Star Wars - The Empire's Challenge - Game Over

[El Guapo]

So Unagi has made a number of posts over the course of the game that have raised my suspicions. Ideally I would go back through them vs. RMC posts, but that's not going to happen before 8 pm EDT, and stessier continues to slack off from his role as my OO intern. Unagi would also yield more information than RMC (even if he turns out to be a miss).

On the other hand a wolf Unagi was on the tru1cy vote before it took off fully. For a wolf Unagi, knowing that tru1cy was a miss, you'd think the safe play would be to remain mostly quiet and on the vote, rather than do a very public song and dance up against the deadline. UNLESS the play was "maybe we get a missed lynch, and if not next day I can say 'hey guys, I tried to lead you away from a miss!'"

[El Guapo]

Have you not been following my MO this game?

[Isgrimnur]

Feel free to get a train started:

[El Guapo]

I appreciate the hat, but I'm not ready to 'go there' with you just yet (especially on a deadline day).

[Punisher]

I am going to wait for my vote this time to see if RMC or Unagi (or someone else here) can swing me one way or the other...
Not sure I am liking the reason for RMC though...
I was targeted a bit in the beginning for talking a lot it seemed, now he is targeted for not talking enough... I feel like Goldilocks...
But I still don't know how anyone plays and don't have a lot of solid info, so many of my votes are a shot in the dark.. The bad thing about that is that with the higher number of goods, odds are that we will be lynching a good..
Anyone know what the typical break even point is in game days where evils start getting wacked by blind luck? Does a lot of it become obvious at some point or are we all blind until end of game?

[Isgrimnur]

This game has been relatively light on reveals. Normally, we run up about half of the good powereds before lynching someone on day 1. As such, we are in a relatively information-poor environment.

Vader hasn't swung, Dooku hasn't ballot-stuffed, Fett hasn't been on protection detail. And no scanner has come forward with info.

[Lassr]

I think tomorrow will be the day we have reveals especially if we miss today.

I'm not sure how long to give RMC to talk. I'm not sure what his indifference says about him. Villager with no care, bad guy playing it cool. I would think if he was special he would play a little more attention.

I am willing to move back to Unagi. I keep saying his posts have felt wolfish but the night kills do not feel like they have Unagi's fingerprints on them. Then again the night kills could be a devious misleading trick.

[Remus West]

I am going to wait for my vote this time to see if RMC or Unagi (or someone else here) can swing me one way or the other...
Not sure I am liking the reason for RMC though...
I was targeted a bit in the beginning for talking a lot it seemed, now he is targeted for not talking enough... I feel like Goldilocks...
But I still don't know how anyone plays and don't have a lot of solid info, so many of my votes are a shot in the dark.. The bad thing about that is that with the higher number of goods, odds are that we will be lynching a good..
Anyone know what the typical break even point is in game days where evils start getting wacked by blind luck? Does a lot of it become obvious at some point or are we all blind until end of game?

There is not one. There will always be more good players in the game than Evil ones since the moment the numbers equalize Evil wins and the game ends.

[Remus West]

I think tomorrow will be the day we have reveals especially if we miss today.

I'm not sure how long to give RMC to talk. I'm not sure what his indifference says about him. Villager with no care, bad guy playing it cool. I would think if he was special he would play a little more attention.

I am willing to move back to Unagi. I keep saying his posts have felt wolfish but the night kills do not feel like they have Unagi's fingerprints on them. Then again the night kills could be a devious misleading trick.

You left off "busy".

[Punisher]

I am going to wait for my vote this time to see if RMC or Unagi (or someone else here) can swing me one way or the other...
Not sure I am liking the reason for RMC though...
I was targeted a bit in the beginning for talking a lot it seemed, now he is targeted for not talking enough... I feel like Goldilocks...
But I still don't know how anyone plays and don't have a lot of solid info, so many of my votes are a shot in the dark.. The bad thing about that is that with the higher number of goods, odds are that we will be lynching a good..
Anyone know what the typical break even point is in game days where evils start getting wacked by blind luck? Does a lot of it become obvious at some point or are we all blind until end of game?

There is not one. There will always be more good players in the game than Evil ones since the moment the numbers equalize Evil wins and the game ends.

I mean, just from past games, is there a point where good just gets lucky and starts to hit some evils? Or is the majority of evil kills only based on actual data found during the game?

[Remus West]

I am going to wait for my vote this time to see if RMC or Unagi (or someone else here) can swing me one way or the other...
Not sure I am liking the reason for RMC though...
I was targeted a bit in the beginning for talking a lot it seemed, now he is targeted for not talking enough... I feel like Goldilocks...
But I still don't know how anyone plays and don't have a lot of solid info, so many of my votes are a shot in the dark.. The bad thing about that is that with the higher number of goods, odds are that we will be lynching a good..
Anyone know what the typical break even point is in game days where evils start getting wacked by blind luck? Does a lot of it become obvious at some point or are we all blind until end of game?

There is not one. There will always be more good players in the game than Evil ones since the moment the numbers equalize Evil wins and the game ends.

I mean, just from past games, is there a point where good just gets lucky and starts to hit some evils? Or is the majority of evil kills only based on actual data found during the game?

Usually someone hits on a mistake an evil player made. The last few lynches are typically by feel from a couple of people though as most good Specials will be dead.

[El Guapo]

So both RMC and Unagi are at n-2 now, right? Which is basically n-1 due to Dooku. Of course, any wolf can take advantage of the deadline by being 'busy', until posting a false claim a couple hours before the deadline.

Also - if one but not both of RMC / Unagi is a wolf, wouldn't they have Dooku'd the innocent one already?

[Isgrimnur]

Unagi is n-3. I am not Dooku.

[Remus West]

So both RMC and Unagi are at n-2 now, right? Which is basically n-1 due to Dooku. Of course, any wolf can take advantage of the deadline by being 'busy', until posting a false claim a couple hours before the deadline.

Also - if one but not both of RMC / Unagi is a wolf, wouldn't they have Dooku'd the innocent one already?

Even if they have neither would die at this point. That's why we stop at n-2 instead of n-1.

[bb2112]

Day 3 Votes:
1. El Guapo ------>
2. Remus West --> El Guapo, Zarathud, RMC
3. Chaosraven ---> RMC
4. Lassr -----------> Zarathud, El Guapo, RMC
5. Moliere --------> Unagi
6. Archinerd -----> Unagi, RMC
7. Scoop20906 ---> El Guapo, RMC
8. RMC ------------> Unagi
9. Isgrimnur ------> Zarathud, Unagi
10. PLW -----------> El Guapo
11. Punisher ------>
12. Holman -------> Unagi
13. Unagi ----------> RMC, Zarathud, RMC
14. Zarathud ------> Unagi

Votes:
6 RMC - Archinerd, Unagi, Scoop20906, Chaosraven, Remus West, Lassr
5 Unagi - Zarathud, Moliere, RMC, Holman, Isgrimnur
1 El Guapo - PLW


8 Votes Needed

Dead:
Day 1 - Newcastle -------> Stabbed
Night 1 - Grundbegriff --> Strangled
Day 2 - Tru1cy -----------> Bashed
Night 2 - Vorret ----------> Sacrificed

Deadline:
Deadline: Monday, March 20th, 8PM EDT

[Remus West]

Day 1 Votes:
1. Newcastle -----> Punisher, Lassr, Moliere, Vorret, Remus West, Grundbegriff, Remus West, Vorret, Remus West
2. El Guapo -------> Grundbegriff, Tru1cy, Vorret, Newcastle
3. Remus West ---> Newcastle, Scoop20906, Newcastle
4. Chaosraven ----> Scoop20906, Moliere, Scoop20906, Newcastle
5. Lassr ------------> Scoop20e906, Newcastle
6. Moliere ---------> Vorret, Scoop20906, Newcastle
7. Archinerd ------> Chaosraven, Scoop20906, Unagi, Newcastle
8. Scoop20906 ----> Vorret
9. RMC -------------> Vorret, Newcastle
10. Isgrimnur ------> Punisher, Scoop20906
11. PLW ------------> Holman
12. Punisher -------> Vorret, Newcastle
13. Holman --------> Moliere, Unagi, Newcastle
14. Vorret ----------> Punisher, Moliere, Scoop20906, Newcastle
15. Grundbegriff --> Scoop20906
16. Unagi -----------> Moliere, Holman, Scoop20906, Remus West, Newcastle
17. Zarathud -------> Chaosraven, Moliere, Unagi, Newcastle
18. Tru1cy ----------> Punisher, Vorret

Votes:
10 Newcastle - Remus West, Lassr, Chaosraven, Zarathud, RMC, Vorret, Moliere, Punisher, El Guapo, Unagi
2 Vorret - Scoop20906, Tru1cy
2 Scoop20906 - Grundbegriff, Isgrimnur
1 Remus West - Newcastle
1 Holman - PLW


10 Votes Needed

Dead:
Under New Management - Grand Opening Coming Soon

Deadline:
Thursday, March 2nd at 9PM

I think I have this right. If there are any errors, please let me know.

Day 2 Votes - Final:
1. El Guapo ------> Moliere, Holman, Tru1cy
2. Remus West --> Zarathud, Vorret, Zarathud, Tru1cy
3. Chaosraven ---> Tru1cy
4. Lassr -----------> RMC, Zarathud
5. Moliere --------> Vorret, Unagi
6. Archinerd -----> Punisher, Unagi, Tru1cy, Unagi
7. Scoop20906 ---> Vorret, Tru1cy
8. RMC ------------> Zarathud, RMC
9. Isgrimnur ------> Holman, Vorret
10. PLW -----------> El Guapo Zarathud
11. Punisher ------> Vorret
12. Holman -------> Unagi, Tru1cy
13. Vorret ---------> Punisher, Scoop20906, Tru1cy
14. Unagi ----------> Scoop20906, Zarathud, Tru1cy, Vorret, RMC, Remus West, Tru1cy
15. Zarathud ------> Moliere, Unagi, Tru1cy
16. Tru1cy ---------> Punisher, Vorret

Votes:
9 Tru1cy - El Guapo, Zarathud, Vorret, Chaosraven, Remus West, RMC, Scoop20906, Unagi, Holman
3 Vorret - Punisher, Isgrimnur, Tru1cy
2 Zarathud - Lassr, PLW
2 Unagi - Moliere, Archinerd


9 Votes Needed

Dead:
Day 1 - Newcastle -------> Rebel
Night 1 - Grundbegriff --> Rebel

Deadline:

Day 3 Votes:
1. El Guapo ------>
2. Remus West --> El Guapo, Zarathud, RMC
3. Chaosraven ---> RMC
4. Lassr -----------> Zarathud, El Guapo, RMC
5. Moliere --------> Unagi
6. Archinerd -----> Unagi, RMC
7. Scoop20906 ---> El Guapo, RMC
8. RMC ------------> Unagi
9. Isgrimnur ------> Zarathud, Unagi
10. PLW -----------> El Guapo
11. Punisher ------>
12. Holman -------> Unagi
13. Unagi ----------> RMC, Zarathud, RMC
14. Zarathud ------> Unagi

Votes:
6 RMC - Archinerd, Unagi, Scoop20906, Chaosraven, Remus West, Lassr
5 Unagi - Zarathud, Moliere, RMC, Holman, Isgrimnur
1 El Guapo - PLW


8 Votes Needed

Dead:
Day 1 - Newcastle -------> Stabbed
Night 1 - Grundbegriff --> Strangled
Day 2 - Tru1cy -----------> Bashed
Night 2 - Vorret ----------> Sacrificed

Deadline:
Deadline: Monday, March 20th, 8PM EDT

RMC called Zarathud his primary suspect then went along and voted tru1cy with Zarathud - just like he is voting for Unagi today......with Zarathud. What does that say to you all? To me it says RMC is evil. I had missed that until going back to look at his story just now. I like that vote A LOT more now.

Lynch RMC. The most Imperial looking devil on the boards.

[Remus West]

BTW, the day 3 in the quote above is the updated one. I meant to take the quote of my old post out and just bring the day 1 and day 2 vote counts forward.

Also, Punisher, this is usually how we catch a bad guy. Finding a mistake they have made.

[El Guapo]

So both RMC and Unagi are at n-2 now, right? Which is basically n-1 due to Dooku. Of course, any wolf can take advantage of the deadline by being 'busy', until posting a false claim a couple hours before the deadline.

Also - if one but not both of RMC / Unagi is a wolf, wouldn't they have Dooku'd the innocent one already?

Even if they have neither would die at this point. That's why we stop at n-2 instead of n-1.

I meant that, if one is evil and one is not, wouldn't it be tempting to Newcastle them? Vote the innocent one to n-1 and supply the Dooku secret vote.

Though I had thought that both of them were at n-2, which is not the case.

[El Guapo]

RMC called Zarathud his primary suspect then went along and voted tru1cy with Zarathud - just like he is voting for Unagi today......with Zarathud. What does that say to you all? To me it says RMC is evil. I had missed that until going back to look at his story just now. I like that vote A LOT more now.

Lynch RMC. The most Imperial looking devil on the boards.

This is a good point. Would be nice to hear from RMC.

[Remus West]

So both RMC and Unagi are at n-2 now, right? Which is basically n-1 due to Dooku. Of course, any wolf can take advantage of the deadline by being 'busy', until posting a false claim a couple hours before the deadline.

Also - if one but not both of RMC / Unagi is a wolf, wouldn't they have Dooku'd the innocent one already?

Even if they have neither would die at this point. That's why we stop at n-2 instead of n-1.

I meant that, if one is evil and one is not, wouldn't it be tempting to Newcastle them? Vote the innocent one to n-1 and supply the Dooku secret vote.

Though I had thought that both of them were at n-2, which is not the case.

That would also require them to be willing to sacrifice whomever cast the vote to place the victim within Dooku's reach to a likely lynch the following day.

[Scoop20906]

F***CK.

Where the heck is RMC? We HAVE to wait for him to say something. You can't give a guy a pass after 3 days of inactivity but I don't want to lynch him without getting his data dump first.

[PLW]

We have five hours, but unless he speaks up soon, I think he gets lynched regardless of what he says.

[El Guapo]

F***CK.

Where the heck is RMC? We HAVE to wait for him to say something. You can't give a guy a pass after 3 days of inactivity but I don't want to lynch him without getting his data dump first.

Hey, tempting the souls of all mankind takes up a lot of time.

[Archinerd]

Best case scenario.
RMC is a wolf and I can mostly trust Unagi.

2nd Best, Dooku uses a vote.

Worst, Unagi is a wolf and has now dogged the noose 3 times.

Worst, worst. Unagi is a wolf and has now dogged the noose 3 times with Zarathud's help.

Even more worst, I'm just flailing around in the dark killing my friends with no rhyme or reason.*

*also most likely.

RMC, where are you?

[Archinerd]

...and I meant dodged, not dogged.

[Scoop20906]

F***CK.

Where the heck is RMC? We HAVE to wait for him to say something. You can't give a guy a pass after 3 days of inactivity but I don't want to lynch him without getting his data dump first.

Hey, tempting the souls of all mankind takes up a lot of time.

Naw, RMC is busying eating kittens.

[Zarathud]

Even if I wasn't so suspicious about Unagi, the train on RMC went up too quickly. Archinerd changed, then Scoop dared Unagi to follow.

That momentum really bothers me, even though it took me away from the chopping block. After Unagi's post about me, that about face is just WRONG.

I have to laugh at the ridiculousness -- Archinerd fears I'm helping Unagi by voting for him while Remus thinks I'm helping RMC instead. At least Chaosraven just threatens that I'm "next."

This stinks more than the insides of a Tauntaun.

[Remus West]

Even if I wasn't so suspicious about Unagi, the train on RMC went up too quickly. Archinerd changed, then Scoop dared Unagi to follow.

That momentum really bothers me, even though it took me away from the chopping block. After Unagi's post about me, that about face is just WRONG.

I have to laugh at the ridiculousness -- Archinerd fears I'm helping Unagi by voting for him while Remus thinks I'm helping RMC instead. At least Chaosraven just threatens that I'm "next."

This stinks more than the insides of a Tauntaun.

I commented on RMC not you. I said near nothing about you other than to note he said you were his main suspect and then voted with you twice. That is not about you. That is about his self contradictory statements.

It is interesting that his actions don't bother you though. Did it never cross your mind to wonder if he was trying to set you up?

That last part was all about you.

[Zarathud]

RMC making that "lynch all the lawyers" joke? No, frankly expected it from someone.



You aren't manipulating me that easily. I'm not voting to follow anyone. That should be pretty clear by now.

[bb2112]

Day 3 Votes:
1. El Guapo ------>
2. Remus West --> El Guapo, Zarathud, RMC
3. Chaosraven ---> RMC
4. Lassr -----------> Zarathud, El Guapo, RMC
5. Moliere --------> Unagi
6. Archinerd -----> Unagi, RMC
7. Scoop20906 ---> El Guapo, RMC
8. RMC ------------> Unagi
9. Isgrimnur ------> Zarathud, Unagi
10. PLW -----------> El Guapo
11. Punisher ------>
12. Holman -------> Unagi
13. Unagi ----------> RMC, Zarathud, RMC
14. Zarathud ------> Unagi

Votes:
6 RMC - Archinerd, Unagi, Scoop20906, Chaosraven, Remus West, Lassr
5 Unagi - Zarathud, Moliere, RMC, Holman, Isgrimnur
1 El Guapo - PLW


8 Votes Needed

Dead:
Day 1 - Newcastle -------> Stabbed
Night 1 - Grundbegriff --> Strangled
Day 2 - Tru1cy -----------> Bashed
Night 2 - Vorret ----------> Sacrificed

Deadline:
Deadline: Monday, March 20th, 8PM EDT

[El Guapo]

ugh, I think we have to assume that RMC is not going to show up before the deadline.

[RMC]

Sorry, had a major system outage at work for the past two days, so have not had time to log on, totally my bad. You do not want to lynch me.

I am a special, I would appreciate not being lynched.

I have been laying low, and it caught up to me. Sorry, it was a bad tactic, that looks worse because of my work situation.

I would prefer to keep the wolves guessing on who I am.

[El Guapo]

I bet you would, but we've gotten burned by "I'm a special" vague claims in the past. In fact, didn't you try to hide behind that in a previous game?

Anyway, you should specify your role, since (if you're telling the truth) you're going to be targeted by the wolves, and we don't want you dying with your knowledge (especially if you're Obi-Wan or Talon Karrde).

[Unagi]

because if you declared special earlier, with lots of time to recover - it would look weird that Vader is just choking you?

[Unagi]

isn't *

[El Guapo]

Puts us in a bind, right? Declaring vague special very close to the deadline forces us to either hurriedly rush someone else (probably Unagi), OR to risk lynching a special without knowing their role, AND doesn't risk a counter-claim. Very wolfy. But then, lynching a special is bad.

[RMC]

Okay, I am Qui-Gon Jinn.

You can Lynch me tonight and only lose your protector who has been doing a pretty lousy job honestly.

I hate to revel this, but I will not say who I protected last night, as it makes it harder on the wolves.

[Chaosraven]

 withdraw RMC 
 


 Unagi 
 

[El Guapo]

ok, then.

 Unagi 
 


I've been on the fence today about RMC vs. Unagi. In the absence of counter-claims (in the next 90 minutes), better to go with Unagi (who has triggered my suspicions more than once over the past couple days) rather than risk lynching Qui-Gon (and presumably giving the bad guys a free scan).

If Qui-Gon is out there, however, please do speak up.

[El Guapo]

 withdraw Unagi