Malaysian Airlines plane crash

[Rip]

I would imagine many of us have heard about the Malaysian flight to China that is missing and likely went down. Figured I would go ahead and start a thread because I think we will be discussing this one some.

I am going to crawl out on a limb here and speculate that I believe this was a terror attack and the plane was probably downed by an bomb or from a hijack or the attempt of one.

The word that two passengers were likely to have been onboard with stolen passports is a huge red flag for me. Amazing given that one if not both were reported stolen TWO years ago. I find it amazing that someone could board with passports stolen that long ago. I hope I am wrong but wanted to get the discussion going as we wait for them to actually locate the wreckage itelf.

Current word is that an oil slick was spotted of the coast of Vietnam so I think the likliehood that it went down is all but certain at this point.

[Markstrink]

I think jumping to hijacking/terrorism is a but much right now. I am not saying that it's impossible but seems a bit of a jump currently. I don't know all the facts that are currently out there right now either. Was it off course? I know they said it had disappeared. And I heard about the oil slick this morning on the news.

[Rip]

I think jumping to hijacking/terrorism is a but much right now. I am not saying that it's impossible but seems a bit of a jump currently. I don't know all the facts that are currently out there right now either. Was it off course? I know they said it had disappeared. And I heard about the oil slick this morning on the news.

Beyond the fact that two of the passports being used were of people not actually on the flight (meaning two people were on the flight were not who they said they were) The plane had reached cruise altitude which makes many equipment failures unlikely to prevent a distress call from the crew.

Radar tracking stations have reported that the plane suddenly dropped 650ft and veered off course before disappearing. That becomes a huge indicator to me right there. Even if the engines failed the plane could glide for about 40 minutes. It obviosuly did not.

While I agree it is a stretch to say it WAS, it is far from a stretch to say it is at least somewhat likely. There are woefully few scenarios that would result in a plane of this model (777-200) vanishing from radar in this manner and not sending out any kind of distress call.

The only other one to crash with major loss of life was the one that hit the seawall in San Francisco which was an obvious pilot error. I think they had one make a hard landing in Heathrow that caused some injuries. Also one had a cockpit fire at the gate that resulted in no injuries. The plane was damaged so bad it was scrapped though.

I would say while not wanting to just assume that it was some time of terror attack that the odds of that are better than any other explanation I can concieve. I know we have some people that have worked in that business however so I am certainly open to any other speculative possible explanations. Anyone have anything?

[Markstrink]

Those are good indicators that something may have been amiss. Wierd that no call was made though. From the pilots. (Shrug)

[malchior]

I would say while not wanting to just assume that it was some time of terror attack that the odds of that are better than any other explanation I can concieve. I know we have some people that have worked in that business however so I am certainly open to any other speculative possible explanations. Anyone have anything?

Most of the aviation experts are leaning terror too in many publications. Government shoot down is possible and has happened in the region but seems less likely. The only "natural" analog is the Air France Airbus incident from 2007 and no one mentioned any weather so that probably isn't too likely either.

[Rip]

Those are good indicators that something may have been amiss. Wierd that no call was made though. From the pilots. (Shrug)

If there was an explosion that compromised the cabin I doubt they would have had a chance.

[Rip]

I would say while not wanting to just assume that it was some time of terror attack that the odds of that are better than any other explanation I can concieve. I know we have some people that have worked in that business however so I am certainly open to any other speculative possible explanations. Anyone have anything?

Most of the aviation experts are leaning terror too in many publications. Government shoot down is possible and has happened in the region but seems less likely. The only "natural" analog is the Air France Airbus incident from 2007 and no one mentioned any weather so that probably isn't too likely either.

Possible but I think a shoot down of a plane at 35K feet would leave some indicators. Not many things can shoot down a plane at that altitude.

Seems to me like they would have photos out there of the two passengers boarding with false passports. I'm pretty sure that all boardings have video surveillence in this day and age.

[Markstrink]

Those are good indicators that something may have been amiss. Wierd that no call was made though. From the pilots. (Shrug)

If there was an explosion that compromised the cabin I doubt they would have had a chance.

My point was really more that of it were terrorism or a hijacking wouldn't someone, be it the "bad guys" or pilots, have sent a message of some sort? Or someone claim responsibility?

[msduncan]

Those are good indicators that something may have been amiss. Wierd that no call was made though. From the pilots. (Shrug)

If there was an explosion that compromised the cabin I doubt they would have had a chance.

My point was really more that of it were terrorism or a hijacking wouldn't someone, be it the "bad guys" or pilots, have sent a message of some sort? Or someone claim responsibility?

This may not have been terrorism. Jury is out. However I'd like to point out the following:

Every time any plane so much as has a hard landing, hundreds of groups claim responsibility. We don't hear about it unless the authorities decide it's legit. So even if someone claimed it at this point we probably still wouldn't know -- especially since we are talking about China.

[Markstrink]

Those are good indicators that something may have been amiss. Wierd that no call was made though. From the pilots. (Shrug)

If there was an explosion that compromised the cabin I doubt they would have had a chance.

My point was really more that of it were terrorism or a hijacking wouldn't someone, be it the "bad guys" or pilots, have sent a message of some sort? Or someone claim responsibility?

This may not have been terrorism. Jury is out. However I'd like to point out the following:

Every time any plane so much as has a hard landing, hundreds of groups claim responsibility. We don't hear about it unless the authorities decide it's legit. So even if someone claimed it at this point we probably still wouldn't know -- especially since we are talking about China.

The thing that's getting to me is exactly the china area of it all. So china and Vietnam, two areas that both nevcesarily like to share information. Guess we will see how it all plays out. I don't know how it all works but with Americans on the plane, wouldn't the state department get their nose in this?

[Rip]

In Austria, the foreign ministry confirmed to NBC News that police had made contact with a citizen who was also on the passenger list, and who reported his passport stolen two years ago.

“We believe that the name and passport were used by an unidentified person to board the plane,” a spokesman for the ministry said.

It is unusual, but not unheard of, for one person to board a plane with a stolen passport. It is very rare for two people with stolen passports to board the same plane, terrorism analysts say.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/missin ... say-n47861

[Jeff V]

Every time I travel overseas, my passport is electronically scanned. I find it hard to believe that stolen passports can't be immediately flagged as such.

[Smoove_B]

The passport thing is rather strange, but I'd imagine there are other reasons (like drug smuggling) people could have been using them. What I find more strange is that the plane just disappeared. That would suggest it's in pieces (to me), but then I'd also think there would be lots of debris visible somewhere. How an entire plane would disappear without transponders or other devices signaling its location I don't understand. And the fact that it happened during the statistically least-likely time is also puzzling. I really don't know what to make of it all but it doesn't sound like we'll have a positive end result regardless.

[malchior]

Every time I travel overseas, my passport is electronically scanned. I find it hard to believe that stolen passports can't be immediately flagged as such.

They were allegedly stolen in Thailand - it seems likely that not all countries share data with each other to make such detection easy.

[Jeff V]

Every time I travel overseas, my passport is electronically scanned. I find it hard to believe that stolen passports can't be immediately flagged as such.

They were allegedly stolen in Thailand - it seems likely that not all countries share data with each other to make such detection easy.

What was the country of issue on those passports? Thailand? Both Thailand and Malaysia always struck me as cooperative players on issues like this.

There ARE international standards when it comes to international airport security. One of the regional carriers I frequently use in the Philippines, Cebu Pacific, had to meet these standards before they were allowed to establish international flights, which they now have to Viet Nam, Hong Kong, Macao, Singapore, and, yes, Kuala Lumpur, among other destinations. I've had it in mind to avail myself of some of the dirt-cheap airfares they offer, possibly to either Viet Nam or Malaysia.

[gilraen]

Every time I travel overseas, my passport is electronically scanned. I find it hard to believe that stolen passports can't be immediately flagged as such.

They were allegedly stolen in Thailand - it seems likely that not all countries share data with each other to make such detection easy.

What was the country of issue on those passports? Thailand? Both Thailand and Malaysia always struck me as cooperative players on issues like this.

No, one passport was Italian, the other one Austrian.

[Rip]

Every time I travel overseas, my passport is electronically scanned. I find it hard to believe that stolen passports can't be immediately flagged as such.

They do have a database but apparently not every airline checks against it.

[Rip]

The passport thing is rather strange, but I'd imagine there are other reasons (like drug smuggling) people could have been using them. What I find more strange is that the plane just disappeared. That would suggest it's in pieces (to me), but then I'd also think there would be lots of debris visible somewhere. How an entire plane would disappear without transponders or other devices signaling its location I don't understand. And the fact that it happened during the statistically least-likely time is also puzzling. I really don't know what to make of it all but it doesn't sound like we'll have a positive end result regardless.

It sounds as if it is likely in the water. The acoustic signal is much harder to detect, especially if it ends up in some type of trench/valley that can keep the sound from going as far sideways as it might otherwise. Also not sure how many of the ships they have looking are equipped to detect the signal. Luckily the area is not super deep water so that will help.

If it went down in the Gulf of Mexico there are many ship equipped to detect it, but off the coast of Vietnam I am not surprised that there probably aren't that many.

[Rip]

Every time I travel overseas, my passport is electronically scanned. I find it hard to believe that stolen passports can't be immediately flagged as such.

They were allegedly stolen in Thailand - it seems likely that not all countries share data with each other to make such detection easy.

What was the country of issue on those passports? Thailand? Both Thailand and Malaysia always struck me as cooperative players on issues like this.

There ARE international standards when it comes to international airport security. One of the regional carriers I frequently use in the Philippines, Cebu Pacific, had to meet these standards before they were allowed to establish international flights, which they now have to Viet Nam, Hong Kong, Macao, Singapore, and, yes, Kuala Lumpur, among other destinations. I've had it in mind to avail myself of some of the dirt-cheap airfares they offer, possibly to either Viet Nam or Malaysia.

Italy and Austria. It has been confirmed that they have both been in their database for a year or more.

[Smoove_B]

It sounds as if it is likely in the water. The acoustic signal is much harder to detect, especially if it ends up in some type of trench/valley that can keep the sound from going as far sideways as it might otherwise. Also not sure how many of the ships they have looking are equipped to detect the signal. Luckily the area is not super deep water so that will help.

If it went down in the Gulf of Mexico there are many ship equipped to detect it, but off the coast of Vietnam I am not surprised that there probably aren't that many.

Not an expert by any means, but from what I have been reading, the average water depth where they likely went down is about 150'. It's certainly possible there are trenches and other anomalies, but in terms of being able to find it rather quickly in the ocean that has to be a positive factor, no?

[Rip]

It sounds as if it is likely in the water. The acoustic signal is much harder to detect, especially if it ends up in some type of trench/valley that can keep the sound from going as far sideways as it might otherwise. Also not sure how many of the ships they have looking are equipped to detect the signal. Luckily the area is not super deep water so that will help.

If it went down in the Gulf of Mexico there are many ship equipped to detect it, but off the coast of Vietnam I am not surprised that there probably aren't that many.

Not an expert by any means, but from what I have been reading, the average water depth where they likely went down is about 150'. It's certainly possible there are trenches and other anomalies, but in terms of being able to find it rather quickly in the ocean that has to be a positive factor, no?

Absolutely, not just that but as far as recovery. Divers will be able to float things up without needing saturation equiment, Atmoshpere suits, or ROVs. Commercial divers usually start using saturation equipment at 200ft waterdepth and can handle up to nearly 2000ft. I was pretty sure the area was somewhat shallow becuase in WW2 submarines were very paranoid patrolling into the SCS because they couldn't get to maximum depth.

[Grifman]

The passport thing is rather strange, but I'd imagine there are other reasons (like drug smuggling) people could have been using them. What I find more strange is that the plane just disappeared. That would suggest it's in pieces (to me), but then I'd also think there would be lots of debris visible somewhere. How an entire plane would disappear without transponders or other devices signaling its location I don't understand. And the fact that it happened during the statistically least-likely time is also puzzling. I really don't know what to make of it all but it doesn't sound like we'll have a positive end result regardless.

Alien abduction. They'll all reappear in 20 years without having aged.

[Isgrimnur]

Send in the feds:

The FBI is deploying agents and technical experts to assist in investigating the disappearance of a Malaysia Airlines jet, based on the American citizenship of three of the passengers aboard the lost flight, a top federal law enforcement official in Washington said Saturday.

[mori]

Real time telemetry sent to Boeing means that engineers know an in flight break up occurred within 45 seconds of the event that befell the aircraft. The cause of which is still up to debate. My bets are on terrorism and onboard bomb.

[Kraken]

It's rather shoddy terrorism if nobody knows who did it or why. Maybe that shoe just hasn't dropped yet?

[Markstrink]

How is there no wreckage either? Or that they are saying there no wreckage yet, that's odd.

[Moat_Man]

It's very fishy that two people on board were using stolen passports. That's my two cents.

[Inverarity]

The uncertainty of what happened to the plane is itself, rather terrifying. Maybe that's why no one has come forward, and maybe they will when its outcome is finally discovered.

Or maybe more people just fly with fake passports than we fully realize.

[DD*]

Now reporting that the stolen passports were used to purchase tickets to Beijing with connecting flights to Europe. Tickets were purchased minutes apart and were numbered sequentially so likely the same person(s).

[Blackhawk]

...all of which could be explained by a couple buying illegal passports from the same source.

[gilraen]

...all of which could be explained by a couple buying illegal passports from the same source.

Well, that doesn't quite work out, both passports were for male names. Although it still could be two friends or relatives buying illegal passports from the same source to try and immigrate into the EU illegally.

[Blackhawk]

...all of which could be explained by a couple buying illegal passports from the same source.

Well, that doesn't quite work out, both passports were for male names. Although it still could be two friends or relatives buying illegal passports from the same source to try and immigrate into the EU illegally.

I was using 'couple' for brevity, but yeah, the point still works. It could still be terrorism, sure, but it isn't the only (or even the simplest) explanation.

[Vorret]

The passport thing is rather strange, but I'd imagine there are other reasons (like drug smuggling) people could have been using them. What I find more strange is that the plane just disappeared. That would suggest it's in pieces (to me), but then I'd also think there would be lots of debris visible somewhere. How an entire plane would disappear without transponders or other devices signaling its location I don't understand. And the fact that it happened during the statistically least-likely time is also puzzling. I really don't know what to make of it all but it doesn't sound like we'll have a positive end result regardless.

Alien abduction. They'll all reappear in 20 years without having aged.

Sure sounds like the plot of Lost to me.

[msduncan]

My problem with the terror angle is the origin and destination of the flights. China has not typically been a target of this style of terror.

Or am I missing something?

[Little Raven]

Terror attacks are only effective if people know you did it. If a rogue group was responsible, I would think we would have heard someone claim it by now.

[Lassr]

My problem with the terror angle is the origin and destination of the flights. China has not typically been a target of this style of terror.

Or am I missing something?

that's what I keep coming back to also. An unlikely target for a terror group and not a peep from one of them as far as we know.

[msduncan]

Terror attacks are only effective if people know you did it. If a rogue group was responsible, I would think we would have heard someone claim it by now.

Again, hundreds of groups claim every time a plane goes down from either accident or terror. The fact that we haven't heard is irrelevant.

[GreenGoo]

Terror attacks are only effective if people know you did it. If a rogue group was responsible, I would think we would have heard someone claim it by now.

Again, hundreds of groups claim every time a plane goes down from either accident or terror. The fact that we haven't heard is irrelevant.

I know several times I've seen claims in the news that were spotty and then refuted at a later date. I'd say it was just good journalism to keep it quiet until it can be verified, but good journalism seems in short supply these days.

And if you're a terrorist, you contact the media, not a government (which would likely keep it as quiet as possible).

I'm not saying your point isn't valid, just that I've seen otherwise, and I wouldn't expect any media to stay quiet.

I'm also not sure "hundreds" lay claim. Or even tens.

[Holman]

How old was the plane? How well does the airline maintain its fleet?

[Vorret]

wasn't that old not sure of the age but unless it completely blew up mid-air a malfunction doesn't make sense we would have gotten at least a distress signal...