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2020 Hurricane Season

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Isgrimnur
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2020 Hurricane Season

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Aliasbuck
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Aliasbuck »

I forget the exact number, but like 8 of the last 10 years we have had a named storm before June 1st. They should match Atlantic Hurricane Season to the East Pacific and back it up to May 15th. At least I didn't have much to deal with on this one as it made its way up the Florida coast.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Isgrimnur »

CNN

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Tropical Depression Three is forecast to become a tropical storm Tuesday.

Once the system gets upgraded to a tropical storm, meaning winds of 39 mph or greater, it will be named Tropical Storm Cristobal.

"If this occurs before Friday, it will be the earliest in the year for a third named storm on record for the Atlantic basin," CNN Meteorologist Brandon Miller says.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Pyperkub »

ars takes a loot at the season:
The only thing that really serves as a good predictor for a really active hurricane season is if named storms form in the deep tropics, he said. This is an area south of 25°N and east of the Lesser Antilles. "When you get storm formations here prior to June 1, it's typically a harbinger of an extremely active season," he said.

The first two storms this year developed outside of this main development region (as will Cristobal if its earns a name). Nevertheless, most signs continue to point toward an active or very active hurricane season.
Signals for a busy season

It appears increasingly likely that the tropical Pacific Ocean will be cooler than normal or even reach La Niña conditions, which produces weather patterns over the Atlantic more favorable to storm development. And the tropical and subtropical Atlantic remain warmer than normal.

Like most other forecasters, Klotzbach has already predicted an abnormally busy season, with 16 named storms. He may revise that upward with his updated forecast this week. "All in all, signs are certainly pointing towards an active season," he said.
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Alefroth »

Tropical storms are being suppressed by a major saharan dust cloud.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Jaymann »

Isgrimnur wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 12:25 am
Wiki

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Arthur

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They need Karen, Becky and Chad.
Jaymann
]==(:::::::::::::>

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Jaymon
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Jaymon »

I have a bad feeling about Kyle
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malchior
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by malchior »

2020 was already off to a fine start so why not a surprise tropical storm punch in the face for NJ/NYC?

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Isgrimnur »

Hanna

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jztemple2
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by jztemple2 »

Here in Brevard county, FL, it seems like it is not a question of if, but when we are going to get some nasty tropical weather. Feels like we are a nexus for hurricanes sometimes. For instance, Hurricane Matthew in 2018:

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

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Looks like there's a whole line of them forming.
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Isgrimnur »

ABC News
Hurricane Hanna strengthened, with sustained winds of 90 mph, as it made landfall in Texas.

The Category 1 hurricane was moving west at about 8 mph when it made landfall at San Padre Island, about 15 miles north of Port Mansfield, around 5 p.m. local time on Saturday.

Very heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge were currently impacting the south Texas coast, the worst of it south of Corpus Christi, down to the mouth of the Rio Grande River.

While wind and storm surge were notable along the coast this afternoon, very heavy rain and the potential for widespread flash flooding across the Rio Grande Valley is the biggest concern into Saturday night. Rainfall totals over extreme southern Texas to the Mexico border could lead to dangerous flash flooding.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by jztemple2 »

NOAA: Invest 92L Track, Spaghetti Models

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A little too close for my liking.
The book historian Richard Altick once wrote, “There has always been a popular belief that more than casual attention to books is either a symptom or a cause of madness.”

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by jztemple2 »

Hurricane hunter reports that as of right now (midnight EDT) Isaias is now a hurricane with 80mph winds, about 36 hours earlier than expected. Damn, and just six hours ago I told my wife I saw no need to evacuate :|

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

Looking like this is going to be my first hurricane in Charleston. Waiting to hear whether there will be a mandatory evacuation; I wouldn't think so considering the projections for the area (mainly heavy rains), but I don't know how cautious they are here about those things.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

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Ralph-Wiggum wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:42 am
Looking like this is going to be my first hurricane in Charleston. Waiting to hear whether there will be a mandatory evacuation; I wouldn't think so considering the projections for the area (mainly heavy rains), but I don't know how cautious they are here about those things.
Are you in a potential mandatory evacuation zone? Storm surge might be an issue. Here's a good site for information on impacts, NWS Southern Region Tropical Webpage. Look under the Local Products tab. There is nothing issued right now for Charleston, but this is what it looks like for me now. Below is a screen grab of the Wind Threat. The black star is my location.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

I think I'm in the zone that will be the first to get a mandatory evacuation if there is one (James Island). My place is unlikely to be flooded as I'm decently far from any water, at least with a Category 1. But if a really strong hurricane came hit us directly and hit us during the high tide, I think there's potential for most of the island to be under water.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by em2nought »

Hmm, do I get out the already cut to fit plywood and plylox or not? :think: I guess it won't hurt to have them in my 4runner. :think:
Waiting for the tide to bring me a sail.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by jztemple2 »

My neighbors across the street are putting up their window covers, but they are clear plexiglass and will be left up till November :wink:
The book historian Richard Altick once wrote, “There has always been a popular belief that more than casual attention to books is either a symptom or a cause of madness.”

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by em2nought »

jztemple2 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 4:17 pm
My neighbors across the street are putting up their window covers, but they are clear plexiglass and will be left up till November :wink:
I like the plywood because if you lose power for a few days it helps to keep the house cool also.
Waiting for the tide to bring me a sail.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by jztemple2 »

For anyone following this thread and who might be doing their first hurricane preparations, please do NOT put "X"s of tape on the windows. Doesn't do a thing and it's a mess taking off the adhesive. I'm still seeing people do this.
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

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Ralph-Wiggum wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:42 am
Looking like this is going to be my first hurricane in Charleston. Waiting to hear whether there will be a mandatory evacuation; I wouldn't think so considering the projections for the area (mainly heavy rains), but I don't know how cautious they are here about those things.
As of the 5pm update, this is a closeup of the storm track near SC.
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by em2nought »

Looks like an ever so slight jig to the west. :think:
Waiting for the tide to bring me a sail.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by jztemple2 »

em2nought wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:20 pm
Looks like an ever so slight jig to the west. :think:
Yup, and I think we are heading to a hotel inland for the weekend. Not that we expect damage, but we hate being without power.
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by jztemple2 »

Decided not to go to hotel beforehand, especially since they are changing their cancellation policies on the fly. We ride it out and if we lose power we'll pack up some stuff and go stay in a hotel for a few days.

The eyewall has closed on the storm. The Bahamas are going to get another whacking.
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by jztemple2 »

Latest update. The storm centerline track will pass just a few miles east of my house Sunday evening.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Isgrimnur »

Break out the lawn chairs!

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em2nought
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by em2nought »

Isgrimnur wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:12 am
Break out the lawn chairs!
I'm saving my lawn chair for the weather balloons.

Looks like an ever so slight jig back to the east, and a bit slowed down

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Ralph-Wiggum
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

jztemple2 wrote:Latest update. The storm centerline track will pass just a few miles east of my house Sunday evening.

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Eek - good luck! At least it seems like this will be a relatively minor Cat 1; I’m sure you guys have experienced worse.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Kraken »

I just hope it stays on track to bring a good soaking rain to New England. We need it.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by jztemple2 »

Looks like it is still going to clip us with the anticipation of minimum hurricane force winds at our location later in the day on Sunday. I've moved all our flower pots and pool toys inside, otherwise it's just a matter of hanging out at the house, something that the previous experience in 2020 has taught us how to do :roll:.
The book historian Richard Altick once wrote, “There has always been a popular belief that more than casual attention to books is either a symptom or a cause of madness.”

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by jztemple2 »

One thing I hate about hurricanes is that they coming in the summer and early fall. Look at our NWS forecast for Monday, which will probably be as the storm is moving past Georgia...
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 105. Windy, with a southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Heat index values as high as 105? :shock: We went through a hurricane in 2004 where we lost power and the next day was as hot as this Monday is supposed to be. We moved into a hotel for a few days till the power came back 8-). That's our plan if we lost power again.

The only time I can remember that it wasn't bad was in 2005. Hurricane Wilma came across the state and we got lots of rain, but a cold front chased it out and the next day was actually very nice. But that's the rare occurrence.

Now waiting for the 11pm EDT update.
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by YellowKing »

The good news: I'm not on storm team this time, so I won't have to be locked in at the hospital overnight.

The bad news: This is likely going to be such a nothing for our area due to the lower tropical storm winds/speed it will move out of here is that this is EXACTLY the storm you want if you have to pull storm duty.

I'm on a 3-man team, and the rule is you never have to pull storm duty twice in a row. I pulled the last one, so the next in line will get this dud, then I have one more free pass before I'm up.

More good news - we're now in a rental that has ZERO trees around it. Our old house was surrounded by 14 pine trees, so every storm (even small ones) were a bit nerve-wracking. It's nice to not have to stress about that at all.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by msteelers »

The storm keeps inching closer to our area on the Treasure Coast. Luckily, the majority of the hurricane winds are on the east side of the storm. As of the 11pm update, we were almost certain to get tropical storm force winds, but had less than a 5% chance of getting hurricane winds.

I hate that this storm is right on the line for us. I feel like the more prep I do, the weaker the storm will be. We didn’t do any shutters, but we brought the patio furniture in.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by jztemple2 »

Just checked the morning update. The storm has weakened to a tropical storm and supposedly won't re-intensify to hurricane strength. Still on a path to go up the peninsula. They are now forecasting that the most wind we will see tonight here in northern Brevard county near Titusville will be gusts of 60mph, which is about what we could see in a severe thunderstorm. So things are looking up.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by jztemple2 »

It's a little after 5pm EDT here and we are just starting to get significant wind gusts. Estimates are winds no more than 40-60mph with an occasional higher gust. Also the eye isn't going to pass offshore till about ~2am, almost 24 hours behind what they were predicting just a couple of days ago.
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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

The slowdown is going to cause trouble for us in Charleston. Instead of the storm hitting us in the morning on a falling tide, it is now predicted to hit us right at the peak of the full moon high tide. That means we’re now expected to get flooding in at least the vulnerable areas. I don’t think that includes me, at least with the predicted 2 - 4’ storm surge, but I’ve only lived here four months, so who knows.

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Re: 2020 Hurricane Season

Post by jztemple2 »

We're about four hours from the eye passing us and the wind still isn't more than a brisk breeze. Looks like we've ducked a bullet.
The book historian Richard Altick once wrote, “There has always been a popular belief that more than casual attention to books is either a symptom or a cause of madness.”

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