baseball potential Hall of Fame talk.

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Dramatist
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baseball potential Hall of Fame talk.

Post by Dramatist »

The Sox/Cards thread got me thinking about this but I think it needs it's own thread.

It could be argued that making the Baseball Hall of Fame is the biggest career honor in all of sports. Baseball's been played for more than 100 years and there are only 164 in the HoF. A few of those are managers too. I didn't break down the pitcher/batter splits, but it's safe to say to make it you need to be one of the top 100 batters or pitchers ever.

I'm curious who you all think would make it in, and who would be close out of today's players.

My stipulation is that the players would need to make it in with what they've already done and not potential. This way we don't talk about players like Albert Pujols. (not a knock on him, just he's only played four years). You can mention players that have retired after this season too. (Edgar Martinez) and players you're not sure are retired (Ricky Henderson).

I'm an NL guy, so I'm sure I'll miss more in the AL in my list.

Sure things (IMHO) pitchers
Roger Clemens
Randy Johnson
Greg Maddux
Tom Glavine

Sure things (IMHO) batters
Barry Bonds
Ricky Henderson
Sammy Sosa
Ken Griffey Jr.
Mike Piazza
Craig Biggio
Raphael Palmerio (sp?)

Questionable both pitchers and batters
Curt Schilling
Pedro Martinez
Jeff Bagwell
Larry Walker
Jeff Kent
Fred McGriff
Ivan Rodriguez
John Smoltz
Bernie Williams

I'm sure I'm missing a few or several.

Anyone wanna add some. Or make a case for my questionable picks (for or against) or, shoot down one of my sure things?

Could be a fun discussion.
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Post by triggercut »

I think all of your sure thing pitchers are in.

On your "sure thing" batters....Biggio seems pretty marginal to me. If he can play for 2-3 more years at close to the level he's at now, he's in though. Doing so would give him 3,000 hits.

On your "questionable" pitchers list, I think you need to move Pedro into the "sure thing" category. From 1995-2000 he was dominant beyond dominant. In the "Juiceball" years of '96-2001, Pedro's ERA compared to league ERA is only matched by the Greatest Starting Pitcher of All Time--HOF'er Lefty Grove.

On your "questionable list" I'd also say that if Bags' shoulder can hold out for another couple of seasons, he's in. Schill keeps pitching for two more years and he's in. Walker? No way. Rockie factor. Kent? Marginal, "Kingman factor" (he's a pain in the ass to play with, although he seems to finally be mellowing with age). Smoltzie is a "probably not", although if he lasts 4 or 5 more seasons as a dominating closer, he might trade on Eckersley factors to get in. Pudge Rod gets in if he can hold out another couple of years behind the plate. Bernie Baseball will get in on Yankee Factor, unless he has a final 3-4 seasons that are solid, in which case he gets in on merit first.

To me the toughest HoF call in baseball is Frank Thomas. What do you do with this guy? For the first 7 years of his career, he walked with the giants of the game. He's had 8 MVP-type seasons, 2 very good seasons, 2 mediocre seasons, two solid half-seasons, and one year lost to injury. If he can put together a final 3-4 seasons, he'll have 2,500 hits, 500 HR, and 1700 RBI.
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Post by tswright »

triggercut wrote:To me the toughest HoF call in baseball is Frank Thomas. What do you do with this guy? For the first 7 years of his career, he walked with the giants of the game. He's had 8 MVP-type seasons, 2 very good seasons, 2 mediocre seasons, two solid half-seasons, and one year lost to injury. If he can put together a final 3-4 seasons, he'll have 2,500 hits, 500 HR, and 1700 RBI.
You're kidding, right? The Big Pout is a no-doubt Hall of Famer. The dude currently possesses the 12th highest career OPS+ of all-time. I mean, dig these numbers. If he's not Hall of Fame caliber, who is?
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Post by Dramatist »

Biggio is already top 20 all time in doubles and runs scored. With hits he is 66th I believe. Add to the fact that he was an all star catcher and 2nd baseman (never happened before). Gold glover, top 5 MVP finisher, NL record for lead off home runs. I think he's got great credentials, plus he'll play a couple more years and finish close to 3000 hits.

I forgot to mention Robbie Alomar too, his stats are great even though he's really fallen off the last couple of years.

Weird thing about Frank Thomas (who I also forgot). He and Jeff Bagwell were born on the exact same date. They are almost tied in career home runs too. I imagine both will end up in the hall.

I'll admit I didn't look up Pedro, I knew that he had several all-time pitcher seasons, but didn't know his career stats.

Still fun to discuss. :)
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Post by Tim Frederick »

Other possibilities:

John Smoltz (starter/closer combos are rare)
Trevor Hoffman (393 saves)
Mike Mussina (may not be there yet, over 200 wins 2000 ks)
Kevin Brown (like mussina)

Gary Sheffield (all of these have over 400 HR, good avg, ok hits)
Frank Thomas
Juan Gonzalez
Andres Galarraga - most questionable (only 399 HR)
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Re: baseball potential Hall of Fame talk.

Post by Kelric »

Using your list as a starting point, here are my changes with an explanation why.

Sure thing pitchers:
Roger Clemens
Randy Johnson
Greg Maddux
Tom Glavine
Pedro Martinez - In his prime he was arguably the greatest pitcher ever. Bad run support and unlucky breaks kept him from winning twenty games more often (he's only done it twice). He's had two seasons where his ERA is more than 3.00 below league average. When the league average can sometimes approach 5.00, that's astounding. 182 wins so far.

Sure thing hitters:
Barry Bonds
Ricky Henderson
Sammy Sosa
Ken Griffey Jr.
Mike Piazza
Craig Biggio - The little guy should be first ballot. Just want to put that out there.
Raphael Palmeiro
Larry Walker - Mention the Rockies all you want, the man still hit .314/.401 in his career. Don't forget the fact that he has seven Gold Gloves. One thing a lot of people forget is that second basemen only compete against 29 other second basemen for a Gold Glove. An outfielder competes with 89 other outfielders. There is no 'Center Field Gold Glove,' you simply get one for being a good outfielder, regardless of position. That's a lot more competition to beat out. Getting away from the Rockies and to the Cardinals is going to cement his HoF status, or should. It'll show the man can hit away from Coors and put a national spotlight on him for another few seasons if he keeps playing. He won three batting titles in Colorado and is 7th on the active career BA list as well as the slugging percentage list. 4 of his 10 most comparable hitters are HoFers (Mize, Klein, Snider, Dimaggio) and 4 others are close calls (Burks - who shouldn't be in, Sheffield and Thomas who I'll discuss, and Manny Ramirez).
Jeff Bagwell - Two or three more good years should do it, especially since he got the postseason monkey off his back somewhat this season. But I admit I have a soft spot for this ex-Red Sox farmhand.
Frank Thomas - The man can still hit when he wants to and is healthy. Two or three more years will see him pass 500 homers and then he's in without a doubt. He was arguably the most feared hitter in baseball for nearly a decade and most of that was as a young kid. He has two MVP awards, finished in the top 10 six more times, is 11th in career OBP, 16th in career slugging, 100th in career runs, 31st in homers and 51st in RBIs. That's HoF quality right there folks.
Ivan Rodriguez - One of the best catchers of all time, I'd say top 10. First ballot, even if he retired now.
Roberto Alomar - More than 2,700 hits as a defensive wizard (50th all time for hits). Not to mention five top 10 MVP finishes.

Everybody else mentioned:
Curt Schilling - I'd like to see him in but I don't know if he will make it. Two more good years with the Red Sox before retiring will probably do it though, especially with that big performance against the Yankees this week.
Jeff Kent - I've never liked him, but he can hit. Close call, I'd vote no out of annoyance.
Fred McGriff - No. Good, never great.
John Smoltz - Now, no. Three or four more 40-ish save seasons and he gets in on the Eck-factor.
Bernie Williams - The Yankee factor may get him in, but so would another 400 hits to reach 2,500. I don't see him getting those hits.
Trevor Hoffman - Lots of saves, it's possible. Three top 10 Cy Young finishes as a closer? A top 10 MVP year? Maybe.
Mike Mussina - No. He needs more good years.
Kevin Brown - No. Also needs more years. Moose may get them, I don't know if he can.
Gary Sheffield - If he retired today, no. If he retires with more than 500 homers (415 right now) while hitting more than .270 for the rest of his career, then I think he gets in.
Juan Gonzalez - No. Injuries did him in.
Andres Galarraga - No. Good story with the two comebacks lately, but no. Much more of a Rockies factor than Larry Walker.
Edgar Martinez - I say no, but he may get in. I feel bad saying no though.
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Post by Blackadar »

I think the challenge in making the HOF in the next few years will be that players may not be compared to history. The power numbers are really out of whack today.

With that in mind, here's my picks

Guaranteed In Pitchers:
Roger Clemens - a no brainer. Best pitcher in 30 years.
Gred Maddux - again, another no brainer.
Randy Johnson - 246 wins, 3.01 ERA, 4,161 Ks. 'Nuff said.

Probably In Pitchers
Tom Glavine - Tommy's 262 wins and 2 CYAs probably gets him in, but I wouldn't vote for him until Jack Morris gets in. Tommy had the luck of playing for a lot of good teams.
Pedro Martinez - Is 182 wins good enough? Pedro is breaking down fast. But how do you deny someone with 3 CYAs? You don't, so I'd vote for him.

Question Mark Pitchers
Trevor Hoffman - here's someone I hope doesn't get overlooked. Probably the most underappreciated player in my lifetime.
Mike Mussina - another guy I'd rather have than Tom Glavine. Moose played on much worse teams much of his career. 6 GGs and 5 top-5 CYAs must mean something.

Probably Out Pitchers
Curt Schilling - No CYAs. 184 wins. A great pitcher, but not good enough. Schilling needs a few more good seasons to be really considered.
John Smoltz - Another guy who probably will get overlooked but shouldn't. He should have had a helluva lot more wins that he does. If he plays a couple more years, he might get the nod.

Hell No Pitchers
Kevin Brown - Are you kidding?

In Hitters
Barry Bonds - Juice or no juice, he's the best hitter I've ever seen.
Ricky Henderson - Hate his attitude, love his game.
Ken Griffey Jr - I hate how injuries have done him in, but he was awesome for many years.
Mike Piazza - Great hitting overcomes poor fielding
Ivan Rodriguez - Great hitting AND great fielding
Roberto Alomar - Hit .300 and 10 GGs. Enough said.
Mark McGwire - Retired but not in. 583 homers. 70. Saved the game.
Sammy Sosa - Sammy's probably in with 574 homers.

Probably Hitters
Craig Biggio - closing in on 3,000 hits, 4 GGs and 7 All-Star appearances. Quitely.
Rafael Palmero - More of a lifetime achievement award. He'll get to 3,000 hits and 575 homers likely. He was only in the top TEN in the MVP award 3 times in his career. A good player for a very long time means induction. Even if he was never dominant or feared.
Frank Thomas - Man, he's a tough one because when he was on, he was on - 2 AL MVPs. But only a 5 time All-Star, so he wasn't on very long. I believe that his star burned bright enough to get in.

Question Mark Hitters
Manny Ramirez - I can't believe no one has mentioned a 9 time All Star. I'd say 2 more decent years and he's in, guaranteed.
Larry Walker - How much does Coors Field factor in? I think the 7 GGs are what puts him over the top.
Jeff Bagwell - When are 446 HRs not enough? When you've only been an All Star 4 times. Like Manny, need a couple more years.
Juan Gonzalez - What's going for Juan-Gone? 2 MVPs. What's not? Only 3 All Star awards. I wouldn't vote for him.
Gary Sheffield - Sheffy's still has a chance because he's still producing. But he needs a couple more good years.
Vladimir Guerrero - Another one I can't believe hasn't been mentioned. Yes, he needs more time. But with an MVP this year and a couple more decent ones, he's a lock.

Probably Out Hitters
Jeff Kent - Yes, he was a good infield hitter. Yes, he has an MVP. But no, he wasn't dominant. I think the infielders today (Soriano, Rolen, ARod, etc.) will make his stats look even worse 5 years from now.
Bernie Williams - What, are you kidding? Hell no. Yes, he has 4 GGs and was an MVP 5 years. But he was never elite or even close to it
Fred McGriff - A lifetime achievement award for 493 homers? Uh, no.
Andres Galarraga - Good, but not great. Sorry Andres.
Edgar Martinez - Man, he was a good hitter. But I don't see how a DH gets this award without being the best hitter. And he never was.
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Post by Teggy »

Thank you people for adding Piazza in there - best hitting catcher ever, he'll have no problem.

I am wondering though, should they come up with solid evidence that Bonds used steroids, how do you think it will affect his support for the HOF?
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Post by Kelric »

Blackadar - Manny is only 31 or so and Vladimir Guerrero is only 28. They both will probably be in the Hall of Fame but they go against the grain with the rest of the names in this discussion. Those two more than likely have four or five good years left in them, everyone else talked about has two, maybe three, decent years at best. Unless of course they go all Barry Bonds on us and play for another decade (steroids or no steroids, it's an amazing run and he was a Hall of Famer before he hit 73).
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Post by godhugh »

Ryan Sandberg
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Post by Tim Frederick »

I like Sandberg, but this is players who are still playing.
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Post by Steron »

I was going to say I couldn't believe you all forgot about Cal Ripken Jr, then I saw that they had to be current players. My bad.
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Post by triggercut »

Marginal guys who won't make it in due to Kingman Factor*: Juan Gonzalez, Jeff Kent, Kevin Brown.

*Dave Kingman may still be the guy with the most career HR who isn't in the Hall--or not, perhaps someone else has inherited that mantle now. For one thing, Kong couldn't field, and was a lousy, Rob Deer/Greg Vaughn-like hitter other than the HR. For another, though, Kingman had a tendency to piss off everyone around him, and teams he played for couldn't wait to dump his sorry ass. His numbers and swing said he probably had a couple of 30 HR+ seasons in him after his final year (he hit 35), but he'd worn out his welcome throughout the majors and no one wanted the bastard on their team.
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Post by Dramatist »

I don't know much about Kingman, but Andre Dawson is another player with lots of stats that's not in the HoF.
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Post by Dramatist »

Looking up career home runs (minus 2004 numbers) I noticed that Kingman was 28th all time with 442, Andre Dawson was 29th with 438, although Dawson played 5 more years than Kingman.

I say was because Jeff Bagwell passed them both this year. And Juan Gonzales and Frank Thomas were closing in as well (not sure how many homers they had this season).

Jose Canseco (at 26th with 462) is now the guy with the most homers not in the HoF.

edit - Doh! just noticed that Canseco is not eligible yet and won't be til 2006. I don't think he'll make the HoF though.
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Post by Dramatist »

triggercut wrote:To me the toughest HoF call in baseball is Frank Thomas. What do you do with this guy? For the first 7 years of his career, he walked with the giants of the game. He's had 8 MVP-type seasons, 2 very good seasons, 2 mediocre seasons, two solid half-seasons, and one year lost to injury. If he can put together a final 3-4 seasons, he'll have 2,500 hits, 500 HR, and 1700 RBI.
I spent a little time looking at Frank Thomas's career stats and I'd not put him in yet.

I'll say he's close, but his performance over the last few years is a little lacking. I hadn't realized that he's been a DH in roughly 50% of his career games played. Being only a DH has to knock him down a few points in my book.

If he can play for another couple of years at a decent level he'll probably have the stats to make it. He's at 436 career home runs. Another couple of years would put him within spitting distance of 500 (had 18 long balls in 2004). He just had foot surgery and is expected to start 2005 on the DL.
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Post by IHateMorrowind »

How has no one in this thread mentioned Mariano Rivera? :).
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Post by Jaymann »

What about Tony Gwynn?
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Post by triggercut »

Mariano, definitely.

Gwynnie didn't get mentioned because we're talking about active major leaguers.
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Post by Kelric »

Mariano Rivera definitely deserves to be in the Hall of Fame and I'm sure he will be. Unless he keeps playing the Red Sox. :twisted:
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Post by IHateMorrowind »

Remember, Kelric, they haven't broken the Curse quite yet... ;-)
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Post by Kelric »

IHateMorrowind wrote:Remember, Kelric, they haven't broken the Curse quite yet... ;-)
No they haven't, but about 1/3 to 1/2 of his blown saves over the last few years have all been to the Red Sox. 9 of his 22 blown saves, or something like that, though I dont know if that includes the playoffs (in which case he really only ever blows it to the Sox).
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Post by wire »

Blackadar wrote:Edgar Martinez - Man, he was a good hitter. But I don't see how a DH gets this award without being the best hitter. And he never was.
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The following website looks like a good one for getting a complete statisical history for players, as well as, HoF predictions according to stats for those that already got into the Hall.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/
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Post by Kelric »

Edgar Martinez is one of those guys that I wouldn't vote for but I'd feel bad not voting him in since he's always seemed like a nice guy and never got a real chance early in his career to become the everyday starter.

Now, quick, everybody put Luis Tiant in the HoF!
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Post by Dramatist »

Fun Jeff Bagwell fact.

When Jeff Bagwell scored 152 runs in 2000. The 152 were tied for 29th place on the all time single season runs scored list. But those are the most runs scored since 1937 when Lou Gehrig scored 167 runs. The most runs scored in 63 years.

49 out of the top 100 all time runs scored seasons were recorded in the 1800s. Jeff Bagwell is the only modern player in the top 100 twice 29th and 79th).
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Post by Kelric »

Dramatist wrote:Fun Jeff Bagwell fact.

When Jeff Bagwell scored 152 runs in 2000. The 152 were tied for 29th place on the all time single season runs scored list. But those are the most runs scored since 1937 when Lou Gehrig scored 167 runs. The most runs scored in 63 years.

49 out of the top 100 all time runs scored seasons were recorded in the 1800s. Jeff Bagwell is the only modern player in the top 100 twice 29th and 79th).
That, I didn't know. He also has 202 steals including two 30 steal seasons. I'm sure that's got to be up there on the list among first basemen - especially active first basemen who tend to be large and slow sluggers.
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