Octopus Overlords

Zarathud wrote:Why did the wolves work so hard to spare Archinerd if he is a survivor?

That is not the question. The question is why Punisher over Holman.

Punisher did not believe that Archinerd was a threat and didn't list him in his top wolf list or vote for him. Whereas Holman did vote for Archinerd.

Remus West wrote:Grabbed from where bb2112 quoted it (obviously)

bb2112 wrote:

Newcastle wrote:DAY 3 VOTES

N-1


VOTE TARGET - Votes Cast

Unagi (2)- El Guapo, Archinerd,
RMC (6) - Zarathud, BB2112, Vorret, Unagi, Stessier, Moliere,
Zarathud (1) - RMC,

Not Voted
Holman, Punisher, Isgrimnur, Remus West,

Majority is 7
Time limits - Voting will close on Monday June 26th at 6 PM PST (9EST)

If there are any issues, give me a holler

THE DEAD
Chaosraven – Raving all night long
Scoop – SPLAT!
Lassr – Hugger of Beemer walker

Posted for examination later.

As I know I'm innocent that means all 4 wolves have voted. Makes me feel like Zarathud must be good because would they put the only targets as their own?


Here's my last thing for right now. When stessier claimed Glen nobody contested him - but T-Dog had been outed and Lassr killed instead of killing Scoop at night. Why was Lassr killed? Only thing that makes sense was he scanned as Special. Only special not openly claimed AND proven is Glen. When stessier came forward the wolves would have been looking at knowing 2 Specials and a dead Lassr (potentially special). Claiming Rick is a non-starter. If he is still alive (i.e. Not Lassr) he shoots you because he knows you're lying. If he is dead you know he is dead and the village then asks you to shoot and prove yourself - failure to do so means you get lynched. So false Rick claim = death. False Glen claim though is a different story. Dead Glen and you face no counter. Live Glen and you face a counter but no shooter (again, assuming Lassr was Special). If you're the Berserker faking Glen makes sense.


I think my list is currently
Archinerd
Moliere
stessier

in that order. Need to check the math on how long we have though.

Looking at this, it was the RMC run-up that led RMC to coming out as Seer, right? There are 4 wolves at this point.

So this wasn't a vote to have RMC explode. The plan all along was to have RMC claim Seer. There are 4 wolves. Would only 1 take the advantage of future cover by voting for him?

RMC votes for Zarathud - have to admit Remus has some logic behind his comments on that.

But that leaves me with 2 wolves from the set {bb2112, Remus, Archinerd}. In that situation, I have Unagi & RMC with unknown wolf on a team looking for a convert. So either {Remus or bb2112} was on the team or a Convert. I can't imagine Unagi & RMC converting either - which makes Archinerd the Convert and one of {Remus, bb2112} as one of the original. Unless Zarathud was on the original team, in which case Unagi & RMC could plan on Zarathud's newness getting him through and then they would feel safe converting {Remus, bb2112}. In which case Remus' "logic" goes out the window as he could be covering for his buddy.

I hate this part of the game.

bb2112 wrote:

Zarathud wrote:Why did the wolves work so hard to spare Archinerd if he is a survivor?

That is not the question. The question is why Punisher over Holman.

Punisher did not believe that Archinerd was a threat and didn't list him in his top wolf list or vote for him. Whereas Holman did vote for Archinerd.

I can think of a few reasons the wolves might have preferred killing Punisher. His shooting RMC. Throw suspicion on Remus. He's not predictable other than voting for Remus.

Holman may have been left alive because of his repeated willingness to lynch me.

But the night kills provide less incriminating info than the day discussion. I think the wolves are relying on the lack of momentum on the Archinerd vote.

Remus made sense in the stessier quotes, and I don't see the survivors willing to lynch Remus or BB anyway. I am willing to vote either Archinerd or stessier.

DAY 6


Time Limits- Day 6 will end on Wednesday July 19th at 6 PM PST (9EST)
Note - Day 7 will be approximately 4 days


VOTE TARGET - Votes Cast



Not Voted
Zarathud, Holman, Stessier, Archinerd, BB2112, Remus West,

Majority is 4

If there are any issues, give me a holler

The living
1. Archinerd
2. Holman
3. BB2112
4. Zarathud
5. Remus West
6. Stessier


THE DEAD
Chaosraven – Raving all night long
Scoop – SPLAT!
Lassr – Hugger of Beemer walker
Unagi - Tasty Walker Morsel Treat
El Guapo - Bulldozing away.
RMC - Met Rick's Python
Vorret - Mechanic Mike’s munchable
Isgrinmur – Bay door blues
Moliere - Feeling a bit Glassy
Punisher - Having a grate time

I can't help but feel it is bb2112 and Remus. They haven't been trying to kill each other nearly enough. I guess I will just have to give them props if they were gutsy enough to choose that grouping.

 Archinerd 
 

stessier wrote:I can't help but feel it is bb2112 and Remus. They haven't been trying to kill each other nearly enough. I guess I will just have to give them props if they were gutsy enough to choose that grouping.

 Archinerd 
 

Thats an abrupt about face from yesterday.

Rereading the day Scoop got lynched made me more certain that stessier is a bad guy. He may not have voted for Scoop but he worked very hard to make it happen.

 stessier 
 


I'm not moving that vote today.

stessier wrote:I can't help but feel it is bb2112 and Remus. They haven't been trying to kill each other nearly enough. I guess I will just have to give them props if they were gutsy enough to choose that grouping.

 Archinerd 
 

If you think it is me (you are wrong there, I am not a wolf) or Remus why are you voting Archinerd?

Because I think it is only one of you then the convert. I think the Convert is Archinerd.

stessier wrote:I can't help but feel it is bb2112 and Remus. They haven't been trying to kill each other nearly enough. I guess I will just have to give them props if they were gutsy enough to choose that grouping.

stessier wrote:Because I think it is only one of you then the convert. I think the Convert is Archinerd.

This is weird. You immediately contradict the first post in trying to explain it.

You say it's bb2112 and Remus. But if you think only one of them is a wolf, what is "They haven't been trying to kill each other nearly enough" supposed to mean?

So it's going to come down to voting on the stessier v Remus on the "uncontested special"?

Never mind the Scoop vote, yesterday stessier pushed so hard and illogically on a miss that he stinks of wolf. It's possible the wolves drove a lynch of one survivor hoping we'd come back on the other. Yesterday stessier was "certain" it was Archinerd and Moliere.

What say you on voting stessier, Holman?

Hahaha - okay then. Have fun.

Zarathud wrote: What say you on voting stessier, Holman?

I'm suspicious of him. Also of you. I'll need a reread.

Zarathud wrote:So it's going to come down to voting on the stessier v Remus on the "uncontested special"?

Never mind the Scoop vote, yesterday stessier pushed so hard and illogically on a miss that he stinks of wolf. It's possible the wolves drove a lynch of one survivor hoping we'd come back on the other. Yesterday stessier was "certain" it was Archinerd and Moliere.

What say you on voting stessier, Holman?

Maybe I need a reread but I could swear that yesterday he said it wasn't Archinerd.
 Zarathud[\accuse]
the day Scoop got lynched looks really bad for stessier but it doesn't look any better for Zarathud. Nor does any other part of the game. 
 

 Zarathud 
 


Phone posting sucks

DAY 6

TIME LIMITS - 72 Hours until Day 6 ends

Time Limits- Day 6 will end on Wednesday July 19th at 6 PM PST (9EST)
Note - Day 7 will be approximately 4 days


VOTE TARGET - Votes Cast
Archinerd (1) - Stessier,
Zarathud (1) - Remus West,

Not Voted
Zarathud, Holman, Archinerd, BB2112,

Majority is 4

If there are any issues, give me a holler

The living
1. Archinerd
2. Holman
3. BB2112
4. Zarathud
5. Remus West
6. Stessier


THE DEAD
Chaosraven – Raving all night long
Scoop – SPLAT!
Lassr – Hugger of Beemer walker
Unagi - Tasty Walker Morsel Treat
El Guapo - Bulldozing away.
RMC - Met Rick's Python
Vorret - Mechanic Mike’s munchable
Isgrinmur – Bay door blues
Moliere - Feeling a bit Glassy
Punisher - Having a grate time

Seriously, Remus?

Remus West wrote: stessier

I'm not moving that vote today.

How about you reread what I posted? If you're going to vote for me after all this, you need your head examined.

Let's look at the votes again:
Day 1 - 3 wolves
Chaos - Remus, stessier, Punisher, Vorret, Zarathud, RMC, BB2112, Moliere, Lassr
Unagi - Scoop20906
Remus - Chaos
BB2112 - Isgrimnur
Moliere - El Guapo
None - Archinerd, Unagi, Holman
9 Votes on the MISS lynch - 4 survivors, 4 unknowns, 1 wolf. 1 wolf (Unagi) abstained.

Day 2 - 4 wolves
Scoop 20906 - El Guapo, Zarathud, Holman, Unagi, Isgrimnur, Archinerd, Moliere, RMC
Moliere - Scoop20906
Zarathud - Remus West
None - Vorret, BB2112, Lassr, Punisher, Stessier,
8 Votes on the MISS lynch - 4 survivors, 2 unknowns, 2 wolves. Unknowns on the lynch - Zarathud and Archinerd.

Day 3 - 4 wolves
Unagi - Moliere, Remus, stessier,El Guapo, Holman, BB2112, Zarathud
RMC - Vorret, Archinerd, Isgrimnur
El Guapo - RMC, Unagi
None - Punisher
7 Votes on the WOLF lynch - 3 survivors, 4 unknowns. Unknown not on the on lynch - Archinerd. Other lynch candidate was also a WOLF.

Day 4 - 3 wolves
RMC - Zarathud, Archinerd
Holman - RMC
Lynch aborted due to Punisher's shot

Day 4 - 2 wolves
Vorret - Archinerd, Moliere, BB2112,Isgrimnur, Punisher, stessier
Moliere -Vorret
stessier - Remus, Holman, Zarathud
6 Votes on the MISS lynch - 3 survivors, 3 unknowns. Unknown NOT on the Lynch - Zarathud, Remus

Day5 - 2 wolves
Archinerd - Zarathud, Holman, Moliere
Moliere - Stessier, Archinerd, Punisher, BB2112, Remus West
5 Votes on the MISS lynch - 1 survivor, 4 unknowns. Late movers - Remus, BB2112. Unknown NOT on the Lynch - Zarathud

1 - Archinerd - Not a single vote on a successful wolf lynch. All other votes for misses.
2 - Holman (Proven) - Voted Scoop, but voted for the Unagi lynch.
3 - BB2112 - Abstained on Scoop and voted for Unagi lynch, but voted on 3 misses.
4 - Zarathud - Voted Scoop and 1 miss, but voted for BOTH Unagi and RMC (before the shot). Last votes were for stessier and Archinerd instead of MISSES.
5 - Remus - Didn't vote for Scoop, voted for the Unagi lynch. Goes his own way, but not on any likely lynches. Seems to jump whenever a lynch seems likely.
6 - Stessier - Abstained on Scoop, voted for the Unagi lynch. Kill vote on Vorret and pushed hard on the Moliere miss. Claimed under suspicious circumstances.

Looking at the votes, Archinerd jumps out as suspicious. My intuition screams Stessier based on how the last few votes went down, and looking for where the other wolf could hide. I think either would be a good vote, but the village has to be 100% together and 100% right or it's game over.

But Remus seems determined to fuck up the vote. If he's still voting for me at this point, either he's not thinking straight or trying to give the game to the wolves. I really haven't been sure which since Day 4.

Zarathud wrote: But Remus seems determined to fuck up the vote. If he's still voting for me at this point, either he's not thinking straight or trying to give the game to the wolves. I really haven't been sure which since Day 4.

Ok, you misrepresented me a little because I did help smoke out RMC and he got shot so I didn't need to vote. But putting that aside for a moment. How can you be so convinced Remus is a good guy? You didn't mention the possibility that he is a wolf trying to steer us in a direction to win the game for team bad?

Zarathud wrote: Looking at the votes, Archinerd jumps out as suspicious. My intuition screams Stessier based on how the last few votes went down, and looking for where the other wolf could hide. I think either would be a good vote, but the village has to be 100% together and 100% right or it's game over.

But Remus seems determined to fuck up the vote. If he's still voting for me at this point, either he's not thinking straight or trying to give the game to the wolves. I really haven't been sure which since Day 4.

Oh, and after rereading your post, your intuition screams Stessier, but Remus has been pushing us to go after Stessier. So you think Remus has been trying to "fuck up the vote" or "not thinking straight or trying to give the game to the wolves" since Day 4 but has been pushing for Stessier since about Day 4 or 5?

bb2112 wrote:

Zarathud wrote: But Remus seems determined to fuck up the vote. If he's still voting for me at this point, either he's not thinking straight or trying to give the game to the wolves. I really haven't been sure which since Day 4.

Ok, you misrepresented me a little because I did help smoke out RMC and he got shot so I didn't need to vote. But putting that aside for a moment. How can you be so convinced Remus is a good guy? You didn't mention the possibility that he is a wolf trying to steer us in a direction to win the game for team bad?

He's misrepresented quite a few things in that analysis, including his characterization of himself.

Read Remus's last post -- Stessier forever then voting for me.

Remus has been contrary on voting since Day 2. If the knowns didn't all come out early (funny, that), a live Remus would be very suspicious. I'm not sure about him, but his frustration seems genuine.

I also didn't mention the possibility of BB being a wolf, but I think that's unlikely and the village needs to come to an agreement as much as get it right.

I put together a damn Excel chart to sort through the votes last night. What have you contributed to the slim chances of the village, Archinerd?

stessier wrote:I can't help but feel it is bb2112 and Remus. They haven't been trying to kill each other nearly enough. I guess I will just have to give them props if they were gutsy enough to choose that grouping.

 Archinerd 
 

This is troubling and not because you are voting for me.

Zarathud wrote:Read Remus's last post -- Stessier forever then voting for me.

Remus has been contrary on voting since Day 2. If the knowns didn't all come out early (funny, that), a live Remus would be very suspicious. I'm not sure about him, but his frustration seems genuine.

I agree. Remus does need to explain why he moved his vote from Stessier a bit better. Stessier's reasoning is highly suspicious. I'm more curious why Remus has any doubt about Stessier than his reasons for voting for you.

Zarathud wrote: I also didn't mention the possibility of BB being a wolf, but I think that's unlikely and the village needs to come to an agreement as much as get it right.

I put together a damn Excel chart to sort through the votes last night. What have you contributed to the slim chances of the village, Archinerd?

What you fail to consider with me specifically is that I DID vote for both Unagi and RMC. If you'll remember the village moved the votes away from Unagi to RMC then back again, it's even in the results you posted.

RMC was shot before we could lynch him (which you somehow give yourself credit for).

Another thing you forgot to mention how you insisted that Scoop was still somehow lying when it was obvious he was not. But that's not in the official tallies so it shouldn't be brought up, right?

I'm frustrated because I can make an argument for any one of RW, Stess, Archinerd or Zarathud.

Ok, I am going to take Stess off my list. If he spoofed Glen when and how he did, then that was one of the greatest spoof jobs of all time and he deserves the win and to go down in OO WW history.

So that leaves RW, Archinerd and Zarathud. 2 wolves out of 3.

We have to get this right today. Holman, what are your thoughts?

Votes on the Scoop lynch were 1/2 to 3/4 survivor. I was not alone on that vote.

If stessier is out of consideration, I would say Archinerd then Remus.

The math works out for the survivors only if Holman is making the call. I'll follow it.

I really hope no one is expecting me to win this game for them. I suck at this part.

I don't suspect Remus, and I haven't seen a real case for doing so. Remus tried to pry us off of Scoop/T-Dog when letting it go forward would have been the easiest thing in the world, and I don't believe he was shamming his concern.

Stessier still hasn't offered an explanation for his weird posts seeming to claim that Remus, bb2112, and Archinerd were all somehow our two remaining wolves.

Looking back at the lines of standoff, I'm suspicious that Zarathud and bb2112 might be a pair.

What happens if I do this?

 bb2112 
 

Shot in the dark, but I'd vote it. So will the wolves.

Holman wrote:I really hope no one is expecting me to win this game for them. I suck at this part.

I don't suspect Remus, and I haven't seen a real case for doing so. Remus tried to pry us off of Scoop/T-Dog when letting it go forward would have been the easiest thing in the world, and I don't believe he was shamming his concern.

Stessier still hasn't offered an explanation for his weird posts seeming to claim that Remus, bb2112, and Archinerd were all somehow our two remaining wolves.

Looking back at the lines of standoff, I'm suspicious that Zarathud and bb2112 might be a pair.

What happens if I do this?

 bb2112 
 

You take the first step to losing.

Flashlights came on and pierced the darkness around them. They swept by a rusting iron grate a few feet up the tunnel and as they did so Walkers immediately crowded the corroding bars; growling, snarling and snapping at the survivors. Stessier’s flashlight pointed at the rusted out edges of the bars. “The grates are pretty damn rusty and aren’t gonna hold long with those things. Better get a move on.”

(all write ups are flavor)



DAY 6

TIME LIMITS - 57 Hours until Day 6 ends
MOD note - The time limits are not set in stone provided there is enough support amongst the players to extent them and they say please.


Time Limits- Day 6 will end on Wednesday July 19th at 6 PM PST (9EST)
Note - Day 7 will be approximately 4 days


VOTE TARGET - Votes Cast
Archinerd (1) - Stessier,
Zarathud (1) - Remus West,
BB2112 (1) - Holman,

Not Voted
Zarathud, Archinerd, BB2112,

Majority is 4

If there are any issues, give me a holler

The living
1. Archinerd
2. Holman
3. BB2112
4. Zarathud
5. Remus West
6. Stessier


THE DEAD
Chaosraven – Raving all night long
Scoop – SPLAT!
Lassr – Hugger of Beemer walker
Unagi - Tasty Walker Morsel Treat
El Guapo - Bulldozing away.
RMC - Met Rick's Python
Vorret - Mechanic Mike’s munchable
Isgrinmur – Bay door blues
Moliere - Feeling a bit Glassy
Punisher - Having a grate time

Zarathud wrote:Shot in the dark, but I'd vote it. So will the wolves.

Why do you trust bb2112?

stessier wrote:

Zarathud wrote:Shot in the dark, but I'd vote it. So will the wolves.

Why do you trust bb2112?

Zarathud wrote:Votes on the Scoop lynch were 1/2 to 3/4 survivor. I was not alone on that vote.

If stessier is out of consideration, I would say Archinerd then Remus.

The math works out for the survivors only if Holman is making the call. I'll follow it.

Yeah, I was surprised by the bolded comment too. As Lassr would say, it is as if he trying to cozy up to me. Good think Lassr is dead, or he would take my comment as me trying to cozy up to him.

BB has provided consistently helpful analysis. Hasn't voted questionably. Hasn't been erratic. Hasn't been a primary mover on a miss vote that I recall. I decided a few days ago that if BB is a wolf, he hasn't seemed to help them and there's no way the village will "catch" him unless we shoot blindly.

But then I'll follow Holman voting BB if necessary because without Holman voting for a wolf, the survivors lose. It's not 100% on him because the entire village has to get it right, too.

I have also been consistent that I think stessier and Remus are likely on opposite sides. The same logic applies. If stessier isn't getting Holman's vote (for whatever reason), then the other possible solution is unknown Remus as deep wolf following the Scoop vote. Not sure why that's surprising. Been saying that for a few days now.

It's not 100% trusting BB. There is less reason to vote BB than Remus. It's simple math and probability, coupled with factual history of their play.

So you think BB is probably a good guy but would vote for him because Holman is?

And despite your "careful" analysis you are willing to take a blind chance?

Zarathud wrote:Shot in the dark, but I'd vote it. So will the wolves.

I think I've made up my mind who I'm voting for at this point but I'd still like to give Remus a chance to comment on why he moved his vote.

If we were to lynch a Beserker today, we could still win right?
I think we'd be left with 3 total ( 2 survivors & 1 wolf).
No room for error but still a chance.

Archinerd wrote:So you think BB is probably a good guy but would vote for him because Holman is?

Slim chance is better than no chance.

Going your own way guarantees a survivor loss. I hope that math is clear for everyone.

I am pretty sure Archinerd is a wolf. I have been trying to get him lynched for days and it keeps stalling out. I really really hope I'm not wrong. I go back and forth between Remus and Zarathud on who is the second wolf.

Holman is wrong, wrong, wrong, I wish team wolf would have killed him last night instead of Punisher. Sorry, Holman, just my frustration coming through. I know you are proven and you don't have the same level of insight as we do since we know what our own individual roles are as well as yours. But Punisher didn't think Archinerd was a wolf and he wanted to lynch Remus. I can't help thinking that played a factor in his death over yours.

That all being said, I think this is the right call for today.

 Archinered 
 


If we survive today, tomorrow is going to suck even worse.

bb2112 wrote:I know you are proven and you don't have the same level of insight as we do since we know what our own individual roles are as well as yours.

Well I never claimed THAT.

One thing I've been thinking about:

There are four villagers and two wolves left. Majority is four. If we miss today, we lose the game. (We'll wake up 2-2 tomorrow with three votes required for any lynch.)

This means that, if there are ever two villagers voting on a villager today, the wolves need only pile on immediately and finish the game.

If (assuming that there has been enough time for both wolves to look in), we see a vote holding at two, we'll know that at least one of them (either the victim or one/both voters) is a wolf.

Holman wrote:

bb2112 wrote:I know you are proven and you don't have the same level of insight as we do since we know what our own individual roles are as well as yours.

Well I never claimed THAT.

You don't have to claim it. It is fact.

Holman wrote: One thing I've been thinking about:

There are four villagers and two wolves left. Majority is four. If we miss today, we lose the game. (We'll wake up 2-2 tomorrow with three votes required for any lynch.)

This means that, if there are ever two villagers voting on a villager today, the wolves need only pile on immediately and finish the game.

If (assuming that there has been enough time for both wolves to look in), we see a vote holding at two, we'll know that at least one of them (either the victim or one/both voters) is a wolf.

Yes, this is what happens when it gets to one last miss. Another reason why I think Archinerd is the right choice today. It has been almost impossible to get him lynched.

Holman wrote: This means that, if there are ever two villagers voting on a villager today, the wolves need only pile on immediately and finish the game.

Unless one of them is already voting for me.

 Stessier 
 


Zarathud seems like the likely 2nd wolf but I wouldn't be surprised if it's Remus or even BB now.
Zarathud could potentially be a misguided villager, but Stessier's deception seems intentional at this point.
None of this may matter though, because we lose if I'm lynched and I don't seem able to earn back any trust. Oh well.