How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

[Freezer-TPF-]

We received an email from the Big Cheese saying that the company is fine and has impeccable financials, nothing to worry about. So we've got that going for us, which is nice. But I'm concerned that my fiancée will have an even more difficult time finding a new job this year (academia is bad enough even in the best of times).

I have several large outlays planned for the next six to eight months (car, computer, moving, wedding, travel), so I'm not sure whether that's good or bad. It might be a little easier negotiating on things like the car, and things like the PC and travel can be delayed if needed. I'm used to living below my means and delaying purchases.

That being said, I really don't want to look at my upcoming 401k statement.

[Carpet_pissr]

A feel good news on how this might be time to buy stocks

Don't.

Until the TED spread (the difference between LIBOR and short term US treasuries) narrows, there will be no improvement. The bond market always preceeds a true bull equity market.

You just taught me something, ND. Awesome! Here's a link if anyone is interested:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND" target="_blank

/OT

[The Meal]

But I'm concerned that my fiancée will have an even more difficult time finding a new job this year (academia is bad enough even in the best of times).

Isn't academia good in the worst of times, though? I know lots of college students were reupping (myself included) when the economy went in the tank in the early 90's. You'd think that'd be good for the schools and good for the folks wanting to work for the schools. Especially relatively young (cheap) new hires.

[Matrix]

Lol Noxicious dog, you picked the sacrcastic part of my post, not sure if you read my write up on that article. There should be no buying happening at the moment. Good point with LIBOR by the way, infact, next to fall expectations are high for mutual funds. Here is an article on our consumer spending.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/ ... dChannel=0" target="_blank
To keep in mind, our GDP is 70% consumer spending

[LordMortis]

But I'm concerned that my fiancée will have an even more difficult time finding a new job this year (academia is bad enough even in the best of times).

Isn't academia good in the worst of times, though? I know lots of college students were reupping (myself included) when the economy went in the tank in the early 90's. You'd think that'd be good for the schools and good for the folks wanting to work for the schools. Especially relatively young (cheap) new hires.

I'd think between people going back and people not wanting to leave that things would go up, depending on how bad it gets. Now, all of the sudden, graduating $200k in debt doesn't look like the roses it used to. Heck, I to a cheap school when school was still cheap. I only took out one semseter of loans, for the semester I couldn't work and I graduated 8k in debt for that one semester and that 8k took me two years to pay off. Are people going to be more gun shy about loans for the near term? Will they be able to get them? How garaunteed is the garaunteed federal stafford loan, even if it is non subsidized?

[Kraken]

But I'm concerned that my fiancée will have an even more difficult time finding a new job this year (academia is bad enough even in the best of times).

Isn't academia good in the worst of times, though? I know lots of college students were reupping (myself included) when the economy went in the tank in the early 90's. You'd think that'd be good for the schools and good for the folks wanting to work for the schools. Especially relatively young (cheap) new hires.

Depends on whether an institution has a big fat endowment, or relies on government subsidies. The public universities are going to feel a pinch, as are smaller institutions. Big private schools are pretty insulated from the business cycle. Locally, Boston University has imposed a hiring freeze. Our governor is going to announce $1.5B in budget cuts this afternoon, which surely must worry U-Mass. It's business as usual at MIT and Harvard.

From what little I know, getting hired by the top schools is as much about whom you know as your credentials. Hopefully Mrs Freezer has some friends or mentors in high places.

[Enough]

Well the hard times have spread to my workplace at a nonprofit housed in a university. Our boss just gathered everyone together on my team and warned us funding may not be adequate to pay all of our salaries as of Jan. She's already voluntarily cutting back her hours to as much as 50% time in Dec and a bit less the two months before so we don't take a hit just yet. I cannot express how cool my boss is and how thankful I am to work for her. It also helps that my team's functions are mission critical ones, but I bet all of us will feel the pain as of next year if things don't get better quickly. It just sucks.


Gah, time to start marketing my photography more aggressively.

[Hamlet3145]

Re: academic jobs, it mostly has to do with what one teaches. I get more sections of business communication thrown at me than I know what to do with. Advanced creative writing? Not so much.

I should be just fine unless the government cuts student loans and causes the the student population to shrink.

[LordMortis]

Well the hard times have spread to my workplace at a nonprofit housed in a university. Our boss just gathered everyone together on my team and warned us funding may not be adequate to pay all of our salaries as of Jan. She's already voluntarily cutting back her hours to as much as 50% time in Dec and a bit less the two months before so we don't take a hit just yet. I cannot express how cool my boss is and how thankful I am to work for her. It also helps that my team's functions are mission critical ones, but I bet all of us will feel the pain as of next year if things don't get better quickly. It just sucks.


Gah, time to start marketing my photography more aggressively.

I don't think I want to click on this thread any more.

[Freezer-TPF-]

But I'm concerned that my fiancée will have an even more difficult time finding a new job this year (academia is bad enough even in the best of times).

Isn't academia good in the worst of times, though? I know lots of college students were reupping (myself included) when the economy went in the tank in the early 90's. You'd think that'd be good for the schools and good for the folks wanting to work for the schools. Especially relatively young (cheap) new hires.

Depends on whether an institution has a big fat endowment, or relies on government subsidies. The public universities are going to feel a pinch, as are smaller institutions. Big private schools are pretty insulated from the business cycle. Locally, Boston University has imposed a hiring freeze. Our governor is going to announce $1.5B in budget cuts this afternoon, which surely must worry U-Mass. It's business as usual at MIT and Harvard.

From what little I know, getting hired by the top schools is as much about whom you know as your credentials. Hopefully Mrs Freezer has some friends or mentors in high places.

Ironrod is on the right track. In my experience, economic issues commonly lead to hiring freezes at the university level. Many schools already cut corners by relying on adjunct part-time faculty rather than hiring more tenure-track professors. I imagine tougher times will just further increase the adjunct hiring approach.

I'd guess that the well-endowed (ahem) schools will also feel the hurt, depending on how their funds are invested.

Oh, and the "Mrs Freezer" freaked me out a little bit. Thanks for that.

[Matrix]

Another drop of 733, as i said yesterday that once data will start to come out of how bad it is, it will drop. Thing is , the data Just started to come out. Which means we will see more drops in the near future. I am actuality surprised rally wasn't longer, i thought it will last at least a week.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081015/ap_ ... all_street" target="_blank



To those who was making fun of my sliver purchase, those coins that i posted link before, are sold out and that place no longer offers them. Now they have only bars or more expensive coins in neighborhood of 20$ per ounce. PS i am not saying they are great investment, but they are certainly my hedge of worse come to worse.

[LawBeefaroni]

To those who was making fun of my sliver purchase, those coins that i posted link before, are sold out and that place no longer offers them. Now they have only bars or more expensive coins in neighborhood of 20$ per ounce. PS i am not saying they are great investment, but they are certainly my hedge of worse come to worse.

I don't recall anyone making fun of it. There were questions about the premium for the coins/bars (now at $20/troy ounce, that's nearly a 100% premium to today's $10.32 price) and how it could be used as currency in a worst case scenario.

The US mint also stopped selling silver coins. I will say that there has been a run on the stuff.

[Matrix]

I bought it at 15.70 , at the time it was around 12, so my premium was 25% , which i gladly paid. I checked that site again later today, all silver under 30$ an ounce was gone. Right now spot rate is 10.18, but there is no way in heck anyone can buy physical silver for that price, buy shares, sure, but not the physical.

Worst of my worst is the Argentina scenario video which i posted, i really don't think that will happen. But i much gladlier will take loss on my silver but feel that i am fine, then not do that and wait till this crazies will filter itself out.

[Brian]

The word came down yesterday at the monthly company meeting that they will be closing the Seattle office. It's a smaller office relatively speaking with only seventeen employees but it's still pretty rough.

During the announcement the CEO choked up and couldn't finish the statement. One of the other execs had to jump in to complete the announcement.

One of the people in the Seattle office is in our department but he will likely be moving to the Portland office so hopefully he'll be OK.

I work in the corporate headquarters so there's no chance of that office closing. Also, in the last quarter, our department passed our sales goals for the first time since the department was created five years ago.

This next quarter has the potential to be fairly good for us as well since most IT/Data Centers have already had their budgets allocated for this quarter before the recent collapse and they'll likely want to spend the money while they still have it.

The next two quarters though, well, they'll probably be pretty rough.

[LawBeefaroni]

A feel good news on how this might be time to buy stocks

Don't.

Until the TED spread (the difference between LIBOR and short term US treasuries) narrows, there will be no improvement. The bond market always preceeds a true bull equity market.

Everyone's favorite Oracle is promoting stocks.

So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.

All I know is there are some sick valuations out there. GOOG hit $309 yesterday.

[Carpet_pissr]

What company?

The word came down yesterday at the monthly company meeting that they will be closing the Seattle office. It's a smaller office relatively speaking with only seventeen employees but it's still pretty rough.

During the announcement the CEO choked up and couldn't finish the statement. One of the other execs had to jump in to complete the announcement.

One of the people in the Seattle office is in our department but he will likely be moving to the Portland office so hopefully he'll be OK.

I work in the corporate headquarters so there's no chance of that office closing. Also, in the last quarter, our department passed our sales goals for the first time since the department was created five years ago.

This next quarter has the potential to be fairly good for us as well since most IT/Data Centers have already had their budgets allocated for this quarter before the recent collapse and they'll likely want to spend the money while they still have it.

The next two quarters though, well, they'll probably be pretty rough.

[RunningMn9]

Bloody hell. I've gotten like 16 "Goodbye" emails. Depressing. Even more so for them of course, but still - it blows. Too many friends leaving today.

[Brian]

What company?

I'd rather not say since the press release hasn't gone out.

It shouldn't be too tough to find since I'm pretty sure I've mentioned it before.

[Matrix]

I wouldn't trust Warren BUffet on this, even in his interview on Charly Rose, he was a bit too excited about everything that FED did. He knows that his wealth going for a down turn, so sure he will be promoting stocks. Problem is they will be dropping for a while. I guess eh is trying to restore confidence, except that same confidence is not base on facts. here is Paul Kragmen on economy, the same guy who won this monday Nobel Prize for Economy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opini ... ugman.html" target="_blank

[LawBeefaroni]

Bloody hell. I've gotten like 16 "Goodbye" emails. Depressing. Even more so for them of course, but still - it blows. Too many friends leaving today.

Sucks, RM9.

Sorry for everyone going through this, on either end.

[noxiousdog]

I wouldn't trust Warren BUffet on this, even in his interview on Charly Rose, he was a bit too excited about everything that FED did. He knows that his wealth going for a down turn, so sure he will be promoting stocks. Problem is they will be dropping for a while. I guess eh is trying to restore confidence, except that same confidence is not base on facts. here is Paul Kragmen on economy, the same guy who won this monday Nobel Prize for Economy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opini ... ugman.html" target="_blank

I agree with Matrix on this. Buffett has abilities that we don't have.

1) No matter what his investments, he can wait them out. In addition they won't be a significant portion of his, or Berkshire's, net worth.
2) If those investments are in danger, he can prop them up with equity infusions.

That being said, there's a lot of good buys out there. I just think the short term need for cash outweighs the current potential upside when risk is considered on both sides.

[Kraken]

Another favorite restaurant has closed after 10 years in business. Reggio was an Italian place that held quarterly wine-tasting dinners, which we attended a few times back when we could afford luxuries like that. We had a few birthday and anniversary dinners there and got to know the owner a little. Their pizza was excellent and affordable. The place was always busy whenever we went, so its closing is a real surprise. It will be missed.

That's the second local landmark restaurant to go under in the past month.

[stessier]

I wouldn't trust Warren BUffet on this, even in his interview on Charly Rose, he was a bit too excited about everything that FED did. He knows that his wealth going for a down turn, so sure he will be promoting stocks. Problem is they will be dropping for a while. I guess eh is trying to restore confidence, except that same confidence is not base on facts. here is Paul Kragmen on economy, the same guy who won this monday Nobel Prize for Economy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opini ... ugman.html" target="_blank

I agree with Matrix on this. Buffett has abilities that we don't have.

I heard yesterday (but can't find a link now) that Buffet has been completely in cash (US Treasuries) for 6 years. That is why it is such a big deal that he is promoting stocks. I'll keep looking for a link.

[Zarathud]

Warrent Buffet lives by the old maxim, buy low and sell high. Buy quality businesses with good management where the market dismisses its underlying value, and provide funding to hold and grow those businesses over the long-term.

He hasn't really changed his investment strategies, it's just a good time to buy "good" stocks and a horrible time to hold US Treasuries. Warren Buffet does have the luxury of waiting for the long-term, because he has plenty to feed himself in the short and medium term. But Buffet has no need to drive the markets, except to point out that cooler heads will see the underlying bargains while everyone else over reacts.

If we're going into full-out depression, even those sitting on piles of money are fuxxored anyway.

[Matrix]

We certainly right now entered a more calmer tide, where company are not collapsing every few minutes. The questions is, will it stay this way for a while and just slowly go down, or will few serious news unbalance the drop economy even faster. Lots of news of people cutting back on employees. Friend of mine works as manger in DHL (delivery company), and they just initiated second wave of cost cutting aka Firing. Also he said, the amount of orders have dropped almost double from a year ago. He wasnt worried about his position just few month ago, now he does.
Main concerns, while credit starting to unfreeze a bit, it was already tight before September collapse, so chances are, we wont see easily available credit for a long time. Lack of credit affects company, venture capitalist investments are being cut back on, and most importantly business that depend on credit and lending, cant get credit.

[Kraken]

Friend of mine works as manger in DHL (delivery company), and they just initiated second wave of cost cutting aka Firing. Also he said, the amount of orders have dropped almost double from a year ago.

Not to case aspersions upon your friend, but DHL has a terrible reputation here. Nobody would be sorry to see them go -- one might argue that eliminating inferior competitors is the creative side of recessions. UPS and FedEx both announced rate increases of about 7% for next year (partially offset by reductions in their cost-of-fuel variable).

Shippers like DHL as a lower-cost alternative to the big boys. I've never met a recipient who would prefer them.

[Blonco]

I got word on Friday that I have to lay off 8 out of 10 guys this week. I was able to choose one person to keep and my boss chose the other. I have been really sick to my stomach this weekend. One guy is on his honeymoon, another's wife is due any day, and another guy's wife just lost her job. I know business isnt pretty, but it sure does blow to have to do this.

[Carpet_pissr]

Friend of mine works as manger in DHL (delivery company), and they just initiated second wave of cost cutting aka Firing. Also he said, the amount of orders have dropped almost double from a year ago.

Not to case aspersions upon your friend, but DHL has a terrible reputation here. Nobody would be sorry to see them go -- one might argue that eliminating inferior competitors is the creative side of recessions. UPS and FedEx both announced rate increases of about 7% for next year (partially offset by reductions in their cost-of-fuel variable).

Shippers like DHL as a lower-cost alternative to the big boys. I've never met a recipient who would prefer them.

I've always found that interesting. They do have a bad rep HERE, but 9/10 of my intl clients much prefer them over anybody else, including Fedex. They insist they are much more reliable.

[Kraken]

Friend of mine works as manger in DHL (delivery company), and they just initiated second wave of cost cutting aka Firing. Also he said, the amount of orders have dropped almost double from a year ago.

Not to case aspersions upon your friend, but DHL has a terrible reputation here. Nobody would be sorry to see them go -- one might argue that eliminating inferior competitors is the creative side of recessions. UPS and FedEx both announced rate increases of about 7% for next year (partially offset by reductions in their cost-of-fuel variable).

Shippers like DHL as a lower-cost alternative to the big boys. I've never met a recipient who would prefer them.

I've always found that interesting. They do have a bad rep HERE, but 9/10 of my intl clients much prefer them over anybody else, including Fedex. They insist they are much more reliable.

Maybe DHL's commercial delivery performance (B2B) is better than their residential service.

[Matrix]

Regardless of service, that's lost jobs. A lot of them. In better times those guys might have switched to Fedex or UPS, but now, its very unlikely those 2 are expanding. Probably will be cutting their own staff too.

[LordMortis]

Maybe DHL's commercial delivery performance (B2B) is better than their residential service.

Ancedotally, they are the worst for timing if that's what you mean as reliable but they are also the cheapest. We don't really have things get lost, so I can't say much about that. Fed Ex has delivered a few of packages to the wrong street over the years and for some reason, some one there signs for it and then calls us.

[Lee]

Regardless of service, that's lost jobs. A lot of them. In better times those guys might have switched to Fedex or UPS, but now, its very unlikely those 2 are expanding. Probably will be cutting their own staff too.

With Xmas coming up, I would say you are probably wrong on that. I bet they are going to be hiring in the next couple of months.

[GungHo]

Havent really noticed to be honest, at least my household is doing ok(actually got an out-of-the-blue 10% raise last week, and the wife got 25% ) but I know my parents are hurting pretty badly. Dad said he's gonna have to go back to work, they've lost so much of their retirement. SUcks.

[Matrix]

lee, lets hope i am wrong. In all likelyhood, This is will be very weak Christmas season. What's alarming is that DHL cut so many workers before Christmas season and not after.

[Two Sheds]

Was out of the office yesterday and came in today to hear about a meeting we had.

a) Boss is ending our pension plans and giving us a check to put into our own IRAs
b) We're "rolling back" our raises that we got in August
c) We may go to a 4-day work week
d) The word "layoff" was mentioned

Terrific way to start the week, I'll tell ya. The raises and the 4-day week thing would screw me, but not kill me. I had planned to pay off my student loans by early 2011, and this just pushes that further out. Losing my job, however, would clearly suck a lot.

[Matrix]

Deflation, here we come.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/ ... me=topNews" target="_blank


and what it means to other countries
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1224632 ... lenews_wsj" target="_blank
(you need membership for this, so here is cut and paste)
"
As global stock markets have plunged in recent months, so has the value of almost everything else, from Mexico's peso to the price of oil. That's left some companies that made big wagers on the direction prices were headed reeling from unexpected losses.

Throughout Latin America, companies are telling investors they have lost millions, in some cases billions, of dollars due to foreign-exchange gambles that, in some cases, had little to do with their core businesses.

Losses from bad-currency bets are ricocheting through the world's major developing economies, including India and Korea. Officials at Citic Pacific Ltd., a Hong Kong-listed conglomerate backed in part by the Chinese government, have accused the company's finance director of making unauthorized bets related to the Australian dollar, resulting in nearly $2 billion of foreign-exchange losses.

For now, however, such losses appear to be most widespread in Brazil and Mexico. In Brazil, the growing list of blue-chip casualties includes paper-pulp giant Aracruz Celulose SA and industrial conglomerate Grupo Votorantim. In Mexico, trading in tortilla maker Gruma's stock was halted earlier this month after its potential losses mounted to $684 million.

The surprise disclosures have sent stock prices tumbling, and regulators in both countries are investigating whether companies adequately disclosed their trading risks to investors.

Some local reports have speculated that the damage in Brazil alone could exceed $30 billion and may affect two hundred companies.

"We really don't have the details yet, and it's definitely not clear where the losses are. There are a lot of transparency issues," says Alexander Carpenter, senior vice president for Latin America at Moody's Investors Service, which has issued a flurry of credit downgrades and warnings across the region.

The bad bets were made using currency derivatives -- contracts tied to the value of the U.S. dollar. Companies lost badly when the dollar shot up in value starting in early September as investors cashed out of investments in emerging markets, fleeing to safer havens. And as companies raced to close out their positions they forced local currencies to tumble still further.

Latin American central banks, seeing risks to their economies, sold billions of dollars from their reserves to currency markets to prop up their currencies and cushion the blow from derivatives losses.

Mexico alone burned through about 13% of its international currency reserves. Brazil's government is considering extending loans to affected companies.

"The companies that bet and lost will have to face up to their responsibilities," Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said recently as corporate losses mounted. "Obviously, what Brazil will always be disposed to do is create conditions so that the financial system can lend."

In Mexico, authorities said they are investigating whether Comercial Mexicana and other companies properly disclosed the currency bets that resulted in investor losses. Under Mexican law, failure to disclose certain transactions could result in fines, and in some rare cases, criminal charges...

Some bankers predict the losses will prove manageable. Marcos Lisboa, executive director of risk and internal controls at Unibanco in Brazil, said there are problems "but nothing like the order of magnitude people are worried about."...

Companies appear to have been lulled into making risky bets, perhaps without fully understanding them. Both Mexico's peso and Brazil's real have strengthened steadily against the dollar in recent years, thanks to high commodity prices and record foreign investment. Few thought a turnabout was likely.

Executives at Comercial Mexicana, whose stores sell digital cameras, TVs and other imported products, had protected itself against exchange-rate fluctuations by buying up dollars on futures markets. But, in recent months, with the peso's continuing rise, that insurance proved costly.

So, starting during the summer, Comercial Mexicana's treasury department stopped buying dollars as insurance and instead began laying bets against the U.S. currency, according to people familiar with the matter.

"They got into a comfort zone, and tried to make money on the appreciation of the peso," says Nicolas Olea, an executive with KPMG in Mexico City.

The retailer, along with other companies, made the bets using currency contracts sold by big banks, including J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Barclays PLC, both of which declined to comment.

Under the deals, the banks offered financing and currency trades at favorable rates. But there was a hitch. If the U.S. dollar strengthened beyond a certain threshold, then the companies would have to sell dollars at a loss. In some cases, the contracts had triggers that doubled the number of dollars the companies owed.

Comercial Mexicana purchased the contracts from five different banks. At first, the deals were profit makers.

But when the company's finance chief, Francisco Martinez de la Vega, returned from a two-week European vacation on Oct. 1, he found a situation spiraling out of control.

By then, investors panicked over the widening financial crisis had begun pulling money out of Mexico and other emerging markets. Since Aug. 1, the peso has dropped 24% against the dollar, and in October careened through its biggest daily drops since a 1994 currency crisis.

Comercial Mexicana suddenly faced huge losses. Mr. de la Vega had to call in bankers from Credit Suisse over the weekend of Oct. 4 to help him analyze the situation. The total cost to close the position: $1.4 billion.

Later that week, Commercial Mexicana filed for bankruptcy, unable to pay the debt. In a note released to markets, the 76-year-old retailer said it would seek to keep its 221 stores in business.

"Operating fundamentals are the most solid they have been in several years," the company said. "

[LawBeefaroni]

Hungary is protecting.

BUDAPEST, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Hungary's central bank on Wednesday raised interest rates by 300 basis points [3 percentage points] to 11.50 percent NBHI in an emergency move after its forint currency fell close to an all-time low against the euro.

...

Analysts said with the massive rate hike the central bank had shown it would defend its inflation target of 3 percent, but said that it would pay for the move with lower growth just as it is emerging from a two-year slump

Commodities are dropping.

NEW YORK (AP) — Gold and copper prices tumbled sharply Tuesday after the dollar gained ground against the euro, knocking a key peg of support from under precious metals and other commodities.

There is a lot going on globally. It's too early and too close to call anything.

[Matrix]

Some of my thoughts on where all this heading. I have been soaking myself in economic information spending on average about 4 hours a day in the past month and half (yah its good to be self employed) stydying, following and learning all i can about economy (not just US ,but global)
We are no where near bottom, credit crisis is getting worse as no one lending. Credit cards starting to cut back on credit lines. US, will weather this economic storm much better then developing countries. This is not to say that it wont get really bad. Economy was artificially inflated with mortgage and refinancing, and it will slide down. Estimation is another 15-20%, this under current conditions, i am not sure what will be our conditions in 6 month. Safest investment right now is to hold you cash, prices will be dropping on everything, as there is no more easy credit. Stock market is worst investment right now, due to volatility and its probably will stay like that for at least next few month. There will be no good news for a while aside from google reporting profit, mainly because people pulling out of TV and print advertising to a more cost efficient and trackable advertising. Developing markets are also overinflated, and it all has to come down. Some baltic countries (Hungary,Ukraine, Estonie,etc) are as leveraged as american consumers, but with no Feds to bail out. The bail out is also not a saving grace, since money still will have to be reapaid, or wont if we default. Which we will, but not any time soon, since most economies are based on dollar evaluation. Right now it is our saving grace, that most other governments hold our Treasuries (aka we owe them) and they will keep proping us down, because if we go down, everything else goes down.

We are still not out of the wood work with financials, with Wamu reporting 24 billion loss for 3Q, fear will escalate among investors. Most sectors contracting, including tech sector.

[Matrix]

Hungary is protecting.

BUDAPEST, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Hungary's central bank on Wednesday raised interest rates by 300 basis points [3 percentage points] to 11.50 percent NBHI in an emergency move after its forint currency fell close to an all-time low against the euro.

...

Analysts said with the massive rate hike the central bank had shown it would defend its inflation target of 3 percent, but said that it would pay for the move with lower growth just as it is emerging from a two-year slump

Commodities are dropping.

NEW YORK (AP) — Gold and copper prices tumbled sharply Tuesday after the dollar gained ground against the euro, knocking a key peg of support from under precious metals and other commodities.

There is a lot going on globally. It's too early and too close to call anything.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10 ... s-squeeze/" target="_blank
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9da86a32-9f08 ... 07658.html" target="_blank
Its spiraling down, i can safely call deflation. Since right now there is huge lack of dollars, and writing down losses and credit squeeze adding to more desire for dollars. Reason why we will be fine (and by fine i mean, crappy but better off then most)

[Little Raven]

We are no where near bottom, credit crisis is getting worse as no one lending.

We may or may not be near the bottom, but I think the credit situation is actually getting marginally better.

After a few tumultuous weeks where the financial system was at the brink of breakdown, confidence seems to be returning. This was evidenced by a decline in the London interbank offered rate, which dropped to 3.83%, on Tuesday, from Monday's 4.06%. Another measure of improved conditions was the Treasury over eurodollar spread, the difference between three-month dollar Libor and three-month U.S. Treasury bill yields. That fell to around 250 basis points, the lowest in a month. The greater the TED spread, the more investors fear exposure to the financial markets.

But while banks are becoming more comfortable about lending to each other -- probably the result of a spate of government bailouts and other actions to support world banking systems (See "Rate Cuts Around The World"), investors keep pouring money into safe-haven government-bond investments.

However, given that the credit market had all but seized earlier, 'marginally better' is still pretty grim...and certainly nowhere near what we've become accustomed to.

And there does seem to be more bad news coming down the pipe. Hopefully Bernanke's got a bazooka he hasn't told us about yet.