Fundraising for 2020/2021: Currently at $1580. Fundraising has begun, see the global post for options. Paypal Donation Links US dollars CDN Dollars

Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Everything else!

Moderators: EvilHomer3k, Bakhtosh

Post Reply
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 63073
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

I'm tempted to pull and ND and just start selling. FOMO, though I guess. I like the stuff I have (that I wasn't burned on years ago) and I don't get the market. Also, whatever this eurphoria is, apparently it doesnt apply to NFLX

Premarket Last Trade $483.62 Change Since Close -43.77 (-8.30%)

User avatar
LawBeefaroni
Forum Moderator
Posts: 48973
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:08 pm
Location: Urbs in Horto, where we only use the old smilies
LawBeefaroni OO’s avatar
Loading…

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

LordMortis wrote:
Fri Jul 17, 2020 8:05 am
I'm tempted to pull and ND and just start selling. FOMO, though I guess. I like the stuff I have (that I wasn't burned on years ago) and I don't get the market. Also, whatever this eurphoria is, apparently it doesnt apply to NFLX

Premarket Last Trade $483.62 Change Since Close -43.77 (-8.30%)
Guidance. They beat on revs and new subs (10M vs 7.5M) but guided just 2.5M new subs next q. They'll beat that, IMO.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

MYT

User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 63073
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

For those of you watching TSLA "competition" (No link) "up" to $39.02 when last I looked. (meanwhile TSLA up $120 on the day) I still, or course, believe RIVIAN will Tesla's ultimate competition but they are private, so there is investor tracking here.

By Chris Wack

Nikola Corp. were down 21% to $38.81 after the company on Friday filed to sell warrants.

The electric-truck maker said it will sell warrants to buy 23 million shares at $11.50 each. The stock closed Friday's session at $48.84 a share.

Nikola also said in its filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission that selling stockholders could offer up to 53.4 million shares from time to time.

Volume for the stock was 28 million shares at 1:15 p.m. ET, compared with its 65-day average volume of 13.5 million shares.

Write to Chris Wack at chris.wack@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 20, 2020 13:22 ET (17:22 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Not much for me to do right now investing wise, in general, I have too much money tied up and I don't trust the markets place right now. I'll find something if F dips below $6 again so I can then put up more covered calls that never seem to last. I'd also like to continue my education in covered calls with more NOK and GE but I'm not putting the money I just got back, not so optimally, out there for so much more than I paid the first time, including the call gains. That way would seem to be the direction of ruins to me.

User avatar
xwraith
Posts: 931
Joined: Mon Mar 21, 2005 6:42 pm

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by xwraith »

So in the run up to earnings I sold some covered calls on AMD at (what I thought) were going to be nicely out of the money. Now not so much, Not that I really mind, but I really question if the stock is going to hold this level after earnings. Makes me really tempted to buy some puts here in the next few days if it keeps going up and up -- I won't though as I think I would be too concentrated in one stock.

On the other hand I was able to close out my short puts.
I forgot to call it "a box of pure malevolent evil, a purveyor of
insidious insanity, an eldritch manifestation that would make Bill
Gates let out a low whistle of admiration," but it's all those, too.
-- David Gerard, Re: [Mediawiki-l] Wikitext grammar, 2010.08.06

User avatar
Zaxxon
Forum Moderator
Posts: 23082
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:11 am
Location: Surrounded by Mountains

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

Similar for me, only replace AMD with Tesla. Wednesday will be interesting for me this time around.

User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 63073
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

Speaking of all the earning announcements if MSFT and AAPL stay in the stratosphere this morning I think I will sell most of the few shares I bought in April this morning. AAPL in particular make no sense to me. 300 to 400 is 45 days and they are no more profitable now than they were last year but they are 100% more valuable. MSFT at least have the increased space in "cloud computing and collaborative environment" in the WFH world but I think I'm at take my money and run for the moment. That will be end of my bargain purchases, except for my index purchases which I will keep until retirement if I reasonably can.

I, of course, will rue my decision like I did with TSLA, SPOT, and ROKU.

Edit, if only I could do this every day.

Everything I own continues to creep up today, except MSFT and AAPL which are creeping down. I took a portion of my sale and went gambling and put in a $7 covered call for GE for the 31st at purchase price of $6.93 (nearly a buck more than I paid two weeks ago, which should be my red light but... gambling...) a share for a $37 sale (or $36.35 as it works out to be). April through July has been one giant case of the rich getting richer. I could definitely see people developing a sort gambling megalomania out of this. This ride's gonna stop somewhere and every instinct I have says is should be with all of these earnings reports and yet my portfolio continues to increase by 1/2% a day even before I tinker with it. I just don't get it.

User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 23609
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

Don't worry, LM, This time it's different.
My continuing adventures of learning to play piano. - Now Playing Moonlight Sonata

Amazon Kindle Book Loaning Thread

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog

User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 63073
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

Trust me I understand (though it won't keep my from coming and lamenting when it all comes crashing down).

On a sidenote, I know you are a Berkshire guy and I read Buffett has directed nigh on 50% of his non cash to go to AAPL. Again, I don't get it.

Here we go

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/diver ... 2020-07-07
Berkshire now owns more than $91 billion in Apple shares, representing 43% of the conglomerate’s entire portfolio
Warren Buffett once said that “diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing.” The take-away: Load up on what you know.

Even if it’s a tech stock, apparently.

A recent peek into Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A, +0.91% BRK.B, +0.94% $214 billion portfolio underscores that the Oracle of Omaha is following his own advice, considering how much stock Berkshire has accumulated in Apple AAPL, -1.38%.

Buffett, thanks to Apple’s stellar run, now owns more than $91 billion’s worth of the iPhone maker, which constitutes 43% of the total Berkshire pie, according to figures cited by the Motley Fool.

User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 23609
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

He rarely sells things he's invested in except when things materially change. There's multiple reasons including tax hits and disposing of large positions.

I do wish he'd be more active sometimes, but conservative investing has served him really well.
My continuing adventures of learning to play piano. - Now Playing Moonlight Sonata

Amazon Kindle Book Loaning Thread

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog

User avatar
xwraith
Posts: 931
Joined: Mon Mar 21, 2005 6:42 pm

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by xwraith »

Zaxxon wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:44 pm
Similar for me, only replace AMD with Tesla. Wednesday will be interesting for me this time around.
Looking at AMD after hours after the INTC earnings call and I’m really wishing I bought those 50 Leap calls a couple of weeks ago, but I said to my self wait for earnings to pass. At this point my highest priced 62.5 covered call is now well under where the stock is going to open. Going to let some of my lower priced covered calls go and try and roll out some out to September and get some premium and a bit more intrinsic value and wait.

Edit: fixed my option position type
Last edited by xwraith on Fri Jul 24, 2020 9:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
I forgot to call it "a box of pure malevolent evil, a purveyor of
insidious insanity, an eldritch manifestation that would make Bill
Gates let out a low whistle of admiration," but it's all those, too.
-- David Gerard, Re: [Mediawiki-l] Wikitext grammar, 2010.08.06

User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 63073
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

xwraith wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:22 pm
Zaxxon wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:44 pm
Similar for me, only replace AMD with Tesla. Wednesday will be interesting for me this time around.
Looking at AMD after hours after the INTC earnings call and I’m really wishing I bought those 50 Leap calls a couple of weeks ago, but I said to my self wait for earnings to pass. At this point my highest priced 62.5 call is now well under where the stock is going to open. Going to let some of my lower priced calls go and try and roll out some out to September and get some premium and a bit more intrinsic value and wait.
Wow. Pre-market INTC is under $53 so far this morning. (Down 13%)

User avatar
LawBeefaroni
Forum Moderator
Posts: 48973
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:08 pm
Location: Urbs in Horto, where we only use the old smilies
LawBeefaroni OO’s avatar
Loading…

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Got crushed on some INTC calls. Should have stuck with my usual AMD trade.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

MYT

User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 63073
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

Earnings reports and buying (selling) is a double edged sword. I was slowly trying to get to 100 shares of VZ which was slipping while everything else was rising. Earnings seem to be jacking up the price. I guess I can take those orders of buy on the way down off the table.

User avatar
LawBeefaroni
Forum Moderator
Posts: 48973
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:08 pm
Location: Urbs in Horto, where we only use the old smilies
LawBeefaroni OO’s avatar
Loading…

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

TSM doing ok, no options there but I have a decent amount of shares.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

MYT

User avatar
Zaxxon
Forum Moderator
Posts: 23082
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:11 am
Location: Surrounded by Mountains

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

The call I had sold on Tesla expiring today looks like it'll work out and not be exercised after having given me some palpitations recently.

User avatar
Zaxxon
Forum Moderator
Posts: 23082
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:11 am
Location: Surrounded by Mountains

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

I'm sure that this is all entirely on the up-and-up.







Currently at $33.20.

User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 63073
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

Zaxxon wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 12:38 pm
I'm sure that this is all entirely on the up-and-up.







Currently at $33.20.
R&P
Spoiler:
1) The Trump effect should be illegal and he should be in prison on this alone dozens of times over

2) Left or right, twitter is spot on and those mass buys should be investigated and anyone with inside knowledge should have their gains seized and go go to jail.

User avatar
Isgrimnur
Posts: 66079
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Chookity pok
Contact:
Isgrimnur’s avatar
Loading…

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Isgrimnur »

LordMortis wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:14 pm
go go to jail.
Go, go Gadget Kriminal Sopina!

User avatar
LawBeefaroni
Forum Moderator
Posts: 48973
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:08 pm
Location: Urbs in Horto, where we only use the old smilies
LawBeefaroni OO’s avatar
Loading…

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

There was probably a leak or a few select phone calls made over the weekend.


Kodak's chairman bought over 45K shares a month ago. $103K at the time. Worth $1.5M or so today.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

MYT

User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 63073
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

$44.68



Day's Change
36.74 (462.69%)

Shares Outstanding
43.7M

Volume(Heavy Day)
218,749,646
10:51 am ET
*Eastman Kodak Shares Halted On Volatility To Downside; Down 21% From Session High
52 Million shares traded at 10:00 on the 28th


Malfeasance.

Was his speech before or after 10:00?

User avatar
LawBeefaroni
Forum Moderator
Posts: 48973
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:08 pm
Location: Urbs in Horto, where we only use the old smilies
LawBeefaroni OO’s avatar
Loading…

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

It wasn't during trading. At least the announcement wasn't.


It halted several times today on the crazy action. 15, 20 times?


https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=TradeHalts#
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

MYT

User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 63073
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

Tempted to take some of my paycheck and buy into cheap eat at home staples like K, SMJ, and CPB but I think this is about to get a lot worse (I almost move my 401K into the basically 0% yield money market stuff we discussed a while back, but I fear I don't control timing on that... and I'm still debating it) and I think I want to start building cash not tying up more of it. School, sports, and earnings reports across the board, I think are about to kill 3 months of "euphoria."

Edit: Put my money where my fears are. I put up September calls on my VT, VTI, and VYM positions at $85, $179, and $88. I will be watching them and potentially buy those calls back if a dip goes low enough.
Last edited by LordMortis on Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
LawBeefaroni
Forum Moderator
Posts: 48973
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:08 pm
Location: Urbs in Horto, where we only use the old smilies
LawBeefaroni OO’s avatar
Loading…

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

OSTK is crazy. Last time I trimmed the position I bought back about 10% cheaper. I'm not expecting that again but it's becoming way too big a position here...
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

MYT

User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 63073
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

Had been eyeballing ADT but thought, "how much could security grow during the pandemic?" and then a week and a half later Google announces they are infusing a half billion into the company and taking 6% ownership. I was looking at it at around $7.50 and now it $14 pre-market. Ah well. I did not know the company enough to put my money up.

User avatar
LawBeefaroni
Forum Moderator
Posts: 48973
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:08 pm
Location: Urbs in Horto, where we only use the old smilies
LawBeefaroni OO’s avatar
Loading…

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

LordMortis wrote:
Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:09 am
Had been eyeballing ADT but thought, "how much could security grow during the pandemic?" and then a week and a half later Google announces they are infusing a half billion into the company and taking 6% ownership. I was looking at it at around $7.50 and now it $14 pre-market. Ah well. I did not know the company enough to put my money up.
A friend told me about CWH back in April when it was $5. I already had a lot of COVID plays so I passed. It's $38+ today.

:grund:



Have been accumulating some TA but I think I'm done adding at $14.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

MYT

User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 63073
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

Where are you before the fact, instead of after? :P

User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 63073
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

noxiousdog wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:56 pm
Don't worry, LM, This time it's different.
I'm down to 1 share of AAPL and started putting covered calls on my indexes. I'm unhappily buying more CDs at losing money to inflation (which I assume is going to crazy in the next few years, especially for unincluded "volatile" things like utilities and food) rates. I'm still in gambling mode having bought things like NOK at just above $5 and then selling $5 covered calls for $.12 a piece on Friday. And yet my "on paper" value just keeps shooting up.

Schools starts when? Delaying mortgages is reduced when? CARES money dries up when? I just don't get it. Not just when does the panicked over correction start but when does reality set in on what companies bring in vs what they are pouring out? Assuming my call start hitting strikes, I'm seriously eyeballing CPB, BUD, and SJM. All of which are reasonably good dividend stocks and look like I should have found money for last week but still look good to me...

Edit: It looks like I also put K on my watchlist... but it hasn't trended up like the other 3...

User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 23609
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

LordMortis wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 10:33 am
noxiousdog wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:56 pm
Don't worry, LM, This time it's different.
I'm down to 1 share of AAPL and started putting covered calls on my indexes. I'm unhappily buying more CDs at losing money to inflation (which I assume is going to crazy in the next few years, especially for unincluded "volatile" things like utilities and food) rates. I'm still in gambling mode having bought things like NOK at just above $5 and then selling $5 covered calls for $.12 a piece on Friday. And yet my "on paper" value just keeps shooting up.
Don't buy CDs. Cash is more valuable. You'd rather have the option to invest $1000 whenever the market tanks than the $10/yr you could make at 1%.
My continuing adventures of learning to play piano. - Now Playing Moonlight Sonata

Amazon Kindle Book Loaning Thread

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog

User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 63073
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

noxiousdog wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:19 pm
Don't buy CDs. Cash is more valuable. You'd rather have the option to invest $1000 whenever the market tanks than the $10/yr you could make at 1%.
Agreed, rates are literally worthless, which I believe is only feeding the irrational market bull, but I buy CDs to protect me against my own stupidity. I had been building a ladder with the intent of building out two years living expenses and the only reason I've stuck with continuing its growth is because I could easily find myself accumulating cash and then making a very dumb, spur of the moment, uninformed decision that ends up not just being gambling, but totally irresponsible gambling. It's a matter of knowing me and mitigating against how dumb that me can be.

Knowing me, Not buying CDs would see me not accumulating cash, but having bought ADT (a current winner I'd promptly get out of) or now would see me buying stay at home staples companies, whose short term value remains to be seen. Feeling like there is no losing position and why not get my table scraps while the wealth at the top is getting theirs but...
Don't worry, LM, This time it's different.
It's my equivalent of the kind of bad money management that forces budget envelopes or Christmas accounts.

User avatar
Zaxxon
Forum Moderator
Posts: 23082
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:11 am
Location: Surrounded by Mountains

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

Remember that typically the best returns are earned by folks who act as though they are dead.

malchior
Posts: 12137
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by malchior »

LordMortis wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 10:33 am
I'm unhappily buying more CDs at losing money to inflation (which I assume is going to crazy in the next few years, especially for unincluded "volatile" things like utilities and food) rates.
Food yes. Utilities probably not. Headline inflation is going to be super low probably. We might end up fighting deflation. That is part of why the CD rates are so bad.
noxiousdog wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:19 pm
Don't buy CDs. Cash is more valuable. You'd rather have the option to invest $1000 whenever the market tanks than the $10/yr you could make at 1%.
This! Most assets are trading at a premium. It's likely better to be positioned for when the opportunities appear.

User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 63073
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

malchior wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:48 pm
LordMortis wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 10:33 am
I'm unhappily buying more CDs at losing money to inflation (which I assume is going to crazy in the next few years, especially for unincluded "volatile" things like utilities and food) rates.
Food yes. Utilities probably not. Headline inflation is going to be super low probably. We might end up fighting deflation. That is part of why the CD rates are so bad.
Maybe I've been underpaying for electric, sanitation, Internet, and water cause, they sure ain't deflating. I keep getting notices of increase (and new millage authorities as well). Gas has gone down and my cell bill have been stable.

User avatar
Zaxxon
Forum Moderator
Posts: 23082
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:11 am
Location: Surrounded by Mountains

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

LordMortis wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:53 pm
malchior wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:48 pm
LordMortis wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 10:33 am
I'm unhappily buying more CDs at losing money to inflation (which I assume is going to crazy in the next few years, especially for unincluded "volatile" things like utilities and food) rates.
Food yes. Utilities probably not. Headline inflation is going to be super low probably. We might end up fighting deflation. That is part of why the CD rates are so bad.
Maybe I've been underpaying for electric, sanitation, Internet, and water cause, they sure ain't deflating. I keep getting notices of increase (and new millage authorities as well). Gas has gone down and my cell bill have been stable.
Solar panels! :horse:

malchior
Posts: 12137
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by malchior »

LordMortis wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:53 pm
malchior wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:48 pm
LordMortis wrote:
Tue Aug 04, 2020 10:33 am
I'm unhappily buying more CDs at losing money to inflation (which I assume is going to crazy in the next few years, especially for unincluded "volatile" things like utilities and food) rates.
Food yes. Utilities probably not. Headline inflation is going to be super low probably. We might end up fighting deflation. That is part of why the CD rates are so bad.
Maybe I've been underpaying for electric, sanitation, Internet, and water cause, they sure ain't deflating. I keep getting notices of increase (and new millage authorities as well). Gas has gone down and my cell bill have been stable.
You have to look forward. Unless the economy recovers there will be significant IS-LM based deflationary pressure. Aggregate demand is probably going to continue to be a drag. As to utilities like water and Internet? Sure they might go up a little but energy prices in particular are at rock bottom. They are close to extraction cost now.

User avatar
LawBeefaroni
Forum Moderator
Posts: 48973
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:08 pm
Location: Urbs in Horto, where we only use the old smilies
LawBeefaroni OO’s avatar
Loading…

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

LordMortis wrote:
Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:34 am
Where are you before the fact, instead of after? :P
TA +18% today on earnings.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

MYT

User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 63073
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

:clap:

User avatar
LawBeefaroni
Forum Moderator
Posts: 48973
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:08 pm
Location: Urbs in Horto, where we only use the old smilies
LawBeefaroni OO’s avatar
Loading…

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Busy morning. Picked up some CWH (high risk!) and SWBI. Sold (to close) VSTO August $15 calls on earnings.

Sitting on Mar 2021 SIVR calls as a silver proxy, with the hope to exercise in March but I might just sell them now. Bought at $2.75, currently $8.40. OTOH, these are $20 calls with SIVR at $27.30 so not a huge premium. Decisions.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

MYT

User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 63073
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

Fascinating. How do you find time to keep up with so many different areas? If I had the money and time I'd learn about CWH, that sounds to good to be true. buying at $36.30 and then instantly selling a call $37 for on the 21st at $2.50 sounds awesome but $3630 is too much for my ignorance. If it feel back to $28 or worse, I'd reel in pain. I do absolutely love seeing what you are thinking and doing in something closer to a live environment.

User avatar
LawBeefaroni
Forum Moderator
Posts: 48973
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:08 pm
Location: Urbs in Horto, where we only use the old smilies
LawBeefaroni OO’s avatar
Loading…

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

I can take shortcuts, having done this for a while. I completely ignore a lot of noise and sectors. I have a short list of metrics I focus on. I have made many trades and understand intimately the strategies I use and don't use the ones I don't understand. I have friends who are chartists who I get ideas from and bounce trades off of (I think charting is voodoo but it seems to produce results).

I have a list of about 80 stocks that I keep an eye on. It rotates a bit but the core group is the same so I don't have to continually do deep dives into a company or issue.

Still, I don't have as much time as I'd like and miss some trades or fail to get the most out of some I do make. Perils of a day job.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

MYT

User avatar
Carpet_pissr
Posts: 14028
Joined: Thu Nov 04, 2004 5:32 pm
Location: Columbia, SC

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Some comments from reading the past 3 or 4 pages, since I've been gone awhile;

1. AMZN - Someone a few pages back mentioned that $3,000 AMZN is insane. I remember a couple (?) years ago, and then before that, we had quite a discussion around that very topic. Except that back then it was like $2,000, then $1500, etc. I won't rehash now, but can we finally agree (as a financial community - not just here, I mean analysts, both good and bad, over the years) that AMZN was right, and the naysayers, yes, all the smart analysts from the very early years who joked about the continually high valuations given the lack of profits, etc., were wrong. Obviously, you try to fit AMZN into a traditional DCF model or any other repeatable analysis concept that I've seen, and it looks insane. Has looked that way for years. Having said ALL that...I finally started seriously selling off my shares over the past several weeks.

Few reasons:
1. It had reached and far surpassed my very optimistic "sell point" (that I will note I continually adjusted up, over the years, so take that FWIW) That point was around $2600, and had been at that number for at least a couple years.
2. It had become a massive % of my entire (including my wife's) portfolio. So oversized that if Bezos sneezed and the stock went down 5%, I would have had a very very bad day. I think it reached 38% of my total at the peak. That's just...not good.
3. I read a relatively pessimistic article about future growth which made a lot of sense. Most neg articles about AMZN over the years have been the same old tired criticism using DCF models that are/were frankly boring, and very wrong. (Not knocking DCF, I still adhere to the concept, just was not great for AMZN) Crazily it was from The Motley Fool (mostly ad bait these days), but it hit me with some serious numbers, mainly the massive amount of market saturation that AMZN already has (US market) with Prime, specifically. Can't remember the exact numbers, but the percentage of households who already have Prime were so high, there just wasn't much elsewhere to go but down (one component of many in the article)
4. Mr. Bezos Goes to Washington. I had been pretty wary for the past couple years at how quickly AMZN was gobbling up companies, and how quickly it had been growing. Anti-trust action was increasingly in my investing mind about my holding, and when I heard he was finally going before Congress, that put some serious sweat beads on my forehead. I used it as an excuse (didn't hurt that stock was trading at an all time high or close, around $3200 maybe? $3400?) to dump a crapton of shares. Just too risky that some congressman pulls out a surprise report he'd been working on for 2 years showing obvious anti-trust behavior and recommending a breakup, etc. It didn't go down like that, but it certainly could have.
5. If ANYthing were to happen to Bezos...gets sick, retires, goes insane from being a near trillionaire (yes, he's on course to being the first human trillionaire) and lights his mounds of cash on fire around him...the stock will absolutely implode. He is pretty much AMZN (right now), and you don't hear much talk of succession, or a strong number 2, etc.

Yeesh. That's already so long I'm not going to continue my list in this post. :D Will post later with current positions and sales if anyone is interested. Spoiler: I FINALLY sold ALL my F at a loss about a month or two ago. After years and years of holding...I just got fed up after the last couple earnings releases and comments. Have not even looked at the share price since I sold.

Post Reply