How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

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Jag
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Jag »

The only significant change from 6.5 years ago is moving to a slightly more expensive house which bumped up my mortgage a bit and lost some equity I had built up in the prior house.

Job is same going on 12 years with decent raises, kids same, wife was working, then didn't and is working again, so that's the same.

Burnout level is higher, but I really can't complain overall.

Edit: Oh and the dog in my pic is dead. I should probably swap it with the new pup.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by geezer »

Matrix wrote:Hmm, well i am certainly much more experienced in business. I think 6.5 years ago my coaching business was just starting to hit strides, now i am getting out of the field.
I think we need to add less tangible stuff that relates to economics, such as experience, hire-ability, etc. Since in that sense i think i am much better off then in financial sense at the moment, since i spent a bunch of start ups, ideas , new projects that were great in terms of learning if not always financially best.

Experience: Much broader, much better understanding of underlying business, management style and start up principles
Mortgage: none (renting all the way in nyc)
Home equity: none
Cost of Living: higher
Work Income: Much higher, probably 3x what it was but depends on a year, this year will be crappy, industry is changing. (commission based on clients)
Job Security: None or Infinite depending how you look on it
Outside income: Higher, i done digital consulting a lot over the last 5 years.
Property Tax: none
Health insurance: same
Other insurance: none
Savings: Somewhat higher. Used to be much higher, but after i spent a bunch on startup and invested recently into bunch of domains... well its way lower now
Retirement funds: ??? none at the moment, for me its all about using capital to hit it out of ball park . My retirement fund right now is in the forms of domains
Debt: none
Car: none
Number of kids: none that i know of
Level of uncertainty: Mild. I am changing my field of work and moving from coaching to niche eCommerce site/startup. Because i have done so much digital consulting, its not a new thing, so i dont feel it as much.
Dude. Get health insurance. Wait. Same as before, not same as "none." Sorry :)
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

(Projected) Busiest travel weekend in a decade
AAA starts counting travelers for the summer's first holiday weekend on Thursday, and they expect 37.2 million people to attempt the great escape -- travel 50 miles or more from home -- this weekend. That's the biggest Memorial Day weekend mini-migration in a decade. About 33 million of them will drive.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by coopasonic »

Isgrimnur wrote:(Projected) Busiest travel weekend in a decade
AAA starts counting travelers for the summer's first holiday weekend on Thursday, and they expect 37.2 million people to attempt the great escape -- travel 50 miles or more from home -- this weekend. That's the biggest Memorial Day weekend mini-migration in a decade. About 33 million of them will drive.
They call it the great escape, I call it going to my sister-in-law's place for cake and presents. Luckily it's not far over 50 miles (59.3 miles).

I am embarrassed to admit my son, who turns 9 Tuesday, will be getting his first baseball glove. We are taking a couple ice packs just in case.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

USA Today
The U.S. economy has a sound engine. It just keeps running into potholes.

That's the message economists expressed Friday after the government revised down its estimate of meager 0.2% growth at an annual rate in the first quarter to a 0.7% contraction.

Even with an anticipated pickup in coming quarters, the downgrade likely means the economy will grow 2% to 2.5% in 2015, in line with the modest six-year-old recovery so far and short of the breakout 3% or so economists expected. A first-quarter contraction in 2014 similarly crimped growth for the entire year.
...
The economy's temporary headwinds include nasty weather that delayed activity early this year and a surge in imports as backlogs were cleared from a now-settled labor dispute at West Coast ports. Those episodes are history.

The effects of a strong dollar that's hurting U.S. exports and low oil prices that are shutting down drilling projects are likely to last longer but will be far less prominent by the second half of the year, economists say.
One wonders how the deluge impacting Texas, especially Houston, is going to impact this quarter.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

May Unemployment - 5.5% (0.1%)

>= Age 25 by education level
CategoryPercentChangeYOY Change
Less than a high school diploma8.00.40.5
High school graduates, no college5.40.20.7
Some college or associate degree4.20.21.1
Bachelor's degree and higher2.60.10.4
Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 17.8% (2.2, 1.5 YOY)

Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment
Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs2.5
Job leavers0.5
Reentrants1.7
New entrants0.6
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by The Meal »

In April 2014 The Meal wrote:A company-wide "Global Job Leveling" process has just resulted in me getting my first non-change-in-employer raise since... 2004 or 2005.

3%! Used to feel like an insult, now it's a sign that my employer loves me. Strange times.
First performance-based raise since four jobs ago (a job I left in 2006) granted to me today. Of course, it's smaller than the across-the-board raise given out by the company just over a year ago, but I earned this one.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

July Unemployment - 5.3% (0.0%[)

>= Age 25 by education level
CategoryPercentChangeYOY Change
Less than a high school diploma8.20.91.2
High school graduates, no college5.50.40.5
Some college or associate degree4.50.41.0
Bachelor's degree and higher2.80.20.7
Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 17.1% (4.3, 4.0 YOY)

Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment
Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs2.7
Job leavers0.6
Reentrants1.6
New entrants0.9
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

Business survey generate fear
Signs China's slowdown is getting worse and weak growth in Europe have further damaged the outlook for the global economy, sending stocks and commodity prices reeling on Friday.

China's vast factory sector shrank at its fastest rate in almost 6-1/2-years in August, a private survey showed, pushing investors who fear China's sagging economy will translate into slower global growth to take refuge in gold and bonds.

World markets had already been on edge after China's surprise devaluation of the yuan last week and a near-collapse in its stock markets in early summer.

"Uncertainty about China growth is now the main swing factor in markets," said Tim Condon, an economist at ING Group in Singapore.
...
Euro zone business growth unexpectedly accelerated this month but remained tepid, according to surveys out of Europe, while a similar index due later from the United States is expected to show only a modest pick up in factory growth.

World stock markets tumbled towards their worst week of the year and commodities got another kicking, as the data sent investors scurrying to the safety of bonds and gold.

Analysts still expect the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates this year, possibly as soon as next month, though minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's last meeting in July showed policymakers discussed China, Greece's debt crisis and the weak state of the global economy.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

ADP jobs numbers
Hiring by U.S. firms picked up a bit last month as the private sector added 190,000 net new jobs, payroll firm Automatic Data Processing said Wednesday.

The job growth was an improvement over July's 177,000 figure, which was revised down from the initial report of 185,000. But the August figure was below analyst expectations of about 210,000 net new private-sector jobs.
...
The construction industry added 17,000 net new jobs in August, up from 15,000 the previous month, ADP said. New hiring by manufacturers rebounded to 7,000 last month from just 1,000 in July.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

August Unemployment - 5.1% (0.2%)

>= Age 25 by education level
CategoryPercentChangeYOY Change
Less than a high school diploma7.30.91.3
High school graduates, no college5.40.10.6
Some college or associate degree4.50.00.9
Bachelor's degree and higher2.70.10.9
Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 16.5% (0.6, 2.6 YOY)

Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment
Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs2.5
Job leavers0.5
Reentrants1.5
New entrants0.6
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Scuzz »

Well, not a result of the economy, but my wife's company is owned by a couple older guys. One of them is in poor health and they have decided to close down the company. They have offices here, Palm Springs and the Bay Area. It is a medical coding company. Anyway, as of 10-02-15 my wife is out of work.

She has probably applied for a dozen jobs, each wanting the experience she possesses, however after she applies they all come back saying "Oh, we wanted this or that too". My wife is already very frustrated, both at the search and at her current, soon to be ex, boss. He had promised for years to train her on things that would now make her more valuable.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Octavious »

Was assigned a client that was an epic mess 5 months ago. Get it all fixed and they send a message that they will not be renewing at the end of the year. Awesome. Glad I stayed an extra 20 hours a week for 2-3 months. And it makes me look bad even though I didn't tank the client. I want to tackle the person who was running the client before me. :grund: :grund: :grund:
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by LordMortis »

Uck. I feel for you. I just spent a month of 80 hours weeks rebuilding our network from the ground up with help from a corporate network engineer (actually helping a corporate network engineer) and had my vacation cancelled for the privilege. I'm exhausted and have a ton of documentation and process rebuilding to do. I fear when it's all done they think my office will be good enough to remotely manage... but I'm hoping my fears are unfounded... unless they believe 80 is the new 40, in which case, fuck this. I can't and I won't do it. I went from 40 hours a week to 45 in 2008 and between 2008 and now I've hit 50+, which quite frankly, is already too much for me.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Octavious »

Finger pointing is starting. Saying that we lost contact with home office and such. Holy shit we had the client for 4-5 years and I had it for 5 months. I was in contact with the main person daily. Screw this.
Capitalism tries for a delicate balance: It attempts to work things out so that everyone gets just enough stuff to keep them from getting violent and trying to take other people’s stuff.

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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

Image
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Octavious »

Isgrimnur wrote:Image
Oh trust me I'm pulling it. I just hope the chute opens. :mrgreen:
Capitalism tries for a delicate balance: It attempts to work things out so that everyone gets just enough stuff to keep them from getting violent and trying to take other people’s stuff.

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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

ABC
Weekly applications for jobless aid rose 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 267,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week average, a less volatile figure, declined to 271,750.

Applications are a proxy for layoffs, and the low readings suggest Americans are enjoying solid job security. Steady economic growth has encouraged employers to hold onto the workers they already have and is spurring more hiring. The four-week average fell to a 15-year low last month.

The steady stream of low readings also indicates that employers have not been spooked by signs of slowing growth in China or recent volatility in the stock market.
...
The number of people receiving benefits was essentially unchanged at 2.24 million.

Employers have added an average of 221,000 jobs a month in the past three months, a solid pace and above the average of 189,000 in the preceding three months. The unemployment rate has fallen to 5.1 percent, a seven-year low.
...
The economy expanded at a 3.7 percent annual rate in the April-June quarter, though most analysts expect it will slow for the rest of the year. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates growth will be just 1.5 percent in the third quarter.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

ConAgra
ConAgra will cut about 1,500 jobs, or approximately 30 percent of its global, office-based workforce, and move its headquarters to Chicago from Omaha, Nebraska, the company said Thursday.

About 700 workers will be in Chicago starting next summer, including the company's senior leadership as well as some operations for its consumer foods segment that are situated in Omaha and Naperville, Illinois. The company will maintain a significant presence in Omaha with about 1,200 employees, ConAgra said. Those workers will be involved in research and development, supply chain management and some key administrative functions.

The company has around 3,000 employees at its headquarters in Omaha, in Lincoln, and across the Missouri River in Council Bluffs, Iowa.

The Naperville office, about an hour southwest of the Chicago, will close and between 320 and 350 jobs from there will move to the city after the cuts.

ConAgra, which makes Chef Boyardee, Slim Jim and Hebrew National hot dogs, said the job cuts exclude plant positions and do not include any impact from the planned sale of its private label operations. It anticipates about $345 million in one-time charges over the next two to three years related to the restructuring.
I'm sure that's exactly what Chicago needs. More people.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Isgrimnur wrote:
I'm sure that's exactly what Chicago needs. More people.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by coopasonic »

At least they aren't moving to North Dallas. :evil:
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

Jobless numbers
The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell more than expected to near a 42-year low last week, pointing to ongoing tightening in the labor market despite the recent slowdown in hiring.

The data released on Thursday provides an upbeat check on the health of the labor market after last week's monthly employment report increased doubts the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by the end of this year.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 263,000 for the week ended Oct. 3, the Labor Department said.

That was the lowest since mid-July when the number of claims was at its lowest since 1973. Hitting such a historical low is remarkable considering the U.S. workforce has grown considerably since the 1970s.

It was also the 31st straight week that claims remained below the 300,000 threshold, which is usually associated with a strengthening labor market. The Labor Department said there were no special factors impacting last week's claims.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Little Raven »

A new shift in the labor market...
Minimum-wage jobs are meant to be the first rung on a career ladder, a chance for entry-level workers to prove themselves before earning a promotion or moving on to other, better-paying jobs. But a growing number of Americans are getting stuck on that first rung for years, if they ever move up at all.

Anthony Kemp is one of them. In 2006, he took a job as a cook at a Kentucky Fried Chicken in Oak Park, Illinois. The job paid the state minimum wage, $6.50 an hour at the time, but Kemp figured he could work his way up.

“Normally, a good cook would make $14, $15, $17 an hour,” Kemp said. “I thought that of course I’d make a better wage.”

He never did; nine years later, the only raises Kemp, 44, has seen have been the ones required by state law. He earns $8.25, the state’s current minimum wage.

Stories like Kemp’s are becoming more common. During the strong labor market of the mid-1990s, only 1 in 5 minimum-wage workers was still earning minimum wage a year later.1 Today, that number is nearly 1 in 3, according to my analysis of government survey data.2 There has been a similar rise in the number of people staying in minimum-wage jobs for three years or longer.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by stessier »

I would be interested in seeing the data that a good cook at KFC earned $15-17/hr.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by coopasonic »

stessier wrote:I would be interested in seeing the data that a good cook at KFC earned $15-17/hr.
I read that as a good cook makes that money, not a good cook at KFC. I'd imagine you'd have to manage the KFC to make $15-17/hr.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

Self-reports, not an accurate, sample, etc.

Glass Door has Store Managers making $13.23/hour.

Expecting to make that much as a cook could totally be a thing. Expecting to make that much at KFC is a fairy tale.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by LordMortis »

I don't think with 9 years of seniority $14 an hour is too much to ask to make at fast food.

9 years says a lot about your dependability against turn over.

At the same time, I don't generally think of fast food jobs as career jobs, which is why I don't think of $15 minimum wage for fast food work is the same at paying someone $14 an hour after nine years... And even then, I'm impressed that a 40 year old can live off of $14 an hour much less $8.25. I can't imagine he has much independence.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

September Unemployment - 5.1% (0.0%)

>= Age 25 by education level
CategoryPercentChangeYOY Change
Less than a high school diploma6.90.40.5
High school graduates, no college5.00.40.1
Some college or associate degree4.20.31.1
Bachelor's degree and higher2.50.20.4
Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 16.2% (0.3, 3.7 YOY)

Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment
Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs2.2
Job leavers0.5
Reentrants1.6
New entrants0.5
Let's add Table A-12 - Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment
WeeksChangeYOY Change
Average Duration26.21.45.9
Median Duration11.40.40.9
Last edited by Isgrimnur on Fri Oct 09, 2015 9:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by stessier »

coopasonic wrote:
stessier wrote:I would be interested in seeing the data that a good cook at KFC earned $15-17/hr.
I read that as a good cook makes that money, not a good cook at KFC. I'd imagine you'd have to manage the KFC to make $15-17/hr.
I mean, I would agree that has to be the logical thought, but that is not how the article presents it.
He never did; nine years later, the only raises Kemp, 44, has seen have been the ones required by state law. He earns $8.25, the state’s current minimum wage.
That implies an impression that someone in that position should be making the previously stated amounts. I don't see that happening. Now if the article had said after gaining experience at KFC, the guy moved to a higher end restaurant and after 9 years, was still making minimum wage, I would agree there is a problem.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

LordMortis wrote:I don't think with 9 years of seniority $14 an hour is too much to ask to make at fast food.
Starting at $6.50/hour, a 8.9% raise per year would get you to $14 at the start of year 10. If making an 8.9% raise per year in fast food is typical, then I'm in the wrong line of business.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by stessier »

Isgrimnur wrote:
LordMortis wrote:I don't think with 9 years of seniority $14 an hour is too much to ask to make at fast food.
Starting at $6.50/hour, a 8.9% raise per year would get you to $14 at the start of year 10. If making an 8.9% raise per year in fast food is typical, then I'm in the wrong line of business.
Only if you are more concerned with percent increase over actual dollars. Although, I guess if you were willing to put in 40 years and the percent remained constant, you could be doing pretty well the last decade or so.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by LawBeefaroni »

LordMortis wrote:And even then, I'm impressed that a 40 year old can live off of $14 an hour much less $8.25. I can't imagine he has much independence.
Going to guess he doesn't live north of Lake street.
stessier wrote: Now if the article had said after gaining experience at KFC, the guy moved to a higher end restaurant and after 9 years, was still making minimum wage, I would agree there is a problem.
Unfortunately for him, higher end places aren't going to hire a 40-year-old with experience at KFC. They'll take their chances with a younger person who they can mold and who will probably accept a lower salary. Having 9 years of KFC on your resume at a higher end place is a detriment, which is too bad because that's some serious dedication.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by stessier »

I didn't say it had to be a direct stepping stone. Ever see the movie Chef? Start there, then make millions! :)
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by LawBeefaroni »

stessier wrote:I didn't say it had to be a direct stepping stone. Ever see the movie Chef? Start there, then make millions! :)
Never saw that one.

I guess there's always the Everton Stonehead career path.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by LordMortis »

Isgrimnur wrote:
LordMortis wrote:I don't think with 9 years of seniority $14 an hour is too much to ask to make at fast food.
Starting at $6.50/hour, a 8.9% raise per year would get you to $14 at the start of year 10. If making an 8.9% raise per year in fast food is typical, then I'm in the wrong line of business.
When I was working child labor, it was not uncommon to get to go from $3.35 to $5.50 after a year. That's like a 8000% a year raise.
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stessier
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by stessier »

It's quite an entertaining little movie...but I like Jon Favreau. And not really comparable as he was a top Chef who starts a food truck, but I could see being a sous chef for the guy after 9 years at a KFC as it was a lot closer to that than a 5 star restaurant.
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Isgrimnur
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

Ah, the American Dream!
Spoiler:
Go off on someone, get fired, slum it for a few months until someone swoops in as an angel investor to let you go back to what you wanted to do in the first place.
A bootstrap, rags-to-riches movie it ain't. I think it's more of a millennial dream career story than I thought at the time, and certainly not what we grew up with.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Isgrimnur
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

stessier wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:
LordMortis wrote:I don't think with 9 years of seniority $14 an hour is too much to ask to make at fast food.
Starting at $6.50/hour, a 8.9% raise per year would get you to $14 at the start of year 10. If making an 8.9% raise per year in fast food is typical, then I'm in the wrong line of business.
Only if you are more concerned with percent increase over actual dollars. Although, I guess if you were willing to put in 40 years and the percent remained constant, you could be doing pretty well the last decade or so.
I'll sign a penny-doubling work contract with you for a 30-month, monthly doubling term.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by coopasonic »

Those last few deliveries are going to be *really* heavy. I find it unlikely he's going to be able to find enough pennies anyway.

http://www.kokogiak.com/megapenny/nine.asp
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

The drumbeat begins.
This week was unusually busy on the tech-media circuit in Silicon Valley, as several publications — Fortune, Re/code, and Vanity Fair — hosted events featuring big-name tech execs and investors.

We talked to a lot of these execs, as well as the quieter folks behind the scenes, at the events and the parties afterward, and a common theme shone through: Everybody agrees we're in a tech bubble.

At the Code/Mobile conference in Half Moon Bay, there was a lot of chatter about "on-demand" companies such as Uber, Postmates, and Instacart. These companies sprung up over the last few years to provide conveniences at the touch of a smartphone button to busy professionals with disposable income.

But investors are worried that these companies have been subsidized by easy VC money for too long. In many cases, their customer and usage numbers are going up because they're using VC money to expand into new cities, but customer-acquisition costs remain high and many of them are bleeding money. Worse, mature markets like San Francisco and New York are starting to see some scary, weak customer-adoption numbers, which bodes poorly for these companies as they expand into other regions.
I didn't figure we'd repeat the 2000 crash from the tech industry, but there's not many other trigger industries on the radar after the real estate crash.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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