COVID-19 treatment and vaccine update thread

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Good news, although getting them to people is perhaps the harder part.

[Smoove_B]

Now you may disagree with me on this, but I'm starting to think that New Jersey's handling of the vaccination rollout was suboptimal.

Have I painted the picture clear enough yet? I'm hoping to be able to read a detailed report some day about what happened in NY/NJ because I'm guessing it'll be amazing.

[Zaxxon]

Good news, although getting them to people is perhaps the harder part.

And more specifically, this week should be nuts:



Doubling the 2.8M J&J shots to make them comparable to prior metrics, this would be 15.2M + 5.6M = 20.8M doses/week = 2.97M doses/day going forward. The 7-day rolling average as of yesterday was 1.8M, so that's an effective 64% jump.

To take the prior calc I was doing and update it: ~328M US residents * 0.8 = 262.5M to get to Fauci's view of herd immunity, * 2 doses/person = 525M doses, minus 76.9M given so far = 448.1M to go / 2.9M/day= 155 days to go. That'd be August 4, 2021.

Obviously this is subject to lumpiness in doses, whether the infrastructure can scale to actually give 2.9M shots/day (fewer, since J&J count for two but only require one) starting this week, whether all three providers can keep supply at this level, that we have enough arms willing to keep taking the shots, and that we eventually get the minimum age reduced so that the 'unvaccinatable' pile of folks shrinks. And 80% isn't a magic 'we're back to normal now' number.

But when I first did this same calculation on 1/25/21, the target date given the same constraints and the vaccination data at that time was 4/3/22. I like 8/4/21 way more better.

[hitbyambulance]

my initial estimate was in mid-October - i'm going to stay with that one. if it happens sooner, then that's nice and all.

[Zaxxon]

my initial estimate was in mid-October - i'm going to stay with that one. if it happens sooner, then that's nice and all.

Yeah, Biden tweeted this afternoon that we'll have enough doses for 'every American' by the end of May.



I'm still sticking to my hope for my first and/or only dose by the end of June, and would be ecstatic if I have it in May. Not going to plan for that unless the data start to trend that way over the course of weeks. We're certainly not there yet, even with this week's crazy jump.

[AWS260]

Dolly's the best.

[Kraken]

The MA website/appointment system is so munged that a volunteer group has sprung up to help us navigate it.

As the scramble for scarce vaccines intensifies, a band of volunteers has stepped in to accomplish the task that has defeated so many: making an appointment to get a COVID-19 shot.

Massachusetts COVID Vaccination Help, as this posse of mostly young women is called, launched on Feb. 20, and claims to have landed appointments for 450 people as of Monday, through a combination of technological know-how and persistence. And they did it all for free.

But hundreds more are waiting in line for help, a sign of how difficult the process has proven to be.
...
“When someone cancels at 2 a.m., we have insomniac volunteers booking appointments in the middle of the night,” she said. Her group’s volunteers monitor hundreds of vaccine sites and deploy software that will alert them when an opening comes up.

Rastegayeva, a 32-year-old Somerville resident, started out with an e-mail listing tips and tricks for friends trying to sign up their parents. As it was shared on social media, Rastegayeva started to think about people outside her network who don’t have tech-savvy children to help them.

Her husband, Boston University math and statistics professor Jonathan Huggins, created a website that went live the Saturday before last. Through word of mouth and social media, it attracted dozens of volunteers and hundreds of clients within days.

Among the first participants were Lisa Plante, who was trying to get her 73-year-old parents signed up, and Lindsay Halliday, a friend of Plante’s who had volunteered.

Plante, a 37-year-old user experience designer for a financial services company, knows her way around a computer, but she was stymied by the state’s official website. Each time, the appointments were taken before she could complete filling out the form, which requires several pages of information. And each time she lost an appointment, she’d have to start all over again, re-entering the same information again and again.
...
Halliday used software created by another mother on maternity leave, Olivia Adams, to quickly locate available spots. She typed Plante’s parents’ information into a program that would enable her to autofill the form, so there would be no delay in moving forward when an appointment became available. Then she refreshed the page repeatedly until a spot opened.

The volunteers can’t always snare an appointment in 15 minutes, as happened with Plante. Clients who have strict limitations on where and when they will get vaccinated may have to wait days. And as the vaccine supply tightens, the volunteers take longer to get results.
...
even people who understand computers have trouble with the state’s system. Richard Hale Shaw, 67, who worked as technology consultant for most of his career, couldn’t get an appointment for a vaccine, despite hours of trying.

When he turned to Massachusetts COVID Vaccination Help, a volunteer found an appointment in less than three hours. Shaw thinks the state should hire Rastegayeva and her crew to manage the scheduling.

Rastegayeva has recently teamed up with Adams, creator of the vaccine-finding software. Adams said her developers will help streamline processes so more people can be helped, with the ultimate goal — once supply exceeds demand — of establishing a fully automated registration system.

[LordMortis]

Dolly's the best.

Such a great ambassador for being a good neighbor.

[hitbyambulance]

Novavax, phase II:

Results from the phase 2 trials for the recombinant nanoparticle vaccine made by Novavax show >98% seroconversion rates by 14 days after the second dose in both participants aged 18-59 years and 60-84 years

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 21252482v1

[Zaxxon]

For Smoove:

[Hrdina]

My wife just got her first dose of Pfizer on Saturday; second dose is scheduled for the 20th.

I had signed up at the same site as her, but a couple of weeks later, so hopefully I will be getting a "please schedule your appointment" text soon. They sent her a text on Thursday and she immediately set up the Saturday appointment. Despite the chaos of getting signed up, the vaccination site seemed pretty well organized, other than the whiners in line saying "but why do I have to stay here for 15 minutes afterward?"

This site is run by Atlantic Health, in Summit (Union Co) NJ. I will let Smoove comment upon whether that qualifies as the "whiter, wealthier" part of the state. We only qualify for one of those.

[Blackhawk]

For Smoove:

I wouldn't be surprised if that turns out to be the moment the dam burst for the rest of the conservative states.

[dbt1949]

And what, 10% of America has been vaccinated? It will be interesting.

[Zaxxon]

And what, 10% of America has been vaccinated? It will be interesting.

~15% have received at least one dose, not that that alters the point.

[Jeff V]

For Smoove:

I wouldn't be surprised if that turns out to be the moment the dam burst for the rest of the conservative states.

I wouldn't count on it. The yahoos celebrating this are perfectly fine with thousands falling dead if they don't have to be inconvenienced because of it.

[malchior]

This site is run by Atlantic Health, in Summit (Union Co) NJ. I will let Smoove comment upon whether that qualifies as the "whiter, wealthier" part of the state. We only qualify for one of those.

I happen to be working on a data project around vaccine access in NJ. I re-formatted this for BB Code but most of that system is built around white, wealthier with an exception for the site in Morristown/Hackettstown. They are significantly clustered in the wealthier townships. The working hypothesis is this is just following the existing pattern of health care access that was already skewed in this direction.

Atlantic Health's Vaccination locations

• New Jersey
  • Median Income $85751
  • Demographics: 54% White 13% Black 0% Native American 10% Asian 21% Hispanic 2 or more races 2%

• Morris County
  • Median Income $116283
  • Demographics: 70% White 3% Black 0% Native American 11% Asian 14% Hispanic 2 or more races 2%
  • Townships
    • Rockaway
      • Median Income $111026
      • Demographics: 78% White 3% Black 0% American Indian 6% Asian 12% Hispanic 2 or more races 1%
    • Mountain Lakes
      • Median Income $241667
      • Demographics: 81% White 0% Black 0% American Indian 14% Asian 4% Hispanic 2 or more races 1%
    • Morristown
      • Median Income $96545
      • Demographics: 54% White 9% Black 0% American Indian 6% Asian 29% Hispanic 2 or more races 3%

• Passaic County
  • Median Income $77040
  • Demographics: 40% White 10% Black 0% Native American 5% Asian 43% Hispanic 2 or more races 1%
  • Townships
    • Pompton Lakes
      • Median Income $102371
      • Demographics: 69% White 1% Black 0% American Indian 6% Asian 20% Hispanic 2 or more races 2%

• Union County
  • Median Income $80339
  • Demographics: 38% White 20% Black 0% Native American 5% Asian 33% Hispanic 2 or more races 2%
  • Townships
    • Clark
      • Median Income $109678
      • Demographics: 83% White 2% Black 0% Native American 4% Asian 11% Hispanic 2 or more races 0%
    • Summit
      • Median Income $157835
      • Demographics: 69% White 5% Black 0% Native American 9% Asian 13% Hispanic 2 or more races 2%

• Somerset County
  • Median Income $111587
  • Demographics: 54% White 9% Black 0% Native American 18% Asian 15% Hispanic 2 or more races 1%
  • Townships
    • Basking Ridge
      • Median Income $151871
      • Demographics: 68% White 2% Black 0% Native American 21% Asian 6% Hispanic 2 or more races 2%

• Warren County
  • Median Income $84479
  • Demographics: 80% White 5% Black 0% Native American 2% Asian 10% Hispanic 2 or more races 2%
  • Townships
    • Hackettstown
      • Median Income $70234
      • Demographics: 71% White 2% Black 0% Native American 5% Asian 21% Hispanic 2 or more races 1%

Edit: Data from https://censusreporter.org/ <- cool, cool resource. It transforms the nasty csv/excel spreadsheets that the Census Bureau uses into something usable for regular humans.

[Isgrimnur]

For Smoove:

I wouldn't be surprised if that turns out to be the moment the dam burst for the rest of the conservative states.

I wouldn't count on it. The yahoos celebrating this are perfectly fine with thousands falling dead if they don't have to be inconvenienced because of it.

Ladies and gentlemen, it has been an honor posting with you.

[Smoove_B]

I genuinely feel bad for TX OOers and anyone else down there trying to do the right think here. Apparently the message of "we don't want insane virus levels circulating because of the potential for new harmful variants to emerge" completely lost out to the desire to be free. Thankfully we know that the virus won't leave TX so whatever is generated there will simply forever remain in the state borders.

/weeps in corner

[coopasonic]

I genuinely feel bad for TX OOers and anyone else down there trying to do the right think here. Apparently the message of "we don't want insane virus levels circulating because of the potential for new harmful variants to emerge" completely lost out to the desire to be free. Thankfully we know that the virus won't leave TX so whatever is generated there will simply forever remain in the state borders.

/weeps in corner

My wife, who works in a hospital is pretty concerned they will stop requiring masks in the hospital and limiting visitors. She'll still be in PPE with patients but it still concerns her more than little bit.

[hitbyambulance]

for up-and-coming vaccines, one of the interesting ones is Aivita's, using a technology called "modified Antigen-Processing Cell (APC)" - they're one of not-that-many vaccine makers using this approach. from their PR release:

AV-COVID-19 was created using AIVITA's autologous cell therapy platform, which has generated multiple therapeutic vaccine programs shown to be safe and effective in early clinical trials for difficult to treat cancers. Vaccine production begins with a basic blood draw from an individual, from which autologous immune cells are extracted using AIVITA's validated methodologies. These cells are loaded with multiple recombinant SARS-CoV-2 spike antigens to create a vaccine that is specific to each individual. The resulting cells are re-administered to the individual, with the purpose of creating fast immune protection against the coronavirus. A kit containing all materials is provided to local sites, which can carry out steps with minimal equipment, to de-centralize manufacturing.

In preclinical studies, AIVITA has shown that multiple SARS-CoV-2 antigens reacted with natural immunoglobulin antibodies from COVID-19 convalescent patient serum, showing that these antigens are suitable immune targets for SARS-CoV-2 vaccine production. The multiple antigens were loaded onto the dendritic cells and the resulting vaccine mounted an appropriate immune response in lymphocytes from the same recipient. Vaccinated mice were also shown to produce antibodies and a strong cellular immune response very quickly, in a third party GLP setting.

If successful in clinical studies, AV-COVID-19 may offer unique benefits compared to traditional vaccine technologies. Using a provided kit, technicians in thousands of laboratories around the world can create the vaccine quickly for individuals in their area. Many of the kit materials can be sourced from local suppliers, and have multiple alternate suppliers. The distributed kit and vaccine manufacturing model also creates a regional economic stimulus. In addition, new vaccines can be created quickly by altering the antigens provided in the kit, to address mutations of the virus.

Previous studies of AIVITA's cancer immunotherapies using the same approach of loading multiple antigens, in this case from self-renewing tumor-initiating cells, into autologous dendritic cells have demonstrated promising safety and efficacy in multiple cancer types. These cancer immunotherapies are developed with a pan-antigenic approach that targets multiple neoantigens on those cells. AIVITA is advancing clinical vaccine programs in glioblastoma, ovarian cancer, and melanoma.

https://www.biospace.com/article/releas ... -covid-19/

current clinical trial:

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04690387

[Smoove_B]

My wife, who works in a hospital is pretty concerned they will stop requiring masks in the hospital and limiting visitors. She'll still be in PPE with patients but it still concerns her more than little bit.

I would hope the hospitals recognize the potential for insanity and will be operating (no pun intended) under their own mask protocols and continuing to limit visitors regardless of what your Governor proclaims.

[El Guapo]

Just found out that my Dad was able to schedule a (first dose) vaccination appointment for my Mom for next Tuesday, which is exciting. We'd been trying to schedule an appointment + caregiver vaccination for my mom & either me or my sister, but haven't been able to get through on an appointment with any of the Mass Vaccination sites around here. They only offer those at the Mass sites and not at the place where my mom has her appointment, so my sister and I will have to wait, but hopefully will only mean a wait of a couple months-ish.

Also my Dad's getting his second dose today, and my MIL got her first dose this past weekend. So they should all be protected soon, which is good.

[Isgrimnur]

MiL got her first yesterday.

[ImLawBoy]

My folks got their second doses last week (no side effects other than a little soreness). My MIL got her first dose last week (I think - maybe 2 weeks ago).

[hitbyambulance]

apparently Minnesota just got a big bump in supply, and my parents got moved up to today (Moderna)

[Zaxxon]

My Mom got her first dose yesterday.

[LordMortis]

I can't conceive of a hospital easing their mandating on cautions both employees, patients, or non-patients yet.

[Blackhawk]

Mother in law got her second dose a few minutes ago.

[Jeff V]

Ladies and gentlemen, it has been an honor posting with you.

I understand you're gonna die and only have your elected politicians to blame, but the rest of us will hold you dear in our hearts until the reaper mauls us as well.

[Isgrimnur]

[coopasonic]

...and now half of you are going to have to learn how to use google for yourselves!

[AWS260]

Now that my mom has gotten her vaccine, we're tentatively planning to visit her in Illinois sometime in March. It's been more than a year since the last time we saw her in person, and she's not getting any younger.

Now I'm struggling with whether to drive or fly.

After weighing the merits and risks of driving and flying, we decided to... take Amtrak. We'll get a couple of tiny roomettes in the sleeper car and stay in them the whole time.

I'm honestly very excited. I haven't been this eager to see my mom since I was 6.

[Defiant]

How appropriate from a company called Johnson & Johnson.

[Isgrimnur]

[Blackhawk]

Indiana just bumped their minimum age down to 50 (they've been bumping it by five or ten years every now and then.) If they bump it again, I may actually be eligible.

[Daehawk]

My doctor today said they have no idea. They are asking and trying to get the shots. But my pharmacy said they are definitely doing the shots...just not sure when.

[jztemple2]

I got my Moderna shot today. So far, four plus hours after the shot, no redness, swelling, soreness, rash, inability to pronounce "Worcestershire" correctly, nothing. I'll see overnight what happens but I get flu shots regularly and have gotten the shingles vaccine and never have any aftereffects. I'm really hoping nothing happens as my wife is scheduled for her shot tomorrow evening and she has suspicions about her reactions to a shot like this. Not that it would stop her from getting it, just that she'd be psyching herself up for trouble.

It's funny all the paperwork that gets handed to you when you are getting queued up for the shot. Mentions of "not an authorized vaccine", "not proven effective", etc. Of course I'm assuming that it all comes down to being an emergency authorized treatment without all the usual FDA endless vetting. Doesn't worry me.

I got it at a Publix about 45 minutes away from me. The staff was great, the pharmacist seemed to be about a third my age but competent enough and very pleasant and she liked my flamingo shirt which is a point for her anyway .

Now it's just the wait till tomorrow. Worcestershire, Worcestershire, Worcestershire....

[Lorini]

1st or second? 1st is easy.

[jztemple2]

1st or second? 1st is easy.

Oops, should have noted, first shot. 1st is easy? I would have thought the first shot to be the more challenging.

[malchior]

I'm getting my 2nd Pfizer tomorrow. I've been told to expect falling into a fugue state or something. We'll see.