The Fermi Paradox ...life in the galaxy explained

[Kraken]

Just sayin'

"Whether an advanced spacefaring civilization uses the large amounts of energy from its galaxy's stars to power computers, space flight, communication, or something we can't yet imagine, fundamental thermodynamics tells us that this energy must be radiated away as heat in the mid-infrared wavelengths," Wright said. "This same basic physics causes your computer to radiate heat while it is turned on."

Yeah, I thought of this thread when I read the article. A galaxy-spanning civilization that "uses all of the starlight in a galaxy" is a lot bigger scale than I realized we were talking about. I was thinking of detecting individual planetary heat signatures within our galaxy.

This survey indicates that there's not a Borg or Dalek civilization out there, as far as we can tell.

[Isgrimnur]

Yo momma's so fat that scientists mistook her for a Kardashev Type III supercivilization.

[noxiousdog]

Just sayin'

"Whether an advanced spacefaring civilization uses the large amounts of energy from its galaxy's stars to power computers, space flight, communication, or something we can't yet imagine, fundamental thermodynamics tells us that this energy must be radiated away as heat in the mid-infrared wavelengths," Wright said. "This same basic physics causes your computer to radiate heat while it is turned on."

Yeah, I thought of this thread when I read the article. A galaxy-spanning civilization that "uses all of the starlight in a galaxy" is a lot bigger scale than I realized we were talking about. I was thinking of detecting individual planetary heat signatures within our galaxy.

This survey indicates that there's not a Borg or Dalek civilization out there, as far as we can tell.

Agreed, but this particular one is looking at other galaxies, not things within our own.

[Kraken]

We haven't found evidence of other civilizations because we haven't looked hard enough.

But how much of the skies have researchers scoured for such radio signals? Along with his colleagues, Kanodia created a rigorous mathematical framework to analyze past SETI searches. The researchers looked at eight separate parameters, including the amount of sky a telescope searched, the sensitivity of the searching observatory and the power of a potential signal. They concluded that, of the total possible search space in which a signal could have hid, previous SETI searches have examined roughly 5.8 times 10 raised to the minus 18, or about a quintillionth, of the available space, which is itself merely a miniscule part of the huge range of potential bandwidths that scientists could search through.
...
However, even if we searched both optical and radio wavelengths thoroughly, that would likely represent only a small sliver of the potential search space. In the course of their history, extraterrestrials might have come across many phenomena that humans have not, some of which might be useful for generating signals, Kanodia said. "In all probability, there is still a lot of physics that we have not yet deciphered or understood," he said. "If you were trying to communicate with a caveman with a walkie-talkie, you would not receive any reply."

The results are heartening, said Jill Tarter, an astronomer and former director of the Center for SETI Research, who has done similar calculations in the past. Her results suggested that total SETI searches were akin to looking at a drinking glass's worth of seawater and concluding that there were no fish in the ocean.

[Jaymon]

I believe its because of the machine aspect. Bodies and lifeforms are squishy, short lived, and often driven by impulses such as mating and hunger. the only folks who have gone out exploring and colonizing are machines, either through conscious AI, or a lifeform consciousness that has been uploaded into a machine. They have found us already, and are waiting. As soon as we launch a self aware machine into space, then it will be welcomed into the fold. until then, its just watching and waiting, calculating the odds that we will get off this rock before we destroy ourselves.

[Jaymann]

Saw an interesting theory of why life, and intelligent life, might be so rare - lack of phosphorus. Phosphorus makes up only 1% of humans, but it is an essential component of DNA. It is relatively abundant in the earth's crust, but extremely rare in the rest of the solar system, and most of the galaxy. Sure, life could certainly take another path, but it would not be as easy, and possibly not as likely to advance.

This lack of phosphorus could even have a detrimental effect on any human efforts to expand throughout the cosmos if we are forced to bring our own.

[Isgrimnur]

Phys.org

With the power of ALMA, which allowed a detailed look into the star-forming region AFGL 5142, astronomers could pinpoint where phosphorus-bearing molecules, like phosphorus monoxide, form. New stars and planetary systems arise in cloud-like regions of gas and dust in between stars, making these interstellar clouds the ideal places to start the search for life's building blocks.

The ALMA observations showed that phosphorus-bearing molecules are created as massive stars are formed. Flows of gas from young massive stars open up cavities in interstellar clouds. Molecules containing phosphorus form on the cavity walls, through the combined action of shocks and radiation from the infant star. The astronomers have also shown that phosphorus monoxide is the most abundant phosphorus-bearing molecule in the cavity walls.

After searching for this molecule in star-forming regions with ALMA, the European team moved on to a Solar System object: the now-famous comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The idea was to follow the trail of these phosphorus-bearing compounds. If the cavity walls collapse to form a star, particularly a less-massive one like the Sun, phosphorus monoxide can freeze out and get trapped in the icy dust grains that remain around the new star. Even before the star is fully formed, those dust grains come together to form pebbles, rocks and ultimately comets, which become transporters of phosphorus monoxide.

[Jaymann]

Here is an excellent take on the question. If we are rapidly approaching AI ascendancy, why aren't we seeing AI probes everywhere?

[Daehawk]

What if we are the frontrunner in our galaxy. We are the most technically advanced species in the galaxy. Others are at stone age or old west levels.

[Holman]

What if we are the frontrunner in our galaxy. We are the most technically advanced species in the galaxy. Others are are stone age or old west levels.

That's the most optimistic solution, although rather than "modern vs stone age" we should probably think on a scale of "modern civilization vs single-celled animals" or even "modern civilization vs chemical mix with some potential for life to develop eventually."

But then the problem becomes "Why are we the first?"

The universe is very very old. Our solar system wasn't particularly early in forming planets that could potentially support life. Given the huge number of much earlier planetary environments that could have supported life, the question comes back to "Where are the aliens?"

[Anonymous Bosch]

The universe is very very old.

Perhaps, but that's a matter of perspective. Because as observed in Jaymann's video above, "humanity evolved incredibly early during the history of the Universe. Right now, the Universe is 13 billion years old. But stars will continue burning for the next hundred trillion years."

[Daehawk]

We could be the first ones .

[Blackhawk]

We are the Ancients.

We are the source of the mysterious runs that the Picards of the future will wonder about after we've disappeared: "Why would they build this big wall along this river here?"

[Kraken]

I think it's more a matter of distance and the pokey speed of light. According to one of the studies that he cites, technological civilizations are, on average, 17,000 light years apart. Human signals extend to a sphere 120 LY away. In that model, it will take another 16,880 years before our closest neighbor can detect us. If they decide to send us a hello, it will be 33,880 years before we receive it...unless they've discovered FTL communication, in which case we won't detect their signal because we don't have that technology and in fact believe it to be impossible. Our nearest advanced neighbor's civilization would have to be 17,000 years old for us to detect it.

The galaxy is probably lousy with life, but complex life is very rare and sentience much much rarer. The percentage of those intelligent beings that are technologically inclined is vanishingly small. Aquatic beings might have intellects that put ours to shame, but they are never going to build machines or even advanced tools without access to fire. So I doubt that we're alone, but we're probably going to remain lonely for a long, long time. In the next couple of decades we'll have a better idea of how many life-bearing worlds are out there, thanks to new telescopes, and within the next century we'll have a better idea of whether there's any other multicellular life in our own solar system, thanks to missions to Mars and the gas giants' moons. Point being that we've just barely begun to look, so it's hubris to conclude that we're unique.

[malchior]

I think it's more a matter of distance and the pokey speed of light. According to one of the studies that he cites, technological civilizations are, on average, 17,000 light years apart. Human signals extend to a sphere 120 LY away.

Picking this out because the idea of a sphere is probably not a correct way to think of the problem. This is a reason for the quietness the video above doesn't consider. Our radio coverage as seen externally isn't spherical. Earth isn't a star broadcasting EM radiation in every direction. Instead, most of our space communications are highly directional.

The majority of our non-directional terrestrial radio communications are filtered by the atmosphere. Even if they weren't they'd still be coming from relatively small areas and be constantly in motion. You could imagine a strong enough signal traveling in an arc sweeping out of the face of the earth in only one direction. That arc would be in relative motion with the rotation of the earth, the earth in orbit, the sun in orbit of the galactic center, etc.

The consequence is that if I was in a fixed spot in the cosmos and some signal from earth happened to be strong enough to reach me it might only appear for a bare moment. Maybe not even long enough to recognize as a signal.

[Kraken]

Good point. My argument still holds, but it's not like aliens are going to be able to watch Leave It to Beaver. At most they'll get "Ward, I'm worried about the Beav."

[Isgrimnur]

Y’all couldn’t get a good signal if there was a hill in the way. Aliens don’t have rabbit ears big enough.

[Scraper]

My best guess is either Kraken's theory of time and distance being a barrier or just as likely in my mind there are advanced aliens capable of visiting us but they adhere to a Star Trek like Prime Directive. The main alternatives to those two theories are frightening.

[Holman]

The universe is very very old.

Perhaps, but that's a matter of perspective. Because as observed in Jaymann's video above, "humanity evolved incredibly early during the history of the Universe. Right now, the Universe is 13 billion years old. But stars will continue burning for the next hundred trillion years."

We may have evolved early in the entire universal timescale, but we came along late enough that the same process could have developed life elsewhere over and over. Given the number of planets out there, it really *should* have. (Hence Fermi's question.)

[Chraolic]

We may have evolved early in the entire universal timescale, but we came along late enough that the same process could have developed life elsewhere over and over. Given the number of planets out there, it really *should* have. (Hence Fermi's question.)

I mean, it probably has, we just don't know about it. Our current degree of space exploration is at about the same level as opening the door to the back yard and deducing that giraffes cannot exist because we don't see any.

[Holman]

We may have evolved early in the entire universal timescale, but we came along late enough that the same process could have developed life elsewhere over and over. Given the number of planets out there, it really *should* have. (Hence Fermi's question.)

I mean, it probably has, we just don't know about it. Our current degree of space exploration is at about the same level as opening the door to the back yard and deducing that giraffes cannot exist because we don't see any.

Fermi doesn't stumble on our not being able to seek out aliens, though. Rather, the math suggests that *many* intelligent species would have had time to settle our entire galaxy by now.

It's not "why haven't we found them?" but "why haven't they found/contacted/killed us yet?"

[Daehawk]

We're kinda far out in an arm. Might be we just aren't worth the effort to get to.

[Holman]

We're kinda far out in an arm. Might be we just aren't worth the effort to get to.

The thing about the speed-of-light barrier is that if it's actually possible to get anywhere, it's possible to get everywhere.

[Kraken]

We're kinda far out in an arm. Might be we just aren't worth the effort to get to.

The thing about the speed-of-light barrier is that if it's actually possible to get anywhere, it's possible to get everywhere.

Also, the galactic core is less hospitable to our kind of life due to the proximity of stars there. Lots of cosmic radiation, and high-energy events like supernovas are more likely to pop near one's homeworld. Trantor probably isn't near the center of the galaxy.

[disarm]

There's also the 'Dark Forest Theory' to consider.

This concept was put to great use in The Three Body Problem and the rest of that book trilogy.

[Daehawk]

The internet says.....

The Fermi paradox is the discrepancy between the lack of conclusive evidence of advanced extraterrestrial life and the apparently high likelihood of its existence. As a 2015 article put it, "If life is so easy, someone from somewhere must have come calling by now."

[Victoria Raverna]

Maybe it is because we're living in a simulator and advanced extraterrestrial lives are not part of it. They are probably part of a DLC which the owner of the simulator didn't purchase.

That'll also explain quantum entanglement. It is just a glitch or bug that causes two or more variables point to the same memory location which cause changing one variable change the others no matter how far they're from each other in the simulated universe.

[Daehawk]

Beep beep wipe your butt.

[Carpet_pissr]

What if we are the frontrunner in our galaxy. We are the most technically advanced species in the galaxy. Others are are stone age or old west levels.

But then the problem becomes "Why are we the first?"

Sometimes I wonder if that question is related to these questions:
Why did the universe appear?
How? How did Something come out of Nothing?
Did time and space exist before The Universe existed?

[Scraper]

What if we are the frontrunner in our galaxy. We are the most technically advanced species in the galaxy. Others are are stone age or old west levels.

But then the problem becomes "Why are we the first?"

Sometimes I wonder if that question is related to these questions:
Why did the universe appear?
How? How did Something come out of Nothing?
Did time and space exist before The Universe existed?

The answer to all of your questions is obvious. 42!

[Anonymous Bosch]

What if we are the frontrunner in our galaxy. We are the most technically advanced species in the galaxy. Others are are stone age or old west levels.

But then the problem becomes "Why are we the first?"

Sometimes I wonder if that question is related to these questions:
Why did the universe appear?
How? How did Something come out of Nothing?
Did time and space exist before The Universe existed?

My personal favourite answer to many of these questions is provided by Isaac Asimov, in one of his best-known and most acclaimed short stories…

Isaac Asimov - The Last Question Reading