tesla motors

[coopasonic]

Just another reason it's good to be shor... errr... of modest height.

[Paingod]

I haven't tried a Tesla yet, but will honestly attest that at 6'1" a number of car center-consoles will dig into my right shin. My wife's Aveo did it. Her Mini Cooper does it. A few others I've driven have too. My Nissan Juke does not. Comfort is a big selling point. If I end up with a permanent dent in my leg, the car isn't worth it. I've always had good luck with Nissans adapting well to my height.

[RunningMn9]

How tall are you, Sasquatch?

6’5” / 6’6”

[Isgrimnur]

That will do it.

[Zaxxon]

For all the headlines' focus on Tesla consistently setting high goals and failing to meet them, the reality is still pretty incredible.

Q2 EV sales numbers:
-Chevy Bolt: 3,483 in the US.
-Nissan Leaf: 4,114 in the US.
-Tesla Model 3: 18,440 in the US/Canada (Tesla doesn't break it out). Call it 15k in the US to be conservative.

And this while severely production constrained (while they ended Q2 at 5k/week, the quarter-long average was 2,200/week) and while producing only vehicles totaling $50k and up.

As for non-EV competition for the 3, entering June, the 3 was already outselling the BMW 3-series, Mercedes C-class, Lexus IS, and Audi A4 in the US.

It's going to be interesting to see how things shake out once Tesla is at their 10k/week production target and selling the thing worldwide.

[stessier]

That's the benefit of being a one trick pony (only selling electric).

I know it's anecdotal, but if my buying experience was any indication, it's a wonder Chevy ever sells a Bolt. The dealership I used was no longer allowing test drives because their vehicles were getting to have too many miles for them to sell "New". My salesman mentioned several times how the current cost of gas did not justify the purchase (which is technically true but not something you should say to someone trying to buy the car) and that I should really be looking at the Volt. He also seemed disinterested in making me feel good about the purchase - no playing up the tech or how cool the car will be. A lot of talk about the other cars on the lot though.

Then I get to work and everyone asks why I'm not getting a Tesla and say they've never even heard of a Bolt.

[Zaxxon]

My anecdotal experience largely mirrors yours. When I bought my Leaf, I started at my local Nissan dealer. They had exactly one, and I knew far more about it than the salespeeps. They didn't anti-sell it, but had I not come in knowing that it was what I wanted, I judge the chance that they would have led me to it at approximately zero percent.

I then moved over to a big Leaf dealer (in Boulder, whose Leaf guy used to work for Tesla and is the top Leaf salesman in the multi-state area that includes Colorado). It was much better there, but they are definitely the exception in the Nissan world.

Before I locked in my Model 3 order, I also went to test-drive the Bolt. They were happy to let me, but again I knew far more about the vehicle than they did, and there was no particular desire to sell me a Bolt specifically.

I know that the various dealer associations frequently assert that they'd love to sell EVs, but what my eyes show me is that Tesla's likely correct in their claim that their only true option is to sell the cars themselves.

[Jeff V]

When I was kicking tires two years ago, a Chevy dealer came on strong after I made a price query. I told her that I was just looking around, trying to determine if the car would meet my needs. Her immediate response was, "Oh, it does!" Without bothering to hear what my needs are. I ignored every subsequent email from her and that dealership is on my perma-boycott list.

Now, I'm glad Zaxxon was the one who posted those statistics, not me, because it really does explain why the EV world looks the way it does through my eyes. The peers that the Teslas are compared to are entirely all luxury cars -- and luxury cars make up a whopping 6% of the market. That manufactures who typically sell in the mainstream space are struggling to sell cars is keeping the technology expensive and the infrastructure underdeveloped. The reason why the office building I work in (800 inmates or so) has no electrical chargers can be explained by walking though the parking lot and seeing an abundance of Fords, Chevy, Toyota, Nissan and Honda. Luxury cars, maybe a handful. The company simply does not pay that well.

What Stessier was told about price is also a key factor. Until the technology gets cheaper or gas becomes substantially more expensive, the mainstream isn't going all-in. When Tesla decided they would no longer fund universal chargers, it seemed to me they were throwing in the towel at ever becoming a mass-market force. Leaving it up to the companies who can't sell their EV cars in the first place is no way to fund the revolution.

[Zaxxon]

Now, I'm glad Zaxxon was the one who posted those statistics, not me, because it really does explain why the EV world looks the way it does through my eyes. The peers that the Teslas are compared to are entirely all luxury cars -- and luxury cars make up a whopping 6% of the market.

This is true now, but will not always be so. Remember Tesla's plan--crazy-expensive 2-seater in 2008. Use that cash to build a less crazy but still expensive sedan in 2012 at 10x the volume (20,000/year) and 1/2 to 3/4 the price. Used that to make the X in 2015, about the same price, but 5x the combined volume of the 2013 S alone (100k/year). Used that cash to make the 3 in 2017, about 1/2 the price of the S/X and 5x the combined S/X volume (500k/year, eventually--hopefully close-ish to that in 2019). This stuff doesn't just come down in price by itself--it requires volume sales, and no one else is even seriously trying.

The reason the comparison to the other luxury marques matters is that it's one thing for Tesla to sell a few Xs/Ss at $100k. It's entirely another for the 3 to jump onto the scene and eat away at BMW/Mercedes/Audi's moneymakers. That it's already leading the segment in the US even while at 1/4 targeted production levels and a starting price $15k above the eventual base is astonishing. You can bet your last dollar that those manufacturers are taking Tesla seriously today.

Once we have BEV sales in the millions/year total, you will begin to see non-luxury vehicles that don't suck. The Bolt is already a competent BEV that can be had for not much above $30k, aka right at the median vehicle sales price. The 2018 Leaf is on the cusp, and the 2019 model with 200+ miles range will fit the bill for many. That's what we have today, with total BEV sales worldwide a small fraction of a million. Wait till 2020 or 2021, and there may just be one that meets the Jeff V Standard of Catheterized Mobility™.

That manufactures who typically sell in the mainstream space are struggling to sell cars is keeping the technology expensive and the infrastructure underdeveloped.

And as we've been discussing, if those manufacturers attempted to actually develop compelling tech, then market and sell it, they'd be doing better.

When Tesla decided they would no longer fund universal chargers, it seemed to me they were throwing in the towel at ever becoming a mass-market force. Leaving it up to the companies who can't sell their EV cars in the first place is no way to fund the revolution.

Hilarious. They ended the part of their program that gave away chargers that their own vehicles don't need in an effort to throw a bone to the supposed competition. It's remarkable that they ever did that, not notable that they stopped.

Tesla has their own network under control, and it's 10x better than any other EV charging network out there. They've said they're willing to license other manufacturers to used it if those manufacturers would only commit to contributing to build-out/ops costs on par with their vehicles' usage of the network. They solved the problem, they've made the solution available, but no one else is willing to take them up on it. That's not 'leaving it up to the companies who can't sell their EVs'. It's the opposite. But you can lead a horse to water, etc etc.

[stessier]

This stuff doesn't just come down in price by itself--it requires volume sales, and no one else is even seriously trying.

Yeah, I read an article where Chevy is upping their production 20% starting in the 4th quarter. This suggests a yearly total of 30k vehicles and will not meet demand (there is a year long wait list in Canada). The dealerships are all on allocation with most of the vehicles allotted for CARB states. It will really be interesting to see what they do if those regulations are ruled illegal.

[Zaxxon]

This stuff doesn't just come down in price by itself--it requires volume sales, and no one else is even seriously trying.

Yeah, I read an article where Chevy is upping their production 20% starting in the 4th quarter. This suggests a yearly total of 30k vehicles and will not meet demand (there is a year long wait list in Canada). The dealerships are all on allocation with most of the vehicles allotted for CARB states. It will really be interesting to see what they do if those regulations are ruled illegal.

I'd argue that this does show you what they'd do. The car is in demand, especially out of the US (in Canada and Europe where it was the Opel Ampera-E before GM divested Opel). Why are they raising production to a level that will clearly still not meet demand? They seem to me to be keeping it largely a CARB compliance car or they just can't get sufficient battery supply to do better. Either scenario is not a great look.

I'm hopeful for option 3--GM is treading water with this Bolt and plan to shoot production up with the next gen and their next BEV in the next year or two. Not holding out too much hope on that front, tho.

[stessier]

This stuff doesn't just come down in price by itself--it requires volume sales, and no one else is even seriously trying.

Yeah, I read an article where Chevy is upping their production 20% starting in the 4th quarter. This suggests a yearly total of 30k vehicles and will not meet demand (there is a year long wait list in Canada). The dealerships are all on allocation with most of the vehicles allotted for CARB states. It will really be interesting to see what they do if those regulations are ruled illegal.

I'd argue that this does show you what they'd do. The car is in demand, especially out of the US (in Canada and Europe where it was the Opel Ampera-E before GM divested Opel). Why are they raising production to a level that will clearly still not meet demand? They seem to me to be keeping it largely a CARB compliance car or they just can't get sufficient battery supply to do better. Either scenario is not a great look.

They claim that up to this point, it is battery supply.

I'm hopeful for option 3--GM is treading water with this Bolt and plan to shoot production up with the next gen and their next BEV in the next year or two. Not holding out too much hope on that front, tho.

They claim the next full Bolt redesign is 2025 (8 years after introduction). They've announced other all electrics in the next few years, though, so maybe all their energy is pouring into those.

From the Bolt message board I frequent, owners with complaints get pretty prompt service when their local techs can't handle things. It is not rare, however, that only one tech at a dealership knows how to work on the car or that there is a shortage of replacement parts (windshields in particular for some reason). But then Tesla also has the occasional horror story of long waits for maintenance, so it might just be an industry thing.

[Zaxxon]

They claim that up to this point, it is battery supply.

Not too surprising. There's a reason Tesla has that gigantic tract of land in Nevada.

From the Bolt message board I frequent, owners with complaints get pretty prompt service when their local techs can't handle things. It is not rare, however, that only one tech at a dealership knows how to work on the car or that there is a shortage of replacement parts (windshields in particular for some reason). But then Tesla also has the occasional horror story of long waits for maintenance, so it might just be an industry thing.

My wife's car is a PHEV and the local dealership is similar--they have one tech who's the expert on all the PHEVs, and if he's out they generally won't schedule anything other than a basic oil change, etc.

Tesla definitely has their share of parts delay horror stories.

[Jeff V]

Step away from the pon-pons, Zax. Pointing out that the bit players are taking Tesla seriously is truly stating there is a new might-mite in town. Mites...cower in awe...the rest of you non-mites, carry on.

Now, the main stream manufactures do sell a lot of cars, approximately all of the other 94% of the market. So they know how build cars that their customer base wants. But what they can't do is build an EV cheap enough to compete with an IC engine even considering the cost of the fuel. The buyers of the car can see this...they can see an EV version of a mid-range car; compare the feature set; and conclude they are better off with the conventional engine. Chevy/Ford/Chrysler could very well design a Tesla-like car and compete in that rarefied 6% market space, but I doubt it is profitable to do so. It is disingenuous to point to a Chevy for being a Chevy and mock it for not being a Tesla.

According to your dates, Tesla's been at this for 10 years (and they weren't the first to come out with the EV concept). This is becoming a rather long time for the technology to stay expensive and cut out the mainstream.

[Zaxxon]

Step away from the pon-pons, Zax. Pointing out that the bit players are taking Tesla seriously is truly stating there is a new might-mite in town. Mites...cower in awe...the rest of you non-mites, carry on.

OK. I can see you're not serious. BMW's 2017 profits were $12B on 2.1 million vehicles sold. Toyota's were $22B on nearly 8 million vehicles. The luxury brands are an outsized share of the profits for the industry. If Tesla is disrupting them (and they clearly are--Tesla's 3 vehicles lead their respective market segments in many locales), that's a big deal. Further, their YoY growth exceeds their competitors by more than an order of magnitude. Your continued need to look only at the present and past rather than the trend line makes you myopic and prevents you from seeing the forest for the trees.

Now, the main stream manufactures do sell a lot of cars, approximately all of the other 94% of the market. So they know how build cars that their customer base wants. But what they can't do is build an EV cheap enough to compete with an IC engine even considering the cost of the fuel.

Correct; they cannot do that. Nor will they be able to (on par with Tesla and anyone else who builds BEVs in volume) when they no longer have a choice in the matter.

The buyers of the car can see this...they can see an EV version of a mid-range car; compare the feature set; and conclude they are better off with the conventional engine.

No, and this is a big piece of the problem. Car buyers can't see this. Car buyers have no idea that they'd prefer a competent BEV, even though a large majority of car buyers would prefer a competent BEV. Most buyers have never experienced an EV, much less had the pros/cons laid out for them. Stick your average person in a Tesla, or a Bolt, and they come out liking it.

Chevy/Ford/Chrysler could very well design a Tesla-like car and compete in that rarefied 6% market space, but I doubt it is profitable to do so. It is disingenuous to point to a Chevy for being a Chevy and mock it for not being a Tesla.

No, they most certainly could not. Not today, at least. No one is close to Tesla on battery pack cost/kWh, nor on energy density, nor on ability to scale their own production. Most other manufacturers don't even have competence internally on the cell/pack design. None of them are close on software integration, either. This is one of the big red herrings that always comes up--'just wait until the big manufacturers decide to squash Tesla. They could replicate Tesla's vehicles in no time flat!'

No. The Jaguar i-Pace is the first vehicle that's really trying, and it's a Model X price with a Model Y size. It's far less efficient, using 90 kWh to get the same EPA range as an X with a 75 kWh battery (and the i-Pace is a smaller car, too), and charges at 50 kW max vs the X's 120 kW. It's a nice car, but it's not competitive with the X, and the Y will likely demolish it once that vehicle hits. Time will tell, but it's definitely not as simple as you make it out to be.

Further, the current drawbacks to BEVs (range anxiety, powertrain cost) are temporary, while their advantages (efficiency, instant torque, reduced emissions) are permanent. You may think I'm nuts to believe that the ICE age is coming to an end, but I firmly believe that this is the case. If it's not profitable to compete with Tesla today, when will it become profitable to do so? When ICE volume and margins are dropping? When Tesla's lead in pack cost is even larger than it is today? Which of their stable of combustion engine engineers will have a career change to develop organizational competency in development of EV motors/cells/packs/software to rival that of Tesla?

According to your dates, Tesla's been at this for 10 years (and they weren't the first to come out with the EV concept). This is becoming a rather long time for the technology to stay expensive and cut out the mainstream.

10 years is an incredibly short span of time to go from selling < 100 vehicles/month, built on another manufacturer's vehicle platform, to what this year will be > 250,000 vehicles designed from the sheet metal on up by Tesla and produced in their own factory. An incredibly short time. And the energy generation/storage side is just starting to become meaningful, as well.

[DD*]

Opinion column (so take it as such) detailing some of the issues with Musk and his various projects. Join the crowd in shorting that Tesla stock...

[LawBeefaroni]

Gaming the queue:

But that’s not the only way Tesla appears to be focusing on profit with its current Model 3 rollout.

Over the past week, we have received reports from half a dozen Model 3 reservation holders who recently converted their reservations into orders for the Long Range rear-wheel-drive Model 3, the only Model 3 in volume production for now.

As usual, they were given months-long delivery windows after confirming their orders, but that changed after they confirmed their payment method to be cash without any trade-in.

They all reported their delivery window being reduced to weeks – even just one week in a few cases.

The loophole for a quicker delivery still doesn’t seem to apply to the dual motor and performance versions of the Model 3, which Tesla has yet to bring to volume production.

[RunningMn9]

So I had a chance to drive the Model 3 today, and it turns out that the display is in no way interfered with by my stupid knees! So that puts the Model 3 on the table some day, which removes my sad feels!

[Zaxxon]

So I had a chance to drive the Model 3 today, and it turns out that the display is in no way interfered with by my stupid knees! So that puts the Model 3 on the table some day, which removes my sad feels!

Awesome. To me the driver's seat space is cavernous, but I'm nowhere near your height. Glad it's better than you initially thought!

I'm taking my car on a 1200-mile trip to West Texas next week, followed by a 1600-mile trek to South and North Dakota the following week. Should be interesting to see how charging works out. Neither of those areas is a charging Mecca.

[Zaxxon]

Breakfast in Trinidad, CO.

[Zaxxon]

Stats on this leg of the trip:

Miles driven - 543.5
Rated miles used - 577.6
Avg drive speed - 74 mph
Drive time - 7:29
Supercharge time - 1:00
Avg speed incl charging - 64 mph

During the two charge stops, I had breakfast and lunch plus a couple of bio breaks. Had I been in a gasoline car, I'd have saved approximately ten minutes (at the first stop, where I just had a smoothie and then waited 10 min for the car to tell me I had sufficient charge to hit the next Supercharger).

At the second stop, I plugged in, walked over to Fuddruckers about 5 minutes away, ordered my burger, and the car pinged me as I sat down to eat to tell me that I had enough charge to make my destination. I finished eating and let the car keep going as Lubbock has a total of one convenient L2 charger. When I pulled into my hotel, I had 120 miles left in the tank, so to speak.

Efficiency was 94% of rated. I think that's largely due to much of the trip being on open NM and TX highways at 80-85 mph. Had I been more conservative I'm sure I could have gotten 100%. Once I realized running out of juice was not going to be a concern, I drove like the natives.

[$iljanus]

Did you make futuristic car sounds as you drove? What a fun road trip!

[Isgrimnur]

I’m so sorry that you had to go to Lubbock

[Zaxxon]

Did you make futuristic car sounds as you drove? What a fun road trip!

I didn't. However, there was a souped-up Mustang with a ridiculous aftermarket spoiler that pulled up next to me at a stoplight in Amarillo, revving like a madman to make sure I knew he wanted to rumble.

His car sounded like it was having a stroke when the green light hit. He did finally catch me after I hit 75 mph. And I've got the slow Tesla.

Isg: thanks. The two consolations are it's a fun excuse to take my car on a trip, and Orlando's still exists in Lubbock. Mmm; Mafia queso.

[Isgrimnur]

Grab a calzone from One Guy’s on the way back.

[Zaxxon]

That is not far from me at all. Might have to do that.

[stessier]

The Bolt comes with a J-connector. If I got the two items below, I should be all set to charge at 32 amps, right?

https://shop.tesla.com/us/en/product/ve ... undle.html

https://shop.tesla.com/us/en/product/ve ... apter.html

This has the benefit of being cheaper than other options and mobile.

[Zaxxon]

No. That adapter will allow a J1772 plug to plug into a Tesla car. Not a Tesla plug to plug into a J1772 car. There is no Tesla-approved way to use a Tesla EVSE on a non-Tesla vehicle. There is a third-party adapter but I believe it's a couple hundred bucks.

[coopasonic]

Did you make futuristic car sounds as you drove? What a fun road trip!

I didn't. However, there was a souped-up Mustang with a ridiculous aftermarket spoiler that pulled up next to me at a stoplight in Amarillo, revving like a madman to make sure I knew he wanted to rumble.

His car sounded like it was having a stroke when the green light hit. He did finally catch me after I hit 75 mph. And I've got the slow Tesla.

I am guessing this is due to Tesla reporting performance numbers conservatively (or pulling up next to a pretty crappy mustang). According to the published numbers my G37 should be faster than a RWD LR M3. Maybe I will drive up to Denver next month so we can drag race.

[Zaxxon]

It's really more about the 0-30 as that's where the Tesla shines. But it's very possible that the Mustang guy sucked. It was not, shall we say, a new or professional-looking deal.

[stessier]

No. That adapter will allow a J1772 plug to plug into a Tesla car. Not a Tesla plug to plug into a J1772 car. There is no Tesla-approved way to use a Tesla EVSE on a non-Tesla vehicle. There is a third-party adapter but I believe it's a couple hundred bucks.

Ah, thanks. Yeah, the one I need is about $300 for the adapter. Nice to have, though, for destination chargers. I'll have to consider.

[Zaxxon]

Yeah, at that point you're getting to the same cost as something like a JuiceBox, which is awesome.

What's the max charge rate on L2 of the Bolt?

JuiceBox Pro 40 with JuiceNet: WiFi-equipped 40 Amp UL Listed Electric Vehicle Charging Station (EVSE) with 24-foot cable and NEMA 14-50 plug Amazon link.

[coopasonic]

Model 3 Long Range Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive
Red Multi-Coat Paint Midnight Silver Metallic Paint
18’’ Aero Wheels
Premium Interior
Premium Black
Enhanced Autopilot

Changed paint color to save big bucks!

Made a couple more changes as I was having some price anxiety. Dropping the price from $60k to $51k is making me feel a bit better, but pushed my timeline back a month.

[Zaxxon]

I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up speeding you up, as RWD is what they're popping out in numbers now.

[coopasonic]

I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up speeding you up, as RWD is what they're popping out in numbers now.

Edit button disappeared this morning and the financing options are now open by default when I go to the page. I don't want to get excited ahead of time, but I think I'll be more likely to actually answer my phone if it rings in the near future.

[Zaxxon]

Especially if the call is from Vegas.

[naednek]

Zaxx, if it makes you feel any better, I basically blame you for ruining my finances for the next several years.

Thanks!

It does, actually.

So, like, if I average my success rate with Jeff and with you, and toss in small partial credit for leaning on stessier for his Bolt, it tips me to a passing grade? For some defintion of passing.

Yes but I take credit for the OO Electric car movement as a whole... http://www.octopusoverlords.com/forum/v ... issan+leaf

5 years in the making

[stessier]

Zaxx, if it makes you feel any better, I basically blame you for ruining my finances for the next several years.

Thanks!

It does, actually.

So, like, if I average my success rate with Jeff and with you, and toss in small partial credit for leaning on stessier for his Bolt, it tips me to a passing grade? For some defintion of passing.

Yes but I take credit for the OO Electric car movement as a whole... http://www.octopusoverlords.com/forum/v ... issan+leaf

5 years in the making

Pfft, leasing. Lack of commitment is what I see.

[naednek]

Zaxx, if it makes you feel any better, I basically blame you for ruining my finances for the next several years.

Thanks!

It does, actually.

So, like, if I average my success rate with Jeff and with you, and toss in small partial credit for leaning on stessier for his Bolt, it tips me to a passing grade? For some defintion of passing.

Yes but I take credit for the OO Electric car movement as a whole... http://www.octopusoverlords.com/forum/v ... issan+leaf

5 years in the making

Pfft, leasing. Lack of commitment is what I see.

Their batteries degraded fairly quickly No way I was going to buy early on. I now drive a vanpool and the State pays me to drive it, and I get about 450 miles free to use on top of the commuting miles.

[stessier]

Tesla hit the 200k US sales mark.

The article says that the Federal incentive phases out in two steps - halved in the first half of 2019 and halved again in the second half. I thought it was done by quarters. Guess I was wrong.