Octopus Overlords

At the advanced age of 48, I sometimes type up classroom lesson plans using the wrong character's name when of course I -know- which character is which. Stuff happens in writing.

Scoop faked Tigh but blew his cover because he botched the day count. Surely this would have been discussed with great dismay on the Wolf forum.

Would the next Wolf to make a Tigh claim but not run it by his partner to make sure there was no similar fuckup? They would at least discuss what names to put in the claim, and it would have been hard for two of them to mistake day for night after carefully considering where Scoop's similar claim went wrong.

stessier wrote:

Holman wrote:

Unagi wrote:I don't follow you there at all. Could you phrase that in some other way?

You came out when there was no risk in coming out. Yes, someone could have counterclaimed you, but that's the danger in every claim.

Remember: I don't know if you're good or Vorret is, but I know one of you is lying. My plan produces useful information from today's choice.

It's nothing personal. It's just that killing a Tigh-claimant gives us nothing while killing an Apollo-claimant, as it turns out here, gives us a lot. Killing you gives us very useful information even if you're telling the truth.

I played with the numbers for a while. It comes down to what you believe. I think Unagi is likely good because of when he made his claim and what his claim is, so using the Miss isn't worth the information. I think Vorret is Bad because of what he claims and how it contradicts his play, so the idea of being wrong and using the Miss there doesn't bother me...because I don't think it's a Miss. Also, I think the Cylons will have to kill Unagi overnight if he's Good.

I guess the other way we could go is agree that Gaeta must come forward today and if he comes forward tomorrow, he must be a Cylon and lynch him. We need all the cards on the table today (with the exception of Anders) as we aren't going to have enough Misses left to figure out another Contest.

As much as it pains me because I think posting once and disappearing is a crummy way to play, I'm putting tru1cy in the Good column.

Let me be less subtle - did anyone else go back and see if it made any sense that Punisher was Tigh?

Would really love to hear more from Chaos as well.

I'm pretty sure we won't hear from El Guapo again until Monday.

Just got off work, have a few errands to run.

Assuming I should read before voting

Ok deadline is a ways off.

Perhaps we won't have a repeat of the Scoop vote before I get to read.

Man, I keep going back to why Unagi came out as Apollo it makes no sense to do that, I was going to get lynched no matter what and that paints a target on his back for no reason... I don't get it at all, why the reveal, what's the agenda of the wolf by going that way...

I'm confused.

Theoretically, if he is telling the truth your partner could kill him and we wouldn't know the truth.

Was it Punisher?

Chaosraven wrote:Was it Punisher?

What does that mean?

I took a look around the cabin and noticed tru1cy has been locked in a room since Tuesday. Hope he's okay.

stessier wrote:

Chaosraven wrote:Was it Punisher?

What does that mean?

Goading Vorret...

Unagi as Apollo claims Punisher was Tigh.

Chaosraven wrote:

stessier wrote:

Chaosraven wrote:Was it Punisher?

What does that mean?

Goading Vorret...

Unagi as Apollo claims Punisher was Tigh.

Just end me or vote unagi i have nothing else to add at this point.

So no more discussion?

I'm going to a job interview Tue-Thur this coming week, and then it's Memorial Day weekend. If there is more discussion to be had, it would be nice to get it done before Tuesday.

Well, I think if I can get you to agree to my plan we'll be golden.

Did you go back and see if Punisher made sense as Tigh?

Is there a circumstance where a person's claim of Tigh was so outrageous that you were willing to lynch them rather than someine claiming Apollo who confirmed that Tigh was lying?

stessier wrote:Did you go back and see if Punisher made sense as Tigh?

Is there a circumstance where a person's claim of Tigh was so outrageous that you were willing to lynch them rather than someine claiming Apollo who confirmed that Tigh was lying?

Why don't you tell us what you've found?

This isn't a "WHEN YOU SEE IT...!" situation. What do you see?.

Because it seems like we are the only two playing and while I think you are wrong, I don't think you are Evil wrong.

stessier wrote:Because it seems like we are the only two playing and while I think you are wrong, I don't think you are Evil wrong.

Stessier and I declare victory. Game over!

stessier wrote:Did you go back and see if Punisher made sense as Tigh?

Is there a circumstance where a person's claim of Tigh was so outrageous that you were willing to lynch them rather than someine claiming Apollo who confirmed that Tigh was lying?

I really, really was trying to avoid doing a reread this game (experimenting with a different game play method). So can you do me a solid and give us the rundown, in spoilers of course, in case someone wishes to do the leg work.

Right now, I still think lynching Vorret is our best bet. I still think Unagi is the 2nd wolf.

I still dont support Holman's play. Simply because I think Vorret is guilty, and am pretty dogmatic about it. What stinks is we have no real way of knowing if we are right and wrong (dang you rule set!) except if you believe unag-pollo (which i dont).

I think we are waiting on a bit more from CR and of course truicy to check in.

stessier wrote:Because it seems like we are the only two playing and while I think you are wrong, I don't think you are Evil wrong.

I just think stubborn, though at times been wondering if its an Evil play...going out on such a limb, so that way it gives villagers credentials. Though there is no certain way of knowing the alignment of vorret hence cant confer anything to anyone once lynched.

I just think Holman is wrong. Sorry Holman.

And where was Elg disappearing to?

 Vorret 
 

With Vorret's self-vote, that's N-1, right?

For the second time, I believe.

Which begs the question why.

Well, this time it might very well be because he voted for himself and two Wolves are there too.

Or will be.

Hey El Guapo - what are your thoughts?

 withdraw vorret 
 



 truicy 
 



for now...

/sets up a blind near airlock button
/types into his data pod "superior scooping status achieved"

Tru1cy hasn't logged in since last Tuesday.

Holman wrote:

Unagi wrote:I don't follow you there at all. Could you phrase that in some other way?

You came out when there was no risk in coming out.

FWIW I don't think that's the case. When he came out the winds were blowing against Vorret and there wasn't much heat on Unagi. Coming out then would risk drawing attention to him probably unnecessarily at a time when (in the Wolf Unagi scenario) the village is moving towards lynching their scanner.

I'm assuming that Wolf Unagi would only spoof Apollo in a situation where the wolves scanned Apollo and killed him already, so there would be no risk of that.

stessier wrote: Also, I think the Cylons will have to kill Unagi overnight if he's Good.

If we lynch Vorret now and Unagi is still alive tomorrow, what do you think we should do?

Newcastle wrote:

Holman wrote:

stessier wrote:

Holman wrote:No, the Cylons won't kill Unagi even if he's good, so we'll be having the same debate tomorrow with the same information deficit.

Yes they will if it gives them a clear shot at a Gaeta claim. Do you agree any Gaeta appearance tomorrow is an automatic lynch?

At this point the only possible Gaeta claimant is Tru1cy, right?

I don't know if he would be an auto lynch or not. I would hope to hear from him before today's lynch. (In fact, depending on how set in stone Newcastle's vote is, I'm not sure we can get a majority either way without him.)

I'd really like to hear from some other players about my proposal to lynch Unagi for the information gain.

I need to think about it. While i am about 95% that Unagi is a wolf; i am more certain that vorret is. The bird in hand thing. I want to reread your proposal. Just skimmed it to be honest. I'd be open to it, simply because I think unagi & vorret are our unfriendly toasters in this neighborhood. In terms of data points you suggest I want to reread it with some more coffee in me.

This is weird. Why would you be voting for Vorret if you're 95% sure that Unagi is a wolf, and an Unagi lynch yields information but a Vorret lynch doesn't?

Newcastle wrote:regarding the Holman scenario he proposes.

I tend to agree with Stessier's take on this, and that being IF Unagi is indeed Apollo they will kill him at night. I think its wise to remind everyone of one clear fact. Unagi is an incredible brain in this game. Second to Grund...i think that's fair to say. I think a "proven" unagi creates a serious threat to the wolves. Because we all follow him and listen to him bigly...so with the moniker of being proven...as a wolf that's a dire threat.

So i still come around to lynching Vorret, and tomorrow let's see where the dust settles.

Apollo is not a provable role, though.

Vorret wrote:Man, I keep going back to why Unagi came out as Apollo it makes no sense to do that, I was going to get lynched no matter what and that paints a target on his back for no reason... I don't get it at all, why the reveal, what's the agenda of the wolf by going that way...

I'm confused.

I am inclined to agree that it wouldn't make sense for Unagi to come out then, but then I think that's the case regardless of whether he's a wolf or not. If anything the villager case for coming out ("hey guys I have relevant information, you are right about Vorret!") makes more sense to me than the wolf case for coming out ("hey I know you are probably going to lynch an innocent Vorret soon, so let me put the spotlight on me!").

Newcastle wrote: withdraw vorret 
 



 truicy 
 



for now...

/sets up a blind near airlock button
/types into his data pod "superior scooping status achieved"

Do you have an actual case to make against tru1cy, or are you just positioning yourself for Scooping?

Vorret wrote: WD Unagi 
 


 Vorret 
 


there let me give you a hand

I never know what to make of the self-vote. Seems like generally it winds up being done by frustrated villagers rather than wolves, but then it's ripe for abuse by a wolf on that basis.

stessier wrote:Hey El Guapo - what are your thoughts?

I think the case against Vorret is stronger than the case against Unagi, but I am a little troubled by the lack of information coming out of a Vorret lynch.

Gaming out the error costs here. WWVVVVVV

Vorret is a wolf, but we lynch Unagi


Unagi comes back human. After night kill (assuming for the moment that the wolves don't hit Anders), we are WWVVVV

Tomorrow, we lynch Vorret. After night kill (same assumption) we are WVVV

Then the remaining villagers are picking out the final wolf from among a group of three.

Unagi is a wolf, we lynch Vorret

Vorret comes back cylon. After night kill (wolves avoid Anders) we are WWVVVV.

Next day after Unagi survives the night kill, we probably lynch him. Then after night kill we're WVVV.

Hmmm. Not sure the error cost is all that different now that I think more about it. The only real nightmare scenario would be if neither Unagi nor Vorret is a wolf, and I don't think that's possible due to the conflicting Tigh claims.

Basically, if Unagi is innocent and Vorret is guilty, we're probably still going to wind up lynching Unagi one way or another, right? Either we lynch him today (and then Vorret tomorrow), or we lynch Vorret, the wolves quite possibly leave Unagi alone, then we probably wind up lynching him tomorrow.

El Guapo wrote:Hmmm. Not sure the error cost is all that different now that I think more about it. The only real nightmare scenario would be if neither Unagi nor Vorret is a wolf, and I don't think that's possible due to the conflicting Tigh claims.

That's not possible but Unagi and Vorret BOTH being wolves is totally possible and should not be ignored.

It looks like Vorret will be lynched today, and we'll be at basically the same place tomorrow morning. (I really don't think the Wolves will kill Unagi.)