in front of others?

Posted: **Thu Jan 26, 2017 7:38 pm**

Remus West wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Remus West wrote:Am I the only one concerned that Scoop lived through the night?
To be frank, I'm more surprised that you lived through the night.
Until this day broke I was just another player with potential to be harmful to the bad guys not a known role. Why would you expect me to be targeted in front of others?

Because Remus

Octopus Overlords

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