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Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Daehawk wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:23 am
My sister told me today on the phone that my niece lost $37,000 in investments in one day...yesterday. Thats her entire retirement.
She went from $37K to zero yesterday (Wed)? Trying to think what investment that could be.

Indexes were down around 6% IIRC. There were some much bigger losers but you'd have to have everything in the single worst investment to get to zero.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Daehawk »

Id guess that yesterday is anywhere from today to 3 days back.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Daehawk »

Alefroth wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:46 am
Daehawk wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:23 am
My sister told me today on the phone that my niece lost $37,000 in investments in one day...yesterday. Thats her entire retirement.
Is your niece retiring soon?
Not that I know of. She is 10 years younger than me I think.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Alefroth wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:46 am
Daehawk wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:23 am
My sister told me today on the phone that my niece lost $37,000 in investments in one day...yesterday. Thats her entire retirement.
Is your niece retiring soon?
"Not anymore." That's what all the 60+s are saying.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by malchior »

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:55 am
Daehawk wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:23 am
My sister told me today on the phone that my niece lost $37,000 in investments in one day...yesterday. Thats her entire retirement.
She went from $37K to zero yesterday (Wed)? Trying to think what investment that could be.

Indexes were down around 6% IIRC. There were some much bigger losers but you'd have to have everything in the single worst investment to get to zero.
Yeah this doesn't make a lick of sense to me unless it was in pink sheets or something crazy.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by xwraith »

So, any thoughts if we're nearing the bottom yet? It seems it would just take another bit of negative news of some sort to drop it another 10%...

At any rate looking around for (future) deals and looked at a high yield corporate bond ETF (USHY) and noticed it's yielding a little over 7%. However doing a little back of the envelope calculation (as it seems that yields are trending downwards over time) it may be more realistic yield more like 6.5%.

Seems tempting, but if the ETF drops more you'll get more yield, and there is definitely risk for default at this point.

VPU which I added to my portfolio as a kind of hedge has also been really been knocked down after hitting 52 week highs just before all of this. Not sure if utilities would recover faster then other things, but I always had a sense that they were more "stable" in a bear market.

Anything you guys looking at?
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by stessier »

This is interesting.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

I'm just watching. Making a few buys in what I consider top names or best in sector. Only a few thousand dollars a pop and keeping most of my cash.

I'm ok missing the absolute bottom.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:54 am
I'm just watching. Making a few buys in what I consider top names or best in sector. Only a few thousand dollars a pop and keeping most of my cash.

I'm ok missing the absolute bottom.
I was doing a few hundred a pop but now I am at on again/off again furlough, so no more. While I am not paycheck to paycheck. If this lasts in to May, and I have a single disaster in my life, I could very well move in to paycheck to paycheck territory. I would like to put in more, but shit got real and it's no longer about preparing for retirement. It's preparing for recovery. So I'm burned and burned and burned again. But there are a shitton of people who have it way worse than me so I'm hunkered down and still thankful for everything I have been blessed to have, even as I watch years worth of work devalued, knowing that a massive bailout in every sector will be necessary which will then devalue the dollar, further devaluing everything I have saved/invested. That outside hope for retirement at 52/53 is not only off the table, it's shattered in pieces on the floor. Current trajectory is now 57 but who knows how bad it will get and how long it will take to get better.

Good on all y'all pulled everything. I knew this was serious but my crystal ball refused to show it would get to where we are without collective hysteria or malfeasance.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

I didn't pull everything. I pulled most of my "amateur" money. The professionally managed money (current 401K) I left to the professionals. Now I'm once again going to have to climb out on the back of my amateur money.

My old man was more risk averse the last few years and pulled mostly everything. He's in decent shape but then he has to be because he's already retired. He lived through 2008 at the mercy of the pros and that's when he had me take over the day to day under his general direction.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Mon Nov 25, 2019 6:02 pm
I was reviewing transactions in one of my fire-and-forget IRAs. I had some Celgene apparently and they were bought by Bristol-Meyers Squibb.

Last week for each share of Celgene I got $50 on cash, 1 Share of BMY (about $56/share) and a "contingent value right" (CVR) that was worth around $2.13. CELG was around $108 so no surprise in the total value.


What intrigues me are the CVRs. They are traded under BMY.RT (on AMTD, anyway). They way I understand it, if 3 specific Celgene pipiline drugs get regulatory approval by 2021, the CVRs convert to $9 in cash (or maybe $9 of BMY shares, not 100% sure). If all 3 drugs aren't approved, the BMY.RT are worth $0. They are like options on FDA approval.

Who knew?
Bought a lot of BMYr between $2.10 and $2.30 after the tender.

BMYr is up 23% today on news that the third drug (ide-cel for multiple myeloma) was filed with the FDA which puts it on track to be approved, if it is approved, by the 3/31/2021 deadline. Good for around a 2% pop in BMY too.

One drug has been approved (Zeposia for MS) and one has an 8/17/2020 decision date (liso-cel for lymphoma). Currently at $3.90. My exit target is in the $6.5-8 range, expecting to have to make a call if liso-cel gets approval in August.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Montag »

Bought MO at $33.73 and $32.23 for my wife's Roth last year and this year. At the low, the dividend yield was 10.5% It's now at $38.59. Somehow it does not make up for my current loss on the 401k S&P Index funds.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

Kraken wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:48 am
You all laughed at my Roth CDs while you were making the phat bucks. Who's laughing now? When interest rates briefly spiked last year, I locked in up to 3% for up to five years. My Roth is only about 15% of our retirement money, so I'm as ruined as everybody else, but I'm feeling smug about having at least some safe savings right now.
Who laughed. I was trying to get more money in, only in two year increments. I was visibly annoyed when rates fell to 2.5 then 2 then less than 2 then 1ish. I've been tracking and building CDs for about 18 months and only wish I had the sense and ability to build out five years instead of two years.

I'm watching my retirement get extended further and further out but better now than in two years from now when I would have been really planning for a retirement barring the "recession" we all knew was coming. Though in two years time, I would have been actively searching for ways to divest myself from the whims of the stock market while trying to nail down what my minimum income to survive without work really is.

Now I'm working at 50% wage, which means "work one month, get two months closer to retirement" is now "work one month get one month closer to retirement minus the money that is "slowly" being drained out of equities."

Also in one of these threads LB mentioned BA. I bought 1 share at about $100. I sold it today at about $150.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Kraken »

LordMortis wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:32 pm
Kraken wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:48 am
You all laughed at my Roth CDs while you were making the phat bucks. Who's laughing now? When interest rates briefly spiked last year, I locked in up to 3% for up to five years. My Roth is only about 15% of our retirement money, so I'm as ruined as everybody else, but I'm feeling smug about having at least some safe savings right now.
Who laughed. I was trying to get more money in, only in two year increments. I was visibly annoyed when rates fell to 2.5 then 2 then less than 2 then 1ish. I've been tracking and building CDs for about 18 months and only wish I had the sense and ability to build out five years instead of two years.
Everybody did. Silently. Behind my back. But I knew. :wink:

I've always regarded my Roth as a savings account and kept it in CDs. It doesn't gain much, but it never goes down. That looks foolish when the markets are setting record highs and feels comforting when they crash. I know stock funds do better over the long haul, and that's where most of our money is (was).

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Kraken wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:57 pm
LordMortis wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:32 pm
Kraken wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:48 am
You all laughed at my Roth CDs while you were making the phat bucks. Who's laughing now? When interest rates briefly spiked last year, I locked in up to 3% for up to five years. My Roth is only about 15% of our retirement money, so I'm as ruined as everybody else, but I'm feeling smug about having at least some safe savings right now.
Who laughed. I was trying to get more money in, only in two year increments. I was visibly annoyed when rates fell to 2.5 then 2 then less than 2 then 1ish. I've been tracking and building CDs for about 18 months and only wish I had the sense and ability to build out five years instead of two years.
Everybody did. Silently. Behind my back. But I knew. :wink:

I've always regarded my Roth as a savings account and kept it in CDs. It doesn't gain much, but it never goes down. That looks foolish when the markets are setting record highs and feels comforting when they crash. I know stock funds do better over the long haul, and that's where most of our money is (was).
Except a Roth is tax free. IMO, ideally your most aggressive investments wold be in a Roth in the event that they appreciate and as a bonus there are no mandatory distributions. While your more predictable investments would be in a non-pre-tax account. Obviously the Roth limits mean not all your investments would make it in there but generally isn't that the conventional wisdom?
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

And we officially have the most bestest, winningest Q1 in Dow history! Trump 2020!

...

Oh, wait, sorry; had that backwards. It was the worst Q1 evah. MAGA?

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Zaxxon wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:23 pm
And we officially have the most bestest, winningest Q1 in Dow history! Trump 2020!

...

Oh, wait, sorry; had that backwards. It was the worst Q1 evah. MAGA?
Worst ever is same as the best worst. So in short, the best.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Montag »

So with the market tanked, does it make sense to switch new 401k contributions to Roth 401k?
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Montag wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:52 am
So with the market tanked, does it make sense to switch new 401k contributions to Roth 401k?
Depends on whether your get an employer match and your current allocation and goals, really. There isn't one answer for everyone.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by xwraith »

Yikes, looked at some bonds for Kohl's and it traded at 11% effective yield yesterday.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

xwraith wrote:
Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:13 am
Yikes, looked at some bonds for Kohl's and it traded at 11% effective yield yesterday.
BBB-.
Fitch anticipates a sharp increase in Kohl's leverage to over 6x in 2020 from 2.3x in 2019, based on EBITDA declining to approximately $550 million from $2 billion on a sales decline of 20% to under $16 billion. Adjusted leverage is expected to be in the mid 3x in 2021, assuming revenue declines of around 15% and EBITDA declines of around 40% in 2021 from 2019 levels. Leverage could return to 3x in 2022 assuming a sustained topline recovery.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by xwraith »

Thanks for the link! Interesting how they rank Nordstrom's strength as higher -- mostly around their modeling of sales losses (10% vs 15%) I think as otherwise Kohl's has more cash flow.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

This is funny:
April 8, 2020 at 8:13 p.m. ET
Saudi Arabia's sovereign-wealth fund has amassed stakes worth roughly $1 billion in four major European oil companies, according to people familiar with the matter, buying assets it perceives as undervalued in a market depressed by the coronavirus pandemic and low oil prices.
Think they might cut supply now? :lol:
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Pyperkub »

LawBeefaroni wrote:This is funny:
April 8, 2020 at 8:13 p.m. ET
Saudi Arabia's sovereign-wealth fund has amassed stakes worth roughly $1 billion in four major European oil companies, according to people familiar with the matter, buying assets it perceives as undervalued in a market depressed by the coronavirus pandemic and low oil prices.
Think they might cut supply now? Image
I'm glad I dumped most of our exxon last year at around 90. It dropped into the 30's and is now in the 40's. Still have some other oil /gas interests, but I won't know how badly they got hit until later this month (not public). Hoping that natural gas stayed OK, as the raise I was in line for is off the table for probably the rest of the year at least.

On the good news side, at least I'm still employed, and full time for now.

INO hasn't paid off like I thought it might yet, mostly because of the shareholder lawsuit announced later the day I bought it (I think). Sounds like they are one of the companies the Bill Gates efforts will flow to however. Patience grasshopper.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

I was back up to 4 shares of Tesla. One of them sold at $750 this morning. On FIFO that was a share I bought at $741 on the way down. My next one would go at $800, which I would have paid $64??? on the way down. My last two shares would have been purchased on Covid Panic discount. Something sub $500. All still more than I think Tesla is worth but I'm in the black, so... We'll talk about going down to one if tesla tops $850 again.

I'm sad I didn't have more money to buy/sell but when work changes the income game then buy and hold or buy and play pretty much comes to a stop while I build my cash and worry about my income becoming paycheck to paycheck or worse.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

My initial learning about options comes to fruition tomorrow. Wherein I discovered that "weeklys" were why my 2 F options for $5 weren't bought when F was well above $5. I'm OK with that. I'll sell my two options again tomorrow, assuming F doesn't stay above $5 today and my options get exercised. I'm still not sure how it will all pan out. But I consider it win whichever way the wind blows. As usual, wishing I had more to throw around.

I am not excercizing my option for 1 F at $7 which I put in very early March, I think, whenever F dipped below $6.50 the first time. So that saved me from Ford hurting me more.

I have more decisions to make. I've been putting away money in to CDs every month for getting on three years now, I think. It's time to up my next 2 year CD and I am afraid of COVID will is already doing to my paycheck and yet I don't want to sell any securities, either the bargains I bought or the losses I'm enduring to fund that CD. Money in my savings can cover the purchase but this is not a sustainable model where my employment currently is and who knows where employment will be by June if May doesn't look more rosy.

And still, I'm thankful for where I'm at both in savings and partial employment and for how the downs I'm enduring that could be much worse.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Edit: nevermind below, LM, misread your post. Yeah, weeklies are thinly traded compared to monthlies. But I'd think F weeklies would still be liquid enough.

Usually when there is a large bid/ask spread it's a sign you'll be giving up a premium.

Always check open interest and daily volume.

[Nevermind]
The reason options aren't usually exercised when a stock touches above the strike is because in most cases the holder of the calls doesn't want the stock. They want the money. So they'll sell the options rather than exercising them. The person who bought it from them is usually the same. Whoever is holding the option at expiration is the one who usually exercises.

Also, keep on mind that if someone paid $0.50 for a $5 call and the stock is at $5.20 on expiration, they'll end up paying $5.50 (plus fees) for a $5.20 stock. Times 100. So even if the call is in the money there is a chance it doesn't get exercised. Very low chance because they'll most likely just sell it at market to recover something and whoever buys will exercise. But still a chance.


I wrote some May covered calls in SDC last week. $5 when it was around $4.11. It is now like $5.90 and they haven't been exercised. Don't expect them to be either, until much closer to May expiration.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Isgrimnur »

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:38 pm
Also, keep on mind that if someone paid $0.50 for a $5 call and the stock is at $5.20 on expiration, they'll end up paying $5.50 (plus fees) for a $5.20 stock. Times 100. So even if the call is in the money there is a chance it doesn't get exercised. Very low chance because they'll most likely just sell it at market to recover something and whoever buys will exercise. But still a chance.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:38 pm
I wrote some May covered calls in SDC last week.
That's all a (long) way off for me yet. Buying and not exercising one call coming from before Stay at Home and Buying two lots of Ford at the trough so I could learn how to sell options is enough for me for now. As example I didn't know there was a difference between weeklys and monthlys. I would prefer to make any costly "oops. I didn't know that" with less than a $1000 at potential payment for my mistake.

At the moment, I don't intend to play hot potato with any options. I buy what I can warrant (which isn't much when you have to play with 100 shares at a time) knowing that I'd be comfortable keeping at the price I paid or selling at the price I set.

I like the idea of buying an option volatility and the unknown, knowing the worst I can do is be out $35 (like on the $7 For option I bought and will expire tomorrow) but if I buy an option it will be because I am comfortable with paying for 100 shares and that's a big limit for me where every $1 = $100 and you don't see too many stock trading in the $4 range and that was as comfortable as I could be even before stay at home.

But I'm learning and I'm hitting a small opportunity here and there through all of this, even without the broad knowledge of so many sectors you guys bring to the table.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

I've also been selling some calls lately to take advantage mostly of TSLA's crazy option pricing. June contracts > $500 out of the money going for four digits. Sheesh.

Weekly vs monthly just refers to whether the expiry you're looking at is the 'main' one for a month or an off-week. The weeklies will have less open interest and lower liquidity than the monthlies.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

covered calls
I now know that this means you own the the shares you selling calls for.

So covered calls is actually all I do for the moment.

Michigan announced stay at home has officially moved May 14th and with my two F covered calls expiring today. I put in two more for $5 for May 15 at $.34. Boy, to know I could have been making these leaps with F stock before it went down so much over the last six years. I'm loath to put old money on the table because if I blip sends the stock up temporary my long term losses get realized and I'm left stock but two units of new money at around $4 a share is just right for this game.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

LordMortis wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:26 pm
with my two F covered calls expiring today. I put in two more for $5 for May 15 at $.34.
I am thinking I am missing something in your comment, ie that you mention the ones expiring today as an aside rather than a prereq for the 2nd two being sold today as, well, they haven't expired yet. And won't until well after market close. When selling covered calls so close to the strike price, you never want to have any chance that something crazy happens (including in after-hours today) and you're called to hand over more shares than you own, as that's where the unlimited exposure piece of options writing comes in.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

Zaxxon wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:46 pm
LordMortis wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:26 pm
with my two F covered calls expiring today. I put in two more for $5 for May 15 at $.34.
I am thinking I am missing something in your comment, ie that you mention the ones expiring today as an aside rather than a prereq for the 2nd two being sold today as, well, they haven't expired yet. And won't until well after market close. When selling covered calls so close to the strike price, you never want to have any chance that something crazy happens (including in after-hours today) and you're called to hand over more shares than you own, as that's where the unlimited exposure piece of options writing comes in.
In March I bought 200 shares for F for I dunno, 4.25 a share, something. I instantly sold calls on them for $5 for, again I don't remember, at $.24. Those calls are due at close today. I think F isn't going to hit $5, so I sold calls on another 200 shares for May 15h for $5 at $.34.

I own more than 400 shares. I bought in 2014 and then bought some more on the way down when F was still doing extra annual dividends and then DRIPed even more shares until about the time F fell to $12. I still believe F is worth money. I don't plan to sell. I have always been of the buy and accumulate since joining investing and this thread. My risk right now is making a two hundred bucks if F shoots above $5 a share by the time the call expires and losing those 200 shares I bought last month... and having another 200 shares get sold for way less than I paid from years ago. This all comes with a side of FIFO losses being realized (against the short term gains I realized from buying and selling TSLA and KR. That's all voodoo to me until tax time 2021)

Also I explicitly did not open a margin account with my broker. I will not leverage things I don't have.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

LordMortis wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:54 pm
I own more than 400 shares.
Figured as much, but cool. Carry on, I figured I was just missing that part.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by gbasden »

Hey all. I'm hoping for a little advice. I've been dealing with my parents estate and my sister and I have about $500,000 sitting in a money market fund while we deal with the parts that required probate. (It's great when your parents create a trust, bad when they forget to put certain things into the trust.) It's great that it was in a money market, because it wasn't affected when the stock market cratered. Now my broker is suggesting that we invest on the down market. If it was back at 18k I'd probably be in favor, but it seems like it's overpriced still today with the uncertainty of the next 18 months.

What do you all think? He's proposing about 30% bonds and 70% blue chip indexes, including SPY.

Thanks!

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

gbasden wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:25 pm
Hey all. I'm hoping for a little advice. I've been dealing with my parents estate and my sister and I have about $500,000 sitting in a money market fund while we deal with the parts that required probate. (It's great when your parents create a trust, bad when they forget to put certain things into the trust.) It's great that it was in a money market, because it wasn't affected when the stock market cratered. Now my broker is suggesting that we invest on the down market. If it was back at 18k I'd probably be in favor, but it seems like it's overpriced still today with the uncertainty of the next 18 months.

What do you all think? He's proposing about 30% bonds and 70% blue chip indexes, including SPY.

Thanks!
Don't do bonds. Way too much risk for no return. If you want fixed income, I recommend REITS. Especially apartment.

In these situations, I'd invest over a period of time. either 20% five times or 10% ten times. Do that over a period of 12 to 24 months. Or speed up the process if you feel more comfortable.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

If he's telling you 70/30 (100%), that sounds a bit too cookie cutter and frankly, in this market, crazy.

Even if your time horizon is very long term, you want to ease back in. Agree with ND that you want to invest in chunks over time. Also think you need more diversification than just bonds and blue chip stock indexes.

What exactly that is depends on your goals but I'd recommend a second [professional] opinion.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

From the look of this morning TSLA might break the 800 plane again. If it does, I go down a share.

Edit: and by the time I come here, post and look again it sheds $10 off its peak. What a crazy stock.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

LordMortis wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:01 am
From the look of this morning TSLA might break the 800 plane again. If it does, I go down a share.

Edit: and by the time I come here, post and look again it sheds $10 off its peak. What a crazy stock.
It has certainly been interesting to watch TSLA's recovery while GM and F are nuking dividends and hunkering down. I mean, this is the eventuality that I'm invested in, but the pandemic seems to have accelerated things for the traditional autos. Tesla is uniquely suited to do OK in such circumstances relative to traditional automakers (contactless test drives and sales, continual OTA improvements even now, just raised enough cash to carry on for quite awhile, etc). Now, in addition to the already-existential threat the traditionals faced of killing the golden goose while electrifying, they now need to do it with sales in the shitter and amid a global pandemic that's likely to be with us for awhile.

My June call sale isn't looking too great right now, but such is TSLA. Long way to rise before it's in the money, and that's certainly a first-world problem to have.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

Zaxxon wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:23 am
LordMortis wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:01 am
From the look of this morning TSLA might break the 800 plane again. If it does, I go down a share.

Edit: and by the time I come here, post and look again it sheds $10 off its peak. What a crazy stock.
It has certainly been interesting to watch TSLA's recovery while GM and F are nuking dividends and hunkering down. I mean, this is the eventuality that I'm invested in, but the pandemic seems to have accelerated things for the traditional autos. Tesla is uniquely suited to do OK in such circumstances relative to traditional automakers (contactless test drives and sales, continual OTA improvements even now, just raised enough cash to carry on for quite awhile, etc). Now, in addition to the already-existential threat the traditionals faced of killing the golden goose while electrifying, they now need to do it with sales in the shitter and amid a global pandemic that's likely to be with us for awhile.

My June call sale isn't looking too great right now, but such is TSLA. Long way to rise before it's in the money, and that's certainly a first-world problem to have.
TD Ameritrade news suggests its because TSLA manufacturing is in CA, where COVID outbreak has been lighter and the plant plans to open presently

snip
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) shares jumped nearly 9% on Monday on the heels of a report saying the Silicon Valley car maker has told some workers at its main factory in California to prepare to return to work by next week, before a regional stay-at-home order is lifted. According to a Bloomberg report over the weekend, which cited messages seen by the publication, supervisors told some workers in the paint and stamping lines report to the facility in Fremont on Wednesday and asked the workers to signal their availability. A shelter-in-place order for the San Francisco Bay Area is scheduled to be lifted on May 4. Tesla and local officials last month tussled over whether the factory, Tesla's only U.S. car-making plant, was an essential business, with Tesla resisting calls to shut it down, which it finally did in late March. Shares of Tesla have gained 236% in the past 12 months, contrasting with losses around 3% for the S&P 500 index.

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