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Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

And there's the GME squeeze.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

CRON easily overlooked with a mere 9% day. $10.60.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

It feels like there is some hanky panky going on. I have two securities I have been holding on among all my long positions, waiting for the time I would write off their losses against gains made elsewhere. Both have been basically worthless for years. One that tanked years ago from presenting bad books and one was a bad "penny stock" pick. Both have been stagnant at 98% loss for me for years. One has gone from $.20 to $.80 in two days. The other went from $.24 to $.55 in two days (though is now "declining" at $.51) For the amount I hold they're still both basically worthless, like the OTC commission makes trading meaningless worthless, but neither rise makes sense, announcing a chapter 11 reorganization as one of the companies recently did is worthy of a 100% gain.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Hoodies and now reddit running all kinds of pump and dumps.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/games ... 1610569885
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Jim Cramer has been pumping the crap out of TSM. I have my remaining "long term" position with a cost basis of $31.60 and planned to ride it out but his incessant pumping (he called it the most important company in the world this morning) is giving me some thoughts about cashing in now and looking for the dip.


SLGD, had a GTC limit order at $2.26. Filled today, took a drop to $1.99 on a few hundred shares and then shot to $3.03. Very low volume but something is going on there. Only playing with peanuts but these are the fun ones.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Jan 14, 2021 12:58 pm SLGD, had a GTC limit order at $2.26. Filled today, took a drop to $1.99 on a few hundred shares and then shot to $3.03. Very low volume but something is going on there. Only playing with peanuts but these are the fun ones.
It really does look like a lot of these OTC "penny stocks" are getting pumped for no reason. I can't tell if it's mania, pumping, or just my perception. Based on your note about reddit and GME, I looked up reddit and one of my bad penny stock pick that I've been holding and sure enough, in late December, out of nowhere anonymous Internet people on reddit and other chat boards are trying to sell it as an EV supply chain stock that going to hit $3 near term. (It is rare earth prospecting company but it is not an EV supply chain company) I'm debating cashing out a smaller loss than I'd otherwise take but difference is so small I'm no hurry.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

CNBC keeps coming back the "merry men" of Reddit this morning moving stocks. I guess the investor world is really beginning to take stock at Robinhood and they small young investor organizing against the machine. For good or ill.

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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

It would be curious to know how much is legit market moving and how much is taking advantage of trading algorithms. If it's the latter, it will be sorted out in a hurry.

This is an absolutely scary part of AI. If they can beat us at Go, we have no chance in the speculation market. The best you could do is hope to grab some coattails.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

noxiousdog wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:53 pm It would be curious to know how much is legit market moving and how much is taking advantage of trading algorithms. If it's the latter, it will be sorted out in a hurry.

This is an absolutely scary part of AI. If they can beat us at Go, we have no chance in the speculation market. The best you could do is hope to grab some coattails.
It's neither. It's an irrational herd. AI can't predict it and can even fall victim to it. GME had short interest >100%. That was hedge funds and their algos and AI. The herd said, "Let's break this."

Eventually AI will figure out how to take advantage and do things like spoof charts and set traps. Not there yet and if the herd remains irrational, there will always be a risk for the AI.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Interesting week.
Amidst this geopolitical backdrop, this is how the week has progressed.

Monday: A case of mistaken identity sends pink sheet stock Signal Advance skyrocketing. The Monday’s intraday peak was the culmination of more than 12,000% gain in three sessions. Despite being more than 85% below that peak, shares are still 1,800% higher than a week ago.

Tuesday: Small cap Zomedica skyrocketed when Animal Rights activist Carole Baskin talked up the company in a $300 Cameo clip. The company, which is forecast to have $5 million in revenues in 2021, is still worth $570 million at current prices.

Wednesday: GameStop experiences a short squeeze engineered by a massive army of social media speculators from Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum. The group appears to be targeting activist short names, engineering numerous short squeezes throughout the market.

Thursday: The madness appeared to break the AAII Sentiment Survey. The results initially showed the survey as 100% bullish, which is a level of optimism never reached before in the survey's 33 year history. The results were subsequently taken down. AAII has officially stated there are no results for the last week and they could not be tabulated due to a software error. We can’t wait to see what Friday brings.

There is little doubt as to what is fueling this insanity. In 2020, there was nearly $5 Trillion of fiscal stimulus pumped into the United States economy. There was an additional $3.25 Trillion of monetary stimulus and zero interest rate policy added as well. President elect Biden is seeking an additional $1.9 Trillion in fiscal stimulus in the coming month, and the Federal Reserve will add another $1.4 Trillion in monetary stimulus this year.

This is a massive stimulus driven bubble. Market participants frequently talk about generational buying opportunities like Q1 2009, or maybe even March of 2020. Take note, 2021 is setting up to be a generational selling opportunity. In the span of 12 months' time, we are setting up to witness approximately $6.5 Trillion of fiscal stimulus and $3.5 Trillion of monetary stimulus for a $21 Trillion economy.
Agree that there's a bubble but timing it is going to be difficult. Irrationally has long legs.


And what we were talking about (emphasis theirs):
All investors should note that the market is not as easy as it has appeared. In a business where there are no guarantees, it is a guarantee the environment will get harder. Institutional investors and companies should be on the lookout for the social media cabal looking to run share prices higher and take advantage of that liquidity when it is offered.

This is hardly an environment where informed investors are transacting to establish price discovery. It is simply a story, a theme and a buy order. Please remember there is no such thing as a new economy, there have been technological advances since the beginning of time. Yes, there are technological revolutions, but there are centuries of history of investors overpaying in the near term for the shiny and new. This environment will prove no different.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by Carpet_pissr »

LawBeefaroni wrote:
LordMortis wrote: Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:33 pm POWW is now $5.41 and flirted in the $5.7x's today. :envy:
I held through. Quite a day yesterday.




INTC announced this morning that Bob Swan is gone, Pat Gelsinger to take over in mid Feb. Up 12% pre-market.
2 weeks after I sold all my INTC. Brilliant timing. :)

Sold for a profit, and got a few divvies, but still...
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by malchior »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:49 pm
noxiousdog wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 12:53 pm It would be curious to know how much is legit market moving and how much is taking advantage of trading algorithms. If it's the latter, it will be sorted out in a hurry.

This is an absolutely scary part of AI. If they can beat us at Go, we have no chance in the speculation market. The best you could do is hope to grab some coattails.
It's neither. It's an irrational herd. AI can't predict it and can even fall victim to it. GME had short interest >100%. That was hedge funds and their algos and AI. The herd said, "Let's break this."
Yeah I think people overestimate what ML can do. It finds patterns. If the pattern has any stochastic elements (i.e. a lot of irrational rubes) it can't find a stable pattern. What AI can do pretty well at the moment is outlier detection & stock filter type work. That said, the high frequency price discovery mechanism is partially gone and the market is pretty dangerous. I'm just sticking to plain jane long-term investing because I only need just under 6% for the next 10 odd years and I retire early. I feel like I can get that and not play any stupid games in this market.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Let my UMC $2.50 calls exercise over the weekend. Right call but now I'm trying to decide how long I want to be a UMC shareholder.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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Do you think this "growth" will stop? When? When the stimulus promise dries up? When the infrastructure promises aren't good enough? When all the tech doesn't deliver at logarithmic growth? Or is this the new normal? I keep wondering when the other cradle will drop and the results will be. When the ride stops, what the pause looks like before we try to get back on again.

I'm looking at nearly a year where I am gaining more value in small personal portfolio out of, quite frankly, ignorant management than I am working and all I'm doing is picking up scraps. I got out Netflix before it took off, I got out of spotify before it took off, I got out of ROKU before it took off, I got out of Tesla before it took off, I got out of Apple before it took off. I avoided the the craziness that I can't comprehend. I've made poor choices in early day excitement before my coffee. And yet my small portfolio is just growing at stupid rate. Right now, I'm just waiting for things to pull back to put my growing cash into VTI but the indexes are continue to pull forward faster than I'm willing to increase my scale for buy point. And then I keep buying back back my covered calls and pushing them out and up so they don't go too far ITM. I'm keeping that cash too. I'm also debating letting some of these ITM covered call sales go and taking the money.

And while I sit here not putting more money on the table and in a round about way taking money off the table, reports are finance and the big money players are just sitting there with trillions on the sideline.

Since the beginning of the year my portfolio has gained 10% in value, concurrent with my covered calls subtracting 50% from being up 15% (while of course also making money on all of the sales contributing to that 10%). That's in 17 days. That's just stupid.

Edit: Even after the tears in 2019 and 2020: SPY in one month 365>385. VTI in one month 193>201. VT in one month 92>96. (These are the index ETFs I have been accumulating since starting my personal portfolio and just can't warrant increasing and are now all in danger of being bought on what I thought were ridiculous calls that keep getting pushed up and out)
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

It can't go on forever but it'll probably go longer than you think.

Thing is, missing out on some gain it better than holding the bag when it tanks.


If you're making crazy money and have a lot invested, it's always wise to get some insurance. If your making crazy money with just a little invested, probably take off anything you're not actively trading.


For an idea of where my head is, I'm heavily invested right now but also have SPY puts and other insurance.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Oh, and my employer just rolled out no mimlnimum 401K/403B contributions. Meaning even if you don't contribute you get an automatic contribution of x% of your salary. That's 20 some thousand automatic entrants into the market. No idea if it's a common thing but this, along with stimulus and hoodies is why there is just unbelievable inflows into markets.

I have a clip of Barry Sternlicht dropping the shit-word live on CNBC this morning in describing a lot of new IPOs ("shit companies").
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

BTW, F $11.20.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 10:27 am For an idea of where my head is, I'm heavily invested right now but also have SPY puts and other insurance.
I don't trust me to understand puts. I'm (probably too) heavily invested in my covered calls. In a weird way that is my insurance. Rather than taking money off the table (for now, though that's looking to change as some of these calls near expire/strike) Right now, if the market equitably dropped 20%, my hit would be only about 13%. OTOH, if this keeps going up anything remotely like this pace, I don't know how comfortable I am with buying back to push up and push out any more.
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LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 10:33 am BTW, F $11.20.
Holding my F and learning option trading when F was at $6 is no small part of why my money is up stupid since November.

Edit up over $1 today right now at $11.88. Market is stupid.

Newslets are speculating this rise is on Ford's relationship with Rivian, like this is some revelation.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

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LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 10:32 am Oh, and my employer just rolled out no mimlnimum 401K/403B contributions. Meaning even if you don't contribute you get an automatic contribution of x% of your salary. That's 20 some thousand automatic entrants into the market. No idea if it's a common thing but this, along with stimulus and hoodies is why there is just unbelievable inflows into markets.

I have a clip of Barry Sternlicht dropping the shit-word live on CNBC this morning in describing a lot of new IPOs ("shit companies").
The federal government automatically puts a contribution of 1% of all federal employees' salaries into the TSP, and then will match of some sort up to the first 5% an employee contributes. So, if a federal employee contributes 5% to his TSP, the government kicks in another 5%.

I wind up having 14% of my salary put into my retirement every year as a result of my own contributions + government contributions. It's too much money to pass up.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Yeah, we have had the match (it was suspended 4 months during COVID) but the "free" contribution is new.
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Post by LordMortis »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 12:39 pm Yeah, we have had the match (it was suspended 4 months during COVID) but the "free" contribution is new.
We did that almost a decade ago. They cut the match and replaces it with a smaller flat % contribution + discretionary profit sharing. I really need to cut my contributions (which I believe amount to about 7% of my check) so I can better directly manage my money but 1) Inertia and 2) I've gotten used to the tax deferral.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Bought a lot of GBTC yesterday and a lot of BTC overnight. The Bitmex claim of double spend was BS and may have been market manipulation as their BTC holdings are at multi-year lows and Black Rock also happened to be entering the market yesterday.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by raydude »

Did a quick check of the TSLA stock I bought a year and 5 days ago. 744% gain?! I'll check back again next year.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LordMortis »

Fortune favors the bold, I guess. I think I am looking for good exit ramps right now. I don't know what that is. I do have my eye on more BGS but moreso on just putting more cash orders in to buy VTI on a dip (currently at 200 with my starting to buy at 194), essentially just building cash while I watch the market go up.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:52 am GME epic short squeeze maybe unfolding.
GME was around $12 then. It's $72 today. Hedgies vs Hoodies and the Hoodies are winning at the moment.

Trying to get some puts but it's moving way too much.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by pr0ner »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 1:45 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:52 am GME epic short squeeze maybe unfolding.
GME was around $12 then. It's $72 today. Hedgies vs Hoodies and the Hoodies are winning at the moment.

Trying to get some puts but it's moving way too much.
At $56.32 right now, down from a high of $74.

And up to $62.19 while writing this post.

Literally insane.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

pr0ner wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 2:22 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 1:45 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:52 am GME epic short squeeze maybe unfolding.
GME was around $12 then. It's $72 today. Hedgies vs Hoodies and the Hoodies are winning at the moment.

Trying to get some puts but it's moving way too much.
At $56.32 right now, down from a high of $74.

And up to $62.19 while writing this post.

Literally insane.
Apparently Citron Capital was promoting the short thesis and were getting death threats against their kids because of it. Some keyboard warriors may getting some uncomfortable visits from the authorities.
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Re: Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

Post by pr0ner »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 2:26 pm
pr0ner wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 2:22 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 1:45 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 10:52 am GME epic short squeeze maybe unfolding.
GME was around $12 then. It's $72 today. Hedgies vs Hoodies and the Hoodies are winning at the moment.

Trying to get some puts but it's moving way too much.
At $56.32 right now, down from a high of $74.

And up to $62.19 while writing this post.

Literally insane.
Apparently Citron Capital was promoting the short thesis and were getting death threats against their kids because of it. Some keyboard warriors may getting some uncomfortable visits from the authorities.
I sure hope so.
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