Science thinker's predictions for the future (25 years ago)

[msduncan]

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/slidesho ... es#slide=1

Scroll through the picture and read the captions to the right. The pictures have nothing to do with the captions and are there for flavor. The captions are the predictions.

[YellowKing]

Well, most of them were pretty much dead wrong.

The optimists were too optimistic and the pessimists were too pessimistic. Too bad there weren't more specific predictions - many of those were hedging their bets with vague generalities.

[Blackhawk]

Roger Zelazny: "A cashless, checkless society has just about come to pass, that automation has transformed offices and robotics manufacturing in mainly beneficial ways, including telecommuting, that defense spending has finally slowed for a few of the right reasons, that population growth has also slowed and that biotechnology has transformed medicine, agriculture and industry -- all of this resulting in an older, slightly conservative, but longer-lived and healthier society."

Zelazny probably had more on-target predictions than anyone, save for the bit about defense spending. His comments on biotech could have been true - we have the capability, but silly paranoia has blocked many of the applications.

[theohall]

#3:

With nanotechnology, it becomes possible to create structures in which every atom has a specific place and function. Such structures could for example, contain immense densities of information, rivaling and surpassing that of the human brain. This information would be contained in tiny volumes, as small as individual bacteria, so that the information could be processed much more quickly than by 1987's computers, be they made of carbon or silicon.

Closest prediction to anything real.

[Brian]

The first Jet Pack equipped Human/Chimp hybrid will rain poo-laced terror down upon us.

[Pyperkub]

Roger Zelazny: "A cashless, checkless society has just about come to pass, that automation has transformed offices and robotics manufacturing in mainly beneficial ways, including telecommuting, that defense spending has finally slowed for a few of the right reasons, that population growth has also slowed and that biotechnology has transformed medicine, agriculture and industry -- all of this resulting in an older, slightly conservative, but longer-lived and healthier society."

Zelazny probably had more on-target predictions than anyone, save for the bit about defense spending. His comments on biotech could have been true - we have the capability, but silly paranoia has blocked many of the applications.

Hmm? Biotech has transformed medicine and agriculture. It's not quite ubiquitous in medicine yet, but it has transformed it.

And he was right on Defense spending... for awhile, then it ballooned again.

[Scraper]

The first Jet Pack equipped Human/Chimp hybrid will rain poo-laced terror down upon us.

I really don't get what our fascination was with Chimps in the 70s and 80s. Was it the Planet of the Apes, Michael Jackson, Any Which Way But Loose (I know that wasn't a chimp)? I mean it just seems silly and dangerous.

[msduncan]

Chimps hadn't eaten anyone's face off yet.

[Blackhawk]

e]

Hmm? Biotech has transformed medicine and agriculture. It's not quite ubiquitous in medicine yet, but it has transformed it.

I has made big improvements, I agree. What it could have done but hasn't been allowed to, though, is even more significant.

[silverjon]

I really don't get what our fascination was with Chimps in the 70s and 80s. Was it the Planet of the Apes, Michael Jackson, Any Which Way But Loose (I know that wasn't a chimp)? I mean it just seems silly and dangerous.

It was also the time period when humans were just figuring out how sophisticated the social structures of various primate species are, and that apes can acquire language skills understandable by people. That's a lot to capture the imagination, and would have been the driving force behind the pop culture stuff you cite.

[Anonymous Bosch]

Arthur C. Clarke predicting the future in 1964 (quite impressive, considering that by 2001 California doctors were performing virtual surgery on patients in Rome) and more predictions about the internet and PCs in 1974.

[dbt1949]

What did you all think the future was going to be like 25 years ago?
Personally I was thinking more along the line of Soylent Green.

[Kraken]

What did you all think the future was going to be like 25 years ago?
Personally I was thinking more along the line of Soylent Green.

I was a Star Trek optimist back then. By 2012 we should have had a moon base and Mars expeditions, with trips to Jupiter's moons in development. At a minimum. Now I'm not entirely confident that our civilization is going to survive global warming 25 years from now. I'll be 80 years old in 2037, so there's at least a small chance that I'll live to find out.

On the optimistic side, our entertainment options will no doubt be mind-boggling, since that seems to be where our best and brightest minds are employed. The potential for advancement in funny cat pictures and porn is unlimited.

[YellowKing]

My predictions (let's say 20 years ago, since 25 years ago I was still too young to be making serious predictions) all revolved around computing power and technology. I'll have to say my younger self would be absolutely delighted at the gadgets we have today. I tended to underestimate the leaps in computer hardware, didn't see the internet coming at all, but did foresee the end of physical media and moving towards purely digital formats for entertainment.

[GreenGoo]

What did you all think the future was going to be like 25 years ago?
Personally I was thinking more along the line of Soylent Green.

Soylent Green is premised on overpopulation, which is evident every time Heston went up or down stairs. Something that doesn't get much talk is that the entire earth has lost it's ability to make food, due to a "heat wave" that never ends. Essentially the Earth had become too hot to sustain food plants or animals.

I thought that was an interesting idea coming from the early 70's. Acid Rain was just being identified and slowly began to be dealt with. I don't recall any global warming talk from back then, but I was a little young. My father was an engineer with environment canada specializing in air pollutants though.

[Pyperkub]

What did you all think the future was going to be like 25 years ago?
Personally I was thinking more along the line of Soylent Green.

25 years ago, I was still livin' it up in College. I only used a computer for games and writing papers. I read a lot of SF/Fantasy as well, but I don't know if I thought we'd be in space, since Challenger was still fresh in my mind, and the space program had already been Proxmired.

Frankly, I didn't have the perspective yet to be able to look forward like that (it's tough to extrapolate from College life). One of these days I might do a little look forward and document it... could be a fun experiment.

[LordMortis]

I thought that was an interesting idea coming from the early 70's. Acid Rain was just being identified and slowly began to be dealt with. I don't recall any global warming talk from back then, but I was a little young. My father was an engineer with environment canada specializing in air pollutants though.

Saturday morning cartoon educational interludes talked about it by the mid 70s. I remember first "learning" about Green House gases and global warming in probably around 75 or 76. It's the sort of study you have to give NASA (and the Soviet space program) a lot of credit for.

I'm trying to remember the name of the specific programlets they played. They were all science based and they were interludes like Schoolhouse Rock or Snipets.

[Kelric]

25 years ago I was 2. I'm guessing the extent of my predictions were that I was about to poop.

[Pyperkub]

25 years ago I was 2. I'm guessing the extent of my predictions were that I was about to poop.

And that's changed how?

[Kelric]

25 years ago I was 2. I'm guessing the extent of my predictions were that I was about to poop.

And that's changed how?

I do a better job of predicting when I'm going to urinate.

[Kraken]

I thought that was an interesting idea coming from the early 70's. Acid Rain was just being identified and slowly began to be dealt with. I don't recall any global warming talk from back then, but I was a little young. My father was an engineer with environment canada specializing in air pollutants though.

Saturday morning cartoon educational interludes talked about it by the mid 70s. I remember first "learning" about Green House gases and global warming in probably around 75 or 76. It's the sort of study you have to give NASA (and the Soviet space program) a lot of credit for.

One of the first editorials I ever wrote for my junior college newspaper was about the increasing likelihood of global warming, which would have been a new idea to many of our readers. That was in 1976 or 77. I also wrote a short story called "The Greenhouse Effect" a few years earlier, while I was still in high school and the idea was considered science fiction. So the idea was at least in play by the early 70s and becoming accepted by the late 70s.

[LordMortis]

One of the first editorials I ever wrote for my junior college newspaper was about the increasing likelihood of global warming, which would have been a new idea to many of our readers. That was in 1976 or 77. I also wrote a short story called "The Greenhouse Effect" a few years earlier, while I was still in high school and the idea was considered science fiction. So the idea was at least in play by the early 70s and becoming accepted by the late 70s.

As far as I can tell the idea was in play to "the scientific community" by the late 60s when Ventera 4 started studying Venus' atmosphere and why it was the way it is. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_4" target="_blank I have no ideat how long it took to filter down. I figure I was five or six when I first heard about it and it pretty much meant nothing to me then even if it was interesting that TV was trying to educate me while I was watching cartoons.

[Creepy_Smell]

http://www.paleofuture.com/ has a lot of good retro future stuff.

one of my fav books in elementary school was Usborne book of the future. One of the pics in the fox article come from that. nabbed a pdf a few years ago since real copies were/are hard to come by at the time.

[PLW]

If you want the full predictions from these guys and not just Fox News's cherry-picked quotations chosen to imply that all scientists are dead-wrong doomsayers, look here.

Edit: actually, some of the later quotations in the slide show are a little cheerier, so I take back half my snark.

[Jaymann]

25 years ago I pretty much realized that scientific advancements were going to be incremental relative to their impact on everyday life. No Jetson cars or individual fusion reactors. Political and social influences dominate. Big Brother's intrusion into our lives, far from being imposed from the top down, has been viewed as must have technology, and people line up when it goes on sale to pay for the privilege. Much more insidious when you think about it.

[LordMortis]

25 years ago I pretty much realized that scientific advancements were going to be incremental relative to their impact on everyday life. No Jetson cars or individual fusion reactors. Political and social influences dominate. Big Brother's intrusion into our lives, far from being imposed from the top down, has been viewed as must have technology, and people line up when it goes on sale to pay for the privilege. Much more insidious when you think about it.

But technology makes it easier than ever to do fun things like keep track of how much your community grows so you can feel good about yourself.

http://www.infowars.com/utah-garden-cha ... -disguise/" target="_blank

[Isgrimnur]

You didn't issue me my tinfoil hat before I read that link.

[Kraken]

Not really "science thinkers," but there's already a thread for everything: Vox asked 15 "experts" what we do now that will be unthinkable in 50 years. Their list:

Youth tackle football
Bosses
Eating meat
Conspicuous consumption
The way we die
Banning sex work
401(k)s
Ending the draft
Facebook and Google
Abortion
Self-driving cars
Our obsession with rationality
Abandoning public education
The idea of a “wrong side of history”

There's an essay on each topic at the link, and you can choose to read only those that interest you.

[noxiousdog]

Not really "science thinkers," but there's already a thread for everything: Vox asked 15 "experts" what we do now that will be unthinkable in 50 years. Their list:

Youth tackle football
Bosses
Eating meat
Conspicuous consumption
The way we die
Banning sex work
401(k)s
Ending the draft
Facebook and Google
Abortion
Self-driving cars
Our obsession with rationality
Abandoning public education
The idea of a “wrong side of history”

There's an essay on each topic at the link, and you can choose to read only those that interest you.

I question their "expert" labels. I think I'd call them "dreamers."

There's zero chance bosses will be gone. While there is an increased push to self motivated teams, equity sharing, and a move away from executives, there still has to be decision makers. People do not like taking responsibility for decisions.

There's zero chance we'll all be vegetarian. While the total consumption will no doubt go down, people do all kinds of things that are frowned upon even if it damages their health.

I would go completely the opposite on self-driving cars. While I understand the desire for "no cars," until get rid of the desire to go somewhere unique (restaurant/entertainment venue/doctor), you'll need a car and it's unlikely to have a driver.

Rationality is here to stay. The quest for rationality goes back millenia and a few decades isn't going to change it. I'd argue that the climate change situation is going to focus the importance of science and rationality. Nothing like a good global crisis to make changes. However, more research into why people make decisions that don't appear rational will take place and we'll get a much better understanding of the human brain.

Bringing back the draft is pretty unlikely.

[Jeff V]

Not really "science thinkers," but there's already a thread for everything: Vox asked 15 "experts" what we do now that will be unthinkable in 50 years. Their list:

Youth tackle football

Replaced by youth gladiator matches to the death.

Bosses

The term for the robot in charge will be "Overlord"

Eating meat

It's for bathing only.

Conspicuous consumption

Don''t let the Overlord see you eat your meat!

The way we die

Elimination of all healthcare will ensure this typically happens before age 25, when we are much less decrepit.

Banning sex work

Replaced by encouraging sex at work. With workers dying at a much quicker rate, producing replacements is vital.

401(k)s

Why would you need a retirement account if you're gonna be dead by 25? Besides, Social Security will be super awesome if you reach the mandatory retirement age of 105.

Ending the draft

Of course there will be no draft. We've eliminated football players in favor of gladiators and killed them off before puberty.

Facebook and Google

The hell you say!

Abortion

As stated, the need for replacements is critical thanks to high mortality rate. Furthermore, inability to care for a child is also not a problem since either the Overlords or managers of gladiatorial schools will assume the role of the parent, which itself would be institutionalized.

Self-driving cars

Where do you think the Overlords are going to let you go anyway? Get back to work, meatbag.

Our obsession with rationality

What is this? The existence of Trump indicates this does not exist.

Abandoning public education

In favor of gladiatorial education. Or focused trade education to get one to their predetermined career at the earliest possible age.

The idea of a “wrong side of history”

You mean losers? Losers will be weeded out and eradicated. Besides, the Overlords will be motivated to keep human minions from learning of a time when they were actually in charge.

[Kraken]

I question their "expert" labels. I think I'd call them "dreamers."

That's why I put "experts" in scare quotes. While some of them have relevant credentials, others are of the "Buy my book!" variety. Some of the essays are thoughtful and others are pedantic. I also disagreed with at least half of them...and those are the ones I found most thought-provoking.

The argument against the all-volunteer army is a good example. While I agree that citizens/voters need to have at least some skin in our endless wars -- how many of us pay any attention whatsoever to Afghanistan anymore? -- I would not have proposed the draft as a means of achieving that. I would prefer a war tax to pay for them; Americans would have a smaller appetite for adventuring if it were coming directly out of their paycheck. But that doesn't address the segregation of the professional soldier class and our reverence for all things military.