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Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Pyperkub » Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:14 pm

In other news, almost EVERYTHING looks to be taking a beating in After-Hours trading
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog » Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:16 pm

For those of you who like boring stuff, Berkshire is trading around 1.4 times q2 book value. That means any business gains and/or stock market losses in q3 haven't adjusted the ratio, but it's been historically profitable and low risk, especially since they have authorized share repurchases around 1.35 book value.

A stock portfolio loss of 30% would affect Berkshire's book value by about 10%.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni » Fri Oct 26, 2018 2:39 pm

I bought 1,000 more shares of Ford going into earnings on Wednesday but tech has been a major drag in my portfolio. Tech and the above mentioned Berkshire.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis » Thu Nov 01, 2018 9:21 am

After 20 years of building my 401k, having hit a respectable amount (though still not nearly close enough to close the show with) seeing this volatility every day is crazy. Watching 3 months salary disappear in a day, and then 2 months salary come back the next day and right now having what I estimate as over a year's worth of living expenses being devalued from my August high, which includes my contributions draining as well as the pre-existing investments... It reinforces how much I'll need to move the full lot from a 401k to an IRA can truly make more "income" focused than my 401k plan offers.

On the bright side, it's making me happy that I've been doing nothing but trying to finish my basic 2 year CD ladder for the last six months. Like I've finally been doing something prudent.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:53 am

Berkshire earnings were better than expected, but take that with a huge grain of salt. Due to some accounting changes they have to mark to market their equity portfolio so their earnings are subject to stock market volatility.

Due to their real gains, however, their book value per A share is $228,712. That puts A shares at 1.42 times book value or $326,100. Buffett bought back 900 million worth of Berkshire stock last quarter at an average price of $312,806.

Since Buffett himself is buying at 1.45 book, I think buying Berkshire at anything under 1.5 book value ($343068 per A, 228.71 per B) is likely to lead to 10% or better annual returns at very low risk.

There are very few companies where book value is a reliable indicator, but Buffett has used it for buyback purposes so it's useful here.
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"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Pyperkub » Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:35 pm

14/19 Bear market milestones reached:
"Expect a long bout of volatility," Bank of America strategists led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a report published on Sunday.
Bank of America keeps a running tally of "signposts" that signal looming bear market. The bad news is that 14 of these 19 indicators, or 74%, have been triggered. Two more were toppled earlier this month: the VIX volatility index (VIX) climbed above 20 and a growing number of Americans expect stocks to go up...

...Some bear market warning lights, mostly concerning market sentiment, have not yet been lit. For instance, Bank of America sees little evidence of the investor "euphoria" that overheats the market. Also, banks have not broadly tightened lending conditions.
The good news is that Bank of America said that previous market tops were preceded by a higher percentage of bear market signposts being triggered. Four of the past seven bull markets peaked with 100% of the indicators being triggered.

Bank of America found that it has taken the S&P 500 21 months on average to peak when a similar percentage of signposts were toppled.
"History says we've got 21 months," the analysts wrote.
One wonders whether that would be accelerated by the Tax Cuts (as the 2018 bump due to tax repatriation/stock buybacks dies off), the Trade War, as well as the Fed's rate raising.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr » Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:00 pm

Back down to about 10% cash now, after much buying the past several weeks. Whew! Exhausted! :D

Sold some names, bought some new ones. Now my portfolio is (in descending order of total % return to date):

AMZN
ICPT (Newish)
GM
DUK
AGN (New!)
KLAC (New!)
CVS
MCHP
CELG
F

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:10 pm

OK, it's time to play WHO'S STOCK DROPPED THE MOST TODAY?!

I'll go first:

AMAT (Applied Materials) down a modest 7.59%

I feel for anyone that held financials today (with short term plans to sell) - oof.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:13 pm

-3.93% for XAR (SPDR SERIES TRUST S&P AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF )

And yet my old 401k Vanguard funds are all up on the day. I'm actually up +0.42%.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by pr0ner » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:16 pm

My biggest hits appear to be in the tech sector, with AMZN leading the way. All my stocks but 2 are down at least 2%.

Thanks, Tariff Man.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Zaxxon » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:22 pm

Tesla went up for me.
Everything else, not so much...

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:24 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:13 pm
-3.93% for XAR (SPDR SERIES TRUST S&P AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF )

And yet my old 401k Vanguard funds are all up on the day. I'm actually up +0.42%.
Uhhhmmm, check them tomorrow, for today's results. :( Sorry!

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by coopasonic » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:26 pm

COF down 6%, almost buying range, but I'll wait because an actual recession will crush it ahead of the market and I'll buy on the other side. If we can just repeat the events of the last recession I can retire early.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by pr0ner » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:27 pm

Zaxxon wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:22 pm
Tesla went up for me.
Everything else, not so much...
My one stock that went up is an energy stock (D) that has had a history of going up on days the overall market goes down recently.

I can't quite figure out why.

VZ was almost flat.

The rest, megared.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by stessier » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:28 pm

CAT - down 6.93%. I was busy today - what happened?
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:30 pm

BRK for me at 4.84%.
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"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by pr0ner » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:31 pm

stessier wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:28 pm
CAT - down 6.93%. I was busy today - what happened?
Trump happened.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:31 pm

Also, the yield curve inverted.
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"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:32 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:24 pm
Isgrimnur wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:13 pm
-3.93% for XAR (SPDR SERIES TRUST S&P AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF )

And yet my old 401k Vanguard funds are all up on the day. I'm actually up +0.42%.
Uhhhmmm, check them tomorrow, for today's results. :( Sorry!
No worries. I figured something was off.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Pyperkub » Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:34 pm

noxiousdog wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:31 pm
Also, the yield curve inverted.
What? Uh oh.

Linky
Rate strategists have long said that being close doesn’t cut it when talking about an inverted yield curve and the well-known economic implications that come with it, namely that the spread between short- and long-term Treasury yields has dropped below zero ahead of each of the past seven recessions.

It’s important to keep in mind the timeline between inversion and economic slowdowns — it’s not instantaneous. The yield curve from three to five years dipped below zero during the last cycle for the first time in August 2005, some 28 months before the recession began.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni » Tue Dec 04, 2018 8:04 pm

Of the ones that I actively watch and hold, CAT was down the most at -6.93%. GG was up the most at 0.74%. Wondering if it's time to buy EXAS and GE.

And US markets are closed tomorrow for HW's final comment on the economy!
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:15 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:24 pm
Isgrimnur wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:13 pm
-3.93% for XAR (SPDR SERIES TRUST S&P AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF )

And yet my old 401k Vanguard funds are all up on the day. I'm actually up +0.42%.
Uhhhmmm, check them tomorrow, for today's results. :( Sorry!
Vanguard down 3.6%. :horse:
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis » Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:51 am

Big money software unhappy with the state of the market

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... ar-BBQyE1y
The world's largest futures exchange, CME Group, had to repeatedly halt trading in US stock futures for brief periods this morning because of violent price moves, in an unusual intervention that has stunned traders.
It was during this opening in trade that CME Group intervened to manage the volatile trading activity, putting a stop to algorithms closing orders.

The price action caused several CME "Velocity Logic" events, which are triggers to halt futures trading when price movements move too far, or too fast in a given direction.
]

There's more clarity inside but I'm under the impression it's verboten to post entire newslettes and this newslette is very short.

Also, I'm glad I've been doing nothing but building my CD Ladder for the majority of the year. So much so, I'm a bit ascared to follow the tradition of the last four years and max Roth IRA for 2019 on the 1st/2nd of the new year. Though it might turn out to be a great entry point.

My securities have been beaten down this year. The buy and hold thing may not have been so wise (Though I am still holding course), given that my buys were definitely not good buys. I'm pretty damned angry at what I think have been blatant manipulations adding to my already uninformed judgement opening up my personal portfolio in 2k14 but that''s for R&P. I think some of these manipulations are such that I won't bounce back, whereas I chose no winners to get this sort of turmoil. It's all a learning experience, but it's hard to have learning experiences when you are throwing more than a day at the casino's money down with the intent of retiring one day.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by pr0ner » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:16 am

Considering the Dow is down another 420 points as of this posting, I can see why that might have happened.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Isgrimnur » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:30 am

pr0ner wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:16 am
Considering the Dow is down another 420 points as of this posting, I can see why that might have happened.
All that value going up in smoke.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by coopasonic » Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:35 am

:text-banplz:
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by stessier » Thu Dec 06, 2018 12:19 pm

My big loser so far today is AA (-6.02%) and my big winner is LB (+1.50%). It and SIRI are my only positives for the day.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis » Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:20 am

I obsessively check my 401k every day. I missed on Friday, as I had too much to do. Holy crap. I'm down about 3% in two days. I guess I should be glad I missed whatever news drove the market on Friday.

/wonders if it's time to refocus away from CDs in his personal portfolio or if he should be staying the course away from the madness that is havok on his securities and 401k (more securities, no matter how they try to package it)

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by pr0ner » Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:49 pm

Looks like we get to thank Theresa May for today's market fall. Oy.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Zaxxon » Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:11 pm

pr0ner wrote:Looks like we get to thank Theresa May for today's market fall. Oy.
No, Donald Trump tells me that Donald Trump is responsible for all market changes.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Pyperkub » Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:12 pm

Zaxxon wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:11 pm
pr0ner wrote:Looks like we get to thank Theresa May for today's market fall. Oy.
No, Donald Trump tells me that Donald Trump is responsible for all market changes.
Yeah, I'm going with the Trump Dump.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni » Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:28 pm

pr0ner wrote:
Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:49 pm
Looks like we get to thank Theresa May for today's market fall. Oy.
This morning it was mostly APPL and the potential China ban. AAPL is a crazy big chunk of the Dow. AAPL's recovery has things back up.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis » Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:09 am

If this is the Christmas bump, we're going to be in for a rough January.

Since I began building a portfolio, I've done my Roth IRA contribution in full on January 1st every year mostly just putting more in to broad indexes. I have that money set aside right now, It looks like a great entry point, but at the same time the seas are choppy.

Also, I continue to be satisfied that all my "extra" money has been going in to CDs since July/August. I thought my ladder would be done moving in to December, but I apparently overestimate how much I save and have more building to do and I don't feel too bad about it, looking at the chaos that results in a continual slide.

Again this would all be fascinating if I didn't have money that didn't feel like a gamble (or ignorant investing) when I first put it in (aside from $1500 in stuff that I knowingly gambled with... and lost).

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed Dec 19, 2018 5:41 pm

Followed by the Powell Plunge:
The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates Wednesday, a widely expected move that President Trump has called “foolish” but that the central bank felt was necessary to keep the U.S. economy thriving. But the Fed also downgraded its economic outlook for 2019, triggering a steep sell-off in markets.
...
Stocks swung dramatically following the Fed news, with all the major indexes tumbling. The Dow fell to a new low for the year. It had been cruising up 300 points for most of the day, but sold off sharply during Powell’s news conference to 504 points in the red, more than a 2 percent loss.
...
The Fed expects unemployment to fall to 3.5 percent next year, even lower than this year, and inflation to remain at a modest 1.9 percent. The Fed typically hikes interest rates to keep inflation in check, but the central bank slightly lowered its inflation forecast for next year, a sign Fed leaders aren’t expecting a major surprise.
...
The Dow and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index are on pace for worst quarter since 2011 and worst year since 2008. The Dow has fallen 10 percent from its September peak, wiping out all gains for the year and setting up the Dow for its worst annual performance since 2008. Other markets, especially high-yield debt, are also showing signs of stress and making it more difficult for companies to borrow money.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Isgrimnur » Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:39 pm

And the shutdown slide:
Trailing on a global rout, U.S. stocks dropped deeper into the red as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s rate increase and its softer outlook for 2019.

They pitched lower on the news that President Trump would not sign the spending bill that would avert a government shutdown. Also lurking are growing concerns about a slowdown in the global economy.

By midafternoon the Dow plummeted more than 650 points, or 2.9 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was down 2.8 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite was off 2.8 percent.
...
Oil prices kept up their steep, three-month decline, with West Texas Intermediate slipping beneath $45 per barrel and Brent Crude down to $55 per barrel. The $50 per barrel is a key threshold for oil because producers find it more difficult to make money below that mark.

“There is full out skepticism now about the ability of Russia and OPEC to sufficiently cut supplies,” said John Kilduff of Again Capital “The problem that occurred last night was Saudi Arabia, despite the promise to cut, said it would still supply Asia. That undercut any credibility about the implementation of the cuts.”

Oil is now down 35 percent from its 52-week high with no sign of letting up. The recent drop come overnight on news that Saudi Arabia is going to make good on its oil contracts to Asia, despite a deal earlier this month between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC Russia to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Isgrimnur » Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:48 am

Followed by the Williams Walkback
U.S. stocks gained Friday after Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said that the central bank could reassess its interest rate policy and balance sheet reduction in the new year if the economy slows.

Williams also said the Fed was listening to the market, and could re-evaluate its outlook for two rate hikes next year.
...
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained more than 200 points following Williams’s comments and as athletic apparel company Nike rallied nearly 9 percent following strong earnings results. The S&P 500 added 0.7 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.1 percent.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis » Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:38 am

I've been telling myself in all of 2018 to cut my 401k contributions but... 2019 raised the max from 18,500 to 19,000 so what did I do? I raised my contribution from 770 semimonthly to 790 semimonthly.

Stupid. "I'm feeding the pig" but I fear the pig is not analogous to my retirement but rather is feeding investment bankers and multinational movers and shakers.

I also just tucked away my Roth IRA for 2019. Not sure where that is going yet. If I were smart I'd put it in CDs but I guess now is not a bad time to be fairly bold with money I shouldn't touch for at least another 11 years... Nope. Dumped in VT, VZ, and GSK...

Also breaking my current rule of no individual securities...

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:46 am

Looks like IRA limits went from $5500 to $6000 as well.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by stessier » Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:51 am

LordMortis wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:38 am
Also breaking my current rule of no individual securities...
In for a penny... ;)
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LordMortis
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis » Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:55 am

Isgrimnur wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:46 am
Looks like IRA limits went from $5500 to $6000 as well.
Sorry, meant to put all that down. :oops: Got side tracked looking at my IRA and then swooshing it away...

Not going to format it cause, time...

No link

401k elective deferral 2018 18,500, 2019 19,000 +$500
Catchup for 50 years 2018 $6,000 2019 $6,000


Qualified IRA 2018 $5,500 2019 $6,000 +$500

And for those who have particularly generous employers

Max limit all sources 2018 $55,000 2019 $56,000 +$1,000
Max limit all sources for 50 years 2018 $61,000 2019 $62,000 +$1,000
stessier wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:51 am
LordMortis wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:38 am
Also breaking my current rule of no individual securities...
In for a penny... ;)
out for another $6,000 that maybe should be set aside for a roof... (Though I begin saving specifically for this January contribution in July)

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