Solar Power. Talk to me.

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Smoove_B
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Smoove_B »

Zaxxon wrote:Yeah, CP unless you live in an 8000 sq ft house, your first move should be for an infrared/blower energy audit. Most power companies will subsidize these.
Alternatively, ask for a cut of whatever the guys in your attic, detached garage or basement are growing. Good lord.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by RunningMn9 »

One more important point for those that might be considering breaking the lease - which they refer to as "Option to Prepay All Payments Remaining on the Lease". Just saying "prepay all the payments on the lease" might scare the shit out of you, considering it's a 25-year lease. In looking through the proposed Lease Contract, I saw the actual language:
lease agreement wrote:At any time during the Lease Term, you may prepay all payments remaining on the Lease, equal to: (i) all accrued but unpaid Monthly Payments, taxes, late charges, penalties, interest and all or any other sums then accrued or due and owing, plus (ii) the unpaid balance of the aggregate rent, each payment discounted to present value at 5% per annum, plus (iii) reasonable compensation, on a net after tax basis assuming a tax rate of 35%, for the loss or recapture of (A) the investment tax credit equal to thirty percent (30%) of the System cost, including installation; and (B) accelerated depreciation over five (5) years equal to eighty five percent (85%) of the System cost
(i) is easy enough, you pay them for anything you were supposed to pay but didn't. (iii) I assume that there is some catch on the federal tax credit, where they lose some or all if the solar installation is removed prior to a certain time. (iv) same thing, they are entering this agreement with the understanding that they will get that depreciated value credit, and if you back out before they do, you will pay the remaining amount on that.

While this doesn't make breaking the lease easy, it is slightly less punishing. For instance, if you break the lease after Year 5 (they have all their credits so the only thing left is (ii)), your remaining payments would be $26,486.40, but to pre-pay them would only cost $16,500 or so. It still sucks, but in the context of you having to move and recoup that cost, it's $10,000 less that you have to recoup.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Carpet_pissr »

I'm going to verify all the data tonight, but I am quite sure our rate here is .11 or .12 cents. I know because when I was looking at the costs to replace a pool pump with a new more efficient model, I realized it would have taken me 8 years to pay the difference, AND they tend to require more maintenance/work.

I have replaced about 80% of the crappy incandescent (and when I say crappy, I am referring to the fact that the bulbs the previous owner used were the most off brand pieces o' crap you can imagine, half lit, etc) bulbs in the house with LED's, and about 10% with CFL that I had. But from my understanding, lightbulbs are generally a TINY fraction of monthly energy costs.

It's all in the A/C, washer and dryer (and with three kids under 10, those two things run constantly), and I guess hot water heater maybe? I replaced the old electric cooktop in the kitchen with an induction model, so that is close to zero yearly energy costs for cooking. I do run landscape lights at night, but those are low power, and I have even started to convert those to LED as well as the old bulbs go bad.

I also had 3M "Sun Control", tinted film put on our sunroom windows and doors, and the big...not sure what you call it...bay window...that gets afternoon sun - they say it cuts down on 99% of UV rays.

I also run my pool pump less than the locally recommended time, but that probably costs $15/$20 month at most.

Dunno, an audit sounds like a great idea though. I will look into that.

Ah ha - here's my last bill: $470, not $500, and note that $34 of that is for gas (our gas and electric company is together).
2,099 KWh

Edit: I'm an idiot - my wife signed us up for the budgeted (estimated) invoices so your bill is mostly the same month to month. ACTUAL costs for May were $314, so about $280 of that was for electricity. Seems a lot more normal (and the rate is .13/KWH)

Sorry to introduce the unnecessary drama into this most excellent thread. Carry on. :D
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Kraken »

My electric bill fell from $75 to $60/mo when my wife stopped working at home. Since she runs her AC continuously from May to October, I'm going to save a lot more over the summer.

I don't think I'm a prime candidate for solar power.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by RunningMn9 »

$280 for any month not named July or August is pure insanity. At least around these parts. Do you live in a desert?

It sounds like you already replaced most of the lighting, but lights can be a *huge* component of your bill.

I had a fixture with 10 40W bulbs in it that people left on for about 6 hours a day, every goddam day. Switching those to 7W CFLs, saved almost 800 KWH per year.
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And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
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Make up bags of change
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Zaxxon »

I had a similar situation with 8x65W floods in the basement. Now they're 9.5W LEDs.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by RunningMn9 »

Carpet_pissr wrote:But from my understanding, lightbulbs are generally a TINY fraction of monthly energy costs.
Just wanted to add back in some info here. I don't know about the component that lighting would play in terms of a monthly bill. But I did an inventory of every light fixture in my house:

29 normal 60W bulb fixtures
15 40W candelabra bulb fixtures
13 60W vanity bulb fixtures

Not all of those can be replaced (or should be replaced based on usage), but for the sake of illustration, I took a look at what it would take to replace all of the bulbs that I could with lower energy equivalents. For totally enclosed fixtures, I opted for CFLs (except in two bathroom fixtures where I've found the CFLs burn out way too quickly, so we stick with 60W incandescents), and LEDs for everything else.

For the sake of the math, I took everyone's word with respect to expected lifetime of the various bulbs (1000 hours for incandescent, 8000 for CFL, and 24900 for LEDs).

If I bought replacements for the 55 bulbs above (leaving two 60W bulbs alone), that would set me back about $400. Over their expected lifetimes, I would spend about $1075 on incandescent bulbs. However, over their lifetimes, the low energy bulbs would consume about $1400 in energy at today's rates (for me).

Over that same period of time, the incandescents would consume almost $10,000 worth of electricity (at today's rates).

To conclude, lighting matters. It's not really a tiny component of your bill.
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Yeah, I took the two seconds to look it up...for average houses, lighting is about 20%. Much higher than I had seen quoted previously. Now I feel a lot better having replaced all those bulbs.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Kraken »

RunningMn9 wrote:For totally enclosed fixtures, I opted for CFLs (except in two bathroom fixtures where I've found the CFLs burn out way too quickly, so we stick with 60W incandescents), and LEDs for everything else.
Are we not supposed to use LEDs in enclosed fixtures? I just bought my first LED bulb specifically for a bathroom fixture that eats CFLs way too quickly. I figured it's worth $10 if I don't have to replace it for years.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Isgrimnur »

Heat kills LEDs.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Kraken »

Damn. Better take that puppy back out and sacrifice another CFL then.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Zaxxon »

There are LEDs certified for enclosed fixtures--just make sure you use one that says so on the packaging.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Anecdotally, my LED lightbulbs are MUCH cooler than my CFL's. In some cases, there is no heat at all, in other cases they are warm at best (both cases, while on). I have been burned by touching a CFL bulb that was recently turned off.

So I think it depends a lot on the wattage of the bulb being enclosed, as well as how enclosed it is. I would have no problem putting say a 40W equivalente LED in an enclosed fixture unless it was just really tight (almost touching).
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Kraken »

My bulb's package was silent on that point, but proud of being dimmable, so I moved it to the dining room fixture where it replaced the last incandescent bulb that was still in service. That's the least efficient fixture in the house and the one that my wife reflexively turns on at all times, so it should make a small difference in the electric bill.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by stessier »

Carpet_pissr wrote:Anecdotally, my LED lightbulbs are MUCH cooler than my CFL's. In some cases, there is no heat at all, in other cases they are warm at best (both cases, while on). I have been burned by touching a CFL bulb that was recently turned off.

So I think it depends a lot on the wattage of the bulb being enclosed, as well as how enclosed it is. I would have no problem putting say a 40W equivalente LED in an enclosed fixture unless it was just really tight (almost touching).
LEDs use heat sinks to make the surface of the bulb cool but they generate a (relative) ton of heat. The ones I've found for enclosed fixtures usually are liquid filled to handle the heat transfer...but it's been a year since I looked, so there might be new tech.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Geezerone »

Yes the Switch Lighting Infinia model of LED bulbs are just about he same size as a regular bulb and can be enclosed (I have dual 40w bulbs in a glass bowl type fixture). They are liquid filled, so are a bit heavier than a standard incandescent.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by RunningMn9 »

Geezerone wrote:Yes the Switch Lighting Infinia model of LED bulbs are just about he same size as a regular bulb and can be enclosed (I have dual 40w bulbs in a glass bowl type fixture). They are liquid filled, so are a bit heavier than a standard incandescent.
Those are some pricey light bulbs. :)
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Thanks for the advice guys...I am setting up a power company subsidized energy audit - would never have thought of that probably, without seeing it mentioned here.

I get a sizable rebate, but no idea how much the total audit costs.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Zaxxon »

Excellent. Let us know how it goes. Despite recommending it, I have not had one done. We made some changes that we know were useful like swapping out lights and blowing insulation into the attic, but haven't actually had the test done.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by coopasonic »

I move to a 67% bigger house (built in 2009) within 15 miles of my old house (built in 1998) and my average electric bill went down. I'd like to see an energy audit of the old house because there was something wrong there.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Carpet_pissr »

coopasonic wrote:I move to a 67% bigger house (built in 2009) within 15 miles of my old house (built in 1998) and my average electric bill went down. I'd like to see an energy audit of the old house because there was something wrong there.
Interesting. We moved within a mile of our old house, with an almost exactly 100% increase (in heated/cooled space). Almost exactly double our energy bill as well.

Layout has a lot to do with it, as I know several people that have large, ranch style houses whose energy bills are CRAZY low. I am heating and cooling an upstairs all day and night, and that takes a metric crap ton of KWh.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Bakhtosh »

You will almost always come out ahead by investing in energy efficient upgrades before pie-in-the-sky stuff like solar panels.

I would recommend solar only if you're using them as a hot water pre-heater and an emergency generator with batteries. Install the transfer switch and regularly make the transfer and run your house off the batteries for a while (your house meter stops running). There's no way to make the panels pay for themselves without HUGE tax incentives, and if you have those, go with the option that gives you the most up-front savings. You cannot count on those still being in place in 10 years.

Instead, invest in ductwork inspection & sealing, home envelope sealing, additional insulation (blown cellulose if possible) and radiant barrier, LED/CFL lights, geothermal heat pump, ceramic tank or heat pump hot water heater, new appliances, new windows, programmable thermostat, proper (but not excessive) bathroom venting, etc.

These things have an added advantage - they reduce your power bill by reducing your consumption. When your home consumes less electricity, if you want to throw some money at solar panels (grid connected or not), you'll have to buy fewer panels.

Actually, there's another way to make net metered solar a good investment - if your power company has severe tiered rate increases during peak hours. If your house is basically unoccupied during peak hours or your solar installation is way oversized, you're putting watts onto the grid during the most expensive portion of the day and only having to buy back power during off-peak times.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by RunningMn9 »

Uh, basic math says you are full of poop.
And in banks across the world
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Make up bags of change
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Zaxxon »

RunningMn9 wrote:Uh, basic math says you are full of poop.
Yup. certainly different homes have different effective fixes. But such a blanket statement about solar being a likely bad bet is not backed up by the facts in 2014.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by RunningMn9 »

I will pay about $33,000 for solar panels. Even if my electric utility was able to freeze their current rates, the electricity saved will be over $70,000.
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Zaxxon »

Just got my net meter installed--moved into the digital age! As soon as the solar dudes can get back out here, my roof will be electrified.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by RunningMn9 »

Huzzah!
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Zaxxon »

Aaannddd.... We're producing!
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by RunningMn9 »

Huzzah^2!
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Carpet_pissr »

FYI Solar City today bought a solar panel manufacturing company (Silevo), so now they will be more than just the distributor + installer. They will own the products they install. Solar City stock up almost 20% on the news.

Musk is obviously in this for the long game, like pretty much everything else he has done in the last decade.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Zaxxon »

If they pull off the efficiency and scale they talked about today, SolarCity is in great shape.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Zaxxon »

malchior
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by malchior »

I have a strong belief that Solar City is going to pull off the big plant in NY. The tech to produce the panels is getting cheaper all the time - vertical integration is only going to help them make a big push. I didn't know it but micro inverters nose-dived in price too. It is a very interesting environment for solar now.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Zaxxon »

Another view of my data. Not as detailed as the PVOutput one, but the hourly grid is a cool visualization tool.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by RunningMn9 »

We are just about done with the engineering design phase. They came yesterday to do the shade analysis. They should be starting the permit process early next week.

One thing that I still can't figure out if I am processing correctly is trying to compare the lease payments with what it would cost to buy the system outright. Forget for the moment what they were going to try to bill me. The lease is a 25-year agreement where I pay them $110.36 per month. That will have me paying $33,108 over the 25 year period of agreement.

Which is certainly more than it would cost to buy the system outright (considering tax credits, leaving SRECs to the side for a second). My maths however tell me that the value "$33,108" is meaningless to compare against what it would cost to buy the system outright. A $110.32 payment in 2039 is not equal to a $110.32 payment in 2014. I think that we've been through this before, the notion of discounting an annuity to present value.

The lease agreement sets the annualized discount rate to 5%. I have no idea whether that is accurate or not (except that they are using that to figure out how much I should be paying them to break the lease, so I'm assuming the actual discount rate should be higher ;) ), but it's all I had to use. I believe that the formula to calculate present value of an annuity is:

Code: Select all

                   |         1     |
                   | 1 - --------- |
                   |     (1 + r)^n |
PV (A, r, n) = A * | ------------- |
                   |       r       |
For this example, "A" is the monthly payment ($110.36), "r" is the discount rate (5% / 12 = 0.417%), and "n" is the number of payments in the annuity (300).

My maths tell me that the present value of this lease is $18,870 - which would amount to $2.05 per W for the 9.2KW system. I understand that the overall decision is more complicated (in my case I am paying $2.05 per W for the system, but I don't actually own the system - although I don't know that a 25-year old solar system has a whole lot of resale value anyway). And of course, I have ignored SRECs - although I'm also ignoring any insurance and maintenance costs which would work against those SRECs).

Am I missing something else?
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Zaxxon »

Calculating NPV sounds like work, so I'm not going to check your numbers. Your conclusion sounds reasonable to me, though.

Have they given you a price to buy the system outright? Have you gotten a solid grasp on what those SRECs would amount to?
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by RunningMn9 »

Zaxxon wrote:Have they given you a price to buy the system outright?
After incentives and financing costs, it would have been somewhere in the low 20's.
Zaxxon wrote:Have you gotten a solid grasp on what those SRECs would amount to?
I don't think that it's possible to have a solid grasp on that in NJ. The market as it exists now is completely rigged by Christie. I don't imagine that it will survive much after he is out in a couple of years.
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by Zaxxon »

RunningMn9 wrote:
Zaxxon wrote:Have they given you a price to buy the system outright?
After incentives and financing costs, it would have been somewhere in the low 20's.
For me that would be tempting if the NPV is only off by a few $K, some of which would be made up by SRECs. It's possible my worry that an open lease on the home would cause issues / depress the value when selling is an irrational one in your market, though.
Zaxxon wrote:Have you gotten a solid grasp on what those SRECs would amount to?
I don't think that it's possible to have a solid grasp on that in NJ. The market as it exists now is completely rigged by Christie. I don't imagine that it will survive much after he is out in a couple of years.
Sucks. Here in CO, the SRECs are much smaller than current NJ SRECs, but at least they're consistent and guaranteed by 10-year contract.
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Re: Solar Power. Talk to me.

Post by RunningMn9 »

Zaxxon wrote:For me that would be tempting if the NPV is only off by a few $K, some of which would be made up by SRECs. It's possible my worry that an open lease on the home would cause issues / depress the value when selling is an irrational one in your market, though.
The only way I'm leaving this house is if I'm being carried out in a coffin. :)

I don't understand why it would depress the value of the house when selling though. Having a 9.2 KW solar system on the roof that provides at least 75% of the electrical power to the house, at a rate that is significantly below what the utility is charging, that seems like a win for the buyer. Plus, if they want, they can in effect buy the solar system during the sale. If that's the route they want to go, then the value of the house is increased by whatever value would normally be added by having a 9.2 KW system on the roof, and I pay off the lease as part of the sale (well, technically I prepay all of the remaining payments - the lease company will still be responsible for maintaining and repairing the system for the remainder of the lease).
Zaxxon wrote:Sucks. Here in CO, the SRECs are much smaller than current NJ SRECs, but at least they're consistent and guaranteed by 10-year contract.
Yeah, it makes if very hard to factor them in. The prices were tanking not long ago, so Christie propped them up. I feel like as soon as they get "enough" solar installation here to cross some tipping point - they will remove the supports and the SREC market will turn to dust. With my luck, I would be the tipping point. :)
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
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