Malaysian Airlines plane crash

[Unagi]

a plane went missing, it happens

Um, excuse me my good sir, but I think this must be said: How the FUCK would YOU know? You don't pay attention to this kind of thing at all, and you come in here telling me that this happens? Well - here is a little itty bitty news flash. it actually doesn't. And that it did - that's actually exactly WHY it is interesting.

[Scuzz]

The majority of passengers were Chinese Nationals, which doesn't rule out that people here have family or friends on the plane, but it does make it unlikely.

I don't believe anyone here has mentioned direct ties to the people on the plane, but if I missed it, I do apologize.

And of course I have natural human sympathy for those involved. Awful for the families. The mystery of it kind of outweighs everything else for me, though.

Oh, I thought someone here was directly connected and that's why all the discussion. Just a random plane missing, while tragic, doesn't seem to be all that interesting.

Man you do stay away from anything considered a news source. You couldn't swing a dead cat on TV the last week without hitting a "news" story about this missing plane. In fact the "news" lately has been about how much the "news" has been covering this.

I don't have TV. I don't read newspapers. I've seen mention of it on a couple of websites but it just doesn't seem to be anything worth noting really, a plane went missing, it happens, it's sad, why focus on it?

Let me be the first to tell you we have a black president.

[DD*]

a plane went missing, it happens

Um, excuse me my good sir, but I think this must be said: How the FUCK would YOU know? You don't pay attention to this kind of thing at all, and you come in here telling me that this happens? Well - here is a little itty bitty news flash. it actually doesn't. And that it did - that's actually exactly WHY it is interesting.

[Kurth]

a plane went missing, it happens

Um, excuse me my good sir, but I think this must be said: How the FUCK would YOU know? You don't pay attention to this kind of thing at all, and you come in here telling me that this happens? Well - here is a little itty bitty news flash. it actually doesn't. And that it did - that's actually exactly WHY it is interesting.

+1

Hard to find a more transparent instance.

[stessier]

Let me be the first to tell you we have a black president.

[Richard Pryor]You mean I'm not white?[/Richard Pryor]

[Moliere]

a plane went missing, it happens

Um, excuse me my good sir, but I think this must be said: How the FUCK would YOU know? You don't pay attention to this kind of thing at all, and you come in here telling me that this happens? Well - here is a little itty bitty news flash. it actually doesn't. And that it did - that's actually exactly WHY it is interesting.

10 Mysterious Airplane Disasters includes a couple disappearances.

[GreenGoo]

10 Mysterious Airplane Disasters includes a couple disappearances.

a) if you're footage is in black and white, I'd say that rules it out for this particular conversation. Especially if it happened before radar was invented. Duh.
b) only one of those 10 is even remotely close to what is being discussed here, and that plane was literally stolen off a runway. This example is a standard commercial flight and we know almost nothing about it over a week later.

When we HAVE solved this mystery, you can add it to the 10 in that video. Until then, it's basically unique.

And in this case, I think hyperbole is allowed anyway.

I assume you're just having some fun with mysterious planes incidents, but none of what you linked to are applicable, imo.

[Moliere]

I assume you're just having some fun with mysterious planes incidents, but none of what you linked to are applicable, imo.

Yes.

[GreenGoo]

I assume you're just having some fun with mysterious planes incidents, but none of what you linked to are applicable, imo.

Yes.

That's cool. I was like "wow, this has happened before? I'm going to check it out". Then Amelia appeared and I was like "I've been cheated!"

[JSHAW]

This is something, different.

http://counterjihadreport.com/2014/03/2 ... day-video/

[Carpet_pissr]

It's something alright.

[Rip]

This is something, different.

http://counterjihadreport.com/2014/03/2 ... day-video/

Pretty much what has been my #1 theory from early on. The entire southern IO search is pretty much a snipe hunt.

[Grifman]

The story makes no sense. Do the Paks really want to really want to piss off the Chinese? There would be severe consequences if the Paks were involved. The plane can't be used as a weapon now, the whole world knows about it. And did the plane even have enough fuel to fly around India?

[Rip]

The story makes no sense. Do the Paks really want to really want to piss off the Chinese? There would be severe consequences if the Paks were involved. The plane can't be used as a weapon now, the whole world knows about it. And did the plane even have enough fuel to fly around India?

Why would the Pakistanis piss off the Chinese? You don't really think they are going to say "hey we stole the plane" do you? It is terrorists and they will play in the dark just like they did on Bin Laden. Sure the plane can be used, no government will acknowledge involvement. It will come down to terrorists that have the luxury of not being able to be tied directly to any government. There is a reason the intel services of countries like Iran/Pakistan love to funnel such entities money, as long as the enemies are the same it is all upside with no liability.

If it had enough fuel to reach where they are looking for it now it had plenty enough to get to Pakistan.

I would even surmise that there are a number of people in the US intel community that suspect this. It isn't the kind of thing you say publicly however unless you have absolute proof. If that is what happened it will be used at some point, then it will come out that we had be pursuing leads that indicated that is where it went from early on.

No reason to show their hand now because it would obviously harm the ability to figure it out and would add nothing to the effort to get to the bottom of it. Better to play along with the possibility that doesn't involve a terrorist act especially since I would imagine that is still possible even if unlikely.

[JSHAW]

I read a story last week that the Israeli's think the plane has landed, and is being prepped as a bomb to be used
against them.

IF, and I say IF only in the case that the plane takes off in it's attempt to be used as that weapon, once it appears on radar
with no identification I REALLY hope that whatever airspace it is in it's overseeing Air Force takes the necessary steps to
prevent it from being used as that weapon.

How possible would it be to change the transponder ID's of the plane to that of another airline, repaint the plane
to match another airline and go in undercover of being a plane that's got legitmate business being where it is, going
where it needs to be going, then they change course and try to hatch their plan of ramming it into whatever their
target is?

[Kasey Chang]

How possible would it be to change the transponder ID's of the plane to that of another airline, repaint the plane
to match another airline and go in undercover of being a plane that's got legitmate business being where it is, going
where it needs to be going, then they change course and try to hatch their plan of ramming it into whatever their
target is?

Quite easily, actually. US supposedly considered a plan to bomb Moscow by actually installing lights on bombers that simulate "windows" on the fuselage, and nav lights, and pilots that speak Russian and fly along commercial routes. Any fighters that came up for inspection at night won't see anything unusual. It was mentioned in Tom Clancy novel "Without Remorse".

The trick is doing it out of view of ATC and military radars, and you have to take place of an EXISTING flight.

[Holman]

This is something, different.

http://counterjihadreport.com/2014/03/2 ... day-video/

Um... we might want to consider the source on this one.

"Counterjihadreport" is some guy's blog. The source for the reporting is LIGNET ("Langley Intelligence Group Network," which has nothing to do with Langley as we know it), an arm of Newsmax.com.

Newsmax is the National Enquirer of right-wing editorializing. When they break a story, it's usually something about how Obama's birth certificate proves he's the love child of Jane Fonda and Fidel Castro.

[Carpet_pissr]

This is something, different.

http://counterjihadreport.com/2014/03/2 ... day-video/

Um... we might want to consider the source on this one.

This is our concern, Dude.

[Grifman]

The story makes no sense. Do the Paks really want to really want to piss off the Chinese? There would be severe consequences if the Paks were involved. The plane can't be used as a weapon now, the whole world knows about it. And did the plane even have enough fuel to fly around India?

Why would the Pakistanis piss off the Chinese? You don't really think they are going to say "hey we stole the plane" do you? It is terrorists and they will play in the dark just like they did on Bin Laden. Sure the plane can be used, no government will acknowledge involvement. It will come down to terrorists that have the luxury of not being able to be tied directly to any government. There is a reason the intel services of countries like Iran/Pakistan love to funnel such entities money, as long as the enemies are the same it is all upside.

The problem is that there is no plausible deniability here. Pakistani air defense radar would have picked up the plane. Also, where do terrorists land a plane that plane that big? And where do they get aviation fuel for it? Where do they find pilots that can take off in the plane? How do they use it as a weapon since the whole world knows about it?

[Grifman]

How possible would it be to change the transponder ID's of the plane to that of another airline, repaint the plane
to match another airline and go in undercover of being a plane that's got legitmate business being where it is, going
where it needs to be going, then they change course and try to hatch their plan of ramming it into whatever their
target is?

Quite easily, actually. US supposedly considered a plan to bomb Moscow by actually installing lights on bombers that simulate "windows" on the fuselage, and nav lights, and pilots that speak Russian and fly along commercial routes. Any fighters that came up for inspection at night won't see anything unusual. It was mentioned in Tom Clancy novel "Without Remorse".

The trick is doing it out of view of ATC and military radars, and you have to take place of an EXISTING flight.

I guess that last sentence means it's really not "quite easy", doesn't it?

[Rip]

The story makes no sense. Do the Paks really want to really want to piss off the Chinese? There would be severe consequences if the Paks were involved. The plane can't be used as a weapon now, the whole world knows about it. And did the plane even have enough fuel to fly around India?

Why would the Pakistanis piss off the Chinese? You don't really think they are going to say "hey we stole the plane" do you? It is terrorists and they will play in the dark just like they did on Bin Laden. Sure the plane can be used, no government will acknowledge involvement. It will come down to terrorists that have the luxury of not being able to be tied directly to any government. There is a reason the intel services of countries like Iran/Pakistan love to funnel such entities money, as long as the enemies are the same it is all upside.

The problem is that there is no plausible deniability here. Pakistani air defense radar would have picked up the plane. Also, where do terrorists land a plane that plane that big? And where do they get aviation fuel for it? Where do they find pilots that can take off in the plane? How do they use it as a weapon since the whole world knows about it?

The problem is there are many in the Pakistani defense and other government agencies that are ordered to look the other way thanks to the intel service. Unless you believe they really didn't know Bin Laden was there all that time, which I do not. There is aviation fuel all over Pakistan, small problem. As for pilots it seems they already have two and it isn't like they had a hard time getting enough pilot skills to fly those jets into the trade center. While not easy it also isn't unbelievably hard to fly a commercial jet. All you need is one pilot, some simulator software and the time to teach some more.

The last one is the only challenging problem. Shouldn't be that crazy hard to fly it around at night as stealing it in the first place has shown. Just not sure how they will use it as a weapon. Perhaps just use it as a drone and crash it into one of the larger US troop bases in Afghan before we pull everyone out.

Ideally they would like to use it to attack Israel, but if I know that won't work they probably do as well.

[Grifman]

The story makes no sense. Do the Paks really want to really want to piss off the Chinese? There would be severe consequences if the Paks were involved. The plane can't be used as a weapon now, the whole world knows about it. And did the plane even have enough fuel to fly around India?

Why would the Pakistanis piss off the Chinese? You don't really think they are going to say "hey we stole the plane" do you? It is terrorists and they will play in the dark just like they did on Bin Laden. Sure the plane can be used, no government will acknowledge involvement. It will come down to terrorists that have the luxury of not being able to be tied directly to any government. There is a reason the intel services of countries like Iran/Pakistan love to funnel such entities money, as long as the enemies are the same it is all upside.

The problem is that there is no plausible deniability here. Pakistani air defense radar would have picked up the plane. Also, where do terrorists land a plane that plane that big? And where do they get aviation fuel for it? Where do they find pilots that can take off in the plane? How do they use it as a weapon since the whole world knows about it?

The problem is there are many in the Pakistani defense and other government agencies that are ordered to look the other way thanks to the intel service. Unless you believe they really didn't know Bin Laden was there all that time, which I do not. There is aviation fuel all over Pakistan, small problem. As for pilots it seems they already have two and it isn't like they had a hard time getting enough pilot skills to fly those jets into the trade center. While not easy it also isn't unbelievably hard to fly a commercial jet. All you need is one pilot, some simulator software and the time to teach some more.

The last one is the only challenging problem. Shouldn't be that crazy hard to fly it around at night as stealing it in the first place has shown.

1) You still haven't explained how Pakistan explains how the plane got there without them knowing about it. Please address this question.

2) Jet fuel would only be found at an airfield and enough to fly the plane any long distance would not be easy to steal. Again how does Pakistan explain a stolen plane at an airfield large enough to land it at without their military knowing about?

3) It is aLot harder to fly than you make it out to be and as 9-11 showed, learning to do more than just flying the plane isn't easy. Take offs aren't easy and even with software you need an instructor.

4) Duh, with the advent of radar, night flying is irrelevant. You don't need to see a plane to know that its a problem if it's unknown, doesn't have a transponder, and can't properly identify itself.

Your responses are inadequate and don't really address the problems.

[Rip]

The story makes no sense. Do the Paks really want to really want to piss off the Chinese? There would be severe consequences if the Paks were involved. The plane can't be used as a weapon now, the whole world knows about it. And did the plane even have enough fuel to fly around India?

Why would the Pakistanis piss off the Chinese? You don't really think they are going to say "hey we stole the plane" do you? It is terrorists and they will play in the dark just like they did on Bin Laden. Sure the plane can be used, no government will acknowledge involvement. It will come down to terrorists that have the luxury of not being able to be tied directly to any government. There is a reason the intel services of countries like Iran/Pakistan love to funnel such entities money, as long as the enemies are the same it is all upside.

The problem is that there is no plausible deniability here. Pakistani air defense radar would have picked up the plane. Also, where do terrorists land a plane that plane that big? And where do they get aviation fuel for it? Where do they find pilots that can take off in the plane? How do they use it as a weapon since the whole world knows about it?

The problem is there are many in the Pakistani defense and other government agencies that are ordered to look the other way thanks to the intel service. Unless you believe they really didn't know Bin Laden was there all that time, which I do not. There is aviation fuel all over Pakistan, small problem. As for pilots it seems they already have two and it isn't like they had a hard time getting enough pilot skills to fly those jets into the trade center. While not easy it also isn't unbelievably hard to fly a commercial jet. All you need is one pilot, some simulator software and the time to teach some more.

The last one is the only challenging problem. Shouldn't be that crazy hard to fly it around at night as stealing it in the first place has shown.

1) You still haven't explained how Pakistan explains how the plane got there without them knowing about it. Please address this question.

2) Jet fuel would only be found at an airfield and enough to fly the plane any long distance would not be easy to steal. Again how does Pakistan explain a stolen plane at an airfield large enough to land it at without their military knowing about?

3) It is aLot harder to fly than you make it out to be and as 9-11 showed, learning to do more than just flying the plane isn't easy. Take offs aren't easy and even with software you need an instructor.

4) Duh, with the advent of radar, night flying is irrelevant. You don't need to see a plane to know that its a problem if it's unknown, doesn't have a transponder, and can't properly identify itself.

Your responses are inadequate and don't really address the problems.

1. Why do they have to explain it? To get there it would have to fly past China/India do they need to explain it? They just say we didn't see it. Perhaps it flew under radar, who knows. The only way they need to explain is if it showed up on radar and didn't tell anyone.

2. I think you overestimate how hard it would be for groups that are able to get explosives/weapons/ammo etc all the time. Jet fuel isn't that hard to steal, especially when you have friends in the government.

3. They have two good instructor in the two guys that flew the plane there in the first place.

4. It flew there in the first place, so not impossible. You have WAY more faith in central aasian radar operators and procedures to identify aircraft than they deserve. It isn't even close to the same as flying around the US in an unidentified plane. Look at how many drug planes fly in and out of South America all the time and get by with it more than they get caught.

This world of being impossible to fly a plane around without people seeing and/or picking you up on radar and sending fighters to identify you just doesn't exist. This is real life not the movies. Rogue planes smuggle stuff all over the globe routinely.

[Grifman]

1. Why do they have to explain it? To get there it would have to fly past China/India do they need to explain it? They just say we didn't see it. Perhaps it flew under radar, who knows. The only way they need to explain is if it showed up on radar and didn't tell anyone.

Now you are getting even more crazy! You want me to believe that the plane flew over India and China and Pakistan without getting noticed? That's absurd! There's no reason it even got close to China and my assumption under your theory is that they flew around India over the Indian Ocean. But the idea the you have is even worse.

But the reason that they have to explain it is that Pakistan has an air defense system that should have spotted the plane. The idea that a plane came in from over the Indian Ocean and landed without their air defense system seeing is ludicrous, unless their military wants to look stupid and say, Hey Indians, just attack us from the ocean, we'll never see you. The Chinese would NEVER buy this story. Never. In. A. Million. Years. They aren't stupid which you seem to think they are.

2. I think you overestimate how hard it would be for groups that are able to get explosives/weapons/ammo etc all the time. Jet fuel isn't that hard to steal, especially when you have friends in the government.

We aren't talking about explosives/weapons/ammo. We're talking about enough fuel for a very large jet liner to fly a very long way - totally different thing. Over 50,000 gallons. You think some airlines isn't going to notice 50,000 gallons missing? Just asserting that it is easy doesn't make it true. Please provided evidence rather than mere handwaving.

3. They have two good instructor in the two guys that flew the plane there in the first place.

LOL! So now they have to wait to be further trained by both the pilot and co-pilot when there is no, absolutely no evidence linking them to any terrorist group. No emails, no phone records, no nothing. What did they use, telepathy?

4. It flew there in the first place, so not impossible.

LOL! You can't rely on a point you haven't even proven yet to prove a subsequent point!

You have WAY more faith in central aasian radar operators and procedures to identify aircraft than they deserve.

It's not central Asian radar they have to fool. It's their target which is presumably Israel or US interests. You think they won't be on alert and unable to deal with this? You don't think Israel identifies every single flight that gets even near their borders?

It isn't even close to the same as flying around the US in an unidentified plane. Look at how many drug planes fly in and out of South America all the time and get by with it more than they get caught.

This is the perfect example of your argumentation and logic. You take small aircraft flying in South America an equate them to a large jetliner. Your example is ludicrous.

This world of being impossible to fly a plane around without people seeing and/or picking you up on radar and sending fighters to identify you just doesn't exist. This is real life not the movies. Rogue planes smuggle stuff all over the globe routinely.

Funny, the Thai's and Malaysian military radars both picked it up. Rogue planes are not large jetliners, they are usually small prop planes. Surely you know that, right? Real life show that large jetliners get picked up on radar - this is real life, not the movies, you know.

And since the Thai and Malaysian military radars picked it up, exactly how is Pakistan air defense going to explain their failure to do so since they should be much better given their situation with India? Explain that?

[Grifman]

Big news update on CNN TV though not their website yet. Previous information was wrong - there was NOT a preprogrammed turn entered in the nav systems before the "goodnight" message, per the ACAIRs data. Previous info was wrong.

[Isgrimnur]

At this point, are they sure that there is a plane missing?

[Kasey Chang]

Big news update on CNN TV though not their website yet. Previous information was wrong - there was NOT a preprogrammed turn entered in the nav systems before the "goodnight" message, per the ACAIRs data. Previous info was wrong.

Sounds like it helps my "convenient fire" theory.

Okay, bad joke. Morbid topic.

[Rip]

Guess we will just have to wait till it shows up Grifman then you can explain how it happened.

[Kraken]

The conspiracy theories are going to endure regardless of how this plays out. If they find debris in the Indian Ocean today some people will claim that it was planted or misidentified to bring the story to a close. After 2 weeks it has taken on a life of its own.

[Holman]

Right. The story stopped being about an actual plane some time ago. Now it's an experiment in narrative.

[Pyperkub]

Did anyone read/reference Stephenson's Reamde in this thread?

[Kasey Chang]

Latest update... Chinese maritime patrol planes claimed they spotted 2 large and many small objects within several km. Chinese icebreaker that just came from from Antartica rescue is moving to the scene. Apparently Japan is also sending planes. There's a whole armada of planes over that patch of ocean.

Seems this latest "twist" about "not a programmed turn" was mainly based on altitude data... plane dropped to 12k ft before disappearing. Pilots say this is a common practice if plane cannot communicate as they need to drop out of the normal flight corridors.

[Rip]

Northern route thrown out, Inmarsat now certain of the southern corridor.

[LawBeefaroni]

Look at how many drug planes fly in and out of South America all the time and get by with it more than they get caught.

CIA pilots get a little help, you know.

[LawBeefaroni]

Mystery solve with most awesome certainty!

Malaysia's Prime Minister Najib Razak says new analysis of satellite data in the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 indicates that the plane went down in the southern Indian Ocean.

Razak said at a news conference Monday that he was briefed by the U.K. Air Accidents Investigation Branch about data calculations conducted by British satellite company Inmarsat.

“Based on their new analysis… MH370 flew along the southern corridor and that its last position was in the middle of the Indian Ocean west of Perth,” Razak said. “This is a remote location, far from any possible landing sites. It is therefore with deep sadness and regret that I must inform you that, according to this new data, that flight MH370 ended in the southern Indian Ocean.”

Sounds perfectly plausable but Najib, please don't take offense if I wait for a second opinion.

[JSHAW]

Mystery solve with most awesome certainty!

Malaysia's Prime Minister Najib Razak says new analysis of satellite data in the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 indicates that the plane went down in the southern Indian Ocean.

Razak said at a news conference Monday that he was briefed by the U.K. Air Accidents Investigation Branch about data calculations conducted by British satellite company Inmarsat.

“Based on their new analysis… MH370 flew along the southern corridor and that its last position was in the middle of the Indian Ocean west of Perth,” Razak said. “This is a remote location, far from any possible landing sites. It is therefore with deep sadness and regret that I must inform you that, according to this new data, that flight MH370 ended in the southern Indian Ocean.”

Sounds perfectly plausable but Najib, please don't take offense if I wait for a second opinion.

The skeptic in me wonders how many days pass before they give us another update on this final version where it's stated they REALLY don't know where the plane crashed at.

[Bakhtosh]

This just doesn't add up. If the plane dropped to 12k ft, people on board would have known immediately that something was wrong, and at that altitude, cell phones would work. Why didn't anyone call? They crossed over some areas of Thailand & Malaysia that should have had good cell coverage. The only explanation I can think of is that everyone on board was dead, or possibly someone(s) had cell phone jammers on board.

If everyone on board was dead as a result of fire/smoke, the pilots would have quickly succumbed to the same effects. Their oxygen supply is very limited (and you're not supposed to use oxygen during a fire). Smoke hoods are only good for a brief time.

Does anyone have a link to the latest timeline of what the plane did, including altitude changes?

Here's a theory that is plausible without any nefarious actions:
Front tire overheats and eventually combusts about 1 hour into the flight (this has happened before...just not on the 777).
The cabin and cockpit experiences massive electrical failure as a result of the fire.
At the same time, smoke from the burning rubber fills the plane.
Pilots climb to maximum altitude to attempt to extinguish the fire (or climb is unintentional).
Whether from smoke inhalation or lack of oxygen, everyone in passenger compartment perishes.
Aircraft stalls and quickly descends before pilots regain control.
Upon realizing that they're responsible for the deaths of over 200, pilots discuss what to do next and decide to fly plane until it runs out of fuel and "go down with the ship".

[JSHAW]

The plane was carrying 400 lbs. of lithium-ion batteries. Hazardous cargo, which wasn't something that was immediately reported.

[Bakhtosh]

The plane was carrying 400 lbs. of lithium-ion batteries. Hazardous cargo, which wasn't something that was immediately reported.

True - I forgot about that. I heard it once and no one has mentioned it since.

[LawBeefaroni]

This just doesn't add up. If the plane dropped to 12k ft, people on board would have known immediately that something was wrong, and at that altitude, cell phones would work. Why didn't anyone call? They crossed over some areas of Thailand & Malaysia that should have had good cell coverage. The only explanation I can think of is that everyone on board was dead, or possibly someone(s) had cell phone jammers on board.

My phone is sketchy in the middle of a 1st world urban city at 160 feet. I'm not sure why we should assume that cell phones possibly not even on the same network would work at 12K feet in the middle of open ocean or above rural areas. Also, it's my observation that cell networks are directional with preference to the ground, not 360 degrees including areal coverage. 12K feet up seems like a big stretch.

However, even if you assume that they could call, in an emergency situation with communication problems, it's possible that the "no-electronics" order went out to avoid further problems.

The plane was carrying 400 lbs. of lithium-ion batteries. Hazardous cargo, which wasn't something that was immediately reported.

They can be hazardous but it's not out of the ordinary to have them on board. Those are the same types of batteries used in airplanes, EV autos, and cell phones. They're everywhere. As cargo they may have been improperly packed or secured (though they weren't, according to the airline) but it still doesn't fully explain why the plane flew off course and then disappeared/crashed. LION batteries don't just spontaneously blow up. If they did, we'd have a lot more blown up planes and pockets and cars.