BSG XI-Amduatey Virus-Game over

[Newcastle]

I know I might be fixated here, but suspecting Stessier is the only way I can make any sense of Scoop's play.

Not sure that I agree with this. The value of Scoop's plan (setting aside the blunder) was this: he fakes the seer, and by coming out unprompted looks more credible. He can realistically get the village to lynch Archinerd, who (for whatever reason) he suspects to be a special. There are lots of possible upsides here:

(1) If Archinerd *is* a special, he's probably eliminated or another
(2) Tigh may well out himself. By coming out second the real Tigh looks less credible; Scoop can probably get him lynched, and if not he can be night-killed or 'sploded.
(3) If Tigh outs himself and Scoop convinces everyone that he's the real Tigh, Scoop could succeed at taking his place, which could basically win the wolves the game.
(4) Worst case scenario Archinerd turns out to be a regular villager, Tigh doesn't reveal himself, the village probably lynches Archinerd Day 3 and Scoop Day 4, whereupon Scoop 'splodes and kills whomever he thinks is the next most likely special.

Scoop's an aggressive player. His claim was rushed (probably contributing to the error), but that's explicable to me based upon the fact that it's essential to the plan that he come out before the real Tigh, who could plausibly reveal himself at the start of any day.

Not to say that Scoop didn't also do it to protect a wolf stessier, just that that really doesn't seem like the only plausible explanation for Scoop's move.

Fully agree with this assessment.

It doesn't have to be a protect stessier play. it can be simply to sow confusion and eat up a day at the bare minimum with his play. Maybe the stessier accuse of archinerd was a signal, maybe not.

-I wonder about the punisher kill; what made them go for him? Did he scream special? Not sure what he said to get the bullet. He's a new player, so that would suggest some sort of familiarity with him. Did he say something to set alarm bells off?
- i wonder if BB's killing was initially to try to set off the detroit accusation paradigm and further confuse things (if so why not kill Cr and really bring down the heat on remus).
-i suspect remus was special; he felt that way. Also he made a math mistake yesterday (forget where/what it was) but i found that to be off and was wondering if he was faking it. It just seemed an obvious blunder and i was thinking he did it deliberately to survive another day. When i read it; I was actually gonna poke him today a bit.
- i suspect grund was zabrek. Simply the way he played. I dont think he would go to the grave as a good special that way.



Suspect list:

TOP TWO

Vorret (obvious reasons)

***
Unagi (remember how i keep chirping about him having a tell? and generally i am right but no one listens); the moliere train; plus this is day 4 now he usually puts out more. Plus have i mentioned his tell?

***

NEUTRAL

Holman - not sure yet. Wondering if his statements feel forced.
Stessier (he feels off, but it could be not having played with him for a while; more to trending good in the last few days).

The rest
truicy - feels good
CR - not enough posts to get a good read, but am leaning to good...
El guapo - feels good

[El Guapo]

My guess is that Punisher was a special and got scanned night 1; otherwise it seems odd. Though Punisher's an odd night 1 scan choice - but maybe that's because he's new so harder to read?

Where I am right now is altogether I think the best case is against Vorret. But at the same time it's a bit of a bind because we won't get any additional information from lynching Vorret, since there's no way that he doesn't come back wolf. But I don't love the prospect of lynching stessier in order to test Vorret.

[Newcastle]

My guess is that Punisher was a special and got scanned night 1; otherwise it seems odd. Though Punisher's an odd night 1 scan choice - but maybe that's because he's new so harder to read?

Where I am right now is altogether I think the best case is against Vorret. But at the same time it's a bit of a bind because we won't get any additional information from lynching Vorret, since there's no way that he doesn't come back wolf. But I don't love the prospect of lynching stessier in order to test Vorret.

A bird in hand is better than one in the bush. I am not holding out hopes for any reveals and am betting all of our specials are dead. So we're on our own with the aid of our grey cells. Lets get through today and address where we stand tomorrow.
Not sure how to kick up more data by switching targets...but hey am open to hear other arguments.

[Vorret]

My guess is that Punisher was a special and got scanned night 1; otherwise it seems odd. Though Punisher's an odd night 1 scan choice - but maybe that's because he's new so harder to read?

Where I am right now is altogether I think the best case is against Vorret. But at the same time it's a bit of a bind because we won't get any additional information from lynching Vorret, since there's no way that he doesn't come back wolf. But I don't love the prospect of lynching stessier in order to test Vorret.

Well, you lynch stess and if he comes out Cylon then you realize I'm just a terrible seer and should be banned from the role (though I did won a game a few years ago with some epic scans) but that was a "real" seer role not this gimped version

In any case, there's nothing really I can add that would change anyone's mind here, a lot of us were in agreement a few days ago that Stessier was most likely a wolf and that was even more a certainty after Scoop's blunder. Had I not come out with the info he probably would have been lynched today now since I made a few "not paying enough attention" mistakes I'm on the chopping block and killing me will do nothing in the long run (other than give another miss to the humans and we're closing in on a quick loss).

[El Guapo]

My guess is that Punisher was a special and got scanned night 1; otherwise it seems odd. Though Punisher's an odd night 1 scan choice - but maybe that's because he's new so harder to read?

Where I am right now is altogether I think the best case is against Vorret. But at the same time it's a bit of a bind because we won't get any additional information from lynching Vorret, since there's no way that he doesn't come back wolf. But I don't love the prospect of lynching stessier in order to test Vorret.

A bird in hand is better than one in the bush. I am not holding out hopes for any reveals and am betting all of our specials are dead. So we're on our own with the aid of our grey cells. Lets get through today and address where we stand tomorrow.
Not sure how to kick up more data by switching targets...but hey am open to hear other arguments.

I am inclined to agree with the bird in hand philosophy. But the problem is that if we decide on Vorret and we're wrong, we're not going to know until close to the end, when it's probably too late.

[Newcastle]

ELG - so you think we could actually be wrong? Let me ask you this...as a special would you ever screw up when you could order something? And then write up and that screw up is central to explaining your actions? Because how he describes what he does doesn't match up with what the real Tigh can do. Wouldn't the real tigh know when he can/can't submit his orders? Because each time he wrote "night 1-4" that's four times he wrote night. Wouldn't at one point writing that, he'd go... i can't order at night, i can only order at day. It's displays an unfamiliarity with the role.

I dont think we're wrong.

[Vorret]

ELG - so you think we could actually be wrong? Let me ask you this...as a special would you ever screw up when you could order something? And then write up and that screw up is central to explaining your actions? Because how he describes what he does doesn't match up with what the real Tigh can do. Wouldn't the real tigh know when he can/can't submit his orders? Because each time he wrote "night 1-4" that's four times he wrote night. Wouldn't at one point writing that, he'd go... i can't order at night, i can only order at day. It's displays an unfamiliarity with the role.

I dont think we're wrong.

If you knew me you'd know how absent minded I can be
As long as you lynch stess tomorrow I'm good with dying today.





Disclaimer :
*IF said person is alive and able to scan and not incapacitated in any shape or form*

[Newcastle]

ELG - so you think we could actually be wrong? Let me ask you this...as a special would you ever screw up when you could order something? And then write up and that screw up is central to explaining your actions? Because how he describes what he does doesn't match up with what the real Tigh can do. Wouldn't the real tigh know when he can/can't submit his orders? Because each time he wrote "night 1-4" that's four times he wrote night. Wouldn't at one point writing that, he'd go... i can't order at night, i can only order at day. It's displays an unfamiliarity with the role.

I dont think we're wrong.

If you knew me you'd know how absent minded I can be
As long as you lynch stess tomorrow I'm good with dying today.

Disclaimer :
*IF said person is alive and able to scan and not incapacitated in any shape or form*

/sniffs
But i do know you. From all those years playing WOW with you. I think you're a smart cookie, you're grasp of english is native-esque. And you're polite as hell. And goofy, with a penchant for no pants. And you're a bad toaster.

[Vorret]

ELG - so you think we could actually be wrong? Let me ask you this...as a special would you ever screw up when you could order something? And then write up and that screw up is central to explaining your actions? Because how he describes what he does doesn't match up with what the real Tigh can do. Wouldn't the real tigh know when he can/can't submit his orders? Because each time he wrote "night 1-4" that's four times he wrote night. Wouldn't at one point writing that, he'd go... i can't order at night, i can only order at day. It's displays an unfamiliarity with the role.

I dont think we're wrong.

If you knew me you'd know how absent minded I can be
As long as you lynch stess tomorrow I'm good with dying today.

Disclaimer :
*IF said person is alive and able to scan and not incapacitated in any shape or form*

/sniffs
But i do know you. From all those years playing WOW with you. I think you're a smart cookie, you're grasp of english is native-esque. And you're polite as hell. And goofy, with a penchant for no pants. And you're a bad toaster.

I might be a toaster but I'm not one of those wal-mart 20$ toaster, oh no sir, I'm a top of the line both sides are perfectly toasted toaster.

[El Guapo]

ELG - so you think we could actually be wrong? Let me ask you this...as a special would you ever screw up when you could order something? And then write up and that screw up is central to explaining your actions? Because how he describes what he does doesn't match up with what the real Tigh can do. Wouldn't the real tigh know when he can/can't submit his orders? Because each time he wrote "night 1-4" that's four times he wrote night. Wouldn't at one point writing that, he'd go... i can't order at night, i can only order at day. It's displays an unfamiliarity with the role.

I dont think we're wrong.

I think it's possible that Vorret made the mistake he claims (writing night instead of day repeatedly). I don't think that's *likely*, but I think it's possible. I just worry about the error cost here, which is significant.

I also worry a bit because I think there are causes to suspect Unagi and/or stessier, and Vorret being a wolf is somewhat inconsistent with Unagi and stessier being wolves.

Anyway, gun to my head right now I would say Vorret, but I do want to hear from our quiet crowd as well, at a minimum - chaosraven, tru1cy, etc.

[El Guapo]

Ohhhh, I got it. Let's give Vorret a depth perception test.

[stessier]

I know I might be fixated here, but suspecting Stessier is the only way I can make any sense of Scoop's play.

Not sure that I agree with this. The value of Scoop's plan (setting aside the blunder) was this: he fakes the seer, and by coming out unprompted looks more credible. He can realistically get the village to lynch Archinerd, who (for whatever reason) he suspects to be a special. There are lots of possible upsides here:

(1) If Archinerd *is* a special, he's probably eliminated or another
(2) Tigh may well out himself. By coming out second the real Tigh looks less credible; Scoop can probably get him lynched, and if not he can be night-killed or 'sploded.
(3) If Tigh outs himself and Scoop convinces everyone that he's the real Tigh, Scoop could succeed at taking his place, which could basically win the wolves the game.
(4) Worst case scenario Archinerd turns out to be a regular villager, Tigh doesn't reveal himself, the village probably lynches Archinerd Day 3 and Scoop Day 4, whereupon Scoop 'splodes and kills whomever he thinks is the next most likely special.

Scoop's an aggressive player. His claim was rushed (probably contributing to the error), but that's explicable to me based upon the fact that it's essential to the plan that he come out before the real Tigh, who could plausibly reveal himself at the start of any day.

Not to say that Scoop didn't also do it to protect a wolf stessier, just that that really doesn't seem like the only plausible explanation for Scoop's move.

Fully agree with this assessment.

It doesn't have to be a protect stessier play. it can be simply to sow confusion and eat up a day at the bare minimum with his play. Maybe the stessier accuse of archinerd was a signal, maybe not.

What does this mean? It seems to come out of left field.

[stessier]

But I don't love the prospect of lynching stessier in order to test Vorret.

That can't be used as a reason to lynch me. I mean, it can, but it's horrible logic. Vorret has said nothing that lynching any of his scans will help with. When I come back human, it's "oops."

[stessier]

My guess is that Punisher was a special and got scanned night 1; otherwise it seems odd. Though Punisher's an odd night 1 scan choice - but maybe that's because he's new so harder to read?

Where I am right now is altogether I think the best case is against Vorret. But at the same time it's a bit of a bind because we won't get any additional information from lynching Vorret, since there's no way that he doesn't come back wolf. But I don't love the prospect of lynching stessier in order to test Vorret.

A bird in hand is better than one in the bush. I am not holding out hopes for any reveals and am betting all of our specials are dead. So we're on our own with the aid of our grey cells. Lets get through today and address where we stand tomorrow.
Not sure how to kick up more data by switching targets...but hey am open to hear other arguments.

Anders isn't dead. I'm betting the Cylons are trying to lynch him or get him to out himself so they don't accidentally waste a night kill. He can't wait until the last day to come out (because then he would certainly be contested and it would be a coin flip), but he doesn't have to say anything today.

[Newcastle]

ELG - so you think we could actually be wrong? Let me ask you this...as a special would you ever screw up when you could order something? And then write up and that screw up is central to explaining your actions? Because how he describes what he does doesn't match up with what the real Tigh can do. Wouldn't the real tigh know when he can/can't submit his orders? Because each time he wrote "night 1-4" that's four times he wrote night. Wouldn't at one point writing that, he'd go... i can't order at night, i can only order at day. It's displays an unfamiliarity with the role.

I dont think we're wrong.

I think it's possible that Vorret made the mistake he claims (writing night instead of day repeatedly). I don't think that's *likely*, but I think it's possible. I just worry about the error cost here, which is significant.

I also worry a bit because I think there are causes to suspect Unagi and/or stessier, and Vorret being a wolf is somewhat inconsistent with Unagi and stessier being wolves.

Anyway, gun to my head right now I would say Vorret, but I do want to hear from our quiet crowd as well, at a minimum - chaosraven, tru1cy, etc.

That's very valid and i tend to agree with that....the most likely pairing in my eyes is unagi & vorret. I think Vorrets day/night mix up is simply too big for it to be chalked up to innocent human error.

In terms of unagi & stessier i kind of want to put that off toward tomorrow, simply because it will make an easier decision than 1 of 3. If you could make a compelling case for anyone else. I am all ears.

[Newcastle]

I know I might be fixated here, but suspecting Stessier is the only way I can make any sense of Scoop's play.

Not sure that I agree with this. The value of Scoop's plan (setting aside the blunder) was this: he fakes the seer, and by coming out unprompted looks more credible. He can realistically get the village to lynch Archinerd, who (for whatever reason) he suspects to be a special. There are lots of possible upsides here:

(1) If Archinerd *is* a special, he's probably eliminated or another
(2) Tigh may well out himself. By coming out second the real Tigh looks less credible; Scoop can probably get him lynched, and if not he can be night-killed or 'sploded.
(3) If Tigh outs himself and Scoop convinces everyone that he's the real Tigh, Scoop could succeed at taking his place, which could basically win the wolves the game.
(4) Worst case scenario Archinerd turns out to be a regular villager, Tigh doesn't reveal himself, the village probably lynches Archinerd Day 3 and Scoop Day 4, whereupon Scoop 'splodes and kills whomever he thinks is the next most likely special.

Scoop's an aggressive player. His claim was rushed (probably contributing to the error), but that's explicable to me based upon the fact that it's essential to the plan that he come out before the real Tigh, who could plausibly reveal himself at the start of any day.

Not to say that Scoop didn't also do it to protect a wolf stessier, just that that really doesn't seem like the only plausible explanation for Scoop's move.

Fully agree with this assessment.

It doesn't have to be a protect stessier play. it can be simply to sow confusion and eat up a day at the bare minimum with his play. Maybe the stessier accuse of archinerd was a signal, maybe not.

What does this mean? It seems to come out of left field.

is that to me? And what specifically are you asking.

[Newcastle]

Ok, i've spent way, way too much time on this this morning. I'll check back in tonight. Got a to do list to nip back down.

[Unagi]

is that to me? And what specifically are you asking.

You just brought up the post (back when Archinerd was selected as Scoops target) where I had searched for 'Archinerd' and found the post (out of context) where Stessier had accused him, but it was later corrected/shown in context that stessier was having vote-sex with everyone at the time. And you just sorta tacked that onto the end of your post.

[El Guapo]

1 Vorret---------- Boomer?
2 El Guapo------- Pure as the driven snow
3 Unagi---------- ?
4 Holman-------- Lean good
5 Chaosraven--- ? - Secret mime
6 tru1cy---------- Probably a humble villager
7 Newcastle----- Lean good
8 Stessier-------- ?


Anyone know where Chaosraven wandered off to? Or tru1cy for that matter?

[Newcastle]

is that to me? And what specifically are you asking.

You just brought up the post (back when Archinerd was selected as Scoops target) where I had searched for 'Archinerd' and found the post (out of context) where Stessier had accused him, but it was later corrected/shown in context that stessier was having vote-sex with everyone at the time. And you just sorta tacked that onto the end of your post.

Gotcha. I brought it up specifically because I wanted to comment on it. It had been on my mind and wanted to just toss that out there.

[Chaosraven]

1 Vorret---------- Boomer?
2 El Guapo------- Pure as the driven snow
3 Unagi---------- ?
4 Holman-------- Lean good
5 Chaosraven--- ? - Secret mime
6 tru1cy---------- Probably a humble villager
7 Newcastle----- Lean good
8 Stessier-------- ?


Anyone know where Chaosraven wandered off to? Or tru1cy for that matter?

Work, where I have no access to OO. But I check in and read when I get home.
Sporadic posting over the evening.

Most of this game hinges on Gaeta and Apollo info.
We need Gaeta on a Vorret lynch as he claims to be a Cylon (Tigh) and if he's lying then he's a Cylon.
We need Apollo to give us Dead Player info (including Vorret info, and previous deaths - bb2112, punisher, archinerd)
And we need them to tell us tomorrow.

We are actually two misses away with no protector, best case is Cylons hit Anders tonight or tomorrow night else we lose with those misses.
Next best is we lynch Anders and buy the extra chance with a revealed confirmed good guy.

Followed by the hope Zarek is dead and not about to steal the win if we manage to find the remaining two bad guys if Vorret really is Tigh.
Because if Punisher was Tigh and scanned Night One we are in for a rough time.

[El Guapo]

I think the working theory is that Gaeta is dead, because everyone checked in before the Scoop vote, and there's no reason for Gaeta (if alive, obviously) to not have been on that vote, and there's also no obvious reason for a Gaeta that was on that vote to not now disclose the results of the scan that he would have received.

[El Guapo]

Moliere-------- lynched (claimed regular villager)
BB2112--------- Night 1 kill
Grundbegriff-- lynched (claimed regular villager)
Punisher------ Night 2 kill
Scoop--------- Daniel
Archinerd'---- 'sploded day 3
Remus West-- night 3 kill

Anders is still alive because no one has cheated death yet.

Gaeta is probably dead for the reasons above, so was presumably among [bb2112, Punisher, Archinerd, and Remus]

You figure that a living (non-Vorret) Tigh would probably come forward to dispute Vorret. So if Vorret is lying, that would mean that both Gaeta and Tigh were among the [bb2112, Punisher, Archinerd, and Remus] group.

I would also guess that Apollo is *probably* still alive, since there's no clear reason for him to come out yet, and the wolves would have to be on fire to have nailed Gaeta, Tigh, and Anders out of a group of 4 deaths.

Also, relatedly, for what it's worth presumably Apollo would have scanned Moliere night 1 (only choice), presumably confirming that he was a regular villager. Night 2 probably would scan bb2112 (since Grund, the day 2 lynch, claimed regular villager and came back human). Night 3 could have scanned Punisher or Archinerd (hopefully Punisher between the two since that was the one driven by the wolves who had access to a scanner, but I could see scanning Archinerd also to see if there was something to Scoop's obsession with him on day 3).

On that - if Apollo has found a Tigh corpse, should he speak up? My thinking is not as long as we are headed towards a Vorret lynch (but probably speak up tomorrow). If he's found Gaeta probably not worth speaking up I'm guessing since it seems pretty clear that Gaeta's dead as is.

Here's another question - if Apollo's alive and his scans showed that (say) bb2112 and Punisher were regular villagers. Would that change anything for us? Guessing not - it would mean that Gaeta was among the remaining two [Archinerd, Remus], and if Vorret's lying the other one in that group would have been Tigh.

[Holman]

Should Apollo speak up if he can tell us (with some measure of certainty) whether or not Vorret is actually Tigh?

[El Guapo]

Should Apollo speak up if he can tell us (with some measure of certainty) whether or not Vorret is actually Tigh?

This is part of what I was analyzing the morgue records above. I guess my tentative conclusions are:

(1) It seems like we're probably going to lynch Vorret at the moment. If so, and if Apollo is alive and has found a Tigh corpse, there doesn't seem to be much reason for Apollo to reveal himself to tell us that. Probably worth revealing himself tomorrow (along with other scan results).

(2) Not sure that Apollo could have information that would prove that Vorret is Tigh (which would be the more critical information today if so). At the most he could have scans indicating that two of the unaccounted for corpses (the scan of Moliere being mostly worthless) were regular villagers, but that would still leave room for the other two unaccounted for corpses being Gaeta and Tigh.

(3) If the village moved away from lynching Vorret and Apollo had a scan showing that Tigh was amongst the dead, then he should reveal himself.

But I'm open to persuasion on these points.

[Vorret]

Well obviously if he scanned the night kills and there's no Tigh I'd love for him to come out and save my ass !!

[El Guapo]

Well obviously if he scanned the night kills and there's no Tigh I'd love for him to come out and save my ass !!

He can't have scanned all the night kills. In fact (though maybe I should confirm this), from reading the order processing he can't scan a night kill the same night that it happens, so he can only account for two of the four people killed by the wolves (including Archinerd). So there's no way for him to "save your ass".

Lassr - Apollo can't scan a night kill the night it happens, right? Like, for example, when bb2112 was killed on night 1, Apollo couldn't scan him until night 2, correct?

[Lassr]

Correct.

Sent from my SM-J320V using Tapatalk

[stessier]

We should have lynched tru1cy instead of Moliere...Moliere would have at least posted once a day.

[Unagi]

Hey man, just because he isn't posting doesn't mean he isn't playing !!

Just because I'm silent doesn't mean I'm not playing.

[Vorret]

We should have lynched tru1cy instead of Moliere...Moliere would have at least posted once a day.

[Newcastle]

We should have lynched tru1cy instead of Moliere...Moliere would have at least posted once a day.

Dude, there was some serious blood lust on that train.

[Newcastle]

LASSR

Not sure if this was asked.....and i am not gonna re-read the thread. BUT....does Gaeta get a scan of people regardless of the lynched cylon's alignment?

I still think the best bet is to take out Vorret. I think if gaeta is still alive then hopefully he can get on that train. I was twirling the idea around of maybe sniffing in another direction, but CR did point out that if Gaeta is alive, and vorret is what we believe that's one more scan. However that begs the question, why wouldn't gaeta come out today?

Regarding Anders.... not sure the best strategy of him. Intriguing possibility that CR laid out, of us lynching him to punt for a day or maybe we'll get lucky and the Cylons hit him. So Anders, make yourself a damn target will ya!

Regarding Tigh- Not sure if its best for him to come out yet. Considering we have zero protectors. Its a gamble if they survive another night.

So, I had a thought on Punisher.....and it's building on what someone else said. Say he was the night 1 scan of team toaster. Why would they scan him? My thinking would be that the cylons specifically thought he was acting strange OR they thought he could potentially live to the latter stages of the game and hence the wolves wanted to take him out. So if they thought he could survive to the end stages, what does that tell us? Not sure yet. But if he was a choice for a scan, he's an interesting choice. Really curious if he said somethign that tipped folks off.

I think i might have to reread the thread to see if anything jumps out at me.

Quick and dirty math:
8 left, 2 cylons, 6 good

Today
L 1
NK 1

(miss)
***

Day 2

6 left, 2 cylons
Lynch 1
Miss = game over

So 2 misses left as CR said.


***
Lets toss anders in the mix.


Day 1
8 left 6 human, 2 cylon
Lynch 1
NK (anders)

***
Day 2
5 humans left, 2 cylon
L 1
NK 1

***
Day 3
3 humans left, 2 cylons.

*****

Interesting, so Anders actually gives us another day. So we might actually get three bites at the apple if things go absolutely wrong.

[Unagi]

OK, I've watched enough.

I've got a little announcement to make here guys...

I am Apollo folks.
(sorry to disappoint)

My scans were such:
Night 1 - Moliere - Civilian
Night 2 - BB2112 - Civilian
Night 3 - Punisher - Saul Tigh

So, you can see I have absolutely no doubt that Vorret is a bad cylon right now.

I plan to scan Remus tonight...

Currently I'm feeling that Newcastle is likely evil and stessier likely good.
Chaosraven and Holman - same level of neutral (with some concern), with CR getting a little credit for being Scoop's "blocked scan"
El Guapo felt mostly good, and clearly was.
Tru1cy didn't blink at N-1, but I do sorta wish we had indeed just gone through with that.

With the Traitor thing in play, I'm not sure what to expect in the next few days. I pray that Grund's behavior was that of Zarek's.

I welcome anyone to contest me.

[stessier]

[El Guapo]

Interesting. That makes sense. Obviously if Unagi's lying and there's a real Apollo out there you should counter, although that would be pretty surprising.

Unagi, I'd be interested in your case against Newcastle, so if you could post it before night (game time) that would be great, as I am assuming that you will be dead tomorrow (unless you are lying, or the wolves try to make it look like you are lying). I've been leaning good on Newcastle today, but honestly I trust your assessments (assuming for the moment that you are telling the truth) much more than mine in these games.

[stessier]

El Guapo felt mostly good, and clearly was.

I don't understand this comment.

[El Guapo]

Anyway, I think the big picture is to wait for a day-ish (IRL) and then proceed with lynching Vorret in the absence of a counter.

[Vorret]

OK, I've watched enough.

I've got a little announcement to make here guys...

I am Apollo folks.
(sorry to disappoint)

My scans were such:
Night 1 - Moliere - Civilian
Night 2 - BB2112 - Civilian
Night 3 - Punisher - Saul Tigh

So, you can see I have absolutely no doubt that Vorret is a bad cylon right now.

I plan to scan Remus tonight...

Currently I'm feeling that Newcastle is likely evil and stessier likely good.
Chaosraven and Holman - same level of neutral (with some concern), with CR getting a little credit for being Scoop's "blocked scan"
El Guapo felt mostly good, and clearly was.
Tru1cy didn't blink at N-1, but I do sorta wish we had indeed just gone through with that.

With the Traitor thing in play, I'm not sure what to expect in the next few days. I pray that Grund's behavior was that of Zarek's.

I welcome anyone to contest me.

If you lynch me, we lose the game.

[El Guapo]

El Guapo felt mostly good, and clearly was.

I don't understand this comment.

Yeah, I agree that the "clearly was" part is confusing.