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Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

I sold all my Amazon a week ago. I was an early naysayer but finally capitulated a few years ago (around $950). It was a great run and I think it still has a lot of room but I'm starting to exit from the high flyers. Sold some Google too.

Sold over 25% of my OSTK today. Booked profit even if the remaining shares go to zero.


(Of course I'm sure I still hold some AMZN in many various funds, just not in my trading accounts anymore)
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

I sold all but 6 shares. No idea why I held on to those, really. Given my sell argument, it doesn't really make sense (except the "too high a % of my portfolio") I suspect we'll see $3500/$3600 before too long, and I will likely sell the rest there.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by pr0ner »

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 3:05 pm
(Of course I'm sure I still hold some AMZN in many various funds, just not in my trading accounts anymore)
The mutual fund that I have the most shares of is 13.16% invested in AMZN. Even though I own 0 shares myself, I feel like this is pretty decent exposure, as the fund's YTD return is currently 38.13%.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Part 2 from my lengthy previous post:

Some macro market talk, since someone mentioned about a month ago up-thread that they had a feeling the market as a whole is super overvalued currently. It certainly does seem to be a bit decoupled from the reality of recession/pandemic/unemployment, and what macro effect the two big stimulus checks (if the second one happens, which I am assuming it will) and $600/wk unemployment checks for millions will have on the medium term US economy.

Strange how the market seems to be ignoring the financial "hell to pay" heading our way in the next 6-12 months, no? Is the blow so big and overwhelming, like sometimes happens with trauma, the patient/victim seems totally oblivious to it? Are analysts and mega funds lightly tiptoeing around the chairs pretending the music hasn't stopped, and hoping no one notices they are tiptoeing? :D

Food for thought, would love to hear your thoughts on that idea.

I'm currently pretty big into cannabis companies, btw, one Canadian (APHA - Aphria) and one US (CURLF - Curaleaf). Curaleaf has already far exceeded expectations, Aphria not so much since I bought right before most recent earnings report (after which it abruptly tanked) I think it's 'the next big thing' in terms of a small industry that will be super big in the next 5 years out.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

Wow. I assumed there would be instant collective reaction to college sports domino. The masses of earnings reports were as expected and that drawback starts here. Nope. Dow and S&P still creeping up.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

AMZN is not one that I worry about because it's not retail driving their profits. It's AWS. They are currently trading at 35 times project 2023 earnings. While that is 40% annualized growth, it's not impossible to believe.

Amazon is the clear leader in the cloud space, and that market, not even their market share, is expected to quadruple by 2027.

The retail story is sketchy as it has always been. That's just bonus money. AWS, though, is a monster.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

Tesla stock will be splitting 5:1 at the end of the month.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by pr0ner »

Zaxxon wrote:
Tue Aug 11, 2020 5:43 pm
Tesla stock will be splitting 5:1 at the end of the month.
Apple is doing a 4:1 split at the end of the month, too.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

There a good chance I'm all out by the end of the month. I just need a catchy rhyme to make it OK.

Sell in August and don't go bust.
Sell by September third and you'll be remember-erd.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Please define "all out" for you. Like...sell all holdings to cash?! Or just all out of the options game?

I had what I thought was a moment (over a period of weeks) of clarity about the macro market, which happens occasionally, and I always look back on those thoughts with suspicion in hindsight (the bad, 'human nature" of investing). So I sold enough stocks to get to about 30-35% cash (which I had never done before). So I did that over a period of a month or two, and then sat looking at said cash, and thinking: "OK, cash, now what?! Do something!" :D

Within another month or two, I had bought new/more holdings and am now sitting at around 5% cash. :roll:

It all boils down to market timing, really. You either do it or you don't I guess. Or my way, is to say you don't, knowing in your head it's not a good idea, but do it kind of anyway, in a variety of subtle and not so subtle ways. OTOH, I've never sold to even close to 50% cash, so take that for what it's worth.

I do think some big headwinds are coming our way, but that is one sided, faulty thinking. I've learned you can't just think "OK, commercial credit swaps/derivatives are DEFINITELY going to blow up like the housing backed ones did in 2007/8, so I need to be in cash when that inevitably happens". Or "stock market value seems irrational in face of recession, continued fallout from COVID, Biden win, etc". There are usually counterbalancing positive effects too, that could cancel out or at least diminish the effects of the negs (but commercial credit implosion is not in that category I think...that will likely be a very short, very violent shock with years of trailing repercussions like the CDS issues of 07/08).

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Tue Aug 11, 2020 6:38 pm
There a good chance I'm all out by the end of the month. I just need a catchy rhyme to make it OK.

Sell in August and don't go bust.
Sell by September third and you'll be remember-erd.
In July I put in what I thought was insane calls for 9/18 for VT, VTI, and VYM, which is the lions share of my holdings (meaning I put calls at pre-March levels). If the pace continues and doesn't reverse based on sports and schools (and whatever is going on with regard to relief for the unemployed... it sure didn't on all of the bad 2nd quarter earnings reports) then I will be out as well. So the irony here is it will take a stagnation or a drawback between now 9/18 to me to be out. OTOH, if it all goes south enough early, I could buy back my calls and sell shares, I guess. I guess we'll burn that bridge when we get to it. I'm hard pressed to do that. The tax burden for turning my securities into cash would be immense and I don't trust my ability to read whatever is going on. This market going up up up continues to make no sense. So much so, as others covered calls are made, I'm beginning to reel it in. Even as accumulation case is hard. My 401k has me thinking though. My future is soooo tied to that and it is sooo tied to large indexes and the tech sector. But I'm just not smart or knowledgeable enough to understand where we are. I could see 2008 coming in 2007. I understood what was happening but the experts assured me I was wrong right up until "no one could have seen this coming". Here I can only say I feel like I want get out because I don't understand what is happening.

Also
Cisco Systems shares are trading lower after the company issued Q1 EPS guidance below estimates and said it sees Q1 sales down 9-11% year over year.
did not see that coming.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Carpet_pissr wrote:
Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:13 am
Please define "all out" for you. Like...sell all holdings to cash?! Or just all out of the options game?

Out of most holdings in my brokerage accounts. Retirement will still have "professionally managed" funds and about 25% cash. That's about half of my liquid savings. It was about 65% in January so I've been out performing them by bit.


What it boils down to is I'm probably selling most "buy and hold" and mid-term plays. I'll keep my short term trades on and continue to evaluate. Basically I'll have some OSTK, TA, RGR, SWBI until I think they're done. It's been a great run since March and I feel like I can watch from the sidelines and not have too much FOMO if things keep going. I'll still have the market funds in play. I may replace some holdings with LEAPS just to have something on.

Will boil down to like 80-90% cash/cash alternatives in 50% of my total, which is 100% of my self managed.




Some of that cash is going to go to physical gold and silver, alt/crypto currency, and I'm looking at some antique firearms.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:22 am
Carpet_pissr wrote:
Wed Aug 12, 2020 10:13 am
Please define "all out" for you. Like...sell all holdings to cash?! Or just all out of the options game?

Out of most holdings in my brokerage accounts. Retirement will still have "professionally managed" funds and about 25% cash. That's about half of my liquid savings. It was about 65% in January so I've been out performing them by bit.


What it boils down to is I'm probably selling most "buy and hold" and mid-term plays. I'll keep my short term trades on and continue to evaluate. Basically I'll have some OSTK, TA, RGR, SWBI until I think they're done. It's been a great run since March and I feel like I can watch from the sidelines and not have too much FOMO if things keep going. I'll still have the market funds in play. I may replace some holdings with LEAPS just to have something on.

Will boil down to like 80-90% cash/cash alternatives in 50% of my total, which is 100% of my self managed.




Some of that cash is going to go to physical gold and silver, alt/crypto currency, and I'm looking at some antique firearms.
Wow, good luck, sir!

Still holding any Boeing?

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Carpet_pissr wrote:
Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:19 am

Still holding any Boeing?
Not really, down to around 20 shares with a $97 cost basis. Free shares left after the last trade plus fractional from DRIP.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

There is definitely a weird relationship happening today. My equities continue to go up. As they have every day for what, two weeks straight? But instead of my options losing value to reflect, they are also gaining value. I'm actually debating buying some of my option to close that are in the black and then just selling the securities. Something just looks rotten in Denmark.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Closed today:
ARKW
STZ
CTSX
NEM
NTR
DIS

Sold half today:
TSM

Closing soon:
WBA
DUK
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by pr0ner »

Do you pay estimated taxes to the IRS during such a big sell off?
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

pr0ner wrote:
Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:56 pm
Do you pay estimated taxes to the IRS during such a big sell off?
As I might end up with a big sell off as well, I wonder what the tax implications are. This has already been the first year I ever sold equities and it might end up being much bigger than I though when I first started "actively trading"

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by pr0ner »

LordMortis wrote:
Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:04 pm
pr0ner wrote:
Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:56 pm
Do you pay estimated taxes to the IRS during such a big sell off?
As I might end up with a big sell off as well, I wonder what the tax implications are. This has already been the first year I ever sold equities and it might end up being much bigger than I though when I first started "actively trading"
My past big sales have always been offset with enough withholdings, mortgage interest deductions, and some other cap gains losses captured in the sales that all it did was get close to zeroing out my federal returns. I would still owe my state in that case, but never enough to bring about any penalties, just TurboTax suggesting I made estimated payments to both the feds and the state.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

pr0ner wrote:
Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:56 pm
Do you pay estimated taxes to the IRS during such a big sell off?
Not for most of it. 401K brokerage account.

My options and a few trades are in another account. I never pay estimated taxes though, they get reconciled with losses at the end of the year.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by pr0ner »

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:32 pm
pr0ner wrote:
Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:56 pm
Do you pay estimated taxes to the IRS during such a big sell off?
Not for most of it. 401K brokerage account.

My options and a few trades are in another account. I never pay estimated taxes though, they get reconciled with losses at the end of the year.
Ah, gotcha.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

I put in the request to move move the bulk of my 401k into a money market this morning while leaving my new contributions to be put into their existing buckets. Change won't take effect until after market close. That could cost quite a bit, I think, after just now seeing in R&P that the senate went home last night. Ah well a day late and.... a dollar short? Now I'm debating the pullback on my IRA and my non tax sheltered/tax deferred portfolio as well. We'll see how much time I have to pay attention during the work day. I don't want to be my normal stupid self and make big decisions without thinking them through but today sure does feel like the day it all starts.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

It doesn't have to be a one day decision and move. Make an orderly exit if that's what you want to do.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:17 am
It doesn't have to be a one day decision and move. Make an orderly exit if that's what you want to do.
I'm trying to figure out what that means and do so. I made the huge exit in my 401k because that was the easiest and the one I actually have the least control over and has no immediate tax implications. Next is my IRA, because it also has no current tax implications but I'm a bit torn on what to do and how to get there. It's a much smaller amount of money and like my 401k is there for the long haul, so I'm inclined to let it endure more of what I think is coming. The last will be my personal portfolio which has huge tax implications and is full of complex decisions. At the same time, it's the one I actively manage and the first one I'd have to raid if my finances go south, so there is going to be full stop on everything but my CD ladder while I try to figure out the best way to let the pressure out of the tires for equities I've been gathering since 2014 (many of which are already at a loss and would counterbalance doing things like trying to cut back on my indexes investments, which are the vast majority of my holdings) and the covered calls I've been learning and building on for the last couple of months (most of which expire on September 18th). Likely I'll spend a chunk of the weekend trying to a build a plan "that's the best I can do."

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:27 pm
Closed today:
ARKW
STZ
CTSX
NEM
NTR
DIS

Sold half today:
TSM

Closing soon:
WBA
DUK
Interesting - we have some overlap/similar thinking:
Also holding STZ, and my sell target is around $210
Holding a small amount of DUK, will hold until $90 or so.
Both of those were bought not expecting stellar share price performance per se, but more for the fat divvie.

Holding, and close to my sell price;
VIAC :grund: This was not a very well researched initial buy, and I am going to pay for that when I go to sell for a considerable loss. If anyone has thoughts on this one, would love to hear your opinion.
COF
AMZN I guess...not really that close...currently trading $3143 and my rough sell target is around $3500

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

401K is in now completely money marketed (except for new contributions). That's about 2/3's of my entire worth (that I can't touch for another decade). I think I'm going to leave my IRA as is (that I can't touch for another decade). That's about 1/15th of my worth. I'm easing out of my portfolio. There is about 1/5 of my worth at risk of going flat there. I'm not sure how much I'll pull or how quickly. Most of that money is in broad index funds and I put covered calls against those funds not due until the 18th of September. The smaller amounts are in calls that quite frankly are likely to get striked... struck... stricken... and also won't bankrupt me if the bottom falls out. And so I'm in watch mode. I think as liquidate equities, I'm going to bank them until December in preparation for 2021's IRA contribution. For my money, that's quite a bit and I'm not likely to hit that amount before the presumptive school start/fall sports/election season hits the fan.

In related news, I'm hearing of people leaving the workforce locally to pursue more parenting in not teaching roles at home. Locally school starts mostly in two weeks around here.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Basically I'll have some OSTK, TA, RGR, SWBI until I think they're done.

OSTK $118, up 25%. Piper Sandler put a $140 price target on it today.

Last week they issued a few M shares at $84.50. I had a buy order in for 85.01 but it didn't dip that low again after morning lows and I didn't have time at work to chase ir. Still have a position but missed a chance to add.

The gun trade (SWBI, RGR) might be over, looking to exit. AOUT spin off from SWBI is on the 24th.


Still have SIVR Jan 21 calls.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

Stupid. Stupid. Stupid. So with a bit of a cool down today I buy back options on GE, NOK, SIRI, and IM and then rather than selling like just said I was going to do, I turned around and looked at how much options were going for later and then sold those covered calls again mostly for November. This did increase my cash position. :roll: Lord, lead me not unto temptation. I am such an idiot.


Also, the last 10 shares of KR hit my price point of $36.5, so I'm completely out there.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Fascinating stuff:

A financial-markets whodunit is rocking the exchange-traded world
...

Over the course of a few days, the price of a share of the ETN surged from $125 to $25,000.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by pr0ner »

Someone needs to go to jail over that one.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

From my feed, related Credit Suisse. I wonder if/how they can do damage control on this. How do you damage control on that? It's not like you can take $25,000 a pop back from the investors, can you?
Spoiler:
DGAZF Disaster Strikes As Dying ETN Blows Out Past Real Net Asset Value
10:08 am ET August 13, 2020 (Benzinga) Print

Another disaster in the world of exchange-traded notes occurred Wednesday when the VelocityShares 3x Inverse Natural Gas ETN (OTC: DGAZF) entered the day with a net asset value of $121 from Tuesday only to trade as high as $25,000.

What Happened: No, that $25,000 isn't a misprint and, no, that's not supposed to happen with exchange-traded products. First, some quick backstory on DGAZF arrived at this wild place.

Back in June, Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS), the issuing bank behind the VelocityShares ETNs, announced it was delisting nine of those products from the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange. The old DGAZ being part of that group was largely overlooked because some gold and silver products were included on the list and those are among this year's best-performing commodities.

The usual methodology of delisting is to close an ETF or ETN, but Credit Suisse moved the nine inverse and leveraged ETNs in question to over-the-counter trading, which is akin to allowing the products to die a slow death. With the benefit of hindsight, it's clear DAGZF should have been put out of its misery weeks ago.

“Although it is not currently accelerating the ETNs at its option, Credit Suisse AG continues to have the right to do so, as described in the pricing supplement for the ETNs,” the bank said in a June statement.

Why It's Important: Beyond the fact ETPs aren't supposed to trade tens of thousands of percent above their net asset values, the DGAZF is important for another reason. Fifty-seven delisted but still breathing ETNs with a combined $2.4 billion in assets under management are trading over the counter. That doesn't mean the DGAZF scenario repeat, but it doesn't mean it won't happen again, either.

That's not the only bad news here. It seems Credit Suisse was collect fees by loaning out DGAZF shares to short sellers. This was a $400 product earlier this month, but in the span of a few days, it touched $25,000, potentially creating paper losses of as much as $300 million for short sellers.

Not surprisingly, there's social media chatter that the Swiss bank could face litigation, though disclaimers could make a class action suit tricky for traders.

What's Next: Apparently, Credit Suisse learned its lesson and is accelerating the closure of DGAZF and the eight other ETNs.

“As described in the Pricing Supplement, investors will receive a cash payment per ETN equal to the arithmetic average of the closing indicative values of the ETNs during the accelerated valuation period,” according to the bank. “The accelerated valuation period will be a period of five consecutive index business days, which is expected to be from August 14, 2020 to August 20, 2020. The acceleration date is expected to be August 25, 2020, three business days after the last day of the accelerated valuation period.”

Basically, Credit Suisse is trying to give traders involved with DGAZF a decent exit package, if it's even possible at this point.
Credit Suisse AG Announces the Acceleration at Its Option of its Previously Delisted VelocitySharesTM 3x Inverse Natural Gas ETNs
5:00 pm ET August 12, 2020 (PR Newswire) Print

Credit Suisse AG ("Credit Suisse") announced today that it will accelerate at its option its VelocityShares(TM) 3x Inverse Natural Gas ETNs (the "ETNs"), which were previously delisted from the NYSE Arca.

https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/95619/ ... e_logo.jpg

The ETNs were originally listed on the NYSE Arca, but were delisted from the NYSE Arca as of July 12, 2020. On June 22, 2020, Credit Suisse suspended further issuances of the ETNs. Following the delisting from the NYSE Arca, the ETNs traded on an over-the-counter basis.

As described in the related pricing supplement for the ETNs (the "Pricing Supplement"), Credit Suisse, as the issuer of the ETNs, may, at its option, accelerate all issued and outstanding ETNs on any business day after the inception date. Credit Suisse expects to deliver notice of the acceleration of the ETNs via the Depository Trust Company on August 12, 2020.

As described in the Pricing Supplement, investors will receive a cash payment per ETN equal to the arithmetic average of the closing indicative values of the ETNs during the accelerated valuation period. The accelerated valuation period will be a period of five consecutive index business days, which is expected to be from August 14, 2020 to August 20, 2020. The acceleration date is expected to be August 25, 2020, three business days after the last day of the accelerated valuation period. If you have questions regarding the impact of the acceleration of the ETNs on your position, please contact your broker.

None of the other ETNs offered by Credit Suisse are affected by this announcement.

Title of ETN ETN CUSIP
VelocityShares(TM) 3x Inverse Natural Gas ETNs linked to the S&P 22542D282
GSCI(R) Natural Gas Index ER due February 9, 2032

Investor ContactsCredit Suisse ETN Desk, etn.desk@credit-suisse.com

Press ContactsCandice Sun, Credit Suisse AG, candice.sun@credit-suisse.com Anna Christensen, Credit Suisse AG, anna.christensen@credit-suisse.com

Credit Suisse AG Credit Suisse AG is one of the world's leading financial services providers and is part of the Credit Suisse group of companies (referred to here as 'Credit Suisse'). Our strategy builds on Credit Suisse's core strengths: its position as a leading wealth manager, its specialist investment banking capabilities and its strong presence in our home market of Switzerland. We seek to follow a balanced approach to wealth management, aiming to capitalize on both the large pool of wealth within mature markets as well as the significant growth in wealth in Asia Pacific and other emerging markets, while also serving key developed markets with an emphasis on Switzerland. Credit Suisse employs approximately 48,800 people. The registered shares (CSGN) of Credit Suisse AG's parent company, Credit Suisse Group AG, are listed in Switzerland and, in the form of American Depositary Shares (CS), in New York. Further information about Credit Suisse can be found at www.credit-suisse.com.

This document was produced by, and the opinions expressed are those of, Credit Suisse as of the date of writing and are subject to change.

Copyright (C) 2020, CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

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View original content to download multimedia:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases ... 11349.html

SOURCE Credit Suisse AG

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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LordMortis has LawBeef on ignore.
Hodor.

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This was actually a follow up to lawbeef. I would have had Credit Suisse on ignore if LB hadn't posted yesterday. Now I'm curious. Shorting is something I will never touch but it's something I am fascinated by as it has such a huge influence on so much more.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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LordMortis wrote:
Thu Aug 20, 2020 9:42 am
This was actually a follow up to lawbeef. I would have had Credit Suisse on ignore if LB hadn't posted yesterday. Now I'm curious. Shorting is something I will never touch but it's something I am fascinated by as it has such a huge influence on so much more.
Ahhh. That's fair.

Still a real cluster.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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Yoink from Tesla...
LawBeefaroni wrote:
Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:53 pm

OSTK was $2.50 in March.
I was looking at the big movers and shakers in March and bought them. I don't regret it. I was buying too much and it already felt too close to gambling. OSTK would have been so far out of my comfort and (believed) understanding zones... Though if you would have been talking about them then, I might have tried to understand why.

I'm out of all of my March and April purchases except for my increases in VT, VTI, SPY, IRM, GSK, and two remaining shares of MSFT. I eventually parlayed my IRM and GSK into enough shares to sell options on. They may or may not go. I keep doing stupid stuff like buying back my IRM August call and then pushing it out until October for a quick $100. VT, VTI, and SPY are things I'm on the fence for me as I watch reports for schools and COVID every day.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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Also from my feed about Robinhood. If it's verboten to post these entire bits let me know. These are from my brokerage account, so I can't link to my sources.
Spoiler:
Does Robinhood Make It Too Easy to Trade? From Free Stocks to Confetti; Some behavioral researchers say the app's simplicity encourages novice investors to take bigger risks
2:53 pm ET August 20, 2020 (Dow Jones) Editor's Picks Print

By Michael Wursthorn and Euirim Choi

Few brokerage apps have captured people's attention like Robinhood Markets Inc. The Silicon Valley company has turned the complex process of trading stocks into a simple, free swipe across a screen.

But some behavioral researchers contend that that simplicity is turning investing into a game, and nudging inexperienced investors to take bigger risks.

Robinhood and other newer trading apps such as eToro USA LLC and Webull Financial LLC inherit design elements from tech companies that influence user behavior to desired outcomes: Buy a product, use a service, view advertising. Traditional brokerage apps are stodgy. Robinhood blasts users' screens with digital confetti and makes Netflix -style recommendations for stocks to buy. Buttons tapped to buy a stock are bigger and brighter than those for canceling a trade.

Such cues can exacerbate humans' behavioral biases and can affect investing behavior, said Thomas Ramsøy, a neuropsychologist who is chief executive of Neurons Inc., an applied neuroscience company.

"If it feels right, we tend to go for it," he said.

The Robinhood app is set in vivid colors. Its behavior incentives include giving users a trial run with free stock and making money instantly available to trade. Some cues nudge users to repeat certain behaviors and buy stocks based on what other people purchased.

Robinhood Chief Operating Officer Gretchen Howard said the app doesn't gamify trading or encourage risky behavior. The company was founded with the purpose of erasing barriers to investing and provides a range of educational content on trading through its website, she added.

"We believe that broader participation in the markets is more democratic and can bring opportunities to many. Those who dismiss retail investors as gamblers or gamers perpetuate the myth that investing is only for the wealthy and highly educated," Ms. Howard said.

"We built Robinhood to be a platform for customers to learn and invest responsibly, and most of our customers use a buy-and-hold strategy with their investments."

A Robinhood spokeswoman added the brokerage doesn't make recommendations to buy and sell securities.

The app shows users related stocks that other Robinhood users also own.

Robinhood's minimal interface has proved to be a draw for younger investors . The brokerage boasts of having 13 million users who have a median age of 31, and was recently valued at $11.2 billion through a new fundraising round disclosed on Monday. The company doesn't specify how many accounts are active.

Mr. Ramsøy, the neuropsychologist, said the simplified interface can have benefits: Reducing the amount of information visible on the screen can lower the amount of mental stress that can otherwise overload users, and help users make smarter decisions. Yet, he said, the nudges can work in the other direction to prod users into less rational decisions.

Lisa Silva started trading on Robinhood the way many people do: Her friend texted her a referral link. She and her referring friend received a free share for her efforts, choosing among three stocks displayed on what looks like a virtual lottery scratch card.

"Robinhood is the gateway," said Ms. Silva, who is 35 years old and lives in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., with her son.

Ms. Silva received a share of department store Macy's Inc ., and she sold it soon after.

"I knew nothing about trading or the stock market. It really simplified it and was user-friendly from the beginning."

Now, Ms. Silva spends as much as five hours a day researching and trading penny stocks on her iPhone.

For self-directed brokerages like Robinhood, user trading generates money for the companies even when trades are free.

Marshini Chetty, an assistant professor of computer science at the University of Chicago specializing in human-computer interaction, said Robinhood's interface shares characteristics of what the software industry calls "dark patterns"—a design choice that steers users down a desired path.

For instance, once you start a trade on Robinhood, it is easier to move forward than to back out of it.

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While confirming the purchase requires a swipe up, there is no clear cancel button. To back out of a trade, the user has to press a link labeled "edit" on the top-left corner and then press an X button.

At rival Webull, users are presented with a "confirm" button to proceed with a trade and an X above that would cancel it. Webull also shows users a toggle to skip confirmations in the future.

But on apps from more traditional brokerages, such as Charles Schwab Corp . and E*Trade Financial Corp ., trade confirmations include labeled options to either place the order or cancel it.

Robinhood prompts users to transfer money from their bank accounts and ensures deposits of as much as $1,000 are immediately available for trading—a feature also available on Webull. Schwab, by contrast, takes at least one business day to clear funds and allow users to start trading.

"It's important to distinguish between accessible, modern design and gamification," Ms. Howard said. "The incentives we offer, such as free stock, give people a chance to learn about investing and companies."

All brokerages are incentivized to encourage users to trade. They earn money by sending customer orders to trading firms, which execute them. The practice, called payment for order flow , is controversial but legal in the brokerage industry, helping make commission-free trading possible. While customer orders must be executed at the best-available price, trading firms have many ways to use the trades to their advantage, including to mask larger buying and selling by the firm or its clients.

Robinhood made more than $270 million from selling order flow in the first six months of the year, according to securities filings that were compiled by Piper Sandler analyst Richard Repetto . Schwab made roughly $120 million, while E*Trade pulled in about $190 million. TD AmeriTrade Holding Corp . topped those three, earning more than $525 million.

"Receipt for order flow is a common, legal and regulated industry business practice," the Robinhood spokeswoman said.

After Ms. Silva's initial Robinhood deposit, confetti rained down across her screen, congratulating her.

"It makes people think they're winning," Ms. Silva said of the graphic.

The confetti graphic has become a Robinhood signature, finding its way into company advertising. "The animation marks a milestone moment," said Robinhood's Ms. Howard, who added that confetti isn't displayed on every trade or deposit.

Getting into Robinhood is far easier than getting out. Transferring accounts to another brokerage takes as long as a week, which is common in the brokerage industry. Ms. Silva, who moved most of her activity to rival Webull, still keeps trading penny stocks in her Robinhood account because she fears their prices could swing too much during the time it takes to transfer them.

Webull, founded in 2017 and based in New York, features a more sophisticated interface and more trading options than Robinhood, including data on short sellers, wider trading windows and a social-media feed similar to Twitter . It also employs bright colors and graphics touting promotions to its roughly 750,000 daily active users, who are mostly in the U.S.

A recent promotion, Webull's Summer Referral Competition, pits users in a referral race for free shares in technology stocks Facebook Inc ., Amazon.com Inc ., Apple Inc ., Netflix Inc . or Google parent Alphabet Inc . A leaderboard, similar to what people see in videogames and contests, shows users where they stand.

"We are successfully utilizing peer marketing that is extremely popular with our millennial user demographic," a Webull spokesperson said.

Another rival, eToro , offers cryptocurrency trading in the U.S. and plans to start trading stocks next year. It gives $50 for each referral and to new users.

The platform, which has 14 million users around the world, gives users the option to copy trades made by other people, said Guy Hirsch , eToro 's U.S. managing director. About one-eighth of its U.S. users use the service, which is aimed at traders who don't have the time to do their own research or are new to investing.

Users with enough copycats are eligible to earn 2% of the total money that is copying them, he added.

"Behavioral research and design elements can also play a positive role in educating retail investors about investing and risks," an eToro spokeswoman added, "as well as preventing undesired outcomes such as losing more than one has."

Write to Michael Wursthorn at Michael.Wursthorn@wsj.com

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Wed Aug 05, 2020 1:38 pm
LordMortis wrote:
Mon Aug 03, 2020 10:34 am
Where are you before the fact, instead of after? :P
TA +18% today on earnings.
Sold half on Friday. Good run, take some profits.

Today it's up 16% on analyst coverage.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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Apparently I'm a drug kingpin now. With my recent partial Amazon selloff, I have been buying drug companies. Pfizer? Merck or Biogen you say? Noooo. Stodgy old blue chips!

I'm talking sweet sweet cannabis, ladies and gents. And perhaps more interesting and exciting, as of today, shrooms!

Lest you think I'm an idiot who bought these in a wild hair moment, I have been considering future health meds for a while now, and I keep coming back to psilocybin. During my....sabbatical...from OO the past couple of years (?), I have had quite a few firsts in my life. Won't go into that here, but let's just say I have read and listened a metric shit ton about mental health.

I think I first heard about medical tourism for the sole purpose of using psilocybin in a controlled environment from a podcasting psychologist. Never paid it much attention, but this guy talked about it a few times on his show as a potential help for those where other meds or behaviors didn't. He wasn't pushing it or anything, just mentioned it sometime, and that he had heard positive feedback from patients who had tried it.

Then as months went on, I heard more and more mainstream talk about it, from extremely known and well-respected professionals. This past week I heard a bit on NPR about the guy at Johns Hopkins who has apparently almost single-handedly legitimized psilocybin as a medical treatment, and has already done hundreds of clinical trials.

Also starting to hear the same things over and over again, from wildly different sources and at different times:
-a much bigger game changer than CBD/cannaboids
-much more effective in treating depression (but also PTSD) than traditional pharmaceuticals
-we still know VERY little about the mechanism, medically and biologically, but over and over again; "it's extremely effective" (one session can treat depression for several months apparently).
-I'm personally interested in a newish node and some trials dealing with adult ADHD and psilocybin.

So...with all that said, I have been really digging into who the players are in this field, trying to narrow down my investing options to three or less. I finished my work on that today, and not surprisingly, none of the "big" three were selling for more than a dollar (or even .50!) :D

With so little financial info and history out there on these companies, I am fully aware that I am throwing money at these, playing the lottery hoping that one among them makes it or gets bought out by JNJ or similar. It is in effect "play" money, but I do strongly and firmly believe there is a future for this drug as a legitimized medicinal solution for many, many people. And not just in Canada and the Netherlands, but here in the "War on Drugs", stodgy ol USA! :flags-usa:

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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Interesting. I am reading Michael Pollan's How To Change Your Mind... and the subject is therapeutic use of psychedelics.

I do believe the evidence is there that psilocybin and MDMA might have legitimate medical uses. I just don't know if there will ever be enough demand for these drugs for an industry to arise for them. From what I gather, if the therapy session goes properly there is little need to repeat it. People's brains just get "fixed".
Black Lives Matter

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

AOUT trades today. Been picking it up in the $15-16 range.

It's a spin off from SWBI. SWBI keeps the guns (Smith & Wesson), AOUT is the outdoor stuff and ammo. Think VSTO.

I think AOUT is worth more than $20. My opinion only.







TA finished up 29% yesterday. Big winner but like I said, sold half on Friday. Bittersweet.
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