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Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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LordMortis
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis » Thu Jun 27, 2019 4:52 pm

noxiousdog wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 2:47 pm
How many Tesla's would they have to sell per year to be worth $200 share? If you can't answer that, you shouldn't buy it.
I think I learned the answer today. I think I can understand how Tesla can essentially lose money selling cars but reach profitable probably for ten years coming while they continue to grow. Someone talk me off the cliff. Beginning next year that could be as low as a couple hundred thousand cars in Europe annually.


https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/tra ... roposal_en

https://www.dieselnet.com/standards/eu/ghg.php

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-s ... ser-2019-6

Tesla can literally sell 100% of emissions credits and the heavier the car, the more credit they can sell. And unlike ICE vehicles weight is not the primary savings for energy in an EV as weight energy is largely reclaimed when a vehicle is told to slow.

This could be billions of revenue a year. Zax tell me this is already built in to the price and they're losing $5 a share while they release more stock and take on more bonds. ND, tell me (and show me) I'm off base and ignorant. Please.

Incentive mechanism for zero- and low-emission vehicles (ZLEV)

A ZLEV is defined in the Regulation as a passenger car or a van with CO2 emissions between 0 and 50 g/km.

To incentivise the uptake of ZLEV, a crediting system is introduced from 2025 on.

The specific CO2 emission target of a manufacturer will be relaxed if its share of ZLEV registered in a given year exceeds the following benchmarks:

Cars: 15% ZLEV from 2025 on and 35% ZLEV from 2030 on
Vans: 15% ZLEV from 2025 on and 30% ZLEV from 2030 on

A one percentage point exceedance of the ZLEV benchmark will increase the manufacturer’s CO2 target (in g CO2/km) by one percent. The target relaxation is capped at maximum 5% to safeguard the environmental integrity of the Regulation.

For calculating the ZLEV share in a manufacturer’s fleet, an accounting rule applies. This gives a greater weight to ZLEV with lower CO2 emissions.

In addition, for cars only, during the period 2025 to 2030, a greater weight is given to ZLEV registered in Member States with a low ZLEV uptake in 2017, and this as long as the ZLEV share in the Member State’s fleet of newly registered cars does not exceed 5%.
Pooling, exemptions and derogations

The provisions on pooling between manufacturers are the same as under the current Regulations. Pooling between car and van manufacturers is not possible.

The exemption possibility for manufacturers registering less than 1,000 cars or vans per year, as well as the derogation possibility for “small volume” car and van manufacturers, has also been maintained.

The derogation possibility for “niche” car manufacturers, i.e. those registering between 10,000 and 300,000 cars per year, will end after the year 2028. In the years 2025 to 2028, the derogation target for those manufacturers will be 15% below the 2021 derogation target.
Flexibilities. Certain flexibilities are available for manufacturers, as follows:

Pooling—Several manufacturers may form a pool to jointly meet their CO2 emission targets.
Low volume manufacturers—Manufacturers with fewer than 10,000 new cars registered per annum may apply to the European Commission for a derogation from the specific emission targets. Several conditions apply.
Eco-innovation—Manufacturers may apply for credits for innovative CO2 reducing technologies which are not accounted for in the current test cycle—for example, energy efficient lights. The total contribution of eco-innovation credits is limited to 7 g CO2/km in each manufacturers average specific target.

Excess Emissions Premium. Manufacturers who miss their average CO2 targets are subject to penalties:

From 2012 to 2018, the penalties are €5 per vehicle for the first g/km of CO2; €15 for the second gram; €25 for the third gram; €95 from the fourth gram onwards.
From 2019, manufacturers pay €95 for each g/km exceeding the target.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog » Thu Jun 27, 2019 5:03 pm

Well, it's taken them 7 years to make 1.7 billion in credits. That doesn't sound that impressive.

It's a nice offset that helps legitimize a higher profit margin than traditional automakers, but you still have to know how much profit they get on each vehicle and then multiply it accordingly. It doesn't really change the original question.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis » Thu Jun 27, 2019 5:46 pm

noxiousdog wrote:
Thu Jun 27, 2019 5:03 pm
Well, it's taken them 7 years to make 1.7 billion in credits. That doesn't sound that impressive.

It's a nice offset that helps legitimize a higher profit margin than traditional automakers, but you still have to know how much profit they get on each vehicle and then multiply it accordingly. It doesn't really change the original question.
That's the thing. I can't see how they are making any money on each vehicle. But if Fiat isn't going anywhere for the next ten years and Tesla builds a presence. It's not about what they've paid in the last 7 years. It's about what will be paid in the next 10 years.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/04/te ... -chrysler/
Over the weekend, the Financial Times reported that Tesla and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) have entered into an agreement that will deliver Tesla a fresh influx of cash and deliver FCA from the hands of Europe's tough new emissions regulations. Beginning next year, new European Commission rules begin to phase in that require a car maker's fleet-wide emissions to average no higher than 95g/CO2/km—a figure that works out at roughly 57mpg for gasoline vehicles, or 76mpg for diesel-powered vehicles.

From 2020, 95 percent of an automaker's new cars sold in the EU have to meet this target, with the remaining 5 percent falling under the law in 2021. And the penalties for failing are draconian: a €95 ($107) "excess emissions premium" per gram of CO2 over the target, for every single car registered in the EU that year. For some OEMs, this has the potential to be ruinous; if FCA's portfolio were the same in 2021 as it was in 2018, the automaker would have to pay some €2.77 billion ($3.12 billion), out of total net global profits of €3.63 billion ($4.1 billion).
But please talking. I need to come to my senses.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni » Thu Jun 27, 2019 8:08 pm

Fortune favors the bold. So does ruination.


If there's going to get rich on emission offsets in the next 10 years, you have at least 1 or 2 to see how they do. And to see how other automakers fare.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog » Fri Jun 28, 2019 10:15 am

LordMortis wrote:
Thu Jun 27, 2019 5:46 pm
But please talking. I need to come to my senses.
Although the exact financial terms of the deal are unknown, the FT says the agreement is in the range of "hundreds of millions of euros." Interestingly, the FT also reports that Tesla had extended the offer to other OEMs to join this emissions pool but that none had accepted by the March 25th deadline.
So, hundreds of millions of euros and nobody else is interested.

I'm also guessing that that hundreds of millions of euros is a multi-year agreement.
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"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni » Fri Jun 28, 2019 10:29 am

Am awful lot of that income is dependent on fickle European governments and presumably the destruction of many of their own existing automakers.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by malchior » Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:27 am

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2019 10:29 am
Am awful lot of that income is dependent on fickle European governments and presumably the destruction of many of their own existing automakers.
Agree on the 2nd half but I think they'll lean in on the credits. They've been pretty forward thinking about using credits to develop incentives to move the carbon/green mix inside the EU markets. That is how they got ahead on the energy production side and I expect they'll also work the consumption side pretty hard especially as actual impacts on the climate front get worse for them.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Zaxxon » Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:17 am

LordMortis wrote:
Thu Jun 27, 2019 4:52 pm
Zax tell me this
I think everyone here knows my thoughts on Tesla. In any event, I'm comfortable gushing in the Tesla thread, but not in the investment thread. I have a pretty high tolerance for risk in my TSLA investment, and I would not want anyone to make that jump based on my advice. I'll recommend the cars highly, but not the stock.

If you're interested in someone else's long-winded diatribe on TSLA, though, I did come across this manifesto over the weekend. This dude largely lays out the bull case in a fairly coherent way. I will say that his higher-end estimates are ridiculous even in my view, he's more defensive of Musk in the 'pedo guy' incident than I am, and that he has a serious case of it's-vs-its confusion that boils my blood. But if you take the 30 minutes to read it, you'll get an idea of the general reasoning behind those who are still in the stock.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Isgrimnur » Fri Jul 05, 2019 1:54 pm

CNBC
Stocks fell on Friday after the release of stronger jobs data dampened hope for easier Federal Reserve monetary policy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average pulled back 41 points, while the S&P 500 lost 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite also slipped 0.2% as semiconductor stocks fell broadly.
...
Investors were betting heavily on the Fed cutting rates later this month heading into Friday’s session. CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed expectations for a rate cut in July were at 100%. Last month, the Fed said it would “act as appropriate” to maintain the current U.S. economic expansion, which is the longest in history.

But Friday’s jobs report tempered expectations for aggressive monetary policy. Market expectations for a 50 basis-point rate cut fell to just 9% from 29%, CME’s FedWatch tool showed. Expectations for a cut of 25 basis points, however, rose to 91% from 70.8%.
Silver - 1k

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni » Fri Jul 05, 2019 2:52 pm

41 points on the Dow isn't a pulback. That's flat.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:23 am

Zaxxon wrote:
Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:17 am
LordMortis wrote:
Thu Jun 27, 2019 4:52 pm
Zax tell me this
I think everyone here knows my thoughts on Tesla. In any event, I'm comfortable gushing in the Tesla thread, but not in the investment thread. I have a pretty high tolerance for risk in my TSLA investment, and I would not want anyone to make that jump based on my advice. I'll recommend the cars highly, but not the stock.

If you're interested in someone else's long-winded diatribe on TSLA, though, I did come across this manifesto over the weekend. This dude largely lays out the bull case in a fairly coherent way. I will say that his higher-end estimates are ridiculous even in my view, he's more defensive of Musk in the 'pedo guy' incident than I am, and that he has a serious case of it's-vs-its confusion that boils my blood. But if you take the 30 minutes to read it, you'll get an idea of the general reasoning behind those who are still in the stock.
I admire his efforts, but it doesn't pass the smell test. Analysts estimate 19.66/share of profit in 2022 for 3.4 billion as a total number with current shares outstanding. That guy is predicting 16.2 billion. Analysts have overestimated earnings predictions in 10 of the last 15 quarters.

The value of Tesla is going to boil down to can they sell enough cars at a high profit margin to justify the stock price. The idea of a $35,000 model 3 has already gone by the wayside. It's worked for Apple. I'll be interested if the car market can have a similar model. You could argue that as a singular purchase (and look how many premium SUVs and trucks are sold) people are more willing to buy a premium vehicle than a premium phone.
My continuing adventures of learning to play piano. - Now Playing Moonlight Sonata

Amazon Kindle Book Loaning Thread

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog

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