The Winds of Winter [GRRM] [NotDoneYet]

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Sat Jan 02, 2016 9:44 am

That's your interpretation. I interpret GRRM's words in the context of past performance.

"But there's also a lot still left to write. I am months away still... and that's if the writing goes well. (Sometimes it does. Sometimes it doesn't.) Chapters still to write, of course... but also rewriting. I always do a lot of rewriting, sometimes just polishing, sometimes pretty major restructures."

I didn't say I think it's years away. But if it's less than several months (to turn in the manuscript, plus 3 more to edit and publish), I'll be enormously surprised. That's not close. Late summer at best. Close to the end of 2016 would be my bet.

I'd love to be wrong.

TiLT · Post by **TiLT** » Sat Jan 02, 2016 9:52 am

I'd say you're the one interpreting if anything less than a year is not close. GRRM takes 5+ years to write each of his books in this series for the most part.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Sat Jan 02, 2016 9:57 am

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Sat Jan 02, 2016 10:51 am

It certainly sounds like near the end of the year is the best bet. Whether you consider that "close" or not is up to you.

In any case, while I knew that it was almost guaranteed, I don't think (?) I had before seen official confirmation of a 7th book. And I certainly didn't know it was to be called "Dream of Spring". But I don't follow the updates carefully.

TiLT · Post by **TiLT** » Sat Jan 02, 2016 11:33 am

Ralph-Wiggum wrote:In any case, while I knew that it was almost guaranteed, I don't think (?) I had before seen official confirmation of a 7th book. And I certainly didn't know it was to be called "Dream of Spring". But I don't follow the updates carefully.

That name has been known for quite a few years now. I dunno when it was first announced, but it's a long time ago. Keep in mind that this is GRRM's plan. His wife has kept saying (to him) that she doesn't think he can wrap it up in two books, but his plans don't appear to have changed since then, so he's probably proving her wrong.

It's "A Dream of Spring" btw, in classic A Song of Ice and Fire fashion.

Exodor · Post by **Exodor** » Sat Jan 02, 2016 12:25 pm

For a long time I lamented the speed of the show and GRRM's slow writing but now?

Now I'm very thankful for the show as it means we're guaranteed to get an ending to this story. I'm not so confident we'll get that with the written series.

Odin · Post by **Odin** » Sat Jan 02, 2016 12:37 pm

Whether or not year-end is defined as "close" (I'm in the "not really" camp), I've lost all confidence in Martin's ability to estimate. Just because he thinks he's close doesn't mean he actually is. I'd welcome a hot copy of The Winds of Winter in my hands in 2016, but I won't be even a little surprised if it slips even further.

In fact, we know that at one point Martin felt some pressure, to what extent we cannot say, to finish TWoW before the 2016 season of GoT debuted. He didn't make it, and now that pressure is entirely gone. As such, I'm even less optimistic that he knows when he'll be done.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sat Jan 02, 2016 12:45 pm

Exodor wrote:Now I'm very thankful for the show as it means we're guaranteed to get an ending to this story. I'm not so confident we'll get that with the written series.

He's never going to finish, mark it down. And I'm guessing as soon as HBO is done with the show the desire to finish writing it will completely disappear because when people ask him what happens in the story he gets to shrug his shoulders and tell them to just watch the HBO series. I've said it a dozen times before - he had lightning in a bottle with the first three books. After that (and for whatever reasons) he just couldn't find that spark again and so it now withers on the vine. The fact that he's now getting big fat royalty checks from HBO for a series he inspired (but didn't finish) is the final nail in the coffin. Any motivation to finish disappeared when the HBO series exploded and people paid him for his ideas. I'm guessing there's an element of pressure as well and he doesn't appear to respond well to feeling it. It could be why the first three books were written in 4 years - zero expectations.

It's been 15 years since A Storm of Swords was released and in that time only two more books in the series have seen the light of day. That's absurd.

Jeff V · Post by **Jeff V** » Sat Jan 02, 2016 1:04 pm

He probably needs to outsource various story lines to other writers. He can edit them together for consistency. The books would likely come a lot quicker, and probably be more interesting to boot.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Sat Jan 02, 2016 1:15 pm

Yeah, I'm going to agree with the majority here. It's not close, and it's GRRM's own doing that's got him in this mess he can't seem to get out of.

Odin · Post by **Odin** » Sat Jan 02, 2016 1:44 pm

Smoove_B wrote:
Exodor wrote:Now I'm very thankful for the show as it means we're guaranteed to get an ending to this story. I'm not so confident we'll get that with the written series.
He's never going to finish, mark it down. And I'm guessing as soon as HBO is done with the show the desire to finish writing it will completely disappear because when people ask him what happens in the story he gets to shrug his shoulders and tell them to just watch the HBO series. I've said it a dozen times before - he had lightning in a bottle with the first three books. After that (and for whatever reasons) he just couldn't find that spark again and so it now withers on the vine. The fact that he's now getting big fat royalty checks from HBO for a series he inspired (but didn't finish) is the final nail in the coffin. Any motivation to finish disappeared when the HBO series exploded and people paid him for his ideas. I'm guessing there's an element of pressure as well and he doesn't appear to respond well to feeling it. It could be why the first three books were written in 4 years - zero expectations.

It's been 15 years since A Storm of Swords was released and in that time only two more books in the series have seen the light of day. That's absurd.

This may actually have been true back to the moment when he told the HBO producers how the series ended. I had a novel idea back in 2004 that I put a fair amount of work into developing. I had a long commute to work (90 min each way) and I would record notes into an audio recorder then transcribe them later. I had a huge volume of plot ideas, background, prose, etc. all ready to go. I even had a couple of chapters written. Then I told people all about it... and totally lost interest. I have the impression that Martin is just as neurotic about writing as any other author and more than some, so it wouldn't surprise me if something similar happened with him.

And I agree - the pace of the books after A Storm of Swords has been glacial.

Baroquen · Post by **Baroquen** » Sat Jan 02, 2016 1:47 pm

I'm in the 'not close' camp too. He's got so many other things that he allows himself to be distracted by, and I don't blame him for living the life he wants to lead. But it all directly impacts his desire/ability/need to tackle TWoW. I think he might eventually finish the cycle, but Smoove's scenario seems equally plausible.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sat Jan 02, 2016 2:02 pm

Chaucer never finished either. GRRM might claim the precedent.

JSHAW · Post by **JSHAW** » Sat Jan 02, 2016 8:19 pm

GRRM reminds me of the rock band Boston.

They put out the album Don't Look Back in 1978, and it would be 8 long years before
the album Third Stage was released in 1986.

Boston also dealt with alot of legal problems, a lawsuit, and many personnel changes, more
than GRRM will ever have on his plate.

The way I look at it is great art takes time. If one considers GRRM an artist, crafting his
words into story form, give the man his space and let him weave his magic in his own
time.

It's finished when it's done. Maybe for all those that can't wait any longer the wait will
be worth it and it will wind up being his best work yet.

I've never read the books, I only watch the show on HBO.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sat Jan 02, 2016 9:33 pm

JSHAW wrote: The way I look at it is great art takes time. If one considers GRRM an artist, crafting his
words into story form, give the man his space and let him weave his magic in his own
time.

It's finished when it's done. Maybe for all those that can't wait any longer the wait will
be worth it and it will wind up being his best work yet.

I've never read the books, I only watch the show on HBO.

I think the worry about his art is not just the wait but that the 4th and 5th books weren't as good.

Jeff V · Post by **Jeff V** » Mon Jan 04, 2016 1:00 pm

IIRC, the 4th and 5th books at least began as a single volume, but had to be split when it became unwieldy and some of the events in those books are concurrent. That really doesn't work too well when there's a large gap between them (I could see 4 taking a long time, but 5 really shouldn't have been so long in following. I wonder if some time (perhaps post-GRRM) books 4 and 5 will be recomposed into a more linear fashion.

Scuzz · Post by **Scuzz** » Mon Jan 04, 2016 1:42 pm

The 4th book was painful, the 5th only slightly better.

The show will finish the story, using GRRM's outline, and because of the that GRRM will never feel the "need" to actually finish the final book (or books).

Odin · Post by **Odin** » Mon Jan 04, 2016 2:03 pm

Scuzz wrote:The 4th book was painful, the 5th only slightly better.

The show will finish the story, using GRRM's outline, and because of the that GRRM will never feel the "need" to actually finish the final book (or books).

Yeah, I absolutely think that's a danger. If he gets it in his head that, "Ah, well, I'm only telling MY VERSION of a story that's already been told, and all the surprises are already out, etc. etc." it's likely going to be really hard for him to work up the effort to finish.

I mean, we know he told the HBO guys how the story was generally going to end, so even if they kill off this character prematurely or give that character a different role, both stories are going to end up in pretty much exactly the same place. Whatever "big finish" he has in mind will be out there already.

I can imagine a scenario where he spends more and more time working on Dunk & Egg stories or Wild Cards (does he still write those? I haven't read them so don't really keep track) or whatever and his work on ASoIaF just kind of trickles off to nothing. Which would suck, because even if both stories end up in the same place, the books are always going to have more detail, more flavor, and more depth than the GoT series ever will. I'd like to learn what really happened with Rhaegar and Lianna. I'd like to see Baelish's plot play out. I want to see what happens to 'Griff'. A lot of that is going to be lost in the series, I believe.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Jan 04, 2016 2:07 pm

He edits Wild Cards.

Odin · Post by **Odin** » Mon Jan 04, 2016 2:39 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:He edits Wild Cards.

Ah, I understand now. Thanks. So it would seem that he's written almost nothing outside of Westeros since about 1996. Which also adds to the problem - he may well just get bored and burned out after 20 years in the same universe. This is a guy who wrote for Beauty and the Beast and won all kinds of awards for his werewolf story Skin Trade. He's got lots of other things that interest him and probably lots of other stories he'd like to tell.

Ball it up and yeah, the likelihood of him finishing ASoIaF seems more and more like a longshot.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Jan 04, 2016 2:43 pm

We just need the next Brandon Sanderson to take the reins.

Scuzz · Post by **Scuzz** » Mon Jan 04, 2016 3:08 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:We just need the next Brandon Sanderson to take the reins.

He has said that will not happen, even if he dies, there is to be no other writer.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jan 04, 2016 3:12 pm

Scuzz wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:We just need the next Brandon Sanderson to take the reins.
He has said that will not happen, even if he dies, there is to be no other writer.

Does he have that in a contract? Even if he does, hard to see how that's ultimately enforceable after he dies, as presumably any rights he has (contractual or otherwise) will pass to his heirs, and it's hard to see the heirs passing on the essentially free money they would get from approving a new book.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Mon Jan 04, 2016 3:25 pm

El Guapo wrote:
Scuzz wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:We just need the next Brandon Sanderson to take the reins.
He has said that will not happen, even if he dies, there is to be no other writer.
Does he have that in a contract? Even if he does, hard to see how that's ultimately enforceable after he dies, as presumably any rights he has (contractual or otherwise) will pass to his heirs, and it's hard to see the heirs passing on the essentially free money they would get from approving a new book.

Couldn't you lawyerly types draft up a will that would disinherit them if they tried that?

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Mon Jan 04, 2016 3:26 pm

[insert rant about everything that is wrong with copyright here]

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jan 04, 2016 3:32 pm

Jaymann wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
Scuzz wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:We just need the next Brandon Sanderson to take the reins.
He has said that will not happen, even if he dies, there is to be no other writer.
Does he have that in a contract? Even if he does, hard to see how that's ultimately enforceable after he dies, as presumably any rights he has (contractual or otherwise) will pass to his heirs, and it's hard to see the heirs passing on the essentially free money they would get from approving a new book.
Couldn't you lawyerly types draft up a will that would disinherit them if they tried that?

I'm not a contracts or trusts and estates lawyer, but I'm not going to let that lack of knowledge get in the way of expounding on this. I kind of doubt you could do that effectively. Once they have the inheritance, mainly, I doubt that there is a way to "clawback" the money if they approve another book. I suppose you could probably write up a will that gives the money in pieces over a specified date range, with the contingency that you don't get subsequent payments if you have in the interim approved a new book in the series. Though even that would probably just delay the book until the expected value of the new book exceeds the remaining inheritance amount.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Mon Jan 04, 2016 3:39 pm

Yeah, it seems you would have to structure the inheritance payouts to start very low and increase over the next 20 years, at which point few would care about a new book.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Jan 04, 2016 3:47 pm

Go Set A Watchman.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Mon Jan 04, 2016 3:53 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:Go Set A Watchman.

Indeed.

Book 6 is a lock to come out. Even if GRRM gets hit by a bus tomorrow, it sounds like it's "done" enough that the publisher would at a minimum touch it up and send it out the door. If GRRM lives at least another year or two, he's evidently close enough that he'll get it out sooner or later.

Book 7 by GRRM seems like a much more dicey proposition, given that it's years of work that he'll presumably be very minimally motivated to do (though there would be the carrot that he'll be definitively DONE once he gets book 7 done). But even if he never gets it done before he dies, it's hard to imagine that book 7 wouldn't come out in some form eventually, even if it winds up being decades later.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Mon Jan 04, 2016 4:39 pm

Dude is only 67! Admittedly he doesn't look like he's in top shape, but still...unless you guys know something about his medical history that I don't, he's likely to live quite a few more years.

I do wonder if he will get a reaction similar to what George Lucas got, in that people are so enamored by his early work, that they take it personally when he does something that gets in the fans' way of what the creator started, either veering away from greatness, with Lucas, or simply not finishing (or REALLY slow) in the case of Martin.

I personally really enjoyed the last two Song of Ice and Fire books, even though they were not as good as their predecessors. "Bad" Martin is still Martin, and 80% better than most fantasy out there IMO. I would really prefer that he finish, but I enjoyed what I read so far, so much, that I am ok however it turns out. I do think I will at some point go back and re-read the whole thing.

Jeff V · Post by **Jeff V** » Mon Jan 04, 2016 5:09 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote: that I am ok however it turns out.

That's the thing, he's one potato chip away from becoming an ex-parrot. We may never know how it all turns out (only the bits of it that run their course in the TV show).

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Mon Jan 04, 2016 5:25 pm

Jeff V wrote:
Carpet_pissr wrote: that I am ok however it turns out.
That's the thing, he's one potato chip away from becoming an ex-parrot. We may never know how it all turns out (only the bits of it that run their course in the TV show).

And that's fine - by me - but I can also understand the frustration of other fans who don't think that way, i.e. MUST know how it all ends.

I liken it to watching a movie that doesn't have great reviews, because the movie itself is not great, but is worth watching because of one actor's outstanding performance. I can totally enjoy the movie focused on that one aspect. The rest is gravy.

Martin's writing and storytelling is enough to satisfy me as is...I don't necessarily have to know how the story ends to have enjoyed the hell out of what is already out there and available. That attitude probably also explains my minority opinion of the last two books, where most people didn't like them.

Zarathud · Post by **Zarathud** » Mon Jan 04, 2016 11:11 pm

Families are known for exploiting the deceased's intellectual property, so I expect the trick would be to transfer the copyright in trust to someone who would respect GRRM's wishes. He can even reserve the economic profit for his intended beneficiaries.

In addition to defending GRRM, Neil Gaiman has written about the importance of authors planning for their literary estate (with no opinion rendered on the linked post). I am certain GRRM has the resources to hire a competent lawyer to address his posthumous desires.

However, I would not want to be the author of a legal document that had to meet GRRM's scrutiny as an editor. Legal writing and regular writing are two entirely separate disciplines, with their own skill sets. But it might be entertaining to known how GRRM would insert an aside about his last meal into the document.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Mon Jan 04, 2016 11:22 pm

I would assume that neeps would feature prominently.

Jeff V · Post by **Jeff V** » Mon Jan 04, 2016 11:50 pm

Zarathud wrote: But it might be entertaining to known how GRRM would insert an aside about his last meal into the document.

You are assuming that "meal" isn't being administered via IV.

Cortilian · Post by **Cortilian** » Tue Jan 05, 2016 12:46 am

Carpet_pissr wrote:
Jeff V wrote:
Carpet_pissr wrote: that I am ok however it turns out.
Martin's writing and storytelling is enough to satisfy me as is...I don't necessarily have to know how the story ends to have enjoyed the hell out of what is already out there and available. That attitude probably also explains my minority opinion of the last two books, where most people didn't like them.

Reading the last 2 books was a chore for me. However, listening to them on audiobook was awesome. I erally liked the last 2 books after listening to then as opposed to reading them.

I am going through the same thing now. I am listening to The Wheel of Time on audiobook and find I am finding them much more enjoyable and I don't mind the braid tugging and skirt straightening near as much when I read the books.

Odin · Post by **Odin** » Tue Jan 05, 2016 6:57 am

Cortilian wrote:Reading the last 2 books was a chore for me. However, listening to them on audiobook was awesome. I erally liked the last 2 books after listening to then as opposed to reading them.

I'm curious - which version of A Feast for Crows did you listen to? I have John Lee's, and it's fucking horrible. A guy on Reddit does an admirable job of summing up why I hate it:

"Although I've enjoyed John Lee's readings of other books, his AFFC is a complete train wreck. He doesn't 'get' the rhythm of GRRM's writing, and seems to overemphasise one random word in each sentence. There is no distinction between the characters' speech and thoughts (ie. the bits GRRM puts in italics) and that makes it really hard to follow. Just no."

If I had to listen to him say "the sea. STONE. chair." one more time I was going to murder somebody. Or myself. Or one then the other. I dunno, but gah!! Taking a moderately crappy book about Brienne wandering in the woods to no actual purpose chapter after chapter after chapter and then having to listen to that monkey read it just added insult to injury. Sadly, the reviews of Dotrice's read for it have been nearly as bad, so I've just stopped getting the audiobooks. My commute/business travel no longer requires them anyway.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Jan 05, 2016 9:24 am

Zarathud wrote: However, I would not want to be the author of a legal document that had to meet GRRM's scrutiny as an editor. Legal writing and regular writing are two entirely separate disciplines, with their own skill sets. But it might be entertaining to known how GRRM would insert an aside about his last meal into the document.

It gets complicated when he kills off the main character.

Zarathud · Post by **Zarathud** » Tue Jan 05, 2016 11:37 am

A well planned Will has contingency plans. I feel like discussing Game of Thrones when having the discussion "so what should happen to your money if all of your descendants and family die in a common accident...like at a wedding."

Canuck · Post by **Canuck** » Tue Jan 05, 2016 7:30 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote:Dude is only 67! Admittedly he doesn't look like he's in top shape, but still...unless you guys know something about his medical history that I don't, he's likely to live quite a few more years.

Depends on your definition of "quite a few more". The average life expectancy in the US is 76 and you don't need to be a doctor or have access to his medical records to see that he is a classic candidate for all kinds of potential early deaths. I think 72 would be a generous estimate which means if her hurries and gets this next book out he should have time to get one more in-although I doubt his writing speed is going to increase in his latter years.
On the other hand, who knows? I've heard he's started a new workout routine.