Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

[xwraith]

Naturally I make some moves and the AMD purchase of Xilinix breaks overnight and earnings gets released first thing in the morning.

Ah chaos ....

If the stock drops below $78 I may buy another 100 shares and sell another ATM December put.

[LawBeefaroni]

I like the Xilinx deal but AMD paid a lot.




All out of EXAS now. Edit: and CAT.

[LawBeefaroni]

Also capitulated on BTC. Been buying some every week since June but have been increasing buys lately.

[Carpet_pissr]

Anyone have thoughts on Intel?

[LawBeefaroni]

Not touching it.

[LordMortis]

Probably a big mistake but I'm buying right now. (not Intel... VTI, VT, SPY which are already so expensive that few shares will tap me out. If I had more to free up, I'd probably be shopping for deals) I never did wind down my personal portfolio but I did start growing cash because I wasn't putting in new money and I stopped my CD ladder when I started being forced to buy from the secondary market and couldn't tell if after taxes if the those CDs were actually going to cost me money when they were paying at like 4% by my effective rate was like .15% or less.

My 401k still sits in money market that is bleeding about $200-$400 a month over the few months it's been there. Last week I was upset at ever moving it. Today I'm thankful I didn't move it back last week.

Also this >< close to finding a way to pick up 100 shares of PRPL just $30.20 and then selling a $30 option at $2.70+ for Nov 20th putting squarely into the category of gambling with $3000 as my knowledge of PRPL is everyone I know who buys Purple love them.

[LawBeefaroni]

I'm not buying here. My goal was to be out of all trades by Nov. I probably won't be 100% out but will be close. I think there is a lot more room on the downside. This week is only a blip.

Not shorting yet, waiting to see more confirmation one way or the other.


Trades I'm having a hard time letting go of but probably should:
SWBI
CWH
BMYrt
OSTK

[LordMortis]

I think things could 10 or 15% worse easy. But I also think I'm not smart enough to time a market and I simply don't know enough to say it will go south another 10-15% before it gets better. I do think COVID reality is series of three punches right now:

1) Trump's support for "K shape recovery" is in probably more in danger by the COVID resurgence than it is any other factor and money has been loving the K shape recovery.
2) The finance sector is coming to realize how truly fucked it is if Congress can't get it's shit together, like, now.
3) That little thing about passing our 7 day average highs record and climbing, wherein the case report rising is literally one step away from hospital care report rising and two steps away from wherever packed hospitals lead us. ( and with a forgotten promise of "end of October vaccine distribution" and everyone is going to get Presidential care.)

edit:

I just picked up 4 shares of VTI to get to an even number and put in an order to buy a share of SPY at $325, $320, $315, and $310. No more money from me for now.

[LordMortis]

Fear caused me to buy back some of my Nov 20 covered calls prematurely and pushed them out Dec 18 calls so I didn't have to find a bankroll to to pay a higher premium. Made some good money and upped my call pricing at the same time but I think it would have been better had I waited. 3.5% jump in SPY spooked me though.

Calls pushed out: NOV 20 SPY 352 to DEC 360, 88 NOV 20 VT to 90 DEC 18, 185 NOV 20 VTI to 190 DEC 18 VTI, NOV 20 7.5 F to DEC 18 8 F (I actually did this before today and F started falling thereafter) Every single one of these calls put in at a crazy price of 15%+ gain in less than a month from the time of placement.

The market seems to have pulled back a bit. it looks like SPY hit $347.94 (not coincidentally around the time I stated looking at the risk of keeping my calls as they were) but has settled back to 344.11. I think this would have been more profitable had I had more patience but I can't afford to buy back calls or risk that market goes up while options go flat and sell what I don't actually want to sell. These are positions I spent six years building.

I much prefer selling what I think it is ridiculous price for some of these calls at nearly $200 a pop and watching them tick down to nearly $0 then seeing them hit $500 and having to buy them back at $500 and then sell them for $520 at only a slightly higher call amount. I still make money and keep my stock which is also gaining value. But... greed and fear....

[noxiousdog]

Borrowed from another borrower:
We all need a refresher on biases once in a while:

Empathy Gap — we have a hard time predicting how we’ll act during some future stressful event. We overestimate our intellectual abilities and underestimate our emotional drive. Planning ahead helps avoid emotional decisions in the heat of the moment.

The Illusion of Control — we think we can influence the outcome and often mistake randomness for control. Also, the illusion of control enhances our optimistic tendencies.

Self-Serving Bias — we tend to act in our best interests.

Over-Optimism Bias — we tend to be optimistic by nature. We have a positive bias, believing good results will not only happen more often than bad results but will be better than expected.

Overconfidence Bias — we tend to be more confident in our own abilities. We believe we’re above average — drivers, lovers, workers, investors, predictors of the future — even though we can’t all be above average. And we often confuse confidence in ourselves and others for skill. Even worse, we tend to believe people who sound confident even when they’re wrong. The solution to over-optimism and overconfidence is to be skeptical, disciplined, and always ask, “Why should I own this investment?”
The Illusion of Knowledge — confusing a surface understanding of something with a deep knowledge of it. The internet is a wondrous thing that perpetuates this.

Confirmation Bias — we are more likely to look for information that agrees with our conclusions, beliefs, and decisions than disagrees. Sometimes confidence plays a neat trick where we discount disconfirming evidence as “wrong,” sometimes we’re willfully blind to it, and sometimes we twist it to support our conclusions. Willfully trying to prove ourselves wrong solves this problem. Ask the question, “What are all the ways this could go wrong?”

Conservatism Bias — we’re slow to change our minds when new information arrives.

Sunk Cost Fallacy — we tend to allow past costs — like time, money, emotion, or effort — to affect current decisions.

Narrative Fallacy — we try to give meaning to random series of events or facts by weaving a story around it that forces a link of cause and effect rather than judging each individual event on its own merits. Stories are in constant supply in the stock market. Every stock covered in the media is given a story. IPOs literally go on a roadshow to spread their story. Then there are story stocks, which trade not on fundamentals, but hope and promise of future potential. All these stories can affect our views because almost all have an emotional pull to it. Even the daily market moves get stories. The day to day market fluctuations are mostly random. That doesn’t stop everyone from trying to give meaning to the movements. The fictional stories might offer some certainty for the randomness of markets but its all nonsense. It’s best to just tune out the noise and stick to the facts.

Myopia — extreme focus on the short term.

Inattentional Blindness — being blind to the obvious because we’re focused on something else.

Self-Attribution Bias — we see success due to skill and failure due to bad luck, something out of our control, or might even blame it on someone (something) else. The markets are full of scapegoats easily blamed for investor mistakes.

Hindsight Bias — the knew-it-all-along-effect. After knowing the outcome, we believe it was more easily predictable than it was at the time. The only way around it is to keep a record of the reasons behind investment decisions and track the outcomes. Then you’ll know if it was due to skill (right for the right reasons), good luck (right for the wrong reasons), bad luck (wrong for the right reasons), or a mistake (wrong for the wrong reasons). It adds accountable to your original views before you knew the outcome.

Action Bias — the need to do something instead of nothing. We love quick results. It’s why get-rich-quick schemes never go out of style. Also, we have a bias toward action and the urge to act is higher after a loss. So BE PATIENT! Discipline helps too. Also, trust in the process.

Social Pain — studies show we find it uncomfortable to go against the crowd even if the view is wrong. When we do, it can trigger emotional fear.

Groupthink — when the desire to conform is so high that a group’s decision-making suffers immensely. This can spiral to the point that those with opposing views are shunned, leaving only those that share the same views.

Introspection Bias — we believe we know ourselves better than we actually do.

Fundamental Attribution Error — we tend to blame other people’s actions on their behavior while blaming our own actions on external factors.

Loss Aversion — we hate losses about twice as much as we enjoy gains. Or losses loom larger than gains. A short-term focus makes loss aversion worse, since the randomness of markets in the short term can deliver brief paper losses at any time. Also, constantly checking your portfolio means you’re more likely to notice said paper losses. So stop constantly checking your portfolio!

Disposition Effect — the tendency to sell winning investments and hold on to losing investments. One study of investor brokerage accounts found that investors held losing stocks longer than winning stocks, are almost twice as likely to sell winners than hold losers, and that the sold winners outperformed the held losers. Any number of biases – over-optimism, overconfidence, sunk cost, self-attribution — can be behind it. Simply, we hold onto losers in the hopes of a recovery and are worse off for it. Also, professional investors aren’t much better.

Endowment Effect — we put a higher value on things after we own it than before.

Status Quo Bias — we prefer things stay the same and show it by doing nothing. Believing something is worth more than the current asking price and a bias towards inactions result in a natural reluctance to sell. Of course, knowing when to sell is one of the hardest, yet most important parts of investing.

Outcome Bias — we tend to judge past decisions based on the quality of the outcome rather than the quality of the decision. This is poor investing in a nutshell. It’s also how most people view gambling outcomes. Every decision has four possible results: good decision/good outcome (deserved success), good decision/bad outcome (bad break), bad decision/good outcome (dumb luck), bad decision/bad outcome (poetic justice). A hyper-focus on outcomes leads to general stupidity like higher loss aversion, a need to embrace certainty, embracing noise, and following the herd. See outcomes for what they are: the result of a good or bad decision…which you won’t know unless you judge decision independent of the outcome. Also, having a good process helps.

If all of this sounds overwhelming, don’t worry. Most people will believe these biases don’t apply to them. As if it wasn’t hard enough, we’re blind to our own biases.

[LordMortis]

Buying back most of the remainder of my Nov covered calls and pushing them out to Dec at a higher price and some at a higher call and price. I'm really wondering if I should let some go. I continue to not understand but I continue to trickle in money. I just hope I'm trickling in enough to cover when it at contracts. I also picked up 100 shares of HBANC and IVZ this morning with my ill gotten gains in pushing out my covered call and maturing CDs I didn't want renew at current rates. I'm sure I'll regret this but hopefully not enough to be angry with myself.

And future note to myself, what I should be doing, if anything, is increasing my VTI (Currently at 185 which I just can't warrant) or standing pat instead of playing with covered calls.

[LordMortis]

CVS that I never sold off is taking a beating on Amazon seemingly moving forward on something they were talking about years ago. AKA Amazon pharmacy.

Also pushed out the last of my November 20 Calls, 100 shares of SDC at a $9.50 call again and again have almost paid for themselves after they dropped this morning... from better than expected earnings (or losses really)? If I had studied Lawbeef's thoughts on SDC way back when and learned about SDC financials vs the speculation, It'd all be free money by now, even after taxes. Took my call push out money and listened to my own advice. Picked up another share of VTI, even if the price is too high.

I forget where we stand with TSLA, How many thousands pre-split does Zax need to be before I can envy his retirement again?

[Zaxxon]

I forget where we stand with TSLA, How many thousands pre-split does Zax need to be before I can envy his retirement again?

Need at least another digit in the post-split stock price. I am glad that the S&P finally acknowledged reality, though. Interesting conundrum that the stock is now so large that they are debating whether they can add Tesla all at once or will need to use two timed tranches.

[noxiousdog]

I forget where we stand with TSLA, How many thousands pre-split does Zax need to be before I can envy his retirement again?

Need at least another digit in the post-split stock price. I am glad that the S&P finally acknowledged reality, though. Interesting conundrum that the stock is now so large that they are debating whether they can add Tesla all at once or will need to use two timed tranches.

This at the same time they are hiding/doing away with the standard range model 3. Wasn't that supposed to be how they brought EVs to the masses?

[Zaxxon]

I forget where we stand with TSLA, How many thousands pre-split does Zax need to be before I can envy his retirement again?

Need at least another digit in the post-split stock price. I am glad that the S&P finally acknowledged reality, though. Interesting conundrum that the stock is now so large that they are debating whether they can add Tesla all at once or will need to use two timed tranches.

This at the same time they are hiding/doing away with the standard range model 3. Wasn't that supposed to be how they brought EVs to the masses?

They've sold it for 3+ years now (yes, off-menu). The entry is now $38k, for a *far* better vehicle than the $35k 3 was promised to be. (0-60 in < 6, 215+ miles range, Autopilot *available* at reveal, vs 5.3s, 263 miles, Autopilot included today.) Also, $35k in 2016 is... $38k in 2020 dollars. I'm fine with them nuking it.

They brought EVs to the masses by bringing EVs to the masses. Next year they'll continue that trend when sales again go up several dozen percent over 2020.

[noxiousdog]

I forget where we stand with TSLA, How many thousands pre-split does Zax need to be before I can envy his retirement again?

Need at least another digit in the post-split stock price. I am glad that the S&P finally acknowledged reality, though. Interesting conundrum that the stock is now so large that they are debating whether they can add Tesla all at once or will need to use two timed tranches.

This at the same time they are hiding/doing away with the standard range model 3. Wasn't that supposed to be how they brought EVs to the masses?

They've sold it for 3+ years now (yes, off-menu). The entry is now $38k, for a *far* better vehicle than the $35k 3 was promised to be. (0-60 in < 6, 215+ miles range, Autopilot *available* at reveal, vs 5.3s, 263 miles, Autopilot included today.) Also, $35k in 2016 is... $38k in 2020 dollars. I'm fine with them nuking it.

They brought EVs to the masses by bringing EVs to the masses. Next year they'll continue that trend when sales again go up several dozen percent over 2020.

Autopilot isn't 38k.

[Zaxxon]

I forget where we stand with TSLA, How many thousands pre-split does Zax need to be before I can envy his retirement again?

Need at least another digit in the post-split stock price. I am glad that the S&P finally acknowledged reality, though. Interesting conundrum that the stock is now so large that they are debating whether they can add Tesla all at once or will need to use two timed tranches.

This at the same time they are hiding/doing away with the standard range model 3. Wasn't that supposed to be how they brought EVs to the masses?

They've sold it for 3+ years now (yes, off-menu). The entry is now $38k, for a *far* better vehicle than the $35k 3 was promised to be. (0-60 in < 6, 215+ miles range, Autopilot *available* at reveal, vs 5.3s, 263 miles, Autopilot included today.) Also, $35k in 2016 is... $38k in 2020 dollars. I'm fine with them nuking it.

They brought EVs to the masses by bringing EVs to the masses. Next year they'll continue that trend when sales again go up several dozen percent over 2020.

Autopilot isn't 38k.

Are you questioning my Tesla knowledge? Yes, Autopilot is included on all Teslas (except the $35k off-menu version). You're thinking of full self-driving, which is its own thing.

[noxiousdog]

I forget where we stand with TSLA, How many thousands pre-split does Zax need to be before I can envy his retirement again?

Need at least another digit in the post-split stock price. I am glad that the S&P finally acknowledged reality, though. Interesting conundrum that the stock is now so large that they are debating whether they can add Tesla all at once or will need to use two timed tranches.

This at the same time they are hiding/doing away with the standard range model 3. Wasn't that supposed to be how they brought EVs to the masses?

They've sold it for 3+ years now (yes, off-menu). The entry is now $38k, for a *far* better vehicle than the $35k 3 was promised to be. (0-60 in < 6, 215+ miles range, Autopilot *available* at reveal, vs 5.3s, 263 miles, Autopilot included today.) Also, $35k in 2016 is... $38k in 2020 dollars. I'm fine with them nuking it.

They brought EVs to the masses by bringing EVs to the masses. Next year they'll continue that trend when sales again go up several dozen percent over 2020.

Autopilot isn't 38k.

Are you questioning my Tesla knowledge? Yes, Autopilot is included on all Teslas (except the $35k off-menu version). You're thinking of full self-driving, which is its own thing.

Ah. My bad. The autopilot that isn't really autopilot.

[noxiousdog]

FWIW, this is a sore spot for me because I worked for Enron. I saw what con men can do to people's fortunes. Even if they are really smart con men.

[Zaxxon]

FWIW, this is a sore spot for me because I worked for Enron. I saw what con men can do to people's fortunes. Even if they are really smart con men.

We're (or I'm, at least) well aware of your perception of Musk. Mis-perception, IMO, though you're certainly entitled to it.

The dude has flaws, significant ones (see: COVID rants). But the astronauts currently on the space station probably don't view his promises as false. Nor do I, driving vehicles that actually exist and do more than they were promised to do.

[coopasonic]

Is Tesla wildly overvalued? Probably. Is Elon responsible for that? I mean yes, but not really. Tesla delivers on everything they promise... eventually. The pattern has been set for years and investors are still crazy for the stock.

Basically, where's the con?

I recognize they have issues specifically in logistics, customer service and communication, but again that is pretty well known and investors don't seems to care.

Note I am not really familiar with the details of the Enron story. I didn't have any money then.

[LawBeefaroni]

BTC $17.6K

[LordMortis]

FWIW, this is a sore spot for me because I worked for Enron. I saw what con men can do to people's fortunes. Even if they are really smart con men.

We're (or I'm, at least) well aware of your perception of Musk. Mis-perception, IMO, though you're certainly entitled to it.

The dude has flaws, significant ones (see: COVID rants). But the astronauts currently on the space station probably don't view his promises as false. Nor do I, driving vehicles that actually exist and do more than they were promised to do.

He walks a fine line between engineer/visionary leader and conman. His ability to be a conman funds his vision and his vision feeds his con. He is what the market will bear no matter how much he does or doesn't produce a car for but he is also moving us toward a (very much needed) greener future.

Basically, where's the con?

First thing I could find.

https://www.elonmusk.today/

[noxiousdog]

FWIW, this is a sore spot for me because I worked for Enron. I saw what con men can do to people's fortunes. Even if they are really smart con men.

We're (or I'm, at least) well aware of your perception of Musk. Mis-perception, IMO, though you're certainly entitled to it.

The dude has flaws, significant ones (see: COVID rants). But the astronauts currently on the space station probably don't view his promises as false. Nor do I, driving vehicles that actually exist and do more than they were promised to do.

Just because he's smart and delivers a quality product, doesn't mean his company isn't a con. The evidence that he is bilking shareholders is irrefutable. See: 420 tweet and Solar City.

To be valued at 460B, he needs 46B in profit per year. Profit; not sales or revenue. There are exactly 3 corporations in the world in that range; though Microsoft is close and a couple Chinese banks aren't far behind.

[Zaxxon]

Again, I know of your thoughts here; I've heard them before. Your assertions aren't (IMO) evidence of a con. The 420 tweet was (in my estimation based on far too many hours spent studying Musk and Tesla) not a con, nor was the SC acquisition (though a case can certainly be made that a significant motivation was bailing out his cousins, the acquisition did help Tesla more quickly get to its dominant position in solar PV). Certainly questionable judgment in tweeting out the 420 thing. Certainly questionable whether SC needed to be bought by Tesla at the time it was bought, for the amount it was bought. Recall that Musk recused himself from that vote, as well. Certainly his desires were well known, but he didn't use his votes to make that happen, just as he didn't vote his own pay package into being.

Valuation isn't up to Musk; it's up to the market. Musk's pay is tied entirely to shareholders getting obscenely wealthy--he's paid $0 guaranteed, and a key piece of any of his pay tranches is gigantically increased market capitalization. Tough to see how he's conning the shareholders when his outcome is literally tied to theirs. Further, he's actually not able to sell any of the CEO equity grant shares for many years after they're granted. If he's running a con, he's certainly banking on it lasting a very long time.

[LawBeefaroni]

Tough to see how he's conning the shareholders when his outcome is literally tied to theirs. Further, he's actually not able to sell any of the CEO equity grant shares for many years after they're granted. If he's running a con, he's certainly banking on it lasting a very long time.

Not saying it's a con but none of these are actually barriers or even major hinderances to a con.

My take is that it's just vastly overvalued as far as the business side but people will pay what they're willing to for the stock.

[noxiousdog]

Again, I know of your thoughts here; I've heard them before. Your assertions aren't (IMO) evidence of a con. The 420 tweet was (in my estimation based on far too many hours spent studying Musk and Tesla) not a con, nor was the SC acquisition (though a case can certainly be made that a significant motivation was bailing out his cousins, the acquisition did help Tesla more quickly get to its dominant position in solar PV). Certainly questionable judgment in tweeting out the 420 thing. Certainly questionable whether SC needed to be bought by Tesla at the time it was bought, for the amount it was bought. Recall that Musk recused himself from that vote, as well. Certainly his desires were well known, but he didn't use his votes to make that happen, just as he didn't vote his own pay package into being.

So what you're saying is he talked the board and other executives into believing it was a good idea?

Valuation isn't up to Musk; it's up to the market. Musk's pay is tied entirely to shareholders getting obscenely wealthy--he's paid $0 guaranteed, and a key piece of any of his pay tranches is gigantically increased market capitalization. Tough to see how he's conning the shareholders when his outcome is literally tied to theirs. Further, he's actually not able to sell any of the CEO equity grant shares for many years after they're granted. If he's running a con, he's certainly banking on it lasting a very long time.

He's already way, way ahead. It's all gravy now.

[Zaxxon]

I'm saying we're all adults here. And yes, for those invested during the 'con,' it is indeed all gravy now.

[LawBeefaroni]

BTC $18.25K.

[Zaxxon]

I guess $520 is the new $420? I've still been playing the volatility with covered calls. Fun times.

[LordMortis]

I guess $520 is the new $420? I've still been playing the volatility with covered calls. Fun times.

I sold my one share at $520. I'll buy it back at $470... or not...

I would have loved to have played covered call games even when I go on the train at around $250 a share, I could not have dreamed of `100 shares as within my price range.

[Zaxxon]

Nor would I if I hadn't lucked into buying in at $7/share, split-adjusted.

[LawBeefaroni]

BTC $19.4K

ETH $604




I'm at highs for the year as we enter into COVID meltdown. Does not feel right.

[Zaxxon]

BTC $19.4K

ETH $604

I'm at highs for the year as we enter into COVID meltdown. Does not feel right.

Concur.

[malchior]

Same here. YoY up 13% portfolio wide. My dividends are still rolling in. Corporate profits look solid. My timeline for retirement accelerated. That definitely doesn't feel right.

[LordMortis]

Selling my lone share at 520 may have been a bit pre-mature. Tesla stock buyers are crazy.

Market Cap 526.8B

I'll still leave my order in to buy back at $470 because, well, stock market buyers are all crazy right now.

[Zaxxon]

You know it's hitting nosebleed levels when eternal Tesla bull Zaxxon is prepping to sell. Today we hit the point at which about 1/3 of my stake will get called away next month if this level is maintained until then.

I also sold another covered call for 1/2022 at a strike of over $1k. Premiums are absurd even if IV isn't at its highest relative to Tesla's past.

[noxiousdog]

You know it's hitting nosebleed levels when eternal Tesla bull Zaxxon is prepping to sell. Today we hit the point at which about 1/3 of my stake will get called away next month if this level is maintained until then.

I also sold another covered call for 1/2022 at a strike of over $1k. Premiums are absurd even if IV isn't at its highest relative to Tesla's past.

[Zaxxon]

Keep on keepin' on.

[malchior]

I'm glad that I put TSLA on the do not buy list with my wealth manager. No matter how it turns out the whole thing smells wrong and I learned long ago to trust that instinct. That analysis speaks to that to me. The fundamentals are way wrong now and the selling off stock to finance growth makes sense but it is dangerous. What happens if the bottom falls out and they have a cash crisis? That possibility alone makes me think there should be a bright flashing red sign saying 'Extreme Risk' at this moment.