Kentucky Derby Picks

Everything else!

Moderators: Bakhtosh, EvilHomer3k

User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70101
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LordMortis »

wa wa wa. I get nothing. That'll learn me to put up more money than just playing around.
User avatar
dedewhale
Posts: 2958
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 9:50 am
Location: NJ

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by dedewhale »

Loduca picked the winner. He knows his stuff. Me on the other hand....

Did hit the race before for a very nice payout ...took jersey joe bravo.
User avatar
Tscott
Posts: 5894
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 2:25 am

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Tscott »

I wasn't so lucky this year. My exacta picks came in 2nd and 3rd.
She's the puzzle piece behind the couch that makes the sky complete.
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70101
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LordMortis »

I won pretty big last year, like $700 on $40 in bets or something. I'm thinking I'm down for regretting dropping $56 this year. This is looking like my bet:

$1 Exacta box

4 1
4 5
4 6
4 7
4 16
4 20
5 1
5 6
5 7
5 16
5 20
16 1
16 6
16 7
16 20
20 1
20 6
20 7

$2 Win

1

$5 Show

1
6
7
20
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70101
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LordMortis »

And the final bet is a 7 horse $1 exacta box bet for $42

1 4 5 6 7 16 20

And $5 to show 1 and 7

Most of my horse odds had gotten better since yesterday. Ah well.
User avatar
xwraith
Posts: 1085
Joined: Mon Mar 21, 2005 6:42 pm

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by xwraith »

LordMortis wrote:And the final bet is a 7 horse $1 exacta box bet for $42

1 4 5 6 7 16 20
I take it Commanding Curve created some havoc with this.
I forgot to call it "a box of pure malevolent evil, a purveyor of
insidious insanity, an eldritch manifestation that would make Bill
Gates let out a low whistle of admiration," but it's all those, too.
-- David Gerard, Re: [Mediawiki-l] Wikitext grammar, 2010.08.06
User avatar
mori
Posts: 4589
Joined: Sat Dec 11, 2004 11:53 pm
Location: Edge of Darkness

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by mori »

I cannot believe NBC made an entire day out of this through their networks. Did we really need Weir and Lapinski for Christ's sake? Just need a 1/2 hour lead in, the race, and 15 minutes post race. Did not have any picks. There were no roan horses so I did not get excited about the race.
User avatar
Isgrimnur
Posts: 82088
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Chookity pok
Contact:

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Isgrimnur »

The hockey game was over, and they don't have a TV agreement with MLB. What else was there?
It's almost as if people are the problem.
User avatar
mori
Posts: 4589
Joined: Sat Dec 11, 2004 11:53 pm
Location: Edge of Darkness

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by mori »

The Everton vs Man City match for one. That was pushed to CNBC.
Jeff V
Posts: 36414
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 7:17 pm
Location: Nowhere you want to be.

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Jeff V »

Isgrimnur wrote:The hockey game was over, and they don't have a TV agreement with MLB. What else was there?
It was a sports-free day. But then again, that describes most days between now and football season.

As old as I am, I'm still too young to ever be interested in horse racing.
Black Lives Matter
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70101
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LordMortis »

xwraith wrote:
LordMortis wrote:And the final bet is a 7 horse $1 exacta box bet for $42

1 4 5 6 7 16 20
I take it Commanding Curve created some havoc with this.
ahyup.
User avatar
Isgrimnur
Posts: 82088
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Chookity pok
Contact:

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Isgrimnur »

Let the Triple Crown hype train commence. California Chrome takes the Preakness.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
User avatar
disarm
Posts: 4951
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 6:50 pm
Location: Hartford, CT
Contact:

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by disarm »

There is a good reason so few horses win the Triple Crown though. The Belmont is a much longer race and there aren't many horses that win shorter races that can hold out for that long. It would be great to see another name added to the history books though...
Last edited by disarm on Sun May 18, 2014 9:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
triggercut
Posts: 13807
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:24 pm
Location: Man those Samoans are a surly bunch.

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by triggercut »

Not only that, but it looks like a full field for the Belmont this year. You've got some excellent horses that skipped the Preak, plus the 2-3-4 horses that ran today all heading north.

California Chrome is clearly the class of the group, but you have to wonder how much of him Espinoza used in the final stretch to put away Ride On Curlin today.

Still...someone please tell me the marketing folks at Google are all over this. They have to be, right?
"It's my manner, sir. It looks insubordinate, but it isn't, really."
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70101
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LordMortis »

I did well last year but the payoffs were weak, I as I suspect they will be this year unless there is a big upset.

I picked the trifecta and it paid a tiny tiny amount on $.50 box.

I won't make it to Derby Day lunch this year because I have to have to pay someone to put in a new dishwasher. So here are my two day early bets I am sending to the track tomorrow:

$5 Exacta Box 11-13
$5 Show 18
$5 Show 8
$1 Trifecta Box 11-13-18
$1 Trifecta Box 11-13-8
$.50 Trifecta Box 11-13-3
$.50 Trifecta Box 11-13-2
$.50 Trifecta Box 11-13-16

For a total of $41 that I shouldn't spend this year.

I may call in changes when I get home tonight. Someone set up the firewall so we can't surf gambling sites. I won't mention LordMortis' name. So I couldn't do things like look at jockey track records and such and let that weigh in on my opinion like I usually do.
User avatar
Grundbegriff
Posts: 22277
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 3:46 am
Location: http://baroquepotion.com
Contact:

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Grundbegriff »

I like Gary Stevens on Mor Spirit. And maybe Destin because Castellano.
Jeff V
Posts: 36414
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 7:17 pm
Location: Nowhere you want to be.

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Jeff V »

:::checks driver's license::: Nope, still not old enough to be into horse racing.
Black Lives Matter
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70101
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LordMortis »

LordMortis wrote:I did well last year but the payoffs were weak, I as I suspect they will be this year unless there is a big upset.

I picked the trifecta and it paid a tiny tiny amount on $.50 box.

I won't make it to Derby Day lunch this year because I have to have to pay someone to put in a new dishwasher. So here are my two day early bets I am sending to the track tomorrow:

$5 Exacta Box 11-13
$5 Show 18
$5 Show 8
$1 Trifecta Box 11-13-18
$1 Trifecta Box 11-13-8
$.50 Trifecta Box 11-13-3
$.50 Trifecta Box 11-13-2
$.50 Trifecta Box 11-13-16

For a total of $41 that I shouldn't spend this year.

I may call in changes when I get home tonight. Someone set up the firewall so we can't surf gambling sites. I won't mention LordMortis' name. So I couldn't do things like look at jockey track records and such and let that weigh in on my opinion like I usually do.
Debated doing $.50 trifecta 11-13-the field. Would have cost $54 to win $40. Not a great take for the bet, but better than losing. The two horse was right there for the trifecta. Ah well.

$41 to win $75. I can't complain. I really thought it was going to be 13-11-18. That would have been close to $2000, I think.

Still, my derby record has been good to me.
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70101
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LordMortis »

Picks for 2017 have been chosen. Will make the wager tomorrow:

$1 Exacta Box 1-7-10-14-17
$5 Exacta Box 14-17
$5 Show 1
$5 Show 7
$5 Show 10
$.50 Trifecta Box 1-14-17
$.50 Trifecta Box 7-14-17
$.50 Trifecta Box 10-14-17

total wager $54

(I'll have to verify the horses are the numbers I think they are)
User avatar
Chaosraven
Posts: 20235
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 2:26 am

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Chaosraven »

LordMortis wrote:total wager $54
WELL???

Is dinner on you?

:horse: :horse: :horse:
"Where are you off to?"
"I don't know," Snufkin replied.
The door shut again and Snufkin entered his forest, with a hundred miles of silence ahead of him.

Sweet sweet meat come. -LordMortis
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70101
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LordMortis »

Nope. $54 to win $38 (and an $11 lunch) does not a free a meal make. I need to go back to a 7 horse field for an exacta and get rid of win/place/show bets. If I had played the the 7 horse exacta box with the four lead horse and my same three longer odds, it would have been $42 to $165 (adding the 5 and 8 horses) and then dinner would have been on me. Maybe that'll learn me for next year.

The thing with win place show is there is no big money there unless you play big money, which I don't have. So I bet to cover my bets and even though I usually "win" I've spread out so much money that I lose. Whereas except for last year, picking the exacta has always a nice little take when I hit for the ten or so years I've been doing this.
User avatar
Moliere
Posts: 12297
Joined: Sun Sep 03, 2006 10:57 am
Location: Walking through a desert land

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Moliere »

Need advice from the race experts here on who to pick for my top 3 finishers in the office pool.
"The world is suffering more today from the good people who want to mind other men's business than it is from the bad people who are willing to let everybody look after their own individual affairs." - Clarence Darrow
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70101
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LordMortis »

I usually have fun making a one week, learn everything I can about horse racing venture. This year, I'm wiped out this week, so it's not likely I'll be spending my post work time reading and studying like it's my job. It doesn't help that the odds were so with my picks that I picked well but my normal scatter shot approach to picking ended up making my wagers larger than my payout. And finally, they're about to shut down SE Michigans last track.

As far as I know, you want to start thinking about things seriously until Thursday anyway. They will have just selected horses and drawn posts a couple of hours ago, won't they?

Survey says!

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2773 ... tions-draw

If I had the energy, I'd start by looking at PP sheet tomorrow and study Jockeys at Churchill this year as well as the horses. Brisnet usually publishes a scaled back free version every year that should be available by now....

http://www.brisnet.com/content/2018/04/ ... ontenders/
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70101
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LordMortis »

Cross posting from an another site

I had no time and brain to prepare this year, so I says to myself this morning. I says "small, safe, covered favorites, for no more than $20"

I walk out with three $5 longshots to show in 9,15, and 19 and a six hours $.50 Trifecta box of 5,9,12,15,16,19. Not just a poor bet but one that excludes horses like 7.

Translation $75 in not very good bets. Stupid.

Withdrawal from head meds sucks.

Also moliere, I found this site today with regard to who's who in a general sort of way.

https://www.equibase.com/
User avatar
Moliere
Posts: 12297
Joined: Sun Sep 03, 2006 10:57 am
Location: Walking through a desert land

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Moliere »

Thanks! I don't know anything about horse racing. Similar to my March Madness brackets it will be mostly random.org or the advice of others.
"The world is suffering more today from the good people who want to mind other men's business than it is from the bad people who are willing to let everybody look after their own individual affairs." - Clarence Darrow
User avatar
Moliere
Posts: 12297
Joined: Sun Sep 03, 2006 10:57 am
Location: Walking through a desert land

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Moliere »

Texas woman turned $18 bet on Kentucky Derby into $1.2 million
Retama Park is a racecourse immediately outside San Antonio. They posted to their Facebook page Saturday that an Austin woman who was at their facility during the Derby placed an $18 bet on her pick of the top five horses. She got all five right, turning that $18 into $1.2 million!
"The world is suffering more today from the good people who want to mind other men's business than it is from the bad people who are willing to let everybody look after their own individual affairs." - Clarence Darrow
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70101
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LordMortis »

Nice. It was complete waste of $75 for me as I figured it would be. My head wasn't on straight and I make very poor decisions when my heads not on straight. I knew this going in and tole myself, you don't know anything, bet your $20. Pick the favorite to cover that $20 and play go ahead and me stupid with the rest. Essentially I should have played $15 on 7 to show and then "had fun" with the remaining $5 but again I make bad decision with a bad head space which is magnified by not preparing because I was in a bad head space.

Ah well.
User avatar
SimpleSimon
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2019 9:50 am

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by SimpleSimon »

Anyone going for the "Baffert Exacta" at Kentucky Derby 2019? 8-)

Trainer Bob Baffert has 2 horses in contention: Game Winner (current favorite) and Improbable.

Would be a fun bet. $2 worth the chance to have a great story for all the cocktail parties you attend. :dance:
User avatar
Jaymann
Posts: 19321
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:13 pm
Location: California

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Jaymann »

Welcome Simon! Fairly obscure thread for your first post, but it works.
Jaymann
]==(:::::::::::::>
Black Lives Matter
User avatar
LawBeefaroni
Forum Moderator
Posts: 55316
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:08 pm
Location: Urbs in Horto, outrageous taxes on everything

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LawBeefaroni »

SimpleSimon wrote: Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:13 am Anyone going for the "Baffert Exacta" at Kentucky Derby 2019? 8-)

Trainer Bob Baffert has 2 horses in contention: Game Winner (current favorite) and Improbable.

Would be a fun bet. $2 worth the chance to have a great story for all the cocktail parties you attend. :dance:
I may do a reverse Baffert: superfecta box with neither of his ponies.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

MYT
User avatar
SimpleSimon
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2019 9:50 am

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by SimpleSimon »

Lol, a reverse "Baffert" Superfecta box would be expensive.

$2 is all I have in my virtual piggy bank.

If he wins again this year, odds he'll update that 1980's power cut?
User avatar
SimpleSimon
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Apr 24, 2019 9:50 am

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by SimpleSimon »

Calculation for a Superfecta Box, assuming "non-Baffert" horses will be some number greater than 6 or 7? :?:

Found it in the reference section of this page. It's simple algebra, where H = number of horses and C = Cost per combination.

H x (H – 1) x (H – 2) x (H – 3) x C. 7 Non-Bafferts would be 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x $0.10 = $84 or $840 for $1!
Politely citing a source, if appropriate: https://www.sportsbetting3.com/kentucky ... ing#tables

Better take a 10 cent Superfecta or not pay rent for next month! :lol:

In contrast, $2 for a straight exacta or some amount well under $840 to box 'em.

I think PBS' Square One did a show on combinations. Am I dating myself yet? :ugeek:
User avatar
Isgrimnur
Posts: 82088
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Chookity pok
Contact:

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Isgrimnur »

I’m sure the betting world is all abuzz after the disqualification of the winner.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
User avatar
hitbyambulance
Posts: 10233
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 3:51 am
Location: Map Ref 47.6°N 122.35°W
Contact:

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by hitbyambulance »

Strutting Thunderthighs is gonna take the crown!!!!11
User avatar
Unagi
Posts: 26376
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2006 5:14 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Unagi »

Isgrimnur wrote: Sat May 04, 2019 7:36 pm I’m sure the betting world is all abuzz after the disqualification of the winner.
And that the 2nd place (/ new winner) was not actually affected by the first place winners disqualifying maneuver.

This is gonna be Really big to a couple horses that were cut off but didn't win.
User avatar
Jaymann
Posts: 19321
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:13 pm
Location: California

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Jaymann »

Country House was 65 - 1!
Jaymann
]==(:::::::::::::>
Black Lives Matter
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70101
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LordMortis »

I'da turned $60 in to maybe $70 had Maximum Security won with $10 to win and $5 to show back when he was 8=1 on Friday. Instead I'm out $60. That's two years in a row I bite it. I covered my bets well but not well enough to cover a disqualify. Ah well, maybe I'll get smart and cut my bets back to $20 next year. It's the last year our local track will be open so it'll be the last year I bet unless something happens to change tradition between now and 2021.
User avatar
Unagi
Posts: 26376
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2006 5:14 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Unagi »

War of Will was the screwed horse
User avatar
Isgrimnur
Posts: 82088
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Chookity pok
Contact:

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Isgrimnur »

WaPo
Country House, the controversial winner of the Kentucky Derby, will not run in the Preakness Stakes on May 18 in Baltimore because he has shown signs of illness after Saturday’s Run for the Roses, becoming the first Kentucky Derby winner to skip the second leg of the Triple Crown since Grindstone in 1996.

“He developed a little bit of a cough this morning,” trainer Bill Mott told Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman on Tuesday. “His appetite is good. He doesn’t have a fever. But he’s coughing. We drew blood. He’s acting like he’s going to get sick. He’s off the training list, and if he’s off the training list he’s off the Preakness list.”
...
The absence of a Triple Crown possibility has historically depressed TV ratings for and betting on the next race in the series. With no horse gunning for the Triple Crown in 2016, one year after American Pharoah became the first Triple Crown winner since 1978, that year’s Belmont Stakes was the lowest-rated and least-watched since 2010, and the total amount bet on the race fell from $82.4 million to $52.2 million. Attendance also fell, from 90,000 to 60,114.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
User avatar
Isgrimnur
Posts: 82088
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Chookity pok
Contact:

Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Isgrimnur »

NBC News
Medina Spirit, who failed a drug test after winning the Kentucky Derby this year, died during a workout Monday morning in California.

The horse collapsed while training at Santa Anita, the horse’s trainer, Bob Baffert, confirmed.

He said his "entire barn" was devastated by the a 3-year-old colt's death.
...
The horse tested positive for betamethasone following the May 1 Derby. Betamethasone is a legal medication that is not permitted on race days.

Baffert denied accusations that he drugged the horse following a split urine test, saying the drug was in Medina Spirit’s system due to a topical ointment.

The controversy left a stain on both the legacy of Baffert and Medina Spirit. Baffert was hit with a 2-year suspension from the Churchill Downs track in June.

Baffert sued for additional testing to prove the betamethasone was from the Otomax ointment. The horse's win was not officially disqualified at the time of his death as the investigation was ongoing.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
Post Reply