Oblivion - out before the end of the year?

farley2k · Post by **farley2k** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 1:47 pm

I thought it would be fun to guess now and see who is right when the end of the year rolls around. It is always interesting to dig up these threads months from now to see what people thought

Austin · Post by **Austin** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 1:48 pm

Yes? I'm an optimist prime.

philosophist · Post by **philosophist** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 2:05 pm

hell no

Programmer · Post by **Programmer** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 2:08 pm

No, because I won't be done saving up for the inevitable PC upgrades by then. Morrowind was a $500 purchase for me

Suitably Ironic Moniker · Fri Apr 22, 2005 2:22 pm

I didn't see the option for "You posted this in the wrong forum", so I just voted yes

.

Lee · Post by **Lee** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 2:26 pm

No way in hell...remember how many times Morrowind was pushed back? That's fine with me though, I would rather wait for them to squish the bugs and release a better product. Even though a huge game like that will still be bug ridden.

Bakhtosh · Post by **Bakhtosh** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 2:27 pm

Moving to Unreleased Games.

WooHoo...first use of Mod powers in this forum...

Torfish · Post by **Torfish** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 3:05 pm

I would rather it come out in 2006. I want this baby to be as polished and bug free as possible. It could be the ultimate RPG single-player game ever!

jg93 · Post by **jg93** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 3:29 pm

It's an Xbox 360 launch title - so, yes, it will be out by the end of the year (unless Bethesda really botches something up.)

philosophist · Post by **philosophist** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 3:56 pm

jg93 wrote:It's an Xbox 360 launch title - so, yes, it will be out by the end of the year (unless Bethesda really botches something up.)

Has that been confirmed?

farley2k · Post by **farley2k** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 4:19 pm

philosophist wrote:
jg93 wrote:It's an Xbox 360 launch title - so, yes, it will be out by the end of the year (unless Bethesda really botches something up.)
Has that been confirmed?

And that doesn't make a PC release a sure thing. Like quite a few games perhaps they will take a few extra months to work on the PC version once the Xbox 2 version comes out.

Hetz · Post by **Hetz** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 4:21 pm

Case for release this year:

-Take Two's (the publisher of the game) CEO said in an investors conference a few weeks ago that Oblivion would be out THIS year and help their revenue outlook for THIS year.

-Once Morrowind was announced as coming out, it was not delayed at all. It was delayed for several years prior to being announced.

-All the gaming mags are saying it will be out in Winter of 2005, inlcuding PCGAMER UK saying it was official.

-The whole game world is done already (per the PCGAMER article), they are just adding quests (might even be done with that now) and tweaking the game now.

-The Xbox 360 will be out in WINTER 2005 and Oblivion is heavily rumored to be a launch title for the system.

-The Devs said they want to make a "big splash" at E3. What better way to make a big splash than have a release date of this year (which by the way the poll is going) that nobody will expect.

-They have been working on this game since 2002, with a development team that is MUCH larger than the one for Morrowind.

Hetz · Post by **Hetz** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 4:23 pm

Care to comment on this poll, Kathode?

farley2k · Post by **farley2k** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 4:28 pm

Hetz wrote:Case for release this year:

stuff

Was your opinion ever in doubt?

Butterknife · Post by **Butterknife** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 4:28 pm

Voted "No". I'm a pessimist about anything I really want. Also, I would far rather get the game next year and have it be stellar than get the game this year and have it be mediocre.

Hey Kathode -- I know you guys completely revamped the combat system and I'm looking forward to it. One thought I had while playing Morrowind: Regarding the magic spells, in Morrowind you would typically create some 1-point spells at a spellmaker (cantrips) and then cast them constantly over and over in an attempt to raise your skill.

Have you considered making spellcasting raise skill based on a mana-point cost for the spell? In other words, a 100-mana spell would raise your skill roughly 10 times as much as a 10-mana spell? I think this would have some nice ramifications, encouraging people to cast fewer spells (other than 95% cantrips) but perhaps using them more often in battle and gameplay?

If you decide not to do this, let the modders access this behavior in the code at least (how much experience is given per casting/mana amount). I would love a mod like this if it weren't in the game. While there is the potential for abuse (cast a large spell, rest, cast again) I don't think it's any different than the abuses that existed in Morrowind (cast cantrip, cantrip, cantrip ad nauseum, rest, etc.)

Hetz · Post by **Hetz** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 4:30 pm

Here is another case for release this year, hot off the presses from the official forum:

In a thread where someone pointed out that the latest PC GAMER (USA Edition) has a little blurb on Oblivion at E3 and states it's a 2006 release...a developer (Matt Ryan) said this:

Dum-dee-dum-dum. *cooking up more crow for the media folks*

Hetz · Post by **Hetz** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 4:39 pm

Butterknife wrote:Voted "No". I'm a pessimist about anything I really want. Also, I would far rather get the game next year and have it be stellar than get the game this year and have it be mediocre.

What about if you could have it out this year AND it be stellar? Is that not possible?

Butterknife · Post by **Butterknife** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 4:46 pm

Hetz wrote:
Butterknife wrote:Voted "No". I'm a pessimist about anything I really want. Also, I would far rather get the game next year and have it be stellar than get the game this year and have it be mediocre.

What about if you could have it out this year AND it be stellar? Is that not possible?

Sure, it's possible. But is it likely? Oh wait, I forget who I'm talking to

Actually you're the one who talked me into getting Morrowind and I'll be forever in your debt. I upgraded for that game and will upgrade for this one if necessary too. I will surely be purchasing it, so the only thing right now that would keep me from getting it was if somehow you got to play it ahead of release and suddenly didn't like it. As the series' biggest fanboy, that would be about the only blow that could keep me from getting this game.

But I just don't want to get my hopes up. So, I'll say that I will buy it whenever it comes out, but pleasepleaseplease don't release it until it is ready. My biggest fear is that the game ships unready because the next X-Box needs a hit launch title.

Eightball · Post by **Eightball** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 5:26 pm

I think it'll be out for Christmas. That 4th quarter selling season is a very, very strong selling point.

Plus i'm just hoping to get it for christmas. Happy holidays to MEEEEEE!

Hetz · Post by **Hetz** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 6:33 pm

More confirmation that the 27 people that voted for it not being out this year are wrong...

From Matt Ryan, Developer of Oblivion on an article at RPGDOT saying that the developers at Bethesda are known for being slow and that Oblivion had pretty much no shot of being out this year:

Meh, let them think what they want to think. Our dev cycles have always been between 18 months and 3 years. That's standard across the industry for major/multi-platform/international/AAA titles.

LET THE NAY SAYERS NAY ALL THEY WANT. That's actually GOOD publicity for us for when we hit our ship date on time. I'll make sure to ship a freshly cooked plate of crow for them to eat

In fact, all TES forum junkies should email them after we ship on time and ask "So, how's that yummy crow you've been eating?"

We Elder Scrolls fans are going to have a VERY happy Christmas this year!

Kelric · Post by **Kelric** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 6:38 pm

Oh man, can I even finish Morrowind in time?!

wire · Post by **wire** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 7:07 pm

I've got to try getting back into Morrowind. I've tried in the past and I get bored in the early levels. Wish there was a way to skip the whole starting area and move right into the "meat".

Alefroth · Post by **Alefroth** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 8:05 pm

wire wrote:I've got to try getting back into Morrowind. I've tried in the past and I get bored in the early levels. Wish there was a way to skip the whole starting area and move right into the "meat".

In Morrowind, you can skip just about anything you want, and start the meat anytime you want. What is keeping you in the 'starting area'?

Let's hope Matt Ryan doesn't end up with a plateful of crow.

Ale

Dhruin · Post by **Dhruin** » Fri Apr 22, 2005 9:28 pm

I'll just say I think they want it to be out. Whether that can be achieved or not...

Let's see what E3 reveals in a few weeks.

Lee · Post by **Lee** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 1:16 am

Hetz, I appreciate all the optimism, but nothing you say is evidence has much credit at all. Except one thing, if the publisher is saying it will be out this year and they are counting on the money from that game, then they could push it out the door regardless if it it ready or not. So sure we could get it this year, but it won't be playable until 2006.

Suitably Ironic Moniker · Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:18 am

Or it'll be ready for Christmas.

Hetz · Post by **Hetz** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 7:33 am

Lee wrote:Hetz, I appreciate all the optimism, but nothing you say is evidence has much credit at all. Except one thing, if the publisher is saying it will be out this year and they are counting on the money from that game, then they could push it out the door regardless if it it ready or not. So sure we could get it this year, but it won't be playable until 2006.

So you say a developer on the game saying the media will be eating crow when they say the game won't meet their shipdate of 2005 has no merit at all.

Ok, then...I'm sure the people at RPGDOT which have nothing to do with the making of the game have got all the facts then.

Why are people having such a hard time believing that the game will be out this year? To delay it for no reason to 2006 makes no sense. They would miss the HUGE XBOX 360 launch, which would cost them a ton of money, along with the Christmas season.

If it's done in late 2005, which the developers are claiming it will be, why wouldn't it be released then? It's had three years in development already, how much more time do you think they need? They have a MUCH bigger team working on this than any other game they ever made.

I also don't understand this notion that if it comes out this year, it would be 'rushed' out the door. Ever consider that maybe it might really be DONE and not rushed out the door, if it comes out this year? The game is a lot farther along than many of you think, it seems. There really isn't all that much left to do, besides test and balance the game...which I highly doubt will take more than 7 months, considering they have been testing the game for quite awhile already.

Just wait for E3, many of you are going to be very shocked, it appears.

Lee · Post by **Lee** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 11:06 am

Hetz, it's just that all of us have gotten excited for a game too many times only to see it delayed. For me its going to be a "when I see it, I will believe" it kind of thing. I really hope they are all right, I am waiting for this game more than anything.

moss_icon · Post by **moss_icon** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 11:19 am

i am very much looking forward to the game but whether it comes out in 2005/2006 it seems a thoroughly pointless argument to take either side. i mean, who really cares? so long as it comes out and its amazing, i certainly don't.

kathode · Post by **kathode** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 12:32 pm

I voted

Lee · Post by **Lee** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 12:36 pm

kathode wrote:I voted

Tease!

Hetz · Post by **Hetz** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 12:43 pm

kathode wrote:I voted

Hmm...there is one more YES vote since I looked last...but there is also one more NO vote...

DOH!

WPD · Post by **WPD** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 12:50 pm

I voted yes.

I BELIEVE!

knob · Post by **knob** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 1:08 pm

That's really not fair, kathode

I never really got into Morrowind, but I'll still buy Oblivion, just because I have no sense when it comes to saving.

Dhruin · Post by **Dhruin** » Sat Apr 23, 2005 6:29 pm

Hetz wrote:Ok, then...I'm sure the people at RPGDOT which have nothing to do with the making of the game have got all the facts then.

Not that it matters but since I wrote the RPGDot articles referenced and Matt Ryan (and yourself, I guess), think I'll be eating crow when it ships, I'd like to clarify a couple of things.

The very fact that I included Oblivion in a 2005 RPG roundup surely indicates I think it might ship this year. Remember I wrote this in Dec 2004 -- well before Take Two and a bunch of other comments that might indicate 2005. Here's the full text:

It might be a bit of a stretch to include Oblivion in this list because there’s no official release date and Bethesda has been very selective in the material released so far. That said, Oblivion has been in development since 2002 and developer interviews are clear the major engine features are in place and the team is working hard on content, so the end of 2005 would seem possible. The enormously successful Elder Scrolls series has long set the benchmark for huge, free-roaming gameworlds but listless NPCs, repetitive dungeons and other issues divided opinion on the last instalment, Morrowind. Bethesda has a slew of changes planned, including a complete overhaul of combat to a direct action model and the Radiant AI system, which should give life to NPCs. The small handful of early screenshots have been incredible and if Bethesda can pull everything off - and assuming players embrace the new combat system - this will the one of the biggest releases in recent years.

Right. I actually got some emails saying I must be on drugs to include Oblivion in a 2005 roundup. In the third summary article I said:

It's probably fair to expect Gothic 3 and Elder Scrolls 4: Oblivion to end up in 2006 - Piranha Bytes has yet to publicly release in-game shots for Gothic 3 and Bethesda are renowned (deservedly or not) for slow development times, even assuming Oblivion was intended to ship in 2005 in the first place.

I stand by all of that as written at the time and Matt can politely take his crow elsewhere.

There's no bit that says or is meant to mean "no shot of being out this year", however, in the absence of any firm information from Bethesda and given that more projects run long than not, why wouldn't I think 2006 was a reasonable possibility?

Hetz · Post by **Hetz** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 8:13 am

Matt Ryan did offer this apology today for some of his comments:

"In fact, all TES forum junkies should email them after we ship on time and ask 'So, how's that yummy crow you've been eating?'"

I apologize for saying this. I in no way intended for anyone on these forums to act in anyway that was/will be unprofessional to the media by spaming their mail server. I was more or less saying "Go team!" to the folks on the development team who are working hard to keep up with our aggressive schedule.

On a side note, it pretty much confirms that they are aiming for a release this year.

Hetz · Post by **Hetz** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 8:58 am

And just in case anyone else has any doubts about it coming out this year, I give you this from good ol' Matt Ryan:

Like I said in the other thread, I think it's so cute that they're trying to release what was touted as the Greatest RPG Ever at a time where we would be their rival.

....awwww, isn't that precious?

Note that the game in discussion is Fable on PC - which is scheduled for release in Autumn (Fall) 2005.

rrockw · Post by **rrockw** » Tue Apr 26, 2005 11:22 am

Love your posts Hetz! They are giving me flashbacks to pre Morrowind days lol

farley2k · Post by **farley2k** » Tue Apr 26, 2005 2:24 pm

I am suprised there aren't more "Yes" votes. I guess people are cautious or they just expect a great game and know it takes time.

Hetz · Post by **Hetz** » Tue Apr 26, 2005 2:50 pm

farley2k wrote:I am suprised there aren't more "Yes" votes. I guess people are cautious or they just expect a great game and know it takes time.

Same here. Even after we get the developers of the game basicly flat out saying it will be out this year, there are still a majority of people that think the game will in no way be out this year.

*shrug*

Once E3 comes, many people will be wanting to change their votes... 8)

Octopus Overlords

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