Octopus Overlords

"Expect a long bout of volatility," Bank of America strategists led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a report published on Sunday.
Bank of America keeps a running tally of "signposts" that signal looming bear market. The bad news is that 14 of these 19 indicators, or 74%, have been triggered. Two more were toppled earlier this month: the VIX volatility index (VIX) climbed above 20 and a growing number of Americans expect stocks to go up...

...Some bear market warning lights, mostly concerning market sentiment, have not yet been lit. For instance, Bank of America sees little evidence of the investor "euphoria" that overheats the market. Also, banks have not broadly tightened lending conditions.
The good news is that Bank of America said that previous market tops were preceded by a higher percentage of bear market signposts being triggered. Four of the past seven bull markets peaked with 100% of the indicators being triggered.

Bank of America found that it has taken the S&P 500 21 months on average to peak when a similar percentage of signposts were toppled.
"History says we've got 21 months," the analysts wrote.

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:13 pm -3.93% for XAR (SPDR SERIES TRUST S&P AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF )

And yet my old 401k Vanguard funds are all up on the day. I'm actually up +0.42%.

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:22 pm Tesla went up for me.
Everything else, not so much...

stessier wrote: ↑Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:28 pm CAT - down 6.93%. I was busy today - what happened?

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:24 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:13 pm -3.93% for XAR (SPDR SERIES TRUST S&P AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF )

And yet my old 401k Vanguard funds are all up on the day. I'm actually up +0.42%.

Uhhhmmm, check them tomorrow, for today's results. Sorry!

noxiousdog wrote: ↑Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:31 pm Also, the yield curve inverted.

Rate strategists have long said that being close doesn’t cut it when talking about an inverted yield curve and the well-known economic implications that come with it, namely that the spread between short- and long-term Treasury yields has dropped below zero ahead of each of the past seven recessions.

It’s important to keep in mind the timeline between inversion and economic slowdowns — it’s not instantaneous. The yield curve from three to five years dipped below zero during the last cycle for the first time in August 2005, some 28 months before the recession began.

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:24 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Tue Dec 04, 2018 5:13 pm -3.93% for XAR (SPDR SERIES TRUST S&P AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF )

And yet my old 401k Vanguard funds are all up on the day. I'm actually up +0.42%.

Uhhhmmm, check them tomorrow, for today's results. Sorry!

The world's largest futures exchange, CME Group, had to repeatedly halt trading in US stock futures for brief periods this morning because of violent price moves, in an unusual intervention that has stunned traders.

It was during this opening in trade that CME Group intervened to manage the volatile trading activity, putting a stop to algorithms closing orders.

The price action caused several CME "Velocity Logic" events, which are triggers to halt futures trading when price movements move too far, or too fast in a given direction.

pr0ner wrote: ↑Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:16 am Considering the Dow is down another 420 points as of this posting, I can see why that might have happened.

pr0ner wrote:Looks like we get to thank Theresa May for today's market fall. Oy.

Zaxxon wrote: ↑Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:11 pm

pr0ner wrote:Looks like we get to thank Theresa May for today's market fall. Oy.

No, Donald Trump tells me that Donald Trump is responsible for all market changes.

pr0ner wrote: ↑Mon Dec 10, 2018 12:49 pm Looks like we get to thank Theresa May for today's market fall. Oy.

The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates Wednesday, a widely expected move that President Trump has called “foolish” but that the central bank felt was necessary to keep the U.S. economy thriving. But the Fed also downgraded its economic outlook for 2019, triggering a steep sell-off in markets.
...
Stocks swung dramatically following the Fed news, with all the major indexes tumbling. The Dow fell to a new low for the year. It had been cruising up 300 points for most of the day, but sold off sharply during Powell’s news conference to 504 points in the red, more than a 2 percent loss.
...
The Fed expects unemployment to fall to 3.5 percent next year, even lower than this year, and inflation to remain at a modest 1.9 percent. The Fed typically hikes interest rates to keep inflation in check, but the central bank slightly lowered its inflation forecast for next year, a sign Fed leaders aren’t expecting a major surprise.
...
The Dow and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index are on pace for worst quarter since 2011 and worst year since 2008. The Dow has fallen 10 percent from its September peak, wiping out all gains for the year and setting up the Dow for its worst annual performance since 2008. Other markets, especially high-yield debt, are also showing signs of stress and making it more difficult for companies to borrow money.

Trailing on a global rout, U.S. stocks dropped deeper into the red as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s rate increase and its softer outlook for 2019.

They pitched lower on the news that President Trump would not sign the spending bill that would avert a government shutdown. Also lurking are growing concerns about a slowdown in the global economy.

By midafternoon the Dow plummeted more than 650 points, or 2.9 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was down 2.8 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite was off 2.8 percent.
...
Oil prices kept up their steep, three-month decline, with West Texas Intermediate slipping beneath $45 per barrel and Brent Crude down to $55 per barrel. The $50 per barrel is a key threshold for oil because producers find it more difficult to make money below that mark.

“There is full out skepticism now about the ability of Russia and OPEC to sufficiently cut supplies,” said John Kilduff of Again Capital “The problem that occurred last night was Saudi Arabia, despite the promise to cut, said it would still supply Asia. That undercut any credibility about the implementation of the cuts.”

Oil is now down 35 percent from its 52-week high with no sign of letting up. The recent drop come overnight on news that Saudi Arabia is going to make good on its oil contracts to Asia, despite a deal earlier this month between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC Russia to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day.

U.S. stocks gained Friday after Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said that the central bank could reassess its interest rate policy and balance sheet reduction in the new year if the economy slows.

Williams also said the Fed was listening to the market, and could re-evaluate its outlook for two rate hikes next year.
...
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained more than 200 points following Williams’s comments and as athletic apparel company Nike rallied nearly 9 percent following strong earnings results. The S&P 500 added 0.7 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.1 percent.

LordMortis wrote: ↑Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:38 am Also breaking my current rule of no individual securities...

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:46 am Looks like IRA limits went from $5500 to $6000 as well.

stessier wrote: ↑Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:51 am

LordMortis wrote: ↑Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:38 am Also breaking my current rule of no individual securities...

In for a penny...