How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

[Isgrimnur]

CNBC

There’s a 70% chance that a recession will hit in the next six months, according to new research from the MIT Sloan School of Management and State Street Associates.

The researchers created an index comprised of four factors and then used the Mahalanobis distance ... to determine how current market conditions compare to prior recessions.
...
It measures the distance between a point and a certain distribution.

Using this principle, the researchers analyzed four market factors — industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, stock market return and the slope of the yield curve — on a monthly basis. They then measured how the current relationship between the four metrics compares to historical readings.
...
Looking at data back to 1916, the researchers said that the index was a reliable recession indicator since it rose leading up to every prior recession. They found that when the index topped 70%, the likelihood of a recession in the next six months rose to 70%.

As of November 2019, the reading on the index was 76%.

[Isgrimnur]

January Unemployment - 3.6% (0.1%)

Table A-4 - >= Age 25 by education level

Category	Percent	Change	YOY Change
Less than a high school diploma	7.4	1.5	0.0
High school graduates, no college	4.4	0.7	0.1
Some college or associate degree	3.0	0.4	0.7
Bachelor's degree and higher	2.0	0.2	0.5

Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 13.0% (2.0 , 0.7 YOY)


Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment

Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs	2.0
Job leavers	0.5
Reentrants	1.2
New entrants	0.3

Table A-12 - Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment

	Weeks	Change	YOY Change
Average Duration	20.5	0.2	1.3
Median Duration	8.6	0.2	0.3

[Isgrimnur]

BI

American employers created 500,000 fewer jobs than initially estimated from January 2018 through March 2019, according to new data from the Labor Department released on Wednesday.

While the revisions don't alter the portrait of a healthy job market, they undercut the Trump administration's claims that the 2017 tax cuts and increased federal spending provided the economy with a jolt that spurred more hiring. It also indicates the economic growth has not been as robust as expected. Final employment data will be published in February 2020.
...
The revisions cast a darker cloud over consumer industries. Retailers shed around 150,000 more jobs than initially thought. But the outlook was better for other industries like transportation and warehousing, which saw a bump of 80,000 more jobs.

[malchior]

This is potentially a fairly interesting use of predictive analytics here. The actual study is fairly elusive to find and it appears to not have been widely published yet so heaps of salt are required here. That said, there have several other technical indicators indicating recession as well over the last 3-4 months and a potential bubble out in some tech sector stocks again ($TSLA is almost certainly a bubble stock).

There's a 70% chance of recession in the next six months, new study from MIT and State Street finds

[Isgrimnur]

February Unemployment - 3.5% (0.1%)

Table A-4 - >= Age 25 by education level

Category	Percent	Change	YOY Change
Less than a high school diploma	7.2	0.2	0.5
High school graduates, no college	4.1	0.3	0.1
Some college or associate degree	3.3	0.3	0.1
Bachelor's degree and higher	1.9	0.1	0.3

Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 11.5% (1.5 , 2.5 YOY)


Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment

Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs	1.9
Job leavers	0.5
Reentrants	1.1
New entrants	0.3

Table A-12 - Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment

	Weeks	Change	YOY Change
Average Duration	20.4	0.1	1.1
Median Duration	9.3	0.7	0.2

[Isgrimnur]

WaPo: This recession is going to be bad. Really bad.

I spoke to a bunch of economists about a situation that seems to be getting worse by the hour. They didn’t have the same answers to every question, but they all agreed that we are looking at a potential economic catastrophe, and how bad it gets depends on decisions the federal government makes in coming days.

My first question was whether this is going to be worse than the Great Recession that began in 2008.

“That is absolutely in the realm of possibility,” said Heidi Shierholz of the Economic Policy Institute. Her colleague Josh Bivens posted an analysis Tuesday using Goldman Sachs projections of 0 percent growth in the first quarter of this year and a 5 percent contraction in the second quarter. It estimated that we will lose 3 million jobs by summer.

But then on Wednesday, JP Morgan forecast that the second quarter contraction would be a stunning 14 percent — worse than the depth of the Great Recession. If they’re right, Shierholz said, it would translate to 7.5 million jobs lost by the summer.

In the Great Recession, about 8 million jobs disappeared. Now some are predicting that the drop in payrolls for April alone could be as high as 5 million.

“Everyone thinks that the single-quarter decline will be bigger than any single quarter in the 2008 recession,” Betsey Stevenson of the University of Michigan, an economic adviser to President Barack Obama, told me.

[Smoove_B]

80k in one day for CA:

These increases are the tip of the iceberg. In a speech Wednesday evening, Gov. Gavin Newsom said the state had received 80,000 unemployment applications just on Tuesday alone.

“We average about 2,000 unemployment insurance claims a day,” Newsom said. “Two days ago or three days, we saw about 40,000 applications. After that 70,000 applications. Yesterday, 80,000 unemployment applications.”

[Isgrimnur]

[Max Peck]

[Kraken]

It shouldn't amuse me that this thread is suddenly relevant again.

[Smoove_B]

Economists expect April to be the first reporting month when the damage starts to show up.

5 million in April alone?

The worst month for job losses during the financial crisis was 800,00 in March 2009.

Some forecasts see April quintupling that or worse. Forecasts for that month range from 500,000 to 5 million.

“There’s just so much that we don’t know about how long the disruption to economic activity related to the containment of the virus will be. That does make forecasting these things very difficult,” said Jeremy Lawson, chief economist at Aberdeen Standard Investments. “By the time you get to the April payroll number, which may be right at the deepest level of contraction, yes, those numbers are plausible certainly.”

[LordMortis]

Boom goes the dynamite. I get to learn if short term furloughs allow me to collect unemployment in Michigan. So far all I've managed to learn is the company has to file my furlough with the state and working during a furlough (even answering an email) can get your company in deep shit. This all brand spanking new territory to me.

Now that business continuity is a mostly settled in and I get to work from home until the first of what I hope is only one short term furlough kicks in, and pretty much all of our customers are shut down, the day is actually very peaceful.

[LawBeefaroni]

3.28M

Americans displaced by the coronavirus crisis filed unemployment claims in record numbers, with the Labor Department reporting Thursday a surge to 3.28 million.

The number shatters the Great Recession peak of 665,000 in March 2009 and the all-time mark of 695,000 in October 1982. The previous week, which reflected the period before the worst of the coronavirus hit, was just 282,000.

Consensus estimates from economists surveyed by Dow Jones showed an expectation for 1.5 million new claims, though individual forecasts on Wall Street had been anticipating a much higher number. The surge comes amid a crippling slowdown brought on by the coronavirus crisis.

[LordMortis]

I gotta say WFH, in the current limited availability environment is so much more productive, easier, and less stressful (for me). I can't speak for the 7 billion interruptions vying for my attention everyday when I am in the office. I didn't think I would work well from home but I'm totally wrong. (Not sure how it works after day three).

The furlough is still going to suck donkey balls but at least it will be a staycation. (I still don't know if I'm eligible for unemployment for yet either, nor how that works)

[LawBeefaroni]

Crosspost, we're over 10M.

Initial jobless claims: 6.6 million. In a week.

That's 9.9M in two weeks.

A record 6.6 million Americans filed first-time jobless claims last week the Labor Department said Thursday, in a sign the sudden shutdown of a vast swath of U.S. commerce may be just starting to wreak havoc on the economy. That followed 3.3 million claims the prior week.

[Isgrimnur]

March Unemployment - 4.4% (0.9%)

Table A-4 - >= Age 25 by education level

Category	Percent	Change	YOY Change
Less than a high school diploma	8.1	0.9	1.2
High school graduates, no college	4.8	0.7	0.8
Some college or associate degree	3.9	0.6	0.4
Bachelor's degree and higher	2.4	0.5	0.4

Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 13.7% (2.2 , 1.6 YOY)


Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment

Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs	2.7
Job leavers	0.4
Reentrants	1.1
New entrants	0.3

Table A-12 - Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment

	Weeks	Change	YOY Change
Average Duration	17.5	2.9	3.5
Median Duration	7.3	2.0	3.5

[stessier]

I'm being forced to take half my vacation or the equivalent in unpaid leave. I'm not happy about it because of my ideals about how corporations should act, but realize it could have been worse.

[Octavious]

They are starting to pick people off in my office. I don't think I will survive the purge as they are going after the senior people. Who needs healthcare in a pandemic anyway?

[stessier]

They are starting to pick people off in my office. I don't think I will survive the purge as they are going after the senior people. Who needs healthcare in a pandemic anyway?

I don't wish for you to lose your job, but you getting out of that job sure would sound like a win if we weren't heading into the worst period of job loss in the last 80 years.

[Octavious]

Ya I don't think finding another job right now would be super easy. They wacked a bunch of the head people in our India QA office which makes no sense as they couldn't have been that expensive and we're already super short on QA testing. I'm just hoping it's a reorganization that has horrific timing.

[Octavious]

Ya I don't think finding another job right now would be super easy. They wacked a bunch of the head people in our India QA office which makes no sense as they couldn't have been that expensive and we're already super short on QA testing. I'm just hoping it's a reorganization that has horrific timing.

Turns out that the reorganized that entire office and it has nothing to do with the pandemic. We had people fly over there two months ago and this is the result. Of course that doesn't mean they aren't planning to do the same in the us office.

That's some really shitty timing though as these people likely can't even go out to look for a job for at least a month with the lockdowns.

[AWS260]

Laying people off sucks. Not as much as being laid off, I'm sure, but I'm taking advantage of the relative anonymity of these boards to vent.

[Kraken]

Laying people off sucks. Not as much as being laid off, I'm sure, but I'm taking advantage of the relative anonymity of these boards to vent.

I always hated doing that. The worst is when they cry.

I often gave marginal people a lifeline when I was hiring to fill marginal positions like part-time cashier. Sometimes I got burned, but more often I got very loyal people who tried their hardest to make it. When you have to fire someone for whom part-time cashier is a real challenge, you both know they aren't going to find another job. Successful, well-adjusted people will land on their feet -- don't worry about them.

[LordMortis]

WFH/Furlough alternating just got extended to the 4th and there is firm belief by my boss' boss it will get extended again. Selfishly, I'm digging it. The pay cut sucks, but I still have insurance, my workload is tiny and I'm staycationing every other week with no commute on the weeks I work. I'm down 15 pound in three weeks with no exercise, just reduced stress. The reality of 2,000 people in the US dying a day stays outside my door as long as my paycheck is enough to keep on keeping on.

[Exodor]

Been working two days a week in the office and three at home - until someone "presented symptoms" yesterday at the office and now we're all working from home until the end of next week.

[dbt1949]

I've been working at home for 26 years now.
My butt has adapted.

[Max Peck]

It's only been 6 years for me, but my butt adapted on day one. It turns out that professional slacking is my true vocation.

[Jaymann]

I just found out I lost $50k from my IRA stocks in the first quarter, I was afraid it would be much worse. I didn't want to redeem them because I would have had to pay taxes on anything I took out. But I still own the stocks, so if the market ever goes up again I will be in good shape.

[gbasden]

That's some really shitty timing though as these people likely can't even go out to look for a job for at least a month with the lockdowns.

They don't necessarily need to. We just hired someone for our team and everything was done remotely - the interview, hiring and onboarding. The new person is going to start doing productive work next week without ever meeting any of the team or our manager face to face.

[raydude]

My group extended a job offer to someone I interviewed in early February. That someone would really help take a load off my tasking, as I’m overbooked to the tune of 2 FTE.

He’s worried about switching in the middle of the lockdown in MD and VA but I communicated to my group head that I would be fine talking to him on Zoom and getting him up to speed over video conferencing. Especially since I’ve been doing that ever since APL instituted their “work from home if at all possible” policy.

[stessier]

Created an Unemployment account today for the first (and hopefully last) time. It was surprisingly painless. Site was a little slow, but otherwise it was well explained. The required information for making a claim suggests that part will be more difficult - but I don't have to worry about that until mid-May.

[LordMortis]

Got my first rate cut pay check. I am now living in deficit. When this is all said and done, I am going to have to talk with finance/HR, as their cuts look to be a bit deeper than advertised and then you add on medical, etc... and my monthly expense exceeds my intake. That's nuts. I live off of nothing and my house is paid off. I truly wonder how people survive (before the virus)

[ImLawBoy]

So, JeffV, is that your employer I was reading about in the paper today? If so, good luck.

[LawBeefaroni]

Crosspost, we're over 10M.

Initial jobless claims: 6.6 million. In a week.

That's 9.9M in two weeks.

A record 6.6 million Americans filed first-time jobless claims last week the Labor Department said Thursday, in a sign the sudden shutdown of a vast swath of U.S. commerce may be just starting to wreak havoc on the economy. That followed 3.3 million claims the prior week.

Crosspost again, we're over 22M.

Yahoo.

After three consecutive weeks of jobless claims in the millions, another 5.245 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending April 11. Since June 2009, the U.S. economy added over 20 million jobs. But in just the last four weeks, the number of unemployment claims have reached 22 million.

Economists were predicting 5.5 million jobless claims for the week ending April 11. The prior week’s figure was revised higher to 6.615 million from the previously reported 6.606 million claims.

But hey, it's peaked, right? Right?

[LawBeefaroni]

4.4M new initial jobless claims.

[stessier]

4.4M new initial jobless claims.

We're we at 22M last week?

Edit: Nice stealth edit.

We are at 26.4M over the last 5 weeks.

[LawBeefaroni]

4.4M new initial jobless claims.

We're we at 22M last week?

Edit: Nice stealth edit.

We are at 26.4M over the last 5 weeks.

I think the 16M number was continuing for the month, not overall so I yanked it because it was unecessaily confusing.

Hey, but the stock market is recovering.

This is going to get ugly.

[stessier]

4.4M new initial jobless claims.

We're we at 22M last week?

Edit: Nice stealth edit.

We are at 26.4M over the last 5 weeks.

I think the 16M number was continuing for the month, not overall so I yanked it because it was unecessaily confusing.

Yeah, I eventually figured it out. It was part of the link, so I just left it.

Hey, but the stock market is recovering.

This is going to get ugly.

I really don't get it. I saw one person say it is up because the big companies that make up the indicies will survive, which is probably true, but all those people without jobs are going to have a hard time buying the stuff the big companies produce.

[coopasonic]

Hey, but the stock market is recovering.

This is going to get ugly.

I really don't get it. I saw one person say it is up because the big companies that make up the indicies will survive, which is probably true, but all those people without jobs are going to have a hard time buying the stuff the big companies produce.

Despite what certain orange leaders would have you think, the stock market is *not* the economy. The market is about expectations, it crashed based on expectations and unknowns, now people feel like that has been accounted for and things have sort of stabilized. I'm not sure I would say it is recovering, it has just become less volatile and is trending positively... which now that I type it sounds a lot like recovering, but it's a slow walk.

The market is comfortable doesn't mean any of us are comfortable, or employed.

[LawBeefaroni]

Hey, but the stock market is recovering.

This is going to get ugly.

I really don't get it. I saw one person say it is up because the big companies that make up the indicies will survive, which is probably true, but all those people without jobs are going to have a hard time buying the stuff the big companies produce.

Despite what certain orange leaders would have you think, the stock market is *not* the economy. The market is about expectations, it crashed based on expectations and unknowns, now people feel like that has been accounted for and things have sort of stabilized. I'm not sure I would say it is recovering, it has just become less volatile and is trending positively... which now that I type it sounds a lot like recovering, but it's a slow walk.

The market is comfortable doesn't mean any of us are comfortable, or employed.

It was down 35% from peak to trough. It's up around 28% since. It hasn't fully recovered but I'd still say it's way too far ahead of news and realities. It's priced for full recovery by January.

There just isn't enough information to price in all effects. 26M are out of work but headlines are "S&P had best month since 2011!!!"